The Kirk Hinrich "Great" Debate
As promised, I have re-evaluated Captain Kirk's grade from my report card. The new grade is still going to be a point of contention, but I don't expect for anyone to agree with me. Instead, I think this will be a decent starting point for a discussion on El Capitan, and I really want to see what others have to say on the topic.
First, I should probably clarify how I graded in Part 1 and Part 2 of my report cards. Bitterly, that's how. But the grades are harsh for one key reason: this team is underperforming. I could give Rose an A, BG a B+, and lower Timmy's grade to something much closer to his actual production, but the posts have done their part of opening discussions and I'll leave them as they are for that purpose.
The grades I gave were based on several factors. Comparison with other players in the league at similar positions is a given, as is performance based on minutes played. I also factored in expectations at the beginning of the season, performance vs. contract, and overall value to the team (which is why missing games hurts grades).
Kirk's parents (i.e. the BaB community) have convinced me to raise his grade to a C, just above that C- level. Now, on to my rationale.
So wait. I'm giving Kirk the same grade as Lindsey Hunter? Yes, I am. But that doesn't mean they are equals. That's ridiculous. Kirk has definitely played better than Hunter, but let's look at their roles. Hunter was an emergency pick-up, persuaded out of potential retirement to fill in while Hinrich was out. He was expected to back up Rose and be a mentor, which he has done well. But that's about all he's done, so he gets a C, a decent grade, but nothing special.
For Hinrich, let's go back to the draft, since that inevitably changed his role. With the lucky lotto ball, we got first dibs on drafting young talent, and we had established two key needs: a quality big man, and a point guard who could improve our poor offense. Sure, we can say Rose joining the team automatically means less time and production for Hinrich. But we only drafted Rose in the first place because Kirk was not doing his job well enough. The bigs were doing pretty lousy, but we went with a PG anyway.
So his role changed, and, professional as always, he accepted it without complaint. He played a few games off the bench and starting, putting in some inconsistent performances ranging from great (I think I remember a triple-double this season from him) to mediocre (6 points on 25% shooting with 4 assists, a TO, and a foul in a little over 23 minutes against below-average Indiana is a random example. 1 point on 0-7 shooting with 2 assists and 3 TO's in just shy of 23 minutes against lousy Minnesota is another). Then he got hurt. Being hurt hurts the team, too, whether it's his fault or not. The he came back, and the Bulls' D improved, in part because of his leadership and efforts. Nevertheless, his performances have still been inconsistent, ranging from good (like the game he started with Rose out injured) to forgettable.
What about that leadership, that counts, right? True, he is a leader and will continue to be one wherever he goes. He was pretty good at it a couple years back, but he's led the team to lukewarm play for 2 years straight. Even if the team makes the playoffs, let's not forget their record and the weak Eastern Conference. Can we blame all that on him? No, of course not. But, as a captain and veteran of several years with this franchise they really needed him to step up, what with the coaching changes and all. But he hasn't.
Let's gain some perspective on Kirk. I've taken a look at his role (minutes, playing-time situations, and positional aptitude) and compared it to some other guys. These are just offensive, but I'll get to defense later. I've included ages and current salaries as well. ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports are my sources
HINRICH - Age 28, $10M in '09
M - 26.2; FG ATT - 8.1; FG% - 43.3; 3PT% - 42.0; REB - 2.4; AST - 4.0; TO - 1.8; PF - 2.6; PPG - 9.8
K. DOOLING (NETS) - Turning 29, $3.3M in '09
M - 26.4; FG ATT - 7.6; FG% - 43.4; 3PT% - 43.5; REB - 2.0; AST - 3.4; TO - 1.3; PF - 1.7; PPG - 9.4
DJ AUGUSTIN (BOBCATS) - Age 21, $2.2M in '09
M - 26.0; FG ATT - 8.4; FG% - 43.6; 3PT% - 43.8; REB - 1.8; AST - 3.6; TO - 1.7; PF - 1.9; PPG - 11.6
CJ WATSON (WARRIORS) - Turning 25, $711K in '09
M - 23.2; FG ATT - 6.8; FG% - 45.4; 3PT% - 42.2; REB - 2.3; AST - 2.4; TO - 1.1; PF - 1.5; PPG - 8.6
RAMON SESSIONS (BUCKS) - Turning 23, $723K in '09
M - 27.0; FG ATT - 9.7; FG% - 44.4; 3PT% - 18.2 (on .5 att); REB - 3.3; AST - 5.3; TO- 1.8; PF - 2.0; PPG - 12.2
With the exception of Dooling, Hinrich is the oldest player in this group, and by far the highest paid. Of course that's nothing to hold against him personally, because he's just trying to get his money like everyone else. That still hurts the team though, especially when he's at peak age and is performing offensively with the likes of this group of guys (nothing against them, but they're not exactly big-shots). Others with comparable stats that I might have included are Eddie House, Luke Ridnour, Sebastian Telfair, and Will Bynum (if you double his minutes and multiply the rest of his stats by about 1.5).
Of course, those are just statistics, not a complete comparison. But if Hinrich's D is the difference, then why is this team 17th in D overall? They weren't that great on D last year either, and Hinrich has to shoulder at least a part of that blame. The truth is, last year he wasn't showing the effort. This year, the effort is better than last year, but time off has caused Kirk to be a step slower on D.
Hinrich does have value as a good back-up, or a starter on a select number of teams (most of which are not very good). Portland and maybe Houston (depending on Brooks' progress) are the only 2 playoff teams I could see him starting for, which, in my eyes, makes him seem pretty average, relatively speaking. Could we get something valuable for him in a trade? Absolutely, but Pax needs to find a team that that has the cap space and has interesting pieces (like Portland). That contract makes things tricky, but by no means impossible. The biggest challenge will be that teams are going to be reluctant to make big moves this summer when the next summer is so much more appealing. That's just common sense, but it needs to be kept in mind when determining the likelihood of making a big splash in the summer market.
For all these reasons, I give Opie a C. There's my take, now let's hear yours. Poke holes in my logic, share your own, and reveal your plans for getting more wins.
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Hinrich
Would be fantastic on the Heat (Giving Wade more breathing room to attack the lanes even more) or in LA, where his defense gives Kobe more room to focus on offense, and his pseudo-combo ways would work wonders in the triangle.
Kirk’s value is too low for his cost to our team, but he would help far more than 2 teams out there, together we named 4 playoff teams. Hell maybe even Detroit could use Hinrich in the Billups mold…..Stuckey’s explosive at times offensively but he might be nice as a 1-2 off the bench for the next few years….
by majoyenrac on Mar 31, 2009 4:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right
I just mentioned the 2 teams he’d start for. He could provide some value to most teams, as he has done for us already. I mean, if the Celtics had him to back up Rondo and Allen, I think they’d be unstoppable, so I agree, he has trade value. I probably should have made that clearer.
by T-Boogie on Mar 31, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Understood that
But I think Hinrich would START well next to Kobe or D. Wade or Rip (with Stuckey coming off the bench)….and I’m certain there are more.
His declining salary is a genius thing for Pax, because it means as the years go on, he’s more and more a value….
by majoyenrac on Mar 31, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe starting with LA would work,
but I like Chalmers with Wade right now, it seems to work well. Stuckey’s got great talent, and I think he deserves to be a starter, but splitting time with him and Rip could help them, assuming the Pistons and Bulls would be willing to talk (not sure how that would go, though).
by T-Boogie on Mar 31, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know Stuckey's got real talent
But he’s young and prone to mistakes. He also from what I see seems to be most effective as a shoot first PG and a quick spurt kind of player….Kirk’s a more controlled PG who could facilitate to their aging team…..but again who knows what they’ll look like next year anyway, that could all be a mute point.
Chalmer’s looks good with Wade at times, but at other times looks like a complete rookie. Kirk’s a more controlled, less risk taking defender, and I think Wade would love having him help cover teh PG/SG’s so Wade can do his thing attacking the passing lanes and help defending like crazy for even easier steals. Chalmers would be a nice Dooling type to give both of ’em a breather and in 2 more years can perhaps take the reigns from Kirk.
by majoyenrac on Mar 31, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think portland is a better fit
and i think teams like memphis and minny and even the bobcats or the mavs could use kirk. Im sure there are more teams that i just cant think of right now.
I like portland because they have a Superstar sg, a borderline allstar pf, a high potential or at least solid center, and a few different types of sfs. With hinrich, they get better defensively, and get a smarter floor general as opposed to steve blake. Also i still think hinrich is a better scorer than blake and i am positive next season he will definetly prove that (i think this season he really worked at trying to get his pg skills up, which you can notice cuz his pg playing style changed drastically this year in terms of h ow he passes and his dribbling patterns, but this was before rose turned out to be so damn good)
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 31, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh the Mavs....yeah
I think the Lakers are the best fit, seeing as Fisher’s aging, and was never quite Kirk to begin with, but is and was steady. But yeah the others you mentioned are good.
by majoyenrac on Mar 31, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they got farmer
and that chinese guy (6’9 pg can come in handy) plus kobe…so i think they dont have a desperate need for a guy like kirk, if they got rid of farmer though i could see how kirk could be of great use for them..
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 31, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see Farmar though as a suitable starting PG
He’s a nice sparkplug off the bench though, but I can’t think Phil would love to see him come in as a Fisher replacement. Kirk though would be great in that system, especially with his D.
by majoyenrac on Mar 31, 2009 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blake is no slouch in the PG smarts department.
But all he does scoring wise is shoot threes (very, very well).
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 2, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Several more "Playoff" teams have been mentioned that seem reasonable spots for Kirk.
Portland
Houston
Heat (Rose>Kirk>Chalmers. No way Chalmers starts over Hinrich)
Mavs (Kidd is probably going to Cleveland or LA next year and they will need someone like Kirk)
Hawks (Same thing with Bibby probably leaving)
Sixers (again, good chance that Miller is gone and he is getting old anyway)
There’s six playoff teams. And I think we would need to trade him to a playoff team to get any value besides expiring contracts a la Minnesota’s deadline deal.
by Unrealcity on Apr 1, 2009 3:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with most of this
i dont like it but….they are valid points
My only problem was your thought on why we drafted rose. The way i remember it and the way i always thought of it, and the way it seems to be turning out makes me think this…..Rose was drafted number because he was the best player in teh draft hands down, if the bulls wanted an upgrade over hinrich they couldve traded the pick drafted westbrook and still gotten a big or future draft picks. However, i think they did what you are supposed to do with the number one draft pick, draft the best player available, the guy who is gonna be the best of his class…and i think the entire nba agrees they did just that. He has more upside than westbrook ever will, far more mature than beasley will ever be, and has the ability to really change the game on both sides of the court which oj mayo will never be able to do.
Aside from that little tid bit ill agree with alot of what you say. Hinrich i think is still a solid starter in this league, and id say alot of those teams that the other pgs you listed are on have a better system than our team has currently, but its hard to say…and hinrich really never asserted himself as a veteran leader, although he is probably more of a leader than anyone else on this team its just not enough. So in term of his production towards this team a grade of c make sense to me. He is not god awful as you previously thought, but he hasnt really imposed any major upside on this team this year.
He is still a great player and like i said, if he “transfered” i think he would do very well, and i really hate admitting that but i think ive come to the realization that in order for kirk to be that great player that i believe him to be, its gonna sadly have to be on another team. Who knows though, maybe if he works on his shooting in the offseason and gets until the next deadline, he can suprise us all. I hope for it to be true, and ill continue hoping for it as long as kirk is a bull. (as a side note i do hope he stays a bull at least till the deadline just so i have a chance to go to hinrichs last game as a bull, that would be a major dissapointment to me personally if i never got the chance to watch hinrich play live in a bulls jersey)
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 31, 2009 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I think Kirk is undervalued to our team, but I think for us to get the Kirk that he can be, we’d have to not have D. Rose, and Rose will be a better player than Kirk next month, they’re fairly equal now (Rose is flashier and can more often take over than Kirk ever has, but Rose still is less consistent, and far inferior on defense—though I for one was impressed with him bothering Marion a bit, even if that was a really bad matchup for Rose that he shouldn’t have been asked to handle).
I do think Kirk is a very good player, I think he overcompensated last year for a bit then quit hard on this team, as games against the Bucks attested to. Unfortunately Kirk went down to injury this year so we couldn’t get a real chance to see the 3 guard trio all year long, to see how it would work throughout a year….and instead we tend to see Kirk at the 1 always with Rose shifting to the 2 guard, which is not a lineup that helps anything but in the short term game at hand….
Given that using Kirk mostly seems to come at the detriment of Rose’s development, it would be best to see Kirk go, even though I expect him to have a real resurgence elsewhere.
As for his numbers, yeah those are fair points, not too solid, but Kirk also has indicated he won’t be 100% until this offseason and did come back to play a month and a half early, where he likely wasn’t ready…..
But the end all be all is that now that we drafted the best guy available who just so happens to play the same position as our PG, Kirk should go. Kirk’s best a PG with some combo abilities, he is truly more PG than SG, and thus shouldn’t be forced into a SG spot unless we were lucky enough to have a true back to the basket scorer….which we still do not. If we had that kind of scorer, having a 2 PG lineup would be wonderful….
by majoyenrac on Mar 31, 2009 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup yup
I agree with the fact that Hinrich would do better elsewhere. I also agree that Rose was the best player in the draft, and that certainly does factor into the discussion. However, before the draft, Rose and Beasley were valued by most as relative equals (some said one was a bit better, others felt the opposite was true), and the Bulls chose Rose. Rose is a far better playmaker, and his flashiness is never in excess. He’s a better penetrator and scorer than Hinrich, and, overall, I’d say he’s definitely better than Kirk right now (even though, as we’ve all pointed out already, Kirk is the better defender). But if Kirk leaves, I do think he will do better, but we’ll have to wait and see.
by T-Boogie on Mar 31, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kirk Hinrich will bounce back....
but not on the Bulls Team and depending on how hard he works he could even return to the form that made him an Olympian and rising star. I remember Mark Price and Kevin Johnson and how one of them had to go and both went on and became stars in the game. Hinrich won’t be a Chris Paul or Deron Williams but I think he will be right behind them. If he could find his stroke he has everything else already and depending on what team he goes to….that team could be deadly with him running the show.
This situation with Derrick Rose and his salary has made him valuable and teams will want a player like that playing for them. He has not become a cancer nor has he become a stumbling block to Derrick Rose. That is important and other teams see that and he is a better PG than most of the PG in league right now.
He should be traded in the off season so he can return to his “old” self. Hopefully we can get a big man out of it or another SG to replace Ben Gordon….if he leaves.
by Bart71 on Mar 31, 2009 4:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
its an improvement, for sure
but I don’t think its possible to get a valid read on Kirk’s year. You compared him to a few other point guards playing comparable minutes. Trouble is, Kirk spends a lot of his minutes playing positions other than PG. D.J. Augustin would never find himself playing the 3 or guarding Chris Bosh, and that’s because his coach isn’t a dingbat.
Also note that even though Kirk has played 3 different positions on the court, he averages more assists than any of those guys listed. I’m not trying to turn this into a Kirk love-fest; if anything, these numbers prove that Kirk needs to be elsewhere. Its best for the organization, and its a heck of a lot better for him.
p.s. if I were the Lakers, Heat, Rockets, or Magic, I’d start Kirk in a heartbeat.
by darksmokepuncher on Mar 31, 2009 4:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
*more assists than anyone besides ramon sessions
sorry, I just caught that
by darksmokepuncher on Mar 31, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
High AST/TO rate
And assists are tricky stats. Like I said, those are just for one example, which by itself is weak. Also, the Magic have Nelson (who will be healthy again), and I think he’s better than Hinrich.
by T-Boogie on Mar 31, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Kirk's played SF for little stretches, but not that much,
so I just ignore Vinny’s “logic” and see how he plays as a guard
by T-Boogie on Mar 31, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think we drafted rose because
kirk wasnt playing well.. in that draft it was rose or beasly, and u gotta go with the absolute best pick
I remember Michael dribbling at the top of the key. Everybody knew to just get the hell out of his way. - Steve Kerr
by Yibs on Apr 1, 2009 10:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kirk was playing crappy and showed a lack of leadership.. was it complacency? maybe? I tire of losers not taking this game seriously
And getting paid millions… Look at a player like Alonzo Mouring(#?), a consumate competitor who mentally and physically prepared himself (even with hardship) every year and every game…
Now we have to settle with the likes of Kirk and Deng? Stats, and Injury Guy who show so little regard for winning. If Kirk was serious about winning he wouldn’t still be so anti-clutch in the 4th qtr. No improvement in this area..yet.
It would be nice to see Kirk playing for another team, and the Bulls playing against Kirk’s team in a battle to the end and Kirk was leading the ofensive… Automatic win Bulls…
man up!
by exult463 on Apr 3, 2009 7:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol, that last part
is how i felt when we played the knicks (the one where we won), and duhon starts casting up shitty 3s at the end of the game which lost it for them. :D
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
by Jaina on Apr 3, 2009 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do Jazz blogs have dozens of threads discussing the merits of Brevin Knight?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 1, 2009 12:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if Sloan ever calls him Bevin Knight
http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/
by NormVanBeer on Apr 1, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not that I mean to deride thought-out fanposts like this
Just deriding Kirk Hinrich and his inflated importance to the Org.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 1, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
He’s certainly no less redundant to us than Deng, and is and will continue to be cheaper and is playing harder for us down the stretch to boot….
3-31-09: The date when the last relative Vinny supporter knows he NEEDS to be canned. Fire Vinny, Fire Bickerstaff, hire a new head coach and keep Del Harris as the head assistant. Jerry, a player with Rose's skills and upside don't come around often.
by majoyenrac on Apr 1, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am ok
with Deng and Kirk, but Kirk’s more tradable at the present time than Luol, and that’s the sad thing of it all….
3-31-09: The date when the last relative Vinny supporter knows he NEEDS to be canned. Fire Vinny, Fire Bickerstaff, hire a new head coach and keep Del Harris as the head assistant. Jerry, a player with Rose's skills and upside don't come around often.
by majoyenrac on Apr 1, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you've tried this before
and I’ll say the same thing: that means not only do you equate Kirk’s talent with Deng’s, but Rose’s with John Salmons.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 1, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
But price for salary and declining value of Kirk’s salary relative to his play when he’s starting and his leadership are higher valued than Kirks.
I think a Salmons-Rose 1-3 combo for the money they’re earning and their abilities together is better than a Rose-Deng combo……which wasn’t working very well.
I do think Salmons might just be the better player than Deng, and he’s locked in for a ridiculously fabulous salary.
I also think price per performance that well Kirk might be more valuable to us for the price as a backup than Luol will be as our 6th man….
3-31-09: The date when the last relative Vinny supporter knows he NEEDS to be canned. Fire Vinny, Fire Bickerstaff, hire a new head coach and keep Del Harris as the head assistant. Jerry, a player with Rose's skills and upside don't come around often.
by majoyenrac on Apr 1, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there's so many things wrong there
and not just the first line which I assume you merely flubbed your names.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 1, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is a fabulous contract
Which conveniently ends when his production will, considering he’s 5 years older than Deng.
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Apr 1, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You do realize we've been debating whether he's average or below average, right?
Sometimes I wonder how much you dislike Kirk and how much you just dislike us….
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
by wjb1492 on Apr 1, 2009 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinrich's better than average,
he’s pretty good, actually. But this season has been disappointing, and I’m not sure his best interests include a future with the Bulls.
by T-Boogie on Apr 2, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, that pretty much sums it up for me.
He’d be better off on another team. We’d be better off with him on another team.
by Sports2 on Apr 2, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, obviously I'd be among the first to say that in a general context
I believe Kirk is a better than average PG. I don’t actually think this season has been disappointing, either, at least other than free throws and TOs – but shooting, defense, playing the role the team has open to him, I think he’s done great.
But in the context of your post, the discussion has been (to start with) whether Kirk deserves a D for the season, progressing to whether a C is appropriate. IMO, it’s been a pretty civil and accurate discussion of both his strengths and weaknesses as a player, as well as the difficulty of the Bulls keeping him given his contract and role on the team. So, it’s a little funny to see Matt jump in with a comment that implies this is a thread full of Kirk-adoring posters who want him starting over Derrick.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
by wjb1492 on Apr 2, 2009 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
But even Kirks TO’s tend to happen in surges when we have a big lead…..I tend to see 2-3 turnovers always when the lead is like 15-20. Not saying that’s a good thing, but I think it’s misleading….I think Kirk takes his guard down a lot when the lead gets high and is very apt to get sloppy with the ball then…..when the game’s closer, he tends to do well (except for that stupid inbounds play early this year)….
That seems to always though be the trend with Kirk. I bet you the Rockets have a system to monitor that in his stats….sicne they seem to monitor everything down to the nitty gritty….
I can’t quantify, but it just seems that way from the year’s watching Kirk….and those moments are standing out.
Kirk’s TO’s aren’t like Ben Gordon’s….Ben’s TO’s tend to happen by him overdribbling and getting too fancy when the game’s on the line and he dribbles off his foot…whcih is infuriating and often leads to an easy bucket the other way (But I’ll argue Ben’s much more effective overall in his game, so I’ve learned to live with this flaw).
3-31-09: The date when the last relative Vinny supporter knows he NEEDS to be canned. Fire Vinny, Fire Bickerstaff, hire a new head coach and keep Del Harris as the head assistant. Jerry, a player with Rose's skills and upside don't come around often.
by majoyenrac on Apr 3, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fans of good teams don't have to blog about Brevin Knight,
but my team is not good, so I have to blog about Kirk (bad team, low standards, or something like that). Coming soon though, my next article – “The Brevin Knight in Shining Armor: The Future Savior of the Bulls.”
by T-Boogie on Apr 1, 2009 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really gonna write that blog,
I’m not sure we all could handle that much excitement.
by T-Boogie on Apr 1, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blazers Edge has hundreds of threads discussing the merits of Sergio vs Bayless
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 2, 2009 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Steve Blake is no Derrick Rose, is he?
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Apr 2, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly for us
The talent/skill drop off from our starting PG to backup is much more than your PG situation.
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 2, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn those lottery balls Rose is not in the Rose City :)
by Norsktroll on Apr 2, 2009 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
could've had Chris Paul :-p
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 3, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
or williams...
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
by Jaina on Apr 3, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We were happy with Telfair
/facepalm
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 4, 2009 4:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We also could have had Danny Granger in 2005. Truly not the smartest draft year.
by Norsktroll on Apr 4, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but danny granger was #17
you guys were obviously not the only ones not interested then.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
by Jaina on Apr 4, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a lot to pick apart with this line of argument, but looking at 82games.com's
lineup data, and basketballvalue.com’s adjusted (for opponent quality) lineup data, the best lineup for the Bulls that has Derrick Rose on the floor is:
Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah.
Now, looking at the other positive lineups, they all seem to include Ben Gordon. So, clearly Kirk works next to Rose when Deng, TT, and Joakim are on the floor together.
Ben and Derrick don’t seem to work as well together (much to my surprise). Probably has a lot to do with both of them being pretty bad perimeter defenders.
I think Ben Gordon is a better player than Kirk on the whole, but there’s some doubt there, especially because Kirk is the far superior defender over Ben and Kirk is decent on offense.
I still think that Kirk has more value to another team than he does to us, and that he should be starting for someone in the league, but we drafted our franchise player at his position, so ultimately, his days should be numbered, but who knows which way the organization decides to go.
Stats with contextual observations, good. Stats with no context, bad. Anecdotal observations unsupported by data, the worst.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 1, 2009 6:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
woops. forgot to complete the thought...
Now, looking at the other positive lineups, they all seem to include Ben Gordon. So, clearly Kirk works next to Rose when Deng, TT, and Joakim are on the floor together… but it’s less clear that with the rest of the team he’s the better fit. As Derrick becomes a better defender (which will hopefully happen), then I’d expect to see Ben and Derrick lineups be more successful.
If Derrick never becomes a defender, then we’re in trouble, because Ben’s just not getting much better on defense than he already is. He works hard on defense, but he’s just not that good at it. I don’t know if it’s height, length, or lack of defensive instincts, but Ben is just an inferior defender and he’s been that way for a while.
Stats with contextual observations, good. Stats with no context, bad. Anecdotal observations unsupported by data, the worst.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 1, 2009 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something that bugs me about the advanced stats
is it leads us to focus on small sample sizes. Like… if we were to look at a player’s box score stats and note that he’d only played 60 minutes over the course of a season, we’d draw very few conclusions from his play.
But when it comes to looking at a unit of five guys, it creeps into acceptability. (That’s how many minutes the Rose/Hinrich/Deng/Tyrus/Noah lineup played).
Just to continue along that point for a moment, the nice thing is we watch enough to know a little bit of the context in which those numbers can be placed.
Rose/Gordon/Deng/Tyrus/Noah would appear an inferior lineup for example. I copied the main lineups (all of them over 20 minutes- the cutoff, I guess, for the adjusted +/-) into Excel and started adding things up. They played almost 320 minutes, and had a net +/- of -7.2 per 48 minutes. By contrast, the Kirk lineup was 15.91 per 48 minutes.
So a clear cut “win” for the Kirk lineup, right? Not so much to my mind.
- First, the sample size is extremely small.
- Second, we know that Deng/Tyrus/Noah at the beginning of the year, when Kirk was out, were quite a bit different than they were later in the year when Kirk returned to the court. I daresay Vinnie has even coached better. So how much of the difference is due to Kirk, and how much is due to the three other guys and the coach looking better?
So this leads to another question. How are these lineups doing recently?
Line Min Pts For Pts Ag Net/48
RG 1417.42 2953 3032 (2.68)
RH 185.22 385 384 0.26
HG 271.52 631 543 15.56
The Rose Hinrich backcourt has about 185 minutes in the sample, with 60 coming in that lineup you mention.
The others are pretty equally spread amongst:
Line Min PF PA Net/48
RHSTiM 40.73 82 83 (1.18)
RHSTM 43.63 95 98 (3.30)
RHSNM 40.53 81 96 (17.76)
The same lineup, but with Kirk out and Gordon in show:
RGSTiM 10.23 24 14 46.92
RGSTM 56.15 107 123 (13.68)
RGSNM 58.27 129 124 4.12
The frontcourts are
Salmons-Tim Thomas-Miller
Salmons-Tyrus Thomas-Miller
Salmons-Noah-Miller
The Rose-Hinrich lineups are all slightly negative, while the Rose-Gordon lineups tend to fair slightly better. Oddly the Hinrich-Tyrus-Miller combo is better than the Hinrich-Noah-Miller combo, while the Gordon-Tyrus-Miller combo is worse than the Gordon-Noah-Miller combo.
So much for transitivity.
What does this lead me to conclude? Well, nothing really… the sample sizes are all quite small. Around a single game’s worth of minutes in every case. That’s like trying to divine something about dice in only a couple of rolls. If we’re going to conclude anything at all, I hope it’s that the numbers are highly variant over a small sample.
But since I’m going on about small samples, why not add the Hinrich-Gordon backcourt to the mix:
HGSTiM 44.67 124 97 29.01
HGSTM 45.27 95 99 (4.24)
HGSNM 35.33 77 66 14.94
For the little its worth, Hinrich-Gordon generally tends to fair better in this sample than either RG or RH. Meh… it’s making my head spin.
by Sports2 on Apr 1, 2009 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree with what you said re: small sample size. It's part of the reason I opened with
this caveat:
There’s a lot to pick apart with this line of argument,
You picked it apart, and rightfully so. I was throwing the stuff out there as a starting point for discussion, and I certainly didn’t mean for it to be definitive. Your point about Tyrus and Noah playing better since Kirk returned completely independent of anything Kirk has done is well founded. Noah was out of shape, and Tyrus was just ruddy awful to start the year, so he had to regress to his mean, and has actually been pretty awesome relative to the player he was his first two years plus the first part of this year.
Finally, your last point I think is something I think that is pretty easily explainable:
For the little its worth, Hinrich-Gordon generally tends to fair better in this sample than either RG or RH.
Kirk and Ben have spent their entire careers, pretty much, playing together. Gordon and Hinrich are both better than Rose on defense, and Gordon is better on offense (to this point) than Rose, and Hinrich is probably much better on defense to the point where whatever advantage Rose has on offense is completely mitigated.
Also, Derrick floats… a lot, so for large chunks of time while he’s out there, he’s not impacting the game more than Hinrich on the offensive end. Derrick’s also not really that efficient offensively because he can’t shoot the 3, and Kirk can. Derrick will be better than Kirk eventually, and is certainly more talented already, but it’s not entirely clear to me that when you add in defense to the equation that Derrick isn’t the worst of the three guards in our rotation, for this year anyway. I fully expect Derrick to be everything we hope, but right now, he’s rubbish on defense and up and down on offense. Some games he’s completely brilliant, and other games he takes 25 shots to score 23 points and grabs 2 rebounds. He’s got plenty of work to do.
Stats with contextual observations, good. Stats with no context, bad. Anecdotal observations unsupported by data, the worst.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 1, 2009 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Heh, I should have mentioned you included the caveat, so as to appear a bit less dickish
But on the whole, I agree with your conclusions.
Looking at the bigger numbers and the trends though, I come away with the basic thoughts that:
1. There’s some hope for the argument that Kirk can still be a starter on a good team. The team has functioned fairly well (over about 6 games worth of data) with the Kirk-Ben backcourt. Use these numbers when selling him to Minnesota and Portland!
2. If we discount for the early season suckitude likely biasing the Derrick-Ben backcourt, it’s seemes that that the RG (about 30 games of data) and RH (about 4 games of data) backcourts have performed relatively close. But obviously a 30 game stretch is a more solid basis of comparison than a 4 game stretch.
3. If we look at recent (post trade) performance, our sample sizes get down into single-game territory, but the main thing that comes across is how far Rose has to go. To give a little bit more depth, I summed up the various backcourts when playing with those three frontcourt lineups I broke out. Interestingly, each of the three backcourts has played about the same minutes with those three frontcourt lineups, so if you add them up, you get about 124 minutes played for each of them. That’s about 2.6 full games.
That is, it’s still a very small sample, but it’s over a very similar timeframe.
L G PF PA Net RH 2.6 99.2 106.5 (7.3) RG 2.6 100.1 100.5 (0.4) HG 2.6 113.4 100.4 13.0
by Sports2 on Apr 2, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I didn't think it was dickish, just sort of saying that I didn't mean for the use of
advanced stats to be some sort of definitive documentation of who is better or worse. It was meant to be a starting point for the discussion, like I said. I think, even with the caveats about small sample size, the numbers can tell us a little bit. The rest is for our own eyes to fill out.
If the numbers don’t back up what our eyes are telling us, then maybe we re-evaluate our observations a bit, or maybe we chalk it up to small sample size and wait and see.
I think that the numbers here, though, can be explained with supplemental observation from those of us that have watched just about every game the Bulls have played this year. Derrick is lousy at defense. Everyone can see that. Ben is not good at defense, but not as lousy as Derrick, and Ben is a bit better on offense than Derrick. Kirk is a lot better on defense than Derrick and probably not that significant a dropoff on offense, because of Derrick’s tendency to defer for long periods of time and his relative inefficiency scoring the ball (again going to his inability to shoot the 3 and inability to get to the line). So, it would make sense that Kirk + Ben lineups would be better than Derrick + Ben lineups or Derrick + Kirk lineups. That’s before we even get into the experience effects that are likely present for Kirk and Ben of playing together for so long, whereas Derrick had to get used to Kirk and Ben, and vice versa.
I think this is useful discussion, and sort of illustrates what’s been my point about Derrick for a while now. He’s supremely talented, and he’s shown flashes of being absolutely dominant already, but he’s got plenty of areas to get better at. His defense (and I’m happy to hear he’s acknowledged this as his most important area for offseason work) has a long way to go, just to get him to breaking even. He’s got to get better at shooting the 3 ball (he started out shooting it well, but has dropped off dramatically).
He’s got to get better at drawing fouls – though, I’ve seen him get absolutely clobbered too many times this year to think that he won’t start getting calls eventually. His game is predicated on getting to the basket, so he should be getting to the line. Some of it is Derrick not getting calls, and another part of it is Derrick being so skilled at contorting his body to avoid contact that a lot of plays where you’d think he’d get a call, he wriggles around the defender for an easier shot, but subsequently avoids the contact that would land him at the line. I’ve seen him a number of times do this, and get off a slightly better shot, but still miss the shot and he doesn’t get the call, so it’s all for naught.
I know this is a “Hinrich post”, but to me, any time you talk about Kirk, it has to come back to discussing Derrick, because Derrick is the reason why Kirk is expendable, and why we can’t afford to pay Kirk – as good as he is – $10 million a year. Hopefully, we can trade him for some sort of value, but even if it’s just expiring contracts, it might be addition by subtraction just because we’d be freed up to get talent at some of our other positions that need help much more than the PG position, which is set for the foreseeable future.
Stats with contextual observations, good. Stats with no context, bad. Anecdotal observations unsupported by data, the worst.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 2, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with your conclusion on Hinrich vs. Rose. Hinrich is clearly better at the moment
But that does nothing to change my opinion that Kirk ought to be traded to make room for Derrick.
I do find it very interesting that these (very small) samples, on the whole, don’t seem to reflect the offense vs. defense trade-off between Ben and Kirk we typically imagine.
Taking the overall numbers and breaking them down into gamesize chunks (48 minutes), we get
L G PF PA Net/48
RG 29.5 100.0 102.7 (2.7)
RH 3.9 99.8 99.5 0.3
HG 5.7 111.5 96.0 15.6
And then in our more recent sample:
L G PF PA Net
RH 2.6 99.2 106.5 (7.3)
RG 2.6 100.1 100.5 (0.4)
HG 2.6 113.4 100.4 13.0
Holding Rose constant, one would think the the Gordon lineup would give us more offense and worse defense than the Hinrich lineup, but the opposite appeared to be the case.
Interesting, but I’m chalking it up to small sample size and the crumminess of the frontcourt earlier in the season. I suppose my baseline assumption is that improving team defensive performance is much more dependent on frontcourt changes and Rose’s growth, while improving team offense can come with increased experience and better coaching schemes (which, as you say, is why we see such better production with the seasons HG pair).
by Sports2 on Apr 2, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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