For awhile now I've been resigned to Gordon leaving because resigning him looked like it would create more long term problems than it solved from my perspective.  Especially because I wanted the Bulls to have the best possible chance of at least making a run at Wade in 2010.  Today, I changed my mind on Gordon because of discussion on this site.

The salary cap was 58.7 million dollars this season, and to be safe let's assume it remains the same.  I'm not the salary cap expert that other posters are, but the cream of the 2010 free agent crop would make a little over 17 million in 2010-11 if they didn't exercise their opt out clauses.  The Bulls getting Wade would likely ultimately be a result of a sign and trade so that Wade can get his full salary, but the Bulls still have to be a threat to sign Wade out right in order to force Miami's hand.  Bosh might be willing to come out right, but he'd probably prefer getting his max contract through a sign and trade as well.  So I'll assume the Bulls need to be close to 18 million under the cap to offer a max contract to free agent.  Which means they can't be much higher than 40 million dollars in committed salary.   

The Bulls right now have four players in Rose, Deng, Hinrich, and Noah under contract for 2010-11 at just over 29 million combined.  That's four solid pieces to add a star player to.  If the Bulls use 2 of their next 3 1st round picks that will add something around 3 million in salary.  So that puts the Bulls at roughly 32 million dollars in committed salary.  Leaving around 9 million dollars of room to play with.

So that leaves the Bulls will three players to make decisions on: Tyrus Thomas, Ben Gordon, and John Salmons.  I still believe in Tyrus, and in an ideal world I'd rather have Thomas than Gordon long term.  But, I know there's almost no way that the Bulls get a long term contract done with Thomas this summer after the way the playoffs went and that agreeing to a contract with him quickly in the summer of 2010 is just as unlikely.  If Tyrus doesn't sign this summer as expected, the Bulls should probably keep him until the summer of 2010 because the ability to renounce his rights creates flexibility.

So that leaves 9 million that can potentially be spent on Ben Gordon.  If the Bulls can get Gordon to sign a contract that pays out 9 million or less in 2010-11.  They can sign Gordon without it negatively impacting the opportunity to sign a max free agent in 2010 because the Bulls could renounce the rights to Tyrus.  And it would increase the options for the Bulls.  Because the threat exists for Wade to go to Chicago out right,  the Bulls can likely force a sign and trade with Miami.  Ben Gordon could be used in a sign and trade for Wade, which gets Wade to Chicago while still giving him his max contract.  Thomas could be signed and shipped to Miami or traded somewhere else.  The Bulls could just relinquish their rights to Thomas.  Or potentially depending on the numbers they might not have to give up the rights to Thomas in order to complete a sign and trade for a player like Wade.  Allowing the Bulls time to work out a contract with Thomas.  If the Bulls go after Bosh instead then the Bulls have the flexibility to keep Gordon and maybe send other players in a sign and trade.  The key is having the cap space to sign a Bosh or Wade out right in order to force sign and trades from either Miami or Toronto.

Salmons was aquired as Ben Gordon insurance.  Salmons can play the 2010-11 season for 5.8 million or he can opt out in the summer of 2010.  Opinion seems to be split about which option he takes, but it probably doesn't matter in the big scheme of things.  If Gordon doesn't resign then Salmons is good insurance and his contract in 2010-11 isn't big enough to impact free agency even if he doesn't opt out.  If Gordon does resign then Salmons should be able to be moved during the 09-10 season for players with contracts that will definitely be expiring.  San Antonio, for example, was reportedly interested in Salmons last season, and they'll have plenty of expiring deals next season.

The elephant in the room with all of this is of course the luxury tax.  Signing Gordon from my perspective only makes sense if the Bulls don't have to dump Hinrich or Deng for essentially nothing in order to get under the luxury tax.  While signing Gordon pushes the Bulls over the tax, perhaps they can minimize the tax by buying out Tim Thomas and/or moving Jerome James to a team with salary cap space.  Thomas already mentioned a buyout to the press.  I forget how the insurance issue ultimately works out if James is traded.  But, there's some potential to minimize the tax costs.

This is the way I can get fully behind a Gordon resigning.  If his contract doesn't cost more than 9 million or so in the 1st couple of years, and it doesn't require dumping Hinrich or Deng to do it.  Of course it also requires Bulls management having a plan.  And it would sure help if Vinny isn't the coach by the summer of 2010 if the Bulls aren't willing to fire him this summer.  Now go ahead and point out the flaws in my logic and/or math.  Start another Hinrich/Gordon war.  Show off how tough you are by calling Deng soft.  And if you get bored call LaMarcus Aldridge a ninny.