Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Ohio State And Florida Target 2013 Receiver Recruits

Suns blog "Valley of the Suns" enlisted another "stat guru" blogger to dig deeper into whether Amare actually sucks at defense and rebounding.

about 3 years ago Rose_rainn_tiny arjoseph 14 comments 2 recs  | 

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Prior to reading

This idiot’s guess at the excuses in order of appearance.

1) The Suns don’t play team defense
2) Amare’s teammates have never been very good defenders
3) Amare’s never been asked to focus on defense
4) D’Antoni
5) Shaq

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Feb 11, 2009 11:39 AM CST reply actions  

Well, at least part of your post was right
This idiot’s guess

We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan

by snley on Feb 11, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

well said.

NBAO, you’re even weirder than normal recently.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 11, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Just playing to NormVanBeer's discontent

It’s still good fun. At least I hope it comes off that way.

This is still a game.

PS: How do you like this close for the Amare post?

A word of caution to the Amare bashers out there, sometimes you don’t realize what you have until it’s gone.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Feb 11, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions  

your a douche

don’t try to pass off your being labeled as “weird” on a debate with me…a debate which you had no points so you made up some

http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/

by NormVanBeer on Feb 11, 2009 3:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Also, I'm not a metrics guy

so pro and con arguments are more difficult to engage when there are so many readers that display supreme confidence in numbers.

I’m searching for assumptions made in the metrics to exploit them. Most of the time the writing is poor making them more obvious.

For example…

he’s a pretty poor help defender he’s not terrible playing defense one-on-one.

In other words, an asset no starting NBA power forward should be without. Unless the whole league is scoring which it is not.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Feb 11, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions  

That portion isnt part of the metric tho.

The statistics in question do not account for help defense.
They make that pretty clear

Granted, this kind of analysis does not take into account help defense, which we all know isn’t a Stoudemire strong suit by watching him play, but in terms of pure one-on-one defense he might not be as bad as we all think.

by reprisal on Feb 11, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions  

But, relying on this metric to make definitive statements about

Amare’s individual defense is pretty poor. There’s fairly large fluctuations year to year in counterpart production. Drawing strong conclusions from a single year of any defensive metric is a bad idea. Just working with the type of stats they were using. This year when Amare supposedly doesn’t care his PER counterpart is around 15. Last when he did care it was above 20, which was the worst on the Suns. This year’s PER counterpart is the lowest of his career. Do you believe that Stoudemire is playing the best individual defense of his career right now?

Stats are useful for evaluating defense, but it requires multiple types of defensive statistics and multiple seasons worth of stats combined with visual scouting of the player.

by Scotter on Feb 11, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Scotter, what say you about Amare's being on the top of the Suns' DRtg hierarchy

(save for Marion)? Isn’t that a pretty good indication that he’s actually a pretty good defender, but his teammates probably make him look worse than he actually is? Steve Nash is a defensive sieve, so is Barbosa, with those guys playing big minutes with STAT they still managed to be a league average (or so) defensive team for several of his years there?

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 11, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions  

damn it, that should have read "on top of the Suns' DRtg hierarch, almost every year

he’s been there."

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 11, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Didn't Scotter say before DRatings for big men

Are almost always lower than those of guards regardless of who’s better?

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 11, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions  

yes, but there's some evidence (based on APM) that big men matter more

to team defense than little guys. So it might not really matter that much. My larger point is that he’s almost always been just a little ways off Marion’s DRtgs and Marion, especially during his time as a Sun, was a world class defender.

Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger

by fundamentallysound on Feb 11, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions  

I think one problem with evaluating Amare's defense is that the Suns played

a defensive system as much as they played an offensive system. The goal was to encourage jump shots and never foul. You can run off made baskets, especially if they come early in the shot clock,but you can’t off of made FTs. It’s well designed and plays on the natural desire of players to take open shots.

The problem with Drtg is that it’s forced to give everyone the same credit for team defense. Players get credit for defense they didn’t play. So the only thing differentiating the players on the team is their steals, blocks, and rebounds. Those are categories that Stoudemire is pretty strong in. So for instance in 2006-07 Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas had the same DRtg. So Thomas’s better rebounding neutralized Stoudemire’s better steal and block rates. But, general consensus is almost universally going to agree that one of those guys is a better defender than the other. And I don’t think the general consensus would be wrong about that.

So you have to go to 82games and get a sense for what happened when each guy was on the court. In the two years Thomas played for the Suns, they were 7 and 5 points better per 100 possessions on defense. The Suns have been worse with Stoudemire on the court defensively every season of the Nash era, including about 3 points worse in 06/07. So it’s a good bet that Stoudemire is getting credited with Thomas’s defense by Drtg. When the defense is worse with you on the court every season, that’s not a good indicator. Nash has been just a little worse than neutral so he’s isn’t likely to be the one dragging Amare down. (Until last season Nash and Marion also always had significantly better raw +/- overall when all three played a full season than Amare)

When I combine the plus/minus stats with the unimpressive PER counterparts and the assessments of people I trust, I don’t know how I can say that Amare is even average defensively. That still means he can be better than the general opinion of his defense, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable claiming that Amare is even average. The good news is that he has always still been a net positive because of his stellar offense, but his defense has really limited the magnitude of his impact. He’s generally been a +2 in both raw and adjusted +/- where Nash and Marion were generally +5 or better. And a big part of that is that the Suns were able to replace Amare with Kurt Thomas or Boris Diaw without losing much in overall team performance.

Here’s a one other thing I wonder about. Stoudemire collecting 4 fouls per 36 minutes in a system where you’re encouraged not to foul isn’t a good sign. It fits with a lack of defensive discipline that I’ve seen from Stoudemire. What would happen in a defensive system where he has to be more engaged and he’s asked to protect the rim? A good portion of his fouls are offensive, but that isn’t great either. There aren’t many great scorers that play good defense when they’re in foul trouble.

by Scotter on Feb 11, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Well certainly

I was just trying to clear up that part.

I do think these stats are a bit more interesting then the raw counter part PER figures, but still certainly not anywhere close to a perfect defensive stat.

I also think theyre a lot more interesting when considering then the Suns problems(as per source post) then considering how good Amare’s D might be if he came to Chi. Since his method, counter part PER, and the 3 or 4 times Ive caught a suns game this year all seem to suggest to me that the Suns plenty of other problems heaped on top of Amare’s D, whether it is avg, just below avg, bad or terrible).

by reprisal on Feb 11, 2009 6:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Chicago Bulls.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

112_small
Bulls at Boston Celtics: Game Preview #30
Small
Making a Play for Pau

Recent FanPosts

Blogabull_s_small
Around the NBA 2/11: Lin vs. Rubio
Drose2_small
Bulls at Charlotte Bobcats: Game Preview #29
Monkey_small
Bulls at New Orleans Hornets: Game Preview #28
Nba-media-day-2011-12_small
Sad Bogans
Hinrich_rose_small
Throwing Shit At the Wall or Its Trade Machine Season
Zack_ryder_small
Around the NBA Thread 2/5; I Don't Care About The Super Bowl.
Small
Kyle Korver: The Importance of Warming Up the Hot Sauce
Small
Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks: Game Preview #26

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Links

"Best NBA Blogroll"
-- Dan Shanoff

The Essentials:
Bulls.com
NBA.com
HoopsHype
BallHype
ESPN.com NBA

Workin' the Beat:
KC Johnson - Tribune (blog)
John Jackson - Sun-Times (blog)
Mike McGraw - Daily Herald (blog)
Nick Friedell -  ESPNChicago.com
Sam Smith - Bulls.com
Aggrey Sam - CSNChicago.com


More Bulls Blogs/Forums:
Thank You Isiah
Chicago Bulls Podcasters
Bulls Confidential
By the Horns
Bullish Thoughts
Chicago Bulls KY
Pippen Ain't Easy
RealGM Bulls Forum
SportsTwo Bulls Forum

Blogging the Association:
(League Wide)
True Hoop
HoopsAnalyst
Give Me the Rock
The Basketball Jones
NBA Fanhouse
Hoops Addict
SBNation.com - NBA
ProBasketballTalk
ShamSports
Ball Don't Lie
The Painted Area


(Team-Centric)
Queen City Hoops

Bobcats Baseline
Knickerblogger.net    
Sixers' Shots
Forum Blue and Gold
SuperSonicSoul
Hornets247.com 
SonicsCentral.com 
ClipperBlog.com  
The Nugg Doctor
Loy's Place
Reds Army
Need4Sheed
THE WIZZNUTZZ
RaptorsForum.com
TWolvesBlog.com
Spurs Dynasty
David's Memphis Grizzlies Blog
The Bratwurst
Sixers Journal
Sixers 4 Guidos 
3 Shades of Blue  
CavsNews.com
RaptorTalk
Deceptively Quick
TheLakersNation.com
Utah Jazzer Blog
KnicksDefense.com
T. Jose Caldeford
Hoopinion
RaptorBlog.com
Suns @NBAWeblog.com
The Cowhide Globe
Stepien Rules
Project Spurs
Raptors Republic
Dino Nation Blog
Lake Show Life
Valley of the Suns
The KnicksBlog.com
Big Lakers Fan
Roundball Mining Company
Cavs: The Blog
48 Minutes of Hell
Daily Thunder
Piston Powered
The Two Man Game
PistonsNationBlog.com
Cowbell Kingdom.com
Hot Hot Hoops
NetsAreScorching
Celtics Hub
Orlando Magic Daily
Philadunkia
Truth About It
Always Miller Time
Slippery When Nets
Eight Points Nine Seconds
Howlin' T-Wolf
Red 94

MSM NBA blogs:

Ira Winderman (Heat)
Jason Quick (Blazers)
IndyStar.com (Pacers)
Michael Cunningham (Hawks) 
Full-Court Press (Pistons)
Jonathan Feigen (Rockets)
Rick Bonnell (Bobcats)
Jazz Notes
Chris Herrington (Grizzlies)
Orlando Sentinel
Michael Lee (Wizards)
Alan Hahn (Knicks)   
Doug Smith (Raptors)
Marc Berman (Knicks)
Al Iannazzone (Nets)

For the Statheads:
Basketball-Reference.com
APBR Discussion
Knickerblogger's Stat Page
82Games.com
Doug's Stats
Popcorn Machine
HoopData


Other Resources:

HoopsHype Salaries
SportsTwo Salaries
ESPN.com Trade Machine
RealGM: NBA Draftpicks Owed
ShamSports.com Salaries
DraftExpress

 


Guy who does everything

Blogabull_s_small your friendly BullsBlogger