What if 2010 FA's say  no?

 I got the idea for this fanpost reading this article from Doug last week: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-bulls-confidential/2009/08/what-if-lebron-wade-and-bosh-say-no.html
 
The quote in it that really got me thinking was this one

If all of the above fails we're looking at Luis Scola, keeping Tyrus Thomas, solving our needs through the draft and saving our money for another day.  That might actually end up being the most prudent path, but it will be tough to convince Bulls fans of that after throwing out the 2010 cap space plan as a reason for not coming to terms with Ben Gordon.

 

Now I have long been skeptical of this supposed 2010 "plan," especially considering that as currently constituted, if Salmons opts in and we renounce Tyrus (or vice versa-- if Salmons opts out but we don't renounce Tyrus) then we will probably only be about $13 million under the cap and won't be able to offer a max contract.  Even for arguments sake, if you want to assume that we get far enough under the cap to offer a max deal (moving Kirk, Salmons opting out along with renouncing Tyrus), it has been well documented that superstars rarely change teams in free agency under the current CBA, as the benefits to staying put often outweigh the benefits of relocating. 

This is where the "prudence" argument comes in-- under the current CBA, usually the players that relocate get "overpaid" and are often second tier stars.  Players like Joe Johnson (from Phoenix to Atl), Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turokoglu (this year), Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon, and Steve Nash (who wasn't a star when he went from Dal to Phx) are probably the biggest names to switch places via free agency under the current CBA, and almost all of them were considered overpaid at the time their deals were made.  This is why, as currently constituted, I don't think the Bulls can afford to be "prudent" next summer and avoid overpaying someone like Joe Johnson or Amare (provided his eye injury doesn't appear to be a problem this season) if/when Wade/LeBron/Bosh turn us down. 

As I see it, there are really two good ways to build a team-- there's the Portland/OKC model (which actually Paxson first used) which is burning everything down and rebuilding by getting under the cap and a plethora of high lottery picks.  We've already done that route and are likely no longer going to be bad enough in the near future to get a high lotto pick-- not to mention considering we have 1 whole playoff series victory in the post-Jordan era, so it's high time we start going for titles here and not tear it all down again.  The other model is kind of what I'll call the Orlando model, which is you get your young talent (they did it with Howard and Nelson-- our parallels to that I guess would be Rose, Noah, and hopefully Deng), and then fill in with free agents, even if you-- heaven forbid-- overpay for them, like Orlando did filling in with Turkoglu, Lewis, Pietrus, and now Bass, Carter, and Barnes as well.  As kind of an offshoot to that model is the Lakers/Celtics model, which is to get some good players and hope like hell someone is willing to dump a great player on you for very little. 

A lot of NBA experts like to rip on teams for "overpaying" players, but the fact of the matter is just because you are over the cap doesn't mean you are done making moves.  You can fill in around the edges with role players on MLE type deals, make trades with teams looking to dump money, etc.  For us, prudence should go out the window next summer.  I'm not the biggest Joe Johnson fan in the world, and I know that he'll be 30 by the time his next contract starts, but it's probably going to take something like 5 years 70 million to sign him away from Atlanta.  Is that overpaying for him?  Sure.  Is giving Amare the max overpaying?  Quite possibly, considering his poor defense and injury history.  However, we are not going to be able to contend if we are not willing to pay the tax; it is extremely difficult to contend without paying the tax-- the past 2 champions have been well over the tax threshold, and the final 4 teams left this year were all over the tax.  Giving big money to an Amare or Joe Johnson next summer should not be seen as the final move in contention, but just another move on the way to improvement, and there is little doubt that an overpaid Amare or an overpaid Joe Johnson will provide an improvement on the court.   After signing one of them, use the MLE or split it up on a couple other decent players.  Use next year's draft pick to add another useful piece.  If teams are looking to dump players, be in position to offer something useful in return for them.  Building a contender does not have to be an all or nothing proposition-- it can happen piece by piece, move by move, even if we are over the cap and over the tax with overpaid players.  Productivity and victories are the ultimate measures of success, not financial prudence, and after the shenanigans of this summer, the prudence needs to stop for the foreseeable future next summer.