Luol at PF

by YaoPau on Sep 29, 2009 4:49 PM CDT Comment 31 comments

In 2007, Luol averaged 18.8ppg on .560 TS%. Take out that season, and his career TS% is .515. We're all hoping for a resurgent season.

Here's something I haven't noticed before, though. His positional splits from that season (per 48 minutes):

SF: 22.9pts, .502 eFG%, 5.4 FTA, .543 TS%
PF: 29.6pts, .594 eFG%, 6.8 FTA, .633 TS%

Oddly enough, for as well as Deng played at PF in 2007, his minutes at PF have dipped since. Approximate minutes played at PF since '07:

2007: 518 minutes, 17% of his playing time
2008: 161 minutes, 8% of his playing time
2009: 162 minutes, 10% of his playing time

Overall splits from 2007-2009, again per 48 minutes:

SF: 22.5pts, 5.5 fta, 8.6reb, 3.3ast, 2.5to, .532 TS%
PF: 26.8pts, 6.5 fta, 10.6reb, 2.3ast, 2.1to, .597 TS%

The low TS% at SF seems to correlate to his jumpshot percentages over the past three seasons:

2007: 42.6 eFG%, 61% of FGA were jumpshots
2008: 40.6 eFG%, 61% of FGA were jumpshots
2009: 38.1 eFG%, 66% of FGA were jumpshots

Luol's jumpshot is partly to blame, and I expect it to top 40% again this year now that he's healthy. But the data seems to suggest that Luol's return to 2007 efficiency is also dependent upon playing more PF. With the news that James Johnson is practicing exclusively at SF, I'd say the chances are good.

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on fire today, YaoPau!

you’re my first star of ’09 BaB training camp.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Sep 29, 2009 4:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You know what

you get into that zone, and the post button looks as big as a saucer.

by YaoPau on Sep 29, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 7 recs

It's quite possible

we could see a lot more of him at PF with lineups of Noah/Miller, Deng, Salmons, Hinrich and Rose. I would be willing to bet we see that a good deal rather than bring in rookies for Tyrus.

"I'm in the Hall already, on the wall already, I'm a work of art I'm a Warhol already"-Jay Z

by bigballa10 on Sep 29, 2009 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What are his defensive numbers at PF compared to SF?

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Sep 29, 2009 5:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

His opponent counterpart stats at PF are pretty good for 2006-07, but pretty awful for 07-08 and last year.

Which makes sense cause he was all broken and crummy those years.

1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box

by fundamentallysound on Sep 29, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, interesting.

The biggest thing that would be of concern is the “is his body strong enough for it for 25 mins or more per night?”

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Sep 29, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think swinging Luol down to the PF for any more than 15 minutes a night is unneccesary.

First, you have Tyrus who should be getting at least 30 minutes a night there (at least until he’s dealt). That leaves 3 minutes after accounting 15 to Deng. Give those to Joakim or James Johnson. If Luol is playing 15 minutes at PF, then you need to be only playing him like 20 minutes a game at SF. That means Salmons and JJ need to be playing the remaining 28 minutes in some sort of combination. I could see James Johnson getting about 18 of those minutes and 10 going to Salmons. Then you’d want Salmons playing anywhere from 25 to 28 minutes at SG with the rest going to Hinrich primarily, with maybe 5 minutes a night to Pargo. Then Derrick plays 38 minutes a night at PG and Hinrich backs up the remaining 10 minutes. That gives Hinrich around 30 minutes of playing time, Salmons about 35 minutes, Deng about 35 minutes, James Johnson about 18 to 20 minutes and have Noah and Brad split the C minutes in some way.

I’d actually like to see Brad and Noah play together a bit more than they would in the scenario I’ve outlined, as they complement each other well.

1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box

by fundamentallysound on Sep 29, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You think James Johnson is getting 18 to 20 minutes per game?

I think that’s a serious overestimation of his playing time as long as the top 7 are all playing.

by Scotter on Sep 29, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm saying that if you're swinging Deng to the PF slot for 15 minutes a game

that’s going to result in minutes opening up at the SF slot, and Salmons is going to be playing a lot of SG, so he can’t take them all. I don’t necessarily think that swinging Deng to the PF is the wisest choice.

It all depends on how good Johnson is and what kind of player Tyrus Thomas ends up being in his 4th year.

1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box

by fundamentallysound on Sep 29, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deng played 6mpg at PF in 07, under 3mpg since

15mpg would be a big jump.

by YaoPau on Sep 29, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was just writing that when you posted.

Deng wasn’t really PF. And it wasn’t like Deng was playing against true PFs in the majority of that time at PF. Deng at PF also meant it was a small ball lineup with 3 guards spacing the floor, James Johnson at SF and Deng at PF doesn’t really recreate the conditions that Deng in excelled in. I find it dubious that Deng would get any benefit from playing PF in that scenario.

6 minutes out of the 96 at PF and C wouldn’t be unreasonable with Noah/Thomas/Miller splitting the other 90, and other team’s small ball lineups may force it. But, I don’t see the value of taking 6 minutes away from those three guys when the result is going to be having Pargo or JJ on the floor.

by Scotter on Sep 29, 2009 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There we go. I didn't look those numbers up, but I figured he'd never

even come close to playing 15 mins/ game at PF, let alone the 25 minutes a game tyger was suggesting. 6 minutes his body should able to handle and is probably the most you’d want him playing from a team perspective. Give Tyrus 32 minutes, Deng 6, and the remaining 10 to Joakim at PF. 10 mins of Joakim at PF means 10 mins of Brad and Joakim together which is, to my mind, a very good thing.

1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box

by fundamentallysound on Sep 29, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think VDN can handle all that.

Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.

by stupidgenius on Sep 29, 2009 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But wait, wait, wait....

…I was told time, after time after time after time after time after afasdfkljsdfkljasd that James Johnson was drafted as a PF to replace Tyrus Thomas and that the writing was clearly on the wall, yada yada yada

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Sep 29, 2009 5:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

immediate problem I see

it won’t be good for Luol’s bones.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Sep 29, 2009 6:11 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Loul playin the 4 for more than 5 minutes a game is just begging a season ending injury. You really think his frail body can withstand defending PFs for an extended period of time. Plus that takes away the height advantage he has against other SFs.

I have no prob with a few minutes of Lu at PF but no more than 5.

by C Smoove on Sep 29, 2009 7:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

NO , PLEASE DON"T

No , please don’t play Deng at PF. He Wil get injured again easily. PERIOD.

by Calvin X on Sep 29, 2009 11:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Why does Lu at PF

Have to mean he is exclusively defending or dealing with PFs in all exchanges? We have more than enough capable defenders that for that brief stretch of time ( +/- 6 to 8 minutes), depending on our lineup, he might not even have to bang with a PF at all. It’s not a video game where he’ll match up with Elton Brand all day if you put him at PF.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Sep 30, 2009 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So what's the point of having him play power forward?

I don’t understand. If you don’t want him guarding the PF, he’s not going to guard the C. If he’s not going to guard either of those, then he’s guarding the SF. If you’ve got a SF who can guard the PF’s, then… his name is only James Johnson. I don’t see that being better than Deng in actual ability, so then you’re sacrificing defense at PF just to keep Deng from some possible but not guaranteed injury. If you have anyone else out there capable of guarding PF’s, then… their names are Thomas, Gibson and Noah, and they’re all playing the 4 on offense, too. So I don’t get your point. The only reason Deng goes to PF is to get Rose, Hinrich/Pargo(blech) and Salmons on the court at the same time with Deng, and none of those guys are defending a PF.

Besides, positionality is usually defined by defense, anyway.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Sep 30, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scotter mentioned that

Luol’s time at PF in 2007 came during situations when the Bulls and their opponents were using 3-guard lineups. 82games lists three lineups with Deng at PF:

102 minutes with Du/Kirk/Gordon/Wallace
41 minutes with Du/Gordon/Griff/Wallace
32 minutes with Du/Kirk/Griff/Wallace

(Interestingly, after Wallace left, the Bulls paired Deng at PF with Gooden (07-08), but not with Noah (07-08, 08-09). Maybe a bulked up Noah changes that.)

The data suggests Luol is a better scorer at PF, but Bulls coaches don’t like Lu as a post defender. The harmony is capitalizing whenever the opponent goes small. That way, Luol will never have to guard Elton Brand, he’ll guard Thaddeus Young when the Sixers play Holiday/Green/Iggy/Thaddeus/Dalembert.

by YaoPau on Sep 30, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

All of that makes perfect sense.

and would explain why Luol scores so well as a PF. If the other team is going small, then he’s got a SF who’s almost always smaller guarding him, and the only other player who can challenge him is the opposing center. It’s got to be easier to work inside at that point then when the opposing PF and Center are both in the game.

by runningman on Sep 30, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

That’s a pretty airtight way to interpret the numbers. For all the data that shows Luol’s a better scorer at PF, they don’t necessarily say that Luol at PF helped the Bulls. Rather, they show that Luol has had trouble scoring efficiently when the lane is clogged.

by YaoPau on Oct 1, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What can be done for Luol then?

Definitely being a running team helps. Don’t give the slower PF and Cs time to get back on defense and get position.

This is why i’m so big on getting Bosh. To me he’s perfect for not only being efficient and getting to the foul line as well as anybody, but he will draw the opposing PF out, opening some space in the lane for both Derrick and Luol. Sag into the lane at your own risk, leaving Bosh open at the key.

I don’t just think it’s okay that Bosh loves the midrange shot, I prefer it. If we don’t get big men who can reliably shoot, Luol will only get high percentage shots on fast breaks in the future. Let’s face it, Luol isn’t going anywhere. The worse he plays, the less likely he gets moved. Might as well consider him when you’re configuring your team.

by runningman on Oct 1, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Add a 3pt shot?

We need another 3pt threat in our starting lineup, and I’d rather have Luol learn than Rose. Luol’s go-to shot is the deep corner-2 anyway. If he makes 30% of his corner 3s, it’s a net improvement.

by YaoPau on Oct 1, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why wouldn't the Sixers field this squad?

Dalembert, Brand, Young, AI.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 1, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Terrific work here, Yao.

My only concern would on defense. Not necessarily just in terms of the post – JJ is bulky enough to take that on – but in weakside shotblocking. A pairing of JJ and Luol means we don’t have a forward capable of guarding the rim, and with our porous perimeter D…

Still, I’d love to see Luol at 4 for stretches. I do wish, however, that I had faith in an experienced coaching staff that would take advantage of all this versatility.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Sep 30, 2009 9:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

James Johnson was actually not a bad shot blocker in college. He blocked 5.0% of all shots

while he was on the floor according to www.kenpom.com. That put him at #9 in the ACC for shotblocking. However, that’s less than half (!) of rate at which Tyrus blocked shots in college. Tyrus blocked an astounding 11.9% of shots while he was on the floor. Crazy.

1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box

by fundamentallysound on Sep 30, 2009 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This will all depend on two factors

1) We have a center that is actually a bruiser that will take on the offensive muscle in the paint. Wallace did this. Miller can do it. Noah, meh, hopefully. Perkins pretty much owned Noah in the back down situations.

2) We’re the f-ing best team in the NBA at tapping the defensive rebounds to our teammates. Mr. Wallace again.

Anytime I see Vinny or any Bulls official talk about “getting back to where we were” the first thing that comes to mind is how good the Bulls were in 06-07 at getting the loose balls and tapping them to their teammates. Doc Rivers calls the loose balls 50/50 opps. I like that. But that tapping on the rebounds is really key as well. Rose and Hinrich will get a lot more boards if they’re getting tapped balls in and around the upper circle.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 1, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If the Bulls want a PF, then go get Stoudemire, Bosh!!

I’m sick of this junk the Bulls have going on with players masquerading as something they aren’t. Luol Deng needs to just become the best damn SF he can become and if we want a PF then we need to go get a high quality one. Great teams don’t win championships with gimmicks. They win because they are simply better than the other team. Luol Deng at PF won’t make the Bulls better than other teams. Luol Deng at SF and Stoudemire or Bosh at PF gives us a shot at fielding a team that is better than others. I like that idea much better.

I thought the whole idea behind getting rid of Gordon was so that the Bulls wouldn’t have to keep going small. Get Rose, Salmons, Deng, a REAL POWER FORWARD, and Joakim Noah out there and see what we can come up with.

by lexdiamonds0730 on Oct 3, 2009 3:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the problem with that is, of course, it's not that easy to just "go get Stoudemire or Bosh"

1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box

by fundamentallysound on Oct 4, 2009 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course I understand it's not that easy, but the fact remains that...

…the Bulls need to either find or develop a real power forward and stop having Deng masquerade as one. Unless Deng magically develops the post game I’ve been clamoring for him to develop for about 3 yrs now then it’s only more of the small ball junk that the Bulls have been trying to play for a while now.

It’s amazing to me how some folks where so quick to make BG out to be a villian because he was small for a SG yet they are the same folks who constantly want a lineup on the court with Deng at the 4 when the truth is the Bulls may win some games like that but that’s not gonna get it done. Let Deng stay at the 3 and find a real PF with a post move or two and let’s go from there.

by lexdiamonds0730 on Oct 5, 2009 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs