Building a Team that J.R. Should be happy to pay the Luxury Tax for
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 1:57 PM CDT
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PrintA couple of trade ideas:
Sign and trade BG (deal starting at ~ 9 million) + Tim Thomas to the Nets for Vince Carter. This deal saves the Nets 2010 money (in Tim Thomas departing from the books) and replaces Vinsanity for the future with Gordon. A Devin Harris - Ben Gordon backcourt would be scary and Harris is the rare PG who, like Hinrich, can help masks BG's defensive deficiencies and that offense would be absolutely horrifying to play against. BG would have a field day hitting treys off of Harris's penetration. This is the type of backcourt that the Nets might use to entice a 2010 free agent (maybe LeBron if they still think they have a chance).
The first deal would put the Bulls into the luxury tax, but it would also make them immediately better next year. Vince Carter is a huge 2 guard, and is one of the best defensive 2 guards in the league - despite his reputation for not giving 100% all the time. His 5 year APM had him second amongst all 2's in the league in defensive APM behind only Manu Ginobili. Vince is old, but he's still productive and he's only got next year and the year after on his deal, with an additional year in 2011-12 that is unguaranteed (only 4 million of the 18+ million is guaranteed), so if Vince stinks in 2 years, you cut him and only have to pay him 4 million or you can package him to a team looking to cut a ton of salary and get useful parts back. There are far worse contracts in the league than Vince's and he's still one of the league's best and would be a huge upgrade over Gordon.
Okay, so now that the Bulls are in the luxury tax and have made a big splash, the next piece needs to be added to make the Bulls a legitimate title contender. The Bulls could then offer the Suns: Salmons (probably expiring + useful player), Jerome James (insurance-covered super expiring), Tyrus Thomas, plus our two first round picks for Amare Stoudemire and Jared Dudley. The Suns would probably prefer to have Deng, but Amare seemingly has no interest in re-signing with the Suns, the Suns don't seem to want him back, and he has the eye concerns that I would use to try and strong-arm the Suns. Getting expirings, Tyrus, and picks should be pretty appealing to the Suns.
These deals would give the Bulls a roster of:
PG: Derrick Rose (.58), Kirk Hinrich (1.10)
SG: Vince Carter (4.10), Kirk Hinrich (1.10)
SF: Luol Deng (1.73), Jared Dudley (2.44)
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire (.43), Joakim Noah (6.38)
C: Joakim Noah (6.38), Brad Miller (5.79)
That's a pretty stacked 8 man rotation for next year. I dare say that I'd expect that roster to win the ECF rather easily. There's not a single negative APM contributor in the bunch - the numbers for each are in the parantheses next to them.
Making the logical assumption that the Bulls would actually have to part with Deng in a swap for Amare, I'd have the Bulls do the fabled Blake + Outlaw swap for Kirk. The Bulls would probably have to send out Deng, Tyrus, and Jerome James's deal plus picks for Amare and either Barbosa or some combination of filler players. The Bulls would then end up with this roster lineup for next year:
PG: Derrick Rose (.58), Steve Blake (1.88)
SG: Vince Carter (4.10), Barbosa (-3.04), Salmons (-7.05)
SF: Outlaw (-2.3), Salmons (-7.05)
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire (.43), Joakim Noah (6.38)
C: Joakim Noah (6.38), Brad Miller (5.79)
That team is less awesome than the first team, but I still think it's significantly better than the Bulls team as currently constructed, and would definitely compete for the ECF crown next year. It'd be a team worth paying the tax for, basically.
Now, I don't know if J.R. is actually willing to pay the tax to field a winner, but here's a plan for him to build a contender if he wants it. It's contingent on the Nets actually wanting to part with Vince Carter and BG and Tim Thomas's expiring actually being enough to satisfy them (which upon second glance seems less likely than I originally figured) and on the Bulls actually having the pieces to swing a deal for Amar'e.
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I don't think that BG/James for VC deal is that bad for NJ
If they are no longer targeting 2010, they at least need to find ways to cut their costs as it doesn’t sound like they’re leaving Jersey any time soon. If James’s salary is paid off by insurance and Gordon’s annual salary turns out a few million less than Carter’s, that’s a pretty good deal.
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
can we get them to throw in Yi for Option27's sake? :)
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Vince "is one of the best defensive 2 guards in the league"
Not that it matters much in your team scenario (or in comparison to Gordon), but to me that’s an indictment on APM more than Vince.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
well, he stunk by APM this year, so who knows. I do think he's much better than he gets credit for, though.
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
defensive APM*
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Has anybody released league-wide defensive APM numbers?
I’ve got them on my other computer so I can’t say either way right now, but his 5-year defensive APM might be high due to a really impressive 2007-2008 year. His 82games plusminus was +13.3, and the Nets were +4.0 better defensively with him on the court.
The creators weighted 2008 the most in the 5-year APM, so that’s probably where it’s coming from. The multi-year APMs are coming soon…
I would agree with that
tough to judge him on a go-nowhere team. But he sort of LIKES being on a go-nowhere team, which is partly why his teams go nowhere.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
He's probably one of those guys whose probably average without even trying
just because of size and athleticism.
Maybe pairing him
with a young superstar like Rose would rejuvinate him a little bit and cause him to step it up for 50 games (because that’s how long his seasons are). Then again it could just as easily be a disaster.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Jun 18, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Why rush the Bulls to success?
Everyone wants the Bulls to win it all by 2010, when that’s not the makeup of our team. Our four core players are 24-years old or younger, if anything we should be one of the teams most looking to build a plan towards 2011 or 2012. Winning championships is hard.
Why rush the Bulls to success? Because losing sucks, that's why.
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Also, another reason to grab some vets and "rush to success" is that you need a balance of young and older players on your team
you can’t have all your stars be 25 or younger and expect to win anything. Look at the Celtics of last year and the Lakers of this year. They had old grizzled vets (Kobe, Fisher, Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Gasol) along with younger contributors (Bynum, Ariza, Rondo, and Perkins). You have to have some balance of great contributors on cheap deals (young guys) and great contributors on bloated deals (grizzled vets who finally got paid).
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry
But Bynum really wasn’t a contributor int he playoffs the last 2 years…..
But I get the sentiment. He should be a contributor and then some, but the injuries have nullified his impact. I actually think the Lakers were mostly better with him on the bench and Pau-Odom the 4/5 all playoffs.
THE BULLS ARE GOING TO WIN IN 2010....maybe by stating this the positive vibes can make it happen.
2-shot theory
take a shot now, take another in Rose’s prime.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
"Winning championships is hard."
that’s an understatement. It’s more accurately so unlikely it’s too unlikely to even aspire to. But if you’re interested in a team that will make a profit for ya, there’s this management team I think you should check out…
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Well right
The Rose-Carter-Deng-Amare-Noah team likely doesn’t win a championship. I’m not sure they’re better than the Magic or an improved Cavs team, and it’s definitely not a better lineup than Fisher-Kobe-Ariza-Gasol-Bynum with Odom if that stays intact.
But every organization has a comparative advantage that they can exploit. The Knicks can attract free agents, so that’s what they’re planning towards. The Cavs can win now, that’s what they’re planning towards. The Thunder have a unique combination of cap space and really young talent, so they have a headstart to a 2012 run and they know it.
The Bulls have a clear advantage with the Rose-Deng-Tyrus-Noah combination that gives them a Thunderesque headstart to winning in a few years, but I’d say we’re even ahead of the Thunder and maybe the Blazers too. So why fight it? If you don’t want to lose next year, don’t worry, we’ll probably be a #4/#5 seed next year providing plenty of good entertainment to hold you over. But there’s no need to say “scrap it, let’s go for it all!” when we’ve got a great base to build around longterm.
You're including Tyrus in that group? Deng, too? There's a lot of uncertainty with Deng because of his health and whether
or not he just simply has reached his full potential. It’s rare that players peak at 21 years old, but with Deng, I’m not ruling it out as a possibility, the guy has just made zero progress in his game since he’s entered the league other than to improve his jumpshot marginally. His last two years have seen him drop off in each year. He was worse this year than last year and he was worse last year than the year before (i.e. his peak year of 2006-07). This is partially related to his health, but who’s to say he ever gets 100% healthy again? He could just be frail or injury prone.
Tyrus went from being a guy I thought would be pretty great to a guy that I’m worried about because he’s just not been the same player he used to be and he’s got a horrible, horrible coach teaching him things. He doesn’t rebound (his biggest problem) and he shoots too many jumpers for someone who doesn’t make them at a high clip (his second biggest problem, which is actually the cause of the rebounding problem). He also doesn’t give consistent effort. Tyrus is and has always been my guy, but I’m not convinced that he’s a member of that core group of guys anymore. I blame coaching for a lot of it, because Tyrus was a pretty spectacular rookie, even without a jumper, but I’m far less certain than you about how good that core really is. I’m sold on Noah and Rose for sure (even if Rose’s defense puts him amongst the worst players in the league on that side of the ball), but the other two are not players I’m sold on for the longterm. I definitely don’t think we’re in a better position than either the Thunder or the Blazers at this point. They each have a superstar player already (Roy / Durant) plus some very good complementary pieces (Rudy, maybe Oden, LMA / Westbrook, Jeff Green,maybe whomever they draft at #3). The Bulls have one player we hope is a superstar, but aren’t sure about yet (Rose), and one player who’s a starting caliber center on a title contender (Noah), and then a bunch of question marks. Deng could be a great complimentary piece, but he’s oft-injured and doesn’t have a 3 point shot to space the floor. Tyrus can’t make jumpers consistently and is a terrible finisher. I’d rather be the Blazers or the Thunder at this point.
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a charter member of the Tyrus apologist club
but I’m sending him away for Amare or Bosh whether it preemptively closes a championship window or not.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah it's more the Vince Carter thing for me than Amare
I just think if we’re going to tie up 2010, we should have a team that’s got a really good chance of winning a title, and I don’t see it with that team. Rose-Carter-Deng-Amare-Noah… I’m not sure that’s even average defensively.
Deng's a good defender, Carter is at least average, Noah is pretty excellent, Rose sucks, and Amare doesn't care.
That’s 3 out of 5 that are average or better and two who stink at defense. Does that add up to below average? I don’t know, but that team would be decidedly awesome on offense. There’s more than one way to win a title.
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't put facts such as Vinny's incompetence in my way. I've got pie in the sky ideas, damn it!
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd agree
Offensively they would be awesome, especially with Brad coming off the bench.
Defensively they’d need a new coach to make them actually try soe things on that end.
But it would be entertaining, and entertaining fills seats and sells jerseys (vince and amare should be big sellers)… JR would have to like that.
"Remember, I'm Italian".
I agree...
I wish VDN would make a rule for Tyrus that he’s not allowed to go outside 8 feet from the basket on either end of the floor. The guy’s got the tools to be a very good rebounder and needs to STOP shooting that 15-ft jumper. His advantage is his athleticism, and if he figured out how to use that, he’d be very difficult to stop.
What?
Why wouldn’t the Rose-Carter-Deng-Amare-Noah team not win a championship? They’d have as good a shot as any as the deepest in talent and in skill starting 5 in the entire league.
They may not win one, but they’d certainly be high in the mix there, presuming of course Carter-Deng-Amare all can stay healthy (Carter’s been healthier of late, but not in the past and the other two…..).
THE BULLS ARE GOING TO WIN IN 2010....maybe by stating this the positive vibes can make it happen.
The best teams in the league
have a net rating (offensive minus defensive) of +8 to +10. If the Bulls are average defensively, they’d have to be around +8 offensively, which is really hard. The best offensive team this year was the Blazers at +5.6.
Again
That doesn’t really say anything. We’d be adding Amare Stoudemire, a freakish athlete and an all NBA first team…and add Vince Carter, a iffy contract, but a guy who has all the skills to be elite and who certainly won’t hurt us alongside our core of Deng, Rose and Noah.
Remove Roy (the Blazers best player) from their team and I guarantee they aren’t hte best O team in your net rating numbers…..do the same for Phx and they’d drop too as Amare’s their best player….but he was hurt and underutlized early.
Talent wins in this league, not stats. Stats can help quantify talent, but you can’t simply say, well we weren’t all that good when we had BG and Tyrus in Amare and Vince’s shows and Deng hurt and Rose a rookie and Noah a mess until Jan (And a rookie).
This would easily be the best starting 5 in the league, with 4 guys who can take game winning shots (I guess I should put Noah in that as the 4th guy given game 6’s layup heroics, but sadly I am putting Lu-yawn there)….
There’d be no question that’s the best starting 5 in the league.
THE BULLS ARE GOING TO WIN IN 2010....maybe by stating this the positive vibes can make it happen.
Sorry
That would not be the best starting 5 in the league.
The best starting 5 in the league next year will be Blake-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Oden;-).
Just kidding(maybe)
I think the best starting 5 in the league next year will be Nelson-Lee-Turkoglu-Lewis-Howard. If the Magic keep Turk that is.
"And once again we can say, it's a GREAT day to be a Blazer."- Brian Wheeler
And if the Magic keeps Nelson....
I think they might be better to trade Jameer on the high and run with Alston at the PG spot, though if Turkoglu goes, Nelson is a complete necessity….he’s a good player, but his role lessons the big versatile madness that comes from the Hedo and Howard and Lewis game…..
just my take.
I hope the best front 7 is:
Rose-Gordon-Deng-Tyrus Thomas-Joakim Noah-Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons….but I’ve always liked the old core (BG-Kirk-Luol)….it’ll be sad to break ’em up, even though I think this is the time to do it, sadly with Luol to go.
THE BULLS ARE GOING TO WIN IN 2010....maybe by stating this the positive vibes can make it happen.
Why rush to success
Because we’ve now got 5th 6th and 7th year players that we’ve waited on….
Because we’ve only made the playoffs what 3 times in 10 years
Because we’ve only made it past the first round once in those 10 years and never really came close to sniffing the 3rd round going down what 0-3 to Detroit….
Because we finally have a budding star and have a nice core of these good 2nd or 3 man guys next to the budding 1 man superstar….
Also because we have the assets and the flexibility now and won’t if nothing is done before the start of 2011…
THE BULLS ARE GOING TO WIN IN 2010....maybe by stating this the positive vibes can make it happen.
I think this has been said before
but can we really expect the Bulls to make two trades that hinge on each other? Just getting Vince would be terrible.
A team of Harris, Gordon, Blair and Lopez would have to be intriguing to LeBron James.
IFF (I tricked ya), they were able to get Amare or Bosh, too.
Six guys of
DevIn Harris
Ben Gordon
LeBron James
Chris Bosh—-Dejuan Blair
Brooke Lopez
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I would love VC on the Bulls
and anything that we can net from BG as opposed to just letting him walk is a huge positve, so that 1st option sounds great. Where can I sign up?
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
Yeah, losing BG for nothing would hurt
Losing BG to Detroit would kill.
Hopefully Detroit overbids and at least kills their cap on BG. Not enough solace, but best spin I can find on the situation.
"Remember, I'm Italian".
This actually is a pretty post. BG for Vince…fine with me. Vince is in decline but is still effective and actually played with some heart last year. Better than losing Ben for nothing.
However Harris isn’t good at D, he gets some steals but not an overall good defender so him and Ben in the backcourt will be just as bad as Ben/Rose were this year
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