The final chart of the previous post estimated that the 8-man rotation coming back next year (Rose - Salmons - Deng - Tyrus - Noah - Hinrich - Timmy - Miller) would play +4.13 points better per 100 possessions than league average, assuming they 1) accounted for 90% of the team minutes next year and 2) played the exact same next year as they did this year with the Bulls.

Whew, run-on!  But those assumptions leave out a big factor: the likely improvements of Rose, Deng, Tyrus, Noah and regressions of Miller, Salmons, Hinrich, and Tim Thomas.

Below is my projection for each player next season.  I won't get too deeply into why I chose the numbers I did, except that Noah's play after January 25th this year indicates a huge season is ahead, and after a big study on Rose, I think he should be on a faster track to success than his comparable talents.  Hinrich regresses slightly after an above-average shooting year, and Salmons' numbers with the Bulls (especially TS%, AST%, and TOV%) were way out of whack from his Sacramento numbers.

You can compare the following chart to the numbers from this season.

Again, this is just my projection, but if this is anywhere near accurate, we can expect our overall talent level to boost slightly next season, from +4.13 to +5.53.  Assuming the final 10% of minutes (our deep bench) plays at -2, we're a +4.5 team, making us slightly better than the Houston Rockets this season, and projecting us at a 53-29 record.  You can expect next year's Bulls to have the best record since Jordan left.

That's awesome YaoPau, but where do we go from here?

53-29 would give us the #4 seed in the East and a likely second round exit vs. the Cavs.  And then Brad Miller's contract is up.  Salmons' expires the year after, and Hinrich the year after that.  So as good as next year's team should be, it doesn't really get us anywhere.

The core of this team though - Rose, Deng, Tyrus, Noah - could be here for the next decade.  That's four of the league's top players 24 years old or younger, and we've got 'em!  Contrary to some opinions on this board, I don't see Deng or Tyrus getting much better from here, maybe a +2.5/+3 at their max, mainly because I haven't seen them improve much over the last two years.  Rose and Noah can both be +5 players, possibly higher.  Regardless of whether those vague projections come true, I think we can safely assume those four will combine for at least +8 while averaging 30+ mpg between them within a few years.  Meaning if we can start assembling a group of +0, +1, +2, even -1 players around them, we'll be a Rockets-esque, Pistons-esque contender for awhile.  Basically, add Miller/Hinrich/Salmons type players who will be around when our young talent develops.

Our two main needs are 1) a SG who can defend bigger guards, knock down the 3, and pass well, and 2) a PF who can defend 1-on-1 in the post and rebound defensively.  Obviously if we can land a Wade (about a +12 APM) or Bosh (about a +6 APM), that's huge, but realistically we should have another plan. 

Here's a list of unheralded players who fill needs with neutral or positive minutes:

1) DaJuan Blair - Boston exploited our defensive rebounding weaknesses, and Blair should be an improvement over Tyrus and Noah in that department right away.  He should also be the defensive 1-on-1 stopper in the post that Tyrus is not.  (I projected Blair at +3 to +5 defensively after studying undersized big men.)  And he can score a bit too.  He's my first choice at the #15 pick, and I'd even consider trading up to get him.

2) Terrence Williams - A 6'6" SG stud defender who can guard 3 positions.  But what makes him special are his 5.0 assists per game as a senior.  His crappy TS% indicates he'll barely score in the NBA, but he worked on his 3pt shooting enough (from 26.1% as a sophomore to 38.5% as a senior) that I think he can become a better passing Raja Bell for us, and somebody who'd fit nicely alongside Rose.  If Blair's gone, he's my pick.

3) Rashad McCants - Restricted Free Agent.  He's an undersized SG (6'3.75" in shoes) who had a terrible year in 2009.  But he was so good as a 23 year old in 2008 (+3.43 offensive APM, +1.56 defensive APM, 40.7 3PT%) that I think he can be a huge payoff for little risk.

4) Luther Head - Unrestricted Free Agent.  The second option if we can't get McCants, Head barely played this season but put up a +0.23 APM season in 2008 (+0.60 defensive).  Combine that with a career 39.2 3PT% and 18.1 AST% this year, and he's a good fit at backup SG that we can get for next to nothing.

5) Shelden Williams - Restricted Free Agent.  The #5 pick a few years back, he's barely seen the floor despite putting up solid numbers.  He posted a +0.87 APM in 2008 (+2.74 defensive) and his career 23.3 DREB% would've led our team this year.  If we don't land Blair, acquiring Shelden (giving up our second 1st?) makes sense to me.

6) Sean May - Restricted Free Agent.  He had microfracture surgery two years ago and has barely played since.  But he put up a +1.50 EOPM, 23.3 DREB% and a 14.5 AST% in 2007, albeit with mediocre defense.  Charlotte may be willing to trade him for cheap, and he's another low-risk worth taking.

In the 2010 offseason, there are some other, cheaper free agents that fit, including Joe Johnson, Darius Songaila, Chuck Hayes, and Carl Landry.

Analyzing the Plan

Let's say we get DaJuan Blair, Rashad McCants, and Luther Head ... unload Hinrich for cap space ... and re-sign Tyrus to an extension for $10 mil per.  That would put our payroll in the 2010 offseason at around $42 million, meaning we'd have the money to bring in a Wade, Bosh, or Joe Johnson. 

But even if we don't land one of the big fish, we'd still be a 55 win team with the cap room to get a quality secondary free agent or trade for a bigger name in a salary dump situation.  That's what I love about this plan: it relies on talent we already have, and sets us up for immediate and long-term success without compromising future acquisitions.