"Outliers" and the Development of Champions
Interesting article discussing the development of championship teams and championship players, focusing by way of reference on the experience-based theories in the book Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.
about 3 years ago
arjoseph
22 comments
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so the first major thing i take away from this is
with how much of a gym rat ben is he should hit his peak very soon
if that 10000 hrs thing is correct, he could reach greatness and decline before the rest of the team has a chance at peaking
kinda interesting, i think i might pick that book up when i get a chance
"we dont need a total rebuild, we just have a coach that is trying to fit the sqaure pegs in the round holes, players do well if you set the up to succeed, not try to mold them into a system designed for another team"
I doubt he would decline sooner, he just might reach his peak sooner than most.
Players don’t decline because there’s some sort of set length that players can be great, they usually decline because of their age.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 18, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Picking up the book
I suspect you will be quite surprised. It’s something like “Freakonomics” if you’ve read that. Unconventional expanations as to why things happened.
something like it...
“Tipping Point” is a LOT like Freakonomics. I found both “Blink” and “Outliers” a bit more dry, honestly. Not bad, just not nearly as engaging as Freakonomics is.
Asked what kind of player he expects to be in the next five years, he said: "Not a star, but like, a superstar. Something around, like, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, something like that."
good point
so thomas might be a bust
he started playing later n life than most
by the time he could get to greatness, he will loose the elite physical abilities that could set him apart from the rest
"we dont need a total rebuild, we just have a coach that is trying to fit the sqaure pegs in the round holes, players do well if you set the up to succeed, not try to mold them into a system designed for another team"
the book doesn't really work
I like Gladwell when he can focus on one subject in an article and really pick it apart but the books he writes always try to prove an overarching thesis with loose anecdotes- Freakonomics is a good comparison. You can apply the pseudo conclusion of the book to any subject whether it be basketball or the computer bubble.
Sure, professional basketball players work tirelessly on their games and become great. Holy shit balls, i’ve never thought of it that way.
by lampnasty on Mar 19, 2009 12:16 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I thought this article was shit
The Celtics won because they were the Celtics and because they had a good mix of veterans and youth? So it had nothing to do with their having three superstars, which caused everybody pick them as preseason favorites?
I think the point is that
while granted they were clearly a good team on paper, they were only a 52 win win team on paper. That was the ‘stats’ side of the story. What propelled them to be so great and win an additional 14 games were those other factors.
Asked what kind of player he expects to be in the next five years, he said: "Not a star, but like, a superstar. Something around, like, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, something like that."
They were a 52 win team based on WoW, big deal
Computer standings projections are always off – baseballprospectus used their famed PECOTA system to project last season’s standings… and were off by 8.5 games per team on average. So if they said the White Sox would win 81 games, you could be fairly certain the White Sox would win between 72 and 90 games! Hey hey!
Part of that reason is projection systems can’t account for health factors, so they take a conservative guess. The Celtics were healthy last year – their starting five played an average of 75 games. Second, Rondo and Perkins made big leaps, something that no projection could account for. You can say it’s culture, I can say they were two first round picks still in their early 20s, and culture or no culture they would’ve improved.
You're partly missing the "luck of timing" part. (I think there were 3 total points Adande was making).
I mean, if McHale had reached a tipping point with Garnett a year earlier, he goes to the Bulls and Jefferson hasn’t proven himself enough to compare to their package. Possibly the same with Ray Allen and the cheap-o Seattle crew.
Boston got desperate because Pierce was getting antzy and they traded for an above-average but nothing special Ray Allen to go alongside him. Without Garnett, that’s a crap move. They then got a favor from a friend who was finally desperate enough himself to let Garnett leave.
And then, of course, is the fact that Tom Thibadeau-who may or may not be as important as those two but definitely important-happened to be available to build a defensive scheme that worked excellently.
But anyway… holy use of selective statistics J.A. on the ‘age of champions’ chart. criminy!
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
Just another example of mainstream NBA reporters who act like it's a one or the other thing
It’s funny because Danny Ainge has always been a huge proponent of using advanced stats in evaluating players, and Daryl Morey got his start in Boston.
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 19, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Did Adande say "it had nothing to do with their having three superstars"?
I missed that line in the article I guess.
Instead, I think the premise was: real basketball teams aren’t like fantasy teams. It’s not like Step 1: throw good players on the court; Step 2: ?; Step 3: championship! Step 2 actually turns out to be crucial, and it’s a largely psychological/developmental thing. Or put another way: talent doesn’t win championships alone.
Or maybe another way: their “superstar” status wasn’t just about their physical talent or stat production, but was about their drive/psychology/personality as well (the point about Pierce “knowing what to do” because he was raised in winning traditions). To say “they had three superstars” already presupposes the larger point of what makes a championship-level superstar.
Even with that, though, being part of a culture heightens one’s ability and reinforces one’s resolve. Why do you think morale is so important in a military? Why do the Marines inculcate such a feeling of superiority and pride in the organization? If you remember when the Celtics won last year, all Paul Pierce could talk about was his place in Celtics history, in winning for such a storied franchise (and probably thinking about his own jersey hanging in the Garden some day), in appologizing for all the losing, in returning the Celtics to their “rightful place.” That wasn’t just cliche. In a tough moment (like, say, the Atlanta series?), the thought of “we’re the Celtics, we don’t lose to teams like the Hawks” figured in. It had to. If that thought were “we’re the Grizzlies,” the predicate would be a bit different, don’t you think?
From the Bulls’ perspective, this cuts both ways. For the entirety of the 90s, we were on top. That’s a tradition to be proud of, and an organizational ethos that can be employed. However, lots of that gets pinned on “Jordan” or “Phil” or “Scottie” and not “the Bulls,” which cuts the other way. Furthermore, the most successful teams in the league have an identifiable identity. They have plans, and they get players to buy into it and it’s constant. That was Phil’s great talent as a coach. That’s D’Antoni’s great talent. That’s the success of the Spurs. It’s why guys like Skiles and Larry Brown can come in and shape up a wayward team in short time. And it’s one of the things that’s missing with the Bulls right now: people don’t know what the plan is. We don’t have an ethos. There’s nothing to believe in beyond the bare-bones objective of playing well and winning, because winning is better than losing. That only takes you so far. Success breeds success, and success comes from an expectation of success, a belief in its possibility, belief that there’s no other option.
by arjoseph on Mar 19, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree
(the point about Pierce "knowing what to do" because he was raised in winning traditions).
Dwyane Wade went to Marquette and the Miami Heat (two teams without championship cultures) and didn’t win a title at the high school or collegiate levels, yet had one of the greatest playoff runs in history. Antoine Walker went to a premiere college program and played many years on the Celtics, but he’s always sucked in the playoffs and nearly ruined Miami’s title with a 10.6 PER and .488 TS% in the playoffs.
the thought of "we’re the Celtics, we don’t lose to teams like the Hawks" figured in
Funny how “we’re the Celtics, we don’t go 24-58 in the regular season” didn’t figure into Pierce’s head a year before.
Furthermore, the most successful teams in the league have an identifiable identity.
Or the most successful teams in the league have the best players. They build an identity by winning a certain way time after time after time. You don’t develop an identity from being mediocre and then BOOM you have a complete identity and you’re awesome.
I’m not disagreeing that sociological factors play a part. But that’s more about maximizing the abilities of the talent that’s already there. Pierce didn’t win a title in his first 10 years in the league because his teams weren’t talented. You get talent first, then you can start worrying about culture and identity. John Paxson’s been trying to do it backwards since day one and we’ve sucked.
We probably agree more than disagree, I guess.
The disagreement centers on your last two sentences, I think. First of all, we haven’t “sucked” from day one of Paxson’s tenure. We sucked last year, and we have sucked for most of this year, but the years before that we were actually playing good basketball, and I’d argue that we were perhaps playing above our talent level. The difference between the early years and these past two haven’t been based on personnel, either, which I think is telling. I disagree with your argument that the “sociological factors” are merely a gloss on top of talent; that you go talent shopping, align your ducks, then add a coat of sociology. But at base, I think we agree that talent and the “other stuff” are in some type of balance, and that you can’t reach the ultimate levels without both. We just disagree on the relative importance of the two (we both think that talent is the more important of the two, but I value the “other stuff” more than you do).
The disagreement also stems from the way you keep setting up straw men. Nobody said every champion had to come from a winning background (or rather, to address your specific examples, that every player from a championship team needs to come from a winner). You act as if all trends or rules must be devoid of exceptions, or must apply in every case, which is a pretty narrow view. I also like how your lone examples were from the consensus weakest NBA champion in modern memory, whose overall roster was less talented than their opponent, and who is a horrible example for your “the most successful teams have the best players” hypothesis (with not a single league leader in rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, points, offensive rating, defensive rating, 3-point shooting, or free throw percentage; Shaq did lead the league in FG%, and Dwyane was in the top 5 in FT attempts and PER, but he was also top 5 in turnovers).
What the Heat are good examples of (like the Celtics of yesteryear) is the “good mix of veterans and youth” which you deride in your initial post, depending on the veteran saavy of Payton, Zo, Shaq and Posey (combined with the youth of D-Wade and Haslem) to counter the overall greater athleticism (and relative youth) of the Mavs. The Mavs lost that series not because of a lack of talent, but because of a lack of mental toughness (something the Heat had because their veteran players had learned it on previous winning squads and because of the tough ethos that all Pat Riley teams have). And because D-Wade drew a foul whenever anyone sneezed near him.
You act as if all trends or rules must be devoid of exceptions, or must apply in every case
I’m just asking for a trend or rule that applies in the majority of cases. That’s it.
Shaq didn’t win a championship at LSU and he’s won 4 titles. Duncan didn’t win a championship at Wake Forest and he’s won 4 titles. I don’t think either college has ever won a championship. Olajuwon didn’t win a championship at Houston and he won 2 titles. Billups went to Colorado and put the Pistons on his back.
It’s easy to look at Pierce and Michael Jordan and think “one plays for the Celtics, the other won a title at North Carolina… two prestigeous programs, hmmm” but beyond that there’s no evidence. The Celtics have been terrible for the past decade, the Bulls have been even worse since Jordan left. Every time you hear the Chicago Bears signing a free agent, it’s because of “”http://www.chicagobears.com/news/NewsStory.asp?STORY_ID=5647" >the tradition of the team", except the Bears haven’t won in 23 years, so tradition hasn’t mattered.
The Haet didn’t have a great roster top-to-bottom, but they had a legit superstar in Wade and a damn good #2 in Shaq. Every championship team since the Jordan era has been led by a superstar, surefire hall-of-famer besides the Pistons in 2004. If you want to say the Pistons culture and defensive identity helped them win the title, fine. But that’s 1 time that’s happened in the last 18 years, the other 17 have been led by supreme talent.
Wow, another straw man.
Nowhere has anyone said that a champion doesn’t need talent (in fact, I’ve already agreed with you on that point), nor has anyone argued that a championship team doesn’t need a superstar. You are correct that great teams have great players. That’s not an earth-shattering point.
As to the rule vs. exception dispute we have concerning experience:
Since 1980, the only champions with no previous NBA winners on their roster were the 1981 Celtics, the 1983 76ers, the 1989 Pistons, the 1991 Bulls and the 1994 Rockets. But those teams all had players who had won championships or at least been to the Final Four in college or had been to the Finals before (Bird on the Celtics; Bobby Jones, Julius Erving and Moses Malone on the Sixers; Isiah Thomas and Mark Aguirre on the Pistons; Michael Jordan and Stacey King on the Bulls; Hakeem Olajuwon on the Rockets).
To expound upon the first sentence of the quote a bit more, that’s 23/28 championship teams with prior champs on the roster. If you want to quibble and take out teams that won multiple championships with substantially the same roster (arguing maybe that it’s invalid, although championship experience is championship experience however you slice it), you still get 6/11 unique team rosters with previous champs, which is closer, but is still “most.” And that doesn’t even figure in college experience (which Adande does).
do you think that this is the stuff Paxson was looking for when he picks guys
like Noah (NCAA championship), Tyrus (Final 4 berth where he was the dominant player in the tournament), Derrick Rose (runner-up with Memphis), Gordon (NCAA championship), Hinrich (went to the Championship game), Deng and Duhon (Final Four appearance, lost to eventual champion Ben Gordon & UCONN by 1 point), etc.? It’s become sort of a joke around here that Paxson only watches the tournament and then picks a region or the tournament’s MOP award winners, but it might be that he actually buys into this sort of stuff, and thus far, it hasn’t worked. He also brought in Ben Wallace who won a championship with Detroit, and that didn’t turn out well either.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Mar 20, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
There's no straw man here
Your point:
Nobody said every champion had to come from a winning background (or rather, to address your specific examples, that every player from a championship team needs to come from a winner).
And then I said “I’m just asking for a trend or rule that applies in the majority of cases” and then gave you Shaq, Duncan, Olajuwon, Billups – who account for every championship since 1994 besides Jordan’s Bulls and last year’s Celtics – and explained that all of them neither won a NCAA title nor played for a legendary college program.
Your “Since 1980, the only champions with no previous NBA winners on their roster” quote is lame. Great, the Spurs and Lakers championship teams had Robert Horry and his 7.6ppg career average in the playoffs! And the 2004 Pistons had Lindsey Hunter! Frankly, I’m surprised any NBA team doesn’t have a former champion on their roster. (The Bulls managed to snag Lindsey this year!) Somehow I don’t think Robert Horry and Lindsey Hunter were what put the Spurs, Lakers, and Pistons over the hump.
you still get 6/11 unique team rosters with previous champs, which is closer, but is still "most."
Really, so if it were 5/11 your point would be shot, but since it’s 6/11 it still holds?
You gave me one player from each of those teams, i.e. you ignored the rest of those teams’ rosters. Neither the article nor I have said that the best player, or most visible player, has to have won a championship in either college or the NBA before. The premise of the article (and my comments about it) have always been broader in scope than that — that a team needs to have a certain makeup, and that makeup includes significant guys from winning traditions and a mix of youthful talent with veteran experience. Thus the “straw man” accusation — you’ve been “refuting” arguments that haven’t been made, either by the article or me.
I’m thinking the Spurs and Lakers teams value Robert Horry a lot more than you do, and for good reason. He was a significant contributor on those teams, and will be remembered as one of the best playoff role players ever. It’s not unthinkable that the Spurs and Lakers don’t win those series without Horry.
As for 5/11 vs. 6/11, you said "I’m just asking for a trend or rule that applies in the majority of cases." So what you actually meant was some type of super-majority, I guess, if you aren’t impressed with an actual majority. Plus, the 6/11 was the fall-back position; 23/28 was the actual ratio, which you ignored.
6/11 isn't a majority
It’s random. You flip a coin 11 times and you can mathematically expect it to land heads 6 times. And I’m looking for a supermajority because I’m looking for something statistically significant. I could say 6/11 past championship teams had a leading scorer that was a center, but that’s completely worthless it’s not significant.
The Robert Horry/Lindsey Hunter part is a joke. The Celtics’ prior champion was James Posey. Honestly. If you’d like to write an articles saying “Do you know what the great Kings and Nets teams of the early 2000s and the Suns and Mavs teams of the mid-2000s were missing? James Posey!” I’d say go for it but you’d have to be one hell of a writer (Malcolm Gladwell) to make it at all convincing. 6/11 isn’t supporting your case much.
I like that last part; it's like the "chemistry" thing.
“That team won because they had chemistry.”
No, that team had chemistry because it won. A team that is losing but jokes around and has a good time is often called a bunch of jack asses, or Ben Wallaces.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!













