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Chicago Bulls Off Season Part 1

If you’re anything like me as soon as the Bulls were eliminated you began to look towards next year. Will the playoff run of ’09 lead to bigger and better things or be more like the last playoff run that led to a disappointing follow up season.

Like that last run, the Bulls again will go into the off-season with the status of Ben Gordon up in the air, there are also questions surrounding Luol Deng, and there will be trade rumors hovering over the Bulls all summer. Will this group stay mentally strong and go into the new season, regardless of who stays or goes, and be ready to play basketball?

Star-divide

Looking to the roster for the ’09 - ’10 season, expect some changes, but one thing seems perfectly clear;

Derrick Rose is the franchise. His humility shines as bright as his talent, his work ethic is unmatched, and he’s growing as a leader. It’s easy to pick on his defense and his jump shot, but as someone that watched the majority of his games as a Bull, there was improvement in these areas. He has a pretty jumper, so extending it to the 3 point arc will just take repetitions this summer and his mid range J was shot with confidence most of the year. He has the strength, quickness, and willingness to be a better defender, and his on the ball defense did improve as the year went on. I’d like to see him improve in his help side D (like Rajon Rondo and Chris Paul) so he can pick up some cheap steals. He may always be a pass first lead guard, but depending on the roster shakedown, he may become more aggressive by default.

I’ve wavered more on Ben Gordon the last couple years than any other player. He should go, he should stay, he should start, he should be the 6th man… I think I’m finally ready for a decisive conclusion on Ben… OK maybe not… I don’t think he’ll get the big long term deal he’s seeking. I don’t even thing he’ll get a deal close to what the Bulls offered before. I think most GM’s see him as a scorer off the bench and a liability on defense, but a clutch shooter who is willing and confident enough to take the last shot. With the pending 2010 class of Free Agents, most teams will stay away from offering him a deal. The Pistons and Thunder are rumored to be the most interested, but both envision him as a 6th man, and neither is a better team than the Bulls at this point. I think Ben will weigh his options and if the money is similar he’ll stay in Chicago, which could spell doom for Kirk Hinrich.

The deal that Kirk signed a few years ago was a good deal for a starting point guard, but with the lucky bounce of the ping pong balls Kirk was regulated to the bench. Kirk could start at PG for some teams around the league (Minnesota and Portland have interest), and after his solid season his trade value may not be higher, but I hope the Bulls find a way to keep him. If Ben is resigned I’d put it at 75% Kirk is moved, if Ben is allowed to walk I’d still call it 50/50. Kirk can defend 3 positions, he can stretch the defense with his range, and he takes pressure off Rose of being the primary ball handler. The Bulls plans for the ’10 FA class could go a long way in determining the future of Kirk and Ben, rumors of Dwyane Wade won’t go away.

John Salmons was brought in partly as insurance in case Gordon leaves. He could be slid to the 2 (even though I like him better at the 3), he’ll get you the 15-20 points per night that Ben got, but he’ll defend better. The ball also stops with him as it does with Ben, but overall Salmons takes fewer shots out of the context of the offense. Salmons 2008-09 numbers with Sacramento are eerily similar to his 26 games as a Bull, his assists dropped slightly, but overall his consistency kept up all through the playoff as well. If Ben is brought back the idea of Salmons starting with Gordon taking on the “microwave” role off the bench should be explored.

Why Luol Deng had such a hard time adjusting his game to Derrick Rose makes no sense to me. Deng is a slasher and a mid range jump shooter, two traits that should mesh with Rose’s game. Play some two man games with Deng and Rose, pick and roll, pick and pop, but the key is (as usual) Deng’s health. Bulls fans should get any thoughts of trading Deng out of their head until after the 2010-11 season at the earliest. It ain’t gonna happen. I’ve always thought Deng played better when he’s aggressively hitting the glass, and at 6’9” I’d like to see him bulk up a bit to play the 4 more. His days of the occasional time at guard should be over, but swinging between the 3 and 4 would allow Vinny Del Negro (yes I think VDN will return) to take advantage of some match-ups.

Lindsey Hunter was a very good teammate and a great mentor for Derrick Rose, but he’s as old as me. He might retire. If he does come back he’ll be a 12th man, however I could see him being added to the coaching staff, as he was a dé facto assistant coach anyway.

Anthony Roberson has a year a year left on his contract, so his return is a possibility. I see a little Janero Pargo in his game. If he puts in the work he could be add a jolt to the bench next year.

DeMarcus Nelson was a late season pick up that never got in a game. He’s a quick athletic shooting guard (from Duke) with a 6’10” wingspan and he’ll defend. The Bulls are high on him and look forward to seeing his game improve this summer. He’ll be around and might surprise.

I’ll look at the rest of the roster on my next Bulls post.

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Nelson is a PG not a shooting guard. Mainly what we need is a big backup center who isn’t totally snail-paced and a beefier PF who can hit the boards hard and play physical D for 20 minutes a game. Also a backup SF

by C Smoove on May 11, 2009 9:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

also the kirk hinrich insurance

if they do plan to move kirk, he might be the guy who can take hinrichs duties.

The organization, say what you want about them, made some nice moves i thought. Salmons is ben gordons insurance, and nelson is hinrichs. I think salmons now has made a point of also being a luol deng insurance piece, but i dont think they organization really sees the deng thing as bad as it looked this year.

On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!

by piccolomair on May 11, 2009 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

as the Bulls are currently constructed, Nelson is a 2, and I’ll hit on the bigs next time out

by wiltfongjr on May 12, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty sure

he played SG at Duke. He’s more of a combo guard, can’t really play the point (yet, at least), but too short for SG (actually, with his defensive prowess and wingspan, he could definitely defend SG’s or maybe even SF’s). He’s a really interesting player. Great defense and athleticism, but doesn’t have a true position b/c he’s 6’2.

I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad

Good ol' KO

by thecoolest on May 12, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

deng had such a hard time

because if you haven’t noticed, the bulls don’t actually run an offense.

"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"

by Jaina on May 11, 2009 9:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like your analysis of each player,

especially your positional knowledge (i.e. you know that Salmons is a 3 and that Deng is not a 2). This post is very similar to the first series I posted on my other blog (and I’m sorry I’ve been promoting it so much lately), where I analyzed the guards, forwards, and centers and predicted their roles for next season.

by T-Boogie on May 11, 2009 11:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Isn't that setting the bar a little low?

I don’t wanna be too negative, but one really shouldn’t be commenting on this blog if they don’t know a player’s position… Positional knowledge? Come on, have you noticed the constant flow of stats on this site?

by jmogs on May 11, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe you've failed to notice,

but the idea of Salmons and Deng as 2’s is quite common, both within this blogging community and the NBA community as a whole. I’m not saying this article enlightened me to anything I didn’t already know, but it’s nice to hear my thoughts reiterated. That’s also not the only reason I liked this post, even though it reflected my own feelings (and my exact posts from prior articles on Bull Riding).

I would like to think I know where each player belongs on the court, and seeing that someone else explicitly supports my views was appreciated. As for stats, they only tell part of the picture. I’m sure anyone can provide an argument based on stats that another observer could shoot down with logic.

by T-Boogie on May 12, 2009 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

T-Boogie – I checked out your series, good stuff, we are on the same page in a lot of areas

by wiltfongjr on May 12, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Glad you liked it.

by T-Boogie on May 13, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

why do you like salmons as a 3?

he held his own there, but why not stick him at a position where his size creates mismatches for the bulls, as opposed to sticking him at a position where it creates mismatches for our opponents? i’m not saying he can’t play the 3 from time to time throughout a game, but i like the idea of him guarding some of the massive 2 guards in this league. also, i could be wrong about this, but i’m pretty sure i’ve read that salmons much prefers playing 2, feels more comfortable there, and feels more effective there.

by amory blaine on May 12, 2009 1:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That's great,

but it doesn’t mean he’s more effective there. Tyrus Thomas wants to play the 3, too, but that doesn’t mean we play him there. Look at Salmons’ production by position according to 82games.com:
http://www.82games.com/0809/08SAC7.HTM
It would seem also from anecdotal observation that he would have a tough time against SG’s, because he’s slower than them. It’ll be a lot harder for him to do fake/fake/baseline drive against an SG than it is to do it against an SF.

"Ben Gordon is a bundle of muscle and clutch. That's all he's made of. Drink BG7 energy drink, you'll grow a pair of balls on your balls."

by Prevenge on May 12, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

to reply to you

and amory’s response below, i think he’s a great combo to have, because he can give size at the 2 and play there, and also matches up fine with most 3s. but yeah, his stats do indicate he fairs a little better at the 3 spot.

"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"

by Jaina on May 12, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If was at the three

then Martin was at the two, and seeing as the Kings didn’t have much firepower otherwise, I can’t imagine that not having a large effect.

by McCabe on May 12, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That link shows that his production at SG and SF was basically the same.

There’s no statistical evidence that he plays better at SF. The only significant difference was his counterpart PER at SG and SF, and that isn’t a very reliable stat. In the two seasons before this one Salmons had a higher PER and a better counterpart PER at SG.

by Scotter on May 12, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't know that counterpart PER is unreliable.

Is it just because it varies so much team-to-team [or game-to-game]?

"Ben Gordon is a bundle of muscle and clutch. That's all he's made of. Drink BG7 energy drink, you'll grow a pair of balls on your balls."

by Prevenge on May 12, 2009 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

it may also be

that just because someone is playing SG, are they always guarding the other opponent’s SG? think gordon and hinrich. are they taking the PER of the PG playing or the SG hinrich is actually guarding?

i could see where it would be a hugely complicated process to make sure it’s accurate.

"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"

by Jaina on May 12, 2009 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a product of a basic computer program.

82games ranks every player on each NBA roster from most point guard to most center. For the counterpart PER the most point guard player on the floor is cross matched with the most point guard player on the opposing team, and so on. So there’s no guarantee that Salmon’s counterpart PER reflects the guys he actually guarded, especially with a team like Sacramento that had similar players in Garcia, Martin, and Salmons.

In addition defense can fluctuate pretty widely. Defensive system, and the play of the other 4 players on the court can dramatically impact counterpart PER. For example at the beginning of the season Gordon and Rose had a great counterpart PERs, but those PERs were the result of a lack of ability to control dribble penetration, not good defense by Gordon and Rose.

I think counterpart PER can be useful, but it’s not a number that can be used without knowing the context. I didn’t watch many Kings games so I can’t determine who Salmons was guarding, but I can look at previous seasons. Salmon’s counterpart PER at SG for Sac in 08/09 doesn’t fit with his past history, and probably doesn’t reflect his actual effectiveness at SG

by Scotter on May 12, 2009 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

fair points

right, you would have to adjust based on certain matchups, but i think salmons could stick with most shooting guards. perhaps he’s most useful as a guy who can play both competently, and maybe it’s just too many years of gordon, but i relish the thought of size at the 2, even if it can be overrated, and even if it comes at the expense of some quickness.

by amory blaine on May 12, 2009 2:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Deng

A lot of people sort of forget, but he is actually a really good rebounder for a small forward. I dont ahve any statistical analysis showing percentages or wahtever but a line up of BG, D Rose and Salmons puts a lot of pressure on tyrus/noah/miller to rebound.

by Sambossanova on May 12, 2009 5:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Salmons should be at the 2. He is giving up size as a 3 and he is a below average rebounder. Your SF should be getting at least 7 boards. Deng can provide 8. And has prototypical SF size.

by C Smoove on May 12, 2009 11:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

7 boards?

The only small forwards in the NBA that are averaging more than 7 boards is Gerald Wallace at 7.8 and LeBron James at 7.6.

for comparisions sake here are what some 3’s in the NBA board per game;

Carmello Anthony – 6.8
Richard Jefferson – 4.6
Shane Battier – 4.8
Rudy Gay – 5.5
Tayshaun Prince – 5.8
Ron Artest – 5.2
Hedo Turkoglu – 5.3

Salmons gets 4.3, but if your 4 and 5 are cleaning the glass you can live with his 4-5 boards.

Either way I’m just glad Salmons is versitle enough to play both.

by wiltfongjr on May 14, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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