Bulls are in the Playoffs, Say Most Recent Hollinger's Playoff Odds
Today must be the day we thank our lucky stars that all of those problematic personalities from '07-'08 are gone--Wallace, Hughes, and Skiles. And that other guy, Skiles' assistant. I've already posted another fanshot about Wallace and mentioning Hughes. And now this.
Hollinger's odds have the Bulls making it and the Bucks not making it, and it doesn't seem close (67.6% to 46.9%). The thought of this team making the playoffs and Skiles and that one assistant guy missing out makes me happy.
almost 3 years ago
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For some reason I really don't have any ill will towards Skiles
In fact I kinda root for him when it doesn’t affect the Bulls (which in this case it obviously does). Luol Deng should probably be shoveling his driveway right now, Skiles’ system definitely played to his strengths. I think Skiles was more a victim of his own success, the whole organization was for that matter. As for the “assistant guy”, well that’s a different story…
"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro
I used to not have any ill will either, in fact, I really gave him the benefit of the doubt.
But the more I heard about his departure the more it pissed me off. Per the various media stories linked to on here, Skiles in a sense “figured out” that his team was not going to win anymore than it already had, so he went to management and asked them to change the personnel.
When they didn’t, he told the team to fire him. And while he waited for them to do so, he essentially quit on his team, and the fans. He did this knowing full well that in this business fired coaches get paid the full amounts of their contracts.
And quite honestly, the other thing that really annoyed me was that hilarious podcast (Bullsbeat?) about Skiles cowering and hiding from Ben Wallace, reprimanding the team when Wallace wasn’t around and then conveniently shifting the topic when Wallace walked into team meetings. The dysfunction wasn’t all his fault, but for the guy who made his name in part by not backing down from Shaq, it’s sad that he couldn’t speak openly to the team’s petulant $16 Million rebounder.
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
when did skiles dealt with shaq?
back in orlando?
when they were on the same team
in orlando yea….
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
I had no idea
That that was how the skiles departure went down.
Interesting — thanks for the info.
Who was the source from that podcast?
"Remember, I'm Italian".
More beautiful is seeing Raptors in 2nd to last.
Can you say draft day trade?
Chicago Bulls Blog and Forums. NBA Power Rankings.
Very true
Although, how much does that Raptor team have to suck before you start to question Bosh’s abilities a bit. I know he’s a great player and I would be thrilled to have him, but it’s not like he’s playing with total crap over there. You’d think a star of his caliber would be able to keep that team respectable at the very least.
"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 3, 2009 12:36 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, looks like he has already checked out...
Not the best sign to potential suitors.
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
I remember a Garnett guy on team's that absolutely sucked.
I’m not worried.
Putting together a little Bosh with Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon seems like a good idea to me.
The draft is a good time to deal. Rose is already assumed off limits and they can’t demand Ben Gordon back, so as long as we’re willing to commit financially to Ben Gordon, we will retain our best two players while gaining Chris Bosh.
Chicago Bulls Blog and Forums. NBA Power Rankings.
Yet Garnett had some really great early years, playoff runs, etc and also won the league MVP on Minny
Bosh pales in any type of comparisons…
man up!
To one of the 3 or 4 best players in the league?
I think about 95% of it pales in comparison
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
What worries
me is when Shaq has no respect for Bosh and is calling him the Rupaul of basketball. Saying Bosh cries to much. If Shaq is getting on you for being soft then you must be soft.
"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."
- fundamentallysound
Shaq also called out Kareem Abdul Jabbar (how does my ass taste?)
and we all know he stunk.
Maybe we can (but probably not)?
by Granny Waiters on Mar 3, 2009 8:42 AM CST up reply actions
well Kareem was a ninny.
he was an exceptionally talented ninny, but a ninny nonetheless.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
A ninny on the basketball floor.
If Kareem was allowed to use what he learned from Bruce Lee, then Shaq might feel differently.
please, don't you know about Shaq-Fu?!
(sarcasm).
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 3:41 PM CST up reply actions
The few articles by Kareem that I have read
indicate he has about twice the IQ of Shaq.
Kareem may have shot himself in the foot with his personality when playing, but that hardly makes him a ninny.
Maybe we can (but probably not)?
by Granny Waiters on Mar 3, 2009 11:08 PM CST up reply actions
That's standard smack-talk.
It seems like a few guys are friends and will never talk smack about one another in the press. And then there’s everyone else. To Shaq, Bosh is part of everyone else.
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
He should know about being soft
Shaq’s the baby who never bothers to come to training camp in shape, nor did he try at all in Miami after they won the title. Remember “I got hurt on company time, I’ll heal on company time.”
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 3, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
You forget that Shaq has some Big kids
and in the off season he has to care and tend to them. I wish this on no man.
"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."
- fundamentallysound
Any thoughts on why the Raptors are so bad this year?
Their big three (Bosh, Calderon, Moon) have ORtg minus DRtg differences of +4, +10, +9 this year, and their PERs and TS% all look good too. Throw in that Bargnani, Graham, Parker, and O’Neal have all been servicable, and I can’t figure out where all these losses have come from.
you can't just subtract ORtg from DRtg
because DRtg assumes each player is responsible for 20% of the defense while he’s on the floor, which is not true. Also ORtg is tied directly to Usg. For instance, Jo Noah’s 120 ORtg looks fantastic until you account for the fact that he only uses 14 of possessions, thus forcing his teammates to take on a greater burden of possessions and thereby reduce their efficiency. Check this study out here. It explains the nitty-gritty details of the tradeoff between usage and efficiency (as measured by ORtg). Cliff’s Notes version: on average, for increase of 1% in USG (i.e. from 20% to 21) there is a corresponding drop in ORtg of 1.25 points. This relationship is non-linear and that’s an average number, but the point is that it is a tangible effect. Some people suggested standardizing ORtg to a hypothetical ORtg where everyone uses 20 of possessions with the 1.25 co-efficient representing the trade off and then subtracting that ORtg from DRtg (which is also, by definition, assumed to represent 20% of all defensive possessions). For instance, assuming that the 1.25 co-efficient is valid for him (it might be greater or lesser depending on the player) then Jose Calderon’s 123 ORtg on 17% of possessions suddenly looks more like 119. Subtracting his DRtg from that you get (119-113) +6. Which is still pretty good, but not nearly as good as the +10 he would have before this adjustment. The problem with Jamario Moon is even more greatly pronounced as with him he had a 116 ORtg, but only used 13% of possessions. So standardizing that to 20% of possessions you get an ORtg that looks like 107 points per 100 possessions. 107 – 107 (his DRtg in TOR this year) = 0. So all of a sudden Moon doesn’t look so hot either. This analysis makes Bosh (a high usage, high efficiency player) look much better. He’s got a 113 ORtg on 27% of possessions. Standardizing to 20% of possessions gets you to an ORtg of 122. Subtract his DRtg (109) and you get +13. I think if you applied this analysis to many of the bench players (typically low usage guys), you’d find them to be fairly lacking.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
14% of possessions*
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions
I've got BAP, I haven't gotten to the Rtg appendix yet
I’ll check it out. Gut feeling though is that I disagree with the part on usage. Just because Calderon doesn’t shoot much doesn’t mean he’s not contributing his 20% or more to that offense.
And as for Joakim, doesn’t that make his Rtgs really impressive? Yeah he ‘uses’ 14% of his possessions, but he’s obviously making a big impact with his offensive rebounding and decent passing, maybe it’s not 20% but it’s closer. And defensively, with the amount of opponent shots attempted inside, I’d expect his % to be well over 20%.
you're not understanding what usage actually measures
it measures the percentage of possessions used. The impact is measured by ORtg (it’s pretty all encompassing), and Usage is more about how much you have the ball. For instance, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, LeBron, etc. all have the ball a LOT, thus they have high usage %.
Also, I agree that Noah’s DRtg probably understates his impact, but that’s the point I was trying to make, DRtg is standardized to 20% of all contributions made on defense while the player is on the floor. So if Noah is doing a lot on defense, but he’s on the floor with terrible defenders all the time, then his DRtg will suffer due to that standardization that is inherent in DRtg.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions
to be more explicit about it
I’ll quote someone else who has discussed what constitutes an individual using a possession:
The starting point is individual possessions, which is a measure of how many possessions and individual is responsible for using over the course of a game. Scoring a basket alone, or missing a shot, does not make an individual wholly responsible for that possession – the made hoop may come off of an assist or offensive rebound, and the missed shot may be the second shot in a possession or may result in an offensive rebound. Only turnovers are fully weighted against a player (on the theory that nothing in a box score can cause a turnover except one player turning the ball over – obviously in practice, two players can contribute to a turnover, but the scorekeeper only records it against one person, so there’s no way to capture the contribution of the unrecorded action. This is one of those things that almost certainly evens itself out over the course of a season, and even if it doesn’t, there’s not a whole lot that can be done about it). As for all other outcomes, there are "parts" – on the good side of the ledger, there is a made field goal part, an assist part, a made free throw part, and an offensive rebound part; on the bad side, a missed field goal part, a missed free throw part, and a turnover part (which, as noted above, is simply the number of turnovers committed by the player). The sum total of these parts is the number of possessions an individual uses.
Another place to read up on how these ratings are calculated and why they are calculated the way they are is by reading HERE . Dean Oliver, author of BoP, wrote that article explaining DRtg and ORtg.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 5:06 PM CST up reply actions
also, no Joakim's low usage doesn't make his high ORtg more impressive it makes it less so.
This should be intuitive. Usage basically at it’s base measures possessions used. ORtg is points produced per possession. So the idea is if you forced Joakim to use more possessions, his ability to produce points is in some degree fixed. Representing it as an equation might make it more clear. Usg = Possessions (roughly speaking). ORtg = Points produced / possessions. So if we increase the denominator (possessions used aka usage %) then ORtg will be decreased.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions
What it says is that Noah's high ORtg is due to his taking mostly high
percentage shots. This shows good judgment on Noah’s part, as he plays within his abilities.
What Noah’s high ORtg does not show is a high level of offensive skill.
“Impressive” or not is dependent on which way you look at it.
Maybe we can (but probably not)?
by Granny Waiters on Mar 3, 2009 11:15 PM CST up reply actions
All you stats.. guys.. Same reason Bulls lose when they should win games...
Raptors and Bulls every night are totally unmatched by opponents Coaches.
Bulls and Raptors coaching stinks… No defense. No real offense. These team were better with Mitchell and Skiles who both are light years better than the current coaches…
man up!
... this ... is .... uh.... a.... really... annoying... way... of ... posting.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions
Hmmm we used to be 7th over detroit and now we are 8th?
fuck detroit for being detroit again. shit
Derrick Rose got Freakin Skillz. When are we going to add a 7th championship?
by broseleay301 on Mar 3, 2009 3:30 AM CST reply actions
yeah AI going down really hurts our chances for that 7 seed. The Pistons seem galvanized in his absence.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 3, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
were projected to go 40-42 though
and the three teams ahead of us are all projected to go 41-41. if this team could ever string some of these good games together— and win on the freaking road for once— there is a realistic shot that we could waltz our way into the 6th or 5th seed.
the game against the bucks later this week is huge as well; if we win that i really dont see us missing the playoffs because we’d then have the tiebreaker with milwaukee. couple that with our relatively easy remaining schedule and the fact that the bucks have so many guys out with injury and at the very least the 8 seed should be ours. personally, i’m still gunning for the 6; beating out the bucks sans redd and bogut is nothing to write home about.
On paper we should make the playoffs
two factors working against this: the coach and no player with vocal leadership who can back it up on the court by example?
Derrick will later fill this role, but he’ a rookie and hasn’t yet stepped up to this challenge , not wanting to offend veterans, probably still adjusting to NBA lifestyle,etc. Our current captains are a joke, regardless if they were chosen by the other players. But, they were Paxson favorites so the other players chose them also.
Yet, in Kirk and Luol defense, the Bulls didn’t have much to choose for leadership positions. (other than Duhon when he was here and believed in the bulls..not later after he had given up on his future with the Bulls to attend a Duke game)
In retrospect, over the last two years I would have preferred Gordon being a team captain just to challenge him since he has shown more capacity to compete. Although, his post game “lose games” comments are so lame… “sometimes we play well and sometimes we don’t come to play”
man up!
These playoff odds are going to change every week
There is a good group of 5 teams that can fall anywhere between 6 and 8. The records are so close in comparison. Hopefully our “easy” schedule helps us out.
"I guess I can’t do anything if you’re just irrational, but to point it out and move on."
- fundamentallysound
How much can we believe in Hollinger's odds?
It’s that I just don’t see how Miami can fall so much, when they have Wade playing so great…
probably has to do with strength of schedule
they do have a few big games left including 2 @ boston and 1 @ cleveland. they are only 11-17 on the road and have more road games left.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
by Jaina on Mar 3, 2009 9:09 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, you're right
That must be it. But don’t forget that we still have to face the Celtics, the Lakers, the Hornets and go to Orlando. So, it won’t be easy to us also. Plus: we already proved that we can loose to bad teams, like Oklahoma. It’s nice to see that people believe in our team, but I prefer to wait and see and don’t give to much attention to this
orlando stinks without jameer
and the hornets at home doesnt scare me much either.
Well, I don't know that
Their record is still 7-5 since Jameer got hurt. So, be carefull when you say that they stink. They’re worst, yes, but they still have Howard, Lewis and Turkoglu. As for the Hornets games, since Rose D is not great right now, I fear Paul will eat him alive. We won in New Orleans, but Paul didn’t played that game
stink may have been a tad strong
it’s just they were so good earlier this year with him, and now they’re an average to above average team without him. and while i agree that paul will probably have a big game against us, that says nothing for what the rest of his team will do. the hornets don’t scare me at all, although they are playing better of late.
hollinger's odds
are all based on formulas anyway. it’ s not him showing faith in our team or something. he factors in things such as strength of schedule as well as point differential etc etc. they basically run simulations and order the teams where they fall the most.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
Look at the Bulls last 12 games...
…here. Every game after the Lakers is certainly winnable. They should, if a “true” playoff team, win nine games to end the season.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
When I saw that schedule, I believed we could win a lot of games to
My lack of faith is related to some losses that we had, like the ones in Washington or Indiana. We never know what to expect from this team and his dumb rookie coach. He already proved that he can kill momentums and loose game easily
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