Worrying about being a contender when there are already supercontenders
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 24, 2009 6:42 PM CDT
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PrintA long-overdue link is in order, to this piece at Spurs blog 48 Minutes of Hell regarding the Spurs (and owner Peter Holt's) decision to choose the summer of 2009 as the time to forge into the luxury tax:
The typically spend-conscious Spurs went counter-intuitive in a bad economy–they loaded up on the contracts other teams were resolved to avoid or shed. Holt bet a couple years of taxes against the hope of more championships. His actions encouraged the on-going high stakes gamble between a tiny band of supercontenders. When the Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson, the language at the table was unmistakable. Holt was saying "We’re going to see the Lakers’ bet. We’re going all in."
The post then defines those 'supercontenders' as those aspiring to win with four stars (instead of three), complemented by solid role players, and financed by a very high payroll. Namely the Lakers and Celtics, two teams that won the past two championships paying the tax.
It's an idea reinforced in this Peter May column over the weekend (ht: CelticsBlog):
The Celtics are going to be taxpayers for the third straight year, but they decided that having Kevin Garnett made it worthwhile. "We won the championship paying a heavy tax,’’ principal owner Wyc Grousbeck said. "We had reached the stage where that investment made sense and we are still there today.’’ So, too, are the Spurs. "Everyone trying to win a championship is spending. You have no choice,’’ said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. "The way it is now, if you’re going to compete, you have to spend the big bucks. It’s amazing how it has all changed in the last few years.’’ All the preseason favorites for the 2010 title (Lakers, Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, San Antonio) have payrolls over the threshold.
So while these 'supercontenders' are reinforcing, Jerry Reinsdorf aspires to be a conference finalist while laughing at those spending said money. Though he offered the idea of possibly going into the tax if the team was a contender and a star was available.
Now, the Bulls situation heading into this offseason is not quite analogous, but the point still remains that the Bulls had a tremendous opportunity to drastically improve their talent base by taking advantage of the poorer NBA teams. If not now than at the trade deadline. They were merely an alright team on the court, but they were rich with assets under their control with their best one still on his rookie deal, with several large expiring contracts.
Now the plan is to not only stay under the luxury tax, but get under the salary cap enough to sign a free agent. And if they're very fortunate and the risk pays off, there's another star coming to pair with Rose. And then they'll have to fill in the rest of the roster, a process that can start with Rose and unnamed other star, but would still have work to do to get towards contention (think the fringe, like Nuggets, Blazers, and Jazz) and then even more towards 'supercontender' status, work including going into the luxury tax. I hope Reinsdorf is up to that challenge, though his actions in the past year-plus make me far more skeptical of it than previously.
But what I've seen this summer from the Bulls doesn't inspire me to think of them joining that class of franchise, but instead coming to mind when reading this about the Atlanta Hawks, a tier of franchise aptly described recently by Hoopinion:
The organization has demonstrated, if not an interest in contending for a championship, a willingness to spend sufficient money so as to increase the team's likelihood of making the playoffs and possibly wining a series once there.
(And financially, that actually may be a better way to go. )
Not that I'm completely dismissing the current course of action. It's just a reminder that it's a long road ahead and success is very far away.
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"Supercontenders" is a perfect term
I hope that comes into wide usage, because it really does explain the phenomenon that only about 5 teams really have a chance at the title.
You know what's an even more perfect term? Grade inflation.
How about calling those 5 teams contenders and not applying the term inaccurately to another 8-9 teams or so just because they managed to make the playoffs. It’s example #1,452,007 of lawyering (or perhaps marketing) the truth.
by Sports2 on Aug 24, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Agreed. You get a rec...
and I will take option 2, marketing the truth…it was coined by a blogger after all.
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
well, it's just labeling
I agree that technically there wouldn’t be such a thing as ‘supercontender’, you’re contending or not.
Point being that it seems like lately the contenders are amassing even more talent, and the definition of contender may not line up with Reinsdorf’s
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 25, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
The word "contenders" is vague and broad
Super, used as a prefix, means “above.” See supersonic (above-sonic speed) or superhero (more than an ordinary hero). It’s not inaccurate to call the Nuggets a contender, but using the broad term contender for teams that range from the Jazz to the Cavs does not admit degrees. That’s the function of prefixes in our language, to add further definition to a concept.
How much extra revenue does each playoff series generate?
Millions? Enough to justify the luxury tax?
I know it's pretty high...
Given increased ticket sales, More revenue from tv contracts, added merchandising if the team makes it to the Conference Finals and more for the NBA Finals.
I know on NBA 2k8 you can have a Lakers esque team with a 90-100 Mill payroll, paying 30 sum milion luxury tax and still have a few million left over. But what does that really tell us now…
Every time I think about where the Bulls are relative to the rest of the league
and how far they have to go to become legitimate contenders, and the high likelihood that the 2010 free agents go nowhere, I get really bummed out.
This organization has no interest in playing for championships, and as a fan, that really, really sucks.
1. Cut a hole in a box
2. Put your Kirk in that box
3. Make some team open that box
by fundamentallysound on Aug 24, 2009 7:25 PM CDT reply actions
money, money, money
moooonnneeeey!
The only way you can avoid making a mistake is not to make a decision . Our Owner´s philosophy-
Those Super Contenders...
are a BITCH!
If we aren't careful, the leanness we now feel will be the starvation of those we serve.
by Chi 'Till I Die on Aug 24, 2009 10:12 PM CDT reply actions
"I hope Reinsdorf is up to that challenge, though his actions in the past year-plus make me far more skeptical of it than previously."
Matt, could not Reinsdorf’s actions the past year be construed to mean the exact opposite? Look at the expirings we’ve stockpiled plus draft choices and positions where we have more than one adequate player! Also, forget about the 2010 FA’s. Concentrate on those teams above the LT and think three team trades.
i dont know but
somehow i dont get the same vibe from bulls management about creating a winning team in the future as i do from say like the okc front office. i see the thunder front office really trying to create a contender in the future and one that can make plenty of runs at a title. i dont see the bulls have a legit plan to do that at all. the thunder really did build around durant from day one and i dont see the bulls really doing that at all yet.
How do you explain letting your leading scorer leave for nothing
if you pretend to have a serious plan?
always a great contribution.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 17, 2009 8:33 AM PST
From all reports
i dont think the bulls organization thought of ben gordon as a piece to contention, blasphemy i know……
The logic: We let ben gordon go now, thats 11 million not yet commited, we commit money in 2010 on a true superstar, and if we luck out land a true all star (not a borderline like ben gordon probably is despite his scoring efficiency) We then have two true stars, we wait a few years which we can afford to do, and make moves to land a 3rd, once you have two getting a third is easier…and then you go after any player borderline allstar or better to become super-contenders…..i think keeping bg wouldve resulted in a difficult situation financially where you would have to get rid of not only hinrichs contract to contend for 2010, but also shed some future contracts so that you can sign one more all star in the future. I think its at least a safer move, because i think even with ben gordon on this team we might have trouble luring in a bonafide star. Wade would be repetetive here, lebron is probably gonna go where the money is (ohio baby, cleavland ohio!) kobe will stay pat, out of the big men you only have bosh and amare really that are worth choosing from one who has a few bad injuries and one who is more faceup than post. with gordon even a joe johnson signing would be pointless. and the worst part would be that the longer it took you to find a good free agent, the harder it would become with gordons contract obviously getting bigger and bigger every year (and i think its obvious that the bulls would have to offer more money than what the pistons offered him)
For that reason, its better to let ben gordon go, it gives you more options to choose from free agents (cuz now you basically have room for and need any player all-star or higher at any position except pg, it sounds bleak but it also means you have more options and players to choose from) and depending on the age probably front load the contract so that as the years go by, as drose gets better, you can then add another player or two to your roster
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Aug 25, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
But why not trade him for something a year or two ago.
Deeming him expendable isn’t as big of an issue is letting someone with value leave for nothing.
Indeed
THAT was the biggest mistake they made, heck they shouldve just gotten rid of him during the trade deadline after we got john salmons for even just a future first rounder from the grizzlies or something… i mean there had to be some sort of move available
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
Whiff 1, Whiff 2
I’m not as pessimistic as some here. I think we are set up to “make a move” to supercontending status (whether you like the term or not, the idea makes sense) with the way the roster is assembled and with Rose (luckily) at the core.
The question is: did Paxson learn from his first big whiff moving from contending to supercontending (ie, missing on Garnett, Gasol, Kobe etc and locking in money with Wallace) or will history repeat itself?
I think Reinsdorf is fine with letting his GM’s put their necks on the line (see Kenny Williams) and firing them if it blows up. Does Paxson have the balls to go for it? Haven’t seen it yet. I even wonder if Reinsdorf in some way doesn’t even * discourage * him from making a chancy move so he never has to fire his would-be son….
by RichKarp on Aug 25, 2009 11:19 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Interesting . Still we know the answer already... Paxson is a 2.4% CD investment guy. No risks
Do you remember playing basketball while you were young and there was always this kid that you never had to play defense on because he was already on self-check. Dorf knows Paxs is on self-check 24/7.
Kenny Williams is a completely different personality.
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
I'd just like to point out that
this post was severely lacking in gloom and doom, while well exceeding the quota on even-handedness toward Reinsdorf.
Matt, are you losing your edge?
In an attempt to get the old Matt back: “Overpaying Nocioni! Letting Ben Gordon walk for nothing!… Vinnie Del Negro… JIM BOYLAN! AAAAAAAUUUUGHH!” (barf)
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
I thought it could've been too gloomy, actually
interesting…
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 25, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
A 2-5 circus trip will cure what ails our leader.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Aug 25, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess what I'm saying is that
your post lacked the bluster that I’ve become accustomed to.
It was more fact-based.
Which, I agree, can be more depressing.
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
The quote from the Spurs is so fitting. If you want to win a title not just make the playoffs, you have to go all in. The Bulls just want to be “competitive” and make the playoffs so that they can keep filling the coffers without spending money.
you have to become competitive
before you can compete….i think the boston celtics were a strange anamoly, they were able to pull of alot of big moves all at once…at the time no one thought they would get it done, and afterwards gms became more cautious about moves like that…but ultimately how often does a team that struggled to make the playoffs one year, be in a position to win the title the next…?
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
it happens in sports
the Miami Heat did it. And wade was a very young player not a mega star at the time, when they rented Shaq. NY Yankees do it often.
The Lakers kept making incremental gains before they became lucky and landed Gasol.
Bulls execute loses continuelly by losing Gordon without trading him eariler, picking Kryppy and Tyrus and losing for nothing most likely.
Still significant incremental improvements must be shown if you really want to compete, the bulls have a win the power ball lottery mentality because they aren’t serious about competing anyway. Let’s bank on 2010 when nothng will happen so significant for them anyway.
Where would this team be without the powerball lottery in 2008? lottery bound again!
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
Well
“Where would this team be without the powerball lottery in 2008? lottery bound again!”
Pretty much where they are now, only without Rose. They seem to enjoy doing nothing to better themselves. Rose is just a, well, thorn in their side. Rose deserves more than what their five year plan was before they won the lottery but instead of putting it into high gear for Rose, hiring a real coach, creating a good environment for him etc, they are acting like Rose needs to sit on the stove for a few more years before he is ready for the org to take things seriously. Where is the urgency? You have your franchise player. He was ready to go from day one. Dicking around with a coach-in-training and letting assets go (BG is gone, Tyrus is on his way out) is really stupid.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Exactly. Before getting Rose,
the Bulls were “one superstar away”.
And guess where they are now?
“One superstar away.”
You’ve heard of the gift that keeps on giving? The Bulls are the team that keeps on needing. No matter what moves they make, they keep needing that one guy.
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
The Bulls were competitive.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Looks like we have to depend on luck
"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."
- fundamentallysound
by J Theory on Aug 25, 2009 7:09 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Bulls motto... "we depend on luck"
even getting mj was luck..
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
And without the luck of getting the #1 lottery pick and Rose
this team would have won only 25-30 games last year.
That’s all this team would have had after a DECADE of rebuilding.
by KentuckyBullsFan on Aug 26, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
San Antonio somehow EARNED Tim Duncan?
Without Duncan San Antonio would be nothing. They got lucky.
Bulls got lucky with #1 for Rose.
LOL
or we can depend on aaron gray….imagine he gets an 8 and 8 season
"One good thing about being wrong is the joy it brings to others"
8 points in 8 games for Gray.
"Whoever was responsible for pulling that offer [to Ben Gordon] off the table...bring him before me and I'll punch him right in the face " - Frederick Pfeiffer
by Granny Waiters on Aug 25, 2009 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
It took Jordan Seven Years too win his first...
I wonder how long it will take Rose.
With no logical explanation… i say 5 years.
My only supporting statement… Derrick Rose is the shit.
If he gets no support he won't win "shit"
Phil Jackson’s and Scottie Pippen’s don’t just appear out of thin air!
And as long as Paxson is heading the organization nothing will happen.
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
We will see next year
Who this man will be… that will appear out of thin air… after the Bulls Organization throws down a wad load of money.
I pray fo Wade!
It won't be a wad of cash, but he'll be a familiar nearing the end of his large contract...
maybe the return of Tyson Chandler to reunite him with Pargo …
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
Just watch this video
http://www.youtube.com/user/AngryAsianAce#play/favorites/85/Yv9UbeYPHbA
I get so pumped for the upcoming season after I watch it.
nice!
he really needs a side-kick or a partner in crime.
Roses plays at speeds in which the Bulls wing players can’t even visualize.
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
He pulled the trigger on Miller/Salmons and got a bunch of expirings for Hughes
Now, there are two milestones to watch: the trade deadline in Feb and 7/1/10. The way the Bulls have loaded up on expirings and have more than one good NBA player at several positions makes me think that Pax is especially focused on making something positive happen.
I’m starting to return to the “In Pax I trust” mode. Something big is going to happen before the Feb trade deadline/7/1/10. And it will involve three teams, and the third team may improve just as much or more than the Bulls.
Lastly, I sure hope Hunter turns out to be a good coach.
can't do it, sorry.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 25, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Ok.. lets look at Miller/Salmons trade
Sure initially is was a decent trade and far better than the garbage we gave up, but on the larger scope if the Bulls do win a championship with D.Rose do you think either Salmons/Miller will figure into the equation? I’d say mostly likely “NO” on both fronts! Neither will be on team and neither will be a return on investment for the Bulls via a future trade knowing Paxson. Imagine the trade deadline?? Bulls giving up expirings and taking on more long-term salary in exchange.. no way! they might be in a playoff race for the 8th spot therefore the excuse will be no chemistry changes.
That trade is just another temporary lateral Paxson move that had some glare upfront, but phizzed into nothing. And I didn’t even mention Tyrus…
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
Exactly….don’t get the wrong…getting rid of Gooden/Noc for Miller/Salmons was a damn good trade. However, Miller won’t even be in the NBA in two years. And in order for us to get a star, Salmons needs to opt out.
Neither will be on the Bulls when and if we ever get to the ECF/Finals….
Secondly, Miller is the only expiring we have. So we don’t have much cap leverage.
It’s time to win sooner than later. No more wait until 2010….wait until 2012…wait until 2016. We have a potential HOF player now so it’s time to make moves to try and win a title in the next couple years when older teams like Boston and San Antonio will fall off due to their stars being old and/or injured.
It seems to me the front office is happy with the ATL Hawks model, which is stockpiling young talent so you can make the playoffs every year and possibly win ONE series before getting bounced.
You stated in 100% correctly, still many of us keep saying Reinsdorf
“front office is happy with the ATL Hawks model”
And Reinsdorf is happy with the front office idiots lack of initiative and balls, therefore he just drops pigeon seeds (sometimes being 1000 miles away from CHI) and Paxson & Co. then think they were the ones who came up with the ideas and personnel changes.
Then Dorf then claims he doesn’t interfere or force any decisions. Actually he’s correct?
Now we can better understand why Reinsdorf urgently flew to Chicago and stop Paxson from quitting and then went so far as to hired him a press secretary and give him the title as surface “GM”, but in reality Paxson is still Dorfs pigeon seed picker upper. Dorf didn’t want to have to find another puppet and then go thru the long training process.
Reinsdorf’s recommended #1 best seller reading “Pooping on people – In 12 easy lessons ”
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
So what's that killer trade Paxson refuses to make that puts Da Bulls over the top?
I’d love to see what trade you have in mind to better the team. Or is it the Issiah Thomas model. Awesomely overpay your players and suffer the NBA tax.
I just hope these supercontenders don't come with superfans with superblogs
Or else we’re all super-fucked.
by NittanyCub on Aug 26, 2009 5:07 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
I don't know exactly why
but that just made me laugh out loud here at my desk.
by Rose Colored Goggles on Aug 26, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Thank god the Bulls don't play football
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
Man up
Bulls need a Duncan, Bryant or Garnett type of star to justify playing 1-1 tax on salary.
Ben Gordon ain’t it. Pistons tied up money with perimeter guys that will never win a championship.
Honestly, fans have the patience of a 6 year old waiting for XMAS.
Paxson’s put together a good team with cap space to grab an superstar. That’s better than most of the NBA franchises.
Mr Reinsdorf is that you?
"I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."- Michael Jordan
by bigballa10 on Aug 30, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
consider it paying for Rose then.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 31, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions
At least you didn't trade for Zack Randolph
Good job, non-Memphis Grizzlies.
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
[We can all be happy that we're not fans of the Grizzlies.]
I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]
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