Inconsistency: A few stats on our unpredictable team.

by Diz on Mar 18, 2009 12:03 AM CDT

With wins against three of the five top teams in the league, and losses against three of the five worst teams in the league, many of us don't know what to make of the Bulls this year. Unpredictable is an understatement. It seems as though, lately, we've been winning against all of our "top tier" opponents, and losing against our "easy" opponents. Just how does this trend play out across the full season?

What follows are calculations of our record in various situations across the season to date:

Overall Record: .456

Home Record: .656

Away Record: .278

Overtime Record: .250

Close Games (Absolute Margin <= 10): .432

Blowouts (Absolute Margin > 10): .484

Against Teams w/ Winning Record (including .500 teams): .359

Against Teams w/ Losing Record: .586

At Home Against Winning Teams: .556

At Home Against Losing Teams: .786

Away Against Winning Teams: .190

Away Against Losing Teams: .400

This isn't rocket science, and for the most part everything follows in line with expectations. That said, it is astounding to me that the Bulls' record against winning teams at home is nearly THREE TIMES that of our away record against winning teams!! Additionally, our record in close games is notably worse than non-close games (and my guess is that this differential should actually be higher as many of our "close wins" are actually blowouts in which we nearly relinquished the lead).

If the average age of the team was 28, this would be extremely troubling, but we are one of the youngest (if not the youngest?) team in the league. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are significantly better at home, and that we can't quite close out close games. With better coaching (from Vinny or his potential replacement), more playing time for our young guys, and improved cohesion as the newly reorganized team learns to play together, I expect our record to significantly improve next year. The good news is that we are most definitely getting it done at home. Hopefully the away record will follow in due time.

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Also, would be interesting to compare these stats to various other teams, but...

…don’t have the time to manually enter all of this data. Let me know if there’s an easier way to find these numbers or find the data in electronic form.

by Diz on Mar 18, 2009 12:05 AM CDT reply actions

Losing Teams*

fixed.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Mar 18, 2009 12:17 AM CDT reply actions

Hah. Good call!

by Diz on Mar 18, 2009 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions

"That said, it is astounding to me that the Bulls' record against winning teams at home is nearly THREE TIMES that of our away record against winning teams!! "

Same with the Blazers, well…..not the surprising part.

As for the Bulls: 3.57 (avg years exp) 25.41 (avg age)
NBA Average: 4.74 26.81
Youngest team is the Warriors: 2.93 24.19

Avg age and exp is a good indicator of how young a team is, but I prefer age of playing rotation.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 18, 2009 1:19 AM CDT reply actions

The Bulls got older at the trade deadline:

Salmons (29) > Thabo (24)
TiThomas (32) > Nocioni (29)
Miller (32) > Hughes (30) & Simmons (23)

The core is still very young, though, with Rose (20), Gordon (25), Deng (23), Thomas (22) and Noah (24).

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Mar 18, 2009 8:57 AM CDT reply actions

Are the Bulls any more unpredictable than other teams?

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=576

What of Justin’s beloved Bulls? Even when we adjust for quality of competition, Chicago still doesn’t rank as one of the league’s most inconsistent teams. Their schedule-adjusted deviation, 11.8, ranks the Bulls as more inconsistent than average but still just ninth in the league. Is Justin crazy? Actually, the evidence backs up his theory when you take a closer look.

For whatever reason, in terms of consistency, there have been two different Chicago squads this season. From the start of the season through Dec. 27, the Bulls were very consistent. 26 of their 30 games were within 10 points either direction of what we would expect based on the opposition and location. Over the next 30 games, Chicago went the other direction. Just 13 of their subsequent 30 games have been within 10 points of expectation, half the number as before. If we look strictly at this portion of the schedule, the Bulls’ schedule-adjusted deviation is 13.8, which would rank them third in the league behind New Jersey and the L.A. Clippers.

Chicago’s schedule-adjusted point differential in the last 30 games (-0.6) is only slightly better than over the first 30 games (-1.2). With a near-.500 team, consistency isn’t a big factor in determining a team’s record. So the Bulls haven’t really benefited or been hurt from their tendency to defy expectations. All they’ve really done is drive Justin and his fellow fans crazy. So maybe the corresponding term for inconsistency in the NBA ought to be the “Spears Factor.” Catchy, huh?

It’s a few weeks old, but the conclusions seem to hold.

by poster on Mar 18, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions

this doesn’t have anything to do with the topic, but i just noticed that the basic icon (the guy with his mouth open and backward hat) looks just like barack obama.

by FUTURE12 on Mar 18, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions