Please pass the pimple medicine

by Stacey "Burger" King on Jul 23, 2009 3:11 PM CDT

Last year the Bulls averaged 25.4 years of age. The 2009/10 projected starters currently average 24 years of age (DR-21, JS-29, LD-24, TT-22, JN-24) and have a grand total of 18 years of combined NBA experience.

Compare last year's Bulls to all teams that won 55+ games last year.

                          2008/9Avg.    Avg.
NBA Team                   Exp.    Age
Chicago                        3.57    25.41

LA Lakers                    5.64    26.78

Orlando                        5.60   27.88

Cleveland                     5.53   27.32

Boston                          5.47   27.16

NBA Average               4.74    26.81

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=571

The excellent link above indicates the Bulls effective age (average age based on minutes played) last year (through February 26) was very young as well.

Youngest           Age     Oldest         Age

Memphis            23.9     San Antonio   31.4
Portland             24.5     Phoenix       30.0
Chicago             25.3      Dallas        29.5
Oklahoma City   25.5      Detroit       29.3
Minnesota          25.7     New Orleans   29.2

                                    Boston         28.6

                                    L.A. Lakers 27.7

                                    Cleveland      27.2

WHAT CAN WE TAKE FROM THIS?

Experience is pretty key to winning in the NBA
The Bulls are young and rebuilding - not posturing for a championship run
The Bulls most likely require a couple more years to develop and catch up to the elite teams
Portland statistically should move back towards mediocrity (think 2006/07 Bulls)
Boston, LA and Cleveland will be on the downside in two years without GM magic

POTENTIAL BULLS MANAGEMENT STRATEGY (5 year plan)

Develop the talent (goal being at least two all-star caliber players within 1-3 years)
Upgrade talent when return on investment (ROI) warrants
Resign non all-star role players as ROI warrants (i.e., Gordon)
Dump the players that don't make the grade and/or don't walk the line (i.e. Hughes, Thomas)
Ensure you have high-potential players being developed at every position
Position cap to address potential talent gaps and/or resign key players
Win a Championship in 3-5 years

SUMMARY

I don't always agree with Bulls Management decisions, but I do think they have a logic based process in play. Prior history indicates that winning requires talent, experience, desire and luck. I think the Bulls are positioned well with talent, desire and luck (Rose). All they need is experience and maybe a little more luck. I am ok with waiting for the kids to develop as instant gratification is near impossible to achieve (i.e., Boston).

I also think we get all caught up in the bs that Management verbalizes. It is in the teams best interest to never communicate "Rebuilding" to the fans while keeping the other teams guessing their intentions. The truth is the Bulls are positioning for contention two years from now. The Bulls apparently don't think any of this year's big free agents are going to be all-star material in 3-5 years nor do they need to overpay for talent that won't be needed for two more years.

Just my opinion. Go Bulls!

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Comments

I liked it

But change your title

"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT

by Jamaicanpi on Jul 23, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions

I like it

and I like the title. Good stuff man.

by Rose Colored Goggles on Jul 23, 2009 4:16 PM CDT reply actions

wow

I never put a number on just how young the bulls really are..

by jf111847 on Jul 23, 2009 6:04 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Another interesting tidbit

They were the youngest team (or one of the youngest) when they went to the playoffs in 2004-2005. This team would rather be young than good.

by NittanyCub on Jul 23, 2009 11:09 PM CDT reply actions

Great post, had the same thoughts that the bulls are planning 2 years down the road at least right now.

Boston, Orlando, LA, and Clev are all in championship mode for the next 2 years, the bulls have no business trying to even spend money to get win now players. Just stock up on some potential, hope it pans out for the best and see what we have in 3 years…

by Krandle on Jul 23, 2009 11:38 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Interesting point

and I really can’t believe I don’t see that exact opinion on this blog more often. It’s too rational for me, which I guess is the problem the rest of us have with it.

by Rose Colored Goggles on Jul 23, 2009 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions

agreed

but enough about Salmons and Hinrich already!

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 30, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Great… more stay the course, wait til next year talk…..awesome. Did JR write this?

by C Smoove on Jul 24, 2009 9:54 AM CDT reply actions

Tyrus is now to old... time for him to go!

Remember Bulls age is measured in NBA baskeball years experience and time near contact renewal therefore Taj Gibson can stay longer until his suckiness forces him off the floor..

"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"

by exult463 on Jul 24, 2009 11:10 AM CDT reply actions

Here is the problem with the sit around and wait analysis

(although I think the age thing is enlightening…)

you eventually have to pay these guys. There contracts come up. And than you have to make hard decisions. If you never resign these players, you never get better. You just stay young. The Bulls have been perpetually young over the last 10 years. You imply that they are only letting go underperforming role players. But that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Gordon is an example of the failure of Bulls strategy, Chandler another. The Bulls fail to resign these guys when they are young and affordable, they get older/better/more expensive and the Bulls end up letting them go for less than what they are worth. Tyrus Thomas is the current example of this. What happens when Noah wants $10-12 mil a year? Is anyone confident the Bulls are going to meet Noah’s contract demands?

by Basketball Smurf on Jul 24, 2009 12:46 PM CDT reply actions

The bulls resigned Chandler

to a reasonable contract. They only traded him because they were in “win now” mode, and thought Wallace could do his job better than him.

by runningman on Jul 28, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions

As a matter of fact

everyone got resigned, except for Gordon, since Paxson came on. I don’t know why people assume that Gordon is the norm, when he’s clearly the exception. Hinrich, Luol, Nocioni, Chandler all got contracts. Eddy didn’t get one because he was a bum, who was worth much more by turning into Tyrus and Noah.

by runningman on Jul 28, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions

That worked out wonderfully.

BullsTwo

by Sports2 on Jul 28, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions

So here is a proposed trade to go with this theory.

Heat -
Boozer
Hinrich

Jazz –
Haslem
Cook
Diawara

Bulls –
Michael Beasley
4.2 mil trade exemption from M. Banks.

Instead of turning Kirk into Boozer, we turn him into a guy who is currently performing at about the same level per 40, but is only 20.

by Unrealcity on Jul 24, 2009 1:01 PM CDT reply actions

I thought this post was going to be about

D. Rose’s complexion.

The oldest laker on the current roster is Kobe(31). Then you’ve got Artest, Odom, and Gasol behind him. With the exception of Odom, arguably, those core players are skilled enough to be effective even when they lose a good portion of their athleticism. And if Bynum pans out, watch out.

So, as to your assertion that LA will be on the downside in 2 yrs, I disagree. In 2yrs, they’re going to peak.

"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."

by ignign*kt on Jul 24, 2009 1:19 PM CDT reply actions

Artest is already fading

He’s nowhere as good defensively as he used to be, and he’s an inefficient scorer.

Kobe works hard enough that he’ll still be effective, but he has a lot of years on his body and I wouldn’t be suprised if he has long term injuries in the future like a Knee or something. He’ll refine his game to be more jumpshooting and less explosiveness, however. He’s already been transitioning.

Gasol will be good in a Vlade Divac kind of way as he ages. Kobe and Gasol alone will keep the Lakers relevant for years to come.

by runningman on Jul 28, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Artest is not as quick as he used to be, that's for sure.

But that’s mitigated somewhat by the Lakers’ defensive scheme. He doesn’t have to really get up in someone’s face, just funnel them toward the baseline or into the path of a trapping big man.

One thing that Artest hasn’t lost is strength. He’ll be able to switch on pick and rolls, keep bigs from getting deep into the paint, and use his hands to strip the ball like he always has. On the flipside, he’s going to be able to post-up weaker opponents w/ impunity. If he plays within the system, he’ll be more efficient. That’s not a given, though, since he has a penchant for chucking up shots.

I am a bit worried about all the miles Kobe has accumulated over the years. One of his strengths is being in tune with his body, so he knows when to exert himself and when to coast. That being said, the Lakers are going to be in trouble if he goes through what Garnett did last year.

"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."

by ignign*kt on Jul 28, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Artest shot under 40% from inside last year.

That’s nearly unheard of.
I don’t know about him being able to post up and score inside anymore. Would have to watch him, I guess.

Vinny Del Negro: Possibly the most unintentionally irritating last name in the history of last names [Hint: I can't for the life of me pronounce it correctly].
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by Prevenge on Jul 31, 2009 2:19 AM CDT up reply actions