Really not sure what to call this, honestly.
I've been having this discussion about how consistent (or inconsistent) the Bulls players have been this year, how often certain players show up or fail to show up, and what impact this all has had on the W-L record for the year. This eventually reminded me that we've had a similar conversation at some point in the past, using player averages and standard deviations as a measure of consistency. So, I've wasted the past hour or two compiling some data for the Bulls to see what shows up.
Right now this is all really just descriptive, but I found it interesting so I'm assuming at least a couple other people might as well. :) I may get motivated to do some actual analysis someday.
First, I used GameScores from basketballreference.com as the per game stat. While I don't think it's necessarily the best formula for measuring contribution, it does include a wide variety of stats in a single score and was available for every game this year. I included the guys currently in the main rotation, plus Luol out of interest, but did not include Tim Thomas since he's played very little. These are the average gamescores and standard deviations for the year (Bulls games only) for each player:
Ben 13.59 (7.68) Luol 10.70 (6.50)
Derrick 12.74 (6.60) Tyrus 9.10 (6.57)
Kirk 8.04 (5.99) Joakim 7.85 (5.51)
John 13.50 (6.51) Brad 10.97 (5.10)
So my first thought was that either this didn't work so well as a measure of consistency, or everyone on the team is pretty inconsistent. I may go back and calculate the scores for some of the players with reputations for consistency to see whether it looks substantially different. I wasn't all that surprised for this team, though - we've seen guys bounce between good games and bad all year. I do think using a single stat (eg, points for Ben) might show more consistency for some of the guys, but over all stats categories it has been a pretty crazy year.
While starting with fairly large standard deviations gave the guys a wide range for the "average game" category, I was OK with that. My perception is that the guys on the team have all played reasonably well this year with the exception of a handful of games. The extreme outliers (+/- 2 s.d.) were kind of interesting: Derrick had the most hideous games at 3, while Tyrys and Brad had none. Everyone else had 1 on the season. On the spectacular game side, Derrick and Luol had none, Tyrus, John and Brad 1 each, Kirk and Joakim 2 each, and Ben 3. But remember, this is just in comparison to their individual season averages, not on some sort of objective scale.
And here is how this all shows up in wins and losses:
"excellent" game W-L "average" game W-L "bad" game W-L
Derrick 7-5 32-26 1-9
Ben 9-5 28-25 4-10
Kirk 5-2 22-15 1-5
John 2-2 12-7 1-1
Luol 4-5 16-16 3-5
Tyrus 8-5 24-24 7-10
Joakim 12-3 24-30 3-7
Brad 4-0 9-8 3-2
(No surprise that Derrick failing to show up would cause the team the most problems!)
One thing that massively stood out was how great Tyrus and Joakim have been compared to the beginning of the season. Both had the vast majority of their "bad" games early on and a whole lot of "excellent" games in the second half of the season.
I still want to go through and look at whether the guys show up or not against good vs. bad teams, but I didn't have time this morning. Also, I'm planning to look at combinations of good and bad games by player pairs. If anyone has any other thoughts of what to do with this, jump in.