he posted it on B-R.com blog, I almost posted it, but I’m glad I didn’t because Neil more fully explains things in the blog post and your analysis is generally more concise and easily understandable than my own. Great stuff.

do the Bulls have anybody worth keeping (besides Rose assuming he’s worth keeping)?

develop something similar for coaches. We need this fast. By this weekend would be fine.

and last year he was 2nd in adjusted +/- behind Deng and he’s got the best ORtg on the team, of the players that have been on the team all year (somewhat mitigated by his low Usg%) and the second best DRtg on the team (excluding the new guys). It just goes to show how under-appreciated Joakim is amongst many, many fans.

Finally, I’m a bit surprised by how low Deng’s SPM and pSPM came in because he’s traditionally done great by adjusted plus-minus every year. He’s doing very well by that metric again this year according to basketballvalue.com, again best on the team this year.

Finally going to Sports2’s points earlier about the trades for Salmons and Miller… Salmons has been a positive SPM this year (.09) and Miller (a consistently dominant adjusted +/- performer) is a positive SPM performer and pSPM scorer. We sent out almost all negative SPM performers (Thabo was slightly negative, Noc and Gooden were very bad and we sent them out. Hughes was not negative by SPM, but was negative by pSPM and has been hugely negative by adjusted plus-minus and anyone who has a pair of eyes and watched this team play could see that Larry, Andres, and Drew were all affirmatively harming the team when they played.) I don’t think that Salmons is an adequate replacement for BG, but I am heartened by Kirk’s solid performance in adjusted plus-minus, stat plus-minus, and the Bulls HAVE looked better overall as a team since he’s returned. This makes me think that maybe a platoon of Kirk, Salmons, and Rose can work in BG’s absence. It’s not my ideal solution, but if it leaves us more flexible for 2010 to pursue a real star to pair with Derrick, Deng, Tyrus, and Noah then it’s a sacrifice I’m okay with making.

…I’ve been wary of +/- (particularly when based on a single game), but this looks like it can be helpful. I always find it more fun when metrics tell us something we wouldn’t expect just from the eyeball test, especially when it contradicts something people vigorously claim.

Particularly like the info on Hinrich, since the negative groupthink on this board seems to have set its sights on him now…

The W/L predictions were shockingly accurate… until he explained he used the exact minute breakdown of each team. If you give any schmo who follows basketball the exact minute breakdown of each team for the next season, he could beat any computer projection too.

I don’t know everything about the more advanced stats that have come out in past years, but it seems to me that any of these One Number To Explain Player Value stats are a waste of time. Just an amateur guess here, but I think basketball stats will have to eventually move to quantifying what unique skills a player brings to a team, and then figuring out how the pieces go together, if they’re ever going to mean anything. For example, I could start a business and hire ten of the smartest managerial talents in the city, but if we don’t have someone who knows accounting, or can run machines, or can engineer new products, we don’t have much, do we?

When looking at projected numbers, I think they don’t have as much predictive value when looking at our younger players, who are just getting opportunities to get consistent minutes for the first time. I don’t have the stats, but my eyes have shown me that TT and Noah have been playing much better and their arrow should be pointed upward the more they gain experience. The same goes for Rose. Using these measures to determine how veterans may perform has validity because the likelihood of some vast change in either direction is minimal.

It also reveals what most of us already knew by observation, that Gooden and Noce were disasters, especially defensively and the young bigs improved our defense when they were on the court in spite of making mistakes on covering the pick and roll and adjusting on the fly. I was not surprised that Brad Miller and Kirk had positive stats, since they both have veteran skills which don’t always show up in the boxscores. Granted Hinrich had a horrendous game Sunday (although his +/- was 0), but overall he does provide solid defense against most opponents with his ability to stay in front of them unless they are much quicker then him.

Miller, in spite of his Grayness speedwise, has 3 big S’s going for him. He’s STRONG and can hold position in the paint which helps him get rebounds over more athletic centers, he can SCORE from anywhere on the floor and he has lots of basketball SMARTS, demonstrating many of the tricks that P J Brown used to provide. His court awareness and passing skills will greatly aid our younger players and should create more open looks for Gordon.

I love Deng, but these numbers may lead one to question if he wasn’t vastly overpaid for the skill set he brings. Maybe the new additions will help his game especially with Miller’s ability to play the high post, thus opening up more space for slashers like Luol.

Gordon is who he is, an amazing scorer and a below average defender. But no one can honestly make a case that he isn’t our most effective and explosive offensive weapon. Without him, our ability to put points on the board will greatly diminish and thus JR needs to come up with enough sheckles to keep him from jumping to greener pastures.

Once again Scotter has knocked one out the park with the bases loaded. Please, Vinny put him in charge of your rotations, especially with the game on the line. Statistically, I would guess the improvement in results would be something like 99.9%

I would say that one of the more helpful uses of player statistics would be for the scout and player evaluator to use in watching and evaluating players. The statistics would help the evaluator organize what he observed into a thoughtful assessment of the player.

Do you agree? (or does this go without saying)