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A few comments on the Bulls Centers

A few weeks ago I had a few coments on the backcourt players.  Then I couldn't watch the games for a few weeks, but that issue has been solved by a return to Illinois.  Here's a look at the center position with a look at the forwards hopefully coming soon.

According to 82games the minutes at center have been distributed like: Noah 39%, Gray 26%, Gooden, 23%, Thomas 8%, Nocioni 2%, and Simmons 1%.  This has been the worst position for the Bulls in terms of 82games' PER differential, last pl ace in the NBA.  In fact the Bulls are essentially tied with the Warriors for giving up the highest counterpart PER at any position with a 21.8 PER, and looking at that minute distribution it's easy to see why.   When Drew Gooden, Aaron Gray, and Andres Nocioni are playing over 50% of the minutes at center you have a defensive disaster.  Thomas isn't the defensive disaster at center that those guys are, but if he's listed as playing center that means Deng or more likely Nocioni is playing PF another terrible defensive situation.

 

Star-divide

Joakim Noah

So far has has played the same percentage of the team's minutes as last season,because 39%.  Obviously Noah coming into the season out of shape was a serious problem, but he still only played 24 minutes/game in January when he was clearly in shape enough to play more and Gooden was in street clothes.  I still maintain that he should be playing every minute his foul situation allows, which should be 30+ minutes per game.

Despite his conditioning issues, Noah has been demonstrably better this season.  I wrote about some of the things I'd be looking for back in October, and I'm fairly pleased at this point.  Noah has been less involved offensively this season. Opportunities to post up offensively have been virtually non-existent, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing.  He's not getting to the FT line at the same rate as last season because of that, but he's been even more effective on the offensive boards.  He's gone very good at 12.4% to great at 15.5%.  If there's an example of an area where Derrick Rose is making his teammates better this is probably it.

He's also finishing his limited opportunities better.  After improving his FG% throughout his rookie season, he's been better this year.  He made 52% of his FGA over the last two months of his rookie season, and has made 54% of his FGA so far this season.  In October I wondered whether he was capable of being a high efficiency offensive player like Chandler or Biedrins, and he's made big strides towards being that kind of consistent high efficiency player that takes maximum advantage of limited opportunties with a current Offensive Rating of 118, which puts him among the top 30 players in the league.

Defensively I wondered whether Noah could improve his rebounding and shot blocking, and his performance has been at least partly positive in both areas.  His defensive rebounding is slightly up, 18% to 20%.  There's signficant room to improve, but at least it's movement in the right direction.  Noah's shotblocking has had the more dramatic improvement.  After blocking 3.3% of shots last season, he's blocked 5.3% this season and 6% in both December and January.  I wanted to see improvement in this area from Noah, but he's probably over done it.  The result has been an increase in his foul rate to 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes and a drop in steal rate, but overall I feel better knowing that Noah at least has the ability to block shots at this rate.

With his overall improved play and the knowledge, according to Doug Thonus, that Noah now has a live in personal trainer, I feel more confident in Noah's ability to be productive physically.  His ceiling is now predicated on how much he can improve inconsistency and the mental arts of the game. 

Drew Gooden

I know there's a segment of Bulls fans that loved Joe Smith's mini-resurgence last season and were thrilled by the addition of Drew Gooden, but I'm clearly not a member of that segment.  Statistically Gooden has given Bulls one of his thoroughly average years.  This TS%, OR%, DR%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, TO%, USG%, ORtg, and PER are all essentially at his career averages.  Gooden this season has become more of a jumpshooter than ever.  He's shooting a solid 41% on jumpshots, but two thirds of his shot have been jumpers after only taking a little more than half his shots outside the paint during his best years.  I've written before about Luol Deng being a player that's better than his statistics, which shows up in Deng's consistently high adjusted plus/minus.    Gooden is the opposite type of player who is worse than his statistics.  He's had a long career of relatively consistent production, which makes his adjusted plus/minus more reliable.  Gooden had an adjusted plus/minus for 2007/2008 (Using 5 years of data to reduce noise) of -2.31 on offense and -1.36 on defense to finish 56 out of 74 PFs.  And that feels like an accurate assesment of Gooden, and fits with Cleveland's issues with him.  Gooden has been perfectly predictable, and really hasn't pleasantly surprised in a single area.

I've thankfully been almost able to forget that Gooden is on this roster.  That was until I heard Vinny talk about what an asset Drew would be when he comes back after the New Orleans game.  When they were both playing I had a hard time deciding whether Gooden or Nocioni annoyed me more.  But, this may be a good test to find out if Vinny has learned anything from this last month.  If he passes this test there may be hope for him yet.  For the past two years it seems like as soon as I get to an optimisitc place again, it's right back to the same old crap.

Aaron Gray

Thankfully the Aaron Gray love seems to subsided or his most ardent fans have left for more welcoming surroundings.  I don't feel like I have to emphasize why he sucks.  He's a successful 2nd round pick and serves a purpose against Yao and Shaq, but Gray playing 26% of the time feels like a crime against basketball.  But, then again that's not only the crime against basketball Vinny has committed this season.

This year's team has treated Gray like Noah and basically ignored him.  His usage% has fallen to 13.7% after the Boylan insisted on ffeding him the ball to the tune of 22% as a rookie.  That might be too big of a swing since Gray has no defensive value and really only has offensive value if he's scoring in the post, but it's closer to the ideal. 

Defensively we're talking about player that is commiting 7 fouls per 36 minutes for the 2nd straight season.  And the list of players that have done that is not impressive.  I don't see how he gets much better defensively given his physical limitations.  He's so top heavy that he can't play with any any knee bend or balance.  But, Vinny didn't do him any favors by starting him alongside Gooden.  And awful as Gray is there are still times where I'd rather have him on the court than Gooden or Nocioni because Gray won't take a shot outside of 10 feet, and his teammates will largely ignore him.  If Vinny would make sure that only one of Nocioni, Gooden, and Gray is ever on the court at anytime, it'd go a long way toward lowering my aggravation level.

 

 

 

 

A Last Appeal for the White Whale

I know the recent buzz is about Bosh and Amare, and rightfully so, but I'd still be really content with Brad Miller if he can be had without involving Thomas or Noah. There's a reason he has had a consistently high adjusted plus/minus, including this season.  His gae is a great fit with with Noah and Thomas up front, and no worse defensively than the guys who have played 50% of the minutes at center this season  His passing would make Deng and others more effective on offense,and he's a great pick and roll counterpart for Rose.  Depending on who was involved in the trades, I could see a Miller trade having a bigger impact over the next year and a half than a Stoudemire or Bosh trade, while leaving open the opportunity to sign someone in 2010 when Miller's contract expires.  But, of course this comes from someone who has been a consistent believer in Tyrus.

 

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I had that impression too

But for Bosh and Stoudemire, especially if they re-sign with us, I would trade anyone but Rose… They are to damm good to wait until 2010 and risk losing them to another team with cap space. If you have the opportunity, why wait?

p.s. Great job, as usual

by bull83 on Feb 6, 2009 8:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Stoudemire is overrated

Hes a great offensive player, but terrible defensively. Also, locker room cancer and completely dependent on his athleticism. Thus, not worth the max deal that he will demand.

Does anyone really think Stoudemire (who wont be the same player when rose peaks) will take us anywhere?? I wouldnt trade tyrus or noah straight up for him solely based on the fact that in his prime he is over-paid, but in rose’s prime he will be horribly overpaid.

However, I would like Bosh.

by rosefromconcrete on Feb 6, 2009 9:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

also, i do know that we couldnt trade those 2 straight up if we wanted to

Amare is one of those Gooden players who arent as good as their stats. Hes a terrible locker room guy as well. I would not want Amare under any circumstance.

by rosefromconcrete on Feb 6, 2009 9:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

VERY VERY

Well done. Awesome post.

I wish I knew how to look up the stats you do (I don’t know how to do comparatives, just one player at a time, and I guess I’m a bit lazy there too to research to find out because of guys like you on this site do it so well).

Rec’d. Hope this post stays up atop the fanposts for a while.

by majoyenrac on Feb 6, 2009 8:15 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Question.

In regards to counterpart PER by position…how does this statistic account for the Bulls usage of the 2-3 zone? The Bulls have been going in and out of zone a lot more in the past month…

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 6, 2009 8:32 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

All day with no answer.

Should I assume the stat does not account for zone defense?

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 6, 2009 6:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well done Scotter

Yfbb should have you on his payroll by now

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 6, 2009 9:09 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

good idea

I have to get on it myself…

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 6, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of which...

I noticed on Blazers Edge they have some guy (I think Ben) who occasionaly gets interviews/pictures and what not with Blazer reps and players. Obviously he doesn’t work for Blazers Edge, and provides his services free of charge to those smug bastards, but I was wondering if you (or anyone) have ever tried the same thing with our Bulls?

I’m mostly curious if A) does anyone over there read this blog, and B) how they feel about providing inside info to the blogosphere? Clearly the Blazers are in a different position than we are with regards to seeking publicity, and clearly they aren’t as dysfunctional as this Bulls era, but I’m curious just the same.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 6, 2009 10:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Noah's shotblocking

What has struck me about Noah’s shotblocking is that many of his blocks are on the man he’s guarding, not coming over as a help defender (like Tyrus). This is a much harder thing to do than block shots from the help side. It reminds me somewhat of Duncan, who has the same skill. If Noah can bulk up a bit over the next few years and increase his core and leg strength, so that he can keep all but the best centers from getting deep post position, he could be one of the best post defenders in the game.

That’s a big “if” though. Dude’s pretty damn skinny.

by arjoseph on Feb 6, 2009 9:18 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent point

Anyone who can just plain stuff Bosh for game point has at least one critical skill for a center.

by California Al on Feb 6, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great job Scotter

Arjoseph nailed it in his observations about Noah’s shot-blocking skills. I’ll never forget the way he stood inside and faced up a rampaging Lebron James who was thundering to a game-winning dunk against the Bulls last year. Noah blocked/rejected his shot and saved the game for the Bulls. His timing was perfect, and he was not intimidated. Those are the qualities of a winning ball player. No wonder he was an important cog on that Florida team that won back-to-back national titles.
John Paxson can be faulted for a lot of things, but I’ll forever be grateful to him for grabbing the chance to take Noah in the draft. He took a player with a winning attitude and heart. Phoenix tried desperately to get Noah and they wooed him before the draft. They tried moving up but couldn’t get close enough. I think Derek Rose is now realizing what a quality player he has. Noah’s passing skills are that of a guard because he growing up he played the position until he stretched to near 7 ft.
Noah will fill out physically naturally. He won’t do like Barry Bonds and take steroids. Be patient, a good diet and exercise will do the trick. Once again, thanks Scotter for a very thoughtful analysis.

by SlamDunk on Feb 6, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just keep him...

…away from the Crown Royal and you’re right, he may fill out naturally. I’d take some time in the weight room to accelerate the process too.

by EdNealy on Feb 6, 2009 8:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To be honest

I think Noah has bulked up considerably compared to last year. Not saying he’s a thick guy now, but he definitely appears to have put on some mass.

by messwiththebull on Feb 6, 2009 6:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Scotter, I needed that

I love when your stats and thoughts mirror my feelings, as to the best of my knowledge, your research is pretty inarguable. My gut said that Noah’s our only option right now and his "little things’ contribute more than the stats show, Gooden’s stats are not indicative of his real overall contribution which is normally bad with enough effort games to fool you for a while, Gray can be an effective tool in the right situations, and Noc and TT should never be at the center spot.
   Aggravation is a good word to describe watching Vinnie. He’s violated a few goals that I had for the team so badly at times that he convinced me that he’s a dunce. To go out there and repeat the exact same rotation errors that numbnuts made last year was beyond aggravating. Winning 45 games while stunting the growth of Noah and Thomas would have left me convinced that we were doomed until both he and Paxson were gone. On the other hand, winning 20 games and PROVING that neither Noah nor TT could play in the NBA anytime soon would have been a minor victory. The ideal would have been winning +.500 and coming out of this season with both Noah and TT having had enough time and coaching to learn their roles and know exactly how to spend their offseasons if they want to make it in the league. The Thabo enigma was a secondary question I wanted answered. I’d like to see Deng and Rose integrated into the scheme (this is a win so far), and everyone else converted into useful building blocks.
   This is a rebuilding year, and Noah and Gray are the rebuilding post game. We have to find out if we can go forward with them this year. The answer yes or no is fine; maybe would be ludicrous, and that’s all Vinnie gave us for half a season. As we talked about in your January analysis thread, the rarest NBA commodity is still 7’ers, and therefore any team’s biggest challenge. Since we have 2 of them, maximizing their development has to be an A priority.
   I like Noah and think his potential as a usable center is just fine. He has obvious weaknesses, but is very opportunitic on the floor. He’s going to get overpowered by the more powerful bigs, and he knows it and spends a lot of energy finding ways around people, like McHale used to. His instincts are good. Unlike TT, I think that PT in and of itself would improve Noah, as his trial and error would be informative. TT, on the other hand, would benefit from more immediate constructive feedback on his efforts. If this staff had the same intolerance for Rose’s mistakes as they’ve shown for Joakim and Ty, he’d be playing around 10 minutes a night. Absolutely scandalous job by Vinnie unitl the past week. If you’re right about Gooden’s return, I will become a very vocal dump-VDNer, possibly join the dump Pax crew, but sadly and more likely, just another disinterested potential Bulls fan.

by California Al on Feb 6, 2009 9:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Concerning the draft, I think they either need a SG or an offensive-minded C.

They could get either in the draft, but the latter might be slightly more attainable from the mock drafts I’ve seen. Gordon will leave so a place-holding SG wouldn’t be a bad idea. The one other idea is a rebounding, defensive uber-Reggie Evans type of PF, but I don’t think that’s hat immediate of a need or as hard to find.

Aaron Gray is not the future of anything, in my opinion. Gray should only be used for fouling big men or feeding him the post relentlessly if they’ve exhausted trying to score in every other manner first. Someone like Mullens or Ogilvy (just going after the mock drafts I’ve seen) provides what Gray would while having a much-higher upside.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 9:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather get a good wing than a big man just for the sake of getting a big man.

I think we need to focus on taking the most talented person available wherever we pick, not try to pigeon-hole our needs into the pick. If we get a big guy who can help, that would obviously be ideal. I’m not saying you were suggesting otherwise. I just think we need to compile talent at this point.

by arjoseph on Feb 6, 2009 12:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not opposed to upgrading any position

Ideally, I think I’d like a high scoring center with Noah moving to the PF, but that would be a miracle. So I’m with arjoseph below; draft the best player available. I’d love to see BG stay and be a part of what he helped get started here. Same with Kirk and Thabo, but the four of them just aren’t a good scheme for next season.
   See, here’s my big picture thoughts on THIS group. When the rotation included Hughes and Gooden, along with Noc and Gordon, we had too many guys looking for their shot. I’m sure their mentality was that is they gave up the ball, it would never come back to them. That led to really bad bball, I don’t care if they won. Whereas with Kirk and Noah playing, you knew that the ball would keep moving if you ran an offensive set, but had too few real threats on the floor to keep the d honest. So since Kirk’s return, they’ve appeared to play better. And whoever finally noticed that Joakim was rolling open to the rim, brilliant, even if a year and a half later. His efficiency is adequate for how little offense he has right now.
   So my goals for this year again: put in your sets, answer the going-forward questions about Noah, TT and Thabo, build a culture, try to win 22-25 games in the second half. In short, turn the ship around, progress next year. We aren’t a trade away from good, we’re a stud away. Taking out Noah and plugging in Brad Miller is a short term band-aid with an expensive long term cost. If Amare’s unhappy with his life in Phoenix, he might have been worse than Wallace here. Give this group an identity and support them. There’s potential here.

by California Al on Feb 6, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not opposed to drafting the best-player available.

Certainly. But if you can’t decide who will be better, which is often the case in the ’teens in the draft, draft with those priorities. If that makes sense.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Bulls are going to let Gordon leave

then I think that they have to take a SG in the draft. Anthony Parker is the only attainable free agent SG that wouldn’t make me sick. Just reading the draft sites, Gerald Henderson is one of the few guys that interest me. But I only watch WCBB, and definitely don’t go out of my way to watch the Polish leader so I have no idea if he’s any good. He’s just listed as having the right attributes-super athletic defense player that can shoot some and play off the ball. I could obviously be completely off base here, buy he sounds a lot better than Budinger.

by Scotter on Feb 6, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Budinger would be crazy good on the Bulls...

I watch a ton of AZ basketball, and trust me when I say that he is playing far outside of his natural game to keep them competitive. His game would thrive on a younger athletic team like ours. Plus he will have played enough college ball to come in and contribute immediately, which is exactly what we need if we lose Gordon. Chase is listed as a forward at AZ, but he has enough outside game, decent handles, and excellent court vision to play SG in the NBA. Plus at 6 foot 7 (with crazy hops) he would cause fits for smaller guards trying to defend him. He’s a steal if we get him.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 6, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If only we can get Tyler too

Just for Matt’s reaction. Classic :-)

by California Al on Feb 6, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dear God...

I’m just praying that Pax doesn’t fall in love with Tyler’s “winning tradition”.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 6, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it is written

ive been saying all year that tyler is gonna be the bulls pick…i hope not, but theres no way paxson doesnt draft him

by rosefromconcrete on Feb 6, 2009 9:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Budinger is not unlike another UA alum...

named Andre Iguodala. He came relatively late to the game, being first an internationally competive volleyball player (Iggy was a track and field star). He has insane hops, a better than decent jumper and even in three seasons in Tucson has only scratched the surface of his potential…there’s that word again…

Pax will probably play the race card and pick him because he’s white. Wouldn’t be all bad though, if he falls to us. (we are goinf to make the playoffs btw…)

by Carlitro on Feb 6, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no heart

that is that budinger has no heart

by rosefromconcrete on Feb 6, 2009 9:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And by what metric do we measure "heart"?

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 7, 2009 1:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

PHR.

‘Player Heart Rating’
You calculate it by taking PER, and then multiplying it by an arbitrary number. Examples:
-Ben Gordon PHR: 3
-Andres Nocioni PHR: 10000
-Budinger PHR: ???

"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com

by Prevenge on Feb 7, 2009 3:00 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

You can tell when he plays

Budinger is soft. Softer than a cookie fresh from the oven.

He’s not able to create, he’s not good at rebounding, and he’s just not a factor on defense at all. Keep him elsewhere.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Feb 7, 2009 4:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah that's what I thought...

“you can tell…”

Conjecture.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 7, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You can tell usually implies

Observation. Conjecture would be like an anecdote, or a passed note with a rumor.

Having watched ‘zona this year…I’m going to say this. He needs to drive to the cup and finish with more regularity, increase his FTA by going hard to the paint, and work on ball handling, most of his mistakes with the ball come from tentativeness (read: an indicator of unsureness, which is also to say, soft). He’s not active on the defensive end at all, and watching him will show that while he’ll mix it up sometimes, the vast majority of the time, he’s looking to scoop around someone wait for a shot to go up. It’s visual cues that get that label from me.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Feb 8, 2009 3:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Except he can rebound. Pretty well, too.

So there’s that.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 7, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's a 6 foot 7 SG

With 6.5 rebounds per, 1.7 on the offensive glass. That’s not good for a guy his size. He should be pulling down more than that, not only that, he’s not a good ball handler and isn’t assertive enough on his drives. He’s not a good finisher inside, though he augments that with good body control and the ability to work the bank (not to mention being a decent shooter too).

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Feb 8, 2009 2:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's good for a SG.

And he’s a perimeter-oriented offensive player. If he were a 6’7"-banger at PF, I’d agree. If he were a 7’0" SG, that’d still be good for the position, and if he were a 6’5" PF getting 6.5 rebounds, that’d still be bad.

And you’re forgetting putting things in context. On the Bulls, he wouldn’t be expected to be a great finisher inside or a great dribbler. It’d be great, but not expected. Further, in the late-lottery, a player is going to have a lot of flaws.

Instead of looking at all the things he lacks at (which people tend to do with people who have been on the draft radar for awhile), and look at where he’d be drafted by the Bulls, and how what he actually already does would help the Bulls compared to other players drafted around him.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 8, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think his skills can be duplicated with a free agent

and we can use the pick to address a weakness (ie making sure we don’t trot out Noc at the 4 or 5 for any reason).

Say we have a high enough pick (or he drops enough) to grab Thabeet from UConn, isn’t that a better move for us with our team? That pick allows us to further decrease Nocioni’s time on the floor with Gray, and eventually reward the effort and improvement of some of the guys on the roster. Isn’t Joe Johnson a free agent this offseason? Boom, 6’7" SG who operates on the perimeter, so on and so forth. SG is a position where we’re not thin, but not deep…that doesn’t necessarily mean weak.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Feb 8, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

um... sure

thabeet… now you’re speculating on unlikely things happening, which i wasn’t. I mean, if they can get griffin or Harden, they should do that, too.

I also expect Gordon to be leave and Thabo to move to SF more permanently, or to continue to show that he’s better there. That makes the Bulls extremely thin at SG. Like Hinrich and Hughes thin.

And this is further draft speculation anyway. I’m just saying that for the Bulls, Budinger wouldn’t need to create (or at least he shouldn’t be drafted w/ that expectation), and as a SG, his rebounding is perfectly acceptable.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 8, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The more I look at Budinger's statistics

combined with his physical gifts, the more I think he could fill the void that I suspect will be left by Ben Gordon when he leaves. He has a slightly better TS% than Ben did his last year at UConn, he has a better Pts per Play ratio than Ben did over the course of his college career. Ben in his first and second years of college got to the line more frequently per shot attempt than Budinger did in his first two years, but as juniors the edge goes to Budinger. Budinger has also been a much better rebounder by pace adjusted 40 minutes.

I have changed my mind about Budinger. I keep flip flopping on him. I wanted him after his freshman season, then soured on him last year and a good chunk of this year, but now, I think if we can get him in the mid first round where we’ll likely be…he’s a great fit.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 8, 2009 3:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Last year was an abberation...

Oneil was a johnny on the spot defensive minded coach with a roster built for Offense. He was basically Boylan. Wise (their PG) was hurt most of the year which caused their SG Bayless to run the point and Jared Hill was still figuring out how to man the post (he still couldn’t catch a pass to save his life). The team was lost, and honestly it was criminal that they even made the tournament (AZ State beat them twice and had basically the same record). Budinger is far better than he was last year, and from all accounts a very easy player to coach.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 8, 2009 8:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

But he's a lanky white guy!!!

Don’t you know that white guys can only be big guys? Or in an extreme rarity these days, a PG? Haven’t they drafted enough white guys that aren’t athletic?!?!?!?!?!!LKJR?LEJFsldfkj avlijfds

I hadn’t looked at Gerald Henderson for the past month until Scotter mentioned him. If he continues to shoot 45% from three, he’d be my choice over Budinger. He’s got the same limitation in that he can’t create his own shot, but he’s already considered a much better defender.

Teams looking to draft a go-to scoring swingman will probably have to look in a different direction, as that’s not likely going to be Henderson’s role in the NBA. Those in search of a smart, versatile, two-way player who is comfortable blending in as a role-player and offers strong intangibles to boot could find Henderson very appealing. It’s not hard to envision him stepping into a role similar to Courtney Lee’s in doing with Orlando this season.

Of course, if he plays this well, he might work be drafted ahead of where the Bulls pick.

My cousin, a huge Duke fan, is convinced he won’t come out, though, because they should get most of their team back and he’s rich w/ his dad being a former NBA’er.

Ultimately, I’d be happy with anyone at SG or C. I’m wary of the myriad PF’s that seem available in the 10’s this year.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 8, 2009 10:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I realize you might be joking but...

Chase Budinger is about as far from a “non-athletic white guy” as we could get. The only part of that sentence that would be true in fact is that he’s white. The guy has hops for days, more than Tyrus even.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 8, 2009 11:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely joking.

If people wanted to compare him to another SF-sized SG that was skinny and white, they’d do better to compare him to Brent “Slam Dunk Champion” Barry than to Adam Morrison or Luke Jackson.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 9, 2009 9:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Does Joakim Noah qualify

As a lanky white guy?

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 9, 2009 11:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

he's half-white, so I guess so

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 10, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no, he's tall

guy’s 6’11"/7’0" plus don’t count. it’s only those between about 6’5" – 6’10"

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 10, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, Joe Johnson is going to demand a max contract

and he won’t be a free agent until 2010… so get your facts straight. There aren’t going to be any SG options better than Ben Gordon in the offseason after this season.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 8, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice to see we can have

Decent conversation without snark and attitude. Grow up.

And I’m pretty sure the Johnson thing was a question, and a legit question at that. Get your facts straight kind of implies I was certain about Johnson, which a simple look will show I wasn’t. Johnson won’t get max money, this should be obvious, but you’re right he’ll demand it.

Even if there are not better options than Gordon, I never said that re-signing him would be a bad option if it’s there. Doesn’t change that Budinger is not a good fit for us, and will be marginal at the next level on the whole.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Feb 8, 2009 8:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Most definitely!!! You should like, be a scout.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 8, 2009 10:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh screw it.

Jesus.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Feb 8, 2009 11:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How can you watch women's college basketball?

I’m not trying to offend, I’m being dead serious. I’ve tried watching and it’s painful for me. Do you have a relative or something that plays? Are you in the business yourself? Whenever I’ve tuned into any women’s game I make it through about 5 minutes and 8 airballs/bricks/turnovers until I can’t take it anymore.

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 6, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I started watching women's basketball during the 1995 Final Four when I was in junior high.

I immediately became a fan of UConn. So I’m mostly watching one of the superpowers, not a random Northern Arizona versus Washington State game. They consistently embody everything I love about basketball and everything I appreciate about those 1st three Bulls Championships. They’re the best passing team in the country every year, and the most unselfish team every year. They pursue basketball greatness nearly every year, chasing flawless offensive and defensive execution, and they’ve come real close at times. This year they’re shooting 54% from the field, 38% from 3, and averaging 87 points per game. I still enjoy watching UConn blow out somebody by 30 because there is constant pressure on the players to pursue basketball perfection regardless of the score. And there is nothing in basketball like a UConn/Tennessee game. One of their games is still the highest rated program ESPN has ever had.

Women’s basketball on the whole is a different story, but once you watch enough to put things in context of what normal play looks like it gets easier to appreciate women’s basketball for what is. And I can appreciate the things that some women do that the vast majority of the male players lack the skill to do, such as Maya Moore going 10/14 from 3 in a game. I appreciate that it’s a different game than the men play and I don’t measure it against the men.

by Scotter on Feb 6, 2009 4:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey - to each his own right?

I was going to say I hope you watch the UConns/Tennessees and the like because otherwise it’s brutal. I grew up in Naperville and watched Candice Parker when she was a budding young star so I guess I can appreciate the women in a small way.

As far as pure, unselfish basketball goes, I’m with ya and that would be awesome, but it just isn’t ever going to happen in the NBA unless Russia enslaves us all and forces Communism on the masses.

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 6, 2009 6:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Henderson might be the best prospect available after the Top-10...

….but I really want someone who can shoot. I feel like I would like a shooter w/ the potential to play defense than a defender w/ the potential to shoot. I don’t know if that’s appropriate based on history, but it’s my gut feeling.

On the other hand, Henderson is definitely shooting well. He’s already the best defending SG among top draft prospects. If one is convinced he can shoot at least 38% from 3 (eventually), I’d be definitely agree.

But yeah, since I like Rose-Deng-Thomas-Noah so much, getting a starting caliber SG would be ideal. If Henderson can’t shoot the 3, even if he can’t do hardly anything else on offense, his defense makes him an easy choice.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He had a wrist injury he played with last season so this season

might be representative of his shooting going forward. And I always think it’s easier to get a defender to shoot better than a shooter to defend better. And I generally don’t trust the guys who take a lot of 3s in college.

by Scotter on Feb 6, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As I said, I'm willing to be wrong.

And if Henderson continues to show that he

can

shoot from 3 (and I’ll watch because my best friend and cousin is a relentless Duke fan), I’ll see him as a better prospect.

I’ve been watching SG prospects for about a year now because I’m convinced the Bulls and Gordon won’t come to agreement (no matter who’s “fault” it ultimately is). In fact, before the Bulls won the lottery, I was thinking they needed to draft a SG in either Brandon Rush or Chase Budinger. A year ago, Henderson’s actual “shooting” stats were crap.

And I get your point as to those who rely on jump-shooting entering the pro’s. If Hender4son shows further promise, he needs to be considered. He’s a Dookie, and might be a Final Four participant, so we can assume he’ll be considered.

I definitely think he’s the most athletic and best defender among the projected lottery players. If one thinks he can eventually develop a 3-pt shot, he would absolutely be ideal. He doesn’t need to be a playmaker at all. Shooting 3’s and defending PG’s to SF’s and I’ll be well-satisfied.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

*projected lottery players = projected lottery SG's.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 10:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Could you give an assessment on Tyrus?

Also, do you assign the same relevance to APM when talking about Gordon that you do with Gooden? That’s not intended as snark, it’s just that I recall APM isn’t that kind to Gordon, but you’ve described him as “Ray Allen lite”. Which I agree with.

by Sports2 on Feb 6, 2009 9:24 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to try and write about

Tyrus, Deng, Sefolosha, and Nocioni sometime in the next week.

As for Gordon. I think his story is different than Gooden’s.

Here’s Gordon’s five years of APM: 6.83, -0.25, 3.03. -10.16, -2.63. Remember that his -2.63 this year is heavily influenced by last year’s -10.16 which used no blending of other seasons.

Here’s Allen’s five years of APM: 3.07, 9.84, 2.93, -0.41, 9.34. His 9.84 year was the year Wilcox came at the trade deadline and had the best stretch of his career. That type of impact mid-season addition can throw APM out of wack. Hinrich injury where he played 6 games and then didn’t play for two months also threw this year’s team’s numbers out of whack, but they’re sorting themselves out as Hinrich plays more. I tend to view Gordon’s -10.16 as an aberration given his prior history, but I also don’t Gordon is the type of player that can give you a consistently positive impact.

Gooden’s APM history looks like this: 6.77, -12.52, -3.96, 2.39, -5.24.
6.77 was when he had his career year with a 19.7 PER. His 2.39 last season, I question because of the mod-season trade. But,you can see that Gooden’s record is quite a bit different from Ben’s.

by Scotter on Feb 6, 2009 12:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love it if someone would just do a single, unweighted APM

The weighting just seems to introduce an element of arbitrariness when the whole point (to me at least) is to eliminate such things. I’d much rather just have a single, five-year number and call it the player’s APM. But I’ve bitched about that before. I mean, I agree one can tell a story about why Gooden isn’t as good as Gordon, but honestly I don’t see a lot of difference in those numbers. And knowing how they’re put together doesn’t give me a lot of faith it would accurately detect them.

by Sports2 on Feb 6, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that I don't undertand then need to

do single year rankings, other than for publicity purposes. And I wish someone would just publish three year rankings with all seasons weighted the same, that makes the most sense to me.

by Scotter on Feb 6, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Scotter, I have an idea I'd like to run by you.

Do you think you could go to my profile and e-mail me so I can e-mail you back?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 9:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

still no post player

Very interesting to see a breakdown of the more interesting stats for the center position. I agree with out assesment of Gray as someone nice to have against the 300lbs but anything beyond that because lack of defense quickness.

They still need someone to throw the ball into the post( any position). You listed how many times these centers touch the ball in the post an it wasn’t pretty. Since the Bulls don’t have a big guard( Roy, Joe Johnson) or a SF that can post, they need to get a center who can.

by Jscho316 on Feb 6, 2009 9:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Stephen Curry?

Although he’s been playing a lot at the point this year. Still though…him and Rose together would be nasty w/ Curry’s sharpshooting.

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 6, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And the worst defensive back court in the league?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You gotta think Rose is going to get better

from his rookie to soph. year.

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 6, 2009 11:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just please for the love of God don't let him anywhere near a motorcycle...

That might be in bad taste, but I am sincerely not trying to make a joke.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 6, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Hopefully the Bulls are putting stuff like this in their contracts now.

Like, “You forfeit the life of your mother and your first born (if applicable) if, at any time during the season or off-season, you ride a motorcycle, moped, scooter, Vespa, dirt bike, mountain bike, Big Wheel, etc.” Seriously.

by arjoseph on Feb 6, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It was in the Jay Wiliam's contract...

The Bulls were nice enough to pay him a few million after the fact, but they didn’t have to, he broke the rules.

Anyways, the comparisons of JW to Rose aren’t really close… I believe JW was well on his way to being a bust anyways. At the best, he was going to be a good player, not a superstar.

by smash! on Feb 6, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

While I agree that Rose will be far better...

It’s hardly fair to judge Jay on his one year in the NBA. He was splitting minutes with super chucker Jamal Crawford, next to one of our biggest mistakes in Jalen Rose, and our power forward was Marcus Fizer. That was pretty much the height of my bulls depression… I had season tickets that year by the way… Sigh.

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 6, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh and...

Lest we not forget that budding superstar in his own right… Eddie Robinson!

Nocioni has an Olympic gold medal, a bronze medal and a EuroLeague MVP, and now… His legs are broken! Coming to an arena near you.

by Khalid El-Amin on Feb 6, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Bad assumption

Don’t know if he could be lockdown, but I know he’s not even trying right now. Pretty much a matador. If we’re not playing zone, it will be very hard for him to put up more points than he surrenders. The good news is, it’s not hard to slow down an opponent if you try and have good athleticism.

by California Al on Feb 6, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Aaron Gray

is the best passer among all our non-guards, and he’s our only big man averaging 55%+ FG deep in the paint. His 1.3 Win Shares in limited time is impressive. I realize he’s a crappy defender, but he deserves his minutes.

by YaoPau on Feb 6, 2009 12:59 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wrong.

Noah’s way better. And Gray is the worst pass catcher/receiver on the team, by far. He has some moves but it seems like he realizes 1/2 way through them that he is, in fact, Aaron Gray, and then it’s all downhill from there.

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 6, 2009 4:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ridiculous

Anyone who has been watching Bulls basketball that says Aaron Gray is the best passer among non-guards should have his head examined. Clearly, Joakim Noah is one of the best passing big min in the game. No question. Maybe YaoPow is Gray’s brother using an alias.

by SlamDunk on Feb 6, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and tyrus

is a decent passer as well, he just tends to get out of control with them sometimes particularly on the break.

"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"

by Jaina on Feb 6, 2009 4:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I don't know about that one.

I think TT may be the worst passer on the team (and I love TT).

by smash! on Feb 7, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

what i mean is he can be.

he has the capability of making some great passes. but he definitely gets out of control quickly trying to be fancy with them.

"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"

by Jaina on Feb 7, 2009 4:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you're not watching close enough.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 8, 2009 11:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no, I said 'close'

I stick my face through the TV sometimes!

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And VDN sees every minute of every game

You’re point?

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 9, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My point is that TT isn't a good passer. You want to disagree?

Or just stick up for YFBB for no reason whatsoever (since I was clearly just joking with him and he seemed to get it, yet you failed.)

by smash! on Feb 9, 2009 1:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, TT is a good passer.

He sees the floor well and can make good passes even if he’s occasionally erratic. We’ve had this argument many times at BaB, and you’re on the losing side.

by Scotter on Feb 9, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Bad point, worse joke

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 9, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ridiculos

Correction: “big men”

by SlamDunk on Feb 6, 2009 4:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Our center solution

We’ll never be able to get an all-star center, therefore, we should do what the Bulls did in the ’90’s. Center by committee. Given that, I would try and get the best center with a contract PAST 2010, ie, Pryz or Kaman.

Why “past 2010” because we may be able to trade expiring contracts to Portland and LAC.

by hlac on Feb 6, 2009 1:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Joakim is better suited a PF than a center in my opinion. If he’s gonna be a center then he should be a backup who gets 25-30 a game splitting between PF and C. I don’t know if he can be a 35 mpg starting center….I don’t think he’ll be able to bulk up enough. I like Jo a lot though, he will be a very useful player in the league. He just fucked up by not being in proper shape.

Also Jay Williams had a pretty solid rookie year, he would be have been above average if he didn’t get on the bike and played a full career…not as good as Rose but he was no bust for sure.

by C Smoove on Feb 6, 2009 3:53 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Some numbers re Jay Williams

His PER for that year was 12.something, which is not horrible for a rookie but doesn’t scream all-star, either. However, in the last month of that year, he found his shot (which he didn’t have really prior to then). In April, he shot 59, 68 from 3, 80% from the line. He averaged 13 points, 5 ast, 2.6 reb, .8 stls, and — amazingly — .5 blocks per game in 24 minutes. He also had fewer than 2 TOs a game in that span.

by arjoseph on Feb 6, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

PF's need to be able to shoot from 15 ft out these days.

I’m not sure there’s not one good one that can’t do that. Noah can’t.

Rasheed Wallace, Duncan, Gasol, Aldridge, Marion, Beasley, Love, Bosh, Amare, Dirk, Scola, Josh Smith, David West, Brand. I’m sure there’s a few…

If Noah could add 15 pounds of core muscle strength while maintaining his quickness and energy over the next couple of years, I think he’d be a great non-scoring center.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 6, 2009 5:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see

Noah ever shooting it like anything other than his “inner 9 year old self”. This boggles my mind somewhat. Even Varajao can hit a 15ft shot every once in a while.

At least he and TT don’t seem to be having the crazy difficulties they used to finishing right under the basket, or to the same degree. I would not trade them both for Amare, BTW.

"As a basketball player gordon is a useless as tits on a a whore" - BigWay (Dec 2, 2008). BigWank, I'll miss you more than all the others. This song is for you, my brother!

by marionette on Feb 7, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding Brad Miller

I fail to see how a deal gets done here. For 2 reasons. Because the Bulls don’t want to give up extra salary that will keep them from the luxury tax, and the KIngs want an expiring contract for Miller. He can be had, but for the right package. I don’t think the Bulls have the right combination to get a deal done here (too bad—cuz I agree he would help Thomas & Noah—and their youth/athleticism would help mask many of his lack of athleticism deficiencies).

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Feb 8, 2009 12:05 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

What about NO/Chi trade?

Would trading Joakim Noah, Drew Gooden, and Cedric Simmons for Tyson Chandler improve the roster?

by benhertz on Feb 9, 2009 7:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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