Game Preview #57: Chicago Bulls v. Orlando Magic
by wjb1492 on Feb 24, 2009 11:44 AM CST
46 comments
[Thanks to wjb1942 for today's game preview -ed.]
Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the 57th game of your very own manic depressive Chicago Bulls, a team with dizzyingly rapid highs and lows that alternately cause elation and despair among us, its loyally co-dependent fanbase. After two great, shorthanded wins coming out of the All-Star Break, our Bulls most recently lost to the underwhelming Pacers. True, the Bulls were integrating new players for the first time, and Indiana has a pretty good home record, but expectations were high coming off of the unexpected win over the Denver Nuggets with only 7 1/2 Bulls players available.
Tonight, the Bulls host Superman and his incredible, league-leading crew of 3-point shooters. Games against Orlando have not gone well for the Bulls as of late, with a 1-8 record over the past 3 seasons. Considering the Magic have a "super" solid interior presence and shoot the 3 well, this is hardly surprising - Orlando's strengths have matched up exceptionally well with some of Chicago's weaknesses over the past few seasons. The Magic are currently in 3rd place in the East, and looked to maintain that spot with its trade deadline deal for Raefer Alston to replace the injured Jameer Nelson. Critics have suggested the Magic will regret this move next season when they have a healthy Nelson back, but Alston has proved a worthy replacement for this season so far.
The Bulls, meanwhile, have a somewhat confusing lineup as the team continues to integrate Brad Miller, John Salmons, and Tim Thomas into the lineup in place of Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, and Thabo Sefolosha. The new guys are all upgrades, at least on offense, but it's a fairly good sized turnover of teammates for a midseason adjustment, and if Vinny continues his frequent substitutions it could take a while for guys to find a rhythm together. The new guys played reasonably well in the Pacers game. As for what remains of the former core, Ben had a great game, as he has been having a great season, but is nonetheless once again hearing rumblings that he should be moved back to the bench so a taller and more defensive minded guard can start. Kirk, current holder of the "No Matter What You Do, We Just Don't Want You" Endowed Chair, had an awful game to follow up two really strong ones, and further suffered the hate of a critical mass of Bulls fans after Vinny elected to use him in place of Derrick for part of the fourth quarter. Lu apparently injured his wrist in the first quarter of the game, which may help explain this particular game's lousy free throw shooting, but is certainly doing nothing to challenge the tissue-paper soft label. (He's questionable for tonight as of now.) Tyrus and Joakim were OK, but Derrick had a rough outing; he seems to be in a bit of a mini-slump lately offensively and has been benched several times now for his lack of defense. Tough love? Rookie wall? Tonight starts a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights, so hopefully he snaps out of whatever it is.
This is a big game for the Bulls, as they all are for a team sitting in 9th and hoping to make the playoffs. After last night's Bucks and Nets wins, the Bulls are 1 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot and only 1/2 game ahead of slipping into a tie with New Jersey, who the team actually plays tomorrow night. On the bright side, the Bulls' great recent record has them at 7th in Hollinger's playoff odds. On the not-so-bright side, and just to reiterate, tonight's opponent is the Orlando Magic, they of the 41-14 record, 19-8 road record, and +7.7 margin of victory.
Not surprisingly, everyone and their dog are picking an Orlando win tonight. Accuscore has the Magic winning 64% of its simulations, with 39.6% of those being big wins and an average score of 103.4 to 97.6. CBSSportsline.com's guy went with 105-100. Bulls fan Doug Thonus acknowledged an Orlando win is the expected outcome in his most recent BullsBeat podcast. So let's go get another big, unexpected, mania inducing win, guys - there's plenty of time to lose tomorrow night @ New Jersey.
Check out the Magic's take on the game at Third Quarter Collapse.
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I love the post
The Bulls are the protype for inducing Manic-Depressive illiness. I was flying Friday night and Depressed Sunday afternoon. At times I think we can be in the 6th position and other times don’t think we are any better than Washington. I was at the last Orlando game and we did not compete. I hope tonight is better.
Mr. Optimist's take
Bulls are going to tear this one up, Noah and Miller will mold into one uber Curry-Chandler player at the 5 spot. Tyrus is going to have his hops on fire, Kirk will stop Hedo (who while still not an all star is oddly really their 2nd most important player) and D. Rose and BG will give their normal solid O games (Especially Rose after a brief mini ho hum stint).
Shock the world…..
Salmons will look like the real deal tonight starting at the 3 spot in Lu-yawn’s place.
I’m a Bull’s fan, what can I say I have to be Optimisitc…..I do know we had a chance in Nov to beat them bc of Kirk’s Hedo pressure, but then again D Howard is better than ever….and can’t be stopped and Rafer can be a nifty passer when he plays controlled (which he doesn’t always do).
Drinkin a little early today majoy?
1st you say a Bulls win is going to “shock the world”, which I’m sure means only like the 14 people that read this blog. Then you call yourself a Bulls’ fan. How’s that like? Keepin those Bulls cool must be a job in and of itself. And if you have to be “Optimistic”, you should go ahead and email SBNation and have your name changed permanently.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 1:03 PM CST up reply actions
Nah
Just slow at work today as my boss etc are in a bit meeting that I’m lucky to join tomorrow-Friday….
I needed a slow day though it’s been absolutely isanely busy.
It’s tough being a Bulls fan….
Dammit they found our weakness
So while Miller gives the Bulls a credible inside presence and Salmons is an improvement over Andres Nocioni, whom they jettisoned in the trade, there’s still a glaring weakness in the Bulls organization. That’s the head coach. Vinny Del Negro was awesome, relatively speaking, in NBA Live 97 for Sega Genesis, but he does not appear to be head coaching material, especially not for a relatively young team that needs some discipline. And no, fining players for eating in the locker room does not count as “discipline.” Additionally, the crack team at The Blowtorch found Del Negro’s playbook. It leaves a lot to be desired.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
at least we can laugh along with that one
But still is embarrassing, as a Bulls fan.
"Remember, I'm Italian".
don't double howard
we have to come out and play like we are trying to make the playoffs. and we can’t let them get a lot of open looks at the three. howard might have 45 points and 30 rebounds, but if we are going to win we should not double him.
Completely disagree.
The key is to double him intelligently, i.e. don’t just do it automatically but as part of a plan to take advantage of certain sitiuations on court. Also, if we’re going to double, double hard. We should be forcing him to move baseline and then bring the double from the opposite block and trap him along the baseline. That will make passes cross-court largely unavailable and will only allow him to pass to the corners, where we can rotate down. If we double with the weakside guard, that’s when we’ll get in trouble and give up lots of looks.
But if we don’t double, we better hope that Miller/Gray/Noah are doing a great job not letting Howard get deep position, because if we let Howard run wild, there’s no way we’re winning unless we also shoot upwards of 60% (which is not going to happen).
Just don't double until he picks up his dribble
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Feb 24, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly!
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
Let Howard
push hard with his back to the basket and if you time it right move out the way fast a watch him fall flat on his ass and then stand over him and say “you got knocked the fuck out”. That would be fun to watch.
I agree with you but VDN is not that smart.
Hinrich and Nocioni...
Both are in-prime (or just past???) players with long contracts for a re-building team that get over-used with the explicit reasoning of “matchups” but the implicit reasons of veteraniness.
Where they differ is that Nocioni was horrible on defense and a high-usage, bad player on offense. Hinrich is none of those things so he shouldn’t engender the same sort of dislike. However, it seems that Del Negro also recognizes that he’s better than Nocioni so instead of 15-20 mpg Nocioni was getting, he’ll be getting proportionately more at 25-30 mpg.
Instead of Salmons minutes most likely eating into Hinrich’s, they’ll probably eat into Rose’s and Gordon’s. It’s not Hinrich’s “fault”, but the situation still deserves plenty of ire, if it indeed happens as such.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
I think there's an element of "rookie wall" in there that most fans just don't care about
Derrick is The Guy – people want it to be “his” team (although I hope to high heaven he never develops that Lebron sense of “I am the franchise” – it’s annoying, regardless of whether it’s true). In the game threads, you see people calling for Derrick to be back in and griping about him being on the bench even in his high minute games.
So if Derrick is playing around 30 minutes, even if it’s because he has no energy/legs/whatever and it improves the chances of a W, people are still going to be pissed about it. I know it’s been attributed more to Derrick needing to improve on defense, but I see that as related – it’s bad enough to be a little lost on defense, but if you’re playing without energy as well, and if you’re also not playing great/aggressive offensively to offset the subpar defense….
And yes, I hate that this team reduces me to speaking in cliches. I’m not sure how much to worry about Ben’s minutes, honestly – he did play 40 in the last game, right? But you can’t assume much from a single good game. It will be interesting to see how this plays out once there’s a sample of both good and bad games from Ben to see what Vinny is doing with his minutes.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
Rose looked tired to you?
That’s the worst thing anyone has ever said in the history of this blog.
Anyway, I didn’t get that at all. I mean, what was Hirnich’s excuse for getting beat? I just thought it was T.J. Ford going off.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
Come on Tyger
Surely you and I have had more ridiculous arguments between each other….
Anyway, I don’t think Rose is hitting a rookie wall, as every rookie wall thought I’ve had seems to soon coincide with 3-4 really good games….
I think he’s going to just have highs and lows until hopefully he works on his differences this offseason.
Not "looked" as in a single game - I didn't even see most of the Pacers game
Also, notice I said “even if it’s blah blah blah” – I have no personal knowledge of how Derrick is feeling. But Derrick was talking about needing a break prior to the All-Star break, and he hasn’t really had much of one. The kid played huge minutes early in the season, and even on a low-minute night is playing near 30. People want him to defy all human physical norms
I know a lot of people doubt the rookie wall exists. I don’t. It’s a big physical jump from college to NBA and big mental jump as well. Almost everyone (if not everyone) I’ve ever heard talk about playing big minutes as a rookie seems to believe in the rookie wall. Heck, even guys who have been in the league for years wear down over the course of the season. Doesn’t mean Derrick won’t have good games mixed in there either. Really we’ll never know one way or the other, since there aren’t two Derricks to run an experiment with, but I think he’ll play better in the minutes he does get through the end of the season if he plays closer to 30 than to 40 on average. I’d rather see him focus more on improving the areas that need improving and play 5 minutes less per game than risk totally wearing out.
But I’m honored to have said the worst thing in the history of the blog. I mean, it really is an honor just to be nominated.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
It's one thing to purposefully limit Rose's minutes throughout a game.
It’s another to do it in crucial times. If Del Negro wants Hinrich out there for D (even though, as stated, the very quick PG’s neutralize him), fine. But once Hinrich is being burnt, Del Negro can’t say, “Well, I’d love to put Rose back in, but he’s already at 32:43 minutes so I better not.” Unless, of course, he really did look tired. That’s why I asked.
But still, it’s fine to limit Rose’s minutes, but Hinrich can get 15-20 easy behind him, no? Salmons can get 12-15 behind Gordon and Deng each.
That’s all I’m saying, Hinrich should be limited to 15-20 mpg (as I said above). They should all be at PG. You can help Rose get through the rookie wall (which I wasn’t disagreeing with) just fine w/ Hinrich still playing limited minutes. It’s only when one thinks he needs to play SG, too, that we have a problem (and no, you didn’t say that, but you seemed like we were disagreeing about the number of minutes Hinrich should get and I don’t see where else he gets them.)
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
as to "the worst thing ever..."
just a joke to myself. i have an automatic response. sorry.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
I got it and it was damn appropriate
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
I don't think Derrick should have a hard cap on minutes, by any means, either.
And to me it honestly has nothing to do with Kirk and his minutes, beyond the fact that I expect people to gripe endlessly for whatever minutes about wanting Derrick in the game.
Barring an injury, there are still too many guys who need guard minutes post-trade, and what I hope is that Vinny figures out what is best for the team (mostly for wins now, but considering the future as well) and goes with that no matter whose fans he pisses off. The guys just need to be professionals and deal with it.
So believe it or not, I wasn’t disagreeing with your OP at all, just adding an additional thought it brought up for me. As a fan of Kirk I’d love to see him in a position to play 30+ minutes a night. The Bulls aren’t that position for him.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
I don't see a lot of "need" minutes from Hinrich tonight
Among the players Hinrich should guard, the Magic are missing their best penetrator in Jameer Nelson.
I think tonight should be one night where Vinny cannot use an excuse that he has to play Hinrich for his defensive intensity.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Feb 24, 2009 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
He'll find some way to get Hinrich in there...
Maybe he’ll say how he needs to “adjust to playing both the 1 and 2”, as Ben sits on the bench shooting like 55% for the game"
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
Hinrich
Can and has effectively stopped the Turk before, so I expect that’s the “need” minutes….and I expect Kirk will do well, even giving up the 6 inches or whatever it is. But I like Kirk….
i think salmons (especially if deng is out)
will get the call on turk most of the game, since his man defense is good, and he doesn’t give up nearly the size that hinrich does.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
I can't wait for this game.
is Deng out? I hope so!!!hehehe
There are two types of basketball fans. Those who use stats to fight all their arguments and those who actually watch basketball.
Spot on preview.
I would not be surprised at all if we won tonight and then lost to the Nets. That’s exactly the type of season it’s been.
First post ever
And just hoping Rose recovers from whatever it was that brought him down last game.
Welcome
and it was Vinny bringing him down last game, so you can stop wondering.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
You know, I never really thought of Vinny as a benefit to Derrick before
But it’s sure nice to have people throw that excuse out there for him when he has a lousy game.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
Are you saying that I'm just using VDN as an excuse?
And that whenever Derrick has a lousy game, it’s ok to blame VDN?
That’s not what I meant by my comment and I resent yours if that’s what you were referring to. I was specifically referring to that one game, because Vinny took Rose out 2 minutes into the 2nd half and let the game slip away bc Kirk couldn’t stop TJ Ford.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
Derrick shot 1-9 in the time he was out there
And Vinny reportedly pulled him because Derrick wasn’t defending well. You want to blame the loss on Kirk and Vinny, well obviously you aren’t alone there. But Vinny did not sit Derrick in the midst of a good game, and that in-game performance is on Derrick not playing well.
So I disagree that Vinny is what “brought him down” last game – unless you want to take that extremely literally in the sense that brought = sat, in which case I completely agree that Vinny is literally what “sat” Derrick down last game.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
Rose was shooting poorly - I'll give you that.
But he’s not a shooting guard. His job is to create offense, and he was still doing that, to the tune of 8 or 9 assists before he was pulled. And his 1-9 was deceiving because he missed a couple layups on shots that were altered, he wasn’t just firing up Hughes-like shots or jacking contested 3s.
Vinny should know that Derrick is going to struggle, and as a rookie, he needs to learn how to get through it and get himself started, or get the team going. As a rookie coach, VDN doesn’t realize that. Too bad he doesn’t have a fingernail’s worth of potential as a coach as Derrick does as a player.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
Your talking like Vinny benched him 2 minutes into the second half and never put him back in.
Was it a quick hook? Absolutely – but Vinny put him back in for another 12 minute stretch spanning the end of the 3rd and beginning of the 4th. At some point Derrick’s occasional bad game just that – Vinny is responsible for a lot, but imo it stops short of being responsible for the on court individual bad games of the players in most circumstances. I’ll give him his share of the blame for team performance, with schemes and substitutions and all, but I’m not going to put it on Vinny when individual players just don’t play well.
That certainly doesn’t mean I think Kirk had a better game than Derrick, because if anything his was even worse when you factor in that last horrible stint in the 4th – but Derrick needs to play better than he did Sunday.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
All I'm saying
is that, if Derrick is struggling, he has a 0% chance of finding it from the bench. On the court, he may miss some shots, but he’ll figure it out and go with what’s working. You can’t bench your best player for missing a few shots and go with a guy who is known to have a hard time defending small, quick guards. And that’s what ultimately lost them that game.
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
by Ugh It Live! on Feb 24, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions
To me what's an issue is the old Skiles Tyrus method
If Vinny benches derrick early because he’s not playing well and never puts him back in, yes, I would completely agree with you. I personally don’t have an issue with a coach who benches any player not playing well for a few minutes as long as he puts him back in to work on improving. I don’t think that playing nearly 30 minutes in a game where he wasn’t playing well is grounds for concern, nor to get on the coach’s case.
Could Vinny do better? Anyone almost always can in hindsight.
Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!
NBA observer is spot on saying double only when Dwight picks up his dribble. Otherwise the Magic will sink us with 3's.
I think the Bulls do have a remote chance to win this game where prior to the recent trades they didn’t have a prayer.
The addition of Miller gives them more muscle inside and also 18 fouls to use wisely on Superman who is shooting only 59% from the line. So I think it’s important for Noah to wear him down somewhat as a starter and only use Miller when Howard is on the court (ave. 36.3 minutes per game). Miller can also box out much better than our weaker athletic bigs which should keep him from going over his 14.2/4.4 O rebound average. Howard is (only) scoring 21 points a game, which we can live with, but it’s crucial the Bulls slow down his supporting cast like Lewis and Hedo and the rest of their 3 pt. gunners, if they expect to pull this one out.
And one final, maybe the most important factor to get a “W”, would be if someone can slip a few sleeping pills into Vinny’s powerade at halftime so if the game is close near the end, he will be in slumberland and be unable to screw things up. Anyone with front row seats, how about giving one up for the team. VDN sometimes leaves his bottle on the scorers table as he roams up and down the sideline waiting to yell at Hedo just as he’s taking a 3.
If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard
PS: Kudos to wjb42 for his top notch preview with a special +++ for his awarding Kirk with his own endowment chair
so aptly named “No matter what you do we still don’t want you.” I guess some less athletic white boys can’t get no respect no matter how hard they try but their paycheck makes up for most of the verbal abuse they must endure. He’s probably laughing all the way to the bank, but with the economy as it is, the bank may be gone even before he is.
If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard
by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 24, 2009 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
Miller's going to be key
on both ends. Ok, fouls, but more importantly his offense will bring Howard out of the paint. We need to keep Howard patrolling the perimeter. Take away his shot blocking and limit his defensive rebounding.
In short, lots and lots of Rose and Miller high screens.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Feb 24, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions
Would
a “hack-a-Howard” strategy work, given his poor FT shooting? Have any teams done this before with any success?
"The Zen philosopher Basho once wrote: 'A flute with no holes is not a flute, And a doughnut with no hole is a Danish.' He was a funny guy."
Hmm, with success?
Not really. Howard is so good rebounding the basketball it’s almost impossible to make him less effective.
You could havck him and win, or you could hack him like the Bobcats did and still have go off for 45 points, 18 boards, 8 blocks, and go 73% from the field.
Beating the Magic is all about forcing turnovers, contesting their perimeter shots, and rebounding all the misses. ALL OF THEM.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Feb 24, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions
This is going to be a bloodbath
Maybe they will actually try against the Magic tonight?
Confusion breeds success. If they don't know each other, opponents can't have strategy. GENIUS.
orlando is going to dominate this game
really its simple. We can’t stop what they want to do on offense – get the ball to Howard in the post and feed the 3pt shooters. On the other side, Howard swallows up everything the Bulls attempt to do on the inside in the half court offense. He kills us on both boards, and we never are able to get out into the break. We become a thalf court jumpshooting team against Orlando.
I think our best hope is to get Howard into early foul trouble and look to push the pace so we don’t have to adjust to their half court D. Still, I see Magic 105 – Bulls 87. Hope I’m wrong.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 24, 2009 5:12 PM CST reply actions
First game
I think I will have the chance to see – if I get a link, of course – since that lost to Dallas. And, to be honest, I’m not so optimistic as majoyenrac. Bulls lost almost every game of the season against the four best teams of the conference so far – the Cavs were the exception -, so we probably will end up losing this either… To be honest, I rather lose tonight and win tomorrow in New Jersey. Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and even Atlanta are not from our "championship". Miami, Milwaukee, New Jersey… those are the teams that we need to beat, because they have similar or worst than we
For me it is how we lose the game.
There are losses and then there are losses.
Too bad I won’t be able to watch the game tonight. If I come on here and rant about things I couldn’t possibly know without watching the game someone please give me a slap down.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
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