2010 plan: not a plan until it's complete
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 7:30 AM CST
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PrintDoug Thonus at ChicagoNow breaks down the merits (as well as the opposite case) of trading Kirk Hinrich for expirings. A solid write-up, it's basically the same balance the Bulls have tried to reconcile since July 1st: future flexibility or present success? Doug's scenario of dealing Hinrich assumes that all they could get is a walking contract who couldn't help on the court. Knowing how unbelievably shallow this roster is (again realized with that performance in Oakland, with awful reminders potentially soon with the flu bug going around), it's certainly more likely the Bulls miss the playoffs if Hinrich's traded for someone who can't contribute.
Doug then hypothesizes that the added flexibility may not be worth it, since the Bulls missing the playoffs drastically reduces their chances at a top free agent anyway:
The real question with this is how big of a draw is Derrick Rose to other superstars? Would they rather go to an empty team with a potential star even if it misses the playoffs or are they more likely to go to a team with a slightly better record that scrapes into the playoffs?
I've said before if New York and Chicago finish with similar record why choose Chicago? New York has a way better crowd, a better history of spending, and will absolutely put out a 100 million dollar payroll to win. Granted, New York will lose some of the main pieces it uses to compile it's mediocre record [David Lee, Al Harrington, and Chris Duhon], but you'd feel comfortable with the Knicks pulling out all stops on trying to put a good team on the floor.
First of all: ouch.
I agree (and did so going into this season) that going for the playoffs is important, and being in the lottery again gives you a bad hand going into free agency. But worse than having a bad hand is not being able to play, a scenario that is likely if nobody is removed from 2010 payroll, whether that be Hinrich or John Salmons (Tyrus Thomas is a given at this point).
Isn't making sure they absolutely have max-contract cap room a necessity? Doug said it himself when underselling the failures of Gar Paxdorf just a couple weeks ago:
As much as fans complain about the GMing of the Bulls, they went hard to position the team for 2010. A plan I've endorsed for almost three seasons. If they are successful in bringing in a big name free agent this off-season, then some will say they were lucky, but nothing would be further from the truth. They've gone hard after 2010 and made sacrifices to make it happen.
Readers to this site know that I have an issue with this. Their plan is indeed to be very lucky, though if there is also an element of craftiness, it's that even if the plan 'fails' it succeeded: in reducing future payroll. Not much of a sacrifice* there.
So no, they haven't 'gone hard' for 2010 free agency until they actually have the necessary cap room to sign a max-contract player (yes, there's also sign/trades, but the Bulls are bereft of assets due to this 'plan'). That means more sacrifices, and they better be ready to deal Hinrich if that's what it takes. If it costs them a playoff spot (and playoff revenue!) and a shot at those free agents, so be it. It's certainly a risk, and why I always thought this was a bad idea in the first place.
(*this raises an interesting question I've wondered lately: Did the Bulls braintrust actually believe they were 'sacrificing' when letting Ben Gordon go? A very interesting report went under the radar suggesting that Gar Paxdorf told VDN they recognized the team would take a dip without BG, though the fans were told 'ball movement' and defense would more than make up for the absence. I don't mind them lying to us as much as I would mind them actually believing that)
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Keep Hinrich
While the Bulls still should have won that game without Hinrich, the Bulls have much more success with Hinrich in the game. Having two guys who can penetrate into gaps and open up holes for others has worked well in this “offensive system” (or lack thereof). Salmons is the one the Bulls need to rid themselves of. If they could trade his contract for a moldy loaf of bread that had an expiring deal, I would take it. Hinrich is a relatively expensive 6th man if he ends up getting pushed there after free agency, but I think getting rid of Salmons allows the Bulls to stay very competitive, while allowing for a max contract.
I Agree
Dealing Salmons is the big kicker. He is the difference in us having 14 to 15 million next year or 21 to 22 million. If we make the playoffs and make some noise a team that still retains Rose, Noah, Deng, Hinrich, Taj, JJ and Asik looks pretty good to me. Then you fire VDN and Hire Scott and I think we can get a top 2010 FA to fill the SG or PF spot.
Homecoming
I still believe keeping Ben Gordon would have allowed the Bulls as good of a chance to get a max guy as letting him go.
Five possible paths with ultimate outcomes the Bulls could have taken from last summer, from best to worst:
Bulls clear Deng, Hinrich and Salmons and sign James/Wade and Bosh/Stoudemire to go with Rose and Noah (0.000001% chance of happening.)*
Bulls keep Gordon, Hinrich, Salmons, Deng and then sign-and-trade Gordon/Hinrich/Deng + Thomas + 1st round pick for James/Bosh/Wade/Stoudemire/Yao (and able to use the MLE on Asik). (15% chance of happening).
Bulls let Gordon walk, trade Salmons away for a for-sure expiring, keep Hinrich and outright sign James/Bosh/Stoudemire/Yao (keep first-round pick but can’t bring Asik over yet). (15% chance of happening)
Bulls keep Gordon, Hinrich, Salmons, Deng, don’t get a max guy, keep Tyrus Thomas, get a good coach, are decent and young. (30% of happening).
Bulls let Gordon walk, keep Hinrich, Salmons opts out, don’t get a MAX guy, Thomas only takes the QO. Del Negro stays on another year. The Bulls can’t get anyone of worth to come. Suck some more. (100% chance of happening)
*obviously, the percentages will not add up for various reasons.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
by tyger1147 on Jan 20, 2010 8:00 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
As I mentioned in kidron's thread...
… at this point, I think it’d be sweet for the Bulls to just go all out. They won’t, but it would be awesome.
This season:
1. Trade away Hinrich, Deng and Salmons.
2. Suck ass.
This summer:
3. Fire Del Negro
4. Pay for a well-loved, big-name coach.
5. Draft a 3-pt shooting, defending SG that doesn’t need the ball in his hands. (e.g. James Anderson of Oklahoma State)
6. Trade a future 2nd round pick (or two) for one this year if there is a backup PG/SG (Bouldin? Dyson?)
6. Sign LeBron James and Chris Bosh.*
7. Extend Noah (to start in 2011-2012).
8. Encourage Asik to sign a 1-year deal in Europe (and pay for insurance ???)
9. Sign minimum guys.
10. Be above-average, at least a second-round team, probably an Eastern Conference Finals team in 2010-2011. Lack of good depth would be an issue.
Summer of 2011:
11. Draft in the lower/mid-20’s range a better PF than Gibson, a better SF than Johnson or a better backup PG/SG.
12. Extend Rose.
13. Bring over Asik on the MLE.
14. Win championships.
15. PROFIT!!!!
2011-2012 (and forward) team:
Derrick Rose – Jerome Dyson
James Anderson – Scotty Hopson
LeBron James – James Johnson
Chris Bosh – Taj Gibson
Joakim Noah – Omer Asik
That’s your new dynasty. I know the Bulls won’t gut the team to try and make this happen, so it’s just a fantasy. I know that even if they did, they probably wouldn’t fire Del Negro or wouldn’t get a good coach. And then you know they’d draft the wrong guy. And even if they did all that, the chances of getting those two guys is remote. But just think if they DID do all of that?!?!
*obviously, this entire plan is shit if they don’t make this one happen. On the other hand, if they keep Hinrich and Deng and don’t get a MAX guy anyway, who the hell cares? Yay for 35 wins? I’d rather not have those two and be in the 5-10 range in the lottery.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
by tyger1147 on Jan 20, 2010 8:52 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
probably not.
whatever. thanks for the constructive comment
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
The Bulls can't go all out on their "2010 plan"
like you said they want that playoff revenue, even if it’s just for four games.
"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."
- fundamentallysound
Exactly, I'm nervous about
the 2010 plan, I’m trying to be optimistic, but its hard, keeping Hinrich endores mediocrity, trading him means we could miss the playoffs, but get a high draft pick, and have money going BALLS OUT!!, the only saving grace could be having a high draft pick and FA comes after the draft, allowing the Bulls to make a power move, maybe Kerr can gift us like McHale did Boston.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
i love how the bulls front office has brainwashed so many people into thinking we have this totally awesome plan
i remember there was some chatter last week about the bulls getting TWO max free agents. um, there’s a good chance we won’t even have enough room for one max free agent.
and if there truly is a 2010 “plan,” then trading hinrich for expiring(s) has to be part of it. ive stated many times i dont believe that there actually is a plan, but rather reinsdorf wants to just keep counting his money. then when the cap goes down this summer and we are just short of being able to offer max money he’ll come out and blame this darned economy and say oh well gang we’ll just try again in 2011.
once again, as ive also stated many times, this is why the true crime of the bulls offseason was filling out the roster with hunter/gray/pargo. we need guys who can actually play in those spots incase a trade of kirk for expirings becomes available.
http://ExtendtheGame.blogspot.com
by Calogero on Jan 20, 2010 10:18 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
"blame this darned economy and say oh well gang we’ll just try again in 2011."
yup.
Also, I think we may have to include picking James Johnson along with the Hunter/Gray/Pargo roster allocations.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Wouldn't be so bad if...
…we could get Kevin Durant. I’d rather have him over LeBron, just because I want to see someone topple the “LeBron is going to win the next _ of the championships” stuff pushed by Boers/Bernstein, Simmons and the like.
I better stop myself and this wishful thinking.
while johnson has undoubtedly sucked
i dont blame the org as much for that. hes a rookie who looked to have some talent, taken in the middle of what was supposed to be a poor draft. everyone and their mother (well, except noted basketball scholar bill simmons, who referred to pargo as “a poor man’s ben gordon”) knew that hunter, gray, and pargo cant play a lick. even though passing on blair at 16 looked dumb at the time and looks dumber now, at least whiffing on johnson is somewhat explainable. there was no rational argument that could be made thinking that hunter/gray/pargo could provide anything resembling an NBA player on the court.
http://ExtendtheGame.blogspot.com
Agreed on Pargo/Gray/Hunter
they could’ve given those spots to 3 D-leaguers
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
ill never understand why the bottom line obsessed reinsdorf didnt do this
not only are 3 d leaguers better than pargo/gray/hunter (as golden state’s d-league laden roster proved to us the other day), but they’re also cheaper.
http://ExtendtheGame.blogspot.com
because they had to sell the "pargo is a poor man's ben gordon" to the fanbase
And because lindsey is a veteran, the league is paying most of his salary. Seriously. they only have to play about as much as they would a minimum guy. Plus they get a coach. And a mentor. Bargain!
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Because for some strange reason
The Bulls like to bring back crappy players who have already been in the organization (see Griffin, Adrian).
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
We screwed up
If we were serious about the 2010 plan, we would have traded Kirk for Blake and Outlaw…two players that can contribute for this year and also would be expiring. But GarPax got greedy and asked for Bayless. Blake and Outlaw was enough…I don’t know if they didn’t really want to trade Kirk and knew that asking for Bayless would sabotage the whole deal.
I really don’t think they planned for this hard enough. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be worried about what to do with Kirk now. Go hard, my ass.
Explain this line to me:
New York has a way better crowd
I have lived in Manhattan for nearly three years and I was able to make it to two games at the garden, one of which was against the Bulls.
The crowd sucks. It seems like most of the people I talk to that are my age and from here are Bulls fans (b/c of the Jordan era). I would guess the crowd was about 30-40% Bulls fans. The Garden is a dump. My experience here so far is that NY fans generally suck. They complain incessantly and give up any support when their teams don’t perform while being mostly uninformed about the sports themselves. I could go on forever.
The willingness of ownership to spend is definitely a legit argument. The atmosphere of midtown Manhattan certainly has some advantages over the Near West Side. I get that but a better crowd? I’m sure I am biased to an extent but to say Knick fans are a better crowd than Bulls fans is something I just don’t see.
by it'snotsomuchmeasitisroenick on Jan 20, 2010 10:24 AM CST reply actions
ask Doug
Though as a frequent attendee to Bulls games I’ll say our crowd is no great shakes. And I’m part of the blame, I’m not much of a cheerer. Just gimme my soft pretzel and hope the cheese doesn’t get on my business casual.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
bulls crowd is not as it use to be. it use to pack in every game back in the 90s, now you dont see to much of that no more
maybe the knicks crowd is rude, so what? the crowd over there is packed every single night
by rosegirldotcom on Jan 20, 2010 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
Fair enough
I haven’t been to a Bulls game at the UC in over 5 years. That change in attitude is a shame although I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise.
by it'snotsomuchmeasitisroenick on Jan 20, 2010 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
you have to judge a crowd during the playoffs or by the team/product.
I think also the team dictates the crowd. If the Bulls are good the crowds will get better. If the Bulls are bad you get people like Matt who fancy pretzels. jk
Seriously though there isn’t much to cheer for with these Bulls teams. I think people realize this.
I think some smaller market teams have better crowds because.. they just don’t know any better.
Honestly I don’t expect white collar Bulls fans to get up and cheer like maniacs unless the teams is clearly a winner and title worthy even then it’s really not in their nature to cheer… in house voices.
why is there an asshole on my wheaties box?
they could also be average, yet more entertaining
this is baaaaaaad basketball.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 1:30 PM CST up reply actions
What NBA player cares about the crowd?
This is their job. The free agent check list starts money, then money, then money, then maybe location( media/marketing oppurtunities vs. nightlife) or teams chance of competing in future.
The one exception here where location may get a lot closer to money is Toronto cause the whole Canada thing … and back to when Steve Francis said no the the Vancouver Griz thing.
The level of crowd applause will add no weight to the decision scale these players are thinking about.
You think someone who is going to get max money from anywhere they go...
…doesn’t care about playing in Memphis or in New York? I don’t buy that.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I'm guessing we'll trade Salmons
Much better contract, and has the instant offense that contenders always seem to want to add by the deadline. He’s played great in recent weeks, but the Bulls clearly don’t trust him over Hinrich, and you only need to move one to clear up enough cap space.
I want them to move
the Craptain, he has been an organizational crutch, and has held this franchise back, we get rid of him, and the glory days return.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
I'm hoping that as well
It’s certainly the preferred option, I just hope they don’t strike out on moving Salmons and then are at his mercy in the offseason.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
though if I were a contending team
I’d much rather have Hinrich.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Just hope, the Lakers
had enough of Derek Fisher and see Hinrich as a guy that can be his replacement and not Farmar.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions
i thought Doug's post was ridiculous
the Bulls should sacrifice the “great PLAN” that they have been selling for the last couple years, the plan that was the stated reason for letting Gordon go and will eventually “force” the Bulls to let Tyrus go, all so they can keep Hinrich, finish 7th in the East and watch Lebron dance all over the court. Color me excited.
Of course, if anyone should get hurt for any extended amount of time, the Bulls won’t make the playoffs regardless of whether Hinrich is here or not. And of course, given our absolutely atrocious point differential and road record, many stat guys are projecting we won’t make the playoffs even with a full roster. Still, I guess the chance of making the playoffs and keeping Kirk is more important than signing a major free agent. Remember Boston!!!!!!!!!! I guess that is the new rallying cry of the Bulls.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 20, 2010 11:42 AM CST reply actions
i will say this about the atrocious point differential
a lot of that was racked up with a less than full roster. with such an enormous drop off after our top 7, that’s going to happen any time a player misses a game. i dont have the numbers in front of me, but id be curious to see what our point differential looks like when the entire top 7 is available.
http://ExtendtheGame.blogspot.com
Without taking the time to figure it out totally
I’m counting all the games that Ty played in, with the exception of Monday’s mess – that should catch all the games both Ty and Kirk played in. I think some other guys have missed a game or two here or there, but I don’t want to take the time to look all top 7 guys up and correlate who played when.
So with that said, the point differential in those 15 games is +2.8.
Yay! Better offense! And some defense!
but that assumes perfect health for the rest of the season
and it also doesn’t give other teams credit for having injuries as well. What is Indiana’s point differential with a full roster? What is the Bobcats?
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 20, 2010 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't say it said anything special - although it is drastically different from the margin without them.
I’m a stat geek – when someone poses a stats based question (as Calogero did), I feel compelled to know the answer. I’m always hopeful someone will have gotten to it first to save me the time, but if not I seriously can’t resist finding out.
And I wasn’t assuming anything going forward – that’s simply what has happened when both Kirk and Ty have played, and as no one else has missed a substantial stretch of time presumably most if not all of those games include the top 7.
Yay! Better offense! And some defense!
Oh, and to add to that,
I’ve been noticing this for quite some time. There are a lot of people on here who dismiss a Bulls’ win if the other team has someone out, or is on the second of a back-to-back, or even just has an important player “not shoot well” (because of course it couldn’t be good defense on our part, has to be an off night on their part). And while these are certainly factors in evaluating how “good” of a win it was, many of the same people seem to be in “No Excuses” mode where the Bulls’ are concerned.
If we’re going to justify losses by other teams for that stuff, it’s only fair to take it into account when the Bulls lose.
Yay! Better offense! And some defense!
Doug definitely has a weird fixation on thresholds
I can’t imagine an agent saying “Well, the Bulls won 37 games and finished 9th, so fuck ‘em. Had they won 41 games, now we’d have something to build on!” Doug called for moving Noah in today’s post because won’t make an all-star team over Howard or Lopez anytime soon, as if that means anything.
But that aside, I’m wondering how our success this season all of a sudden hinges on Mr. 10.5 PER, Kirk Hinrich. I get that Pargo sucks and Salmons hasn’t played well, but if we need a 10.5 PER player to stay afloat, that’s the best argument I’ve ever heard for going for broke in 2010.
by YaoPau on Jan 20, 2010 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, I never seen any
organization over value a player like Kirk Hinrich, Kirk Hinrich is like a Johnny Damon or Bernard Berrian
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly
Whether the Bulls finish 41-41 and 7th in the East or 39-43 and 10th in the East, it is essentially going to be the same core and the same key players. Free agents aren’t going to be fooled by 5 or 6 game 1st round exit.
And talk about overreacting to a loss. Hinrich is a good player, and he helps the Bulls tremendously when he is out there. But that is because his replacements are not NBA caliber players. If you can trade Hinrich and get a decent back up point guard in return (Farmar or Fisher for example) I don’t think the drop off would be so noticeable. The problem comes that without Hinrich, Rose is the only NBA caliber guard on the roster (Salmons being a natural SF).
Doug would rather keep Hinrich and tie up 9 million this season and 8 million next season than “overpay” Noah to the tune of $10 to 11 million a season? I don’t get it.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 20, 2010 12:15 PM CST up reply actions
dunno
‘league observers’ were fooled by last season’s playoff series. I still think that the status of ’’playoff team" means more than the 37-or-41 wins distinction, even though in practical terms it makes no sense.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions
I think there is a pretty big discrepancy between the views of league
observers and the views of players and agents. I don’t see Lebron choosing Chicago over NY because the Bulls won 2 more games than the Knicks did. I think its just as important that Rose and Noah look good for the remainder of the season because those guys are the ones players are going to be coming to play with.
Besides, I think what fooled league observers wasn’t that the Bulls made the playoffs. It was that they were competitive once they got into the playoffs. And part of the reason the Bulls played so well against the Celtics is because they were missing their best player. If the Bulls have to face the Celtics or Cavs as full strength and end up getting swept in the 1st round, is that impression going to be so favorable again?
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 20, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
I would hope not
but I also foresee a Bulls press conference where they say “VDN’s led us to the playoffs the past two seasons, he deserves an extension”
You’re likely right, there is a lot more underhanded influence that matters more than whatever outward perception of a team. And thus, I really should be focusing on the Reinsdorf-Tellem (Joe Johnson) thing more.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 1:32 PM CST up reply actions
I don't agree -- it's too late for the Bulls to look much different than New York
If the Bulls got a 5 seed and NYK missed the playoffs then maybe a potential FA might see that as factor in the Bulls favor. But at this point, I think people are smart of to see that a 37 win NYK team and 41 win Bulls team aren’t much different. Moreover, I bet “team success” doesn’t weigh heavily in any FAs mind. Money and location and an organization willing to spend to win are, in that order, undoubtably way more important.
Last year, I think Rose’s performance at the Garden made people think he might blossom into a HOF-type talent this season, that might just absolutely explode. That hasn’t happened and I don’t think they’ll get a “who knows how could he could be” feeling from making the playoffs this season — I think people are starting to feel like they know about how good Rose will be.
by hitlesswonder on Jan 20, 2010 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
I think Rose+Noah means more than the win total
but the Nets have Harris+Lopez. Knicks have crud.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
We also have Deng
Mant people undervalue Deng, but remember when Kobe wanted to play with the guy?
Homecoming
I would guess among players, yeah. And for future prospects....
In actual production, right now? I don’t think so.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I'm hearing
reports the Nets may be looking to deal Harris
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 3:57 PM CST up reply actions
Bulls are better than the Knicks
cuz of Jordan. Plain and simple. Hate the man..love the man, he is the measuring stick of greatness. You want to be the best? You wanna be dat guy? Come to Chi…put up 7 chips and make it look eazy. Kobe wanted that challenge…im sure Wade and Lebron wants that.
True Story: John Salmons sucks so bad, Tiger Woods wants to meet him
What I think the Bulls should do vs. what I think they will do
I’m going to be charitable here: there should be no doubt about whether or not the Bulls should move Kirk for expiring deals if they can. The question is whether or not the Bulls would do this if they could, and the only reason the answer isn’t obvious is that there’s a strong possibility that Bulls management are idiots.
The Bulls have a good young point guard. They can’t afford to pay $9M a year for a backup point guard — that’s horrible resource allocation. Thanks to Kirk’s awesome combo-osity they can start him at the 2, but please. Rose needs a 2 guard that can shoot the lights out from deep and that isn’t Kirk. The Bulls need to get PF with a mid-range to pickandroll with Rose and a 2 guard that can shoot 3s consistently. It would make sense to move Kirk to move money to those needs regardless of the 2010 FA class.
The team needs to be restructured around Noah and Rose; to do that they need to clear money and space for new players. Getting cap space and a lottery ticket is better than not enough cap space to sign anyone good and the 8th seed.
That the Bulls haven’t vigorously pursued having cap space makes me truly doubt their commitment to 2010. The vibe I get is that they feel “if things fall into place and it works out that’s great” but they aren’t really counting getting anyone. I think they’ll keep Kirk. They’ll try to trade Salmons, but that’s not a sure thing. They’ll let Ty walk. They might get Joe Johnson, but that’s it and hardly for sure. I think their plan is setting the Bulls up for a best-case of mediocrity, and they probably know that but aren’t willing to take the risks to do anything different.
"Getting cap space and a lottery ticket is better than not enough cap space to sign anyone good and the 8th seed."
Totally agreed. If anything, the draft this year has players that could be very good such as Wall (of course), Evan Turner, Ed Davis, Xavier Henry, Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich and Wesley Johnson. Being in the lottery and definitely having the cap space might actually be the best way to get good faster.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
Which is why I've jumped on the "Trade everyone 'cept Noah and Rose, tank the season, go for broke this summer" plan.
If they really, really, really blow… they could get one of those guys you listed AND have enough to sign two of Wade, Bosh, James, Stoudemire, Johnson, etc.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
The Bulls will have...
Rose, Noah and Deng. All they need to do is rid themselves of Salmons and we are ready to sign a max player right now. If the cap falls at 54 Million all we have to do is trade James Johnson and we can sign a max guy.
I seriously doubt that Lebron and Wade are going to turn down an extra year to go to rebuilding projects, but that is just me. The Knicks may grab Bosh, but if we can keep Hinrich and sign Boozer/Johnson/etc…we can be a good team. I think people have just forgotten what it is like to actually enjoy watching your team consistently.
by Super-Structure on Jan 20, 2010 2:13 PM CST reply actions
I really can't see any top players like Lebron or Wade leaving a good thing for a bad thing.
I wonder if the Bulls could add a Bosh or Stat this summer and then get themselves under the cap in 2011 for Kevin Durant or Melo?At this point I feel like whats one more losing season? Add some more productive rookies for a bench and see how that roster would fare.. I don’t know i guess the Bulls would have to go over the tax though and it’s about time they did.
Derrick Rose
Kevin Durant
James Johnson
Chris Bosh
Joakim Noah
I’d be really happy with that! It’s probably super unrealistic but hey times be hard this is what losing can do to a man.
why is there an asshole on my wheaties box?
I have seen them... nice team.
Playing really well but when those guys are up for contracts will they pay them? I lived in OKC and went back to visit it’s not exactly Beverly Hills. If you’re Durrant maybe you look for a bigger market?
why is there an asshole on my wheaties box?
Some people prefer the OKC style to Beverly Hills
Can’t say specifically about Durant, but he is from this general area. I know we always assume guys want the “big markets” – but it’s not an absolute given. Whether the team will pay? I don’t know about the whole crowd of them, but if anyone’s a given in that group it’d have to be KD, right?
Yay! Better offense! And some defense!
The guys on the team, from all indications, get along incredibly well.
Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Green, Maynor…these guys are a young, up-and-coming core that have jelled well both on and off the court, and Durant has repeatedly said he doesn’t want to leave OKC. Sure, $$$ could change things, but from all indications, Durant isn’t the type of dude that will let that affect him. I see no reason why a guy like him would want to leave that situation.
wow! the bulls and the knicks are in a competition
by rosegirldotcom on Jan 20, 2010 2:38 PM CST up reply actions
The Knicks
are looking for their next Rory Sparrow
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
Anthony Avent, Anthony Boner, Greg Anthony
by QUINTEN DALEY on Jan 20, 2010 3:10 PM CST up reply actions
Anyone know how the sign-and-trade works?
Let’s say Bosh wants to go to New York, but wants to go via sign-and-trade so he can collect the extra $37 million in salary. Can the Raptors say no, and instead trade him to Chicago where they’d get a better package in return?
I’d assume that’s the case, that players get the extra $37 million at the cost of letting their current team have a say in the trade destination. If so, I think it’s our best shot at landing a blue chipper. I doubt Toronto wants to trade Bosh to their closest division rival (the Knicks), nor do they want to take back a package of Wilson Chandler and Jordan Hill. If Bosh is willing to compromise and come to Chicago, he gets his money, the Raptors get a better package, and I benefit.
No.
The player has to agree to the trade and conditions of the trade prior to signing. They cannot ‘trick’ the player in order to get what they want while sticking it to the player.
Via Coons FAQ
79. Can a team sign a player using the sign-and-trade rule and then say, “Ha ha, we fooled you. We’re not trading you!”?
No. A sign-and-trade is treated like a single, atomic transaction, not two separate transactions between which one party can change its mind. The sign-and-trade clause makes the contract invalid if a trade to the specified team does not take place within 48 hours.
Thanks, I figured they couldn't trick the player
I meant can they stop a player from going to a certain destination, and it sounds like they can, which is a huge boon for us.
One more question if you don’t mind: Can the Bulls re-sign Tyrus this offseason and package him for Bosh? Can the Knicks re-sign David Lee this offseason and package him for Bosh?
Ya know
I’d started to think about that more as the deadline approaches, and a young expiring could be a valuable trade chip.
Then I look at how the Bulls aren’t really showcasing him, and he’s not really showing that much improvement anyway.
But it actually makes more sense to try to trade him with a sign and trade (something I thought they’d try with Gordon) because you avoid the PPP, get at least something in return, and remove his cap hold in the process.
Only if those players want to go to Toronto.
But yeah.
Also, yes, Toronto can affect where Bosh goes, but only if NO TEAMS have the ability and willingness to sign him outright or he does NOT he reciprocate.
e.g. If NYK has ample room to sign Bosh outright, he can try to work a sign-and-trade to get that extra dough. And Toronto can say, “No, we don’t want to do that. We want Chicago players.” If bosh wants to take less money and really wants to go to NYK, he can do that.
Of course, the question would then be: “Why the hell would Toronto want anyone on Chicago’s team?” Would you rather take Deng and some junk of scrubs back or just let him walk?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
the answer is Noah.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm thinking that too
2010 isn’t a race between the Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Heat, and whoever else has cap space. Every contending big-market team is also in play.
Houston scares me. They can offer a sweet, inexpensive package of Ariza, Landry and filler. Bosh’s agent would love it because he’d get a ~4% cut of the extra $37 mil, and he’d get his client in a big market for endorsements. Bosh would love it because he’d get his huge contract, join a contender and not have to pay income tax. And the Raptors can get cheap, young, talented pieces.
Miami can offer Beasley and Cook, and again Bosh doesn’t have to pay income tax.
Denver could offer Ty Lawson, JR Smith, and Kenyon Martin for Bosh and Turkoglu.
Lakers could make that Bynum deal work.
For the Bulls to have a shot at this, I think Noah would have to be the odd man out, with the main Bulls advantages as (1) Bosh/Wade/LeBron might want to play with Derrick Rose, and (2) the Bulls are far enough under the cap to take back a bad contract as well, like Turkoglu’s.
Bosh and Turkoglu for Noah, Salmons, James Johnson. And as expensive as that is for us, I’m not even sure that would make us the frontrunners.
"Bosh and Turkoglu for Noah, Salmons, James Johnson"
That can’t possibly work salary wise. Without even looking it up I know Noah and JJ are on relatively low paying rookie deals and Salmons is at about 6 mil.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
Well that's assuming we clear Hinrich this offseason
I believe we’d be far enough under the cap to take on both salaries.
Right. if you're under the cap to take the salaries, they don't have to match.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
That's a pretty big assumption
considering that he’s playing worse than he was last year when they could have moved him then for expirings. I seriously do not thing this org thinks ahead like that. None of the things they do make me believe they have thought this stuff out beyond not spending too much money and turning a profit.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
Isn't that Kurt Heimlich
to Portland deal a back-pocket item for the Bulls.
Ya know, for Blake and Outlaw.
I don't know if that was real or not
But I do know that since the summer they have already committed to Andre Miller so who knows.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
Bosh is also a native Texan, FYI
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 4:23 PM CST up reply actions
You are thinking about this completely wrong
Lebron, Bosh, Wade, A’mare and Joe Johnson will be able to dictate where they go. Its not about who can offer the better deal, its about who can entice a major free agent and than have enough assets to cut some type of deal. I don’t think its a bidding war in a true sense – the players have more power than the teams.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 20, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe, but only if they choose to sign with a team under the cap
If Bosh wants to come to Chicago, I can see your point where he’ll say “Listen, either you make a crappy trade with Chicago and get some small assets back or we’ll just leave and you get nothing, your choice”.
But let’s say Houston, or Denver, or LA offers one of those deals. Bosh’s options would be
(1) sign outright with his favorite under the cap team for 5 years, $97 mil.
(2) force the Raptors to make a crappy sign-and-trade deal to his favorite under the cap team for 6 years, $134 mil.
(3) accept a trade to a contending team and make 6 years, $134 mil.
These free agents can dictate where they’ll go, but they only have leverage if they want to join a team that can pay them outright. So in that sense, it’s important that the Bulls clear cap space, as it gives them bargaining power if a free agent really really really wants to come here.
But if Houston offers a good trade, and Bosh wants to go there, would he have leverage saying “Make a crappy trade with Houston or I’m signing outright with the Knicks where I’d make $50 million less considering income tax differences”? I wouldn’t think that’s believable, but then again I’m a bad negotiator.
That's the whole Kobe Bryant thing then.
Why come to a team with JUST Derrick Rose? Or just Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
It always pays to get something...
Of course, the question would then be: "Why the hell would Toronto want anyone on Chicago’s team?" Would you rather take Deng and some junk of scrubs back or just let him walk?
…as opposed to nothing.
Assets are assets. Especially if they can get 2011 or 2012 expiring deals (Salmons, Kirk). Those short deals could net something in return. Or if they’re bold they could ask for Noah.
If they are bad contracts to the Bulls, why are they good contracts to Toronto?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Scenarios are different...
Bulls are trying to do something right now.
Current CBA expires after 2010 season and all signs point to things changing then. Couple that with the possible BRI decline, and Kirk’s contract would hold a different kind of value then. And Salmons would be an expiring deal for that season.
If Toronto is losing Bosh they’d be rebuilding, not reloading. The Bargnani extension, Turk signing, and Calderon deal have them at at least 32 mil for that off season. Those two chips would be valuable for them then. The Salmons and Kirk deals are not valuable to the Bulls for this year’s off-season, which is what they’ve set themselves up for.
You mentioned Salmons and Hinrich. Those aren't rebuilding chips.
I think you’re over-valuing the expiring contract. How often do they actually get used?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
i would think either
deng (even slightly overpaid) or noah would be considered a colossal return for an unrestricted free agent’s “extra year”. someone would have to point out where such compensation has been negotiated in any past unrestricted player sign and trade.
"Let's do some living... after we die"
Can you name an unrestricted superstar who's moved via sign and trade?
It’s not a challenge, I just can’t think of one. Rashard Lewis doesn’t count.
valid point
joe johnson (certainly to me at the time) was another. boris diaw couldn’t get off the bench in atlanta then, so it worked out a little bit. and colangelo got a future pick, but atlanta wound up with horford and phoenix (typically) got robin lopez.
still, what compensation would a team logically expect? they have nearly zero leverage. it’s all in the hands of the agent of the player leaving. in fact, if he really wants to win couldn’t he effect his new team giving less compensation by threatening to sign for five years instead of six?
"Let's do some living... after we die"
'course
i forgot that that doesn’t answer the question to your qualification. joe was restricted.
yet most felt the compensation was very insufficient at the time.
"Let's do some living... after we die"
Interesting point.
Basically, I see it playing out like this.
Colangelo: Alright Chris Bosh, sign on the dotted line!
Agent: The Raptors are going nowhere, Chris will be leaving. But you could give us a sign-and-trade.
Colangelo: I figured you’d want the extra $37 million I can offer you. We’ve got this offer from Houston, they want to give us Ariza, Landry, and a pick, and Chris can play in his hometown alongside Yao Ming on a contending team. And Chris, you wouldn’t have to pay income tax. What do you say?
Agent: Well, I was going to play hardball and say “If you don’t give us what we want, we’re signing outright with the Knicks!” But that’s a pretty good deal for us. We’ll take it.
The only way I see the Raptors getting completely screwed out of compensation is if Bosh really wants to go to the Knicks/Heat and the Raptors want to prevent it because division rivals / stacking the Heat.
No income tax?
I know FL has no state inxome tax/
Is Texas like that?
why not?
Large market, Drose is his buddy I wouldn’t think its out of the realm of possibility assuming the Bulls could get cap space in 2011.
why is there an asshole on my wheaties box?
you know of the reply button?
why is there an asshole on my wheaties box?
by SoulEater7 on Jan 20, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know I'm thinking... if you really wanna just completely build around Rose
I’ve started to flirt with the idea of parting with Noah.. I mean I love Noah but he’s a hustle guy and I love his work ethic and winning attitude.. I’d seriously consider sending him in a package with Deng to Houston. He’d love Houston’s weather… the Bulls could unload Deng and have complete flexibility in building this thing right.
I’m not saying 100% do it… but you gotta wonder if they take on Deng that might give you room to sign two guys like a Bosh and Johnson… maybe land a nice lottery pick.
why is there an asshole on my wheaties box?
Right now how many teams will have max cap room?
Other than their own teams?
Houston, NJ, NY, Miami has room for Wade and another max?
That will leave a player on the outside.
I would take Boozer or Amare if they can’t get a max. I’ll take them for 15 million. Defense is not thier strong suit, but we need offense to create mismatches.
If Lebron loses in the playoffs again, or Wade gets knocked out in the1st round, they will be more inclined to move to another city.
The Heat got blasted tonight
losing to the Bobcats by 40! You have to think Wade may seriously consider any offers he gets to leave. He’s totally carrying that horrible team!
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
that's true
the Bulls never have bad losses.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 20, 2010 9:39 PM CST up reply actions
They don't have Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, LeBron James, though, either...
…and couldn’t get them after Wade. Miami could.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I didn't just mean the Bulls
Besides the Bulls have better complimentary pieces for him in Rose, Noah and Deng than he has now. Of course there is the whole coach thing but I’d like to think VDN will be gone by then.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
Which one is a better complement than Bosh, James, Stoudemire, etc?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
That's a big assumption
I don’t see LeBron leaving the Cavs but stranger things have happened I guess. Obviously these guys are better compliments but there is no guarantee Miami gets those two guys. They could just as likely end up with Boozer or David Lee. Would that be enough to make Wade stay? I don’t know.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
for the same reason it's a big assumption to say Wade will leave
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 21, 2010 4:44 PM CST up reply actions
How am I assuming that he's leaving
I simply said you have to think he will seriously consider it.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
Right. And guys will seriously consider going to Miami.
I don’t think he’ll consider leaving if he can get one of those guys to come to Miami.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
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