In which I (somewhat) crap all over the Bulls vaunted home court advantage
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 22, 2009 11:41 PM CDT
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PrintWith the Celtics coming to the United Center Thursday night, there is reason to feel confident: the Bulls held tight with the Celtics both games in Boston, and the Bulls have a very good home record, in fact a great one at 14-2, since acquiring Salmons and Miller.
But while that does mean we should make the assumption that they'd be even better against this Celtics team at home (especially a playoff crowd), I don't think they have some mystical home court edge that has me believing this will be easy. Were the Bulls truly that great at home post Salmons and Miller? Let's look at the opposition while I try and remember games that all seemed to bleed together this season:
2/24 - Magic - This was a good one, the Bulls offense was unconcious, everyone contributed, and VDN started to worry me about his use of his new frontcourt toys.
2/28 - Rockets - Another great victory, the Bulls had a monster 4th quarter run.
3/4 - Warriors - Stink. I think I was too depressed over losing in Charlotte the day before to care.
3/6 - Bucks - Stink.
3/14 - Hornets - A pretty good win. Added bonus was that it was one of the low points of the Hornets season.
3/17 - Celtics - Scored, and gave up, a crazy amount of points against a Celtics team that was without Garnett, Powe, and Davis. That's even worse than this version of the team!
3/21 - Lakers - One of the two losses, fell apart in the 4th. But it's the Lakers, that happens.
3/24 - Pistons - Pistons were without Iverson, Hamilton, and Rasheed. And they're not that good even with those guys. Rose was out for the Bulls.
3/26 - Heat - Stink. Really, they do.
3/28 - Pacers - Saturday morning game that shouldn't have been that close.Pacers were without Dunleavy, Murphy, and Daniels.
4/4 - Nets - Another weekend afternoon game that was truly difficult to watch and shouldn't have been as close as it was.
4/7 - Knicks - Awful performance outside of a good 4th quarter stretch.
4/9 - Sixers - Seemed impressive at the time, but the Sixers proved to be able to lose to anyone for the time they were without Thaddeus Young.
4/11 - Bobcats - Bobcats aren't that good and were out of the playoff race at this point. But they did hang around.
4/15 - Raptors - oops, the Bulls completely blew in the season finale against a team with nothing to play for. Though playoff-matchup-wise it worked out.
I'm not sure what this excercise even proved, outside of exposing myself as someone who rarely recapped weekend games.
I guess it's just to say that this great home winning record didn't feel that great when watching it, and doesn't look that great in retrospect. The Bulls beat a lot of teams they should have beaten, oftentimes by not as much as they should've beat them by.
But they were wins nonetheless. And getting them is better than not being able to take care of business at home.
And no doubt the Bulls play better there. But is this a situation that should make road opponents walk into the United Center thinking it take some stellar performance to get a win? Not really.
Unless, like a lot of these opponents down the stretch, the Celtics aren't better than the Bulls. And that's the real question.
I don't think the Celtics have to fear the Bulls home court, they should fear their own depleted squad just not being good enough. Paul Pierce talked after game two about them playing at a 'C' level, but maybe that's the only level they can reach without their defensive anchor and leader (plus his productive backup) out. So far, it's two games to none in those terms.
Should we never underestimate the heart of a champion? How about never underestimating the effects of age and fatigue? Not as catchy of a phrase, but it reminds me of what the defending champion Heat once found out about themselves.
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i dont understand...
how you can question a 14-2 record. they are CLEARLY a better team at home, and the playoff crowds will only help ensure that.
I kinda thought the Raptors just had our number
Not to say we aren’t to blame but dunno they did have some nice matchups and seemed to just be on when we played them.
And I kinda hated the refs in that Lakers game but we just lost it in the 4th….not to mention there seemed to not be any good matchups for us. (and Vinny made sure to help that cause)
Finally a game at 7 I might be able to actually catch it on time
They Do....
The Raptors are much better now with the addition of Shawn Marion, and their frontcourt is much better than ours too. Sadly…
J.I.
by Jeye15 The Legend on Apr 23, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
They could use a Noah up front
"As a basketball player gordon is a useless as tits on a a whore" - BigWay (Dec 2, 2008). BigWank, I'll miss you more than all the others. This song is for you, my brother!
But is this a situation that should make road opponents walk into the United Center thinking it take some stellar performance to get a win? Not really.
Dude what a confusing post…u bash, yet u praise and in the end you just sound grumpy. I hope the bulls win in 6 so you, Barkley and Wilbon can all wake up
you're dumb(by gocubs40)... ull think im a genius when we fuk shyt up against boston. thankyouverymuch (by Belize) ...Christ (by gocubs40 on Apr 15, 2009)
Anyone going to Game 6?
I was thinking of buying tickets, can get standing room only tickets on the 300 level. For $26 each. :P
Joakim Noah: Better than you.
Ill be there because
my wife, who is geometrically smarter than I am, had the foresight to buy tickets before the playoff began. The United Center will be off the charts, noise-level wise. I could see the Bulls winning in a blowout…or losing in a blowout. That’s what makes watching them such an emotional roller coaster. You just never know which team is actually gonna show up.
i know it sounds overly pessimistic right now
but let’s get to game 6 first
That's true...
We could still blow them out 4-1 :)
"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"
by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 23, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Where do you stand for SRO?
Can you stand in the corridors between the sections?
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Apr 23, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Man speaking on Barkley...
I used to enjoy watching Inside the NBA, but he literally provides ZERO analysis of the games anymore. It is almost damn near unwatchable at this point. I mean Kenny still tries, as does EJ, but Barkley is killing that show. He has got beyond lazy, and shouldn’t have that job anymore.
wait!
When did Barkley EVER provide analysis of the games? It has gotten old to me. It used to be fun to hear what dumb thing CB would say next but I think he’s exhausted every dumb thought. Plus his dislike for the Bulls and his constant complaining about how every game sucks has made me walk away during the half.
going into Bulls playoff lock down..now!
Well they didn't exactly
They were just playing around but they showed Gordon and Noahs response to Barkley and Kenny saying they suck a few weeks back.
well...
Im talking like a few years back, I remember actually enjoying these guys talk about a game. Maybe it was just a fresher take on the games compared to your regular ESPN analyst, but I remember feeling that they had something relevant to say about the games and actually attempt to break it down. Now they got some praise and they have gotten lazy to the point where I question why more people arent calling them out.
2 things
1. It’s called infoTAINMENT.
2. Watching the NBA over 15-20 years, there’s really nothing new under the sun – faces and uni’s change – results and strategies are cyclical.
...there's some folks that, if they don't know, you can't tell 'em.
Not sure if anyone else watched Inside the NBA last night
but they were previewing the Bulls game and they showed a clip of Barkley, about a month ago, saying we sucked after we beat Detroit, They played it for him, then showed interview clips of Noah and BG playfully calling Barkley a hater and giving him a little shit. It was pretty funny. Then after that Ernie got Barkley to admit that the Bulls were pretty good and that they were “on the rise”. As much as Barkley mails in his analysis and always seems to be ripping the Bulls, I have to admit that show is still funny as hell.
"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro
by Juiceboxjerry on Apr 23, 2009 7:00 AM CDT up reply actions
It's really sad that this is what Barkley has been relegated to IMO...
Particularly when you consider that he never won a title in the NBA, yet has to sit next to Kenny Smith, and sometimes Magic Johnson, and hear them talk about what a team needs to win it all. I realize that Barkley is one of those guys who should/could have won it all if not for some dude wearing #23, but you still gotta wonder if it just grates on his nerves.
"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"
by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 23, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
barkley actually made some good points last night
about the hornets-nuggets game, he pointed out that the hornets cannot run at all with the nuggets and thus have to really play a perfect half court game, because every missed three of theres is leading to easy buckets the other way for denver.
i do agree that in general, barkley’s analysis isn’t all that good, but i liked what he had to say last night
Lets just be positive here, game 3 is a must win for the bulls, to somewhat take control of the series.
Im praying for a bulls win tomorrow, lets go bulls, lets go D-Royse. :)
Derrick Rose: Point GOD
by Juan dela Cruz on Apr 23, 2009 1:09 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I don't think anyone ever thought that we had some kind of huge home court advantage going
At least I didn’t. My hope is that home court just makes us play a little bit better than we were playing in Boston and makes them play a little bit worse than in Boston. Which should equate to two fairly comfortable, yet contested, victories.
I think the major factor of being at home vs. road is that means guys like Davis and Perkins have gotta travel. And you better believe that, that fat fucker isn’t gonna can all those shots in our place like he did the Garden. And on our end guys like Miller and TiT will feel more comfortable and perhaps contribute a little more.
That’s probably the most we can really hope for. But, for Bulls fans it’s probably most exciting that we’ve already basically completely outplayed them (minus the rebounding… fairly important) on their court. So if we come back to a place that we normally kick ass in anyway, we should be looking pretty good… hopefully.
"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro
BOS is 4-5 on the road wo Garnett
They lost to the Clippers in LA. And this is the playoffs where home court winning percentage are in the 75% range.
Even the odds should give you some kind of confidence.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Apr 23, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions
It could give us the edge
but I don’t expect a blowout. We were closely matched the first two games. We should have a slight advantage. That’s about it IMO.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
Me neither
They can still challange us. And we can’t forget they’re the champs and that refs usually help the better teams. But, since we play at home, I expect them to help Rose to go to the line. Specially now that he got the ROY award
I do too.
Rose’s trips to the line will be a huge factor. 12 FTAs in game one, 0 in game two.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 23, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
He better be getting the damned calls at home. He's gotta do his part, too, and attack.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 23, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
With so many of their bigs hurt...
He would be crazy not to.
"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"
by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 23, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
It depends on our level of aggression
The refs react to the play on the court. The aggressor will get the benefits.
I hope we don’t get the Bavetta crew.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Apr 23, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Fortunately for us...
The Bulls are the better team :)
"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"
by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 23, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
That looks like an impressive run to me
7-1 vs. playoff teams. I don’t know if you expect home win to mean “blow the team out for four quarters”… a win’s a win.
Over on the apbrmetrics board, one member posted the ORtg/DRtg differential standard deviations of each team (7th post on that page). 27 teams have a stdev between 12 and 16. Every team has good days and bad days, so it’s not a sign of mediocrity if we’re down after three quarters to the Knicks. We won 14 of 16!
"you expect home win to mean "blow the team out for four quarters""
That’s what the Skiles Bulls used to do.
And ‘playoff teams’ include Detroit, Miami, and Philly. Yick. I think the Bulls are better than those teams. I guess that’s pessimism, somehow?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 23, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Quick look at the '06-'07 team
We had a +6.2 pt differential at home and went 31-10. Hard to say if we were blowing teams out, I think I remember Comcast showing we were like +8 during our 14-2 run this year.
But the Skiles Bulls were just better. Hinrich in ‘07 was much better than Rose was even during the final stretch of the year. Based on last year’s APM and statistical APM, I’d estimate Hinrich was around a 2.8 offensively and a +1.2 defensively, for a +4 overall. (fundamentally sound had him at a 3.43 in his system.) Rose in fs’s system this year rated out to a -1.69, though maybe he improved that a bit by the end of the year. So you’re looking at a 5, maybe 4 point swing as long as the starting PGs are in.
I don’t think we’re a phenomenal team at home, but we’re maybe the 4th (maybe 3rd with Powe out) best team in the East overall, and I think we should be favored in both these games.
2.5 pt fave tonight
fyi. tell you the truth i thought it’d be more like 4, so perhaps vegas agrees with matt as well
VINNY DEL STUPIDO
from Sam Smith’s latest article: http://blogs.bulls.com/chicago_bulls_blog/2009/04/could.html
With a Bulls win in Boston, the Bulls have the theoretical edge now playing home. Del Negro said he needs to get Tim Thomas in the game more to spread the floor and take additional advantage of the thin Celtics bench.
Or is this just another one of our genius coach’s media mind games?
I’ll assume the worst for now.
by KentuckyBullsFan on Apr 23, 2009 8:34 AM CDT reply actions
Funny
my wife, who is logarithmically more intuitive than I am in addition to being geometrically smarter, asked me during the last game, “What’s wrong with Paul Pierce. He looks sick; you can see it in his eyes.” Sam is not the only one who thinks there is something a little off.
such cerebral love
for your wife.
First "geometrically’, now “logarithmically”.
I can’t wait to read your next post…;-)
...there's some folks that, if they don't know, you can't tell 'em.
geometrically isn't really related to logarithmically
linearly would have been next if it had really been dropping in magnitude.
it could also go to exponentially. ;)
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
exponentially is
for later tonight, after the game 3 Bulls win ;-)
...there's some folks that, if they don't know, you can't tell 'em.
Correct in your assessment
of both the quality of my love for Lola and the relative measurement thereof. The proper next order of magnitude world, of course, be quantum. Just so you don’t think I’m a mono-dimensional faux intellectual, I can also say that she’s a hot babe, cooks a mean chile verde and has great health insurance. What more could a man ask for?
the aforementioned win
then two more, in that order. Hats off to you and Lola!
...there's some folks that, if they don't know, you can't tell 'em.
This is a family blog? :)
What more could a man ask for?
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Apr 23, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Lola agrees
with you, She thought “geometrically” was a wholly inadequate description of the gap in our relative intelligence levels.
at one point during the game, and i was there
i was like, wow pierce has been out for a long time. and then i realized he was still on the floor. heh. so bad.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
About Pierce: I said the same thing at the end of the 3rd Quarter
The close-up of his face at the time made me think he was either exhausted, sick, or injured.
by KentuckyBullsFan on Apr 23, 2009 9:18 AM CDT reply actions
I think he's probably just tired. He's getting older, played a long, long season last year and has had
to carry the load in KG’s absence for most of the last half of the year. That’s enough to wear anyone down, even Pierce.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 23, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Pierce
It’s also got to be tough for him because he knows they have NO shot at repeating w/o KG. Those guys know what a championship team feels like, and they’ve got to know what isn’t one. The entire Pistons team appears to be in the same situation.
by Jobu on Apr 23, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Pistons think they are going for the fourth or fifth title in a row I'm sure.
"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"
by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 23, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I will say this
if it’s a home rout tonight I’ll happily take all this back :-D
It’s just as of right now, I’m nervous.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 23, 2009 10:12 AM CDT reply actions
being nervous is always warranted with this team, especially with this coach.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 23, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Didn't you see the post above? We have nothing to worry about
Tim Thomas is going for 6 3s tonight, at least!
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
if Tim Thomas playing cuts Tyrus's minutes any further, I will throw things.
If it’s to give Fish a breather sometimes, I don’t mind as much. Thomas is effective when he’s hitting shots, not so much when he’s not. Throw him in there, see if he makes shots and if he does, great, if not, take his ass out.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 23, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm nervous too, but more excited
I was nervous before the Toronto game, because it just seemed like one of those games they should win – so paradoxically I was not surprised by the result.
This seems to me less like a game they “should” win and more like a game they “can” win.
I’ll try to be less specific in future comments :-P
"I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany." - Ron Burgundy
i've understood where matt is coming from the whole time
with this home court thing and after this post i just agree with it more. overall, we’ve become a pretty good team who I think should be the 4 seed in the east and not the freaking 7. however, this 14-2 streak at home is not because we magically morph into this incredible team at home, it was a product of many factors. the schedule favored us, and while we beat some decent teams at home, we also looked like ass in barely beating some below average teams too. now, you can say “well maybe we just didn’t get up for those games,” but conversely you could also say that well maybe the rockets and magic and hornets didn’t get up for playing us because quite frankly, we stunk when we played them.
and i don’t know how anyone could cite beating philly (especially without thaddeus) or detroit at home as a good win; those teams are freaking awful, and saying those wins were over “playoff teams” is just a lazy way of trying to boost the bulls pedigree.
that came out a little more pessimistic than i intended
i still fully think we can (and at this point, really should) win the next 2 at home vs boston. it’s just that i agree with matt and let’s call it what it is if that happens— we beat a good team that won the title last year at home, and is clearly a far different team right now
MAN...
…My rookie just won ROTY, won his first of seven games in a Playoff series- (makin’ it do what it does!) So the bottomline is this: we’re WINNING tonight! If John Salmons “A” game shows up tonight, we’re busting Boston’s ass! LOL!
J.I.
by Jeye15 The Legend on Apr 23, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions
Meaningless
With the exception of the Toronto game, you can throw it all away man!
It’s a “New Season” as they say.
That’s not to say the Bulls are forgetting that Raptors game, no! They are not.
That is the one game that meant something, and they were home and playing well
for a stretch.
However, all the rest, especially your postings of PRE-TRADE games, are not very significant to
tonight’s game. For all your stats, the Bulls have been a pretty darn good team at home, post-trade.
Lastly, some reasons to be cheerful, the Bulls HOME RECORD IN MARCH AND APRIL, here:
Wed, Mar 4 Golden State W 110-88
Fri, Mar 6 Milwaukee W 117-102
Sat, Mar 14 New Orleans W 97-79
Tue, Mar 17 Boston W 127-121
Sat, Mar 21 LA Lakers L 109-117
Tue, Mar 24 Detroit W 99-91
Thu, Mar 26 Miami W 106-87
Sat, Mar 28 Indiana W 112-106
Sat, Apr 4 New Jersey W 103-94
Tue, Apr 7 NY Knicks W 110-103
Thu, Apr 9 Philadelphia W 113-99
Sat, Apr 11 Charlotte W 113-106
Wed, Apr 15 Toronto L 98-109
Starting to get it?
:-)
um, no?
you said to throw it all away, then you took it out of the garbage to show me.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 23, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Did you even read the top part?
in which, ya know, yfbb takes those wins and losses and breaks them down further, making a case for his position?
I guess not.
Joakim Noah: Better than you.
Who among us expected Game 1 and 2 to be that close
and even win Game 1. Chicago can’t even win 3 straight games not too long ago. I just hope they continue to play together and play with a lot of energy. If they can continue to keep it close, I’ll be happy no matter what. Maybe This yrs playoffs can help them get the respect they deserve from the refs and may help us next season.
This is a young team being led by a rookie pg and a rookie coach. And they’re up against the a vetaran defending champs. Even with a depleted lineup, still has 2 vet stars + rondo. They have the experience and the “respect” of the refs.
Not me
I thought we might challenge in one game, but lose both of them with one of those losses being rather embarrassing.
Coming back home my optimism is much higher. Derrick wants it. Ben wants it. Lets hope the UC crowd brings it.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Apr 23, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions
that's how I pictured it as well.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 23, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
i cant wait to hear the intro tonight
they say its gonna be so loud that the united center is gonna rattle off of its foundation
They are going to
represent Derrick his ROY award in front of the fans. That should get everyone fired up. Stern will also be there.
"Pep talk to the officials behind closed doors"?
Stern will also be there.
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Apr 23, 2009 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions
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