Tyrus Thomas: can one 'break out' in a water-treading season?
It's become an annual summer tradition with Tyrus Thomas: trying to figure out where he fits. And I thought last summer would have been the last instance of these ruminations, the next year meaning either breaking out or staying enigmatic in production and personality. And the latter wouldn't mean a 'bust', as he's always been average in production. But I figured at this time last year that if it wasn't clear by 2009 whether he was a future building block, then it likely never would be.
And that breakout year didn't happen. He made some improvements in his game, namely improved jump shooting and free-throw shooting. Kept his status as being one of the few Bulls who could draw a foul, and stayed their best weak side defender.
But other facets fell off. He had a couple months of consistent minutes, but then was pulled in the playoffs for 4th quarters. His assist percentage plummeted (product of the VDN 'system'?), and most alamingly his rebounding numbers fell for the 3rd straight year. He still struggles more than he should to finish inside. And we still hear reports trickling out of the Bulls camp regarding Tyrus' difficult nature.
So does it mean I've given up? I don't think I'm at that point yet, he showed enough to make me still believe, and the Organization should enough blundering to make me believe it's more their fault than anything when it comes to lack of player development.
But what I think is worth investing, in both time and money, in Tyrus Thomas is hard to reconcile with what the team thinks. Because they're not in a context of building a winning team right now. There's dreams of a 2010 free agent, and Tyrus Thomas sits on that 2010 cap with a massive cap hold of his own as a potential restricted free agent. So if the Bulls do have the chance to sign a max FA (and they still have to move someone else first, if the cap is going down significantly. This is such a risky plan, argh.), they'd have to renounce the rights to Thomas and let him walk for nothing.
Shouldn't the Bulls learn their mistake from the Ben Gordon debacle, and be more proactive by moving Thomas now instead of having him hang in limbo for next summer? Maybe use what value he does have to get some money off the books?
Perhaps, if the deal was right. The potential Boozer deal would've been pretty fantastic, achieving these ends while still being a competitive team. Which are goals that are extremely hard to balance, and then even harder considering they'd still have to stay under the luxury tax for this season.
But what if Thomas, in a potential contract year, after a supposedly great summer, and with a big role on the team, makes a leap this season? I'd rather it be for the Bulls than someone else. If only to increase his trade value. If frontcourt stars are on the block this trading deadline, it'd help immensely if Tyrus can play himself into being a trade package centerpiece.
And that may be the best of what I hope for Tyrus going into this season. Between the Bulls angling for a max FA next summer, and the rocky few years between Tyrus and the Bulls, and seeing how Reinsdorf doesn't seem to pay for those who aren't his favorites, there are too many factors against Tyrus being a Bull long-term for me not to instead hope for other, less ideal if more likely, outcomes.
And it's sad to think how his play on the court may have little impact on that decision. Maybe it's been decided already he's not a keeper (hey, Reinsdorf said it himself they decided last year about Gordon!), or that he couldn't coexist long-term with Noah. But at the very least Tyrus playing well keeps the Bulls competitive, and helps in any deal. That's something.
It's tough that as a fan I can't just root for players to get good and stay, but the Bulls have a complicated (or perhaps just confusing to me) plan going. It could go as well as upgrading from Thomas to Bosh, or as poorly as seeing the Thomas experiment end with nothing but promises of James Johnson being the next big thing. Until his contract is up for an extension too.
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I feel you bro...
Tyrus has all of the physical tools and put together a couple good games. I’ve given up on the comps to Shawn Kemp but I still feel that, if given consistent minutes, T-Time could put up Kenyon-Martin-in-a-good-year type numbers, 16 and 8 or 9 with a couple blocks. I think he can be a good open floor trailer and weak side defender. I hope it’s this year, but I’m a cubs fan so I’m used to saying that EVERY FREAKIN’ YEAR…
It just seems a little odd to me
that this team would be content continuing to invest in the formative years of a player’s career without reaping the benefits of their prime. In the last ten seasons, how many players have played during the prime of their career with the Bulls? (all I can think of is Nocioni and his good was never that great; we haven’t had any all-stars this entire time!) Teams that draft kids at 19, send them away by 25, and sign their free agents back at 30 don’t win championships.
it's not THAT odd
when you consider the rookie scale.
We’re getting prime Kirk Hinrich.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions
So why wouldn't the Bulls trade away Hinrich for Steve Blake/Travis Outlaw again?
I hope it was the Blazers that said no to that idea (although that makes little sense too).
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
(I know the answer is that Hinrich is an organizational favorite.....)
But, umm, what is Derrick Rose?
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
The cash cow
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
For the next 5 years, then someone else will come along
The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.
by Ozzie Montana on Aug 2, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions
It's like we've become "Derrick and the Pieces"
And some vague future of success that somehow materializes out of… Gar PaxDorf? I’d actually put them in the mix for replacement in a few more years as well. 2010 doesn’t go perfect, and we have new GM amalgamation configuring Derrick and the Pieces.
I liked it better when I could just cheer like hell for Tyrus’ blocks and envision great playoff runs with him and Ben and Noc… wait, not Noc. Anyway, it’s hard to sink your teeth into cheering when there’s basically no commitment to anyone on the team other than Derrick. Might as well trade him too.
Hmm. How to end this positively… Nope, couldn’t do it. Wait, I’ve got it. I’m going to go open a nice cold beer.
by Bill Cartwright's Elbow on Jul 29, 2009 11:40 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
"massive cap hold of his own..."
That’s the hugh fly in the ointment concerning TT. It seems to me they have two choices: sign him to an extension this summer like they did with Kirk in a similar situation or trade him before the trade deadline. The bad thing about trading him at the trade deadline is what if he really blossoms?
well it'd get rid of the cap hold
but it’d still eat up their cap space, at whatever figure Tyrus’ starting salary would be.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 29, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions
They could sign him to an extension this summer...
Or at the very least, offer him an extension…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
by Dionysus2.0 on Jul 30, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
has there been ANY mention of an early extension?
he’s eligible. They tripped over themselves rushing to get other guys early extensions.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 29, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think he can "blossom" enough after the trade deadline to raise his value too much.
2 months vs. 3 1/2 seasons shouldn’t make him that much more appealing as a player. If he “blossoms” it will be for most, if not the entire, year. That either keeps the Bulls thinking they want him or, more likely, raises his trade value significantly.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
we've been saying for months now
that Tyrus is the next Ben Gordon (contractually speaking). GarPax will do their normal song and dance, spouting how much Tyrus means to them and to the organization, all the while his fate has already been decided.
The best thing that Tyrus can do this season is to play well for his next team. I have a feeling that Tyrus will be gone by the trade deadline. If he makes it to the summertime, then he’ll most definitely be gone then.
Tyrus isn’t one of the “kids”, so why would we even expect an extension of any kind to appear?
left shark - "Kirk needs to go and join Ben Gordon and L Deng somewhere else trade Deng and Hinrich they no good"
I have heard neither song nor dance....
From the front office…
They have not offered him an extension yet this summer, and from what I can tell, they are not going to…it appears they are taking a wait and see approach with Tyrus…if he shows next season that he is long term piece with the Bulls, I expect that he will get an offer on 7-1-10, if not, then he could be renounced for cap space…
Either way, I don’t see how this follows the BG saga…contractually.
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
by Dionysus2.0 on Jul 30, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
it DOES follow the BG saga
simply because I believe that Tyrus’ fate with the team has already been decided. Maybe they haven’t been so public with the song and dance in TT’s case because they know it can only work against them.
I fully don’t expect Tyrus to be with the team on 7/1/10, no matter what he shows this up-coming season.
left shark - "Kirk needs to go and join Ben Gordon and L Deng somewhere else trade Deng and Hinrich they no good"
by NormVanBeer on Jul 30, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
So, it follows because you believe something.
Not in the actual events as they have unfolded.
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
as the events unfold
we’ll both see
left shark - "Kirk needs to go and join Ben Gordon and L Deng somewhere else trade Deng and Hinrich they no good"
by NormVanBeer on Jul 30, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
You pretty much nailed the situation
the Bulls should offer Tyrus some type of offer, even if it is a lowball offer, just to get a gauge of what contract negotiations will be like with Tyrus. They obviously don’t want to commit to Tyrus long term and possibly lose out on 2010, but if that is the case than they should just trade him. Because the better he plays, the harder it will be to resign him. And the worse he plays, well, that doesn’t benefit anyone.
It amazes me the path that they are following on this. They are setting themselves up to fail. I mean there are 3 possibilities as I see it if the Bulls don’t trade or resign Tyrus:
(1) Tyrus plays poorly. He continues to be inconsistent and to bump heads with VDN. He gets pulled to play Noah/Johnson/Deng at the 4. He doesn’t finish games and his value diminishes on the open market. Sadly, the Bulls may be hoping Tyrus plays poorly and may be better off in the long term if he does!
If Tyrus plays poorly, maybe they can sign him for under the qualifying offer. He will have minimal bids on the market, especially since he will be a restricted free agent. Maybe you bring in a talented PF and you slot in Tyrus in as the athletic, possible game-changing back-up.
(2) Tyrus continues to be an enigma. In which case the Bulls have no idea what to sign him for. They can’t trade him. He, kind of like Gordon, has more value to the Bulls than any other teams just because the Bulls aren’t guaranteed of getting a better player than Tyrus to play the 4. There is the threat of some team outbidding the Bulls. The Bulls and Tyrus cannot reach a bargain. He is either completely let go for nothing or he accepts the 1 year QO and enters true Ben Gordon territory.
(3) The Pseudo Ben Gordon situation. Tyrus turns his game around and starts to reach his potential. He becomes part of the “young core,” fitting well with Noah and Rose. He supplants Deng as the young Bulls forward with the brightest future. And of course, he asks for $9-10 million a year. The Bulls can’t afford to resign him and bring in a top free agent. Of course they really don’t want to lose Tyrus for nothing, but since he such a colossal dick, it will probably improve team chemistry. The Bulls are either forced to pay top dollar for Tyrus (HA!) or dump him for nothing as they chase Bosh/Wade/Bron-Bron. In effect, at some point Tyrus may start to play so well, that it hurts the Bulls future prospects!
If Tyrus plays the PF position as well as Ben Gordon played the SG position the Bulls are screwed, because they aren’t prepared to pay him and he won’t be good enough to put the Bulls over the top. In which case they could let him walk for nothing and bad mouth him to the press, sign him to a QO (first pulling a fair offer off the table) with the expectation that he will just leave after 2011, or sign him to a big contract (which they won’t do.)
This of course, could be all avoided by locking him into a 3 or 4 year contract at $7 mil per year right now. The enigma price. The hedging your bets price. Of course, if the Bulls resign him, than the onus would be on moving Hinrich or Deng for expirings.
Its a shame, the Bulls have had Tyrus Thomas for 3 years, and still have no idea what they have.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 1:37 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
his qualifying offer
is $6.25m. I’m not sure the Bulls would even want to pay that, though they may have to if they strike out in free agency.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I still don't see how we strike out in Free Agency
Presuming the Cap goes down to $53M….we can offer a max to a guy (which I thought was 30% of the cap, or $15.9M), that added wtih our salaries plus options—putting Tyrus in at his $6.2M deal and a few others, would put us as $51.8M with the current salary structure (from SHAM).
Am I reading something wrong:
Here’s what I see:
Luol: $11,345K
Hinrich: $9M
Salmons $5.8M (player option but cap hold)
Rose $5.5M
TyThomas: $6.2M
Noah: $3.1M
Nelson: $1.0M
$35.9M is the locked in, adding the $15.9M MAX deal if the cap went down to $53M (which I think it won’t—my gut tells me) we’re below $52M AFTER adding a max guy like Wade, and at that point then we could talk extensions with Thomas, possibly Noah, etc….
I must be reading something wrong, cap guys let me know what I’m missing…
Thurston Moore is a rock god
That's a lot of supposing
And there’s nothing any team can really do…
I thought I figured in the cap holds…..It’s $57M this year right? I doubt with all the buzz about the marketing it will drop. They’ll find a way to make the rev’s match….there’s always ways.
Thurston Moore is a rock god
5 cap holds
plus whatever we pay our first rounder
also is nelson really guaranteed in 2010-11?
thats ludicrous if he is
i just keep answering my own questions
it’s a qualifying offer, so subtract nelson from your total, add the k’s of JJ and taj, add in 3 cap holds and the cost of a mid level first rounder, and that’s our cap figure
I forgot our first rounder next year
And the 2 first rounders this year….ugh.
THanks.
Thurston Moore is a rock god
um
you also forgot james johnson and taj gibson. so with the remaining 3 cap holds we’d have to fill out the roster, plus the contracts of taj and jj, even if the cap is at 53 mill (which is the high end of where its projected to be) i still dont think we’d be able to offer a max deal.
like i said down below, we need salmons to disprove that last year was a fluke and play well this season so that he opts out
no
what the Buls really need to do is either commit to the players they have or trade Hinrich. Because they won’t be able to open up the necessary cap space with Hinrich on the team.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
if salmons opts out
they’ll have enough room to offer a max deal with kirk and tyrus still on the cap. im also operating under the assumption that this front office will never just dump kirk for salary cap relief, so that’s why im saying the next best thing we can have happen is a great season and an opt out from salmons
LaMarcus Aldridge
Should of kept him. Maybe Tyrus Thomas will pull a “John Salmons” and figure things out when hes 30.
He's only got 7 years until then!!!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I don't see Tyrus Thomas as a trade chips, especially if he plays well
How many teams trade for players who are about to enter contract negotiations? Why would a team accept Tyrus knowing they are going to have to negotiate a contract with him and possibly risk losing him for nothing?
Take the Ben Gordon situation. Any team trading for Ben at the deadline might have thought they were getting a $9 million a year, top flight shooting guard. They would have had no idea that Detroit was laying in the weeds, waiting to offer $11 milliom. The situation is a bit different because Tyrus will be restricted, but you still run the risk of a team like Portland or Dallas coming in and setting the price higher than you would like.
If a team really likes Tyrus enough to trade for him. They will just wait until the offseason when the Bulls don’t extend the qualifying offer.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 1:49 AM CDT reply actions
I think the best you can "hope" for is getting a 2010 expiring player.
If Thomas incrementally improves again this year, that’s likely to be an 9th/10th-man sort of player. Maybe they can get a 2nd-rounder out of it. If he doesn’t improve, you’re looking at trading for a contract. There are plenty of teams who won’t be worried about the cap next year who would love to take a flyer on him if it only cost them their 12th-best player. The more he improves, though, the better the player they get. Best case scenario? I don’t know. I suppose it’s likely they get someone like Scalibrine or Steven Hunter or Brian Cook. Score a win for the Bulls!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Come on...
They got a first round pick for Thabo…I expect Tyrus is worth more at the deadline than a second round pick…especially if the pick is in 2010 from a team looking to clear space…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
by Dionysus2.0 on Jul 30, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
1+ >>>>>> 2 months
As Smurf said, Thomas will be less than 2 months from needing an extension. Thabo was an entire season + 2 months. That’s actually a pretty big deal.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Or less than two months from being renounced.
The result of which would be additional cap space for the team trading the first round pick (and it’s cap hold).
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
A team trading for a player wouldn't plan on renouncing him.
If they are trading for a player, they likely want to keep the player. Thus, they would like more time to evaluate said player. Therefore, the more time they would get, the more they would be willing to give up.
You must not think much of Tyrus Thomas to think a team trading for him would view him only as a “contract.” That’s not surprising.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
In fairness...
Ben Gordon had to agree to any trade this season at the deadline, because he would lose his Bird Rights..so I imagine there was little talk of moving him at the deadline…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
by Dionysus2.0 on Jul 30, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
They are not in the context of building a winning team period!
Just will ride Rose for the money.
No shame.
always a great contribution.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 17, 2009 8:33 AM PST
T Time
The problem is if he gets good next season, we’re going to want him to stay, and we’ll blame the Org when they trade him away.
zzzz
I’m tired of speculating on this. Wake me up if he actually gets consistently good.
Consistency from a "raw" "project" 22-year-old?!?! Hah!
I love laughing. Thank you. :)
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
This is basically what I said a month ago.
Trade him now for contract space. Scalibrine, Cook, Steven Hunter, Tony Battie. I don’t care. Someone shitty that will give guaranteed cap space* next year. If he does well, it will suck that much more when they don’t keep him. If he does bad, well, that sucks as a fan of his and the team.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I actually don't think the cap hold is much of a problem
They can simply renounce him if cap space is all that’s necessary, so the only way I trade him for an expiring is if the expiring is better.
The other trade I’d make is for a player still on his rookie contract, who’d be cheap next year and not impinge too much on the cap space. That’d seem the ideal move to make to me.
Unfortunately, those guys are preciously thought of by their own teams, unless they’re very likely to suck.
Also, even if they’d be cheap, they’d still claim some cap space. Of course, the Bulls still need to move Salmons or have him opt out, at least, in order to get that max space.
by Sports2 on Jul 30, 2009 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You just described Garpaxdorf's ideal date to the prom.
“The other trade I’d make is for a player still on his rookie contract, who’d be cheap next year and not impinge too much on the cap space.”
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Kurt is family!
That would be a weird prom date even for Jerry.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
by cranscape on Jul 30, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
that last point is the most crucial to me
even though there are signs that last year may have been a fluke season for Salmons, other than trading him, really the best thing we can hope for is that he has an absolute monster season not just because it’ll help the team, but because it would make him more likely to opt out. his contract is actually fairly reasonable, and he knows he’s not getting any younger, so if he plays really well this year I gotta think that he opts out and maybe he can get something like 5 years, 35 million next summer
I wouldn't want him at that price.
I’m not sure he can get that from anyone in the Summer of 2010. Though more teams will have cap space than the 2011, so it’s still smart for him to opt out. I see John more as a midlevel exception type of salary, which means he could go to a lot of teams, once he realizes that’s the best he can do.
The only way he doesn’t opt out is if he absolute sucks this year, which is also a worst case scenario for the Bulls.
5 years 35 million
is basically a MLE deal.
It's not really overpriced, probably, but it's not underpriced either
And how does he really fit in the long run? Just as a rule of thumb from some statistical analysis I’ve done, I find that players typically come into the league and follow a career arc sort of like this:
years 1-3: Improvement in their game
years 4-5: Improvement, but tails off. Player has basically reached what he’s going to be.
years 5-8: Player basically is what he is.
years 9-10: Decline. Players typically start to lose a bit off their career averages, but they’re still about what they are
years 11+: Players typically are noticeably lesser than they were in their prime.
Obviously there are exceptions to every rule, but that puts Salmons at:
9 $5.8
10 $6.4
11 $7.0
12 $7.6
13 $8.2
And we’re passing up younger guys to do that as well. No thanks
By that last point, I mean, fast forward to next year or whenever we re-sign Salmons
If we’re basically using a MLE on him, wouldn’t we be better off trying to find a younger SG-SF to use the MLE on?
Salmons doesn't seem to fit that career arch at all.
He seems to have only peaked this past year, unless you consider his 07-08 the beginning of his peak, as most of his percentages, sans 3P, remained constant. He seemed to have a different attitude, or level of confidence, last season, as he attempted more shots and more three pointers than at any point in his career. He seems to have peaked in his eighth season with the type of progress that you say should have occurred in the fifth season, and who knows if he’s done improving? Is it fair to say he is an exception to your curve?
No, but just because he got better later doesn't mean he'll get worse later, too.
His body is still built like everyone else’s. Maybe it was the mental aspect that he didn’t grasp. Or just didn’t have the perfect situation.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Kind of
The curve is just a trend. It’s a statistical combination of many players who played careers of varying lengths. Most individuals are going to show some difference from the curve, and, unfortunately, I don’t think you can tell who’s done improving and who’s not in a rigorous manner.
There’s no guarantee he’s done improving, but there’s no guarantee he isn’t a complete one-hit wonder either.
At best, you can play the odds, like you would if you’re playing Blackjack. You’re happy if the dealer gets 16, because you know more likely than not he’s going to bust, but occasionally he pulls a 5 out of his ass and you’re screwed.
Specifically with respect to Salmons, he’s followed an unusually sharp improvement, and unusually late, but it still follows the basic pattern. He’ll come back down too.
If we get near last year's performance
Or the 2nd half of the year before for 3 of those years he’s a complete bargain at that price. He’ll be 34-35 when it’s up, I think that’s a fair and good deal….even if we “give up money” for younger players who won’t pan out….Salmons when healthy proved he can be very good last year….
Thurston Moore is a rock god
I'm more concerned with the number of years
than the price per year.
Sports2 does a good job of illustrating what i’m worried about. I don’t want to regret his contract after 2 years, and spend the next 3 either complaining that he hamstrings us, or swapping his bad contract for other team’s bad contracts.
Can Salmons opt out in 2010?
From what I’m looking at, he’s locked in through ‘10-’11, with that year’s salary being 5.8 million.
But lets say he can opt out and he does so after a monster 09-10 season, that makes two real good ones in a row, and at that point, would it be such a horrible idea to sign him to a 4-5 year deal? If the Bulls can unload Kirk’s deal and get an expiring in return, would they be able to retain Salmons, and still bring in Bosh or Amare, assuming that Tyrus is gone? I think so, although I’m not positively sure, so bear with me.
Lets say he demands a 5 year 40 million dollar deal(35 seems two slight); assuming in that scenario that Salmons is actually a pretty good two guard, and not just a one year fluke, and that the Bulls cash in on a FA big man, the Bulls go into ‘10-’11 with a lineup of:
Rose
Salmons
Deng
Amare/ Bosh
Noah
Bench: Johnson, Gibson, etc.
That’s a two-superstar lineup with the other three all being above average at their positions. Salmons slides in as a very good third or fourth scoring option, which is pretty crazy considering he might be the first or second option this upcoming season.
Yes, it would be horrible.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I dunno, he's 30
but he sort of does have an old man game already. The key to your point is that they’d have to unload Hinrich, which I get more convinced by the day will never ever ever ever happen.
And yes, he can opt-out at the end of this season. Who knows what the climate will be for FAs then, however.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, as I was typing, I was thinking a pick w/ the player would be more possible than a better player.
Make sense? No? Take a bad player on an expiring contract back. The better Thomas plays, the better the pick the Bulls could get for him.
Plus, I’m irrational because the Bulls are. I would really, really, REALLY hate to see Thomas improve significantly past the trade deadline, do something great in the playoffs (other than knocking down 3 shots in OT, that is) and then get renounced just to see give Carlos Boozer 6yrs/$84-90 million. I actually think that’s the most probable outcome of all.
I’d rather see them trade him to the Magic for Tony Battie and their 1st rounder (to get Taj Gibson 2.0). Or the Rockets and Cook, whatever.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Battie's a Net now
wouldn’t the better Thomas played on his new team, the worse the pick would get?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
One player doesn't make that much of a difference.
especially over 7-8 weeks
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
ah, I read that like you were using some kind of causation between Tyrus and the pick.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
poor writing on my part
The better he plays, the more teams will want him. The Bulls could trade for the best package, which might include trading him to a team in the late teens instead of the late-20’s.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Good piece worth a rec in my opinion.
I agree with much of the post. Look I am one that is all for getting rid of the cap hold and trading for Boozer. Then we have Boozer’s bird rights if we want to sign him to a deal and no hold so we can go after a FA right off the bat. I am as confused as you are to where the Bulls are going. Gar states he wants to go after a FA next season. If that is the case then we have to move Hinrich and deal with the Thomas hold before the trade deadline. However, it does not appear that the organization is trying very hard to move either player. So I am very confused and can only hope that they have a plan unlike the last 5 years.
The Dude Abides
Doug sez:
Just bench the guy, it’s over:
This is a half and half throw away season. The Bulls aren’t expected to really compete, but they need to compete enough to remain an attractive destination for 2010 free agents. What the situation begs for is James Johnson to play as much as possible without hurting the end results. I’m not sure that Johnson in over Tyrus hurts the results at all yet either, but he likely will for at least a season until he figures out the league. The other solution is lots of Deng at PF, but with his injury history, do you really want him banging around with even bigger players? That seems less than ideal as well. The team can’t trade Tyrus, they’ve been trying to trade him for the past two seasons and haven’t found any takers.
Love it Live!
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 11:41 AM CDT reply actions
How does this happen?
This is what Pax has to show for his 2nd overall pick in 2006? A bunch of useless Victor Khryapa minutes plus a suggested season-long benching of Tyrus?
Well it PaxIdiot would have taken B.Roy or LMA
we would be faced with other problems.. signing after rookie contract expires. another Gordon situation.
So maybe Paxson took the right player at 2 (or 4..i.e. overrated Tyrus) who really was typically a true 26th 1st round player pick similiar to Taj in ranking.
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
I'd say it's enough to get Paxson fired
but he already got promoted.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let me just say this
I don’t give a shit about anything that happened before last year. If we had had Roy instead of Tyrus two years ago, we wouldn’t have sucked enough to get Rose. The only stuff that matters is how good the players that we draft and sign now are. That being said, I’m not very optimistic that our future will be any better than our past, it’ll just have greater consequences.
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
by stupidgenius on Jul 30, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I was going to post that you should know Thomas is gone
The Bulls have already made that decision (the end of the Boston series made that clear along with drafting 2 power forwards although we know they only draft the best talent available).
The only question is how Tyrus leaves. Will the Bulls manage to get anything of value for him or at least not hose their quest for cap space by holding him too long?
by hitlesswonder on Jul 30, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
who says James Johnson is any good?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Good point
we’re all hoping he can be at least an effective backup at the 3/4, but we have much too much hope riding on a rookie #16 pick.
who is just 6 months younger
than Tyrus and a similarly terrible shooter (albeit with similarly good arc!)
wow. basically what you said is true. TT leaves and james johnson is gonna be presented as the next thing to hope for. ive been hoping since elton brand!
maybe they just KNOW that tyrus is not a confident player and wont pan out. thats giving bulls lots of credit though.
Not me
I’m not endorsing the Bulls plan. I’m just saying that it was pretty evident by the conclusion of the draft that Ty was not long for the Bulls. I’m a little baffled by their hanging on to him into season. They surely could move him for something.
by hitlesswonder on Jul 30, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I still don't buy the Bulls have to be good to attract free agents argument.
That seems kinda silly when ever I hear it now. I would lump it into the momentum argument. That a win or something good gives you momentum.
Money will attract free agents. Maybe if the players were older and at the end of the their careers but yeah… I just hate reading the Bulls have to be good to get a Max player.
So, then why did no FA sign with New York this summer?
You rarely see top-tier players taking the money to play for worse teams than they were originally on.
The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 30, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
i think everyone knows ny has one future plan and thats round up superstars
where as chicago has a future plan named derrick rose. any star that considers chicago will know they are going to be playing with derrick rose. they will know that the crap season means little if derrick rose plays well himself
They have to insist on bringing in a new coach too.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Because New York didn't have cap space this summer.
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
Had the space (and willingness to pay the tax) to sign 2-3 veteran players to shore up the roster
And make it look attractive for LeBron next summer. Kidd, Hill, and Nash all spurned them because they are a crappy team.
The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 30, 2009 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions
They did not have cap space...
Kidd, Hill and Nash all spurned them because they got more money from their own teams to stay put…well, maybe not Hill, but he is a role player at this point in his career.
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
The Knicks
were used as leverage in each situation with Kidd, Hill, and Nash. The Knicks had room to sign any of them, but were used as pawns.
left shark - "Kirk needs to go and join Ben Gordon and L Deng somewhere else trade Deng and Hinrich they no good"
by NormVanBeer on Jul 30, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions
The players "we" want the Bulls to get will be getting MAXIMUM money wherever they go.
Besides, the Bulls screwed the pooch by letting another sign-and-trade chip walk.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I don't believe they couldn't find anyone to trade for Thomas for the past two years.
Especially since “past two seasons” would include right after his rookie season, and the thought that nobody wanted him after that is so absurd.
That’s stupid, and Doug should slap himself across the face for it. We know for a fact he was included in trade discussions and his inclusion was NOT the reason the trades failed. Crap, that’s horrible, shitty company-line talk.
Bulls dislike Thomas. Bulls tell themselves “he’s a No. 4 pick w/ great athleticism and potential.” Bulls still hate Thomas. Bulls want a lot for Thomas in a trade. Other teams say, “But you hate him.” Bulls say, “Yeah, but he’s young and has great potential!!!” Other teams hang up on the idiot they’re talking with you.
Doug really wants us to believe they couldn’t trade Thomas to a team under the cap for a 2nd round pick? Seriously?
Bad reporting. Bad writing, Doug. Blech.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
"The team can’t trade Tyrus, they’ve been trying to trade him for the past two seasons and haven’t found any takers."
I’m sure the team could trade Tyrus at the right price.
The reality of the situation is the Bulls would be embarrassed by taking a low price for him, and thus would rather get nothing than get a pick in the mid 20s. Especially if Tyrus then goes on to become a productive player somewhere else.
On the other hand, if the Bulls simply wait him out, let him leave for nothing, then even if he does well, it can be said that just the fact of the Bulls letting him go was something that “set him straight” or somesuch.
Come on, this is straight out of CYA Management 101.
Put it another way
1. Bulls trade Tyrus, they get and unknown pick, likely to be about 20 and an relatively useless expiring. Pick 20 in most drafts could yield a good player if you’re a really good drafter. It could yield Taj Gibson if you don’t know what you’re doing and want to flex your new job muscles by letting your old mentor call in a favor and draft one of his kids. The Bulls get generally (and rightfully) ridiculed for trading away the #2 pick in the draft for what amounts to the #20 pick.
2. The Bulls don’t trade Tyrus, he walks at the end of an unproductive year, and everyone forgets about it in the midst of using our cap space to acquire Elton Brand from the Sixers and creating an exciting and up and coming contender.
cold...blooded
It could yield Taj Gibson if you don’t know what you’re doing and want to flex your new job muscles by letting your old mentor call in a favor and draft one of his kids.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
"letting him go was something that "set him straight" or somesuch."
true, they’re most concerned with him being a better person, or so I’ve heard.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
this is so stupid and pointless to me
Only the Bulls have young players on their team that they hope fail. If you have a young player on your team, and you aren’t trying to develop him, than it is time to move him – for anything.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
What evidence do you have of this?
How have the Bulls publicly or privately said or even implied they hope Tyrus, Noah or others fail…?
I would think the preference would be for the young guys to come in, understand the game quickly, and be deserving of praise and contracts from the organization…and in this case, as much as I like Tyrus, he has not done that…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
do you just go around parrotting whatever the front office says?
The Bulls had Gordon. The better Gordon played the less likely it was they would be able to resign him. The same now goes for Tyrus. If Tyrus plays well, they won’t be able to resign him. The Bulls have manuevered themselves into a position in 2 consecutive years where the strong play of a starter may lead to the Bulls not being able to resign him. There is your evidence.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
How is that a symptom of the Bulls
and not the league in general? In the other thread we were talking about how Portland will face this eventually. The Suns had to go through it. If you have a bunch of good young players, they’ll all want to be signed to big contracts around the same time, and eventually you run out of money or playing time.
This doesn’t mean you hope your players fail, it means you hope they give you a hometown discount, or you make plans to replace them with someone cheaper.
Because the Bulls had the chance to lock up Gordon
and they now have the chance to lock up Tyrus. I don’t think Portland is a good example of this. Neither are the Suns. (How did the Suns go through this? Joe Johnson left because he wanted to be the man. They signed Q, Nash, Amare, Boris Diaw, Shawn Marion and Barbosa to long term contracts.) There is a difference between not being able to afford to keep guys and choosing to let them go because you aren’t even offering them contracts. Portland is already negotiating with Aldridge and Roy. The Bulls haven’t made one peep in regards to Tyrus.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
How does that translate into hoping young players fail?
I think the Bulls have shown in the past they are willing to keep young players whose contributions they value, as evidenced by the long term signings of Hinrich, Deng and even Noc…they tried to sign Gordon, but they were pretty far apart on money…
I see it like this, if Tyrus has that breakout season that we are all looking for, say 18 and 9 next season on a 47 win team, I would expect the Bulls to match any offer he receives next offseason short of a max deal…because he would be their starting PF of the future…but if he continues the trend of 12 and 6, while playing outside the scope of what the coaching staff is asking him to do, then he failed on his own accord, without prodding from management what so ever…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
If Tyrus averages 18 and 9
than he will be one of the best power forwards in the NBA and than there would be no need for Chris Bosh, Amare, Boozer – whoever, he would be your future.
But what if he averages 14 and 8, 2.5 blks and 1 steal. He still has value. But he isn’t quite good enough to get your team over the hump. He is better than anyone the Bulls have at power foward, but not as good as Bosh/Amare.
if the Bulls are matching any deal short of a max for Tyrus than they won’t be in the market to get a max free agent of their own. I don’t foresee scenario where the Bulls are willing to forego the 2010 plan to keep Tyrus Thomas
to quote yfbb -
There’s dreams of a 2010 free agent, and Tyrus Thomas sits on that 2010 cap with a massive cap hold of his own as a potential restricted free agent. So if the Bulls do have the chance to sign a max FA (and they still have to move someone else first, if the cap is going down significantly. This is such a risky plan, argh.), they’d have to renounce the rights to Thomas and let him walk for nothing.
I think that sums it up nicely. I guess the Bulls could just forego the 2010 plan. But that would seemingly go against the company line they have been pushing all summer.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Why does it have to be one or the other with Tyrus and the supposed 2010 plan?
While I understand that in order to have max cap space, his rights may have to be renounced…but, how often do max free agents sign deals with other teams outright? If the Bulls are a threat to sign a max free agent, that will be sufficient to start negotiations for a sign and trade…which in turn, would open the possibility that Tyrus does not need to be renounced next Summer…
And if he has that moderate breakout year to which you refer, then he will likely sign an offer sheet with another team, and depending on the deal (I would speculate $8M or less), the Bulls would likely match…especially if their 2010 target is a SG, which it should be with near certain departure of Salmons next Summer…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
PF this season will be Deng
At least my money is on that.
VDN is going to want Kirk on the floor — I think he’ll start. I think both Tyrus and Johnson sit and Deng gets a lot of minutes at the 4 giving VDN that smallish lineup he likes.
It's going to be a
loooong season.
That also means plenty of Pargo time on the floor.
2 questions
1. If Tyrus was in the draft this year – a near 23 year old senior with Final Four experience, who’s a shotblocking machine, but who doesn’t have a polished offensive game – how would we view him, and where would he have gone in the draft?
First, wouldn’t the consensus be that he won’t develop an offensive game? How many seniors who aren’t scorers do we expect will become efficient 15+ppg scorers in the NBA? My guess is we’d think of him as an Earl Clark type, great defender at multiple positions, could become somewhat effective offensively, and he’d probably go 10th-15th (behind Jordan Hill, maybe ahead of Hansbrough, and probably no later than just behind Clark’s #14). He’s no longer the high-ceiling guy we thought he was two years ago, but he’s still a lottery talent.
2. Is there a precedent for a 23+ year old with 3+ years NBA experience who suddenly figures out how to score? Or becomes a star or even a semi-star?
Marcus Camby’s numbers were really close to Tyrus’ over their first three years. By year 5 (age 26), Camby finally figured it out by focusing more on rebounding and shotblocking, averaging 12ppg and 11.5rpg with a .559 TS%.
Donyell Marshall, also picked 4th in his draft, had just a .473 TS% through three seasons, and didn’t figure out how to score efficiently until age 27. After that he had a few capable years.
Kevin Garnett could always pass and defend better than Tyrus, but scoring wise, their numbers through age 22 are scary-similar (look at those per 36 numbers!). It’s easy to forget that Garnett wasn’t much of a rebounder early in his career, and it took awhile for him to figure out his jumpshot. Garnett figured it out at age 23 (his 5th year) in a big way.
Of course, Stromile Swift and Eddie Griffin were Tyrus-esque and never improved. And there’s really only one precedent (Garnett) for a Tyrus-type player who developed into a gamechanger offensively. But Tyrus can still become an impact player (as easily as just by improving his rebounding like Camby, Marshall, and Garnett did), and it’s not too late to keep hoping that something will click.
That first part is horrible analysis.
THe NBA = college now? Earl Clark scored and shot the same in college as Tyrus Thomas did in the NBA.
And Marcus Camby was two years older, and that matters at that age. And It’s a good thing Thomas had a 4% higher TS% than Marshall. I mean, if he had a 4% higher TS% than what he does now, one might think he’s a basketball god.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Please tell me you've translated Thomas's NBA stats to college to say he would still be "raw".
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Are you arguing that Tyrus has a polished game?
I didn’t say Clark was as good a scorer as Tyrus…
we’d think of him as an Earl Clark type, great defender at multiple positions, could become somewhat effective offensively
Offense = more than just scoring…
No. I'm arguing that since he's putting up similar stats in the NBA as Clark in the NCAA...
…he’d be putting up vastly superior stats in the NCAA.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
i don't understand your point
No one is arguing that Tyrus can’t develop. The question seems to be does Tyrus developing help the Bulls? If he isn’t in the long term plans of the Bulls, what is the point of putting him out there?
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
i think someone mentioned this elsewhere
but if we’re just going to renounce him at the end of the year, moving him for expirings doesn’t really make any sense. at least put him out there a lot at the start of the season, maybe he plays well, and then we can move him for expirings + an asset or two (i.e., young players, 1st round picks), or as part of a bigger package if say someone like amare or bosh goes on the trade block (remember, with our expirings we can still use those as trade assets this year instead of just letting them expire and crossing our fingers that we can convince a FA to come here in the offseason)
Have we already given up on him?
Here’s a guy who, at age 22, played 28mpg for us in the playoffs. And since then, with zero games gone by, our only options are 1) deal him now or 2) let him walk? Huh?
The title of this post is “can one break own in a water treading season”, and my answer was “yes, here’s why…”. If we can trade him for Boozer or Bosh, then fine. But if nobody’s arguing that Tyrus can’t develop, why is nobody arguing why he’s our PF of the future?
Yes, we've already given up on him!
I could just refer you to my earlier posts but…
If Tyrus plays well, the Bulls will not be able to resign him and get a top free agent. The Bulls have to release him to get maximum cap space. I don’t understand why you are ignoring that point. People have been making it all across this post. I guess Tyrus could play so well that the Bulls may prefer keeping him as opposed to getting Chris bosh or Wade or whoever, but that seems kind of unlikely. 2010 seems like the plan.
Tyrus has an enormous cap hold – his qualifying offer is over 6 million. Assuming that the Bulls pick up the team options on Noah and Rose (going out on a limb there) they will have 38 million in committed salaries before they even think about resigning Thomas. If the cap is somewhere between $53-57 million (a generous estimate) than the Bulls will not be able to sign a max free agent and retain Thomas, who most likely will not accept anything less than the QO.
If you are advocating foregoing the 2010 plan, than you should do so explicitly. Otherwise, please explain to me how the Bulls can retain Thomas and still get a max 2010 free agent. I’m sure there are scenarios, but ask yourself, do the Bulls prefer player A (Deng,Hinrich,Noah) or Thomas?
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
YaoPau can't deny the 2010 plan
he’s recently endorsed it as Reinsdorfian find-3-stars genius :-D
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm assuming Salmons will opt out
How much would a max player make in his first season?
that's a risky assumption
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
You don't think a 30 year old
coming off a ~20ppg season would want to land a longterm contract asap?
I used to think so
but maybe it really is financial hell for the NBA next year.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Does Salmons really stand to make much more money by opting out?
I mean, teams aren’t going to be fooled into giving Salmons some 5 year 40 million dollar contract. He doesn’t have that much cache around the league and everyone is well aware of his age, the fact that he was pretty bad up until this season and the fact that even at his best he doesn’t have that great of a skill set.
Even if he does opt out, I’d be surprised if he got anything more than 3 years 21 million. Who is going to pay Salmons more than that?
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Corey Maggette got 5 years/ 50 mil at age 28
Hedo just got 5 years/ 53 mil at age 30
James Posey got 4 years / 25 mil at age 31, after scoring 7.4ppg!!
Maybe Salmons is in a slightly lower bracket than Maggette/Turkoglu, but if those contracts are any indication, then Salmons can get 5 years / 40 mil no problem. Who’s the last 18-20ppg scorer to sign for under 8 mil per year?
that was under a different economic reality than the NBA is currently under
and all those guys have much, much better reps than Salmons does. Salmons has 1 year of scoring 18.3 points per game for a team that finished 7th in the east.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
See I disagree with that
Corey Maggette had a rep for bad defense – he started only 60% of his team’s games the previous three years before the contract. He made the playoffs once in 9 seasons, and had a foot injury two seasons earlier. Hedo sucked this year: 16.8ppg on .541 TS% … 15.8ppg on .547 TS% in the playoffs.
Salmons, meanwhile, dropped 35 on the Celtics in the best game of this season’s best series. I’m not saying Salmons is in Maggettes/Hedos class, but he’ll make waaay above 3 years/ 21 mil if he repeats his numbers next season.
As for the bad economy, here’s how the bad economy has affected players this year:
Gordon (26): 5 years/ 55 mil
Turkoglu (30) : 5 years/ 53 mil
Varejao (27 in September): 6 years/ 50 mil
Corey Maggette is universally decreed as having a bad contract
Gordon is 4 years younger than Salmons and has been better than him every season of his career. Just because you think he sucks doesn’t mean everyone else does. Turk was the leader of a team that went to the finals.
Varejao is making 8 million a year. I said Salmons would make 7 million a year. Big drop off. Salmons will be 4 years older than Varejao when he signs his next contract, which explains the discrepancy in years…
You listed one game by Salmons. Throughout their careers, each player that you have named has been better than John Salmons. In fact, up until this season, John Salmons has been pretty bad.
Regarding the economy -
look at David Lee, Odom, Sessions. Look at teams cutting salary and giving away contracts. Right now 18 teams are over the luxury tax, the owners are talking lockout and people are projecting the salary cap to fall even further. If you think Salmons is going to make way above $7 million a year than you simply haven’t been paying attention. Only a few teams will have cap space and they aren’t going to overpay Salmons given what else would be on the market.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
well, i just don't think he will get the contract at all
nobody is using 1/5th of their cap space on John Salmons in 2010.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Only a handful of teams had cap space this season
Whereas half the league could be in a position to give Salmons a big contract next offseason. You think he’d pass up that opportunity in exchange for a one year, 5.8 mil contract?
Varejao is making 8 million a year. I said Salmons would make 7 million a year. Big drop off.
In what world does 8ppg Varejao command more or even the same money as 18ppg Salmons? I like Varejao too, but as I said, efficient 18ppg scorers don’t make 7 (or for that matter 8) million a year. Can’t even think of one that’s close.
25% of the cap i believe
I wouldn’t assume Salmons is going to opt out. Utah had 3 players opt in this season. The NBA economy could get worse before it gets better. Maybe Salmons prefers being a free agent in 2011 rather than 2010.
If Salmons opts out the Bulls are in a much better position to keep Tyrus. But I’d rather the Bulls be in control of the situation than it be at the mercy of Salmons and his agent.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
If we don't have enough money
then that’s fine, let Tyrus go. I always assumed we’d be fine with Tyrus aboard as long as Salmons is gone, but maybe that’s not the case.
According to the Larry Coon page, about max salaries…
A player with 7+ years in the NBA (Bosh, Wade) can make up to 30% of the cap. But…
Players’ maximum salaries are never less than 105% of their previous salary. For example, a ten-year veteran who earned $20 million in 2006-07 has a maximum salary of $22.1 million in 2007-08, even though that is above the league-wide maximum. A free agent does not need to remain with the same team in order to receive 105% of his previous salary, although the team that signs him is subject to the same salary cap restrictions as with any other free agent.
I don’t really know how to interpret that, but I’m guessing Bosh/Wade can start at 105% of their 2009/2010 salary of 15.7 mil? So 16.5 mil for their first year? I’d be awfully close with just Tyrus or Salmons aboard…
it's my understanding
that the max is 105% of the previous salary or 30% of the cap, whichever is greater. i haven’t really read up on this stuff all that much , but that’s the sense i get from a cursory glance at Larry Coon’s page.
and I would add that Salmons opting out doesn't change the equation that much
in regards to Tyrus. If Salmons opted out and the Bulls released Tyrus than they would have that much more money to spend on free agents.
Also, keep in mind that If Salmons opts out, the Bulls will than have to find a guy to replace Salmons. A 20 pt a game scorer that they had on a discount of 5.8 million a year. I’m not sure the Bulls even want Salmons to opt out when you think about the discount they are getting for his services. At 5.8 million a year he has to be the lowest paid 18-20 pt a game scorer not on a rookie contract.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions
this is all assuming that he remains
an 18-20 point a game scorer next season.
if he doesn't the Bulls are kind of screwed
He looks like the second option on offense right now.
i really see no reason why he wouldn’t maintain those averages though. He is going to get guaranteed minutes at the 2 and the 3. He is going to be playing in the same system. And he is going to get even more touches.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
and if he plays worse
than he definitely isn’t opting out.
by Basketball Smurf on Jul 30, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
why is no one mentioning Joe Johnson??
how about TT has a good year, Salmons opts out, they sign Johnson, who might not command max, but is definitely a tier 2 type guy. resign Thomas.
Noah
Tyrus
Deng
Johnson
Rose
we went out for pizza after the game. -dave wannstedt
by BULLieving in Miami on Jul 30, 2009 8:55 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
would anyone argue that Joe Johnson is gettable?
a big guard who can score like BG. it’ll be what they always wanted… BG wih another 3-4".
we went out for pizza after the game. -dave wannstedt
by BULLieving in Miami on Jul 30, 2009 9:00 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it would take the max to get Joe Johnson
it’s hard to get talent from other teams. You have to overpay and have people laugh at you like Detroit.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Joe Johnson's
Not worth the max….that’s why.
He’s nice, but I’d much rather have a younger D. Wade, a guy well worth the max money.
Johnson’s at best a consolation prize if Wade falls and our attempts at a PF don’t work….or if Tyrus blows up, we can go after Johnson after we secure Tyrus…
Thurston Moore is a rock god
im no fan of joe johnson
he’s not particularly efficient, and i think he’ll be 29 or 30 at the start of the 2010-11 season.
id much rather see them
try to use their cap space on a bosh/amare big and then fill the 2 guard hole through the MLE with someone like kelenna azubuike
And you are assuming that a Max Worthy Player...
Would forgo the extra year of guaranteed money to sign with the Bulls instead of their team…
The Bulls could easily land a max worthy free agent, by leveraging the threat of signing him to a max deal, which could be achieved by offering said max deal on 7-1-10, predicated on the idea of renouncing whomever necessary to get to the max threshhold…then spend the next seven days working on the necessary sign and trade to bring said max worthy player to Chicago for 6 years instead of 5…in the process, the Bulls do not have to renounce Tyrus, because they no longer need Max cap space, since it is a sign and trade, they can absorb more salary than they send out…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
But then they have to get rid of other players
that they likely want to keep. And they still have to clear most of that money, even if it isn’t all of it.
You do a sign and trade if that’s the only way that the player will come, but it shouldn’t be the first choice.
When the team doesn't offer an extension for the entire first month that they can...
…some people are able to draw inferences. Others aren’t, it appears.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jul 30, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The problem with Tyrus is his BRAIN!!!!!
Why don’t people understand this? He can have all the good summers he wants. Until he understands and develops a BB IQ it’s a wasted argument.
He’s really a SF anyways..
Tyrus needs to see the Wizard to get a brain to maximize his physical assets.
Unfortunately if we look behind the curtain here in Oz town (Chicago) we discover the Wizard is a con man whose basketball IQ (Vinnie) is also severly deficient. Both have similar excuses. Vinny DelNovice is even more of a rookie than TT with a knowledge base in the Junior High level while trying to teach at Harvard. Tyrus has been stuck in a situation that could turn Einstien into a babbling idiot if the mediocraties posing as coaches were in academia.
Both Vinny and Tyrus have a lot in common. Both have inflated egos, both are stubborn which makes them go into a state of denial when confronted with their deficiencies and need to improve their knowledge base. Both are in need of experienced mentors and in time, I believe both could be relatively successful. Both need to get a new brain from the Wizard since both have a burning desire to succeed but cannot do it unless a skilled professor with a Doctorate in basketball x’s and o’s and a minor in Psycology is brought in quickly and I don’t mean a Randy Brown former C- student.
I still believe Tyrus will reach his potential somewhere but not here. While everyone rips him (granted he has earned the wrath of some of his critics) keep in mind the only players on the roster younger than him are Derrick Rose and his budding superstar replacement, James Johnson (by only 6 months). I don’t need to make a trip to Oz to feel confident in predicting that the Bulls will rue the day they let him walk but then I have to keep reminding myself this can be easily predicted as well since Reinsdork and company are infamous for making boneheaded decisions because their overinflated egos make Vinny and Tyrus look like the essence of humility.
If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard
by Tyrusmancrush on Jul 30, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
i really wish we could get rid of deng and play tyrus as a 3
wasnt he scouted as a 3 coming out of college?
and i was watching that cavs bulls ot game earlier in the season and watching how tyrus guarded lebron that night man to man was pretty nice. his length and athleticism really showed and itd be just great if we could turn him into a defensive one on one player as opposed to just a weak side defender
damn
this article makes me love tyrus..then pity him…add to the fact that my dog died …now my emotions are worse than Popeye Jones looking in a mirror
The only way you can avoid making a mistake is not to make a decision . Our Owner´s philosophy-
puke, puke, and more puke
i agree, with as fun as Tyrus is to watch sometimes, that he is not in the long-term plans of this team. the rumored targets have always been Bosh, STAT, and Boozer, who all play his position and are all better. def gotta trade, because if he walks for nothing… that is a #2 and #3 overall walking. i will lose all hope in this org. i’ll never stop being a fan because love is blind, but i will have no faith in this org., until it actually happens that they win something.
…or trade Deng and move TT to the 3…
(thank the heavens that i have the Marlins and Dolphins right now. two organizations that know what the hell they’re doing)
we went out for pizza after the game. -dave wannstedt
by BULLieving in Miami on Jul 30, 2009 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
On the other hand, I'm a Cubs fan
Thank god for the Steelers.
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
by stupidgenius on Jul 30, 2009 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
i will continue to believe in tyrus thomas ...
unless he is found to be on the ped list.
seriously, i just want him to get consistent pt for one whole season. is that too much to ask? it’s all mental with tyrus. hopefully he can start the entire year at pf and rose can help him gain confidence and retain that confidence.
WADE 2010
I thought you was Lt. Dan?
Things could be worse. We could have kept Boylan.
by stupidgenius on Jul 30, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
cant stop believing in tyrus
Deng and hinrich are the real problem (besides the coaching and management). Neither one can break down the defense off the dribble and finish strong/pass very well. Deng just wants to shoot that midrange j and kirk doesn’t really have a choice cuz he lacks speed and confidence. If we’re buiding the team around Rose (who I expect to break down defenses easily all year), then we need to shed those contracts. Tyrus is younger, he can run the floor with rose, finish at the rim, block shots…why wouldn’t you want him to be a part of your young nucleus. Our best player is 20 yrs old. I don’t even care if tyrus comes off the bench. Get better starters and a more experienced coach. Don’t get mad at your young developing talent.
Tyrus isn’t that great at finishing yet, it’s one thing to dunk all alone but he can’t take a hit and then finish. Also he can run the floor but he usually just wants to jog. I like Tyrus too but he can’t blame the org for lack of development forever….it’s his career and he’s gotta go all out to be the best he can be to get his $$$. Gotta look at the man in the mirror sooner or later and wise up. I honestly think he needs to sports psychologist. Seems like he has some kind of mental thing going on, either ADHD or some equivalent.
Have we seen enough of TT?
I’ve probably seen 99% of TT’s games as a Bull and I am still hemming and hawing . One minute I think he’s a bust. The next I see an extremely valuable piece to the Bulls contending. And the Bulls find themselves in the same position. I have no doubts he has practice sessions where he is unbullievable (hehe) and other practices where he stinks. That’s why they can’t pull the trigger on his future.
So everyone reply right now: Bust or Contributor. I’m saying Bust, mostly due to lack of court awareness and anticipation. A coach CANNOT play a player like TT at crunch time. It kills you. You guys keep ripping Vinny for benching TT in the fourth, but he had better options. Coaches don’t develop players, players develop players.
well he won game 1 of the Celtics series.
Bulls Coaches don’t develop players, players develop players.
Fixed it :-p
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions
bustributor: bust-tri-butor
(noun)
A confused and perflexed person who gives to a charity or cause:
A person who sometimes supports or champions an activity, cause, or institution, usually in the 1st 3 minutes od every quarter or for during wasted minutes in a game
A person that shows flashes of growth or something of that nature, especially in its early stages and sometimes in the late stages, this usually occurs when everyone is bored watching the other star players struggle and hoping that said player turns out to be the next big thing – but probably won´t unless traded to a team that uses him/her effectively
The only way you can avoid making a mistake is not to make a decision . Our Owner´s philosophy-
I think TT will develop to be a good, 16-10 PF.
He won’t be a breakout star, but his offensive J will become a weapon of sorts and his awareness will improve.
[That’s just IMHO, though.]
Vinny Del Negro: Possibly the most unintentionally irritating last name in the history of last names [Hint: I can't for the life of me pronounce it correctly].
-Brandon Jennings: PG of the future!
Yeah, but he'll be exciting, durable Deng!
Not boring, injury-prone Deng.
Vinny Del Negro: Possibly the most unintentionally irritating last name in the history of last names [Hint: I can't for the life of me pronounce it correctly].
-Brandon Jennings: PG of the future!
Reading these posts is like listening to a divorce bitch about her ex-husband
Back off man, I'm a scientist
I'm sure your ex though it was a good move overall.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 31, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
lebron
tyrus can guard lebron, it is perhaps my favorite thing about him. he is one of the few players in the league that can jump with lebron, and lebron’s physical domination of the game makes tyrus an attractive player to teams. In the east you have to be able to guard Lebron, same goes for Dwight Howard. I remember reading something somewhere that said “add tyrus thomas to the short list of people that can guard lebron” (maybe on truehoop?) and i couldn’t have agreed more.
"Hes very cerebral when he plays out there"--Hubie

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