Squeezing Salmons into Gordon's Shoes
by YaoPau on Feb 18, 2009 7:39 PM CST
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PrintWith Brad Miller's fat contract on our payroll next season, Ben Gordon is all but gone. Here's how his replacement stacks up.
Scoring
Player A: 21.7ppg, 3.4rpg, 3.6apg, 0.8spg, .2bpg, 2.8topg, 41.3 3PT%, 5.1 FTA, 17.3 PER, 56.7 TS%
Player B: 17.6ppg, 4.0rpg, 3.6apg, 1.1spg, .2bpg, 2.2topg, 41.8 3PT%, 4.2 FTA, 16.2 PER, 57.3 TS%
Player A is Ben Gordon from 2007-2009, Player B is John Salmons in 2009. Both statistics are Per 36 minutes. This is the first year Salmons has had a usage rate over 20%, so a fluke is possible, but it looks like at least has the ability to fill Ben's scoring void.
Defense
Here are their Offensive and Defensive Ratings compared to their teams over the past three seasons:
Gordon (07-09): 109 ORtg, 108 DRtg
Bulls (07-09): 104.8 ORtg, 104.5 DRtg
Difference: +4.2 ORtg, +3.5 DRtg
Salmons (07-09): 108 ORtg, 111 DRtg
Kings (07-09): 106.3 ORtg, 110.4 DRtg
Difference: +1.7 ORtg, +.6 DRtg
"Difference" isn't a great way of comparing, mostly because the Bulls have been so much better defensively than the Kings. But I initially ripped Salmons for playing bad defense (he has 0.0 defensive win shares this season), when in reality he may be the same or slightly better than Gordon.
Defensive adjusted +/- last season:
Gordon: -3.47
Salmons: -2.08
Hmm.
Style
Salmons has the ability to put up Ben-like numbers offensively, but does he accomplish it the same way? Numbers from this season...
Gordon:
79% of his attempts are jumpers, he converts at 52.4 eFG%, and 47% of those shots are assisted
21% of his attempts are in the paint, he converts at 50.6 eFG%, and 33% of those shots are assisted
Salmons:
68% of his attempts are jumpers, he converts at 47.4 eFG%, and 40% of those shots are assisted
32% of his attempts are in the paint, he converts at 63.0 eFG%, and 36% of those shots are assisted
Gordon and Salmons are both able to create on their own. But while Gordon uses 3's and slightly better shooting to increase his overall efficiency, Salmons uses a combination of 3's, an above average jumpshot, and ridiculously efficient inside scoring. That 63.0 eFG% inside is about as good as you'll see in the NBA.
On another thread before the trade, a few of us discussed whether signing Gordon to a short-term contract would be the best move. That would've 1) allowed Gordon to sign a long term contract in a higher-demand offseason and 2) given us a few years to find a more complete player at the SG position.
It seems to me we've accomplished the equivalent of a Gordon short term contract by acquiring Salmons. He's as incomplete as Ben, but unless this season's been a fluke, he has a lot of Ben's offensive talents as well. The more I think about it, the more I like this trade, and I won't feel so bad about losing Gordon this offseason. Rose and Salmons give us one hell of an explosive backcourt :)
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But does it blend?
I hope he’s as prepared for all the wacky VDN “match ups”
"He's not scared to take that shot," Rose said. "That's Larry. No matter what, I don't need to remind him to shoot. He's willing to shoot any time."
I appreciate the work put into this YaoPau, but isn't this a bit of cherry-picking
to use 3 seasons worth of Ben Gordon data versus 1 season of Salmons data? Here’s the LINK to their career numbers compared. John Salmons comes up severely wanting in this analysis AND he’s 4 years older than Gordon and a lesser player.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 18, 2009 8:19 PM CST reply actions
the scoring line is true
but the defensive part he is comparing 3 vs 3.
and i assume he only compared the one season of scoring because as he said his usage rate has never been that high.
not competely defending him, and i agree that ben is far and away the better player (and i stated that before ever seeing their stats), but this stuff is still useful to look at even if it’s misleading. it shows the guy could be somewhat capable, but it certainly is flukey. unless he becomes our starting 2 guard if ben leaves, and then his usage rate will probably remain high, in which case maybe he’ll produce just as well, i don’t know.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
That's why it's squeezing :)
Salmons’ usage in previous seasons was so low that it’s not worth comparing. But 53 games of quality basketball means something, and three straight years with a .550+ TS% means something more. Ever since he same to Sacramento in 2006 he’s been a different player.
I'm not terribly excited about Salmons as BG's replacement, but it's better than Kirk/Thabo/Hughes
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
rec'd
like Evil Pax, we have yet to see if he fits here or not. But he really is quite skilled, and your analysis shows that, despite this only being one season. Let’s hope he continues his superb efficiency.
At least Larry Hughes isn't overrated
APM
I just scanned the obvious APM articles, because I know people love that stat, so I’d be pretty interested to see what folks think about this. Yeah, I know every year is calculated a bit differently and by different people (and the 2008=2009 stat is a two year average from basketballvalue.com) but lets take a look
Yeah, I agree with the fact that Salmons = No Ben.
I just don’t think anyone is gonna be happy with the result.
Here’s adjusted plus/minus, which I don’t think is perfect but everyone loves
Year Gordon Nocioni Hinrich Deng Salmons
2004-2005 6.83 -9.47 -1.7 4.29 -6.65
2005-2006 -0.25 0.28 -1.7 7.57 -5.47
2006-2007 3.03 -2.72 -0.62 5.58 -4.42
2007-2008 -10.16 2.71 -4.56 4.64 -7.18
2008-2009* -2.3 2.44 2.04 4.61 -7.09
The 2008-2009 figures 2 year averages, so the quick and dirty thought there is that it means Kirk and Ben have played a lot better this year than last year.
However, what comes across in every result is that Salmons is consistently bad. Consistently worse than Noc, in fact, who everyone is happy to see gone.
So in a nutshell, if you believe in APM (I’d consider myself a mild but not fervent believer), Salmons is not only a major downgrade from Ben, who should be considered part of the cost of this acquisition, he’s actually a significant downgrade from Nocioni. Because, well, Noc had his uses and had moments of being helpful. Salmons has been consistently dreadful.
Where did you get the numbers from?
I’d be interested to see who’s in the positive on Sacramento if Salmons alone makes up the point differential.
Sources
Year Source
2004-2005 http://www.82games.com/lewin3b.htm
2005-2006 http://www.82games.com/lewin2b.htm
2006-2007 http://www.82games.com/ilardi1.htm
2007-2008 http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2007-2008&team=SAC
2008-2009 http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2008-2009&team=CHI
I'm shocked by that
I’d guess Salmons has the worst adjusted +/- in the league oer the past five years, and I don’t see anything in the stats that sticks out as to why.
Here are the starters with a -3 or worse offensive APM last year according to http://www.82games.com/ilardi2o.htm#table
Al Thornton
David West
Emeka Okafor
John Salmons
Lamar Odom
Bruce Bowen
Rajon Rondo
Ben Wallace
Chris Kaman
Jarrett Jack
Thornton has a terrible TS%, Bowen and Wallace are black holes, Rondo allows defenders to double inside, but the rest of them surprise me. What do Salmons, Okafor, Kaman, West, and Odom have in common? Maybe they’re slow decision makers? All of those guys besides West typically work in isolation – maybe when they get the ball they don’t know whether to swing it or try to create, and that split second allows gaps in the defense to close. They’re efficient scorers, but they aren’t swinging it when they should, hurting the efficiency of everyone else. Again, a guess, and I’ll have to watch Salmons more intently to know for sure.
Any other ideas?
i'm withholding judment until i see him on the Bulls
the only years he’s really played much are last year and this year, and those Kings teams are god awful. if anything, i feel bad for Salmons that his 3 most recent coaches are Reggie Theus, some other guy, and The Hair.
I seem to be the only one here who thinks this trade is pointless at best
Brad Miller is an improvement at center, sure, but that’s only because we had the two worst centers in the league. Aaron Gray sucks and Joakim Noah sucks more. Tyrus Thomas “shows flashes”, but he’s never going to put it together, no matter how hard we want him to. It’s not going to happen. They’ve just thrown away 2008 and all of 2009 for the HOPE they’re going to get someone to come in 2010 – when they won’t, because everyone who will be on the team at that point apart from Derrick Rose is going to suck. So they’re throwing 2010 away too. Great job, Paxhole. I mean seriously, I am so pissed off right now. If my computer didn’t insist on freezing every time I tried to open up that mammoth thread, I’d’ve posted this there. Instead, I’ve got to put it here. John Salmons isn’t screaming “Fluke” so much as “Career Year”, so if we want a guy who can average, 13-3-3, then great.
But this makes this team worse this season, and worse next season. Can someone explain how trading Kirk Hinrich for Brian Cardinal helps when we’re not going to f*cking land anyone in 2010? Can someone explain this?
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
By itself, I agree.
It’s good, but if it means Gordon is gone, I’m not excited. If, however, they find a taker for Hinrich and somehow are able to re-sign Gordon, then it’s a very good trade.
Of course, if one doesn’t like Gordon, then you shouldn’t really care about this trade anyway.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
Two things
1. Word seems to be they’re not going to trade Kirk. He’s playing tonight, so they obviously don’t have a deal lined up.
2. Gordon aside, this does what, exactly, for us? Miller is a very moderate upgrade, but Salmons actually appears to be a downgrade to Nocioni. And probably Thabo, who’s rendered absolutely and completely useless for the rest of his tenure here.
If we dump Kirk (or, praise God, Hughes) I spose I’ll feel better about it, but I won’t feel good. Basically it amounts to us not being able to get cap relief for Noc, which we needed to get.
Um... Miller can pass.
I think that’s more important for this team that has three front court players all have poor shooting range for their positions and are good at cutting. He might “open up” the middle the same as Gooden, but if Gooden didn’t pass (you know, cuz he’s auditioning) to anyone, his opening up is pointless.
And why didn’t you include Gooden and Miller in your APM tables? That’s a positive swing of 9.5.
Plus, getting rid of Nocioni and Gooden assures that there will never be a pair of awful defenders on the court at the same time. Gooden-Nocioni, Gooden-Gray, Gray-Nocioni were all possible, and used, under Del Negro. At least one of Thomas, Noah or Deng will be out there with either Miller nearly every minute.
I think those add up to a more than a moderate upgrade, but even if they don’t, Gooden was a league-average player. Isn’t a “moderate upgrade” from league-average a good thing?
And I don’t see how you keep leaving out that Salmons contract is a year shorter than Nocioni’s and costs less (even if not by that much). You wanted cap relief for Nocioni, I can’t find it. Nobody wanted Nocioni despite what so many said. You think Nocioni was the actual centerpiece of this for the Kings? My guess it was Gooden’s contract for Miller’s, and they were willing to take the extra year because it saved them $7 million this next year. The Bulls may have “needed to get” cap relief for Nocioni, but that contract’s been horrible from the beginning. His play has made it worse.
And of course, if Salmons plays “well” at all, I think there’s at least a 50/50 chance that he exercises his ETO next year. If that happens, they saved $13+ off of Nocioni’s contract. That’s pretty huge.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
Totally agree with you Tyger.
Is this sexy? No, but it is an upgrade. That’s better than nothing. I think people on here only want to bitch. If we had gotten Amar’e, everyone would be complaining about losing TT and how we should be on the lookout to Amar’e to start pouting or something.
And here's the big part: where are Gooden and Miller on your APM?
You claim that Salmons “appears to be” worse than Nocioni and maybe even Thabo, but you say Miller is only a moderate upgrade? If you’re only a mild believer in the statistic, than why use only that stat to make the case against Salmons? If that’s all you use, let’s use it for everyone.
But I have a better idea. Let’s not look at one statistic. Let’s look at more data.
ORtg, DRtg, PER, APM, TS%, OWS, DWS, let’s look at it all for the players that were primarily involved. Over their careers. Doesn’t look great, but it’s not horrible. Over this season. It looks like a very favorable trade for the team this year. If the Bulls make the playoffs, I consider that a very big deal. Will they continue that? Who knows? Gooden and Hughes actually improved after the trade last year.
If we’re only going to use one statistic and have that as our judgment*, let’s use it for everyone. But if you’re “only mild believer” in the stat, then use more. Let’s use all the data. It’s the only fair thing to do. And besides looking at stats, just to make things complete, let’s also look at how they actually play, and give some scouting, subjective information, too.
*I know this isn’t the only thing you use to make the judgment, you also consider salary. As far as evaluating the players themselves, though, it seems to be the only supporting evidence that Salmons is worse than Nocinoi and Thabo.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
Oh, and while I'm mad that it shuts the door on re-signing Gordon....
…I’ve actually been fairly resigned to this possibility since the summer. Hell, even over the last few weeks, I’ve actually been thinking it might be best to let him go. So that’s pretty much a non-factor for me. I assumed they’d go into next season w/ a possible SG draft pick, Hinrich starting, and maybe sign someone to two years to back up. Or something ridiculous. For me, Salmons is that guy. Over pay in that sense? Sure. Drastically change the way I thought this team would go this off-season? Not particularly.
Of course, everything typed here comes from a very cynical perspective of what I thought Paxson and company would do. When you think they’re not going to trade Hinrich or Nocioni and just let Gordon and Gooden walk, this looks a lot better. If you expected them to do something positive, or even “really good”, then yeah, this isn’t that exciting.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
A couple things
- We get 30 games before Miller is auditioning for his next job just like Gooden is now.
- Didn’t include Miller vs. Gooden because I thought it was an obvious upgreade. What is less obvious (or was) judging from folks’ responses, is the quality of Salmons. I alread said Miller was a moderate upgrade. I don’t think that’s controversial. Yes, bigger, better passer, etc. But don’t get all Sam Smith and make him sound like a huge upgrade, because he’s got some serious issues. I did say it’s a good thing to get Miller, but I’m keeping perspective on it.
- Especially when the cost of getting a moderate upgrade there looks like a moderate (or potentially worse) downgrade at SG.
- Post 2010 cap relief doesn’t float my boat. As far as getting rid of Noc, there’d seem to be other ways to do it. Don’t ya think the Kings might have considered sending back Kenny Thomas (2010 expiring) if we’d added Thabo? The fact that something wasn’t done is not a complete indication it wasn’t possible.
- I see the likelihood of Salmons opting out as pretty slim, but hey, surprise me.
- Looking at all the stats, I still don’t like it. I simply pulled the most interesting and hard to find one. And you forgot to include Gordon, since he’s effectively included in this trade.
- I don’t expect anything good, but I’m not going to wallow around pretending John Salmons is good just so I can feel good about things.
Hey, to each his own. Ya see what you want, I guess.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2009 8:07 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt Miller cares as much about his next contract, IMO
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 19, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
Did you listen to his interview in the fanshots?
He was excited (for him, anyway), about going to a team that was winning more games, that he didn’t care about money, as long as he had 100 bucks to buy a case of beer, abottle of whiskey and a couple of cans of chew.
OTOH, Gooden explicitly said that if he didn’t think he’d be in the Kings plans, he’d be auditioning for new teams.
And of course, their playing styles are different making the first bullet point even less relevant. Sometimes people literally make things up to make their points. eh?
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
meh, it's a lot of conjecture either way
I don’t know Miller’s motivations either. Just figuring that since he’s older and has made a lot more money than Gooden already, the next big contract isn’t as big of a motivation.
I do agree with Sports2 that I cannot get excited about Salmons. Especially if he’s not used correctly, which, given the team we’re rooting for, will undoubtedly happen.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 19, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
meh?
Gooden’s auditioning conjecture come from statements he’s explicitly said. Miller’s conjecture comes from the exact opposite of what he’s said. I agree that none of us know, but when you take in all of the available information, the two hardly seem as equal probabilities.
As far as Salmons, I worry, too. I just take issue w/ using APM to put some mild certainty into the idea that he’s worse than Nocioni, yet he doesn’t use it for Miller, w/ the exception of admitting he said he was a “moderate upgrade.” A +9.5 APM is a HUGE upgrade. And if one wants to say it wasn’t that big of an upgrade, then point to other factors as to why Miller isn’t only moderately better than Gooden, then he should do the same for Salmons.
It was just a very inconsistent argument that was made. I don’t like reading inconsistencies from smart people.
Besides, who’s getting excited about Salmons? I’m just not convinced he’s worse than Nocioni. But that’s because I’m not basing my opinion solely on APM.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
*I mean "who is getting excited..." as in "I'm not".
because clearly, some are.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
If Miller can keep the Erick Dampier's of the league
from looking like the second coming of Moses Malone when they play the Bulls, I will be happy with the trade.
yet he doesn’t use it for Miller, w/ the exception of admitting he said he was a "moderate upgrade." A +9.5 APM is a HUGE upgrade.
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
hes not worse than nocioni
i dont think hes a godsend, but nocioni was terrible
by rosefromconcrete on Feb 20, 2009 9:34 PM CST up reply actions
Salmons will start at the 2 next season, and Hinrich
will come off the bench, Ben Gordon in another jersey(let somebody else overpay him)
Here's the problem
Now that I’ve calmed down a bit.
If you are 100% sure the Bulls are going to land a marquee free-agent in the summer of 2010, then this is an absolutely fantastic deal that will be a key to doing this.
If, however, you are of the same mind as me and don’t think the Bulls will get anything better than a #3 guy out of that free agent class because management is incompetent (sure, Chris Bosh and Amare want to play for Vinny Del Negro! Who doesn’t?), then this deal was f*cking awful. There’s no other way to put it. I don’t think you should ruin a team’s playoff chances for the HOPE you get someone in 2010, no matter how large the media market is. If the free agent blockbuster class was in 2011, would this be okay? 2012? 2015? What deliniates “okay to throw away X number of seasons”? I am of the opinion that you never ever do this until you’re mathematically eliminated, and that’s why I absolutely hate this trade.
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
Also
All of you who are trying to convince yourselves that Tyrus Thomas is going to develop into our own Amar’e with the same ceiling are absolutely embarrassing yourselves.
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
You're embarrassing yourself
No one is predicting he’ll be as dominant offensively. He’s already a better defender and rebounder, if he becomes an above average option on offense that’s a very good all around player. And this team is in a better position to make the playoffs now than before the trade. Brad Miller is better than Drew Gooden. Salmons may not be that much better than Nocioni, but he’s cheaper so who gives a shit. Thomas and Noah get more minutes, everyone is happy, the Bulls can easily get the 7th or 8th seed.
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 18, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions
While I'm not so sure I agree with the totality of your post, I'm lovin' that Amare/Tyrus line. Nice!
"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 18, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think this trade has anything to do with 2010
Our 2010 payroll essentially remains the same. Why do you think this trade ruins our playoff chances?
yeah I don't get that... we lose Noc who has been awful and Gooden who has also been awful
and get a pretty solid Center to pair with our young bigs and a swingman who is better than Thabo and Hughes.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 18, 2009 8:55 PM CST up reply actions
Totally with you FS.
This definitely makes us better (if only one step better) for the short term. If it loses us BG, then we have a problem, but we should be better this year.
The Bulls
Are barely good enough to contend for the 8 seed as it is. This move reeks of “sell off, pray someone lands here in 2010” to me. Are the players not supposed to notice it either? Why play hard when your organization isn’t trying to win now?
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
This is a win now trade
Miller>Gooden/Nocioni
by Scotter on Feb 18, 2009 10:42 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
What is win now about it?
The Bulls have improved from the 7th seed at best with Noc and Gooden to… the 7th seed at best with Brad Miller and Ben Gordon’s replacement.
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
Did you want them to tank?
Nothing they did was going to make them a contender before 2010/11. But, I’ve wanted Brad Miller since the summer.
by Scotter on Feb 18, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Have you sent your résumé to Reinsdorf?
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:10 PM CST up reply actions
The whole point is........
Get Derrick Rose into the playoffs. It’s important that he experiences it. Yes they’re going to lose. But just to get a feel for what it’s like is HUGE!
by Johnny"B"ull on Feb 22, 2009 12:34 AM CST up reply actions
Playoffs aren't good enough ES46NE10
Sorry, but I’m not satisfied with this team squeaking into the playoffs just to be trounced by Cleveland or Boston. Maybe we won’t get a player in 2010, but why not try for it? Chicago is a great place for FA. Much better than say, Toronto. Plus this gives the Bulls a legit center in Brad Miller. Still one of the best passing centers in the game. And an upgrade over Nocioni and Sefolosha on the wing in Salmons. So i’d say that our chances of making the playoffs are much better now then they were before the trade.
I would think the Bulls would try to unload Hinrichs contract for expirings. And hope to resign Ben Gordon for a reasonable cost. But I’m sure they aren’t 100% convinced that they can do that, thus why they insisted that John Salmons be included in the deal instead of Miki Moore. Who the Kings wanted to trade to us.
If they can get BG for the same amount that they were paying Hinrich, then they would also have Salmons for less than Nocioni. And have 22 million plus come off the books for 2010 in order to sign a top free agent.
Maybe we won’t get a player in 2010, but why not try for it?
Simple risk-reward analysis would be sufficient here. I think the odds of the Bulls actually landing a free agent of a higher caliber than Drew Gooden is slim to none, (I mean, remember when they were the frontrunner for Kobe and did nothing, or that time they were the frontrunner for Amar’e and did nothing? What’s going to change?), and if that is indeed the case, you’ve just torpedoed no less than five years of Derrick Rose’s career with your “hope” that a marquee free agent will come to play here.
I am perfectly willing to believe that your risk/reward analysis comes out differently, but we shall see.
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
Two things
1.What does trading for people have to do with acquiring free agents? The only time in recent history that they’ve had space, they went and got their first free agent choice, Ben Wallace.
2. What was the alternative? If you believe that Amare was available, you haven’t been paying atttention.
Except it isn't a big risk we are taking
It’s not like we had the fifth or sixth seed and suddenly blew up our team. We were out of the playoffs. This team was going nowhere. Maybe it still is. But you have to shake things up. Gooden wasn’t going to be resigned this summer, so we would’ve lost more front court depth and had nothing to replace him with. Now we have an upgrade in Miller and get him for one more year before the 2010 FA. And yes the Bulls have botched some FA’s before (Benny the Bull greeting T-Mac at the airport?) Are you honestly telling me that getting rid of Nocioni kills this teams chances this year or for the future? If so, please explain.
Now, if you are a BG lover. Then I can understand why this trade upsets you. Because he is pretty much gone unless the Bulls can unload Hughes for some expiring. But again, having Ben Gordon as our leading scorer wasn’t get us very far. And it doesn’t matter getting 20+ a game when the guy you are covering can go off for 30.
Even if we can’t get a marquee free agent in 2010, there will be a lot of quality free agents that will slip through the cracks in 2010. And we will have the room to build around Rose. Surround him with the right players. That’s what this next year and half is. An audition of players to see who can fit with Rose.
OH PLEASE!
Kobe Bryant was NEVER truly available in trade, and would have vetoed (he has a no-trade clause) any trade to the Bulls that would have satisfied the Lakers. This myth should have died long ago.
The Suns took Amaré Stoudemire off the market when they fired Porter.
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
I hope they don't sign Gordon!
I’m so sick of this guy. Gordon is an awful defender, very poor ballhandler, and way too short for a SG. You can’t pay a guy a ton of money who has so many holes in his game. I would much rather have Salmons. I was/am so sick of having short guards. I have no idea why people here like him! My brother and I go to every game and we just role our eyes everytime he makes those silly/stupid turnovers. Also >>>> Yes the only way a Championship is coming here to Chicago in the future is if the Bulls land Wade or Bosh. Otherwise forget it. Rose needs a big time star to land here. So yes taking the chance to clear money for the 2010 class is the only way to go.
by Johnny"B"ull on Feb 22, 2009 12:42 AM CST up reply actions
We like him here because he's an adequate defender [yes, he IS],
and because he’s very, very, historically good at one thing that the rest of our team is really bad at. Who’s better than Gordon? Hinrich? …
How are we going to get somebody in 2010 when our team is composed of crap? Who would want to come here?
"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com
Johnny "B"ull
Thank you!!, thats what I’m feeling, Ben is getting overloved, this guy is so replaceable. I gaurantee any GM would view Gordon as a replaceable player, the NBA is littered w/ guys who score 18-20ppg, guess what the Bulls traded for a guy who avgs 18ppg,
seriously, just shut up already
http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/
by NormVanBeer on Feb 23, 2009 6:14 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The key is
The Bulls have Derrick Rose, a player that FA would want to play with
Really?
Yeah, the free agents are just gonna line up to sign for less to play with a 21 year old PG.
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 23, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions
Huh?
Who did the Bulls lose who was that valuable? Larry Un-Legend? rew Gooen? Andres “Hack and Flop” Nocioni?
If the Bulls had started the season with the current roster, they would have a better record.
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:03 PM CST up reply actions
they've effectively lost Ben Gordon for next year for no value, unless Jerry relents on his
no tax proclamation.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 20, 2009 12:36 AM CST up reply actions
GOOD!
Ben Gordon will never be on a Champions team!
by Johnny"B"ull on Feb 22, 2009 12:43 AM CST up reply actions
Neither was Reggie Miller.
Man, that guy. He SUCKED. Totally all his fault his teams lost, too.
Also see: Ray Allen before the Celtics.
"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com
Those guys are something that Ben will never be
All-stars, Hall-of-Famer, Ben is good, but people are thinking the Bulls will just be God-awful if he doesn’t resign
The Bulls will be worse.
Not god-awful. I did use extreme examples, but Gordon’s a good SG, and unless you think Salmons is going to be that SG for us when Rose becomes an unstoppable force, you want to keep Gordon. [Also, if Salmons is our starting 2, we don’t have a backup 3.]
Also, the fact that the guy’s celebrating that we’re losing Gordon for nothing is retarded. Yay … we lose a good player, and get nothing in return! … Hooray! …
"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com
Rose should get 36 minutes at the point,
with a $2-3M backup getting the other 12. BG and Deng should start at the 2 and 3, with the backup minutes going to Salmons.
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 23, 2009 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
Except a lot cheaper and not exiled to Ecuador...
…and that would be an upgrade if you are keeping score.
This is a good trade. Two solid pieces with some addition by subtraction with the departure of Gooden and Noc. No more excuses for Tyrus, he’s either a stud or toast at the end of the season—-both he and Joakim should benefit from having Miller around.
I am somewhat surprised by all the second guessing of the trade, given the whipping boy that Noccioni (and his contract) have been on this board. Perhaps folks are let down that its not Amare after all the hype? Or maybe a few were suckered in by fabricated Bosh rumors (I was hoping…still am…against hope)? So, even though it is unspectacular—-this does set up Pax’s soon-to-be replacement to have his hands free and take the team in whatever direction they would like.
So, even though it is unspectacular—-this does set up Pax’s soon-to-be replacement to have his hands free and take the team in whatever direction they would like.
Well put, that’s an overlooked aspect of this deal. It really enables the team to go in a few different directions. And when you have a team that isn’t elite, flexibility is very important.
"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 18, 2009 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
Well...not really
Salmons shoots a much higher FG%
by Johnny"B"ull on Feb 22, 2009 12:44 AM CST up reply actions
Bulls would be foolish to not keep Ben.
He is one of the most consistent, top three pointers in the league since coming in 2004.
He’s fourth in the league in fastbreak points this year.
What kind of player do you want next to D-Rose? That seems perfect.
Chicago Bulls Blog anf Forums. NBA Power Rankings.
Where do you find fastbreak points?
I’m learning all these new stats here.
i know they mentioned it on the bucks broadcast tonight
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
agreed
I’m anxious to see what Gar Paxdorf has to say about this. Will he (they) come out with their usual “Ben is an important part of what we’re trying to do” speech? A way has to be found to keep Ben.
http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/
by NormVanBeer on Feb 18, 2009 10:59 PM CST up reply actions
There's only 1 way to keep Ben
That’s trading Hinrich to the Wolves by tomorrow afternoon.
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 18, 2009 11:02 PM CST up reply actions
Here's a deal that gets it done:
Bulls send out: Hinrich (T-Wolves) and Thabo (Grizzlies)
T-Wolves send out: Jason Collins and Rashad McCants (Bulls)
Grizzlies send out: Kyle Lowry (Bulls)
It gives us 9 million in expirings (from Minnesota) along with the added bonus that we send out less salary than we take in and Minnesota and Memphis are both significantly below the LT so they can afford to do it. We also get a cheap young PG to play behind Rose, and a rotation so clear that even Vinny couldn’t screw it up.
Rose (36) / Lowry (10) / BG (2)
BG (33) / Salmons (15)
Deng (33) / Salmons (15)
Tyrus (32)
Miller (32) / Noah (32)
Now that’s a rotation!
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 18, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions
This is exactly what I'm hoping for,
with the T’Wolves middle first-rounder thrown in.
Lowery, Salmons, and Noah are all good defenders and excellent players for the second-stringer. With that team we’re young, our payroll is lean, and we’ve got a tight rotation with defined roles. I love it.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
Oh, come on,
he’s getting 2 minutes. Two. Basically nothing. :P
[I’d rather play Lowry there too, but … two minutes.]
We can’t do the trade now anyways, since we threw Thabo out, though perhaps we could trade the pick instead.
"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com
Maybe Paxson will pull out his speech from before the 2007 Trade Deadline (that or 2006)
Of not many people can score like Ben in the league. Allen Iverson is the only one I can think of. But Ben’s so short, my nuts are in a vice!
Chicago Bulls Blog anf Forums. NBA Power Rankings.
I want a defensive player next to Rose...
…perhaps one with a three point shot…but if I am adding a one dimensional player next to Rose, I would prefer defense to shooting all day…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 18, 2009 11:36 PM CST up reply actions
when Kobe is free, then call us
http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/
by NormVanBeer on Feb 19, 2009 10:31 AM CST up reply actions
Kobe will likely be a much lesser player by the time the Bulls new core
(Rose, TT, Noah) hits their prime in 2 to 3 years – he has already played over 33 thousand minutes in the NBA. By comparison, MJ played 36 thousand minutes for the Bulls, and was a shadow of himself for the last 5 thousand minutes of his career with the Bullets Wizards.
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:28 PM CST up reply actions
oh I know this...
but D2 seems to know who the M2GWCSAD is, so I’m waiting to see what name he tries to pull out of his ass next :-)
http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/
by NormVanBeer on Feb 19, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
You don't want
2 short guards in the backcourt together. It worked with Jordan/Pax because Michael was 6’6"
by Johnny"B"ull on Feb 22, 2009 12:45 AM CST up reply actions
Two more trades I hope happen in addition
I know this may be asking too much for such a short period of time but.
1) Unloading Kirk on either Minnesota or Portland
2) Trading Hughes to Washington for Etan Thomas and Mike James. A rumored deal that has been on ESPN for sometime now.
I kinda like the Washington option...
…except it puts the Bulls into luxtax land, which means they won’t do it. Plus, I am kinda getting enamored with the idea of having the two biggest expiring contracts next year. If Hughes stays out of the clubhouse, or can behave, there’s some value in keeping him…
Over his career he is much better as a starter than a sub
which bodes well for him as a stop gap SG, but is a little concerning if we do keep BG.
Hollinger
2007-08 season: Just call him T.J. Ford West. Salmons reacted horribly to coming off the bench after a strong early-season stint as a starter and stayed in that funk any time he wasn’t in the first five, leading to some breathtaking starter-sub splits. On a per-40-minute basis, Salmons averaged 18.4 points on 49.7 percent shooting as a starter, and just 12.4 points on 43.0 percent shooting as a sub. The splits on the peripheral stats were just as bad, with his 3-point percentage nearly doubling. He had 40 games a sub and 41 as a starter, so the sample size is about as robust as you can get, too.
I found the same thing when I looked at his career stats. Salmons has alternated between bench and starting roles for most of the past three seasons, and has played vastly better as a starter in each.
Overall, he ended up having his best season as a pro — perhaps due to a career-high 41 starts. He focused much more on slashing to the hoop rather than spotting up for 3s — something he’s not all that good at anyway — and was very effective at it. Salmons took nearly three quarters of his shots from within 10 feet and converted 52.8 percent, a strong percentage for a guard. He was mistake-prone, ranking 56th out of 63 shooting guards in turnover ratio, but his shooting percentage and scoring average both blew away his previous career highs.
Scouting report: In addition to his slashing ability, Salmons is a very good defender who can guard three positions. He’s quick and has good size at 6-7, and ranked in the top third of shooting guards in both blocks and steals per minute. The Kings often used him as the primary stopper against elite scorers, even when Ron Artest was on the court with him, and he held his own in those matchups.
Offensively, he likes to attack off the dribble for layups or short-range jumpers. He’s a mediocre spot-up shooter and isn’t a good shooter off the dribble, plus he tends to have high turnover rates because he’s driving into traffic so much. However, he’s a good enough dribbler to play point guard in a pinch.
2008-09 outlook: With Artest gone, the starting small forward gig appears to be firmly in Salmons’ possession, and based on his career splits his numbers could take another boost forward as a full-time starter. Salmons isn’t going to be a star, but he could average in the mid-teens with a decent shooting percentage, and between that and his stellar defense it makes him a very valuable player.
Emphasis added. Very interesting, guess Hollinger isnt too surprised about his success this year. Still don’t know what to expect from him. Stuff like the APM doesnt really seem to mesh with most peoples impression of him(doesnt mean its wrong, of course).
That's through 50 games
He’s been average for his entire career.
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 18, 2009 11:10 PM CST up reply actions
Sounds like a compliment to Rose...
…a very good defender who can guard three positions, while shooting 41% from three…
" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem
is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger
by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 18, 2009 11:39 PM CST up reply actions
It's weird, I checked some Kings forums to find Salmons analysis
and they all seem to think he’s a great defender. Raja Bell similarly has a 109 career DRtg and low defensive win shares and he has a reputation as a stopper, so it’s possible. Battier, Artest and Bowen also seem to have less defensive win shares than they deserve. Maybe Salmons’ stats are shitty because he only plays whenever the other team’s best player is in? I don’t think adjusted +/- accounts for strength of opponent lineups, I could be wrong.
I don't see how there's any way that they could adjust for the qualiy of playing against starters and not
and even the people who created adjusted plus minus rankings will tell you it’s not a perfect system.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 18, 2009 11:46 PM CST up reply actions
In regards to Battier/Bowen/Artest
I’m not sure how D Win Shares are calculated, but perhaps Bowen’s numbers are deflated because Tim Duncan would dominate that stat on SA?
I actually want to watch Salmons for a week or so before admitting he’s a good defender and an outside shooter. Perceptions of players are so different depending on which team they play for.
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 18, 2009 11:48 PM CST up reply actions
Yea i was thinking
that i wish this trade happened a week ago….so we couldve seen what the roster could do and then trade out more pieces…..can we send hughes to the knicks for jerome and malik rose (both expiring contracts) that would give knicks a sg they need, and us more capspace to sign bg….
Rose 36/Hinrich 12
Gordon 32/Salmons 6/ Hinrich 10
Deng 32/Salmons 12/Thabo 4
Tyrus 36/ Noah 12
Noah 24/ Millar 20/ Gray 4
Jerome James and Malik Rose sit on the bench…..and keep it nice and warm
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Feb 19, 2009 12:01 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah I think there's something to that
In seven years in the league, not once has Salmons been in the rotation on a playoff team. He was playing alongside Iverson and Webber in Philly and Udrih and Kevin Martin in Sactown – not the greatest defenders. If it’s true that he’s a stud defender, then we’ve pulled off a dandy.
Maybe he's finally the
M2GWCDAS or whatever that acronym was.
When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer
Actually thats exactly what APM tries to do
This is exactly what the adjusted plus-minus stat does: it reflects the impact of each player on his team’s bottom line (scoring margin), after controlling statistically for the strength of every teammate and every opponent during each minute he’s on the court.
So it’s definitely a stat that is of some interest. Of course, it may have anomalies or misrepresent certain outlier types.
I think theres some flaw in the adjustment under extreme situations.
Looking at your list, it seems like all those players are either in very good or very bad situations.
It depends on who you ask Yao
There are people who think that he was a step below Artest defensively (such as me), and there are also people who thought that ability didn’t necessarily translate to greater team defense (again I qualify). What Salmons is not, if anything, is a vocal guy.
If the Bulls play him significant minutes, and ask him to do the things he can really do, which may or may not happen with VDN around, then perhaps this trade is a stretch for the Bulls. To be quite honest though, I don’t think the Bulls had much to lose with this trade. It’s not like losing 9 million dollars of salary for a team with no real cap room to speak of next summer is going to hurt them long term. In fact, they’ll save money on this deal if Salmons opts out in 2010. So in a way, I"m not too concerned about Chicago’s long term financial future when Miller’s expiring, and Salmons may opt out of his deal. (Or, at worst, his contract expires in 2011.)
I think the Bulls would be wise to decide whether Salmons or Gordon is their guy (sounds like Gordon is not), and whether he can fit long term with Rose & Deng. I think Miller will be much more effective in Chicago because of Tyrus’ athleticism and Noah’s defensive abilities.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....
Bulls done
Don’t get your hopes up. Kirk isn’t being traded today. He will have more value in the offseason to be traded. I will miss Noce. Noce wouldn’t have been so disliked if it wasn’t for his contract. He is a very effective 12-18min a night player. Moving the contract gives the Bulls flexibility today and leverage against Gorden in the offseason.
I agree Thabo should be shipped out for a 2nd rounder.
Maybe we will see a Hughes trade to free up more money this year, but for the most part this is the roster. Enjoy.
Ben Gordons staying in Chicago will now be in HIS hands.......
and I think he will leave. I think they know this. Ben is not going to get the money he wants here. I hope I am wrong, but I think Ben is leaving because he is tired of the BS…..esp after Deng got paid and ain’t doing shit now and he had to settle.
It leaves a bad taste in the mouth for management. Ben is also auditioning for other NBA teams and I think some teams will be tempted to snag him. In the right place Ben could take a team that is good over the top.
if he doesn't get moved today
he might find himself on the bench for the rest of the season with Salmons taking over.
That'd be stupid.
They want to win some games, don’t they? I don’t think they have any intention of playing “games” and simply want to put the best players out on the court to win games and make the playoffs. Gordon is clearly the best player.
Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!
Coming off the bench.
If the Bulls don’t see him in their future what would be the point in starting him? They’ll use him as a sixth man at best.
I have to be honest...
I’m amazed at all the people who are so ready and so confident that John Salmons can fit into BG’s shoes. Who the heck is John Salmons? Seriously. Ben Gordon right now is having the best season of his career and has at least started for a playoff team. Unlike some people, I’ll wait until Salmons plays before judging him or his game but my gosh, the Bulls bring in a guy who’s over 6’6 and we’re ready to give him the starting 2 guard spot. The guy who needs to be worried is Luol Deng because of how he’s played this season. Yeah if I’m Gordon I’m definately getting out of Chicago because he can’t win for losing. There’s always someone’s always telling a guy who is better as a starter than a 6th man that….he’s a 6th man. Go figure.
But
he’s tall!
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying." -- Michael Jordan
by bennythebull on Feb 19, 2009 1:03 PM CST up reply actions
Well,
then Dils is amazed at you.
"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com
One pint - BG with the Kings would be scoring 25+/game
He is much better than Salmons at the 2. Stats lie sometimes.. Salmons will be lucky if he gets double figures with the Bulls.
why is that?
BG was the first option on the bulls, salmons was sitting behind kevin martin – i’d imagine he’d get the same amount of shots here
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
sorry
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
I hope I am wrong Illini.
If he does well then that is great. I am a Bulls fan and we need a 18+/game scorer to add to BG and Derrick. He was getting 39 mins a game. He will take the Noc minutes 15/game maybe. When you play for a bad team it is sort of like closing baseball games for a bad team when it really does not mean anything. It is difference in the mentality of players that can make shots when it counts. the Kings don’t count.. they are the worst team in the league. Playing in the west, means that he faced bad defenders almost every night.. getting fat on the other useless teams like the Clippers, Warriors, OKC, Phoenix and evne Dallas. I think the pressure in Chicago is much greater. He might be a better comparison to Deng. With Salmon and even Tim Thomas, Deng can look bad. Our 70Mil superstar is going to get exposed. Under pressure to compete, he wilts.
yeah that makes sense
didn’t think about the fact that we have more depth, hence less minutes
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
why is that?
BG was the first option on the bulls, salmons was sitting behind kevin martin – i’d imagine he’d get the same amount of shots here
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
The Shampoo-Nirvana crowd strikes again!
(Full disclosure – I have a BS and MS from UIUC)
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions
yeah we're not a creative bunch
damn state school education (BA, JD this May)
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
I'll drink to that! ;)
One pint – BG with the Kings would be scoring 25+/game
Maybe we can?
by Granny Waiters on Feb 19, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
If he can't score that w/ the Bulls,
what makes you think he could score that w/ the Kings
It sounds like someone else
has read Basketball on Paper. Now maybe try watching Basketball on Hardwood.
by messwiththebull on Feb 21, 2009 10:16 AM CST reply actions
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