January Advanced Statistics
by Scotter on Jan 31, 2010 4:42 PM CST
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I figured there might still be some interest in this. If people really want the splits from the previous months I'll put them together.
| Janurary 2010 | USG% | TO% | eFG% | TS% | ORtg | DRtg | Poss | OR% | DR% | TRB% | AS% | MIN | BLK% | STL% | FTM/FGA |
| TEAM | 20 | 14 | 49 | 53 | 108 | 103 | 1437 | 27 | 74 | 52 | 53 | 3675 | 10 | 7 | 21 |
| OPP | 20 | 13 | 47 | 50 | 103 | 108 | 1439 | 26 | 73 | 48 | 53 | 3675 | 8 | 7 | 21 |
| Deng | 21 | 11 | 48 | 52 | 106 | 106 | 235 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 563 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| Rose | 29 | 13 | 51 | 53 | 106 | 107 | 316 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 31 | 560 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| Hinrich | 18 | 15 | 48 | 50 | 102 | 105 | 177 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 22 | 504 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| Noah | 20 | 15 | 53 | 61 | 121 | 98 | 165 | 13 | 28 | 21 | 9 | 417 | 4 | 1 | 40 |
| Salmons | 15 | 8 | 58 | 61 | 122 | 107 | 122 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 417 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
| Gibson | 17 | 9 | 44 | 50 | 111 | 102 | 127 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 5 | 391 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Thomas | 18 | 20 | 44 | 47 | 90 | 96 | 123 | 7 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 341 | 6 | 3 | 20 |
| Miller | 18 | 13 | 49 | 58 | 116 | 103 | 99 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 278 | 2 | 2 | 38 |
| Johnson | 15 | 33 | 42 | 45 | 76 | 102 | 36 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 124 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| Pargo | 27 | 16 | 31 | 40 | 85 | 110 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 28 |
The only one of the Four Factors that's really different in January from the season statistics is that the Bulls shot better. Rebounding, free throw, and turnover rates are all basically the same on offense and defense, and defensive eFG% isn't significantly different from the season statistics either. The Bulls just bumped up their eFG% to just under the league average, which was enough to give the team a league average offense to go with a top ten defense.
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I find it pretty staggering that
despite this nice run, Salmons was the only non-interior player to shoot efficiently. Noah’s 61 TS% on 20% USG (!!) is more impressive than I expected. 13.4ppg in 29.8mpg for the month, not bad for a guy who averaged 6ppg last year.
Noah's been getting to the line a lot more. That has certainly helped the TS%.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2010 7:09 PM CST up reply actions
It's been an interesting year for Noah.
He started out low USG% and very efficient like last season then his USG% increased and his efficiency dropped, and now it looks like he may have made the adjustment to the increased USG%. It will be interesting to see if cans sustain what he did in January.
Noah has improved this season in the two areas that he needed to improve in. His defensive rebounding took a big jump. That’s not unusual for third year bigs, but still nice to see. And his scoring ability is improving. His offensive performance in January is especially impressive.
am i reading that right on my mobile?
TT with a 90 Ortg??? Yikes
by Mattchoo on Jan 31, 2010 5:25 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Thomas' Ortg is brutal.
I saw T2 at Walgreens in Deerfield he’s tall. if you’re wondering what his grocery list included: magnums, french vanilla ice cream and a 20 oz sprite
by Super-Structure on Jan 31, 2010 6:10 PM CST reply actions
But notice his DRating
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
its pretty low?
?
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
oh it supposed to be
nm… heh
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Jan 31, 2010 6:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It looked like he just stopped
trying for a while there. He couldn’t even make layups anymore. That will definitely not hold up.
Vinny: "[Thrust] means pace, it means getting the ball out, it means getting your back to the sidelines, it means extending your outlets, it means getting the ball up the court into our early offense with plenty of time."
So now the question is why.
Have we been running a more efficient offense, or does it just look better because of statistical dispersion? Basically, will we look like a bad team again when Salmons stops shooting .556 on his threes and Derrick’s long two percentage comes back towards reality?
"Make good basketball plays!"
-VDN
Didn't expect Gibson to be a better
offensive rebounder than Tyrus. Very interested to see if that stat holds up.
Salmons pretty quietly had an excellent month. I know people noticed he’s playing better, but didn’t notice it was this much better.
Vinny: "[Thrust] means pace, it means getting the ball out, it means getting your back to the sidelines, it means extending your outlets, it means getting the ball up the court into our early offense with plenty of time."
Taj was a strong offensive rebounder in college and that's also been consistently the case
in the NBA as well. The red flag for Taj in college was mediocre defensive rebounding, but he’s done decently there. The biggest bright spot for Taj is that he cut his turnovers way down. He’s not going to shoot a real high % or get to the FT line so he needs to be a very low turnover player.
Taj's TOs being way down is a surprise
and it makes Tyrus’ jump to a 20% TO% look even more terrible, and is proof for the ‘Taj is smart but Tyrus is dumb’ crowd. When Tyrus had his TO% down to 13% for a second consecutive season it was easier to argue that he doesn’t hurt as much as he helps. Now not so much.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 2, 2010 5:06 PM CST up reply actions
Kurt is a worse than average defender on the team!
We miss you, Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Jan 31, 2010 10:42 PM CST reply actions
Nah, just means he doesn't get a team-average amount of blocks and steals
D-Rating is a simple stat
well, i don't know if i trust D Rtg
but it seems like the people who were crowing about Tyrus not getting enough credit for the Bulls turn around were on to something. Tyrus by these numbers is the Bulls best defender (along with Noah) and the two of them together are making it awfully hard for teams to score. Since the Bulls need to play great D to stay in games, his play seems crucial. Of course, Tyrus will continue to get no credit/
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 31, 2010 10:55 PM CST up reply actions
Tyrus has the best block and steal rates on the team, and his defensive rebounding
is solid for a PF. That adds up to a strong defensive rating that is boosted by the team’s overall improvement on defense. DRtg is way to get an idea of the combined value of a player’s steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds within a team context. It’s not the most useful stat in the world, but it still has it’s uses. It’s more helpful for historical analysis because DRtg is about as good as it gets as a defensive box score measurement..
by Scotter on Jan 31, 2010 11:22 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
An odd question
Anyone want to explain to me why Rose’s ORtg is so unimpressive? Is this because his USG is the highest on the team?
He scores inefficiently, because he doesn't take or make a lot of 3s or get to the line. The USG% matters, too, but it's mostly
the inefficient scoring.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Feb 1, 2010 9:57 AM CST up reply actions
If Derrick is playing reasonably well he's going to make 50% of his FGA. Since he
doesn’t take or make 3s with any regularity he’s going to score 2 points on 2 possessions that’s a 100 ORtg. Then his free throw shooting gets added in, but Derrick gets hardly any boost there because he doesn’t go to the line enough. Turnovers, assists, and offensive rebounds are also included in ORtg, but scoring efficiency is what keeps Derrick’s efficiency down.
Derrick is doing pretty well for a young guard that is reliant on making two points jump shots. Tony Parker for example wasn’t any better at the same age.
We're finally getting production at the SG
Salmons and his 122 ORTG are fantastic.
12/31/08: Fire Vinny Del Negro.(upd: 1/7/10)
It's not that different from what Salmons did during with the Bulls last season.
A 117 ORtg on 20% USG.
The most important factor on offense is the 3 pt shot.
"What are you doing Dragic?!"
Pargo with the second highest USG % and lowest TS%
Ugh! What a waste of roster space.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
D-Rating Means Nothing
Defense is about forcing your opponents to make inefficient decisions when they are on the offensive end. Blocks and steals are an extremely limited metric to measure the quality of a typical defender.
The best measure (albeit very flawed) of this type of defense is opponent’s PER.
-Thomas is at 17.0 when he plays PF (http://www.82games.com/0910/09CHI9.HTM)
-Noah is at 18.3 at PF, 18.9 at C (http://www.82games.com/0910/09CHI10.HTM)
-Hinrich is at 7.9 at PG, 16.5 at SG (http://www.82games.com/0910/09CHI4.HTM)
Statistically speaking, Hinrich is the most impressive defender out of the three.
Yeah I dunno, I looked at those too
I tried making a defensive statistical APM using those opponent’s PERs, and the correlation was bleh. I tried adding blocks, steals, and drebs too, also bleh. But I agree that D-Rating is fairly worthless.
I don't think opponents PER is any better than D Rtg
A main part of Tyrus and Noah’s defense is spent on help defense. Noah, Tyrus and Taj are responsible for helping on guards and if they don’t, those guards will go off. I don’t know how you measure that, but opponent PER against totally misses it.
Am I to believe Rose, opponents PER against of 15.6, is a better defender than Noah and Tyrus? And when you consider that Rose is the point guard, and Hinrich playing SG, are we suppose to believe Rose guards his man better than Hinrich is guarding his?
Team defense matters and Rose is getting a lot more help than other guys. Conversely, those guys doing the most of the help aren’t getting credit with this stat. And guys most responsible for help defense are the big men.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 1, 2010 6:01 PM CST up reply actions
to add to that point
Hinrich only plays 13% of his minutes at point guard according to 82games.com. So is Hinrich only playing great defense 13% of the time?
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 1, 2010 6:02 PM CST up reply actions
check that - Hinrich has played 13% of the total minutes at point, 39% of the minutes at the 2.
according to opponent PER against, Salmons is the best defender on the team with 15.0 per against at the position where he plays the majority of his minutes, SG. Deng is 2nd, at 15.1. Rose is the 3rd best defender, with a 15.6 Per against at his primary position.
Hinrich (16.5), Taj (17.4), Tyrus (17.0) and Noah (18.9) are the worst defenders on the team when playing their primary position, according to PER against. That seems really wrong. I don’t know what this stat is measuring…
It seems to me, that for this stat to have any real value, it would have to be a stat that measures the difference of a players PER against the Bulls versus his PER against other teams. Even than, it wouldn’t account for a players help defense.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 1, 2010 6:18 PM CST up reply actions
Doesn't it also assume players match up on defense at the position they're playing on offense?
I’ve never gotten a definitive answer on this, but practically speaking I’ve always thought they must do it that way – it would be way too hard to track every game in the NBA to see who a player is actually guarding regardless of position. So when Kirk’s oppPER at SG is 16.5, doesn’t that just mean that the opponent SG has a PER of 16.5 while Kirk is listed at that position, regardless of his actual defensive assignment? That would work pretty well for most players, but not when you have someone alternating defensive assignments to guard the greater/lesser perimeter threat.
And I agree with you totally on that last part. If you have a guy who consistently is asked to guard the best offensive threat, it makes sense they’ll have a higher oppPER because they’re tasked with stopping the guy with (presumably) the higher PER to start with. 16.5 doesn’t look good in a vacuum, but it’s a whole different story if it comes against a normally 18-20 PER guy.
right
since kirk gets whatever guy is the tougher assignment. loved the rose/hinrich switch on for thabo and westbrook.
would have also looked like a great decision against paul if thornton hadn’t made 5 of 8 from three. even so, paul had a decent night, but not a spectacular one.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
82games at least for this ranks every player on a team from most point guardy
to most centerish. You used to be able to see how they ranked the players in the players pairs data like this.
The computer then assumes that the most point guardy player on the floor for one team is guarding the most point guardy player on the floor for the other team. When Hinrich was playing with Rose the computer assumed Hinrich was guarding a SG. When Hinrich was on the floor with Gordon the computer assumed that Hinrich was guarding a point guard.
That's kind of what I assumed.
For last season, we had that 4-guard lineup semi-regularly with Derrick-Ben-Kirk-John. Personally, I would classify Kirk as sliding to SF and John as PF in that lineup, and I definitely think that’s reflective of the defensive assignments (allowing for how the Bulls switched every freaking thing last season…)
82games, however, for playoff stats last year lists Ben as playing 30% of the SF minutes and Kirk with 0%. Objectively, how 82games does it makes sense – Kirk is more PG than Ben, so if everyone slides up there’s a certain logic to it. And really I don’t care much on the offensive side. But I do think it makes the oppPER stat particularly useless for the Bulls (guards at least) over the past several years.
Keep in mind that PER favors bigs as well
which is part of the reason why PERs for the opponents of Noah, Taj, Tyrus, etc. are a bit higher than those of our guards’ opponents.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
opponent PER is one of the more useless metrics available. it's even more useless than DRtg.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Feb 1, 2010 6:37 PM CST up reply actions
It's even more useless than normal PER,
which isn’t a terribly great stat itself.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
PER is a pretty solid catch-all stat for just offense. It's got plenty of flaws, but it's pace adjusted and correlates
pretty well with most other offensive metrics. So it’s pretty solid.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Feb 1, 2010 10:06 PM CST up reply actions
It's so arbitrary, and Hollinger's so irritating about it [as well as the fact that people sometimes use it to determine a player's overall game].
It does have its’ uses, but … but it shouldn’t, you know?
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
Find the PER for every team
by taking the PER for each player and multiplying it by their % of minutes played, then compare those Team PER’s with Team Offensive Ratings, and they correlate almost perfectly.
Just because the stat isn’t organic doesn’t mean is isn’t useful. I did a writeup on it in more detail.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 3, 2010 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
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