1-year APMs for Bulls players since 2004-2005, along with their overall weighted average:
| Name | Minutes09 | APM08 | Minutes08 | APM08 | Minutes07 | APM07 | Minutes06 | APM06 | Minutes05 | APM05 | WtAvg |
| Miller | 2100.28 | -0.06 | 2512.87 | 9.11 | 1783 | 3.67 | 2923 | 11.07 | 2089 | 9.76 | 7.19 |
| Deng | 1627.15 | 1.42 | 2128.03 | 4.2 | 3072 | 5.58 | 2604 | 7.57 | 1663 | 4.29 | 4.98 |
| Noah | 1911.23 | 3.07 | 1533.68 | 4.58 | 3.74 | ||||||
| Rose | 2977.2 | 0.76 | 0.76 | ||||||||
| Gordon | 2974.18 | 2.66 | 2291.23 | -8.84 | 2704 | 3.03 | 2482 | -0.25 | 2002 | 6.83 | 0.71 |
| Timmy | 1230.2 | 3.51 | 1939.72 | -0.62 | 2054 | 2.87 | 666 | -3.86 | 1940 | -5.89 | -0.64 |
| Hinrich | 1338.48 | 7.7 | 2379.62 | -3.4 | 2840 | -0.62 | 2955 | -1.7 | 2800 | -1.7 | -0.76 |
| Tyrus | 2174.83 | -7.82 | 1330.23 | 4.97 | 966 | 0.23 | -2.28 | ||||
| Salmons | 2959.07 | -7.32 | 2517.02 | -7.31 | 2139 | -4.42 | 2059 | -5.47 | 993 | -6.65 | -6.32 |
APM numbers have flaws, mainly their variance from year to year (Gordon from -8.84 to +2.66 and Hinrich from -3.4 to +7.7 overnight), but it's probably not a fluke when a player is consistently positive or negative. Luol's doing something right, and to judge him with just box score statistics and isolation ability is leaving something out.
Luol's team-first mentality makes up for his lack of athleticism/talent
I've been working on a statistical plus minus, and when I use basic stats, my system always underrates the Dengs, Battiers, Stojakovics while overrating the Gordons, Salmons, Durants. And then I saw this article on 82games that shows the effect of a good passing in an offense. They sum it up nicely in this chart:
| Touches/Sec | Freq. | FG% | FTA/FGA | TO/FGA | PtsPoss |
| .01 to .14 | 25% | .442 | .31 | .15 | 92.8 |
| .15 to .24 | 32% | .441 | .27 | .13 | 92.9 |
| .25 to .34 | 23% | .505 | .23 | .12 | 105.6 |
| .35 to .44 | 7% | .519 | .28 | .09 | 114.1 |
| .45+ | 12% | .585 | .55 | .14 | 122.5 |
So if a possession takes 20 seconds and there are 3 touches (2 passes), that's 3/20=.15 touches/sec for an expected 92.9 offensive rating. If a possession takes 11 seconds and there are 5 touches (.454 touches/sec) the expected rating increases to 122.5.
That doesn't mean it's "pass back and forth a lot then shoot and you'll do better!" but it may mean there's a reason why players who play a team-first offense (high % of shots are assisted, decent passers, few turnovers, move well off the ball) have consistently higher than expected APMs.
Here's a look at the % of Team Field Goals Assisted when Miller, Deng, Gordon, and Salmons have been on vs. off the court in the past three seasons, along with their raw averages:
| Name | AST%09on | AST%09off | AST%08on | AST%08off | AST%08on | AST%08off | AvgDiff |
| Miller | 54.9 | 53.1 | 54 | 45 | 61 | 52 | 6.60 |
| Deng | 56 | 54 | 61 | 59 | 60 | 58 | 2.00 |
| Gordon | 54 | 59 | 59 | 62 | 58 | 62 | -4.00 |
| Salmons | 53.7 | 54 | 49 | 54 | 55 | 57 | -2.43 |
The chart leaves a lot out (who plays with who, usage rates) but it gives a general sense of how a single player can affect a team's passing. Looking at the on court vs. off court Team Offensive Ratings the past three years:
| Name | ORtgOn09 | ORtgOff09 | ORtgOn08 | ORtgOff08 | ORtgOn07 | ORtgOff07 | AvgDiff |
| Miller | 108.7 | 105.3 | 111.1 | 104.1 | 108.9 | 106.3 | 4.33 |
| Deng | 107.5 | 110.7 | 107.3 | 102.7 | 107.6 | 101.4 | 2.53 |
| Gordon | 110.2 | 106.8 | 105.5 | 104.7 | 108 | 102.2 | 3.33 |
| Salmons | 107.1 | 105.9 | 106.5 | 112 | 106.6 | 108.4 | -2.03 |
Gordon is so freakishly talented he seemingly helps the offense despite lowering its AST%. But Miller and Deng may be making up for their lack of talent and athleticism by playing team-first ball. Although it's not like Luol can't do anything on the offensive end...
Luol showed signs of his old self in 2009
I think the tendency is to look at 2009 as a lost season for Luol. It's easy to look at his overall numbers - mainly his .511 TS% and 9.0 AST% - and conclude that he didn't mesh well with Rose. But we forget that he was his old self in January before getting hurt a month later.
Here's Scotter's post reviewing that month. Deng averaged a .568 TS%, 10.5 AST% and 6.4 OREB% - numbers nearly identical to his ones in 2007 - and added a new element to his game: a 21.3 DREB% which topped Noah's and Tyrus's (think how much that would've helped in the Boston series). His raw averages from that month: 17.5ppg, 8.5rpg, 2.3apg on 50.3 FG% (at just 24 years old) remind us why Paxson gave him the big contract.
That said, I don't think Luol's worth $12 million a year. But I also don't think we're helping ourselves by trading him for an expiring contract like Camby's or Shaq's. We bought ourselves a role player for $71 million, but we bought ourselves a damn good one whose game, I think, fits well with Rose, Tyrus, and Noah going forward.


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