STATistical Analysis of Amare's Defense and Rebounding
Suns blog "Valley of the Suns" enlisted another "stat guru" blogger to dig deeper into whether Amare actually sucks at defense and rebounding.
about 3 years ago
arjoseph
14 comments
2 recs |
Comments
Prior to reading
This idiot’s guess at the excuses in order of appearance.
1) The Suns don’t play team defense
2) Amare’s teammates have never been very good defenders
3) Amare’s never been asked to focus on defense
4) D’Antoni
5) Shaq
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
Well, at least part of your post was right
This idiot’s guess
We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan
by snley on Feb 11, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
well said.
NBAO, you’re even weirder than normal recently.
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 11, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
Just playing to NormVanBeer's discontent
It’s still good fun. At least I hope it comes off that way.
This is still a game.
PS: How do you like this close for the Amare post?
A word of caution to the Amare bashers out there, sometimes you don’t realize what you have until it’s gone.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Feb 11, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
your a douche
don’t try to pass off your being labeled as “weird” on a debate with me…a debate which you had no points so you made up some
http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/
Also, I'm not a metrics guy
so pro and con arguments are more difficult to engage when there are so many readers that display supreme confidence in numbers.
I’m searching for assumptions made in the metrics to exploit them. Most of the time the writing is poor making them more obvious.
For example…
he’s a pretty poor help defender he’s not terrible playing defense one-on-one.
In other words, an asset no starting NBA power forward should be without. Unless the whole league is scoring which it is not.
12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.
by NBA Observer on Feb 11, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
That portion isnt part of the metric tho.
The statistics in question do not account for help defense.
They make that pretty clear
Granted, this kind of analysis does not take into account help defense, which we all know isn’t a Stoudemire strong suit by watching him play, but in terms of pure one-on-one defense he might not be as bad as we all think.
But, relying on this metric to make definitive statements about
Amare’s individual defense is pretty poor. There’s fairly large fluctuations year to year in counterpart production. Drawing strong conclusions from a single year of any defensive metric is a bad idea. Just working with the type of stats they were using. This year when Amare supposedly doesn’t care his PER counterpart is around 15. Last when he did care it was above 20, which was the worst on the Suns. This year’s PER counterpart is the lowest of his career. Do you believe that Stoudemire is playing the best individual defense of his career right now?
Stats are useful for evaluating defense, but it requires multiple types of defensive statistics and multiple seasons worth of stats combined with visual scouting of the player.
Scotter, what say you about Amare's being on the top of the Suns' DRtg hierarchy
(save for Marion)? Isn’t that a pretty good indication that he’s actually a pretty good defender, but his teammates probably make him look worse than he actually is? Steve Nash is a defensive sieve, so is Barbosa, with those guys playing big minutes with STAT they still managed to be a league average (or so) defensive team for several of his years there?
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 11, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
damn it, that should have read "on top of the Suns' DRtg hierarch, almost every year
he’s been there."
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 11, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't Scotter say before DRatings for big men
Are almost always lower than those of guards regardless of who’s better?
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 11, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
yes, but there's some evidence (based on APM) that big men matter more
to team defense than little guys. So it might not really matter that much. My larger point is that he’s almost always been just a little ways off Marion’s DRtgs and Marion, especially during his time as a Sun, was a world class defender.
Vinny discovers frontcourt by accident. Someone re-smash Gooden’s groin!
- your friendly BullsBlogger
by fundamentallysound on Feb 11, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
I think one problem with evaluating Amare's defense is that the Suns played
a defensive system as much as they played an offensive system. The goal was to encourage jump shots and never foul. You can run off made baskets, especially if they come early in the shot clock,but you can’t off of made FTs. It’s well designed and plays on the natural desire of players to take open shots.
The problem with Drtg is that it’s forced to give everyone the same credit for team defense. Players get credit for defense they didn’t play. So the only thing differentiating the players on the team is their steals, blocks, and rebounds. Those are categories that Stoudemire is pretty strong in. So for instance in 2006-07 Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas had the same DRtg. So Thomas’s better rebounding neutralized Stoudemire’s better steal and block rates. But, general consensus is almost universally going to agree that one of those guys is a better defender than the other. And I don’t think the general consensus would be wrong about that.
So you have to go to 82games and get a sense for what happened when each guy was on the court. In the two years Thomas played for the Suns, they were 7 and 5 points better per 100 possessions on defense. The Suns have been worse with Stoudemire on the court defensively every season of the Nash era, including about 3 points worse in 06/07. So it’s a good bet that Stoudemire is getting credited with Thomas’s defense by Drtg. When the defense is worse with you on the court every season, that’s not a good indicator. Nash has been just a little worse than neutral so he’s isn’t likely to be the one dragging Amare down. (Until last season Nash and Marion also always had significantly better raw +/- overall when all three played a full season than Amare)
When I combine the plus/minus stats with the unimpressive PER counterparts and the assessments of people I trust, I don’t know how I can say that Amare is even average defensively. That still means he can be better than the general opinion of his defense, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable claiming that Amare is even average. The good news is that he has always still been a net positive because of his stellar offense, but his defense has really limited the magnitude of his impact. He’s generally been a +2 in both raw and adjusted +/- where Nash and Marion were generally +5 or better. And a big part of that is that the Suns were able to replace Amare with Kurt Thomas or Boris Diaw without losing much in overall team performance.
Here’s a one other thing I wonder about. Stoudemire collecting 4 fouls per 36 minutes in a system where you’re encouraged not to foul isn’t a good sign. It fits with a lack of defensive discipline that I’ve seen from Stoudemire. What would happen in a defensive system where he has to be more engaged and he’s asked to protect the rim? A good portion of his fouls are offensive, but that isn’t great either. There aren’t many great scorers that play good defense when they’re in foul trouble.
by Scotter on Feb 11, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well certainly
I was just trying to clear up that part.
I do think these stats are a bit more interesting then the raw counter part PER figures, but still certainly not anywhere close to a perfect defensive stat.
I also think theyre a lot more interesting when considering then the Suns problems(as per source post) then considering how good Amare’s D might be if he came to Chi. Since his method, counter part PER, and the 3 or 4 times Ive caught a suns game this year all seem to suggest to me that the Suns plenty of other problems heaped on top of Amare’s D, whether it is avg, just below avg, bad or terrible).














