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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

December and November-BOP Style

Since my own curiosity was peaked and there seemed to be some interest, I calculated the splits for the other two months of the season.  Here's the stats with a few observations.

 

December USG% TO% eFG% TS% ORtg DRtg Poss OR% DR% FTr AS% MIN
TEAM 20.0 14.6 50.2 54.3 108.3 111.8 1414.1 26.1 70.1 20.8 54.5
OPP 20.0 13.5 49.5 54.1 111.8 108.3 1415.9 29.9 73.9 22.7 57.1
Gordon 24.5 16.3 54.2 58.3 107.8 115.0 270.5 1.2 9.8 21.7 16.8 573
Rose 23.7 16.5 47.5 50.6 100.3 115.5 254.7 2.1 7.5 16.4 27.3 559
Deng 18.5 6.8 48.6 52.0 113.1 112.8 148.0 7.4 10.5 17.8 9.7 417
Hughes 20.4 10.0 48.7 54.1 109.3 110.3 160.4 0.3 13.0 26.5 14.4 408
Nocioni 19.6 15.6 53.6 57.4 107.0 113.6 147.4 2.1 16.4 19.3 10.2 391
Noah 13.6 17.6 62.2 67.7 133.6 107.5 73.8 16.1 16.8 46.7 8.3 281
Gooden 23.2 19.3 41.4 46.8 93.0 110.6 119.1 10.3 23.2 21.2 9.4 267
Thomas 18.3 11.8 51.2 58.0 115.1 106.1 93.5 6.3 21.3 34.1 4.2 265
Gray 15.0 17.3 51.0 51.4 111.9 109.4 69.5 14.8 25.3 9.8 11.6 241
Sefolosha 13.0 21.4 51.2 51.3 95.2 111.4 46.7 3.2 11.5 2.4 11.0 186
Hunter 19.4 12.4 42.3 42.3 88.7 113.2 24.3 1.8 6.9 0.0 13.9 65
Simmons 15.0 0.0 50.0 48.8 105.4 109.4 6.6 0.0 14.7 33.3 6.6 23

Star-divide

What a horrid month on the defensive end.  This month does represent the worst of Vinny's lineup decisions.  Hughes and Nocioni both playing a 100 more minutes than any of the bigs on the roster.  That's how you get

I didn't realize Derrick had posted two consecutive months with a 100 Offensive Rating.  I was posting that I was already worried about him at the end of December, but I didn't know it was quite that bad.  His defefensive rebound rate, free throw rate, and FG% have declined every month.

Deng and Thomas had solid months on offense.  Remember when they couldn't hit a shot and Derrick Rose was finishing at the rim?

 

November USG% TO% eFG% TS% ORtg DRtg Poss OR% DR% FTr AS% MIN
TEAM 20.0 15.7 46.2 51.4 103.7 106.9 1509.5 28.4 71.0 23.7 51.8
OPP 20.1 16.1 48.3 53.6 106.9 103.7 1513.3 29.0 71.6 27.4 55.2
Rose 23.0 15.8 50.0 54.4 108.1 110.6 291.5 2.9 9.3 19.9 28.4 645
Gordon 23.9 14.0 51.9 57.9 112.6 111.6 278.9 1.5 8.2 28.1 19.2 594
Gooden 21.0 14.0 47.4 52.6 107.0 103.5 186.1 9.9 23.4 22.8 6.2 451
Deng 20.2 15.6 40.2 47.3 94.4 108.0 179.3 4.3 13.8 28.0 6.9 452
Nocioni 18.6 18.9 48.0 52.4 98.7 108.5 143.1 4.7 15.7 23.8 6.5 391
Thomas 20.1 23.2 33.0 41.2 82.6 102.0 146.3 9.1 18.4 33.0 5.4 370
Hughes 18.5 8.0 49.0 52.6 107.8 108.3 87.2 1.4 11.4 15.5 7.9 240
Noah 13.4 12.9 40.0 45.1 110.1 101.9 69.8 14.0 24.5 30.0 6.7 264
Gray 16.1 13.3 49.0 51.8 117.5 107.1 67.5 16.8 19.2 21.6 8.9 213
Sefolosha 14.8 14.2 48.1 52.3 106.9 101.0 56.5 2.2 14.6 17.0 16.4 194
Hunter 16.5 25.2 46.3 47.4 89.2 106.0 31.8 0.0 2.3 3.7 25.0 98
Hinrich 17.1 22.3 52.5 56.9 105.7 107.3 49.4 0.7 7.7 20.0 25.6 147

There's been some discussion of whether the ball movement was actually better in January.  Maybe it's a result of playing weaker teams, but the team assisted on 61% of FGM after assisting on 52% and 55% the 1st two months.

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Did Joakim Noah really have a ORating of 133.6?

Posts a 68% TS and only plays 40 more minutes than Gray. Awesome.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 3, 2009 3:41 PM CST reply actions  

It's interesting to me that despite all the lamentation about Noah being "out of shape"

at the beginning of the season, that he posted a ridiculous 133 ORtg and equally ridiculous 67.7 TS% in the month of December. Granted in November he did start significantly slower, with just the 110 ORtg and 45 TS%, but people hadn’t adjusted their opinions to reality in December when he was playing great. There were still claims that he was out of shape. Also, Noah’s DRtg was a very solid 101.9 in November, which also didn’t jive with a lot of people’s complaints about him not being where he was supposed to be.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 3, 2009 3:44 PM CST reply actions  

Another observation looking at these numbers with the January numbers...

November was a pretty good defensive month for the team (by DRtg), but the offense was bad. Then in December the Team ORtg got better and the defense dropped off. Now, in January the ORtg and DRtg appear to have caught up to one another and the Bulls are almost even in ORtg and DRtg (which would correlate to them being a .500 team, but being balanced). The ORtg unfortunately dropped in January, but the defense got appreciably better (more Tyrus and Noah and less Gooden and Noc, perhaps?) Maybe that’s a function of Vinny implementing his defensive philosophy first and then shifting the focus to offense, but in the process of the shift guys to offense guys forgot about the defensive side of the ball, and now finally they are understanding what he wants on both ends. Or it could just be a function of personnel and who’s been getting the minutes in each month. Just throwing out theories to make sense of the somewhat odd numbers showing a really unbalanced team one way one month and then unbalanced in just the opposite way the next month and now finding some balance and settling in as an average team. Anyway, hope the improvement on both sides of the ball improves.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 3, 2009 4:12 PM CST reply actions  

Maybe I need to learn what some of these numbers mean....

since I have no clue. USG?, TS?, eFG…no effing clue. All I could google it….but I’m lazy. Good effort though scotter.

by Ayeljay54 on Feb 3, 2009 4:39 PM CST reply actions  

Thanks Basketball-Reference.com !

Glossary

AST%
Assist Percentage (available since the 1964-65 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) – FG). Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.

Award Share
The formula is (award points) / (maximum number of award points). For example, in the 2002-03 MVP voting Tim Duncan had 962 points out of a possible 1190. His MVP award share is 962 / 1190 = 0.81.

BLK
Blocks (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA)

BLK%
Block Percentage (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA – Opp 3PA)). Block percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent two-point field goal attempts blocked by the player while he was on the floor.

DPOY
Defensive Player of the Year

DRB
Defensive Rebounds (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA)
 
DRB%
Defensive Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (DRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm DRB + Opp ORB)). Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

DRtg
Defensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions. This rating was developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper. I will point you to Dean’s book for complete details.

DWS
Defensive Win Shares (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); please see the article Calculating Win Shares for more information.

EFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

FG
Field Goals

FG%
Field Goal Percentage; the formula is FG / FGA.

FGA
Field Goal Attempts

FT
Free Throws
 
FT%
Free Throw Percentage; the formula is FT / FTA.
 
FTA
Free Throw Attempts

Four Factors
Dean Oliver’s “Four Factors of Basketball Success”; please see the article Four Factors for more information.

G
Games

GB
Games Behind; the formula is ((first W – W) + (L – first L)) / 2, where first W and first L stand for wins and losses by the first place team, respectively.

GmSc
Game Score; the formula is PTS + 0.4 * FG – 0.7 * FGA – 0.4*(FTA – FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK – 0.4 * PF – TOV. Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, i.e., 40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.

GS
Games Started (available since the 1982 season)

L
Losses

L Pyth
Pythagorean Losses; the formula is G – W Pyth.

Lg
League
 
MVP
Most Valuable Player

Most Similar at Age
The player who had the most similar season at a given age (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA). Please read the full description of the method.

MP
Minutes Played (available since the 1951-52 season)

ORtg
Offensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players it is points produced per 100 posessions, while for teams it is points scored per 100 possessions. This rating was developed by Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper. I will point you to Dean’s book for complete details.

ORB
Offensive Rebounds (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA)

ORB%
Offensive Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (ORB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)). Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

OWS
Offensive Win Shares (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); please see the article Calculating Win Shares for more information.

Pace
Pace Factor (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula is 48 * ((Tm Poss + Opp Poss) / (2 * (Tm MP / 5))). Pace factor is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.

PER
Player Efficiency Rating (available since the 1951-52 season); PER is a rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. In John’s words, “The PER sums up all a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player’s performance.” Please see the article Calculating PER for more information. Also see VAA and VAR.

Per 40 Minutes
A statistic (e.g., assists) divided by minutes played, multiplied by 40.

Per Game
A statistic (e.g., assists) divided by games.

PF
Personal Fouls

Poss
Possessions (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula for teams is 0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA – 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA – Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA – 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA – Opp FG) + Opp TOV)). This formula estimates possessions based on both the team’s statistics and their opponent’s statistics, then averages them to provide a more stable estimate. The formula for players is rather lengthy and can be found in Dean Oliver’s book.

PProd
Points Produced; Dean Oliver’s measure of offensive points produced. Please see Dean’s book for details.

PTS
Points

ROY
Rookie of the Year

SMOY
Sixth Man of the Year

STL
Steals (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA)

STL%
Steal Percentage (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (STL * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * Opp Poss). Steal Percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor.

SRS
Simple Rating System; my colleague Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method.

Stops
Stops; Dean Oliver’s measure of individual defensive stops. Please see Dean’s book for details.

Tm
Team

TOV
Turnovers (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA)

TOV%
Turnover Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV). Turnover percentage is an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays.

TRB
Total Rebounds (available since the 1950-51 season)

TRB%
Total Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (TRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm TRB + Opp TRB)). Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

TS%
True Shooting Percentage; the formula is PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)). True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws

Usg%
Usage Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.

VAA
Value Above Average (available since the 1950-51 season); the formula is (PER – 15) / 15 * MP. By definition, the league average PER in a given season is 15, so this measure computes the player’s value above the league average taking playing time into consideration. Please note that defensive specialists (e.g., Bruce Bowen) will be drastically underrated using this method.

VAR
Value Above Replacement (available since the 1950-51 season); the formula is (PER – 9) / 15 * MP. Replacement-level PER is estimated to be about 9, so this measure computes the player’s value above the league replacement level taking playing time into consideration. Please note that defensive specialists (e.g., T.R. Dunn) will be drastically underrated using this method.
 

W Pyth
Pythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm PTS14 / (Tm PTS14 + Opp PTS14)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm PTS / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA, and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5 (a common choice), the rmse is 3.48 wins.

WS
Win Shares (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); please see the article Calculating Win Shares for more information.

Sorry for some of the ones you probably already know but I figured I’d give everything here.

"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."

by Ugh It Live! on Feb 3, 2009 4:58 PM CST reply actions  

Those are all the ones I use, except for USG%.

I use Dean Oliver’s formula for USG%. It usually comes out very close to the formula above so it isn’t a big difference.

by Scotter on Feb 3, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions  

How are offensive rating and defensive rating calculated?

I remember reading somewhere that they though those numbers weren’t reliable but I don’t know how they are calculated, only what they represent, so I can’t judge myself.

by Basketball Smurf on Feb 3, 2009 5:18 PM CST reply actions  

you have to buy Dean Oliver's book to see how they are calculated... it's quite a process, especially at the individual level.

Scotter clearly knows how to do it though, maybe he could post it for us.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 3, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Right. I suggest buying the Basketball on Paper.

They’re fairly involved and it’s best to read Oliver’s logic for how each part was constructed. I like Oliver’s statistics, especially ORtg and DRtg because they were designed to actually help scout basketball That’s different than PER or other stats that were created to serve more journalistic purposes. I read Basketball on Paper again last month, and got even more out of it the 2nd time.

I took the formulas for ORtg and DRtg from the book and put them into an excel spreadsheet. To calculate ORtg and DRtg you need a player’s boxscore stats (MIN, FG, FGA, 3P, 3PA, FT, FTA, OR, DR, PF, AS, TO, BLK, STL, and PTS), his team’s boxscore stats, and the opponents’ boxscore stats. It’s that connection with the team that makes ORtg and DRtg different from stats like PER.

ORtg basically distributes credit for every point scored to the individual players, taking into account all the offensive boxscore stats.

DRtg does basically the same thing for defense. It distributes credit for every point a team gives up to the individual players. Obviously, it’s harder to do this accurately on defense. Oliver attempts to do it by giving players individual credit for defensive rebounds, steal, and blocks. And then evenly distributing credit for team defense according to minutes played among the players. It’s how team defense is credited that can make a poor defender look good on a great defense relative to the rest of the league. But, then otherwise bad defenders can also play good defense if they’re surrounded by good defenders so there is some merit to it.

by Scotter on Feb 3, 2009 7:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Scotter, I have a question

I can only imagine how lengthy calculating this numbers are, especially splitting them month for month. How are you calculating these numbers? Are you running a script, using excel, finding it from another site, or just crunching them on a calculator?

by NittanyCub on Feb 3, 2009 7:26 PM CST reply actions  

Most likely using the ancient Mayan adding machines

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 3, 2009 7:27 PM CST up reply actions  

As I said above, I'm using excel.

I still have to type in the boxscore stats for team, opponents, and the players to make all the formulas work. Scripts are behind my knowledge, unfortunately.

by Scotter on Feb 3, 2009 7:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Why doesn't any of the stat sites offer splits on these types stats?

it seems like an almost trivial but useful extension of the database.

by reprisal on Feb 4, 2009 12:43 AM CST reply actions  

I emailed Hollinger once to ask why PER splits aren't available

He never responded – not that this is a big surprise given that I’m a nobody (but an Insider nobody, damnit!) – but it does make me appreciate the effort some of them take to respond to emails.

Anyway, I think it would make a lot of sense, too, with these stats that are built out of player averages. As the sample size gets bigger, good or bad streaks make less and less of a difference so they aren’t as reflective of how a player is doing recently. Also, if you have a player like Lu who has an absolutely miserable November, the cumulative stats are reflectively low for some time.

Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!

by wjb1492 on Feb 4, 2009 12:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess he's got hold something back.

Calculating ORtg and DRtg I can deal with, but I’ve looked at the article describing how to calculate PER at B-R and have no interest in messing around with that. Pace Adjusted Game Score works just fine in place of the full PER formula.

Unless the database is designed really well, it could be a real pain to create advanced splits. I know the B-R database is good enough to combine a couple of seasons using the season search and player comparison tool, but I’m not sure it’s designed well enough to create advanced splits. Even to do what I did involved copying the players’ stats from the ESPN splits, but in order to get the opponents’ stats I had to copy the game logs from B-R into excel and sum up the individual boxscores from each game. But, I agree that it would be useful for analysis.

by Scotter on Feb 4, 2009 1:12 AM CST up reply actions  

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