Draft Watch 2009 (6/4)
by Jamaicanpi on May 29, 2009 12:40 PM CDT
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*We lost our 2nd round pick to acquire the rights to Omer Asik last year.
**DraftExpress thinks we acquired Denver's pick, SI says we received San Antonio's pick (the difference is pick 26 vs 25).
Pick 16: 30% chance the player is above average.
Pick 26: 85% chance they suck.
who's available:
Who's in, who's out according to Chad Ford
links to mock draft sites and who the Bulls draft:
DraftExpress (last update: June, 4): T. Williams / O. Casspi
nbadraft.net (last update: June, 3): B. Mullens / T. Smith
RealGM (last update: June, 2): T. Williams / C. Budinger
Yahoo (last update: May, 20): T. Williams / D. Collison
ESPN (last update: May, 20): D. Blair / T. Douglas
InsideHoops (last update: May, 24): J. Holiday / P. Mills
ignore height (more or less):
Better measurements than height
- talks about how to value standing reach, wingspan, height
- shows large residuals when correlating standing reach or wingspan to height
Interpreting the 2009 draft measurements
quality of player vs pick:
How does each pick stack up to the 1st overall
NBA draft success and lessons --- part 2
- Big men bust. Late picks are good for guards and wings
thinking about college stats:
College stats (per 40 pace adjusted default)
How do NCAA statistics translate to the NBA ---
- Good: block, assist, rebound, 3 P%, and FT%; Bad: FTA, PPG, FG%, and FGA
draft related podcasts
Discusses Clark, Blair, Johnson, and Mullens.
Discusses Henderson, Williams Budinger, Thornton, Ellington
Doug Thonus and Jonathon Givony
- Discuss moving up in the draft and various bigs and wings
Bulls workouts (potential 1st round picks)
B.J. Mullens (3/22), D. Collison (3/24), M. Thornton (3/25), D. Blair (6/10), J. Flynn (5/24), P. Mills (5/24), P. Beverley (5/24), C. Budinger (5/24),
T. Hansbrough, T. Williams, D. Summer, T. Smith, D. Green (unknown)
FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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If I'm Gar Foreman, there's three players I'm looking hard at
1. DaJuan Blair
2. Terrence Williams
3. BJ Mullens
mpg and I were hot on the Mullens trail all year, but it died down after a crappy Big Ten and NCAA Tournament run. But the predraft measurements came out today, and he’s 7’1" in shoes. And he was the #1 prospect in the nation coming in last season. And he can dunk between his legs.
And yeah, he sometimes (most of the time) looks like he doesn’t care. And he somehow doesn’t know how to box out (I’ve never seen him do it). But at #16, anybody good enough to hang in a rotation is a good pick, and the track record for guys this big, this athletic, and this highly touted is better than where he’s currently projected. Plus if he mopes around Brad Miller will fuck him up.
by YaoPau on May 29, 2009 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Nice
Plus if he mopes around Brad Miller will fuck him up.
I laughed.
"Vinny continues to act like a crazed arsonist pouring gasoline on our season while running around carrying a torch yelling 'I’m in charge. Don’t any of you foolish knaves try to second guess me. I know gasoline is a liquid but I’m pretty sure it isn’t flammable and the odor gives me a natural high.'" - Tyrusmancrush
There might be something to it, too.
Miller is one of those guys who managed to balance a good career with lifetime that wasn’t exactly bereft of…leisure.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
The measurements just came out.
Here’s the link.
Some interesting ones: Hansborough actually has much better size/reach than expected, Blair’s standing reach is equal to (or better than) some fairly successful interior players (Kevin Love, Al Horford, Millsap), Griffin’s got the tiny arms of a T-Rex, and BJ Mullins is 7 foot frakking 1.
Fun fun.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
Man alive.
Not my day!
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
Hansbrough may be taller than originally estimated...
but I still bet his vertical leap is hovering around 22"
No way.
A terrible athlete jumps better than that. That might be the worst vertical in the history of the combine. He’s probably 30 or so.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
Hey, I don't jump better than that
Three things you must know:
-"Ben Gordon is a bundle of muscle and clutch. That's all he's made of. Drink BG7 energy drink, you'll grow a pair of balls on your balls."
-Pau Gasol: The defense of a seven foot ladder paired with the post presence of Manute Bol.
-Joakim Noah is better than you.
I'm 5'7" Chunky and White and I have a 24" Vertical lol
(Asshole Sr) "If you learn one thing here, NEVER pass out in Ohio."
what is the point of the "shoes"/"no shoes" columns if some guys gain 1.5 in.
wearing shoes while others only gain .75 in?
As the old Nike ad used to say "it's gotta be the shoes."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Abr_LU822rQ
"Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." --Newton
by fundamentallysound on May 29, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Because players play in shoes.
I assume they make them (or try to make them) wear the same shoes they’ll work out in or something. On one hand, it’s weird for the reason you mentioned. On the other hand, I’d much rather see how tall a guy is in shoes than not in shoes. I mean, if someone plays their college career in shoes that give him 1.5" lift (maybe he has Dr. Shoals or something), then he’s obviously not hampered by it. And maybe another guy likes the feel of being closer to the ground, or something. How they would know what a guy wears in college, I have no idea.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Chase Budinger is alligator arms!!!
I’m not surprised at all. He definitely didn’t look “long”, and I wonder if that’s something that makes his “lateral quickness” look worse than it otherwise might be. A lot of guys in his height range had 3"-6" wider in wingspan, and that certainly makes a difference in defending from the perimeter.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
The new espn insider mock as of 05/28
Has us taking at #16 – Gerald Henderson 6’4 gd Duke guard
#26- DaJuan Summers 6’8 small forward Georgetown
Toney Douglas
- to The Lakers
Analysis: The Lakers have issues at point guard, and eventually they’ll have to find a replacement for Derek Fisher. Douglas can play a similar role as a clutch shooter and a terrific on-the-ball defender.
I thought Douglas was an undersized SG
and, as we know, undersized SG does not equal PG.
"Vinny continues to act like a crazed arsonist pouring gasoline on our season while running around carrying a torch yelling 'I’m in charge. Don’t any of you foolish knaves try to second guess me. I know gasoline is a liquid but I’m pretty sure it isn’t flammable and the odor gives me a natural high.'" - Tyrusmancrush
then again, in the triangle offense it could probably work
"Vinny continues to act like a crazed arsonist pouring gasoline on our season while running around carrying a torch yelling 'I’m in charge. Don’t any of you foolish knaves try to second guess me. I know gasoline is a liquid but I’m pretty sure it isn’t flammable and the odor gives me a natural high.'" - Tyrusmancrush
He's ball-dominant SG, though.
Think of a shorter Brandon Roy. (and much, much lesser skills)
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
You have no idea what you're talking about here...
by smash! on May 30, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Meaning, he's a PG that can score as a well as a SG.
I know exactly what I’m talking about. And if you think his skills are much, much less than Roy, then you definitely don’t know what you’re talking about.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
And if you think his skills are much, much less than Roy, then you definitely don’t know what you’re talking about.
That doesn’t even make any sense.
*are not, of course
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
More insider info from espn
ESPN.com acquired the official heights and weight measurements from the 2009 NBA draft combine on Friday. Every year, NBA teams analyze this information closely to get a feel for how tall, or short, draft prospects actually are. And every year, there are a few winners and losers in the process.
Big Winners
• A lot of people questioned the height of Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin during the season. At the draft combine, Griffin’s measurements were a mixed bag. He checked in at 6-foot-8½ inches in bare feet and measured a legit 6-10 in shoes. That part was fine. But his wingspan came in at just 6-11 and he ended with a standing reach of 8-9. That’s just one inch longer than the reach registered by Tyreke Evans and an inch and a half shorter than DeJuan Blair’s.
• Speaking of Evans, he had the most impressive measurements of the camp. He stands just 6-4 in socks and 6-5¼ in shoes. But he had a terrific 6-11¼ wingspan and an awesome 8-8 standing reach, both bests among guards in the camp.
• North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough also measured out a little bigger than expected. He was 6-8½ in socks and 6-9½ in shoes. He has a decent 6-11½ wingspan and ended up with a taller standing reach (8-10) than Griffin’s.
• Arizona’s James Harden also passed the smell test. He measure in at 6-4 in socks. But his 6-10¾ wing span and 8-7½ standing reach make him one of the bigger guards in the draft.
• UCLA’s Jrue Holiday was the biggest point guard, standing at 6-3¼ in socks and 6-4¼ in shoes. His 6-7 wingspan and 8-4½ standing reach were also tops among point guards.
• Gonzaga’s Austin Daye measured 6-9¾ in socks and 6-10¾ in shoes. His 7-2¾ wingspan was the second-longest of anyone in the camp, and only B.J. Mullens and Hasheem Thabeet had longer standing reaches than Daye’s (9-2).
On the shorter side of things …
• Ty Lawson and Patrick Mills measured as the smallest players in the draft. Both were listed at 5-11¼ in socks and 6-0½ in shoes. Neither player is very long, either. Lawson had the smallest wingspan (6-0¾) and standing reach of (7-10½) of the camp
• Blair also measured out shorter than expected. He was 6-5¼ in socks and 6-6½ in shoes. However, he has a ridiculous 7-2 wingspan and a very respectable standing reach of 8-10½.
• UConn’s Thabeet also measured somewhat shorter than expected. He measured in at 7-1¼ in socks and 7-2½ in shoes. He has a massive 7-6¼ wingspan and a camp-high 9-5 standing reach. Those aren’t big deviations, but a few people commented on them.
• Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody turned some heads with his slimmed-downed and chiseled physique. But he measured just 6-6¼ in socks. However, the guy has almost no neck and made up for it with a very solid 8-10 standing reach.
• Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn somehow managed to crack 6-0 in shoes. Combine that with his 6-4 wingspan and he measured slightly taller than he looks. His standing reach, however, came in at a paltry 7-11½, third-smallest in the combine.
• Stephen Curry measured a legit 6-2 in socks and 6-3¼ in shoes. However, his 6-3 wingspan left him on the shorter side for standing reach.
• As far as weights go, VCU’s Eric Maynor was the lightest guy in the camp at 163 pounds. Darren Collison was right behind him at 166 pounds. Austin Daye was shockingly skinny for a 6-11 kid, coming in at a paltry 192 pounds.
• Blair was the heaviest player in the camp at 276. But that’s a big improvement from the 300 pounds he had ballooned to at one point.
NBA DRAFT COMBINE MEASUREMENTS
Player Height Without Shoes Height With Shoes Weight Wingspan Standing Reach
Jeff Adrien, UConn 6’ 5¼" 6’ 6¼" 235.2 7’ 2" 8’ 11½"
Rodrigue Beaubois, France 6’ 1¼" 6’ 2¼" 182.4 6’ 9¾" 8’ 4"
DeJuan Blair,
Pittsburgh 6’ 5¼" 6’ 8½" 276.6 7’ 2" 8’ 10½"
Derrick Brown, Xavier 6’ 7½" 6’ 8½" 224.6 7’ 2½" 8’ 11½"
Chase Budinger, Arizona 6’ 6¼" 6’ 7" 206.4 6’ 7" 8’ 4"
DeMarre Carroll, Missouri 6’ 6¼" 6’ 7¾" 207.2 6’ 10" 8’ 9"
Omri Casspi, Israel 6’ 7¾" 6’ 9¼" 211.1 6’ 9¼" 8’ 10½"
Dionte Christmas, Temple 6’ 4¼" 6’ 5½" 210.6 6’ 9" 8’ 6½"
Earl Clark, Louisville 6’ 8½" 6’ 10¼" 226.4 7’ 2 1/5" 9 1½"
Darren Collison, UCLA 6’ ¼" 6’ 1½" 166.2 6’ 3" 8’ ½"
Dante Cunningham, Villanova 6’ 7" 6’ 8¼" 227.4 6’ 11" 8’ 10½"
Stephen Curry, Davidson 6’ 2" 6’ 3¼" 181.0 6’ 3½" 8’ 1"
Austin Daye, Gonzaga 6’ 9¾" 6’ 10¾" 191.8 7’ 2¼" 9’ 2"
DeMar DeRozan, USC 6’ 5 1/5;" 6’ 6¼" 211.2 6’ 9" 8’ 6 1/5"
Toney Douglas,
Florida State 6’ 1" 6’ 2" 183.4 6’ 6" 8’ 1½"
Wayne Ellington,
North Carolina 6’ 4¼" 6’ 5¼" 202.4 6’ 6½" 8’ 4"
Tyreke Evans, Memphis 6’ 4" 6’ 5¼" 220.6 6’ 11¼" 8’ 8"
Jonny Flynn, Syracuse 5 11¼" 6’ 3/4" 195.6 6’ 4" 7’ 11½"
Taj Gibson, USC 6’ 6½" 6’ 9¾" 214.4 7’ 4" 9’ 1"
Danny Green,
North Carolina 6’ 5¼" 6’ 6½" 208 6’ 10" 8’ 7"
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma 6’ 8½" 6’ 10" 248.4 6’ 11¼" 8’ 9"
Tyler Hansbrough,
North Carolina 6’ 8¼" 6’ 9½" 234.2 6’ 11½" 8’ 10"
Luke Harangody,
Notre Dame 6’ 6¼" 6’ 8" 240.4 6’ 9¾" 8’ 10"
James Harden,
Arizona State 6’ 4" 6’ 5¼" 222.0 6’ 10¾" 8’ 7½"
Gerald Henderson, Duke 6’ 4" 6’ 5" 214.6 6’ 10¼" 8’ 6.5"
Josh Heytvelt, Gonzaga 6’ 10" 6’ 11" 246.2 7’ 1¼" 9’ 0"
Jordan Hill, Arizona 6’ 9¼" 6’ 10¼" 232.4 7’ 1½" 9’ 0"
Jrue Holiday, UCLA 6’ 3¼" 6’ 4¼" 199.0 6’ 7" 8’ 4½"
Joe Ingles, Australia 6’ 7¾" 6’ 8¼" 209.2 6’ 10¼" 6’ 9"
Damion James, Texas 6’ 6¼" 6’ 7½" 224.0 7’ ¾" 8’ 10"
James Johnson,
Wake Forest 6’ 7" 6’ 7 ¾" 257.2 7;’ ¾" 8’ 9½"
Gani Lawal,
Georgia Tech 6’ 7 ¾" 6’ 9" 229.0 7’ 0" 8’ 10"
Ty Lawson,
North Carolina 5’ 11¼" 6½" 198.6 6’ ¾" 7’ 10½"
Eric Maynor, VCU 6’ 2¼" 6’ 3¼" 163.6 6’ 2½" 8’ 1"
Jack McClinton, Miami (Fla.) 5’ 11¾" 6’ 3/4" 185.2 6’ 2½" 8’ 0"
Jerel McNeal, Marquette 6’ 1½" 6’ 3" 190.4 6’ 7¼" 8’ 3½"
Jodie Meeks, Kentucky 6’ 3" 6’ 4" 211.4 6’ 4½" 8’ 2"
Patrick Mills,
Saint Mary’s 5’ 11¼" 6’ ½" 175.4 6’ 2" 7’ 11"
B.J. Mullens, Ohio State 6’ 11¾" 7’ 1¼" 258.2 7’ 1½" 9’ 3"
Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State 6’ 8¾" 8’ 10" 239.6 7’ 1" 8’ 11"
A.J. Price, UConn 6’ ½" 6’ 2" 192.8 6’ 3¾" 8’ 1"
Tyler Smith, Tennessee 6’ 5¼" 6’ 6" 212.0 6’ 9¾" 8’ 8½"
DaJuan Summers, Georgetown 6’ 7¼" 6’ 8½" 243.0 7’ ¾" 8’ 10½"
Jermaine Tyler,
Central Florida 6’ 3½" 6’ 4¾" 207.4 6’ 8¾" 8’ 6"
Jeff Teague,
Wake Forest 6’ ¼" 6’ 1½" 175.2 6’ 7½" 8’ 2½"
Hasheem Thabeet, UConn 7’ 1¼" 7’ 2½" 267.2 7’ 6¼" 9’ 5"
Marcus Thornton, LSU 6’ 2¾" 6’ 3¾" 194.4 6’ 5" 8’ 3"
Greivis Vasquez, Maryland 6’ 4¾" 6’ 6" 197.4 6’ 7¼" 8’ 5"
Terrence Williams, Louisville 6’ 5" 6’ 6¼" 213.2 6’ 9" 8’ ¾"
Sam Young,
Pittsburgh 6’ 5¼" 6’ 6¾" 222.8 6’ 10¾" 8’ 9½"
For those curious
Some of the measurements do differ from DX, which suggests that they were done independently. The numbers though are close. All players listed above have their measurements on DX.
These measurements come from a stroy posted by Chad Ford
He was at the NBA Combine …. lol …. NBA and Combine just doesn’t go together for me. So maybe Chab’s numbers are off or it could be DX. I just posted what he reported because it included what the gm’s were saying.
I don't think they are off
I was just posting saying they were not identical. The measurements are never completely accurate. I don’t think Chad is wrong, he just has different numbers.
Can someone tell me how Taj Gibson goes from 6'6 1/2" to 6'9 3/4" when he puts on his shoes?
I mean come on. Does he wear heels when he is playing.
He brought these to the combine...
by Aisander D on May 31, 2009 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
He doesn't just bring basketball to your team,
be brings groovetacularity.
Three things you must know:
-"Ben Gordon is a bundle of muscle and clutch. That's all he's made of. Drink BG7 energy drink, you'll grow a pair of balls on your balls."
-Pau Gasol: The defense of a seven foot ladder paired with the post presence of Manute Bol.
-Joakim Noah is better than you.
Those are actually pretty sweet.
Imagine how good BG would be if he had thoes extra inches…
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
by MPG on Jun 2, 2009 6:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Jamaican
DX says the Bulls have the 26th pick, not the 25th pick. The Spurs pick is the 25th overall that OKC has. The 26th that the Bulls have is Denver’s.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
But umm
SI is wrong here. I realize that’s what you said now. My bad. DX is correct; SI is not.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Too easy...
Real men type out the material, they don’t need no stinkin copy n paste!!
"You never got me down, Ray. Ya hear me? Never got me down."
-Jake Lamotta
by The Red Menace on May 30, 2009 12:25 AM CDT reply actions
Drafting Henderson is the best case scenario
He gives the Bulls sooooo many options because he can step in immediatley and play or make BG or Kirk expendable. The biggest option is leverage against BG, so you can resign him at a reasonable cost or feel comfortable letting him walk. This would also assure plenty of cap space for 2010. Drafting Henderson would also allow the Bulls to trade Kirk if they rather have BG and still have a good 3 gaurd rotation. Kirk + Tyrus should be able to draw a quality player (who?). The Bulls will probably need a 3 team trade because there are no simple answers of Kirk + Tyrus for…
FYI. I don’t think the biggest question of this off season is Ben Gordon. The biggest question mark is the future of Tyrus Thomas. Drafting Henderson is just step 1.
Other "best case scenarios" exist
I still like doing what it takes to get Blair. His standing reach, and wingspan, plus demonstrated rebounding skills and bulk make him a safe pick even at short height. Balances Noah, and Tyrus, who are not bruisers, helps screen for Rose drives to rim, and is a defensive force in the paint/blocks that Bulls need. Plus he’s tough and an intimidating leader for playoffs, something hard to come by, and presently mostly missing on today’s Bulls.
The problem is Blair is a stopgap, not an answer.
He’s not going to be the starting PF on a championship team, and on this Bulls team he’s best suited as a role player. When such role players can be had on the relative cheap right now, I’d rather court a veteran than guarantee a not-insignificant amount money to an unproven, undersized rookie.
As long as we’re talking about it, if we’re going to go the small, ‘intense’ PF route, let’s look at someone like Craig Smith, who was in Blair’s exact position 3 years ago—big body but still undersized for the position, great collegiate track record, first round pick. He was one of the most undervalued players in the league his first two seasons and was made expendable the second Minny drafted Kevin Love.
30 minutes per game...
You’re right to point out that Blair might not be a starter….and as the other question in this threadlet points out, we don’t know the fate of Tyrus. If Noah is C, then it would be hard to say that Tyrus was playing PF if Blair was also on the court, so I don’t know what you call it, but it could be an effective front court.
I was impressed watching Blair go up against Thabeet during the season… and he has that intangible like Rodman when it comes to rebounds and defense. On some teams Rodman was a quintessential role player, but he started for championship teams.
Millsap played 30 minutes per game for Jazz this year averaging about 13pts/9rb, and may become fulltime starter if Boozer leaves. Millsap has a nice midrange jumper though.
Guess I put a lot of stock in “will to win”, natural rebounding ability, bulk, and “tude” when it comes to Blair. Otherwise, he is kind of a hard to place tweener when it comes to position. He wouldn’t complement just any lineup…you’d have to really need what he brings. I think Bulls do as constituted.
Sorry, I don’t know Craig Smith’s upside: what can he bring to this Bulls team?
We're definitely on the same page with regard to Rodman's role/value
but he was very much the exception to the rule. More often than not, undersized big men who worked collegiate opponents don’t do the same at the professional ranks, though I’ll give you Blair’s statistics, particularly rebounding, project that he won’t be a bust.
My point is that I’d rather take on a minimal amount of salary for a ‘proven’ player who fits the same mold as Blair, than tie up cap space in a guaranteed contract for what is ultimately a question mark. If we draft him at #16, I think we’ll all agree that we still need to address the PF/C position, which would likely be done through the use of excess cash come free agent season.
Millsap works for the Jazz because he’s a natural complement to Boozer and Kirilenko—if we had one or both of them, I’d say the pick makes a lot of sense. I do like Blair, but until we get the pieces he’s designed to complement, I’m not sure the value he brings to this team and its needs is worth what we’d pay him given the uncertainty surrounding his ultimate ‘success.’
As for Craig Smith, he would immediately become our most polished inside scorer, he’s very physical, and he’s efficient on the offensive end—shoots over 50% from the field and is an excellent low-post passer. He’s averaged about 9pts/5rbs in 20 mpg for his career, which extrapolates out almost exactly to what Millsap did this season in 30 mpg.
I’m not saying he’s the guy we should go after—though I’m starting to talk myself into it—I was just using him as an example as a player who we know will be the player we expect Blair to be. The draft is exciting because of the projections and unknowns, but I’d rather take uncertainty out of the equation as long as it exists cheaply elsewhere in the market.
Not to poke holes just for fun
If history has taught us anything it is that relying on rookies to do anything at all that is expected in terms of production is just flat out crazy.
I am reading a lot of posts across the community as a whole at the moment (SBNATION) where fans are talking about where a draft pick will slot into the starting line up.
I can only refer you to the Percentages posted at the top of the page
Pick 16: 30% chance the player is above average.
Pick 26: 85% chance they suck.
With the best pick the bulls have, there is a greater than 2/3 chance the player is not even a rotation player next season.
" Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes, that way when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes. "
I was vague
Because I did not want to get into too much detail, but if you look at the links under player vs. pick. We actually have about a 60% chance that the player does get some rotation minutes, but there’s about a 30% chance the player is a solid starter and 30% chance the player is a bench player with a below 15 PER (15 PER is the average for the league if I remember correctly).
The problem, aside from Jamaican's follow-up,
is that I’d assume those statistics account for ‘mis-drafting’ (i.e. not selecting the player who will achieve the highest level of future performance).
If you figure that there are 150 starters at any given time in the NBA, and if you assume that the average starter does so for 10 years in his career, then in a draft with perfect forward-looking information the top 15 selections or so should all be future starters. This is an obvious oversimplification that doesn’t account for things like positional needs, but it gets the idea across.
I don’t think Blair would start consistently for the Bulls this year or in the coming years, assuming we’re competitive, and as such I do not think he is worth the #16 pick. If he was available later, which he would be in a draft class of normal strength, it makes sense.
+1
I don’t think the biggest question of this off season is Ben Gordon. The biggest question mark is the future of Tyrus Thomas.
"As a basketball player gordon is a useless as tits on a a whore" - BigWay (Dec 2, 2008). BigWank, I'll miss you more than all the others. This song is for you, my brother!
My Offseason Wish List
Often wrong but never uncertain….here are the Bulls’ no-brainers for the upcoming offseason:
- Hold on to Kirk Hinrich with both hands. Put him under house arrest if need be, just don’t let him leave Chicago, even if it means showing Ben Gordon the door. Blasphemy, I know, but the reasoning is simple enough—the Bulls are at their best when Hinrich’s on the floor. From a statistical standpoint, he had the highest +/- rating per minute of anyone in the regular rotation, projecting to 7 points more than BG over a full 48 minutes. Obviously, this stat is not meant to imply that he is the team’s best player, as +/- is by no means the end-all, be-all; he is, however, the team’s smartest player, which makes him incredibly valuable beyond the box score. In the Boston series, the best unit we consistently put on the court ran Rose at the one and Hinrich at the two. The ball movement was the most fluid I’ve seen of any Bulls team (yes, ever), even if it was frequently interrupted by Ben holding it for 4 seconds before jacking up a contested fade-away. Kirk is the only capable shooter on the team (3P% only 0.9% below BG for the year) that still makes the extra pass when it’s the right play, and his ability to excel at both guard spots gives the team some much-needed flexibility. He had a terrible 2007, no question about it. But in 2009, specifically the playoffs, he reasserted himself and proved that he’s the type of player that makes everyone around him better, especially Derrick Rose. Not to mention the fact that he’s still our best defender.
- There is no one expected to be available at #16 that adequately fits a need and is worth the price, so the smart play is to package the #16 pick in a deal, preferably involving a sign-and-trade with Ben. If we make a move for an elite power forward, throw Tyrus and some expiring contracts into the package; if not, grab unprotected future first round picks, as stockpiling puts us in a great position to make a trade (perhaps mid-season if we’re in contention, when losing teams look to unload would-be free agents….Chris Bosh….). I believe Ben’s tenure in Chicago is over, and while I’m grateful for what he did in his time here, it’d be a shame to just let him walk even if we’re simply clearing cap space.
- The biggest no-brainer of all: with Ben gone, use the #26 pick to draft Wayne Ellington from North Carolina. Lethal shooter (+50.0% 3P% in the tournament), Most Outstanding Player of the tournament, a solid collegiate pedigree coming off a national championship, very athletic, and a class act to boot. He developed a midrange game and learned how to create his own shots this past season, so he no longer has the stigma of strictly being an oustide shooter. While he doesn’t have Ben’s ability to get hot and single-handedly change the framework and outcome of a game, he has the potential to be much more consistent and will certainly be a better team player. And although he’s not a great defender, he’d certainly be less of a liability than BG ever was, and his ethic/attitude hints at constant improvement. A steal at #26, assuming he’s still there.
I am beginning to think
Earl Clark might be a good draft choice, if Blair and Henderson are gone. I think I’d prefer him over T. Williams. Both are physically gifted players 21 years old, but the upside of Clark is much much higher and he potentially provides depth at sf and pf.
I like him the most at PF as a pick and roll partner or to play from the high post. This is really the first time he’s fallen from the lottery and while he’s far from my favorite pick, aside from Blair and Henderson I don’t see a lot of player as sure things.
The reason I take E. Clark over T. Williams is because I am dubious about Williams ability to continue shooting as well as he did this year; his free throw shooting was 58%, that gives me concern that he’ll end up having no role in the offense, While Clark’s size and athleticism will make him formidable at both forward positions.
Chad Ford Mock Draft
If anyone has ESPN Insider and wants to copy and paste the new mock draft 3.0 onto this board that would be excellent…
by Rose Colored Goggles on Jun 2, 2009 11:10 AM CDT reply actions
NO!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
If you want to look at a mock, look at the 6 or so I have posted.
Chad Ford is poor at predicting mock drafts anyways.
Copying and pasting the information just gets SB Nation and BaB in trouble since they are hosting this fanpost.
From Poopsworld
“Mullens’ dance card is filling up fast and he may actually start turning away requests as it seems he’s going to be selected in the top 16 picks”
Dont the Bulls have pick # 16. Im sure this will get a few excited around here.
very few
he’s not a hard enough worker. And I don’t see why you want the Bulls drafting a big man that they will not even develop.
Agree
I have moved on because I agree he won’t be developed with the Bulls. It would be exciting to see a big grown with Rose. He is on people’s radar, so I thought I would post what Poops is writing about him. You know Im a Henderson/ Hansbrough guy.
Givony's observations from his work out in ...
I don’t know if Givony is just being lazy and using phrases that have already been attributed Mullens, but I don’t care to find out.
while B.J. Mullens really struggled at times against Utah’s Luke Nevill, looking disinterested in what was going on on the court, and appearing to be at least a few years away from being able to play significant minutes in the NBA. -emphasis mine
I don’t know how someone could possibly look disinterested when playing for his professional lives, so I’m almost beginning to wonder if it’s just how he “looks”. However, if he can’t even get into it in this setting, step away!!!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett
Luke Harangody at #26
Thoughts? I’ve liked him throughout his college career – in my opinion he has the best post moves in the draft, a fluid, Carlos Boozer-like arsenal, jumpshot included. And he can pass.
He put up 20 and 10 as a sophomore, 23 and 12 as a junior, but the knock on him was the same as on Hansbrough: he was too short. Except, like Hansbrough, he’s not. Harangody and Hansbrough both have an 8’10" standing reach, which is bigger than Griffin’s 8’9".
I assumed after the measurements came out he’d move up to at least high 2nd round, but he’s still not on the board. For someone who put up those numbers as a sophomore in the country’s best conference, I don’t get it, and there’s nobody at #26 who I think can produce asap for us more than him.
It IS strange how little love Harangody gets compared to Hansbrough...
Harangody measures out similarly to Hansbrough in everything but height (but he offsets that with his standing reach). And he showed to be a better rebounder and a better passer than Hansbrough in college. He’s also a pretty decent shooter and creative offensive player.
One area of notable weakness compared to Hansbrough is in his efficiency offensively. Hansbrough was a much more efficient scorer.
It seems like if you’re willing to take Hansbrough at 16, Harangody at 26 doesn’t seem like quite as much of a reach. I’d think of him as a second round guy though.
About that efficiency...
Players with a low TS% in college normally crap out in the pros, but I think Harangody’s an exception because of his ridiculous 29.9 USG%, 2nd among prospects to Stephen Curry.
But unlike Curry, Harangody was taking all those shots in the Big East, against Thabeet, Monroe, Harris, and Blair. And considering only one other player on his team had a FG% over 42%, his efficiency wasn’t that bad.
Jordan Hill should be available at #6
http://blog.newsok.com/nbainokc/2009/06/09/jordan-hills-draft-stock-slipping/
I learned from the LaMarcus Aldridge and Brook Lopez situations that if you’re 7’ tall and skilled, there’s a starting spot for you in the NBA. If we move up to Minnesota’s #6, I think I’d take Hill over any of the no-defense / no-shot guards that are the other options.
"I think it’s time to declare Hansbrough the big winner of the 2009 NBA draft combine.
He basically measured the same size as Kevin Love, Drew Gooden, Paul Millsap and David Lee.
His vertical-jump numbers weren’t terrible, either. At 34 inches, he matches up with the combine scores of Emeka Okafor, LaMarcus Aldridge and Nene. And better than Chris Bosh.
His no-step vertical was a little more troubling at just 27½ inches, but that equaled or bettered Carlos Boozer, Aldridge and Charlie Villanueva."
"I think we have to re-evaluate him," one lottery-team GM told me. "You get used to seeing a guy through a certain set of glasses. This forces you to rethink and ask yourself whether you misjudged him. I think if you need a big, you have to consider him."
I was watching the 1995 Playoffs VS the Magic's and remembered how much I hated Horace Grant. Horace Grant - i hope you burn in bball hell
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