Sleeper sell

as the quintessential outsiders view of the bulls— which is fine, because as you mentioned, we need to keep up the perceived notion of progress this season. Outsiders hear things like “the bulls have cap room in 2010”, “they’ll get Deng back and full seasons of Salmons and Kirk to replace BG”, and “maybe that Tyrus guy that I see dunking on people and swatting shots to the 5th row will really develop.” However, they don’t realize what us who follow the Bulls day in and day out (not just in fun to watch 7 game playoff series)— that we don’t really have serious cap room with Salmons, Tyrus, and Kirk all on board, that Salmons very well might have been a fluke last year (especially with regards to that 41.7% 3pt shooting arnovitz referenced), that great ball-handler Kirk Hinrich can’t really create his own scoring nor make great passes to set teammates up for easy looks, and that our coach was absolutely clueless for most of last season.

I thought the TH article was interesting. Those were NOT 3 teams I expected to see listed as sleepers.

I was thinking more in the lines of Toronto and maybe Miami (Riley just looks poised to make a huge trade before the deadline, I think he really wants to lock up Wade and that’s the most logical way to do it).

Dallas makes sense, I liked what he wrote about them and could see them being a 3-6 seed.

The problem is, Dallas has been right in the thick of things just about every year, so I’m not sure how much of a “sleeper” they are.

NO was right there two years ago and were really banged up last year in the playoffs, losing to the eventual conference runner ups, so it’s not like they had a terrible season.

So the first two teams might qualify more as “if they stay healthy they should be in contention just like previous years” rather than calling them sleepers.

The Bulls, however, would qualify as sleepers.

I liked your article YFBB, but I had one point to disagree with and that is your opening statement about his definition of a sleeper not being clear. It was clear to me. He writes:

“The favorites in each conference are easy to spot — they bear a striking resemblance to the teams that were playing on Memorial Day weekend. But which teams are lurking beneath the surface, ready to assume the role of improbable contender?”

To me, that means that these teams are sleepers to be contenders at the top of the conference, teams that have some chance of beating LA/Denver/SA or Orlando/Boston/Cleveland.

I’m not really sure how Toronto was not mentioned, they seem to be the most logical sleeper choice, especially after missing out on the playoffs last year and adding what is presumably enough pieces to keep Bosh interested the whole year (not to mention incentive to play well so he can get a max deal).

But to the Bulls side, he was rather optimistic for us, but I don’t see this being a 30 win season either way.

On average, it seems most people put us at a 6-8 seed this year. So if we don’t get hurt and our players improve more than expected, why would a 3-5 seed not qualify as “in contention” or a “sleeper year?”

I don’t agree with all the specifics in that TH article, but I think he was generally in the right ballpark, mainly if we perform a bit above expectation in the injury and/or talent improvement areas, we will likely be in contention. I think that’s a fair, albeit simple point to make. The rest was kind of nonsense because nobody really know if Salmons is going to play the 2 or 3 or split equal or inequal time or what. Nobody knows how well Hinrich will play with Rose at the 2, they didn’t play 1-2 together all that much last year, certainly not consistently all year bc of injury and other things. If Hinrich struggles early Salmons may get more playing time at the 2, or maybe Salmons will start at the 2 and Hinrich will backup both Salmons and Rose in a rotating 3 guard lineup. If TT comes out slow will Vinny go small ball with Deng at the 4 or will he revert to the Miller/Noah twin towers thing? I don’t think JJ or Taj will have much of an impact, but perhaps they get some playing time if TT struggles. What if Noah doesn’t take another step forward? Then we’re still weak down low.

My point is, there are so many “what if” questions for this team. They aren’t really bad or discouraging questions to look at until you remember who are coach is.

But to conclude, I think the article was fine in general, and besides your disregard of his definition of a sleeper, your article was good.

I think at best we are a 5th seed. Will probably win around 45-46 games. Tyrus is gone next year. If we have any injuries this year, we are so screwed. Especially if Derrick goes down for even a small period of time. Vinny is gone next year too no matter what.

We’ll see. I was thinking the worst earlier(38-42 wins) but for some reason I think things will come together and they will get finish around 46-36

Yea, I mean I can see plenty of scenarios where we only win 30 games, though I don’t think it is very likely. And I can see plenty of scenarios where we win 50 games, though I don’t think it’s very likely.

We definitely have the type of team that could have a very high ceiling or a pretty low floor, but I guess it’s that way with a lot of young teams that have had injuries and flashes of brilliance from some of their big men (Noah and TT).

But we do have a fairly unselfish team. Salmons may be a bit of a flow kill on offensive, but he picked it up well in the playoffs and contrary to reports in February seemed to have no problem coming off the bench or having his role changed on our team.

We know guys like Rose, Hinrich, Miller and Noah are incredibly unselfish and look to be pretty good team players.

I do think the biggest variable is our front court. If Noah makes leaps and bounds progress and Tyrus can keep improving along with Miller just staying the same, I think we’ll be a much more consistent ball club. We just got owned way too often by the talented, yet inconsistent bigs on other teams (Blatche is probably a banned word during practices).

Furthermore, I don’t see an improved defensive Rose and Hinrich/Salmons getting burned too often by another team’s backcourt, especially offensively. Some combination of Deng/Salmons/whatever should at least be average to slightly above average at the 3 all season.

So I will be looking at the big guys right away this season and I think in particular the play of TT and Noah will be a decent indicator as to how the regular season goes. But you guys are absolutely correct, we are very volatile this season.