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DraftWatch 2009 - Take 3

College basketball has finished another season w/ the pre-season's favorite to win it running away w/ the title, so here's another draft diary.

Jamaicanpi has already gathered links to mock drafts, scouting reports, statistical analysis of pasts draft and lessons learned and other misc. stuff. If you're interested, I suggest you go there for some fun links.

Star-divide

The Bulls pick will likely be 15th/16th and 26th (the worse of Denver and SA (thanks Jaina) and Denver has a nice pad on both sides especially w/ this news. - YIKES!). So, with Paxson's scouting done for the year (the Final Four being over now), how about we make some predictions? I still can't see a player from any of the four teams other than Hasheem Thabeet (who will go Top-10 at the least) and Ty Lawson (who, um, plays a position the Bulls have filled) that will be around the 15th pick.

I think (and have thought for quite some time) what most of think in that Gordon will be gone. I think the Bulls need to draft either a wing or a good-shooting SG and a PF/C that is either a definite scoring machine or is good at defending & rebounding.

So, as always, what do you think they need and who do you think they'll take?

(oh, and make sure you recommend this so we have it up there)

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Oops! Did I publish this a little prematurely?

My list of maybe, hopefully for the first pick goes:

Gerald Henderson, Cole Aldrich, DeJuan Blair, Chase Budinger, Wayne Ellington (depending on how his quickness and measurements come out)

I want someone polished that I am certain is going to produce—low-ceiling, high-floor—and I’m not too worried about exact need or position

For the second pick, I’d probably go:

DeJuan Blair, Chase Budinger, Wayne Ellington, Terrance Williams, Danny Green

The second pick, I take a SG or wing, no matter who I took the first time. Again, I’m operating on the assumption that Gordon is gone. I think the PF’s and C’s in the lower part of the draft are way too raw and the Bulls have too much raw big men as it is. Trade it for something if they don’t like anyone there. Maybe, maybe, maaaaaaybe Hansbrough w/ the second pick if they’ve already got Henderson, Budinger or Ellington. I pick those latter two over Williams and Green because I’m personally more confident in their offensive games translating to the NBA than I am the latter two’s defensive games.

Anywhoooooo….

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 6, 2009 9:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Terrance Williams and DeJuan Blair are two guys I'd definitely target

Blair is that beef we clearly need on the inside. He’s obviously undersized height-wise, but he knows how to use his body with the best of ‘em. I think he’s potentially the Millsap, banger-type that this Bulls team could use since all of our bigs are relatively slender. I love the way Blair competes and his attitude is great on the court. He’s be a great pick in the mid first-round.

Williams is a guy who plays great defense, can guard both 2s and 3s, has great court vision, is uber-athletic, and plays with that fiery passion that we know our man Pax loves. His shot seems to be steadily improving over the last few years as well. I think he would be a very solid rotation player who could come off bench and play on the wing for us. His game also fits well with Rose since he can get up and down the floor and is a great finisher in transition.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 6, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also,

the more I watch Ellington, the more I like him. He could be a great fit next to Rose: decent size, killer outside jumper, great moving off the ball, and seems to play some solid defense (plus, he’s a winner!!!!!!). Like you said, though, I want to see how his measurements and all that jazz come out before I can form a real opinion.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 6, 2009 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ellington's defense is a weak spot for him, according to everything I've read on / seen of him.

 His shooting stroke, though, is great and he does move off the ball very, very well. His size could be a bit better, I think he’s just 6’4", but he’s super smooth. I don’t know how good he’ll be, but he seems as good a pick as any in the late first round.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 6, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DeJuan Blair

He’ll be able to contribute now. This is a very weak draft but I still see him as one of the most productive rookies in this class. At the very least he’ll be better than the OTHER Pittsburgh alumni we currently pay…

Also like Greg Monroe but I can’t remember if he’ll be in this draft class or the next one. Might be for the best as we can’t develop big men anyway…

by Alighieri on Apr 6, 2009 10:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

DeJuan Blair should be the pick at 15. He won't be available at 25/26

and he’s going to be one of the best players in this whole weak ass draft.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 6, 2009 10:47 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Agree with this. I'd take him in that spot as well.

Then take Ellington or T. Williams with the next pick.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 6, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be happy if that was what we came out of the draft with. Of course, they could deal the picks

in a package for Bosh and that would also make me happy. There are a number of ways they could go.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 6, 2009 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

Unless Aldrich or Henderson are available. Which neither will be.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't like Blair

I don’t think a 6’6" forward is the answer chicago is looking for. Tyreke Evans (also 6’6") I think could play nicely with Rose if he falls out of the top ten and could automatically fill in for BG. Odds are that Slamons will move to the 2 and we’re looking at a rose-salmons-deng-ty-noah starting 5 to start next season with hinrich and miller as our only two contributing bench players. Terrance Williams makes a lot of sense with the 2nd first round pick. Mullens could be a steal if his stock continues to drop. Also like Dionte Christmas in the 2nd round.

by oakdale on Apr 6, 2009 11:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Evans can't shoot at all

and doesn’t move well without the ball at all either. He’s talented but he’s a ball-stopper with no real position in the league

My greatest enemy is my inner me

by TheCool1 on Apr 6, 2009 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

your dislike of Blair and immediate reference of his height makes me think that you've never watched him play

and that you’re also probably a card carrying member of the “Gordon sucks because he’s short” club.

Blair can PLAY. The dude is a monster on the boards and is going to be a real player in the NBA. If you like Paul Millsap or would be happy if the Bulls signed him in the offseason, then you should be thrilled with Blair because he’s a Millsap clone and he’ll likely be about a 1/3rd of the price.

Tyreke Evans is a PG. Again, I don’t think you’ve watched him play. He needs the ball to be successful. He would NOT be a good fit with Rose.

Finally, Dionte Christmas in the 2nd round can’t happen, because we don’t have a 2nd round pick.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 6, 2009 11:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen plenty Memphis games with Evans

He’s talented. They put him at PG; that doesnt make him a PG. You’re right, he needs the ball to be successful. That was my point.

My greatest enemy is my inner me

by TheCool1 on Apr 7, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was responding to oakdale, not you, but we more or less agree. Evans will be a combo guard in the NBA.

Because he’s such a ball dominator, I suspect someone will draft him to be a PG, but who knows. Right now, he’s been a PG all year and the first few games when he played at SG, he and Memphis sucked.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops

my bad

My greatest enemy is my inner me

by TheCool1 on Apr 7, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the reason I don't like Blair

is that he is undersized, overweight, slow, and reminds me of michael sweetney. Rose is successful when he can run. Having him on the floor with Blair will not help. For the players the Bulls have on the team given the choice, I would take Mullens over Blair. Blair would seem to be filling the same role as Noah on the team as the rebounder/hustle guy that isn’t expected to score.

by oakdale on Apr 7, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Evans struggled the first 6 games of the year until they moved him to PG.

Bulls don’t have a 2nd round pick.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The one thing I don't like

about evans is how his regular jumpshot is a fadeaway.

"Worker bees can leave.
Even drones can fly away.
The Queen is their slave."

by jpchi on Apr 7, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Id take Budinger

but I hate UA…so Im going with Jeff Pendergraph..he could be a sleeper

..on 2/18/09, Noc was gone..and on the next day, Larry "The Chucker" was just a bad dream...

by Belize on Apr 6, 2009 11:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wondering if anyone can clue me in on a couple of players

DX has the Bulls taking 2 tweeners (Sam Young, and James Johnson), NBADraft.net has them taking Patrick Patterson, then Terrence Williams. I know Williams is liked, what about Young and Patterson?

I know a lot of people love Blair, but I wonder how effective he could be. He’ll probably be a great rebounder, but I was unimpressed defensively, lacks quickness. Post moves will be harder to come by against NBA talent as well. I’d love him a lot more if he lost maybe 10 pounds, and showcased some sort of lateral quickness in the pre-draft camps.

Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.

by Ozzie Montana on Apr 6, 2009 11:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't worry who those sites have them taking.

They basically list the players in order of how good they think they are (or will be, etc.) and then put the teams next to them in reverse order of standings. I don’t think DX looks at what individual teams should do until sometime in June.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Sam Young will be 24 years old by the draft

He was nearly 22 by the end of his sophomore season yet only averaged 7.2ppg. I’d stay away.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's Exactly Why He Should Be Attractive to the Bulls...

We are already the youngest team in the league, I don’t want to add another 19 y.o. kid. In this draft we need to add some guys who will make up the core of the bench of the Championship contender we hope to be building. We also have to keep in mind that we may have to replace some pieces that are sent for a 2010 FA.

Lineup (If we lose Gordon):
PG – Rose Hinrich
SG – Salmons Hinrich
SF – Deng Tim Thomas
PF – Ty Thomas Tim Thomas
C – Noah Miller

Young is a beast. You drop him a notch because he only averaged 7 his soph. year, in my eyes that worthy of praise. Means he worked his ass off on his game during the last 2 summers. Let’s not also forget that they had a pretty good team that year too, that was Aaron Gray’s senior year. I guess you didn’t see any Pitt games during the Tourney, because he was the one that carried that squad. His j is improving and is better than Deng’s coming out, he’s a freakish athlete, and he D’s up.

I’d love to see us get Young or Terrance Williams with that late 1st round pick, to fill that back up 2/3 spot.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 7, 2009 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's attractive to the Bulls because he averaged 7ppg as a 22 year old?

Top prospects in recent drafts have mostly been freshmans or sophomores, meaning these players were dominating college basketball as 19 and 20 year olds. Sam Young wasn’t dominant until he was 23, that’s a huge gap – think about how much better NBA players get between the ages of 19 and 23.

I have nothing against seniors. Brandon Roy and Danny Granger have been great in the NBA. But the difference is they were damn good as 20 year old sophomores too, and they just decided to stay the extra two years. Sam Young wasn’t damn good until the best players on most teams were 2-3 years young than him.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

R U Serious?...

First of all, if you last until the last part of the 1st round, I wouldn’t call that a top prospect.

Secondly, why does it matter when u dominate as long as u dominate. I’ve seen just as many 19 and 20 year olds, who so called dominated in college come into the pros and do nothing. As I have upperclassmen. William Avery, Kris Humphries, Dajuan Wagner, and Eddie Griffin; you remember any of these names? Probably not. All part of your so called “top prospects” that came out at about 19 or 20.

Lastly, we don’t need anymore potential, we need guys who can step in and contribute. We have our “potential guys” in D. Rose, Tyrus, and Noah. Adding more to the mix just slows down the process.

He’s attractive to the Bulls, because he immediately fills a hole we would have. He may not turn in to a superstar, but we don’t need a superstar. And he shows the work ethic to keep getting better. He wasn’t a top prospect coming out of HS, he mainly played in the post. He has turned himself into a prospect. Ur down on him because he’s already 24, well men don’t reach their prime til what 27? Meaning he has less time to reach his, and meaning it’s more of a possibility that he’s still on the team when he reaches it. Instead of picking a kid who’s 20 and never quite develops, only to see him roll in 4 years, to turn into a monster.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 7, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It matters when you dominate because people become physically more imposing

when they are 23 or 24 versus when they are 19. So it means that if you’re 23 dominating a group of primarily 19 or 20 year olds, it’s much less impressive than if you’re dominating those in your own age group or maturity level. Once you make the leap to the pros, that difference in maturity is eliminated and you’re shown to be a fraud in terms of college dominance, whereas if you dominated among your age group, then chances are you when you mature into a 23 or 24 year old pro, you’ll fit in amongst those pros.

Try this thought experiment out. If you were a high school senior playing on the freshman basketball team and dominated, people would discount that performance, right? Well, that’s essentially what Sam Young has done. He’s older and more physically mature / imposing than the kids he’s playing against, so of course he dominates. Once he goes to the pros, though, that advantage disappears. That’s why it matters.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Couple of points
I’ve seen just as many 19 and 20 year olds, who so called dominated in college come into the pros and do nothing. William Avery, Kris Humphries, Dajuan Wagner, and Eddie Griffin; you remember any of these names?

It’s interesting you pointed out those names – they really weren’t that dominant in college. Check out this article.

Lastly, we don’t need anymore potential, we need guys who can step in and contribute.

I basically agree with that. But I don’t think Sam Young comes in and contributes. Fundamentallysound is right on, Sam Young is a grown man that you’re comparing to similarly dominant teenagers. Add in that he doesn’t get assists, or blocks, or steals, he doesn’t get to the line a lot, and he turns the ball over too often, and I don’t see a whole lot there to like even if he were 22.

We have our "potential guys" in D. Rose, Tyrus, and Noah … [Young] may not turn in to a superstar, but we don’t need a superstar.

We don’t? I don’t see Rose, Tyrus, Noah developing into Parker, Ginobili, Duncan – I think we need another impact player. And while I don’t expect one with the 26th pick, I don’t agree that we should limit ourselves to only drafting NBA-ready players.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could you compare PPA of:

Henderson
Harden
DeRozan
Budinger
Ellington
Green

How do you get that?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I ask because DX's Pts/Pos are slightly higher than what you...

…have for Clark and Evans (but on for Williams…).

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DX calculates pts/pos differently from some other sites

e.g. basketball reference. I think I tried figuring out how they did it and thought this equation fir pretty well:
pts/(FTA*.44+FGA+TO-OReb), or something of that nature essentially like TS%*2 except add Turn overs and subtract OReb. I don’t have the information in front of me at the moment.

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 7, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well your explanation of it would certainly make sense

because the denominator you’ve outlined is the simple formula for possessions.

I think the confusion came from YaoPau using PPA (points per attempt) whereas Tyger was looking at PPP (points per possession) which are two entirely different things. One measures shooting efficiency, and the other measures overall efficiency (very roughly).

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly.

And I’d be interested in the PPA for those guys.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DX has it listed as TS%

on each player’s page. The reason the numbers are a tad off is probably because I wrote the article a couple weeks back.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting idea.

Now that we’re seeing the “undersized big man” succeed and it might have been analyzed to death, what about exploring the non-athletic scorers who succeed, like Michael Redd.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm open to any suggestions

I’ve tried the Redd/Arenas thing before though, and I don’t have the slightest clue how they’re as good as they are – I’m chalking it up to ridiculous work ethic.

Redd was an inefficient shooter in college, yet he’s one of the most efficient high-octane scorers in the NBA now. Arenas was just one piece of a good Arizona team, nothing about his game suggested he’d be a 6apg, 10 ftapg player.

If you’ve got any ideas as to why they’ve succeeded (that Arenas and Jefferson were on the same team might have something to do with it), I’d be happy to see how it checks out over the past 20 years.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously the NBA scouts also missed on why Arenas

and Redd would be as good as they are.

Maybe we can?

by Granny Waiters on Apr 9, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, yeah,

but maybe someone has secret tech?

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 11, 2009 2:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We have a guy on our team that will make your case.

Salmons.

"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."

- fundamentallysound

by J Theory on Apr 8, 2009 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And if they do,

Regression to the mean will be a cold bitch.

Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.

by Ozzie Montana on Apr 8, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I too would love to see Young with the Bulls

He is a great athlete and a fierce competitor. I do not agree with the idea that because he is older that he will not be able to dominate in the same manner at the next leve. http://proxy.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney09/news/story?id=4015385

by careyrd on Apr 10, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not "not able"

just less likely to do so

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 10, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking the same thing regarding Sam Young

I think he is going to be a solid player and we could use someone like him coming off the bench. I wouldn’t be too concerned about his age. Sometimes some players blossom later in there career or take it to a different level when they reach the pros.

"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."

- fundamentallysound

by J Theory on Apr 7, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scouting Young as an NBA SF

Does well
1. He can shoot the corner 3.
2. Rebound a little avg. 6.3 a game.
Does OK.
1. He can post up pretty well.
2. Finishes at the rim strong.
Poor-
1. He’s slow so his perimeter defending isn’t great.
2. Not great attacking off the dribble…( see Deng)

I want to stress the point that the Bulls need their SF to shoot the corner three because with Rose and PF? running pick and roll, the rotation or help defense always leaves the corner 3 open. Salmons can hit. If Salmons moves to the 2 guard I think Young would be a great 3 splitting mins with when Deng comes back sometime.

FInal thought- Yes hes old but I think the Bulls want a polished player to contribute right away with less upside more than another project that will take 2 years.

by Jscho316 on Apr 7, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It will be interesting to see what kind of a defender Young ends up being.

I know you say that he lacks quickness and therefore may lack in perimeter defense, and nbadraft.net seems to agree, ranking him 7 out of 10 in quickness. But then that site goes on to say:

His combination of size, length and athleticism allow him to lock down players from a variety of positions

so it’s not entirely clear what kind of a defender he’ll be.

If it’s true that he can hang his hat on his defense, that’s one of the things Pax typically falls in love with.

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

He has the greatest pump fake ever! I would love him on the Bulls simply to watch other teams constantly jumping out of their socks in trying to get that pump fake.

by careyrd on Apr 10, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blair is a beast...

First, height does not matter that much…look at the true height article. Ben Wallace is only 6’7 and he can play with the bigs, why can’t Blair? He’s incredibly athletic and would be a great rotation player with the bigs the Bulls already have.

Too many projects in this draft. Take the highest floor available so we can add some productive players now.

Or just ship players/picks off to Toronto for Bosh.

by DRose01 on Apr 7, 2009 6:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Thing About Blair...

Is his arms

He may only be about 6’7 or 6’8, but I bet his wingspan is 7’ something. Watch when he’s down low, he works the big body into position and then all u see is arms going up for the board. As long as he can stay in shape, he’ll be very productive in the league. He’s a leader, plays with passion, and has some low post moves.

I’m praying we can get Blair and either Williams or Young

by Ceasaleo on Apr 7, 2009 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And he's got ginormous hands.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Danny Green's measurements-2008

  Danny Green took some measurements last year and was surprisingly average or below. We have height, weight, wingspan, and standing reach. He had an average wingspan for someone 6’6" and below average standing reach. There is often plenty of error in the measurements that’s hard to parse out without seeing leaping ability (when an unathletic player wants to seem more athletic, they can stretch out less for standing reach and more when they jump; it can also be due to health, see Noah). This impresses me because I am amazed at how good of a shot blocker he is, but his lack of length means his defense may not translate. From my rough estimates, his length is more typical of a player 6’4".

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 7, 2009 7:24 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice find

His wingspan is impressive though… 6’10" and he measured 6’4.5"? There aren’t many SG/SFs with more than a 5.5" difference.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does standing reach matter for a guard?

How many blocks shots do guards average per 36? .7?

Just speculating, but I’d think wingspan would make a bigger difference. Trenton Hassell measured 6’4.25" with a 8’3.5" standing reach (compared to Green’s 8’4.5") and Hassell’s done fine defensively.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It matters for everyone, doesn't it?

damn, and “complexing” should have been “perplexing,” of course.

a) standing reach is about more than just blocks, right?

b) I think Hassell was more athletic than what Green will be (the draft camps should refute or confirm this) and his wingspan was 2" shorter, making the shorting standing reach understandable

c) I’m not sure I’d consider Hassell at all “fine” on defense. He’s consistently had a worse DRtg than what his team has had.

d) I think case-in-points are not that illuminating

e) if I’m drafting Danny Green, it’s for defense so I’d want more than “fine” defensively.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting about Hassell

He’s always had a reputation of being a defensive specialist, but I guess the numbers don’t back that up. I’m trying to think of why standing reach would matter for a shooting guard though. How often is Ben Gordon standing with his hands straight up?

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The higher your hand goes the higher they have to shoot over you?

Dramatically altering the arc of the shot making it more out of one’s routine, creating a longer flight path, thus a longer distance and more room for error in missing the target, etc.

I would think this would make intuitive sense. Is it not harder to shoot over someone who can reach 9’ high than someone who can only reach 7’ high, all else being equal? Am I the one missing something here?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, you're correct, and I think it's the primary reason why Ben

struggles defensively. I’ve long been down on the argument that Ben sucks on defense because he’s short, because it’s lazy analysis, and because you can be a shitty defender without being short, and there are plenty of worse defenders than Ben who are bigger than him. However, I think Ben’s ceiling as a defender is limited because of how short he is. For instance, Ben is a better defender than Michael Redd, but that’s because he works way harder on that end than Michael Redd. If Michael Redd tried as hard as Ben on defense, he would almost certainly be better than Ben by virtue of his being bigger and thus more likely to alter his opponent’s shot or offensive repertoire.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

1) when you look at ben's drtgs it begins

to appear as though most of the time it is foolish to even talk about individual defensive ability since this is mostly contingent on what team you play for. do you agree with this at all?
2) if what tyger says above is true (and it makes sense that it would be), do you think there would be any benefit in treating ben like iverson in the sense that he plays shooting guard but defends point guards. i know rose isnt a great defender but he has good size and strength and, since he often has a hard time keeping guys in front of him, perhaps guarding slower, bigger players will do him some good?

by TheMoon on Apr 7, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

1) well no not entirely because Ben's still viewed as a defensive liability

even when we look at adjusted plus minus and statistical plus minus and those are independent of teammate effects – at least adjusted is and stat plus minus is supposed to be an estimate of adjusted. Ben’s always graded out as a defensive liability by adjusted so it’s a pretty good bet that he is.

2) As to this point, yes I think it makes sense to put Ben on opposing PGs. I think that’s why the Bulls were so successful defensively for a while because Hinrich could handle most opposing teams’ 2 guards about as well as you could expect a real two guard to do it and Ben wasn’t quite so terrible defending PGs as opposed to 2-guards. However, the fact that Derrick is a pretty frickin’ terrible defender himself creates some problems. It’s really tough to play Ben and Derrick as your backcourt for the majority of the minutes because Ben is a very limited defender and Derrick is abysmal on that end. They are both good offensive players, but Derrick’s not good enough yet offensively that his bad defense is completely offset and Ben has almost never been good enough to offset his bad defense with his offense. He’s getting close this year. That’s why I’m becoming less and less worried about losing Ben, because as much as it will hurt us offensively, the Bulls need someone that can play defense next to Derrick, at least until Derrick learns how to play defense himself.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well right, if Danny Green had 4' long arms, then that would increase his draft stock

But how many times is Ben Gordon even close to blocking a shot? If you’re a PF or C, you’re likely to stand tall with your arms up whenever you’re defending in the paint. But a SG?

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just as often.

Seriously. Maybe not straight up, but at a 75* angle. Watch tonight. I think you’d notice something.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wayne Ellington's measurements are also listed for 2008

  He had a fairly average sprint, the lane agility test, that I think is supposed to be a proxy for defensive potential, he did terrible in. His reach was above average (about what you’d expect from someone 6’6"), while his wingspan was below average. He is an okay leaper. Of course, all of this could change this year and measurements don’t always mean success; Richard Hendrix probably had the best measurements of just about anyone last year.

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 7, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty split on what to do with the first pick.

Part of me would love to see Blair, since he offers basketball qualities that we lack, and he’s genuinely a fun player to watch. He plays with passion and joy – and this is all for our entertainment, after all. But what worries me is that I can’t see a situation in which he develops into a long term starter for us. The power forward I envision with Derrick is Tyrus; or, if I’m optimistic, Chris Bosh. Blair doesn’t run well, and frankly, he struggled to score in the post against larger players. The comparisons to Millsap neglect that he’s not nearly as quick, nor does he have a decent jumper. I’m also not crazy about having a pf who doesn’t even block shots at the college level.

I keep coming back to B.J. Mullens, the player with (possibly) the highest ceiling in the draft. He was pretty awful this year: no doubt. Poor rebounding numbers, crappy shot selection and awareness. But in terms of his athleticism – not just run/jump but strength and coordination – he’s phenomenal. He also has good footwork in the post and a fairly smooth shot.

The reason I’d be willing to risk this is that, for Mullens’ first season, we wouldn’t need him at all. I’m perfectly fine playing Miller and Noah at the center and either letting the rook develop in practice and hope he goes the developmental route of Andrew Bynum rather than, say, Saer Sene.

It seems like we can be fairly confident that a decent wing player would be available with the later of the picks. I’d be thrilled to have Terrance Williams backing up John Salmons and Luol at the 2 and 3.

Maybe you swing for the fences early?

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Apr 7, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If I thought Mullens could develop, I'd agree.

I just don’t think he has the desire* or the peripheral skills to get dramatically better. My ideal draft is Cole Aldrich and Chase Budinger**.

*Obviously, I have little clue about this.

**I will not give up this dream!!!!!!!!

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be stunned

if Aldrich is available when the Bulls pick; if he’s available, however, it’s an easy call.

You gotta explain the Budinger love, though. I haven’t seen him much: how does he fit defensively? Where does he fit in our lineup?

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Apr 7, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no, he's not good defensively

I said a similar thing about Brandon Rush last year, and so far it hasn’t been true, but I’m not ready to change my opinion off one rookie-year case.

I think Budinger has the athletic ability and length to get his shot off regularly in the NBA. I think his ceiling is “average” defensively, but I think, after Henderson and Harden, he’s the next SG that can develop a consistent all-around offensive game. Although, I think he’s already closer to his ceiling than those two. I think Ellington’s defensive potential is lower than Budinger’s. I don’t think Green is athletic enough (but definitely thinking I could be dead wrong here). I haven’t seen enough Williams to feel confident his defense will translate and he’ll be able to expand his offensive games.

With Budinger, I like the idea of “knowing what you get”, especially later in the draft.

I agree about Aldrich. He’s the “dream”. maybe. He or Henderson. maybe.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The thing that I don't understand about Green's apparent lack of athleticism is that

he does extremely well in the statistics that usually measure quite well as proxies for athleticism – rebounds, blocked shots, and steals. So either he’s got incredible instincts for finding the ball – which is a skill in and of itself – or he’s being criminally underrated in terms of his athleticism.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's true.

I forgot about that – I was picturing the tournament games (2) where I got to see Blair. The ass-kicking of Thabeet was impressive.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Apr 7, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, YaoPao and I had this conversation about Mullens vs. Blair in the previous draft thread

and I was able to convert him to Blair. Mullens is an abysmal rebounder – considering his size and athleticism – and horrible defender. Typically guys that start out relatively bad on rebounds as freshman are at least known as defensive forces that ends up making them successful in the league, but Mullens makes criminal underuse of his physical gifts when it comes to rebounding and he also doesn’t try on defense. He’s got bust written all over him. If you’re a big man and you can’t rebound or defend the paint in college, it’s a pretty good bet you won’t be able to do it at the next level. Mullens, at this point, just isn’t very good at basketball.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also in last year's pre-draft measurements

Ty Lawson: 5’10.75", 6’1" wingspan, 7’9.5" reach. Ouch.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 10:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Blair vs. Patterson

Apparently the knock on Blair is his lack of vertical leap. Can anyone confirm this? I believe it was against Xavier that he got rejected a few times, so the comments may be based upon that. Nbadraft.net rates his athleticism at 7 out of 10, and quickness as well at 7 out of 10. That being said, there’s no question the guy’s a bruiser of an inside player, and a “character guy”, which should put him high on Pax’s list. Although on the other hand, I’ve just about had it with Pax’s picks who rely on things like character to overcome things like actual talent (that’s changing in recent years, but still).

Patterson is who nbadraft.net has the Bulls taking (today, at least). That website compares him to Buck Williams, which is a flattering comparison, except that the website goes on to list his back-to-the-basket game as being very developed. From what I remember of Buck Williams, his strength was that he was a low maintenance, clean-up-the-garbage guy on the offensive end. Did he actually have a polished back-to-the-basket game? In any case, as long as we’re looking at undersized frontcourt guys, he seems like a better candidate than Blair.

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 11:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Vertical leap won't matter for Blair, he won't be a shotblocker

I like Patterson’s post game, but it’s not as polished as Blair’s. And Blair is a stud defensively.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Umm... some people jump for rebounds.

Or to get off a hook shot, and stuff. I think you might be compartmentalizing attributes too much.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but being able to jump higher helps, right?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well sure, but it is not ultimately determinative of the issue.

plenty of guys with no hops have been successful and plenty of guys with hops have been unsuccessful.

It’s useful sometimes to talk in generalizations, but with Blair’s game, his footwork and strength are so solid that it makes up, to a large degree, for the fact that he can’t jump. He uses his body extremely well to create the space to get his shot off. Plus, he’s pretty nimble for a 260 pounder.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree w/ all that.

I just disagree that it “won’t matter.” If he has a 25" vertical, I don’t touch him w/ the 26th pick. If he has a 33" vertical, I like him a lot more.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a feeling he'll be able to jump higher than 25"

he seems to be able to dunk with relative ease, and I’ve seen him get up surprisingly high on some of his shot blocks. But I guess we’ll see come pre-draft measurement time.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I may have mis-read YaoPau.

I don’t think it will be bad, so it won’t be a problem. But if it were bad, I think it would definitely matter.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yea, I had a sense that what you were saying wasn't incongruous with

what YaoPau had said, but somehow it seemed as though you two were disagreeing.

I don’t think Blair will be a great leaper at all, but he should be adequate enough not to raise any red flags and that combined with everything else about his game makes him a sure thing to me.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow.

Thanks for the reference to that site.

This does quell my fears about Blair to some extent.

(Rec’d as well)

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree w/ that.

I think there’s a difference between saying it “won’t matter” and it’s a huge determining factor. You’re saying former and arguing against the latter, which I’m not saying. I agree that there is more to basketball than jumping straight up unimpeded. But I also think jumping straight up unimpeded undeniably helps in basketball and the better you can do it, the better you’ll be.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A Young Buck Williams....

was a beast. And yes he did have a crucial low post game. Most of us only remember the Portland days, but u gotta go check out footage from when he was a NJ Net to really see.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 7, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blair in the Xavier game

was a tough matchup for him. Pitt was smaller at every position on the floor so Blair had to depend on shoving guys around down low. Which sorta worked in that game, but he was just above average for that game, not spectacular. Sam Young was much more explosive and dangerous in that game. Blair relies more on the physical play prior to the ball hitting the rim so he always had great positioning once the ball was coming down. I hesitate to say Blair has perfected the art of shoving prior to the focus being on the bigs down low, but that is his game. I started watching this throughout the tournament this year and noticed how he gets good movement before the focus of the ref is on the players. When the ball is being shot, he is already establishing his position. This allowed him to not worry about out jumping others for the rebound, he simply kept the other man out of position.

Blair is vulnerable to getting blocked due to his height, but in the pro’s he will not be banging with the other teams C. This will give him more opportunity to use his big ass to move people in the lane.

by careyrd on Apr 10, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blair could be similar in style to

Anthony Mason. He wasn’t the tallest guy, either, and from what I remember, he did not have an amazing vertical. But he was really broad, and bulit like a brick wall. …Come to think of it, Charles Oaktree pretty much invented that style, so there’s a similarity there as well.

But he still measures in at shorter than those two (don’t ask me about standing reach though).

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 10, 2009 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buddinger please...

If he’s even on the board when we pick that is.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 7, 2009 11:22 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Budinger's got a good offensive game-

what’s the story on his defense? Underrated or is he really that bad? I haven’t seen him much.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Apr 7, 2009 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Except for his 3-pt. shooting, Budinger seems like a lesser version of Luol Deng

Check out what draft express says about him, and how it tracks Deng’s profile:

Budinger hasn’t quite developed into the star that some people unrealistically expected him to become thanks to his lofty recruiting rankings. He was after all ranked as the 7th best player (according to the RSCI) in a terrific high school class, which already produced 16 first round picks in its first two seasons of draft eligibility. It’s pretty safe to say that he’s not going to become a real go-to type scoring juggernaut, since that’s just not the type of player he is. The type of NBA player he does project as doesn’t look all that bad, though.

What makes Budinger a unique NBA prospect starts with the excellent size (6-7) he brings to the wing position. Fairly skilled offensively, Budinger can get his shot off in a variety of ways, and indeed gets most of his offense playing off the ball. An excellent spot-up shooter, Budinger does a good job running the floor in transition, moving off the ball, utilizing screens and finding ways to cut to the basket (where he can finish lobs with authority), and has even shown some willingness to post-up smaller matchups inside. His excellent leaping ability makes him a very dangerous finisher in the paint, even if he isn’t very good at creating shots for himself, and sometimes lacks a bit of toughness finishing through contact.

Not particularly explosive with his first step, and a fairly average ball-handler, especially trying to change directions with the ball, Budinger is the type of player who needs to be around other talented shot-creators if he’s to be effective. The fact that he has a very nice feel for the game, being an unselfish player with nice passing skills, should help in that regard. Only 36% of his field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, showing that he has a little more offensive versatility than you might initially expect. He needs to improve his ability to make shots off the dribble, as currently he is far more effective with his feet set.

Even if his size and frame give him a decent framework to build off, Budinger still projects as a below average defender at the next level. His poor lateral quickness, combined with his high center of gravity and tendency to easily get out of his stance makes it fairly easy for college players to blow by him on the perimeter. It’s not hard to envision him being Iso’d against at will in the NBA, which might make him a tough fit for some coaches. He’s going to have to make drastic improvements over the next few years if he wants to avoid being labeled as a liability.

And then under ‘Weaknesses’, the site says:

- Go-to scoring mentality
- Mid-range game
- Ability to create own shot
- Ball-handling skills
- Ability to defend position at next level?
- Lateral quickness
- Leadership skills
- Not always assertive
- Physical Toughness
- Ability to finish through contact
- Ability to shoot off the dribble

Basically, the only difference between this scouting report and Luol Deng is that Budinger is expected to take and make more 3’s, and apparently “can get his shot off in a variety of ways”.

Luol Deng went number 6 in a fairly stacked draft and no one was surprised; Budinger is projected to go outside of the top 10 in a weak draft.

In light of this, I’m wondering why the draft crush on Budinger?

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correction: Deng went #7. But still...

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Assuming everything you see...(which I don't)

…because Deng’s been a damn good player for most of his career, and if you could get that (plus a 3-pt shoot) at #15 or even #26, how is that not a good thing?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!??!?!

Why do you NOT like that? Have you soured so much on Deng?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well yeah, I have to admit that souring on Deng

was part of it. The other part of it, though, was that as long as the Bulls are drafting a SF, why not get one that is complimentary to Deng instead of one that replicates so many of his weaknesses? I’m thinking more of like a Brandon Bass type—a guy who doesn’t shy away from contact, who is a strong finisher, who is strong driving to the hole, and who doesn’t lack assertiveness. Maybe someone in the mold of Joey Graham or Danny Granger, both of whom were in that late teens range that Budinger may be in.

The reason is that when Deng is off his game due to lack of assertiveness, inability to take it to the hole and inability to create his own shot, what good would it do to take Deng out and put in someone with the same weaknesses and a lot less experience?

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I expect the Bulls to have a real coach at some point.

And for Budinger to play SG, and I think he can create his own shot decently right now. Deng was a PF in college; Budinger handles the ball a lot better. Budinger isn’t more versatile than Deng (I don’t know if you have an accurate read of Deng), but he’s versatile in different ways.

If they get someone as good as Granger, great. I hope they get someone better than Joey Graham.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Terrence Williams might fit your anti-Deng mold

He’s nothing like Brandon Bass (Williams likely will barely score) but he’s different from Deng in that he’s a great passer. After a year of Vinny’s playground ball, I’m itching to see a Rose-Williams-Miller lineup where three players can distribute.

by YaoPau on Apr 7, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Williams can score...

I think his weakness is shooting, but he is a scorer. I agree with you about him being a great passer. That’s what separates him from the Youngs, Ellingtons, and Buddingers. Williams played the point for Louisville at times, and did quite well running the team. He has real good court vision. He’s also another one of those long arm guys.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 8, 2009 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Budinger is also a really good passer

He has great vision, just not the same kind of handle

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 8, 2009 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Terrence Williams approach to the draft vs. the Chase Budinger approach

terrence Williams. Now that guy is really intriguing. 6’6" SG/SF who played some point for an Elite 8 team. Described by his college coach as a “freak athlete”. And from what little I know about him, may not share some of the same weaknesses as Deng. On the flipside, he’s a one-and-done if he comes out this year, and for whatever reason, his “intangibles” are ranked pretty low on at least one draft site (nbadraft.net—6/10).

I’m not knocking Budinger, mind you. I just think that the only way Budinger makes sense is if the few differences that he has from Deng are that remarkable that they truly make him a fundamentally different player than Deng. Like if scouting reports said his 3-point shooting and his strong finishes somehow made up for his lack of assertiveness and inability to create his own shot.

The thing is, we theoretically already have strong finishers inside with Thomas and Rose, and to some extent Noah, and when he feels like it, Deng. We have some folks who can hit a 3, like Salmons, Gordon (if he stays), and Hinrich (if he stays). If Budinger could become that 3-point threat from the 3 position, I wouldn’t be that averse to taking him, but he’d have to improve his midrange game.

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 8, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Deng is mid-range to inside player

Budinger played perimeter to mid-range with drives inside. For one.

You’re just looking at a few select attributes and instead of sticking with “there are a couple of similarities”, you’ve generalized it to saying they’re essentially the same player.

Their “approach” to the game might be similar, but their games are not.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 8, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, relax. I don't disagree with you as much as you think I do.

You shouldn’t take it so personally when people criticize Deng.

He’s soft and fragile, both in terms of physical toughness and in terms of his psyche. I’m sorry if that offends you, but he went from being projected to a future All Star to being the next in a long line of albatross signings by Pax. Let’s hope he turns it up a notch next season and avoids injuries, because right now he’s a black hole sucking in money and giving back not much else other than injuries, sub-par play, and oh yeah, a pledge to play for GBR.

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 8, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was defending Deng?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 8, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are wasting your time...

People here will realize that Buddinger is actually a highly skilled athletic player that belongs in the NBA. His game had to adapt every year to a different coach at UA, and the fact that he stuck around only makes him more valuable.

He won’t be available when we draft anyway.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 8, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

So I guess ur not part of the Yao/Pau Camp...

To them sticking around means u r a bum. I still don’t understand the whole “what age ur good at” discussion. To me, as long as u can produce in the pros, it really doesn’t matter if u r 19-20 or 23-24.

I agree that at 19-20, u r still maturing physically, so of course there’s more upside. But one thing u r not taking into account is mental development. The older player amy be finished developing physically(downside), but most times he’s way more prepared mentally for the rigors of the NBA, on and off the court(upside).

The younger player may have a brighter future physically, but mentally can they deal with it. Not many can, and we were lucky to get one that handles it very well in Rose, but look at the flipside in Curry and Chandler. Not pretty at all.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 8, 2009 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The point is that it's VERY likely that he won't be able to produce in the pros.

This is indicated by the fact that he couldn’t dominate in college until he was much older and more mature than the players he was competing against. He won’t have that advantage in the pros and thus, he won’t produce. Why is that so hard to understand?

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 8, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You couldn't be more wrong...

He scored 18 + points a game in one of the toughest conferences in America and nabbed 6 + rebounds playing next to a 6 foot 10 likely #2 pick (stealing multiple rebound opportunities on a regular basis). AND he shot 40% from the three (not sure how that will change in the NBA). He dominated. Maybe he didn’t dominate on the level of say a Blake Griffin, but few people do. He dominated, and he would have started on ANY NCAA team in the country.

“He won’t produce”, good thing you already have it all figured out, but consider this…

He was the PAC 10 Freshman of the year, he could have easily come out and went lottery, but silly Chase wanted to try and win a national title with Bayless and then Jennings (who bolted, and let’s see how HE does in the NBA). We should definitely give him low marks for that one too.

What exactly does a guy have to do to get ANY respect.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 8, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point was directed towards Sam Young - re: Ceasaleo and I's discussion above.

I like Budinger. He’s a good player, his ceiling is lower than I would have thought after his first year, because he really never got much better and he’s not very good on the defensive side of the ball, but I’d still be happy to have him as a late first rounder.

Calm down.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 8, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think fundamentallysound is still talking about Sam Young...

…from an earlier discussion with Caesaleo. I already converted him to at least “liking” Budinger.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 8, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually LOVED Budinger after his freshman season and even his sophomore season

but after this year, I’ve downgraded to just liking him, because he hasn’t really changed or improved much as a player in three years. I see him now as a pretty high floor, relatively low ceiling player. Before, because of his athleticism [leaping ability] and shooting ability I thought he had a real chance to be special, but now he seems more like a nice solid wing off the bench, but certainly no shame in that and I’d be happy to have him backing up Salmons and Deng next year.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 8, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also...

The reason you think he didn’t “dominate” his sophomore year is for reasons you are no doubt oblivious to.

  1. - Nic Wise (the PG) was injured for most of the year. That meant that Bayless ran the point, and anybody that followed UA B-Ball could see that Bayless was a shoot first PG (which is why he doesn’t play that position in the pros). It’s like saying that anyone who plays with early Knicks Marbury is no good, even though they tend to never see the ball on offense. Not that Bayless is as bad as Marbury, but he clearly needed the ball at UA to produce.
  1. - They had a coaching change early in the season and shifted to a more defensive minded mentality. Budinger learned a new system on the fly, something he was able to do by the way. Scouts saw that, and it speaks volumes to his B-Ball IQ, but who cares about that anyway.

Do I need to spell it out any further, or are you content to just look at the box scores and tell us that “he won’t produce”?

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 8, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

see my comment above: my point was about Sam Young and his 24 year old

domination after being below average up until this year.

I like Budinger. Probably not as much as you do, but I think he’ll be a rotation player in the league, and that’s certainly worthwhile with a late first rounder.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 8, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know who dominated at 18...

Kwame Brown.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 8, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was my point...

Generally speaking, There are plenty of guys who have dominated in college ball at 19 – 20, and got to the league and been busts. There are plenty of guys who are 22 – 24 that have come in to the league and produced. And Vice versa.

Now speaking specifically about Young, I didn’t and still don’t understand how u can downgrade a guy for getting BETTER during his years in college. Pitt isn’t a weak squad and if u pay any attention to college ball, u would know that they were contenders every year he was there. He grew into his role. He wouldn’t have been ready for the league at 19 or 20. So he worked on his game and the last 2 years he’s been a beast. Personally, I just think that work ethic, should account for something.

I don’t know much about Budinger, at least not from a 1st hand perspective. But I do know he was at his highest (value wise) after his freshman season, probably because of the potential. But in my opinion, u r getting a way better player now than u would have then. He’s had to go through some adversity and grow up during his stay in college, so even if his overall skill level hasn’t improved, his mental toughness has.

But lil things like hard work and mental toughness doesn’t seem to matter much these days

by Ceasaleo on Apr 9, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe there's something to your point

But who are these guys (legitimately and efficiently) dominating at 19 and 20 that busted in the pros?

From what I’ve looked at, I’ve noticed sophomore year stats at big, tournament worthy programs translate pretty well to the NBA.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Deng is a good defender when healthy.

Basically, the only difference between this scouting report and Luol Deng is that Budinger is expected to take and make more 3’s, and apparently "can get his shot off in a variety of ways".

Maybe we can?

by Granny Waiters on Apr 9, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I May Have An East Coast

I like Young or Williams more than Buddinger.. I think what they lack in offense compared to him is more than made up with d, and toughness.. But I’m a Big East guy, so I’ve seen way more of those two than I have Buddinger

by Ceasaleo on Apr 7, 2009 12:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Which is basically the opposite of me.

(at least in viewing terms)

I could be completely wrong on that, though., simply because I haven’t seen others enough.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 7, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Craig Brackins with either pick

can take his man off the dribble (at 6’10" 230) , back him down in the post, shoot the J, shoot the 3, draw fouls and make free throws. Averaged 20.2 pts and 9.5 rebounds, and was the only low post presence on Iowa State. Had nobody else on the team, and faced double and triple teams and still put up those numbers in a decent conference. People will say his defense sucks, but he was the entire offense and had absolutely NO help. He’s gotten better every year, and puts forth max effort in every game even though his team sucks.

by escolio on Apr 7, 2009 12:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Isn't Brackins too good to fall to the Bulls at pick 16?

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 8, 2009 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A.J. Guyton

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 7, 2009 3:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

nothing, just being a turd troll

I’m not very proud of myself.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 7, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hahaha, okay.

it’s your world, troll away, sir.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 7, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

guytons nice

as long as we stay away from that michael redd loser

by JSlakov on Apr 7, 2009 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

...and yet taller than Gordon... :)

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Apr 7, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my ideas

I still like the idea of trying to trade up with our two picks and getting our hands on Demar Derozan, but then again in such a weak draft I’m not the Nuggets pick will be able to get us more than cash considerations.

Without trades I’d look at with the #15-16

Tyreke Evans
Chase Budinger
James Johnson

and with the #26

Dejuan Blair (fingers crossed)
Patrick Patterson
Nick Calathes

by JSlakov on Apr 7, 2009 9:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like DeRozan a lot

and it would, for sure, be an exciting backcourt to watch with Rose, but unfortunately he’s absolutely terrible from three. He shot less than 17(!)% from three this year. Given that Rose isn’t able to stretch defenses with a long ball (yet), I want to see him paired with a guy that can hit a three with some relative consistency. I’m really starting to think Ellington is the guy.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 8, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DeRozan can't shoot and has no handle.

Raw. Succcess!!!

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 8, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

I thought freshman in college was too young to be able to say he can’t shoot? or was that a Derrick Rose only exception?

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

people read something somewhere one time and then count as conventional wisdom and then try to mock anyone who says otherwise? errrr?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

tons of people on this board, don’t remember if you did specifically, said that you couldn’t knock Rose’s outside shot last year because he was too young

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He also shot 33.7% from college three and had really fixable problems with his shot

DeRozan, on the other hand, shot 16.7% from three. That’s a HUGE difference. Rose showed some ability to shoot, DeRozan has shown none.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 9, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just based on numbers, I don't DeRozan too much for his shooting

He started off slow, but caught fire at the end of the year. In the Pac-10 and NCAA tournaments he shot 50/86 from the field, 31/42 from the line, 3/10 from 3’s, averaging 19ppg as his team went 6-1.

I’ve only seen him play once – against Arizona St in the Pac-10 Finals, and he looked like a smart player who has some creating ability but mostly got his shots within the offense, almost like a shorter version of Thaddeus Young. How that translates, I’m not really sure, but a freshman with a .561 TS% who dominated the Pac-10 when it counted most despite not having a shot has a rotation spot in the NBA.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't necessarily saying that DeRozan would be an awful pick

just that if you’re getting him, you’re absolutely not doing it for him to be a shooter. Given that our franchise PG’s best ability is driving to the bucket, I don’t know how much you want a guy sharing the backcourt with him that wants to slash to the hoop, too. On the other hand, though, slashing to the hoop is generally the best way to score points efficiently [either by getting fouled going to the hoop or by getting a dunk or layup]. So, I can see the arguments for and against DeRozan. I just don’t know that he’ll ever be able to shoot, because he couldn’t do it in college, so it leaves me wondering how well he’ll be able to do it in the Association.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 9, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The conventional wisdom

was that because Rose’s form was correctable (jump up not forward, let your off hand rest on the side of the ball, not over it) his shot would get better with hard work. Collective wisdom also noted that he’s an incredibly hard worker and a player that takes well to coaching. That’s why people thought he’d improve – not because of his youth. Or maybe I’m describing why I thought he’d improve.

It was a long time ago. Who cares?

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Apr 9, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't care

I just would like to see consistency in evaluating prospects

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at Blair ... I wish we had a spot for him.

 I don’t really see it [need a SG], but if we can get him, I’d definitely get him. He’s 6’6, but the comment somebody made about his arms is very, very true. Videos were surprising. He can almost touch the rim while standing.
Did I mention that I wish we had CDR?
With the 15th pick … I would expect Ellington. He’s the MOP and a SG! Don’t know if that’s a good thing or not, though …

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 8, 2009 1:04 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Let me throw a few names out there that haven't been mentioned.

Nobody seems to be mentioning that we are probably going to need a back-up PG. Hinrich is too expensive for this team and with the way he has been playing we should be able to get something nice for him. I’m just saying I don’t feel that comfortable with Hunter or a 10 mil. back-up. I’m not saying that we have to trade him for a SG and pick a PG in the draft, just that it is another option besides BG not resigning and I needing a SG. So…

How about Ty Lawson. I think he could play very well off the bench in a back role to Rose. He has a nose for the ball and seems to be a born leader. Yes, he is small, but effective.

Staying at the back-up PG, what about Maynor. He has looked very nice lately.

by Unrealcity on Apr 8, 2009 1:28 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

PG

I think if we trade Hinrich, we’ll likely get a point guard back in return. Whoever we trade Hinrich to will probably have a starting pg and a back up and would probably have no problem trading one of their PGs in return.

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 8, 2009 6:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No.

If this team had a 2nd round pick, sure. But when you’re likely to have at least one starting spot open and maybe two, you shouldn’t spend a 15/16 pick on someone who you hope is only going to play 10-15 mins. Now, if they had a 2nd round pick, hello Toney Douglas (my personal opinion). Oh, and what Jamaican said. Plus, there’s always one available in free agency.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 8, 2009 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Since when are decent back-up PG more available in FA than wing players.

I’m just saying take the best available player. We should have taken Brandon Roy, but we had BG, we didn’t need a SG. I just think there will be a couple of PG’s that are still around at 16 that are better (or will be) than the wing players available there. I was more so hoping I could get some discussion on what people thought of Lawson and Maynor rather than just, we don’t need a PG.

by Unrealcity on Apr 9, 2009 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Decent/shmecent. It's 13 mpg.

you can get cheap backup wing players as easy as cheap backup PG’s but it looks more likely the Bulls will need a starting wing than a starting PG.

It doesn’t matter if Ty Lawson turns out to be better than Derrick Rose (as you seem to imply by your analogy). If he is, the team is screwed. Rose is supposed to be a franchise PG and getting 30-35 minutes. That leaves little time for a PG. Spending $1.5 million on that and a draft pick is foolish at this point, especially since Lawson can’t play any other position. Not to mention they still have Kirk Hinrich. They also will need either a starting SG or (maybe) a starting SF sometime soon. That’s 30-35 mpg, or, at the very least, someone to back up both positions.

It’s really just bad management to do what you suggest.

I was more so hoping I could get some discussion on what people thought of Lawson and Maynor rather than just, we don’t need a PG.

You should have done that??? Who cares if it’s not Bulls related; not as if yfBB ventures in here anyway.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Confused...

Everyone keeps saying that we don’t have a 2nd round pick, but NBADraft.net has with the 46th pick in the 2nd round.
Did we trade that pick at the deadline?..

by Ceasaleo on Apr 8, 2009 8:23 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

We traded this year's second round pick

Essentially for the rights to Omer Asik last year.

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 8, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

pretty sure

we have the Knicks 2nd round pick from the Curry trade

by JSlakov on Apr 8, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm

http://www.nbadraft.net/2009draftnotes.html

this says we have New York’s second but doesnt mention the Sefolosha trade, so I don’t know what to believe

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yay for going to bulls.com

http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/trade_080626.html

The Bulls traded the 39th pick in NBA Draft 2008 (which turned out to be 6-6 guard/forward Sonny Weems from Arkansas) to the Denver Nuggets for Denver’s 2009 regular second-round draft pick. Chicago then acquired the 36th selection in NBA Draft 2008 from the Portland Trail Blazers for Denver’s 2009 regular second-round pick, the New York Knicks’ 2009 regular second-round pick (acquired from New York on Oct. 4, 2005 in the Eddy Curry trade), and Chicago’s 2010 regular second-round draft pick.

go to the source

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I did

I went here, couldn’t find the Asik trade so I moved on… yay for unlimited time on your hands

http://www.nba.com/bulls/history/alltime_transactions.html

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

or 45 seconds and google?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm

f it took you so little, why the indignation over helping me out?

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

mocking?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

congrats

you’ve mocked a stranger

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

oh, and as the retort goes:

you’re on a basketball blog, (in a draft thread before the end of the season, no less.) “time on your hands” is understood as a prerequisite

Don’t get angry because you can’t do simple internet research.

( we all screw up from time-to-time.)

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

perhaps

you don’t get the point. why do the research when I know there are people here who know for sure. or perhaps you don’t get the point of these sites in the first place?

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the point was that you cited the nbadraft.net site as a source and acted as though

you knew what you were talking about, when you clearly didn’t. It would have taken 5 seconds to get it right, but sure if you want to be seen as someone who knows nothing but talks as though he does and waits to be corrected, that works, too.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 9, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no I didn't

I said, “I don’t know what to believe”

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually, I was a bit harsh

you did say “I don’t know what to believe,” so strike that bit I said about you acting like you knew what you were talking about.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 9, 2009 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

because you're not lazy and have a mind of your own...

…and want to try to have accurate information when you make a point to further discussion?

i dunno, just a few reasons. there are probably more.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

what point?

I wasn’t discussing anything, just wanting to know if the Bulls had a 2nd round pick or not, which I found out as expected. I guess I’m lazy for using humans instead of a search engine to get my information

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

Worst trade ever
seriously.
Ugggggh.

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 11, 2009 2:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you shouldn't cite nbadraft.net

that website is a joke. www.draftexpress.com is your friend for draft analysis.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 9, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DX currently has us matched up to select James Johnson from Wake with the first pick we have

He is a SF / PF tweener, but I didn’t catch many Wake games this year. Anybody got a sense of how good he is? He had 1.18 PPA (or 59% TS%) and grabbed 9.9 rebounds per pace adjusted 40, which isn’t great for a college PF, but is good for a college SF, so I guess I’d need to better know where he played on the floor. Anyone see much of him?

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 8, 2009 3:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

He played PF

Al-Farouq Aminu played SF for Wake Forest

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 9, 2009 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is great

NBADraft.net has Nocioni as his player comparison

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

wrong draft website

fun for pretty pictures, weak for analysis and accuracy

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess

you didn’t notice the point of my post was the comedy of the situation

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right. I didn't notice your "comedy" at all.

I’ll make sure I work on that.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

I don’t know how you wouldn’t be able to see some humor in a reputable site projecting the Bulls to take someone who has been compared to Nocioni, on this board especially

by JSlakov on Apr 9, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is funny.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 12, 2009 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You should,

because the post was hilarious.

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 11, 2009 2:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

by the way

I’ve been looking through the Draft Express Best Case and Worst Case player comparisons, and they are just are arbitrary and worthless as the NBADraft ones. I mean seriously.

by JSlakov on Apr 13, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Both of them leave something to be desired...

Especially when you consider that we don’t know who will be picking where yet anyway.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 13, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I concur.

But realizing that does encourage thinking on one’s own.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 13, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

but at least

it doesn’t require Google :-p

by JSlakov on Apr 14, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The worst thing about DraftExpress comparisons...

…is that it only seems to include players 30 or younger to compare to.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 14, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought they did a pretty good job on the Rose comparison

they said his worst case scenario was Devin Harris and his best case scenario was N/A (i.e., he has no ceiling). That sounds about right to me.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 13, 2009 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We need to draft Aminu as well:

Luol Deng comparison!

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Apr 9, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

JODIE MEEKS

How come no one has mentioned Jodie Meeks?? This guy is a big big time scorer, averaging over 23 ppg at Kentucky. Plus he is 6’4". If we lose Gordon this summer he can step in and fill some quality minutes if we play Salmons at the 2.

by miggidy on Apr 9, 2009 8:46 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My guess is:
Meeks is a bit on the small side for a shooting guard at only 6’4, and is not an exceptionally long player. Powerfully built, he owns very nice strength for a guard, but is not an elite athlete by any stretch. His lack of size, length, and athleticism will likely hurt him when evaluating how his physical tools may translate to the next level as an NBA draft prospect.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bigger size than BG. Quite bigger.

by miggidy on Apr 9, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well its probably obvious he is not as strong as BG since BG is freakin’ jacked, but regardless of that, its kinda hard to compare strength with someone who is a Jr in college to a vet in the NBA.

by miggidy on Apr 9, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure why Meeks is projected so low

He was the best major-school scorer in the nation this year. He’s got some size, he scores efficiently, and he has some ability to finish in the lane. When I watch him I think JJ Redick with a little more ability to create.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does Redick have any ability to create at the NBA-level?

If not, then a “little more” hardly means anything. And if you don’t think he’s as good of a shooter (he might be, though, from what I’ve read), where’s that get you? Redick may have been drafted lottery, but his production is hardly 2nd-round ability. If he weren’t on a team that didn’t thrive on stand-around-3-pt-shooters, I don’t know what’d he be.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh, I think you're overrating late-1st round talent

Most of those guys bust hard. For an article I’m working on now, I found that since 2000, only 18 players drafted after the 15th pick have put up Points + Assists + Rebounds > 20 on average for their career. That’s 12 points, 6 boards, 2 assists – that’s a 7th man in some rotations.

Redick was a bad pick at 11, but look how many late 1st rounders that year have been just as bad or worse: Cedric Simmons, Shawne Williams, Pecherov, Douby, Shannon Brown, Ager, Mardy Collins, Freeland. Thabo, Hilton Armstrong, Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and Sergio Rodriguez have played slightly more minutes but haven’t done a thing. And second round only Craig Smith, Daniel Gibson, Paul Millsap, and Leon Powe have been better.

That puts Redick around a 25th pick talent, which is where we’d be drafting to get Meeks. I think there are better options than a 6’4" 3-point specialist, but I can’t why Meeks is being projected mid-2nd.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michael Beasley would be a 19.4 on your scale...

I’m just saying, that’s a pretty lofty expectation for a 7th man in my opinion.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 9, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

In that case...

Tyrus Thomas would be a 13.5

It’s even more flawed.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 9, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beasley's the 6th or 7th man on the Heat

He plays 24.5mpg off the bench, Dequan Cook is at 24.4mpg off the bench.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure I can find MULTIPLE starters...

That would still be under 20 by your scale (see TT above with a whopping 13.5).

The point is you can’t really measure a player’s worth via draft position with that small sample set of stats IMO. Too many variables to consider.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 9, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What are you arguing?

Tyger said JJ Redick has barely been as productive as a 2nd round pick. I said a lot of guys bust, and Redick was actually worth at late first.

And then your point is that Tyrus hasn’t been that good either. Sounds to me like you’re agreeing with me.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tyrus is good.

The metric is bad.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 9, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he's saying points+rebounds+assists is stupid.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, agreed

But it’s readily copy-and-pasteable. The point wasn’t to create an exact qualification system, I did it to quickly weed out the serviceable from the complete busts. When I did, it showed that as bad as Redick has been, his crappy numbers still put him top 30 in his draft class, making him a better 1st round pick than a handful of others (and better than the barely 2nd round you suggested, which is the point I responded to). Tons of players bust out and underachieve, and Tyrus putting up a 13.5 p+a+r career as the #4 pick only supports that.

by YaoPau on Apr 10, 2009 1:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, stop.

Then read what you wrote. Let me quote you here:
Khalod says: “Tyrus is good. The metric is bad.”

You say: “I don’t think you’re getting it.”

Tyger says: “I think he’s saying points+rebounds+assists is stupid.”

You say: “Right, agreed. But it’s readily copy-and-pasteable.”

At this point, we would agree that analyzing players by this measurement, while a quick overview, is entirely inaccurate and can’t really be used to judge players: it’s acceptable as a quick method to ‘weed out’ players, but it’s going to miss contributors.

Later:
“Tons of players bust out and underachieve, and Tyrus putting up a 13.5 p+a+r career as the #4 pick only supports that.”

Why did you just use the stat that you said was stupid to make an argument? WHY?!?

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 11, 2009 2:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because it's easy to cut and paste.

SMH.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 12, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still aren't getting it

What Tyger wrote:

Redick may have been drafted lottery, but his production is hardly 2nd-round ability.

What I wrote in response:

“Eh, I think you’re overrating late-1st round talent. Most of those guys bust hard… since 2000, only 18 players drafted after the 15th pick have put up Points + Assists + Rebounds > 20 on average for their career.”

Khalid is right that P + A + R isn’t a great way of measuring a player’s overall contribution, but it is a good way of determining if a player busts. Prevenge agreed:

it’s acceptable as a quick method to ‘weed out’ players

Based on the lower P+A+R’s of the other players in the 2006 draft, I wrote:

That puts Redick around a 25th pick talent

Khalid goes on this rant about how P+A+R doesn’t measure Tyrus correctly. I know, that’s obvious. But I wasn’t measuring strength of contribution, I was measuring ability to contribute, so your point about Tyrus was out of place.

by YaoPau on Apr 12, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you kidding...

“strength of contribution” and “ability to contribute” by cutting and pasting career P+A+R?

It’s Hollinger-esque!

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 12, 2009 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That should have read...

NOT “strength of contribution” BUT “ability to contribute”.

Do you not see the insanity of that statement or do you think I’m just not getting it? I get it. It’s still very very WEAK IMO, but I still get it.

However…

Another metric to consider:

Alphabetize every player drafted since 1984 then multiply every other person’s age by two, divide by multiples of seven, and throw in their left handed free throw stats for games played on Easter… The results are AMAZING!!!

For more info check http://www.82games.com/meaninglessstatsthatsupportmeaninglessarguments

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 12, 2009 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's basically like taking points and using that straight-up as a measurement of weeding out players.

Like, it works … I guess … but … not really.

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 12, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Listen guys, I know you're both geniuses

And you’re well aware that there’s more to player evaluation than points assists rebounds.

But the original point was “JJ Redick is a 1st round talent” based on his 7.7 P+A+R. Since you’re so sure that P+A+R is a weak metric for weeding out players, I’d be interested to hear which players from the 2006 draft with a P+A+R below 7.7 are significantly better than Redick.

by YaoPau on Apr 13, 2009 2:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I could care less about J.J. Redick...

His P+A+R is only a 7.7

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 13, 2009 2:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was a joke by the way...

I really am over this, have been for a while too. Do you really want me to waste my time adding up the P+A+R “career” numbers (a stat we both agree is stupid) for the 2006 draft class so I can make an argument that Mardy Collins, Marcus Williams, or Sergio Rodriguez is better than J.J. Redick? WHERE DOES THE MADNESS END!?!?

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 13, 2009 3:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And that's why it works for weeding out the crap

There are no hidden gems with P+A+R below 8: no player with 4 points, 3 boards, 1 assist… but 2 blocks and 2 steals. Players below 8 are busts.

I think you saw “P+A+R, easily copy and pasteable” and thought that was ridiculous. But we aren’t comparing Tyrus to LaMarcus with it, I was comparing Redick to Pecherov and Cedric Simmons. At some point, if you aren’t getting any P+A+R, you aren’t contributing.

by YaoPau on Apr 13, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fine but...

“career” P+A+R for 2006 draft class also takes into account a possible year or two where a player languished in a reserve role or mop up duty (I.E. 8 minutes a game or so) that throws all career per game numbers off. IMO you haven’t even scratched the surface of “abilty to contribute” as all career numbers will suck at this point anyway, therefore “weeding players out” is merely a conveniant way to win an argument that JJ Redick is a first round talent. It’s cherry picking stats instead of actually watching games and determining for yourself who has potential. Maybe you think it’s an easy way for you to learn about these guys, but don’t fool yourself into believing you really did.

"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 13, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
It’s cherry picking stats instead of actually watching games and determining for yourself who has potential.

By that logic, any use of stats is cherry picking, and the only way to know what’s what is to watch a lot of games and then claim you know something. I see problems with that, too.

There are flaws in P+A+R just like there are flaws in PER or WS or APM, but they each serve their purpose. Had I broken each player down using a combination of APM and mpg, maybe Redick finishes 28th instead of 25th. And you’re right, because it’s career there’s the possibility that a player plays 5mpg, 5mpg, 25mpg in their first three years and is actually good. That’s rare though, and doesn’t really change Redick’s draft value. If anything, Redick is the prime example of the 3rd year contributor, meaning he’s even more valuable than the 25th pick.

by YaoPau on Apr 13, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not just take points per game? It pretty much gives you the same chart.

No reason to pretend that it’s a legit measurement by adding rebounds and assists to it. :P

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 13, 2009 3:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think I am.

I don’t know much about Meeks, but if his ceiling is a better play-making, worse-shooting JJ Redick, why not go for someone with a higher ceiling?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you

I think the last thing we need is another shoot-first, pass never guy. All I said is I think he’s a 1st round pick quality player.

by YaoPau on Apr 9, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

gotcha

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a guy who has grown up a huge UK fan

and watched nearly every game of Meeks’ career, I think I can help out here.

1. His ballhandling is pretty bad. You think Bulls’ fans get mad trying to watch BG dribble? Well, Meeks’ handle is far worse as he often loses it out of bands or gets stripped trying to get in the lane.

2. He’s not a natural finisher around the rim and his body movements are far from fluid. If you watch tape of him, you’ll notice that he’s a bit stiff when he’s trying to finish and it often looks awkward when he’s trying to finish in traffic. This could be, in part, due to his pretty bad groin injury he suffered last year so maybe he’s not fully healthy still. Either way, he needs serious work when it comes to finishing in the paint.

3. As has been mentioned, he’s not of ideal “height.” He’s only about 6’4". I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s “powerfully” built, but he’s certainly quite jacked. Not quite like BG, but he is very strong so that’s a plus. He uses his strength to absorb contact in the paint, but he just doesn’t have that knack to still be able to finish the shot for the most part, unlike certain players we know pretty well – Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon.

4. His passing is below average. His court vision needs serious work (although I don’t know if that’s something that is innate and can’t be improved on or not) and he struggles to create plays for other teammates on the court. You’ll rarely see him drive and kick or drive into the lane and dish for a finish. That’s just not his game and not something that he’s really able to do at an NBA level at this point. He’s also a weak passer when it comes to dumping it into the post. He struggles to even get the ball into Patrick Patterson, one of the most beastly interior presences in all of college basketball.

That said, he’s a killer streak shooter who has nearly unlimited range and can also hit a pull-up jumper off the dribble. His single-handed, 54-point thrashing @ Tennessee was one of the most absurd performances I’ve ever seen. It reminded me of BG’s game vs. Michael Redd where he had 47 points or whatever. Meeks plays extremely hard and knows how to use screens, but he needs real work when it comes to trying to create his own shot off the bounce and make plays for other teammates. He’s pretty much a poor man’s Michael Redd/Ben Gordon at this point, which is not going to cut it if he wants to be a starter or legit rotation player in this league. I’m hoping to see him come back next year so he can play in Cal’s DDM offense which would force him to improve his handle and finishing skills. I think this is his best option if he wants to further his career. Hopefully he recognizes this because I think Cal can help him fix the things that he needs to fix if he wants to get to this level. As of right now, I’d be shocked if someone selected him in the first round.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 9, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that BG was probably stronger even coming out of school than Meeks.

I’m not sure why Meeks isn’t ranked more highly, either, echoing you and YaoPau’s points about him. I certainly think he has just as much of a chance to be good as Stephen Curry, who is being rated way above Meeks.

He isn’t the passer that Curry is, and is a little bit less of a rebounder and defender, but he’s an even better shooter than Curry.

I suspect it’s because Meeks has been so one-dimensional. He doesn’t get assists, rebound, or get steals and blocks [athleticism indicators] very well. What he does do is shoot extremely well. 63 TS%. 40+% from 3.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 9, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, hopefully you read my post above, but yeah...

Curry is a much better ball handler and far, far greater passer than Meeks is. I like Meeks’ build, hustle, end-to-end speed, and shooting stroke better than Curry’s, but if I’m drafting I’m taking Curry because he can put the ball on the floor and make plays for his other teammates both off the bounce and by making great passes. Meeks can’t do either of the latter, and those are two aspects that you should be at the top of any NBA wing’s talent attribute list.

Sure, a guy like BG isn’t exactly the beacon of dribbling and passing, but a guy like Meeks makes him look outstanding in both categories.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 9, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

as athletic, though?

I’ll wait for the measurements and times before I make definite declarations as you have.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's taller, but he's not quite as strong and he's even less athletic than BG.

He’s also not a very good defender. All the talking heads (ESPN, et al.) will tell you he’s a very good defender, but they’re wrong. He constantly gets beat by quicker guards. He just looks good on the surface to some because he plays the passing lanes and from time to time will get steals that lead to fastbreak layups. He also tends to get beat a lot back door because of his “steal-or-nothing” mentality on the defensive end. He’s not a guy you’re going to put on another team’s offensive stud as a wing stopper, that’s for sure. At least he does give effort on that end, though, which is more than you can say about a lot all of offensive stars in the college game.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 9, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK... So Who's Our Guy?

I think most of us agree that we’ll be getting the best big man available with the 1st pick we have. And I think we agree that the 2nd pick should be a SG/SF. And it seems that we’ve come up with 5 names that we think would fit the system: Chase Budinger, Terrance Williams, Jodie Meeks, Wayne Ellington, and Sam Young.

So I ranked them in a couple of categories I think are important for the position.. No numbers, just off the eyeball test.. Just from what I’ve seen and read.

                                      Shooting Athlete Defense Size Play-Making
Wayne Ellington 1 4 3 4 3
Sam Young 5 1 2 1 5
Chase Budinger 2 3 5 3 2
Terrance Williams 4 2 1 2 1
Jodie Meeks 3 5 4 5 4

So who are u taking if u have these options on the board at #25?:

I think I would go with Terrance Williams. The thing that sets him apart in my mind is the PG experience, u can never have too many play makers if u want to be a running team. His j is average, he has a good mid range game now and will develop the 3. And he can immediately come in and be an asset on D. Salmons, Rose, and Williams could be a lethal perimeter D combo. It also helps cushion the loss of Hinrich and/or Deng if we decide to unload either of them in a trade this summer.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 10, 2009 8:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you are mising a couple of favorites

I like Danny Green quite a bit and Marcus Thornton is also a favorite of a lot of people. I think they are worth considering if you do want to compare all of the SG/SF’s that are interesting to the Bulls

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 10, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

U r welcome to add them to the comparison...

I left them out because I feel like the guys I listed are the top 5 candidates.

IMO, we need a true SG/SF, which means size wise they should be about 6’5 – 6’8.

The only way I take a smaller SG is if he’s an extraordinary shooter, which is why I included Ellington and Meeks. Thornton is listed at 6’4, and will probably measure smaller. He is a good scorer, but he’s not the great shooter we would need from his spot.

Danny Green, would fit the profile size wise, because he’s probably around 6’6. But the only attribute that he isn’t clearly beaten by the other 3 in is shooting. And really, he’s only a better shooter than Young and Williams (u could probably debate he and Williams).

by Ceasaleo on Apr 10, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Per 40 minutes pace adjusted stats of the small wings

Name—————-Min——Pts – 2PtA- 2P%- 3PtA – 3P%- FTA- FT%- REB- Asts- Stls- Blks- TOs
Jodie Meeks ——-34.4 – 26.3 – 8.6 – 52.1 – 8.9 — 40.6- 7.2 – 90.2 – 3.8 – 1.9 – 1.5 – 0.2 – 3.0
Wayne Ellington – 30.4 – 18.3 – 7.3 – 53.9 – 6.2 – 41.7 – 3.4 – 77.7 – 5.7 – 3.1 – 1.1 – 0.2 – 1.9
 Marcus Thornton- 31.9 – 25.9- 12.0 – 52.2 – 7.0 – 38.8 – 7.0 – 74.5 – 6.7 – 2.6 – 2.0 – 0.5 – 2.2

I think it’s worth noting that Thornton has many more blocks and rebounds, so it at least seems like he “plays bigger” than either Meeks or Ellington and that you are ignoring him for other reasons than his size.

I mostly just wanted to add Green and Thornton to your list because you wrote:

it seems that we’ve come up with 5 names that we think would fit the system

I know that a lot of people like these other two players, from reading the other 3 draft watch posts before this. It’s fine if you are expressing your opinion about who the best 5 are, but if you do want to talk about the best wings as seen by the group, then you are missing a couple of names.

By the way I agree that we should try and draft a true SG/SF as opposed to just a sg, so if you were to ask me, we should only be looking at Young, Green, Budinger, and Williams.

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 10, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Green is probably the best all around player of those last four you listed, but Williams probably has the most potential.

Budinger is probably the highest floor guy and Young is a b-b-b-bust waiting to happen.

Fire Vinny.

by fundamentallysound on Apr 10, 2009 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'll agree to that.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 10, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Although, actually. I don't think Green will be the best all-around player.

I don’t think he has the athleticism to keep up his great defense from the college level. He could be someone like Bruce Bowen if they didn’t stop allowing so much bodying and hand-checking on the perimeter (supposedly, of course, Bowen must have been grandfathered in). I think Williams will be able to be that good defensively AND has the chance to improve his offense enough to be “all-around” better.

But as far as what they are now, or in college, I’d definitely agree.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 10, 2009 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It wasn't his size...

I do my analysis based solely on what I’ve seen in a game, or information i’ve read about the player. Not really big on stats, I believe my eyes, more than the numbers.

I left him out not because of his size. U r right he does play bigger than listed, and that’s the problem. His game seems to be more of an inside attacking the rim type of player. Wheneva I watched an LSU game, it seemed like the bulk of his scoring came from post ups and drives to the rack. At 6’4, that’s not what we need. For his size we need a shooter, not a scorer.

Please, don’t twist this into me calling him a bum or anything cuz overall I like his game, just don’t think it fits with what we need.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 11, 2009 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's fine

  I don’t get to see a lot of games (I find players I like and watch their games when I can), but I am more of a numbers guy. So if you don’t like Thornton, that’s fine, I am only luke-warm about him myself. I was just pointing out that your comments did not agree with the numbers and that Thornton might be worth a second look. My eyes deceive me all the time. I mean would you be surprised to learn that 37% of his shots come from outside, I mean that’s a lot (less than Meeks ~50 and Ellington ~45, but one could argue too much of their scoring might be coming from 3 and their overall offensive game might not be well enough developed).

by Jamaicanpi on Apr 11, 2009 7:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt Williams is there at #25

Draftexpress has him going 14th right now.

I’ll throw another name into the hat: Nick Calathes. He’s projected to go 30th right now. I haven’t seen him play much, but there isn’t much to see in this video or this one, besides a nice drive at the 2:10 mark. He also hits the game-winning shot in the 2nd clip, although it’s ugly as sin.

Still, not many 6’6" PGs put up 15.3ppg, 5.2rpg, 6.1apg with 199 FTA in the SEC their freshman year.

DraftExpress likes his passing ability:

Calathes’ passing ability is far and beyond his greatest skill. He sees the court unlike any other player in the country relative to his size and repeatedly makes difficult passes with either hand, creating easy shots for his teammates.

They don’t like his defense:

Defensively, there are plenty of question marks over whether he can guard his position at the next level, as lacks great lateral quickness and consistently struggles keeping quicker guards in front of him.

And they say his slashing ability comes from being deceptive, which works if you’re Brad Miller, but it’s not what I want to hear out of a 20-year old guard. I want to hear he’s quick as fuck:

While not overly quick or explosive by any means, Calathes uses his high basketball IQ to constantly find ways to get in the lane. He changes his speeds very well and uses deceptive moves to get his defenders off balance.

From those vids, it looks like Calathes won’t be drawing many fouls or penetrating to the rim much in the NBA. More likely he’ll use his deception and change of speeds to gain a step on his opponents, allowing him to penetrate the lane just enough to open up passing angles. I’d guess his scoring would have to come from 3’s and open jumpshots.

So he projects as a backup PG/SG who’s a weak defender and has to improve his jumpshot, but who rebounds well and would be the best passer on our team. I don’t see much of a future for him, but I think he brings more to the table than Meeks with more potential to contribute than Young.

by YaoPau on Apr 10, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't Know If This Guy Is Coming Out...

But if u want a big PG type, I’d much rather have Greivis Vasquez (sp?) from UMD than Calathes. He seems like the player u want Calathes to be. Nice stroke from outside, nice vision, good D, can get to the basket, and he’s a competitor. I think he’s about 6’6 or 6’7, watch tape of MD’s games against UNC and the tourney game against Cal, to see him at his best.

He’s not a 1st round talent tho, we would definitely have to pick up a 2nd to get him.

And wow, did Sam Young beat up ur lil brother or something? U really think this guy has more potential to contribute to our squad next year than Young? If Young, never took a shot and just played D, he’d make more of a contribution than this guy. The only thing Calathes does good is pass. Come on YaoPau

by Ceasaleo on Apr 11, 2009 1:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on Ceasaleo

Calathes’ stats as a 19 year old >= Young’s stats as a 23 year old. I don’t think highly of Calathes, but as far as “more potential to contribute” goes, it’s him.

by YaoPau on Apr 11, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You guys don't think Gerald Henderson will be available?

Chad Ford doesn’t even have him in the top 20. I think he could fit well for the Bulls. He’s an NBA athlete. He has an NBA body, though undersized at 6’5". I think he could be a solid player, not sure where he’ll land in the draft though. His stock is all over the place. Draftnet.com loves him at 5-10. DX likes him at 12-15. And ESPN’s got him somewhere mid-20’s. Go figure.

by Aisander D on Apr 11, 2009 12:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

We wasted so much time comparing Noce and Deng against one another for starting SF

Neither ranks in top 12-15 small forwards in NBA… we really need an upgrade at this position. These two are/were so bad, that they made Kirk also look bad… Kirk is better with better players.

Paxson needs to finishing filling this big hole (2008 signing) before other teams understand our situation with Deng.

man up!

by exult463 on Apr 13, 2009 1:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wait, there were people who thought Noc should start at SF? What?

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Apr 13, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go Fish.

we really need an upgrade at this [SF] position.

Maybe we can?

by Granny Waiters on Apr 13, 2009 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go age.

Joakim Noah: Better than you.

by Prevenge on Apr 14, 2009 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Can Budinger or Williams play SF?

Woe is me that I am finally giving up on Deng. If they bring him back and not Gordon, I won’t cry. However, if they trade him but do bring back Gordon and Hinrich, I won’t cry either.

For Budinger, would playing SF help lessen the impact of his subpar ball-handling skills and lateral quickness? Could he be a Danny Granger-type? What has Granger done before this year past year that Budinger couldn’t do? If he’s an actual 6’7" w/ shoes and has a “”http://www.82games.com/trueheight.htm" target="new">true height" of say… 6’9" due to his length, wingspan and vertical, I don’t see why he couldn’t be serviceable as a SF. Of course, whatever coach has them in the future, past 2010, wouldn’t really be able to use him at the PF position too much. ;-P

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 14, 2009 8:58 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't get the Budinger love

I like his size, I like his shot, but whenever I watch him I see spot up jumpshooter who can’t defend at the next level. The talk about him being athletic is a joke – he’s athletic for volleyball, but he doesn’t have the lateral quickness to blow by guys or play tight d.

Danny Granger put up 2.8 steals and 2.7 blocks per 40 his last year in college, Budinger is at 1.5 steals and .5 blocks, there’s no comparison. I like Terrence Williams though – I think he he can be a better passing Thabo.

by YaoPau on Apr 14, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"spot up jump shooter"

for a guy w/ 23% of team possessions and 1.20 PPA?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Apr 14, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the NBA

Not having lateral quickness can be a bitch

by YaoPau on Apr 14, 2009 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

At Least We Agree On One Guy ...

Terrance Williams should be our guy for that SG/SF. I’m trying to figure out who he would compare to who is in the league and I can’t come up with anybody.

by Ceasaleo on Apr 14, 2009 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Terrance Williams is gone before the Bulls pick..

Here are the guys the Bulls look at, as it stands now, for their first pick:

DeJuan Blair – if he’s still there
James Johnson – could play SF if you go big
Craig Brackins – if he declares, this is who I’m beginning to hope we take

There are no real SG’s or SF’s left at the Bulls pick (at least a player you take with the 16th pick, anyways).

by lovedabulls on Apr 19, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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