Preferred Early Season Depth Chart? (not including Boozer of course)

So I’m going to break this down a little differently.

PG: It’ll either be Rose or Watson — as you mentioned, Mario, quite obvious.

SG: This is where the real logjam is. Between the two guard positions, there are 96 available minutes. Derrick will probably play around 37 of those a game, which leaves 59 minutes to be split between Watson, Brewer, Korver, and Bogans. Watson, given that he’ll be playing at least the 11 minutes Derrick is out, will preferably average around 15-20 minutes, which would mean a backcourt at times of Rose and Watson — an efficient way to relieve Derrick of some of the ball-handling duties throughout the game.

Let’s give Watson a solid 19 minutes a game, leaving 40 minutes for Brewer, Korver, and Bogans. Now, ideally, I’d love to leave Korver out there for 25 and have him just shoot the figurative pants off our opponent on any given night when they collapse on Derrick (and later, Boozer), but leaving Korver out there for long periods of time is like going to one of those sketchy taco stands in Tijuana — its risky. It could be amazing or it could lead to massive hemorrhaging (of points in basketball, of liquid evil in real life). To be fair, Korver is a little too maligned for his defense, which is not good by any means, but is somewhat serviceable against an average NBA guard — definitely not Thibs-approved yet though. Ultimately, I think Korver tops out at 14 of the guard minutes (and as will be later discussed, around 6 at SF). This leaves 26 for Brewer and Bogans, and honestly, I hope that is given to Brewer.

Ronnie Brewer vs. Keith Bogans really wouldn’t be a question if it weren’t for 1. Bogans’ shooting in the preseason, which is, in every aspect, a statistical anomaly and 2. Brewer’s struggles with his hamstring. We can assume Bogans’s shooting will regress to its career logistic regression, which is an awful sub-40 FG% with a sub-35 3PT% and hopefully Brewer will heal up soon. As defenders, they are about on par with each other — Bogans’ defensive rating the past few years has hovered around 105 while Brewer’s has hovered around 106-107 (excluding his disastrous Memphis stint last year). Yet the offensive ratings really highlight the benefit of having Brewer on the floor — Bogans’ career offensive rating: 103, Brewer’s career offensive rating: 116. Of course, Brewer’s could be so high because of Sloan’s uber-efficient offense in Utah, but so far the Bulls have installed a loose version of the flex offense, which features the same type of cutting and movement as the Jazz system. Brewer’s ability to excel within this system while also being a decent defender, and perhaps a great defender under Thibs, gives him the unequivocal edge. Yes, Brewer’s shooting is extremely shaky, but his ability to cut and finish, along with the emergence of Deng’s ability to stretch the floor mitigates this problem somewhat. I’m okay with Bogans getting more of the minutes at the start, but come playoff time, it’ll do immeasurably more good to have a confident, comfortable Brewer wreaking havoc on the court than an aging Keith Bogans.

SF: 48 minutes total, Luol for 38 of them. 10 minutes left to give to Korver and James Johnson. Korver’s Player Efficiency Rating is much higher as a SG than a SF (17.8 vs 13.1) so I’d like to have him stick to his most efficient, most productive position as much as possible. As you mentioned, JJ has really stepped up his game and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. Why not give him some minutes at SG and SF early in the season to see what he can do this year? Those SG minutes would theoretically come from the Bogans/Brewer minutes.

PF/C: 96 minutes total. Taj – 30 minutes, Noah – 35, Asik – 20, Thomas – 11. I say we give Asik as many minutes as possible early in the season. If we’re going to do well down the stretch, we’re going to need him. We know what we’re going to get from the veteran Thomas, and it would serve us well to rest his legs throughout the season somewhat.

On a final note, I hope we can find some kind of consistent second unit that can be built up throughout the course of the season, seeing that there doesn’t seem to be one yet. I think one of the best ways for Thibs to ensure success down the stretch is to develop a second unit with good chemistry and a formula for putting points on our side of the board and preventing points on the other side. No one would have looked at the Suns’ bench last year and thought to themselves, “This is one of the best second units in the game”, but come playoff time, they single-handedly won games for that team. Why? Because Alvin Gentry built them up throughout the season. Never underestimate the importance of a coach valuing the pieces on his bench.

I’m ready for the Bulls to start gunnin’ down opponents. Luol for three all day, everyday!

He’s not fast enough to guard SF regularly and he’s not big enough to guard guys at the PF. He has a place though. He’s faster than the big 4’s and he’s bigger than the quick 3’s so he should cause matchup problems of his own…. point is he shouldn’t be playing the 2.