Chad Ford's Mock Draft 5.0
[From the FanShots -ed.]
Since the pool of draftable players is now solid and Chad has gained more information from "NBA team sources," he has updated his mock draft. For most teams his prognostications haven't changed. For the Bulls, however, things are a-movin'. Ford buys into the Mullens-to-Chicago talk:
"Analysis: There's been talk that the Bulls might take a look at Tyler Hansbrough and DeJuan Blair, if available. Both are definitely the kind of player John Paxson likes. But the word around the league this weekend was that the Bulls might have made a promise to Mullens, who has the most long-term upside of any remaining center, a position at which Chicago needs help. He's raw, but it's rare to get a talent like this after the lottery."
Ford still has Hansbrough going 11th to New Jersey, saying that the Nets have narrowed their choice to Hansbrough or Terrence Williams. He has Blair dropping all the way to the Hornets at 21. Personally, with the dearth of big men in this draft, I find that very hard to believe. No doubt teams are leery of committing to him now, but somebody's going to jump on the Blair train before 21 come draft night.
4 months ago
arjoseph
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At first I was on the fence, but I would take a risk on Mullens. At 16, he is worth the risk. Worst case, we can pawn him off on another team if he doesn’t work out here.
by C Smoove on Jun 16, 2009 1:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Worst case w/ Mullens:
Bulls make a trade for Bosh, and they don’t have a cheap competent big man backing him up.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How hard is that to acquire though?
If the Bulls acquire Bosh, we’re an immediate contender, and old big guys will have their phones by their bedstands. In recent years off the top of my head: McDyess, PJ Brown, Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, Zo, Robert Horry, Kevin Willis.
Unrestricted free agents the next two years that fit: Mikki Moore, Joe Smith, McDyess, Chuck Hayes, Nesterovic, Skinner, Darko, Magloire, Elson, Jason Collins, Malik Rose, Marshall, Ratliff, Oberto, Gooden, Jarron Collins
Maybe you don’t like some of those names, but I’ll guess you agree a few of those could play 10-15mpg to spell Bosh. I think The PF Who Can Spell People is the easiest position to fill in the league.
by YaoPau on Jun 16, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a difference between $1-$2 million a year for 4 years and $5-$6 million a year for 4 years.
And I’ll keep that last line in mind the next time you say a wing player is the easiest position to fill.
I’d rather have a stable team on the upswing than get a player who might fall to nothing at some point.
For shame
Rose—sucks—$7 million
Moore—sucks—$5 million
Smith—okay—$5 million
McDyess—good—$6 million
Hayes—juries out for me/nothing on offense—what will he get?
Nesterovic—okay/good—$7.8 million
Skinner—sucks—$1.1 million
Darko—meh—$6.5 million—will he stay in the states
Magloire—sucks/is a center—$4 million
Elson—sucks—$3 million
Collins—both suck-$2-$3 million
Marshall—hasn’t been good lately—$6 million—36 years old
Ratliff—eeehhhh—$11 million
Oberto—sucks/okay—$3.6 million—34 years old
Gooden—okay—$6.5 million
Collins—see above
Honestly, that’s your list? Those guys all either suck or will be old as dirt by the time the Bulls are good or are overpaid or both. Except for Drew Gooden. For someone who won’t play Ben Gordon because he’s not good enough, that you’d be willing to spend an extra $4-5 million PER YEAR on a > 30 year old pile of poo just on the 5% chance that Mullens is better than Hansbrough, this seems foolish.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
"play Gordon" s/b "pay"
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa whoa whoa
First, you’re assuming that Hansbrough won’t suck. I think he’ll be alright, but this is a guy who pre-measurement most of BaB didn’t want at #26, and now you’re saying last year’s #1 high school prospect has a 5% chance of being better than him. I think you’re jumping the gun.
Second, most of the salaries you listed are ones these players got when they were still in their prime. My guess is we could get most of the players on that list for $3 million or less.
Finally, you write that Mikki Moore and Francisco Elson suck, but how do you expect Hansbrough to be better? Moore and Elson are solid offensive players and mediocre rebounders/defenders who’ve held starting gigs in the past two years.
Maybe it’s our view of Hansbrough that’s different. I saw him play for four years and never thought he’d be much. A few measurements make me okay with drafting him, especially in a weak draft, but I’m not about to dismiss my impressions of him for four years.
by YaoPau on Jun 16, 2009 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, those guys would get less. Because they are on the declining years of their career.
I think the gulf between Mullens boom or bust potential is ginormous.
When Moore and Elson accomplish anything like Hansbrough did, the analogy can be comparable. I don’t get how you even dare call Elson a “solid offensive player”. Was it his career 51.1TS%? His 10.2 PER? His 100 ORtg? His 8.7 pts/36? He’s had two good years, at the ages of 29 & 30. You know, solidly w/in the “peak years”. I will admit that Mikki Moore does not such at offense. I only looked at one statistic (because I was looking at 15 different guys or what-not) and was too hasty.
If the 34-year-old Mikki Moore is your answer to basketball glory, have at it.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moore's not the answer to "glory" (haha) but
If we’re looking for a backup for Bosh, that’s 10-15mpg. Moore’s not great or even average, but he’ll come cheap and can hold down the fort in limited action.
by YaoPau on Jun 17, 2009 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moore would be a very good player
if he went up against the Bulls 82 times a year. :(
"Whoever was responsible for pulling that offer [to Ben Gordon] off the table...bring him before me and I'll punch him right in the face " - Frederick Pfeiffer
by Granny Waiters on Jun 19, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That'd be the Bulls fault for failing to go out and get a competent backup in free agency
If they’re going to make themselves contenders, then they’ll want to get a Rasho or a Varejao. Going in with Hansbrough as the main backup big wouldn’t be a great idea either, in reality.
by Sports2 on Jun 16, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what you think his floor is.
There’s a big difference between Rasho and Varejao. Varejao would be great, but expensive, obviously. Rasho would be a huge question mark, in my opinion. I’d rather have the $1.1 million dollar question mark than the $4-5 million question mark.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Rasho a huge question mark?
He’s been a pretty consistent player and he’s probably got 4-5 good years left.
$1.1M question mark and the $4-5M question marks have very different probabilities assigned to them.
by Sports2 on Jun 16, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, huge was the wrong word.
They do have different probabilities, but they also have different aging v. performance curves.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not getting you here.
Why would the Bulls go out and make significant expenditures to put themselves into nearly immediate contention and then undercut that significant expenditure by filling in their key backup front court spot on the cheap? If you’re going to try to win, don’t skimp.
Beyond that, for the relevant time period of the next four to five years, have a center who’s in his 30s is hardly a bad thing. There’s a pretty solid track record of guys like that being very effective players until age 36 or 37.
On the other hand, there aren’t too many bigs who come in from college and know how to play high level NBA defense.
Even if the Bulls somehow get Bosh and draft Hansbrough, I’d think it’d be folly to go into the season with a Miller/Bosh/Hansbrough frontcourt. Seriously, that’d be pretty damn weak.
by Sports2 on Jun 16, 2009 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he counts as an NBA player.
-I was wrong about Pau Gasol. I have been shamed. :(
by Prevenge on Jun 17, 2009 12:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care about this next season.
Del Negro is the coach. That’s folly enough to not even look to this season as anything but a crap year. So seriously, the whole season is going to be pretty damn weak. Besides, Derrick Rose is still the starting PG, and they’re going to let Ben Gordon go. They’re at least 2-3 years away from being a seriously-contending team.
And I’m sure there are plenty of guys in that were “very effective until age 36 or 37”. There are vastly more that are on the tail-end of $5mil/yr deals that they haven’t lived up to for 3-4 years. You can say they’ll get the next Rasho or Mikki Moore or Antonio McDyess which is certainly true, but how do you know it won’t be the next Malik Rose or Mark Blount or Adonal Foyle or Dan Gadzuric?
The idea is that Bulls won’t need defense from their 15 mpg PF. They’ll have Noah and Asik rotating at C. I think Noah will be big enough by then to at least “handle his own” against the likes of Perkins et al. (not Howard, they will struggle there), but a team that has a front court rotation of Bosh-Noah-Hansbrough-Asik (and a competent coach) will run just about any other team in the NBA out of the league.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that assumes that Asik and Hansbrough will both be good, which isn't a terrible assumption, but it's a rather big one.
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 17, 2009 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The former category of guys were always good (Rasho, McDyess, AD, DD, etc)
The latter category of guys (Blount, Foyle, Gadzuric) have always sucked.
Having the right plan for personnel acquisitions means you need the right type of personnel.
That doesn’t mean you don’t also have to go out and get the right personnel
by Sports2 on Jun 17, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you realize you've contradicted your original argument?
At the beginning of the argument, you were all about “Bulls make a trade for Bosh, and they don’t have a cheap competent big man backing him up.”
Now you’re all about “I don’t care about this next season”
In any case, all you really seem to be concerned with is that Hansbrough > Mullins in your mind. Well, I don’t even disagree with that. I’m not sure I see anyone advocating otherwise, actually.
But in your zeal to argue that point, I think you’re getting pretty far afield by suggesting Hansbrough would be an adequate primary backup. By the way, when MIller/Noah is off the court, who plays center? You think he’s going to play center? Or do you force Bosh to do it?
by Sports2 on Jun 17, 2009 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to think Noah and Miller could handle 48 minutes between them.
But for the average of 2-3 mpg that doesn’t work, Bosh is fine.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not quite what I meant
I think to get Bosh we’d have to trade both Noah and Tyrus.
I was taking from your post that you think we’d trade Miller and keep Noah to pair with Bosh.
In either case, we’d have
4-Bosh
5-Miller
or
4-Bosh
5-Noah
If we can land Bosh without giving up either Miller or Noah, that’s great, but it probably creates a bigger need for a SG or SF (b/c I’d guess we’re also trading Deng or Salmons for certain), so that’d further call into question whether we want to take either of the guys we’re talking about.
Of course, my standing assumption is that it’ll take one of those guys (Deng or Salmons) plus Noah plus Tyrus to get Bosh. And maybe a pick.
But I digress.
by Sports2 on Jun 17, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I wasn't considering having to use Noah as part of the trade.
That’s a failed assumption on my part.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't contradict myself at all.
Mullens won’t be anything next year, so at the earliest we’re discussing 2010-2011 and beyond. I’ve never once discussed this upcoming season. I don’t expect any player available at 16 to make a significant impact to this team in 2009-2010, I haven’t said that, and I don’t know why you’d suggest I would. The chances of having a productive, cheap big man worsen the further out we’re looking because the team will be better/drafting lower and the player drafted will have less experience.
I’m most concerned w/ the “most likely” production level of the two players vs. the risk involved specifically to where I think this team will be heading. I think a lot of people disagree with me. You’re changing my argument to more easily knock it down? Huh?
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One final question
Suppose, as Chad Ford seems confident about, Hansbrough is off the board.at #12.
That seems to blow a pretty big hole in your “we need to take Tyler Hansbrough and not BJ Mullins at #16” argument :)
by Sports2 on Jun 17, 2009 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously. So would Mullens being off the board for reverse.
I assumed we all assumed that this was an either-or with both available at 16. Poor assumption?
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably
Given that this is a thread where the new topic being discussed has Hansbrough gone and Mullins available :)
by Sports2 on Jun 17, 2009 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So this whole discussion we were having about Mullens vs. Hansbrough...
…you were assuming Hansbrough was gone and therefore comparing them because……..
like this other comment just above.
so that’d further call into question whether we want to take either of the guys we’re talking about.
yeah, I feel fine in my assumption that I had changed it to an either-or and everyone else went along with that.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think I was comparing Hansbrough to Mullens
I was just saying that either would be inadequate
by Sports2 on Jun 17, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Rasho.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 16, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who do they have the Bulls picking at 26?
by smash! on Jun 16, 2009 1:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Toney Douglas
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Jun 16, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hehe.
-I was wrong about Pau Gasol. I have been shamed. :(
by Prevenge on Jun 16, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, your grassroots campaign may have worked!
If it actually did, congratulations! :D
-I was wrong about Pau Gasol. I have been shamed. :(
by Prevenge on Jun 16, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh, it will probably fail in the end.
But small victories are nice:)
by smash! on Jun 16, 2009 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smash, you're funny
Everytime I see anything with Toney Douglas your on it.
A dedicated fan.
Was that you on Sam’s mailbag column stating:
Why haven’t we heard a thing about the Bulls nabbing Toney Douglas with the 26th pick? As a Seminole fan, I’ve watched his entire career and think he would be a fantastic complement to backup Rose.
Ash
by PricanStar on Jun 16, 2009 3:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sam actually replied to me via email with a completely different response than the
sarcastic one he posted on bulls.com. Hrm. And he called Toney unathletic on the web, which is dead wrong. It’s ok, my Bulls source has better knowledge than Sammy.
by smash! on Jun 16, 2009 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can you post
his reply on here? I didn’t like his response to your question and curious to see what he responded to you with.
by PricanStar on Jun 16, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure, he said:
i get some emails mentioning his name, though i don’t think the bulls want to add 2 rookies to a young team. i have nothing against douglas. i just believe the bulls don’t want 2 draft picks on the roster because of the cost and will trade 26 or use it for a player to stay in europe.
What do I need to show fire for? I'm not a dragon. - Lou Pinella
by smash! on Jun 17, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure about Mullens
The Bulls are young enough as it is and I don’t think another young, inexperienced project player like Mullens (dude put up 8.8 ppg and 4.7 rpg) will contribute much. I don’t think Noah is in the position of “teacher” quite yet.
I’ve always liked Blair and I think he could be a great bench guy to complement Bosh (should we get him). He reminds me of a Jason Maxiell type.
Rumor has it Alex Brown keeps Chris Simms' right index finger in his back pocket for good luck.
by HanelucaTC on Jun 16, 2009 3:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
"I don’t think Noah is in the position of "teacher" quite yet."
Is there a better player in the league to teach Mullens than Brad Miller?
by YaoPau on Jun 16, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only honest answer to that question is "Nobody knows what quality of teacher any player is"
Leave the teaching to actual coaches, not guys trying to hang around the game for sake of savoring their glory days as players. Mind you, I’m not saying the Bulls have any of these “actual coaches”
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
by snley on Jun 16, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
yes yes yes.
well said.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 16, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Brad Miller considered a great teacher all of a sudden?
Are Hawes and Thompson that awesome?
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thompson's pretty good.
Hawes … ehhhhhhh …
-I was wrong about Pau Gasol. I have been shamed. :(
by Prevenge on Jun 16, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Noah picked up some things from him
His interior passing is the most noticeable. And Hawes and Thompson have both turned out well considering where they were picked. How much of Thompson’s success is due to Miller, I don’t know, but Hawes has become a good passer.
Anybody who is that slow, that methodical, and that successful can help a freak athlete 7 footer. I’m not saying Brad Miller will transform Mullens into a star, but Haneluca was inferring we don’t have a player that can help Mullens along, and I think the opposite.
by YaoPau on Jun 16, 2009 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I seem to remember Noah being praised for his passing skills back when Florida won its first title and he hadn’t even declared for the draft yet.
by msquared10 on Jun 16, 2009 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is true.
Noah has always been a Miller-esque passer.
by arjoseph on Jun 16, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup... that's one (of many) reasons those UF teams were so good...
Noah and Horford weren’t afraid to pass to each other inside.
by SouthernCub on Jun 17, 2009 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I know they praise Miller, and that's obviously a good thing.
(or, at the very least, better than not liking him at all). And I know that Miller said he learned a lot from Webber and Divac. I’m not saying it’s impossible, just questioning it.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 17, 2009 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blair won't make it out of the top 20
Pacers, Pistons, Bulls, OKC, Blazers all like him
by Norsktroll on Jun 16, 2009 4:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
SUPERSTAR-IN-THE-MAKING!!!
-Does B.J. Mullens have a promise from Chicago at 16? That doesn’t seem to make a great deal of sense considering that he’s working out for Philadelphia at 17 later this week…The talk of a promise started once Mullens pulled out of the New Jersey Nets group workout, but it’s possible he just didn’t want to deal with the prospect of matching up with Luke Nevill again. Mullens really struggled in the two previous group workouts that they went head to head.
yay armchair psychological speculation!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
by tyger1147 on Jun 16, 2009 4:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Forget this Mullens guy
draft Luke Nevill.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
by MPG on Jun 16, 2009 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I live in Columbus
And watched OSU a lot last year and I telling you BJ Mullens is soft. He plays like he’s 6’9" and he has bad hands. If he wasn’t 7 foot no one would draft him.
by Winston23 on Jun 16, 2009 6:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I live in the Chicago area
And I watch OSU maybe twice this past season and BJ Mullens is very soft
man up!
by exult463 on Jun 16, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he didn't start
and he shouldn’t have. He played enough to make an impact but rarely did.
by Winston23 on Jun 16, 2009 6:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
but it's the 16th pick
what do you expect.
by Winston23 on Jun 16, 2009 6:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
One question for the experts
Why are we drafting Mullins if we already have Asik?
p.s. I know that his contract only expires next year, but Pax seems to believe a lot in this guy. He traded for him last year and had him in Berto Center getting treatment for a broken arm or something
by bull83 on Jun 16, 2009 6:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I'm all for it
If he’s already used to coming off the bench, he’d be perfect for us.
by Option27 on Jun 16, 2009 7:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ummm
is it too much to ask for for us to draft a wing (sg/sf) type and then worry about a pg or big man. The big men in this draft are 2….. griffin and thabeet. the rest are bench/ role players or complete scrubs. Lets get some actual athletic ability on the wings coupled with some height like we used to, and then we can worry about the filler…. e.g. the point and bigs.
just saying b/c the way the nba is played and called nowadays is set up for the wing players and the match-up problems they can cause.
by Chisportfan on Jun 17, 2009 12:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Derrick Rose cause match-up problems
We have Deng and Salmons who are both fine wing men and likely a reliable big man vie trade or free agency on the way.
Right now, all we need are role players
by Option27 on Jun 17, 2009 2:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we need another project? Mullens did not start on a college team and posted mediocre numbers when he played. What I hate most about the draft are these “ridiculous upside” picks that almost never seem to pan out. This team needs help now. Just pick the best available player and be done with it.
by Stay Chisel on Jun 17, 2009 7:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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