What should we expect from James Johnson?
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 2:03 PM CDT
115 comments
I originally posted an early version of this in the comments section of another fanpost, but since I got no responses to it I decided to make it a post of its own in order to spark some debate during the dog days of the offseason. To me, this is pretty interesting stuff -- even if it's not a very precise way to predict performance.
A list of the players drafted at #16 over the past 11 years in the NBA Draft:
2009: James Johnson
2008: Maurice Speights (PHI)
2007: Nick Young (WAS)
2006: Rodney Carney (CHI to PHI)
2005: Joey Graham (TOR)
2004: Kirk Snyder (UTA)
2003: Troy Bell (BOS)
2002: Jiri Welsch (PHI)
2001: Kirk Haston (CHH)
2000: Hedo Turkoglu (SAC)
1999: Ron Artest (CHI)
From 2005-2008 the 16th pick was pretty good, but took a fall from 2001-2004. 1999 and 2000 were obviously good years.
I find the 2000 draft to be particulary interesting for two reasons: namely, that Hedo Turkoglu is definitely the best player on this list (so far). Also, that 2000 NBA Draft is the year that the 2009 draft is most often compared to (in terms of it being an overall week draft).
How interesting that the draft that supposedly mirrors this year's draft yielded the best player at 16 out of the last 10 years? I realize this is mostly based on coincidence, but this is definitely far from bad news. Also, it seems as if most people view James Johnson as a goofy, eccentric (albeit very promising and full of potential) SF/PF combo player. A "tweener" if you will. Now, do we see anyone else on this list who fit that description when he came out of college (I believe after his sophomore year)? Yep, Ron-Ron.
Ok, the idea of this post is to set some sort of realistic expectation for our number one rookie during the 2009-2010 season and beyond. Do you think he will be more Hedo Turkoglu and Ron Artest or more Troy Bell and Kirk Haston?
Let the debate begin.
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I don't expect much from him
But at the very least I hope he can defend a little! Just little! So during the playoffs he can be thrown in for a minute or two.
Apparently the Bulls are focusing on defense this year… I don’t think James Johnson will be like anybody on that poll. I think James Johnson will be the next James Johnson.
I don't necessarily think his game will resemble any of the guys on the poll
I was just trying to see what people thought his level of success would be. Is he going to ever be a borderline All Star (ala Hedo or Ron-Ron)? Will he be an above-average role player for a couple years (ala Nick Young or Rodney Carney)?
That was mainly the question. Not game, more level of success.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 2:29 PM CDT reply actions
Neither of those guys are above average role players
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Sep 10, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably true
I guess I was predicting they would be above average role players based on potential. At least I think of Nick Young that way. Rodney Carney was definitely a stretch. And they’re definitely above average compared to Troy Bell and Kirk Snyder.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I would say Hedo and Ron Ron are better than your average role player
"Vinny continues to act like a crazed arsonist pouring gasoline on our season while running around carrying a torch yelling 'I’m in charge. Don’t any of you foolish knaves try to second guess me. I know gasoline is a liquid but I’m pretty sure it isn’t flammable and the odor gives me a natural high.'" - Tyrusmancrush
yfbb was responding to the following sentence:
“Will he be an above-average role player for a couple years (ala Nick Young or Rodney Carney)?”
Hedo and Crazy Pills are mentioned in the first one:
“Is he going to ever be a borderline All Star (ala Hedo or Ron-Ron)?”
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
blech
there should be some kind of intermediate option between Joey Graham and Ron Artest, no?
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Sep 10, 2009 2:38 PM CDT reply actions
So you think James Johnson will be somewhere between
Joey Graham and Ron Artest in terms of productivity? I can live with that at #16.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
that's a huge gaping hole of difference.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Sep 10, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, does anyone else find it interesting
almost half the guys on this list are/were affiliated with Chicago or Philly in some way? I guess that just speaks to the mediocrity of our franchises that we’re always picking 16th…
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 2:56 PM CDT reply actions
Just thought I should mention
There were some good players picked after 16 in those drafts too so it’s not like we can really go by that. Danny Granger and Josh going 17 immediately came to mind. I don’t see James Johnson having much an impact this year although he certainly has the talent. I think it will take him a couple years to figure out how hard he needs to work to be a good player at this level.
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
Meant to say Josh Smith above
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
Yeah, I know this is not accurate in the least as far as a predictor goes
as you can see by the names on this list — draft position hardly matters. I just thought it was interesting to look back and see what kind of value other teams were able to get out of the 16th pick. As expected, sometimes really good value (Turkoglu) and sometimes no value (Welsch).
Personally I think JJ will max out at about 16 ppg and 6 rpg somewhere around his 4th or 5th year in the league. But who knows? He could never average double figures ever or he could be a perennial All Star. Only time will tell.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
nick young?
i figure he will be like a carney (one of my favorite players to get in 2k!) athletic wingman, nothing special but a decent player, great athleticism and is decent on both ends of the floor. No glaring weaknesses but nothing spectacular except his athleticism…
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
I think James Johnson will spend the next 2-3 years
as a good back up forward in the league. I think his ability to handle the ball at his size, his court vision, and his ability to play the 3 and the 4 will help him in the league and make him valuable to the Bulls, who need depth.
Whether he becomes any more than that depends on whether he develops a specialized skill. Will he be a good enough scorer or distributor to ever start? I’m doubtful. I want to see what he looks like when he’s in better shape. Is he strong enough to bang with 4’s? If so, than he may be able to become like a modern day Anthony Mason with more offensive skill. I originally judged him a poor man Carmelo, but I don’t believe he has a knack for scoring.
Worst case scenario =he becomes a low percentage shooter who doesn’t get to the line enough and who can’t rebound or defend well enough to stay on the floor.
Best case scenario = he develops his mid range and long range game allowing him to take people off the dribble despite his relatively slow first step. He adds muscle and proves to be strong enough to be a good rebounder. He becomes a high end NBA player, not quite all-star but still valuable.
by Basketball Smurf on Sep 10, 2009 5:11 PM CDT reply actions
I like the Anthony Mason comparison
if he turns out to be that type of player (he does have the skill set), then I will be extremely happy.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 10, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
JJ reminds me of
Boris Diaw, that would be a nice outcome….
I think James Johnson will be an average level NBA player (hovering around 15 PER for most of his career, but not as a rookie) over the course of his career.
He’ll be adequate as a starter on teams that have stars at other positions, but no star himself. Otherwise, he’ll probably remain best suited as a backup that swings between the 3 and 4 spots. I like his game and think he could outperform this prediction, but I think the odds of that aren’t super high.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 10, 2009 8:05 PM CDT reply actions
I think that's a very fair assessment
I would like to hope that we could get an 18 PER from him in his 3rd or 4th year, but I’m not sure that’s realistic. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 11, 2009 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I think it isn't really fair
to expect a guy coming off an injury like Deng to not only have a great year but to have a year BETTER than his previous best year ever. It might be what we need out of Deng, but the chances of him doing it are extremely slim. It wouldn’t have even been a sure thing even if he was coming off of a healthy year.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Crap, this was supposed to go on a different post.
Damn Firefox and their multiple tab technology. yfbb, can you delete this? I’ll repost it onto the other thread.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Call me crazy, but I see Johnson being a less perimeter-oriented Nocioni
Just as aggressive (or dumb) on offense, lots of energy. The added bonus is that he seems to have some playmaking ability for a forward and has more athleticism. He might just be an average player, but if he can play both forward spots and not be a total sap on the defensive board, it’s a nice option to have.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
1/2 or maybe 1/3 Carmelo Anthony. Poor man's Melo baby!!!
D ROSE D WADE DESTINY DYNASTY
by Juan dela Cruz on Sep 10, 2009 11:06 PM CDT reply actions
I think he's Ryan Gomes 2.0
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
I'd take Paul Pierce.
With defense and jumping ability…. which sounds like Scottie Pippen… who just kinda did everything.
I have seen a QB and it was good.
1) There is no one in the world would not take Pierce with a 16 pick.
2) From what ive seen Pierce is a very good defender, both in team and iso situations.
ok.. I guess I'll lazily reply.
1) what?
2) Nobody plays defense in the NBA anymore because of the rules and refs. I wouldn’t call him a very good defender.
I have seen a QB and it was good.
1) I didnt put "who" between "world" and "would".
2) Certain people keep asserting this, but 95% of the classic games I watch on NBATV from the 70s, 80s, up to the mid 90s tell me that only a few people even used hand-checking to stop opponents. and I will say this: there is more effort by the individual to play defense now than there was in 1990. as for the refs, I think hollinger once pointed out that there are less FTA per FGA in the NBA now than there were in the jordan era, so it doesnt seem like refs are obtruding on defense.
If James Johnson is worse than LeBron James I am going to be disappointed
Check it, what what. Word.
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
bulls will be lucky to get five points an five rebouns per game from this man
If you dont like me please ignore me and my posts
The Pirates,Reds,Royals, and Padres are not major league teams
If that happened in less than 15 minutes a game, which is probably what he's going to play,
that’s not half bad …
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
that'd be around 12 points and 12 rebounds per 36 minutes, which would be odd for a SF.
Those are numbers that are closer to those of a PF.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 18, 2009 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
It'd be odd,
but it wouldn’t be half bad. :P
angryandy’s the one who said 5 and 5, not me.
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
Well, Tim Thomas from the Suns Tim Thomas?
or Tim Thomas with the Bulls Tim Thomas?
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 11, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
James Johnson seems like he has huge bust potential, no?
Consider the factors:
- We drafted him as a 22-year old sophomore
- His numbers in college were just okay
- He was a star player on a talented team that completely nosedived last year
- He has a reputation for horrific shot selection
- There are concerns about his work ethic now
- He’s undersized at his college (and expected NBA?) position (PF, just 6’7" without shoes)
- He’s a mediocre shooter that rarely gets to the line
- He isn’t known as a good defender
Who in this draft had more bust flags than Johnson? The work ethic sticks out to me more than anything, since he has so much he needs to work on to become an effective player.
I can’t pinpoint a guy who I’ve only seen play a few games, but all that poor man’s Paul Pierce / 15 PER / good NBA backup stuff seems wildly high to me. Obviously he has the talent (and really great passing and vision) to be an effective player, but if a year from now we’re calling this a completely wasted pick I wouldn’t be surprised.
by YaoPau on Sep 11, 2009 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Its the offseason, of course there is optimism.
He will probably play about half the Bulls games next season, and make a marginal impact as a rookie…in a couple of seasons, I could see him as a rotation player on a playoff team…
Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?
I don't know if a #16 pick is a bust unless he is out of the NBA
you don’t expect a 16 pick to be a world beater. That said, I don’t think he will be a bust. I don’t agree with a lot of the Bulls front office decisions, but the Bulls have a pretty good track record of identifying 1st and 2nd round picks who can play since the Fizer debacle. Not only have we’ve been strong picking in the first round, where the worst picks are probably Tyrus and Curry, but we’ve been pretty good in the 2nd round with guys like Lonny Baxter, Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, Duhon and Aaron Gray. As to your points:
- We drafted him as a 22-year old sophomore
I don’t understand people’s obsession with age. It matters far more how much organized basketball he has played than whether he is 21 or 22.
- His numbers in college were just okay
- He was a star player on a talented team that completely nosedived last year
His numbers, in my mind, were actually pretty good for college player. He averaged 15 pts and 8.5 rebounds on 54% fg shooting in 30 minutes of playing time. Because there was other talent on that team I don’t see how you can say those numbers are just okay. And as a Arizona fan, I am well versed in star players on talented teams that nosedive. Andre Iguodala did fine. So did Stoudamire. I don’t think the overall team success reflects too heavily on JJ.
- He has a reputation for horrific shot selection
But he shot 54% from the floor. So perhaps that reputation isn’t justified.
- There are concerns about his work ethic now
And those concerns were rebutted by the very same blogger.
- He’s undersized at his college (and expected NBA?) position (PF, just 6’7" without shoes)
I think Johnson is the good kind of undersized – the right kind of tweener. The difference between Johnson and a guy like Fizer is that Fizer was undersized but didn’t have any perimeter skills to take advantage of slower, bigger opponents. So you had a 6’6 Fizer trying to out muscle and post up guys 2, 3 and 4 inches taller than him. That doesn’t seem to be Johnson’s game. He can handle the ball, he is comfortable and probably prefers taking bigger guys off the dribble. So though he may be a bit undersized, he has skills that will help him overcome that. If he can hold his own on the boards, than he should be able to get away playing minutes at the 4.
- He’s a mediocre shooter that rarely gets to the line
I think this is a problem. If he wants to play, he is going to have become a good mid range shooter. But you could say that about almost any power forward entering the league. He gets a consistent 18 ft jumper, and he will be extremely difficult to guard, especially at the 4.
- He isn’t known as a good defender
When has this stopped any rookie before?
by Basketball Smurf on Sep 11, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 6 recs
This.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 11, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Good post
And I agree with most of what you said, mostly because I think we’re mostly on the same page here.
Johnson can become an effective player, there’s no disagreement. I watched him in summer league and felt good about the pick. He showed some skills (handle, passing ability, good stroke on his jumper) that if honed, could make him a unique asset.
That said, red flags are red flags, and just because he can overcome them doesn’t mean they aren’t there. There’s a dozen+ reasons why 15 teams passed on Johnson, meaning the optimistic expectations on this thread (16ppg eventually, 15 PER, etc) are just that – optimistic. High upside guys drafted #16 don’t also come with high floors.
No they don't, you're right
But if you look at the high ceiling, low floor guys drafted at 16 recently (Maurice Speights, Rodney Carney, Hedo Turkoglu and Ron Artest are the ones that qualify, to me) they’ve all actually done pretty well.
Again, this doesn’t mean a lot, but a trend is a trend. I guess Jiri Welsch qualifies as one of those types of players that failed.. but whatever. I give it maybe a 20% chance that JJ’s a complete bust; I think it’s more likely that he is a solid rotation player for the majority of his career, and even a quality starter at certain points.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 12, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions
You have to remember what team he was drafted to.
The Bulls don’t seem to invest a lot of time in their players. Noah got better when he hired his own help. Tyrus seems invested in guys outside of the Bulls program. Gordon did his own thing. I have a feeling he isn’t going to get a lot of playing time and will have a season full of the organization slipping snide comments to the press about his work ethic, weight, etc in the same way they’ve done with Noah and the others. Then maybe by his second or third year he’ll hire his own help and maybe start on a better path.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
by cranscape on Sep 12, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hasheem Thabeet
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
by stupidgenius on Sep 12, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm telling you this kid is a power forward
You don’t have small forwards in the league with his body type. All of the good small forwards in the league are athletic, long, and not slightly fat. If the Bulls wanted a good shooting guard, small forward, I think Sam Young would have been a solid choice. I think JJ will have decent production off the bench even though I thought Johnson was the 3rd of 4th best player on his team in college myself.
Possibly so
but he was drafted the highest (does that make the Bulls smart or stupid?). I think he has the best pro potential out of all those guys on the team — Jeff Teague, Aminu, etc… Aminu has far more bust potential than the other two and Teague is even more of a tweener than JJ.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 12, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Paul Pierce….Carmelo Anthony…Linas Kleiza….LeBron
There are some super-sized SFs in the league…but that being said, JJ does need to lose weight.
None of these guys are like Johnson
Pierce only compares because he’s tall and not ripped but that’s it, Carmelo is more agile and can play at a high level in the post and on the perimeter, Kleiza is an athletic strong bodied player, and Lebron ………I wont even compare the two. The biggest difference is Johnson is a banger with a little range, and a little ball handle skills. If the Bulls think Johnson will be able to chase Rudy Gay, Trevor Ariza, Ron Artest, or the really good small forwards, they have a rude awakening coming!
I would say that Johnson is the more agile player.
Melo, if anything, is a bit stiff. His game isn’t very fluid, kinda old school. He’s legit, no doubt(top 5-10 IMO), but he’s not a very fluid/agile player.
You brought up body type, and Pierce is a perfect example. Both have 14-16% body fat and are both tall and athletic.
Melo is not more agile. Johnson hung with him in any athletic measurement.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Also, has anyone SEEN James Johnson breakdance? That's agility few in the game have. :-)
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 15, 2009 12:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Brothers in Wyoming is strange
The fact that they break dance, is even stranger! I hope dude dont really think break dancing is still the thing. I can imagine him in a Atlanta night club dancing like Turbo. A big 6’7 245 pound ninja in a club poppin’ talkin bout, play that Africa bambaata. Wearing a thriller jacket with one glove, and patton leather steel tip shoes!
LOL
Dude probably still drinks Tab and watches Ghostbusters every night. Listens to Rick Asley and thinks it’s bomb as hell.
Mutha fuckin’ slap bracelets!
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 15, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Breakdancing still is the thing.
Netflix “Planet BBoy”. Seeing it in dance clubs and poorly done by suburb wannabes in the ’90s almost killed it, but it is coming back in the form it should be in.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Breakdancing comin back is one thing...
what I’m trying to figure out is if breakdancing ever went out where JJ is from. We’re talking about Wyoming here, not exactly your fashion capitol. I think JJ is gonna say something real corny in his first interview like…" Rose is totally radical, Chicago is super fresh and I drink Tab. I’m audi 5000" I’ll die if he says that!
Welcome to Wyoming, Yellowstone, the Wind River Range, Jackson Hole, and a whole lot of nothing
except Casper, Cheyenne…well, you get the picture.
HAH
he’s moving up my list too, especially if he rocks the curl son!
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 16, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions
u r sick
you had to be laughing while writing this…
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
have you ever SEEN paul pierce or melo? not exactly skinny guys and definitely about
the same build as James Johnson. They happen to also be the best SFs not named LeBron in the league.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 12, 2009 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions
JJ is 6'9 245, Pierce 6'7 235, Melo is 6'8 230
I’ve seen all of these guys play since college, and imo the three don’t have similar games, and JJ isn’t even in the same position. He (JJ) cannot defend these Small forwards, in case you forgot these are some of the small forwards in the league.
Lebron James
Shawn Marrion
Tayshaun Prince
Melo
Andre Iguodala
Corey Maggette
Caron Butler
Danny Granger
Josh Smith
Hedu Turkoglu
Rudy Gay
Luol Deng
Now think about these guys game, and body type, do you really think JJ can chase these guys up and down the court and he’s 6’9 245 pounds? The guy was a banger in college with a little range, he wasn’t a Demarr Derozan, or a Sam Young, or a Stanley Robinson from Uconn. So again I’m saying the Bulls drafted JJ to play the 4, and if they didn’t they are in trouble!
And think about this
The Bulls have been criticised for being weak in the paint, and the big’s are considered small. So they draft a big bodied forward who’s got the same height as your current power forward only he’s 20 pounds bigger. Without even seeing JJ play one would assume he was selected to fill the hole in the middle. This is why the Bulls selections were kind of bad to me, if you want Johnson fine, but the very next pick you get another power forward instead of getting a legit guard or small forward like Ellington or Sam Young who I think will be a sleeper for a loaded Memphis squad. Now the Bulls have a need for a shooting guard or back up small forward since they let BG go and they didn’t address it.
JJ is not 6'9, he's 6'7.
This information is not hard to find. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Johnson-5053/
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 13, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
James Johnson is going to rarely guard these players, I don't know what you're talking about.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 13, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, James Johnson is 6'7"
i.e. almost identical build to Paul Pierce. That being said, I think JJ sees time at both SF and PF this year, probably about 5-6 mpg or so at each.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 14, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions
A poor-man's Carmelo Anthony is about the best comparison there is for Johnson.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Unfortunately
said poor man is very poor.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 15, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions
maybe. or maybe not. we haven't even see him play a minute of actual NBA ball.
he could be a 75 cents on the dollar version of Melo for all we know at this point. I’d say a poor man’s Melo is a pretty accurate assesment, no need for further reducing the metaphorical poor man’s Washington stack.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 15, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
True dat
If he turns out to be 75% of Melo, then I will consider drafting him at 16 a success.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 16, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
My things is....
…I don’t know if 75% of Carmelo Anthony can exist as a third or fourth or even bench option.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I'm kind of surprised that Hedo Turkoglu is in the lead on this one...
He’s had the best career (all things considered) of any player on this list in my opinion. That’s setting the bar pretty high for JJ. Do we think he’ll ever be a $55 million dollar player? A top 3 player on an NBA Finals team? That would be nice, but I think that’s setting expectations a little too high.
I think the Nick Young comparison is a pretty good one, in that he has a role on what could be a solid team and he has the potential to be a starter on a playoff team someday with the right development.
But man, if we get a Turkoglu-type player out of James Johnson I will be more than pleasantly surprised.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 12, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions
Looking at the roster
He’s going to need to play and contribute at least 20 or so min a game in my estimation. Basically those minutes Nocioni used to get. If the starters are Rose, Salmons, Deng, Tyrus, and Noah with Brad Miller and Hinrich off the bench, there’s nobody else to spell Deng on the roster off the bench. Also nobody to spell Tyrus other than the rookies. I suppose VDN could slide people around a bit by playing Noah and Brad together to spell Tyrus and move Salmons to the 3 and play Hinrich at the 2 when Deng needs a rest. Even with that, he’s going to need to play some of those minutes. I expect maybe 7-8 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 ast in 20 min from JJ.
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
I would consider that a good first year from the rook
That being said, I definitely don’t think he’s going to consistently get 20 mpg this year. It’s certainly possible (especially if Deng gets hurt again, which I guess is likely), but if we can stay mostly healthy this year I see JJ ending up with about a 12-15 mpg average.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 12, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
20 minutes would be very high for JJ without a major injury to one of the top 7.
Hinrich and Rose takeup 70 of the 96 backcourt minutes. Salmons will still be able to play nearly all the minutes at SF that Deng doesn’t. Noah and Miller will definitely play significant minutes together in addition to manning the center position next to Thomas. Johnson’s a project and he’s not looking at significant minutes this season without something going seriously wrong.
I fully expect Deng to be injured again this year. So I wouldn't be surprised if we got
an extended look at JJ during those times in which Deng is on the bench with some nagging injury. I’m just pessimistic until proven otherwise with respect to Deng and his health. Other than that, though, I agree with you, there are very few minutes available for JJ.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Sep 12, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions
You're right if everyone stays healthy
I just have serious doubts that neither Deng, Hinrich, Salmons or Thomas will have some injuries at some point. I think he will have an opportunity come the beginning of the new year to get some minutes and end up averaging about that more or less.
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
Deng
is he healthy yet? ….i mean he hasnt played for like 8 months lol
"One good thing about being wrong is the joy it brings to others"
look at these Paul Pierce college highlights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BAzagOYYP0&feature=fvw
now compare JJ in this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qTVbrGZXVY&feature=related
Pierce and JJ, aren’t built the same! JJ has some agility, maybe if he loses 15 to 20 pounds he’ll be able to defend the other small forwards if he was truly drafted for that position. You generally dont see players that big playing the 3 position. JJ’s college bio says he’s 6’9 and 245, but since a few of you say he’s 6’7 that’s even worse, he’s 6’7 245! Add to that a 82 game schedule, he will struggle defending more athletic small forwards! He seems like a tweener to me though! He should be productive though!
If he gets to 240 lbs, he will be fine guarding 3s. He is a classic tweener though…needs to extend shooting range.
Anyone know how his rebounding was in college?
8,5 rpg
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
What would 40-50% of Melo be?
A 10 ppg, 3 rpg guy who doesn’t play a lot of D? I would say that would be a slight disappointment.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Sep 16, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Please educate yourself about the "reply" button.
This is getting tiresome.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Hahaha, that's so ironic.
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
by stupidgenius on Sep 20, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
LOL
I was thinking the exact same thing.
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
I believe he was directing that at you
because you replied to PORCH1post above without using the reply button.
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
And by you
He means C Smoove.
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
by stupidgenius on Sep 20, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions
LOL
Yeah I should have clarified that.
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
The first three words of your post make a song!!!
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
The problem with James Johnson is that he's not good enough to be a star player,
and he doesn’t do anything well enough to have a niche as a role player early on. This is boom or bust pick. He needs to really improve as a shooter.
hence why i went with rodney carney
rodney carney is a pretty athletic guy, but not overly athletic where he can just do things others cant (tyrus would be one of those overly athletic guys) hes a decent shooter, but not great enough, decent slasher….and then he isnt someone with tons of intangibles either.
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Sep 21, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Well if the Bulls are gonna suck
at least they got a 6’7 245 pound break dancing karate kid to entertain us periodically. I’m officially a JJ fan folks! Word up!
AT LEAST!!!
hah!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
top 5 rookies
Because he is in bulls uniform, and bulls forward is so inconsistent. I expect JJ to be at least the top 5 rookies in the ranking this year. Also, will have a chance in the rookie game in Dallas.
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