The Effect of Garnett
by YaoPau on Apr 16, 2009 1:44 PM CDT
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Print[Note by your friendly BullsBlogger, 04/16/09 2:09 PM CDT: From the FanPosts, great work by YaoPau. What I like even more than the dropoff from Garnett to Powe is the even further drop from Powe to Davis/Moore. I also liked John Hollinger's take on Garnett's absence. -ed.]
The Celtics with and without Garnett this season:
Record:
Record with: 44 wins, 13 losses (.772 win%)
Record w/o: 18 wins, 7 losses (.720 win%)
Point differential:
Points with: 99.9ppg scored, 90.8ppg allowed (+9.1 differential)
Points w/o: 103.2ppg scored, 99.4ppg allowed (+3.8 differential)
That +3.8 differential translated to around a .630 win% this NBA season, so Boston's .720 win% without Garnett seems a bit lucky.
ORtg/DRtg:
Assuming a consistent (90.4) pace throughout the season regardless if Garnett played or not, and also assuming an even ratio of overtime minutes with and without Garnett (because I'm too lazy to click on every game)...
Rtgs with: 109.4 ORtg and 99.4 DRtg (+10.0 differential)
Rtgs w/o: 113.0 ORtg and 108.9 DRtg (+4.1 differential)
Some notes:
- Several Celtics were banged up in March and April, not just Garnett. So the drastic differentials aren't all on KG. Then again, the increase in ORtg sans-Garnett makes absolutely no sense, so that +4.1 differential could be accurate or even high.
- More on that ORtg thing. If anybody has an idea why there was an increase I'd be interested to hear it (their 44.7 3PT% in seven April games didn't hurt). Still, the Celtics should be okay offensively without him considering his decline from last year. Garnett's offensive statistical APM last year was +4.28, but this year it's just +2.29. Leon Powe (+1.01 this year) should be able to fill in fine, assuming he's 100%.
- Style-wise, that non-Garnett 113.0 ORtg and 108.9 DRtg most resemble the Portland Trailblazers' 113.9 ORtg and 107.8 DRtg. Net Rtg-wise, the +4.1 differential is closest to the Rockets' +4.4, the Spurs' +4.2, and the Nuggets' +3.6. Considering the Celtics played most of their non-Garnett games against the weaker Eastern Conference, I'd say the Celtics team we're about to play has a talent level similar to the Nuggets.
- The Celtics have no defensive replacement for Garnett. His +7.59 defensive APM led the league last year. The defensive APMs of his backups from last season? +0.27 for Powe, -0.87 for Davis, +0.15 for Mikki Moore. Considering the average starting PF had a +1.22 defensive APM last year, all three are below average, and Davis is well-below.
Overall, I don't think the Bulls are the favorites, but we'll make a series of it and I'd be surprised it go at least six games. (It better, damnit, I've got tickets to the 6th.) After all, we've been in this position before... we knocked off the defending champion Heat in 2007 with an ailing Wade. Hopefully that means something :)
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This was surely a fair bit of work, but because I'm curious and don't have the time to
calculate it myself (law school finals lurking around the corner), YaoPau, if you don’t mind crunching similar numbers for the Bulls since the trade, I’d be really interested in seeing exactly what level team we’ve been. I know our win % would suggest around a 50 win team, but I suspect that our point differential might be slightly different than win %. Great work, though. Really good stuff.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 2:30 PM CDT reply actions
Why go to law school when you have BlogaBull?
I’ll have some time later in the day, I’ll see what I can come up with.
Actually, I think this is what you were looking for
From the Hollinger article:
Chicago had a home-court-adjusted scoring margin of +2.6 in the second half of the season after it acquired John Salmons and Brad Miller, putting it within a point of the Celtics’ adjusted mark of +3.4.
similar to what I was looking for, but that's just on our homecourt. I'd like to see home and away together.
To give a clearer picture of what type of team we are relative to the C’s.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I ask myself every day why I came to law school. Still looking for an answer.
Especially in light of the tanked economy and diminished job prospects. At least I have two more years before I’ll be hitting the job market. Hopefully things will have swung the other way by then.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
it's a well known fact that the only growth industry
is sports blogging.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 16, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
why do you think I'm here all the time?
honing my craft, man, honing my craft. One day, I’ll get ambitious and start a blog.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Good luck with the finals
I really did enjoy law school, but finals week always sucked, and especially that first year. My Torts prof had a fixation on Bert & Ernie, with occasional other Sesame Street characters thrown in.
I still have notebooks worth of outlines stored in a box someplace -they’re of no possible use to me anymore, but it was too much work to consider just tossing them!
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
My Torts Prof loved throwing in South Park characters. I'd say advantage me, but that's because
I enjoy juvenile humor. The fact that my Torts professor clearly did as well, that was pretty great.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 17, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
don't worry
he’ll be on the bench acting like a braying jackass. It will inspire me (to throw up).
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 16, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Can you get a ticket for Game 3 or 4 directly behind the celtics' bench? :)
It will inspire me (to throw up).
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Apr 16, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
"the Celtics team we're about to play has a talent level similar to the Nuggets."
interesting comparison
I’m sure I could try to shoot holes in it if I wanted to nit pick, but that obviously isn’t your intent so I’ll refrain (besides, I hate when people do that to me)
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
The Nuggets are a very, very good team. I think the comparison is actually pretty good.
You’ve got the two superstars (Melo and Billups / Pierce and Ray Allen), the wildcard youngster who can singlehandedly win a game (Rondo / J.R. Smith), the stable of big men who can contribute (Birdman, K-Mart, Nene / Powe, BBD, Perk). It’s not that far off, really.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
the Nuggets would whoop us silly.
as it’s somewhat relevant, I’d also like to take this opportunity to once again profess my love for Nene.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 16, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
love for Nene seconded. That guy is fuckin' awesome. I'd take Nene over Amare.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Not that it's possible, but a Nene, Thomas, Noah rotation is for the ages.
Well, okay, not yet. But I still believe.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
That would be so much badassery, I don't think I could take it.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I remember arguing for trying to trade for Nene while he was hurt and before the Camby trade.
At least Brad Miller showed up, but Nene was dream guy for a longterm solution.
i always liked nene
and i’m so happy he’s gotten healthy.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
thirded
Although this team has been good against the Nuggets around trade deadlines.
I thought when he went down in the first game that one year (last year? two years ago?), it would be the perfect time to trade for him.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
speaking of Nene,
have you ever been to www.yougotdunkedon.com? Nene is like their poster boy. He throws down some filthy tomahawk dunks.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, I absolutely love watching the guy ball. He's the man.
Fire Vinny.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 16, 2009 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions
After reading these comments, I checked out Nene's wikipedia page
I don’t at all remember that he was drafted by the Knicks. Check out this shit-storm:
Draft day, ’02: Knicks trade Nene and Camby (!!) to Nuggets for an injured Antonio McDyess
Midway into the ‘03-’04 season: After playing just 18 games in 1.5 seasons with the Knicks, McDyess re-injures himself.
Later in the season: Knicks trade McDyess, two first round picks (!!), and cash for Marbury and Penny Hardaway and their giant contracts
Two years later, in 2006: Knicks trade Penny Hardaway’s then-expiring contract along with Trevor Ariza for Steve Francis’ non-expiring contract.
2007: Knicks trade Steve Francis and Channing Frye to Blazers for Zach Randolph and his contract that ran through 2010.
They managed to get rid of Randolph this season, but not after a 23-59 season last year with a $94 million payroll. To top it off Utah has New York’s #1 pick in 2010 because of that Marbury/Penny/McDyess trade. And here I thought the Bulls made them look like fools… that’s really bad.
Nene Awesome Name
He legally changed his name to NENE in 2003? Wow, how cool is that?
He is almost as cool as Chachi…
The LuchaLibreXXX afterpary, I don't worry about success in the ring, just dream about having fun at the afterparty. Where what happens at the afterparty, stays at the afterparty. Unless of course you get too drunk off tequila and take your camera phone out to record everything.
by LuchaLibreXXXafterparty on Apr 18, 2009 1:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Very interesting post
Personally I believe the Ortg increase is just noise. But the big problem is certainly on the other side. I like the Nuggets comparison for level of talent – when the injury happened, I wrote the C’s without him would be a mid-50’s wins team.
Good luck for the series. I also see this going 6 or even 7, but I believe Boston wins in the end.
I think this begs the question...
Do you know the combined record of the teams they played with and without Garnett? If so, what was the record of the teams they lost to?
They could have had a softer schedule after KG went down and still took a nose dive, or started playing good teams (ie: better than the Bulls… Which is just about every team in the playoffs anyway).
"Playoffs? Are we talking about playoffs? Really, I mean... Playoffs?"
Is Garnett really out?
Supposedly he might not be …
but I still don’t know if they Bulls can win. I’m picking them in 6, but it’s obviously me just being a home.
http://bullbearsock.blogspot.com/
http://www.bullbearsock.blogspot.com
I see you have a "blog".
Could I perhaps hear more about this so-called device of internetacular informational conveyance? It is apparent that the note the computers prowling the internets behind you leave automatically is not enough informatation to correctly compumatilate the addended advertising.
Joakim Noah: Better than you.
Great article
but how come nobody’s written “The Effect of Scalabrine?” And allow me to jump on the Nene bandwagon, dude’s got skills.
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