Meet Toney Douglas
Last week I was ecstatic when I read Chad Ford's Mock Draft that projected the Bulls would take Toney Douglas with the 26th pick in the 2009 draft. Now I know mocks this early in the process are rarely accurate, but since I've watched Douglas play almost every game of his Florida State career, I wanted to provide a little write up about why I think this would be a brilliant pick by the Bulls, if (BIG if) they keep the 26th pick.
Florida State's Toney Douglas just came off of leading the Noles to the NCAA tourney for the first time in 11 yrs. Born in Tampa and raised in Jonesboro, GA he's a natural leader from a close-nit family of athletes (his brother plays WR for the Falcons). A senior, he graduated with a degree in business and has nearly completed his Masters in sports management.
Toney's a decent sized PG who's official predraft camp measurements came in at 6'2" with a 6'6" wingspan and a 8' 1.5" standing reach. He's very strong and quick. People who aren't familiar with the Noles think he's a shooting guard bc he's a very good shooter, rare for college PGs, and because the Florida State offense completely revolved around him. They had such a young team (started 2 fresh & 1 soph) which meant Toney always ended up with the ball at the end of the shot clock (which unfortunately caused his shooting % to take a little hit- though it was still very good). And they ran an offense similar to motion most of the time which eliminated a lot of assists in Toney's stat column. As they became a better and better defensive team throughout the year, they started scoring more of their points off turnovers- TO's coming from either blocks inside or swipes/pokes from Toney on the perimeter. On the break, Toney was a fantastic decision maker and even though he rarely threw it down over anyone, he consistently racked up the And-1's.

All photos via cache.daylife.com
ALL-ACC
Douglas was as good as any ACC guard this season. He racked up the awards, including 3rd-team All-American by Sporting News and 1st-team All-ACC. He was a close runner-up to Lawson for the ACC player of the year. On average, Douglas outscored every one of those terrific ACC guards (23 ppg in conference) and he was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Douglas was the conference's leading scorer and the best defender in the ACC and yet he still lost to another PG in Lawson. (Obviously they decided to give it to the best player on the best team, not the best overall player.) After a battle with Duke this season, Coach Mike Krzyzewski had this to say about Toney: "He's as good as there is in college." He then labeled Toney as his favorite non-Duke player and said he would love to have him on his team.
ASSISTS
A knock on Douglas is that he's not a great assist man. Truthfully, he's actually a very solid passer, but when you don't have anyone to pass it to on the perimeter, or when you pass it and it goes right around the perimeter and back to you with 4 seconds left, you shoot it. I never thought he was selfish, I actually would often wish him to shoot the ball more, but I have to point out that his 3 APG is low. Their best post player (Alabi- future lottery pick who's relatively new to basketball) was a freshmen this year, and it took a while for him to learn how to post up properly and really seal off his defender. Once he started to excel towards the end of the year, he and Douglas really started connecting on the inside/outside game and off penetration dishes & alley-oops. And in the rare games that another Seminole (Doulkys or Singleton) was hot from beyond the arc, Toney made sure they got the ball in a position to score. (Unfortunately for the Noles, this didn't happen often!) Looking back to his high school & AAU stats, Toney's assists were way up, and he often turned in triple-doubles.
DEFENSE
What I love about TD and what makes him my dream pick at #26 for the Bulls is his defense. I watched almost every FSU game this year (thank you atdhe.net) and I've never seen a better, more instinctive college defender. FSU plays man-to-man D about 99% of the time and these guys pride themselves on being in superior shape. Toney rarely came out of the game, yet he never gave up on the defensive end, and never took a possession off. Toney's lateral quickness is unbelievable. His hands are lightening quick. He would consistently steal passes by reaching behind him to break up a pass he couldn't even see while running around picks following his own player (hard to explain, but it's like he has eyes in the back of his head).
LEADERSHIP
And then the leadership qualities are just off the charts. He embraces his natural leadership skills and his teammates LOVED him; They even started to chant "TD TIME!" at the end of Timeouts, coming out of the huddle. (I actually thought that was kind of strange at first, and he said he was embarrassed the first time that happened, but he learned to excel off of the confidence they had in him).
COMPARISON
It's difficult to compare him to any current NBA point guard, mostly because his defensive skills are superior to most, his shooting is at the top, but his passing skills haven't really been on display as much so it's hard to provide stats to back up any statements about him being a good distributor. I've seen him compared to Billups and guards from the 80's, but I really think of him as a Ben Gordon (same physical build) with superior ball-handling and defensive skills and a slightly less deadly shot. Now I'm not saying he's going to be another BG; He'd be a role-player who would be able to provide you with bursts of these similar characteristics.
Anyways, with the 26th pick I can't imagine a better pick to back Derrick up at point. What are Derrick's deficiencies?
Defense: Toney was the defensive player of the year in the ACC. He loves to play D, and his defensive abilities & smarts are off the charts. He could even teach VDN a thing or 2.
Consistent Outside Shooting: Toney scored 23 ppg in the ACC, mostly by using screens or creating his own jump shots; He's an excellent 3-pt shooter.
Vocalizing Leadership Skills: With 4 yrs of college behind him, he's got the experience; Plus he's a natural born leader and a talker on both ends, always pointing and putting people in their proper positions.
Big Shots in Big Games: Toney is clutch. This man always took the last shot, and more times than not converted. He turns the ball over just 2.4 times per game, despite getting 26.1% of his team’s possessions and playing nearly every second. (Now I'm not saying he would be in at the end of games... he should be used as needed to back up Rose, and as an emergency backup at SG. But it's nice to know just in case...)
So Toney really excels in the areas that Rose needs to improve. I see it as a perfect fit, a great compliment. Plus he's jacked (see below), shoots FTs at 81%, is a really good guy, a gym rat, and is a natural athlete. He'd fit in well.

No, he's not perfect. He's not 6'5" and doesn't have amazing hops. Some might say bc he's a college graduate he's older and that's a disadvantage, but I think that's a good thing for a late pick and for our young team. He hasn't been known to drive to the hoop in offensive sets (but he is a good finisher & decision maker when running the break so I don't know if this is simply due to their offense or his lack of ability.) But if he was perfect, we wouldn't have a chance of him falling to us, and other than these deficiencies, I can't find many flaws in his game that would dissuade me from taking him at 26.
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Would you rather have
Toney Douglas or Marcus Thornton?
"Worker bees can leave.
Even drones can fly away.
The Queen is their slave."
Thornton is a Sr. shooting guard who’s 6’ 3.75" with a 6’5" wingspan and Douglas is a Sr. 6’ 2" point guard with a 6’6" wingspan. In my ideal world, the Bulls have BG and Salmons next year, so I want a backup point guard at #26 and that’s TD. Toney can play PG and SG if needed, Thortnon can only play SG.
The biggest difference that I can see between the 2 of them is on the defensive end, where I know Toney played against arguably the best guard conference in the country in the ACC and absolutely excelled. MT played in the much weaker SEC and wasn’t known for his defense.
Looking at their stats, they are unbelievably similar on paper. They both:
are seniors
weigh 205 lbs
shot 39% from the arc
played 35 games this yr (TD played 37 mpg vs MT at 31)
had a similar possession % (TD at 27.5 vs MT at 28.9)
similar total Points (TD 751 vs MT 739)
similar Pts Per Game (TD 21.5 vs MT 21.1)
similar Offensive Rating (TD 116 vs MT 119)
similar FG % (TD 45 vs MT 47)
similar Effective FG% (TD 53 vs MT 54)
similar Shot % (TD 31.3 vs MT 32.7)
eerily similar True Shooting % (TD 58.1 vs MT 58)
identical A/T Ratio at 1.2
Toney’s Free Throw Rate is better at 43.2 vs MT at 36.9 and Toney shot a better FT% (TD 81 vs MT 74). MT had more rebounds, easily beating Toney in Off Rebounds, but they had a similar Def Rebound % (3.1 to 3.4). Other than that, it’s all about defense, leadership and intelligence- three qualities in which Douglas reins supreme.
Solid work Smash.
Toney Douglas was quite a college player and would add some much needed defense at the guard position. Should be interesting to see if the Bulls seriously consider Toney or not. I think he would be a great addition.
I just looked at
some of his highlights and he does remind me of Ben Gordon.
If he defends as well as you say he does then I think it would be a great pick, especially if the bulls are looking for a point in the draft and they can use the 26th pick at not a PG with the 16th.
I would like the Bulls to use the 16th on Blair and the 26th on Tony Douglas if we keep the picks. I think those to picks would be the toughness we need at the PF and PG positions, short but tough.
They are both short but with decent wingspans. Blair’s 8’10.5"standing reach is just 1.5" shorter than Millsap’s 9’.
I REALLY don't like taking a back-up PG in the first round.
I just don’t understand how a guy who plays 10-15 mpg is a good idea when the Bulls have other needs. I like Douglas, and if the Bulls had a 2nd round pick, I’d be all over it. His contract wouldn’t be guaranteed; the Bulls could still fill other needs.
I will say that I’d be less bothered at taking a backup PG than the (to me) absurd idea of taking one at 16. If they get Williams or Henderson at 16 (Blair is not available), I wouldn’t cry about it. You would expect Henderson or Williams to be the backup SG/SF, and it’s just about all SG and PG’s sitting in the 20’s.
If, however, the Bulls do take a SG/SF at 16 and Mullens, Hansbrough or Lawal (guys currently going in the early-20’s on DraftExpress right now), they need to take one of them over Douglas.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Lets look at the weaknesses
stated on NBADraft.net of the players you mention for our 26th pick vs Douglas.
Hansbrough:
Weaknesses: At 6’ 8’’ Hansbrough lacks ideal size for the NBA PF position … Struggles defending taller and more athletic players even at the college level … Not athletic enough to overcome his size disadvantage to be a standout at the next level … Needs to develop face-up game … Hansbrough overpowers most of the players at the college level and will not be able to do the same in the NBA. Scores most of his baskets on sheer will and hustle, lacking a great skill level in the post … Defensively he struggles to stay in front of quicker and more athletic players outside paint … His ball handling is a big question at the next level (more than 2 dribbles often results in a TO). His jump-shot is unnatural and needs work as well as his shooting motion … His footwork and lateral-quickness needs improvement … Though he has improved his range, Hansbrough has to become a more consistent outside shooter …
Mullens:
Weaknesses: Doesn’t always take over the way hes capable … Detractors point to the fact that he hasn’t developed into a center that dominates every time out … Must develop more of a killer instinct. He has the intensity and desire, just needs to sustain it more consistently … Not a huge shot blocker, has solid leaping ability and the ability to become a better defender with work at it …
Lawal:
Weaknesses: Right now, Lawal is raw and very limited offensively and needs to work on his low post game (he needs a go-to move) … Has troubles putting the ball on the floor and making moves (commits a high number of travels) … Lawal must work on his outside shot as well as free-throws (.541 FT %) … His shot doesn’t have good mechanics and he doesn’t feel comfortable shooting the ball … It will be interesting to see if he improves his outside game and learns how to beat his defenders off the dribble (it would make him very difficult player to guard at the next level). Lacks experience … Will commit some cheap fouls and get into unnecessary foul trouble …
Douglas:
Weaknesses: Not very athletic … Mediocre first step and limited open court speed hinder his ability to get by people … Relies heavily on the P&R game to get into the paint … Plays between positions, but does not posses the playmaking and vision or the size and explosiveness to ever assume full time duty at either guard spot … His turnover numbers have always been even with his assists, which is a knock on his ability to distribute as well as take care of the ball … It may be because he was asked to carry the scoring load, but he has not shown much in terms of creating for others … Even though he was a defensive stopper in college, because of his physical deficiencies he may struggle matching up with the quicker point guards, or the bigger and more athletic wings in the NBA.
Now Smash! provided alot of details above about Douglas which explains the reasons for the weaknesses stated above for Douglas. If the Bulls are going to use one of the 1st round picks on a PG I rather them pick Douglas at 26 instead of a PG at 16. Douglas has Defense, but it doesn’t end there he shoots almost as well as Gordon and as Smash stated could back-up Gordon or Salmons if Gordon doesn’t sign. With the 16 pick we need low post power and toughness thats why I think Blair is our best choice, but if the Bulls feel that he will be gone by 16 thats when they should pull the trigger on a trade that would get them in a position to get Blair or trade for a tough PF ala Millsap.
There are so many “if the Bulls” that makes it hard to know what the Bulls are going to need in the Draft for the 2009-2010 season, but one thing that is for sure is the Bulls need toughness and power to get through Orlando’s Dwight Howard, KG and Perkins in the East and the three bigs you mentioned are not the ones.
Lawal and Hansbrough aren't tough?
You got that where?
I’m glad that we had someone (an obviously biased fan) to explain away all of Douglas’s short-comings. Now if you can find the same for the others, we can have a conversation.
NBADraft (and you) should update its “At 6’ 8’’ Hansbrough lacks ideal size for the NBA PF position” point since it is known now not to be true.
And if you think Blair is the one to stop Perkins, KG or Dwight Howard, I laugh in your foolish, foolish face.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
I did not say stop, but Blair
has a better chance against those C/PF than Hansbrough or Lawal.
Lawal is Gani get crushed by them. LOL
Laugh my friend laugh, cause it’s all good.
Most sense
Is to draft at 16 a player that is more SG but can help at SF (my choice is T. Williams) then at 26 to pick a backup PG (ala Douglas here) then pickup a role playing big man in FA and we will have the depth we need for 82 games.
Starters
Rose PG Salmons SG Deng SF Noah C/PF either Thomas or Miller depending on matchups
Bench
Hinrich first guard off bench and Thomas/Miller nonstarter first big off bench
Then we still have both rookies Douglas-Williams for back court and we would have FA pickup and Gray as extra bigs
10 man rotation and if VDN can keep some cohesion to starters and backups come playoff time they should be very aquainted to playing together
Via Draft Express's Situational Stats Review (using Synergy Sports video editing software):
Toney Douglas, was one of the most efficient players on our list, using over 20 possessions per game (20.7). His overall PPP of 1.04 was the second best of all players, while his PPP as a finisher of 1.22 was sixth best. As a jump shooter, he scored 1.41 PPP on unguarded catch and shoot attempts, and 1 PPP on pull ups. A gifted off the ball player who scores 1.23 PPP (5th) shooting off of screens and 1.14 PPP in spot up situations, Douglas is only an average shot creator (.85 Isolation PPP), but he doesn’t turn the ball over in the half court almost at all (9.7%, 2nd), has experience running the pick and roll (5.3 Pos/G, 2nd), is an excellent defender, and seems like an ideal complement to a taller ball-handling guard. His stock has risen in recent months, and will be interesting to how his limitations as a distributor (he ranks dead last in amongst all passing metrics amongst draft-eligible PGs) factor in to where he’s selected on draft day.
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on Jun 1, 2009 6:05 PM CDT reply actions
From Chad Ford's chat today:
Mitch Kupchak (Los Angeles): Toney Douglas. Would he be an immediate upgrade over Derek Fisher, even as a rookie at the 29th pick?
SportsNation Chad Ford: Yes. I have the Lakers taking him in the mock draft. Phil Jackson doesn’t need a pure point guard and Douglas seems like the perfect fit.
He's going to be good in the right situation.
He has legitimate “strengths” to his game that can translate to the NBA. And if he goes somewhere where those can be fostered and developed and played to, he’ll be a good fit.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
All the athletic testing #'s are finally back. Mostly all good news for Toney...
TD smoked suckers at speed and agility, while landing at the top of the pack for benching & low body fat.
He was the fastest at sprinting and 5th best at agility. I guess that helps explain his defensive prowess. Also had the 9th lowest body fat % at 5.2, which surprised me a little bc he’s no waif.
He easily beat Flynn & Lawson at the speed/agility. Surprising since he’s stronger, and taller than both.
His vert was predictably avg (well, no step was higher than Hansborough, but max was avg).
Add these new results to the ones already reported- his size (6’2" – 183) and surprising wingspan (6’6")- and TD has to be happy with this showing. He’s going to make some team who needs a backup PG very happy in the late 1st round…
Toney Douglas
On his pre-draft workouts: "I feel great. No butterflies, I’m just being Toney Douglas. It’s like playing in the ACC; you’ve got to come in every night ready to play. Every time I step on the floor I’m going to give 100 percent."
Chuck Swirsky/Toney Douglas



















