Plan C (or D? or E?): Go Young.
I don't believe for a second that a major free agent comes to Chicago. Not Chris Bosh, who could pair with Yao Ming and the cohesive Rockets in his native Texas. Not Dewayne Wade, who can lure Carlos Boozer to South Beach just by batting one of his disconcertingly effete eyelashes. And certainly not King James, who can either keep playing for a title contender, or go to what everybody calls Basketball Mecca (though why I don't know, considering they suck). No, chances are that our 2010 dreams end in either Joe Johnson or David Lee. Or neither.
I'd prefer neither.
Go young. It's simple, it's realistic, and it's cheap (and judging from YaoPau's recent post, this may be what matters). It will entail taking on a few aging, bloated pseudo-stars. It will also entail tossing our 2010 plans into the same bonfire to which was consigned the Elton Brand, the Twin-Towers, and the Hustle & Grit Plans, respectively.
This is why I think going young might actually work this time.
Reason numero uno is Derrick Rose, who I still believe has both the ability and desire to be a top ten NBA player, perennial all-star, and eventual NBA champ. I believe this not so much because of his recent domination of the athletic (and good) Atlanta Hawks, but because I recently checked out some old highlights. And it was obvious that he's been playing hobbled. Here's how athletic Derrick is: working at about 75%, he's still an "athletic" point guard capable of putting up decent numbers with a mismatched and bad supporting cast. He certainly fooled my ass - I thought he was healthy. He's not. Just getting there.
Then I got to watch a little of Chris Paul, who's recently back from injury. He was going against the Raptors, a poor defensive team, and getting killed. Offensively, defensively, every which way you can get killed, Marcus Banks killed him. Marcus Banks. Which pretty much cemented, for me, the necessity of judging players when they're healthy.
Reasons 2A and 2B are Joakim Noah and Luol Deng respectively. I don't need to elaborate except to say that they've played at a high level for much of a blighted year. Especially if Luol continues to shoot three pointers well and adds volume, there's no reason to think he can't be a good fit with Derrick. And with one more summer at Venice Beach pumping iron, Joakim Noah will be an absolute beast. He's bordering on that now.
The upshot is that Derrick Rose (21), Luol Deng (24) and Joakim Noah (24) are a better nucleus that Kirk, Ben and Luol ever were. More talent, more size, more upside. Give them the right complements, and they could win big.
Reason 3 is that the players to complement that nucleus are available now, and we likely have the resources to get them. Here's what I have in mind.
- Start with Anthony Randolph. I've had the misfortune to watch quite a few GS games this year, and his lack of playing time is hilarious. Just bizarre. He's more talented and polished right now than Tyrus is, with a scorer's mentality that would be terrific next to Noah. He can post, shoot from the perimeter, and run the floor. He rebounds at a high level and defends the paint. Need us to take Maggette off your hands? Fine. Tyrus + Jerome James + James Johnson for Randolph and Maggette. Corey isn't bad off the bench, gets to the line, and can run (when so inclined).
- Jerryd Bayless. For some reason, Portland only plays him when everybody else is hurt, and that reason is that everybody else is awesome. They've got a glut of talent, but they've long loved Hinrich, and they're looking to rid themselves of Andre Miller, who was a poor fit from the start. Hinrich for A. Miller and Bayless. Once Rudy gets back, they're again looking at the best backcourt in the league. And Bayless would be a tremendous asset off the bench for us, a scorer who gets to the line and pushes the ball. Miller would play 10 minutes behind Rose, and twirl his weird musketeers' mustache for 38.
- The draft. This is pretty much the perfect set of players for the Bulls' needs, deep at shooting guard and power-forward. Favors, Johnson, Henry, and Turner are just a few of the players I've seen who could fill a role for us. There are also some brutes available (Pittman, Cousins) who wouldn't be half bad behind Noah.
- Coaching. The Trailblazers are the Blazers not just because of Brandon Roy, but because of Nate McMillan. We need an experienced, successful coach who can construct plays out of a time out, teach players, and command their attention. Nothing against The Black, but he just isn't that guy. Despite being Italian.
- The 3rd Tier Free agents. There's going to be some bargain hunting in the summer of 2010, because for as many players who get mega bucks, others will get screwed. Players like Mike Miller, shooting 56% from 3, could be had for a song. So sing, Jerry. It won't cost a thing.
* * *
Anyway, that's what I'd like to see instead of waiting for 2010. Give me a deep team headlined by elite young talent and a coach to lead them. Give me scoring off the bench and three point shooters to spread the floor. Just please don't give me David Lee and another decade of first-round exits.
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I'll pass
the Bulls have no chance at developing a team. Give me Joe Johnson and 47 wins, it’s basically a necessity after all the crap we’ve had to watch due to the 2010 ‘plan’.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 10:32 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Ouch.
I’ve been out of the loop this year…but I still think JJ would be a whopping dissappointment.
Anyway, what exactly prevents the Bulls from having a chance at developing a team? The coach? Gardorf? It seemed pretty straightforward in Portland, Atlanta and Oklahoma City. The got a crapload of young talent and a coach. And waited. What’s different with us?
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
Well, unlike those teams, the Bulls give away talent instead of accumulating it
They had their potentially young team when Rose was drafted, then they fucked it all up by firing VDN and letting Gordon (and soon to be Thomas) walk. I think they just need SOMETHING at this point. Joe Johnson is overpaid at the max, but so what? He’s good, we need any kind of good players.
At that point with him making the max and Deng already at $11-$12m, and extensions for Noah and Rose coming up, the Bulls will never be contenders unless they pay the tax. But that’s likely the case always. But they’ve already proven they can’t commit to developing young talent, so they have to overpay for someone elses.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
But the Bulls *have* developed talent
From 2003-2006 they were the best in the league at it. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon, Nocioni weren’t supertalents, but the Bulls were 5/5 in developing these guys into NBA starters, and by 2006 every expert was on Paxson’s jock.
When Ben Wallace was brought in with Hinrich’s/Noc’s/Gordon’s/Deng’s extensions pending, the plan had to be to eventually go into the tax if the team contended for a couple years. The only way out was to let Gordon or Deng leave for nothing, which would’ve been media suicide if the Bulls were a 50+ win team.
It wasn’t too long ago when you said you didn’t want 45 wins every year, you wanted the Bulls to be Celtics/Lakers good. Joe Johnson gives us that 45 win team.
by YaoPau on Dec 21, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Current teams record with a real coach
The one thing that people are forgetting when projecting wins with whatever FA may come…. Vinnys isnt going to be here. the Bulls were around 500 last year and still could finish around 500 this year with Vinny…. what would a good coach do with Derrick and the rest his season… 45wins in a real bad east after the top 5?
So you start with 45 wins with this roster and a competent coach… and add Joe Johnson to that… I think that gets you up to a battle for 3rd/4th in East.
Well if your goal is a #4 seed for the next five years, go with Joe
Adding Johnson to a team that has “45 wins in a real bad east” doesn’t get excited for a title run.
I don't see why the franchise has to stop building once they get Joe Johnson
who says that’s the end? I do not understand this obsession with pegging teams as ‘locked into mediocrity’ just as soon as they get good but not great.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
I only peg the Bulls
To get Reinsdorf to pay the tax, we have to get really really good without the tax.
Add JJ, and I think we can agree that for a couple years we’ll be good but not great. Well after Johnson’s 1st year, Noah’s extension will kick in. After Johnson’s 2nd year, Rose’s extension kicks in.
By that time, that’s ~$18 million for Johnson, probably around $36 million combined for Rose/Noah/Deng, for a $54 million total for four guys, with contracts rising the year after that. I just don’t see how the Bulls turn that into a lasting contender, which is what Reinsdorf would need to see to pay the tax. Unless we can pull of a Gasol heist with Taj/JJ/Hinrich, or nail our #10 pick this draft… we really don’t have the pieces.
yeah, well we were wrong in '06
they ‘developed’ a 45 win team then, and Deng looks pretty much the same he did as a rookie. How did they help Gordon’s career? CHRIS DUHON!?
And the plan was explicitly NOT to go into the tax when they signed Wallace, since they dealt Tyson Chandler before Wallace could get off the plane.
I figure it’s harder to jump from 35 to 60 than it is from 45 to 60. I guess the Celtics did the former while the Lakers did the latter. But at least with the latter there’s some competent basketball. Plus doesn’t Joe Johnson have some crazy-good APM or is that no longer the flavor? :)
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
think of it this way
11 years, 13 lottery picks, 2 guys signed to an extension, zero all-star appearances.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
wow
"...but the devil lives inside this kid, I swear it. It rises out of him in a mist, this baby-faced defiant wrathful version of Pat Kane, escapes his bodily confines to perform satanic miracles all over the offensive zone. The only thing more fearsome than that assist was the keep-in preceding it. The only thing more unholy than his face is his black magic." GMH
Gordon had a 14.7 PER and .528 TS% his first two years
Since then he’s a 17.5 PER, .565 TS% guy, and bonafide 20ppg scorer. I’m not sure that happens if he’s buried his first two years.
Duhon was a 2nd round pick who now starts. How often does that happen in the NBA? And it’s not like Duhon came in fully developed. He had a 9.8 PER and .471 TS% his rookie year.
You mention the Celtics, but the Celtics did what I hope the Bulls will do. The Celtics from 2002-2005 were the Bulls from 2006-2009. About 42 wins every year, a couple playoff runs, without any hope for a title. Their pieces were Paul Pierce, an unproven Al Jefferson and Delonte West, a buried Kendrick Perkins and a bunch of overpaid average vets (Walker, LaFrentz, Ricky Davis, Payton, Blount, Fox). They probably could’ve gotten another decent vet and continued their run of decentness, but instead they went young.
By 2006-2007, 10 of their top 12 guys (Pierce, Wally World) were 25 or younger, and they showcased guys like Gomes, Telfair, West and Green on a 24 win team. Their perceived value rose, and the next year they flip them with Jefferson and a 1st for Garnett and Allen. Bang, boom, championship.
The Lakers are such an odd exception (we don’t have Kobe, we aren’t getting Gasol for Taj) that I’m not sure that’s even a blueprint.
I know it's all hypotheticals, but....
…who are the equivalents:
Rondo
Pierce – Rose
Jefferson – Deng (???)
Perkins – Noah
Garnett
A) We have to hope Rose becomes as good as Pierce. He’s not, but he needs to be for this to work. Second, Deng is older than Jefferson, taking away part of the “promise” label. The Bulls don’t have anyone on their roster not listed that is as good as Rondo.
They should go young right now. Trade Hinrich and/or Salmons for cheap young guys that they think could blossom.
Or, sign someone like Nowitski outright, keep Deng, Rose and Noah, higher a new coach and hope Rose takes off in year 3. Hope they fail, get a Top-3 pick and can trade James Johnson for ….
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
They never had Jefferson and Garnett at the same time
I see what you’re saying though, so here’s what I see as equivalents, comparing the 2007 Celtics to what the Bulls could be by the 2010 offseason.
Celtics/Bulls
Pierce:Rose
Rondo:Noah
Jefferson:Deng
Perkins:Tyrus
Gomes:Taj
Gerald Green:James Johnson
Sebastian Telfair:Our 2010 1st round pick
5th overall pick (Jeff Green):Our Top-5 2011 pick if we sign nobody this offseason
It’s not exact, but we can get pieces in a hurry. And if we give JJ and Taj and our 2010 1st big minutes, a package with them and Tyrus or Deng or 2011 first would look mighty enticing.
haha
the 2011 plan. It begins!
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
*forgot Delonte West
Although he’d be pretty easy to get an equivalent for, either by trading Hinrich or Salmons for a late 1st or by signing a young guy in 2010 (Morrow, Amir Johnson, Shannon Brown).
the contracts don't hold up.
Jefferson was on a rookie deal, so he’s not equivalent to Deng at all.
Perkins was signed to something like 4/$12m, Tyrus is a restricted FA.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions
(I still don't understand how Minnesota didn't get Perkins in that deal)
or Rondo.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions
maybe that's the real key
find a former Bull to gift-wrap us someone. Hoidberg? Any lost Reinsdorf sons out there?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
Except
MJ is anything but grateful to Reinsdorf. I don’t believe for a second that he’d give the Bulls a good deal. Besides, I don’t want anyone on his team but Gerald Wallace, who’s has one of the most undervalued non-rookie contracts in the league.
he likes paxson though...
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
You need big contracts to trade for guys though
Theo Ratliff was included in the Garnett deal. Wally World in the Allen deal. I don’t think Deng’s/Tyrus’ contracts are a major deterrent since any trading partner would likely be trading a max guy.
really?
Deng is the farthest thing from an expiring contract. Tyrus literally has no contract.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
Well the parallel involves trading them before the '11-'12 season
so Deng would just have three years left, and he’d still be just 26.
But your point was that Jefferson was on a rookie deal, so he’s more valuable than Deng with his contract. But Minnesota had to take on Theo’s contract to make it work, then Jefferson’s 5 year / $65 mil extension kicked in the following year, so there really wasn’t any cost savings.
So basically, I agree that Jefferson > Deng (the Bulls have some advantages in that parallel too), but I don’t think contracts would factor in as much. If I’m trading away a star on a max contract, I’d welcome a 26 year old Deng as a piece in a big package in return.
About Garnett....
…I mean that there needs to be a player that’s one of the ten best in the league that can be had for the likes of Luol Deng and a Top-5 pick (more or less), that is, at a steep discount.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
yeah, this is an interesting parallel*
Rose could be Pierce in the scenario, but I don’t think a prime Garnett or Allen (or their equivalents) would be as geeked to play with Pierce as they would be with a still-developing Rose.
Nobody is Pierce on the Bulls. You could be the optimist and say Rose is close-ish and Noah=Jefferson.
But it could be even more likely that Rose = Jefferson and they’d have to deal Rose to get a Garnett-level star back. (like my Chris Paul idea)
And they won’t have a top-5 pick like the C’s did
And Rondo was on a rookie deal and Perkins had a very modest extension, where our young supplementary player is Luol Deng who makes $11m a season.
*doesn’t hold up even as an initial premise since the Bulls have no dynamic guy leading the basketball decisions (like Ainge, who’s pretty good plus controls all media), and an owner not paying the tax.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
I agree it doesn't.
That was more my point. It works in vague generalities, but when you get to comparing specifics, A) it’s not the same situation at all and B) the Celtics still relied on a great deal of luck in getting a Top-10 player at a big discount.
(I equated Jefferson and Deng because I thought Jefferson was at the beginning of an extension. Obviously wrong. I like the Noah = Rondo idea, though. two guys who are excellent at everything BUT scoring, which thus, underrates them tremendously in the general public.)
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
He hasn't played that well since his third year.
If he gets back to that, sure.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
i think the comparison can work
but the Bulls have to be willing to deal Noah AND Deng. In fact, you could argue that given what the Celtics did, and given the Bulls impending 2010 free agent hunt, the Bulls SHOULD trade Noah with Deng or Hinrich to land a star if they can.
Noah/Deng=Jefferson/Celtic garbage in this scenario. I mean, Jefferson has a pretty high profile now, but at the time he was traded, Jefferson was a frequently injured young player who was the best guy on a 15 win team. And he was the centerpiece in a trade for arguably the best power forward in the NBA. The Bulls have two things working for them with a Noah/Deng package
1.) the bulls don’t have to land a player as good as Garnett was to be in a good position. Stoudemire, Bosh or Al Jefferson would be enough because the Bulls would than be following up the trade with a major free agent signing.
2.) Those star players the Bulls would be trading Noah/Deng for have considerably more leverage to choose where they want to play than Garnett. The Bulls could be in a position to sign a guy outright and than force a sign and trade, thereby leaving intact their cap space.
Pretend the Bulls organization was well run and had a clue for a second.
If the Bulls can package Noah with Hinrich or Deng and acquire a star, they could than have enough money and “juice” to go after a 2nd max free agent in the summer. Like the Celtics acquiring Ray Allen with lottery picks, the Bulls could acquire their “Ray Allen” with cap space.
For instance, if they did the Noah/Deng for Jefferson and expiring trade the Minnesota fan proposed or a Noah/Deng for Bosh trade, they would than have cleared out enough cap room to bring in another major free agent like Johnson, Wade or even Lebron.
If the Bulls are willing to part with Noah/Deng for Bosh, who is going to have a better package to offer Toronto than that? Don’t they have to strongly consider that offer if they know Bosh is likely to leave in the summer? And won’t Bosh want to get the highest salary and most years possible while still be able to persuade Wade, Johnson or Lebron to come play in Chicago?
With a Bosh-Rose core, the Bulls could than renounce Tyrus, hope that Salmons opts out, an with just Taj-JJ-Rookie contract on the books make a full run at Lebron and Wade. Doesn’t Bosh-Rose look better for the future than either of their current support casts? The key is packaging Deng/Noah for a star, instead of holding onto those guys like they can never be replaced.
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 21, 2009 11:36 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It worked great last summer
when there were rumors swirling that he Raptors would at lease have listened to real offers for Bosh and we could have had:
Bosh ~ Garnett
Rose ~ Pierce
Gordon ~ Allen
Deng ~ Rondo
Hinrich or Salmons ~ Posey
(I generally assumed we’d have to have offered our two picks, Noah, and one of Hinrich or Salmons, and perhaps our 2010 pick). But still, that gets us the core of a roster that’s about as close as you can imagine to the Celtics. But young.
But that ship has sailed.
First, if we pulled a trade like that, would we even be able to field a team around Bosh and Rose?
Second, I don’t know that that’s what the Raptors would want anymore. Remember that they doubled-down on Bosh and signed up a host of guys to long deals Bargnani is young, but also Hedo and Jarrett Jack.
Do you want to be the Raptors that trade Bosh away for Deng and Noah but are sitting on Hedo’s contract? Probably not.
Do you want Hedo coming back to the Bulls? Probably not. 31 year old guys on $50M contracts sort of upsets the “get our Ray Allen” with cap space plan.
So I think I might be inclined to believe you a little more if you can figure out a better deal for the Raptors. Even then, I don’t think that deal is as good for anyone as it was last summer.
I think when Bosh tells the Raptors he is leaving
the Raptors will take back the best package in a sign and trade. Hedo can play the 2 or be traded. Deng is a much better fit with Bargs long term than Hedo.
I don’t think the Raptors pass on getting the most talent possible. What team that can sign Bosh is going to come up with more talent in a sign and trade than Noah and Deng? Certainly not the Knicks. I think Noah/Deng trumps Beasley by a mile. Houston and New Jersey don’t have the talent or the contracts to make that trade work. I think that package is better than anything Portland could come up with it. So in short, I think Noah/Deng may be the most talent Toronto could fetch on the open market.
Regarding filling out the roster, the Bulls would still have Bosh-Rose-JJ-Taj-Draft pick and a crap load of money to spend. They could also bring back Tyrus for the qualifying offer. But I really wouldn’t worry too much about filling out the roster – that is going to be problem if we get a max free agent, no matter how we get him.
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 22, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
heck I throw them James Johnson
for even more cap room.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 22, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
I don't see why the Raptors would solely look at talent
and ignore their contract situation or fit.
And are we talking about now or this summer? I either case, if Bosh is calling his shot, he’s probably going to pretty strongly influence the process. If he says he wants to go to Houston, the Bulls can pretty much go pound sand regardless of what talent we offer. If anything, that’d be a detriment, because the star is going to want to go to the best possible team.
If history has shown us anything, it’s that when superstar players move, the team they leave rarely gets anything close to a market return.
A few points
1. I think the Raptors would rejoice at having Deng and Noah. First, the Raptors have had a history of being unable to attract and retain African-American stars. T-Mac, Carter, Bosh – they all seem to force their way out of town. I think Toronto is like Utah or the Clippers. They can clear out all the cap space they want, very few free agents want to go play in those places. I think having Deng under contract and Noah under a rookie deal would really appeal to them. They fit with the international flavor that roster has started to take on and they could both be around long term.
2. It could be now or in the summer. I don’t think it really changes the equation, it just makes it a time crunch if this is done in the summer. If the trade is done now, its done with the risk that Bosh won’t sign. If it is done in the summer, it is done with the risk that you won’t be able to sign Bosh fast enough to get another max free agent.
3. You are right Bosh will have to want to come to Chicago. But that is true in any scenario. Most of these 2010 free agent scenarios depend on the Bulls being fantastic salesmen.
4. This is the best sales pitch I can think of to get Bosh (outside the Bulls completely turning the season around). – By having the assets to force a sign and trade, we can offer you more money than any other possible destination.
- We are the 3rd biggest basketball market in the country, we regularly play on national tv even though we are awful, and we would make you the head guy and promote the hell out of you.
- We will team you with an unselfish point guard brimming with talent and his grisled, steely back-up.
- We have enough cap space to sign another max free agent or to sign a couple of lesser free agents (Josh Howard & Haywood for example) and fill out the roster.
I think this is better sales pitch than “we finished 10th in the horrid East but we have an improving Rose-Deng-Noah core that we will be locked into for the next 5 years and, btw, we can’t pay you more than anyone else.”
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 22, 2009 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
I mean, it is a good pitch...
And if we called up the Raps tonight, offered them Deng + Noah for Bosh, and they said yes, I’d certainly be happy.
But I look at the Raptors, and I see
1- Calderon, Banks
2- Hedo, Jack, Belinelli
3- Deng, DeRozan
4- Bargnani, Amir, Evans
5- Noah, Rasho
That’s a team in luxury tax territory going nowhere fast. I understand and agree with your point that this team can’t hold on to players (which is weird because Toronto is actually a really big, really fun city). But really, if I’m this team, I’d consider blowing it up. Noah, by the way, will be up for an extension this summer, so it’d be very possible that he doesn’t hang around long. I know he’s French and Swedish, but he’s voiced a pretty clear preference thus far for the NBA jet set.
I agree that Deng would fit the international flavor. I just don’t think he fits in all that well with them. Maybe they wouldn’t care though.
Finally, I think there are lots of teams out there that could mount very solid offers. Portland has a ton of talent sitting around. I’d willingly trade Deng for Rudy Fernandez. They could offer Bayless, Rudy, and one of Oden or Aldridge.
The Heat could offset the fact that Beasley is a lesser player by taking back crummy contracts (Hedo would actually make some sense for them, for example).
I guess it comes down to opinion, but I’d rather have 2 guaranteed years of Beasley and a financial clean slate to work with than a mediocre team at the luxury tax level filled with hard to trade players. Even in Toronto.
If you can get a Rose/Bosh duo, you do it and figure the rest out later
There’s always teams willing to trade decent vets for rookie contracts, there’s always vets looking to sign with a contender for cheap.
by YaoPau on Dec 22, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
very risky
but I like it.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 22, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
"Pretend the Bulls organization was well run and had a clue for a second."
That sums it up for me. What you suggest would be good if that were the case but since they aren’t well run and have no clue, even if they pulled that off, they would turn around and fill out the roster with crap.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
They became fine player YaoPau but
Not winners, bulls must upgrade. And while Ben Wallace didn’t play well he was basically a scapegoat as most of the team could not step up. And still our best year lately had him on board
by JustAnotherFan on Dec 28, 2009 6:44 AM CST up reply actions
I'd rather have Joe Johnson
than Wade. I actually think signing a FA 2 guard is as big a priority as finding that post-up 4. Joe Johnson’s game should last for another 5 years, he has PG skills and court vision to take pressure off Rose and to improve ball movement, he’s a deadly shooter with excellent size and will spread the floor, and he’s a legit #1 guy, you expect him to carry you and be the go-to-guy with the game on the line.
I think he’s a better fit than Wade and is an elite level FA. I don’t think Atlanta overpaid for him when they signed him a few years ago. He was the foundation block for the change we’ve seen that team make over the past few years.
by messwiththebull on Dec 27, 2009 8:33 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah I agrre with YFBB
I don’t see why so many here are against Joe Johnson. He may be the easiest to get considering that he’s a marquee player who’s rarely acknowledged as such because of where he has played. The Chicago market gives him that. Finding players that fit with Rose is key.
I keep thinking about Rose’s comments the other day about him taking over games. He said that he’s a PG and he needs to get others involved. I really think that’s what he patterns himself as. Fans and media want him to be Dwayne Wade but maybe he’s just a rare breed of PG where he can take over and facilitate and that if you find the right pieces he could shine brighter?
I think JJ is the perfect fit at the 2 spot and I don’t totally disagree with some of your other ideas in terms of rebuilding. But getting a guy like JJ gives Rose the type of high powered piece he needs to be most effective.
I actually don't even like Joe Johnson that much
but if there’s a chance to get him just do it. If we go into free agency saying only Wade, LeBron, and Bosh are worth the max, then they won’t get anyone. And then what? Tyrus back on the Qualifying Offer, and it’s the 2011 plan?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Ok I got to know
Why don’t more people like Joe Johnson?? It’s driving me nuts! lol. I think he’s a better fir with Rose than Wade and he may be easier to sign.
If Rose was a star right now, and if we were a 45 win team, I'd love Johnson
But the Bulls won’t be ready to compete until Rose is actually good, and that could be a couple years away. Joe Johnson will be 29 next offseason. If we bring him in, we’ll win 45 games for the next couple years, get two more mediocre 1sts, and then when Rose figures it out, Johnson will be on the wrong side of 30 and earning the max. I don’t see that becoming a title team.
It could if he ages somewhat well
and the Bulls suck it up and overpay for some more good players after Johnson is here.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
Well with that logic
a soon to be 28 year old and sometimes injury prone Dwayne Wade is out of the picture then. That also means Kobe would’ve been too a couple of years ago. I think JJ’s skill set would be fine with Rose.
And to your other point about Rose not being good yet… That’s the reason you sign a veteran FA like JJ. So a player like Rose can develop and nurture his game as oppose to having him play with a terrible head coach and fillers like John Salmons.
and we have to bank on Rose being good, soon
otherwise there’s little chance of anything anyway.
Though I do wonder how Johnson’s game will age. He doesn’t seem to be relying much on athleticism as is, I guess his defense could slip. Could he be a poor-man’s Paul Pierce into his 30s? That’s not too terrible.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
I was just about to write that Joe
should age well.
Great shooters age the best of all players. Look at Reggie Miller, look at Ray Allen now at 35 years old.
Your shooting touch does not just go away. Combine that with JJ being 6’7 and he will always be able to get his shot off against SGs, with or without screens. He doesn’t drive to the basket much as evidenced by his 4 fta per game, and that’s fine since him spotting up at the 3 point line while other’s drive is exactly what’s needed. He’s the guy that makes you pay if you collapse on the guy that’s driving.
His Defense will start to slip, but I don’t see that happening much before he’s 32, or mattering much as great defense is more about the scheme anyway. I hate to refer to the celtics again, but look what they do with a bunch of older guys. I believe Noah can become the anchor that Garnett is with a better defensive coach.
I would obviously prefer Bosh or Wade, but I could talk myself into optimism with JJ on the squad.
They didn't ahve Kobe a couple of years ago.
It was Hirnich, Gordon, Wallace, Deng, Nocioni
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
JJ isn't at the same level as Kobe/Wade
JJ’s a 18 PER guy, Kobe/Wade are at 25-27. Kobe/Wade could tail off with age and still be perennial all-stars. If JJ tails off, he’s an average starter.
As for JJ helping Rose develop, what’s the evidence for that? Plenty of stars began their careers without pieces (Durant’s an easy example) and turned out just fine.
All I know is JJ just
is a 3 time all-star who’s averaging over 20 points per game for a team that’s one of the best in the NBA. Not to mention he just hung 40 on the Bulls. As far as Rose’s development, I think helps because I’ve seen what Rose looks like with a productive 2 guard that has 3pt range and can demand a double team and I like what I saw. Stats not withstanding, I think you’re underestimating JJ a little bit.
As far as Durant. Look Rose is a PG so I think people should get use to it. He’s not this guy that’s going to put up 25ppg and why would you want him to? His needs as a player are different then an all out scorer like Kevin Durant. I don’t think it helps Rose’s development to be stuck playing with a 2-guard as inconsistent as John Salmons. I think it only helps his development for Rose to be surrounded by players that are defined in their roles and consistently perform.
by Dils on Dec 21, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think JJ's very good
But Kobe and Wade are 1st ballot hall of famers.
But I looked at some numbers. In the last 30 years, 16 shooting guards (filtered as guards > 6’4" not named Payton or Kidd) have played >5000 minutes from ages 31-33 with a PER over 15.
Five of those players were mostly 3pt shooting role players by that stage in their careers (Allan Houston, Dell Curry, Dale Ellis, Brent Barry, Danny Ainge). That leaves about 11 players in 30 years who arguably earned max money. Some did it by being hall of fame talents (Jordan, Drexler, Carter), but others did it by relying heavily on the 3pt shot in starring roles (Richmond, Miller, Allen, Jones).
Could JJ still be good at age 33, or at least until age 32 when we could trade his expiring contract? I think he’s got a good shot. He has the size, passing and 3pt shooting ability that should help him still be effective even as his athleticism starts to go.
Giving him a big 5-year deal probably isn’t a terrible investment.
yeah, I think it's high-floor
I bet he ages better than Michael Redd, for instance.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
he's not that efficient of a scorer
and he’s the ‘ball stopper’ we supposedly don’t like.
He’s better than Gordon, but not THAT much better. Add the factors of age and contract and it’s closer to a wash. But if they get nothing it’s a disaster.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Well you just made the best argument for JJ
He’s better than Gordon even if not by much. I’m a BG fan and I know what I saw last year. I saw one of the best young offensive back courts in the NBA. That’s what Rose is going to need to maximize his value. A prime time 2 guard who can be where he’s suppose to be on the court, demand a double team and nail big time 3s and big shots. That was BG. That is JJ plus he’s 6’8 so he can post up and he plays pretty good defense. If he can stop Rose from getting an inbound pass then that’s good enough for me. lol
Joe Johnson is not 6 feet 8 inches, what kind of ludicrous measurements are you using?
Think about it this way, the Bulls will likely hand out a max contract who’s best years might already be behind him, and at his peak he’s still not a top three shooting guard.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 21, 2009 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
He can pass for 6'8"
measured at 6’6.75" as a 19-year-old. if he grew even 1/4", calling him 6’8" (since all players are referred to as there “in-shoes” height) is easily acceptable in my book.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
LOL! You make it like
I was confusing him for Mugsy Bouges or something. He’s close to 6’8. By the way, who are the top 3 shooting guards in the league if not Joe Johnson. Besides even if he isn’t, I think a top 5 shooting guard would fit in nicely with Rose.
This has him listed as 6'8" actually
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo02.html
ESPN and NBA.com say 6’7" so it’s not like he pulled that out of his ass.
Fan of the Chicago Cash Cows formerly known as the Bulls
He's way better than Gordon
Joe Johnson is essentially a scoring PG. He doesn’t have much athleticism, lacks a first step and doesn’t get much elevation. He takes a lot of contested shots because of this, thankfully he’s 6’ 8" and he’s still shoot better than 44% from the field. This part of his game should not age poorly, and may actually benefit over time from playing with a playmaking PG. He initiates the Hawks offense as the PG much of the game. He can post up smaller guards. He creates shots for him and others. He’s a good defender, a fairly smart defender who doesn’t have or rely on the athleticism that fades over time. I can’t for the life of me fathom anyone saying he’s not that much better than BG having after having watched both play.
From a PER perspective he may not be the most impressive but look at his last two January’s where his game just hit a wall. Take that month out over the past two years and his PER may become more aligned with what one may expect.
by messwiththebull on Dec 27, 2009 8:50 AM CST up reply actions
The Joe Johnson point is so logical
During all of this 2010FA talk I’ve gone in circles figuring out why Wade/Amare/Bost wont/will work, what if everyone stays on their teams vs. what if all the FAs sign with eachother…ect. The idea about Joe Johnson wanting a big market ( for advertising/notarity) seems more sound than all of the other FA speculations. With this thinking NY or Chicago are his options… problem is can someone tell me if Diantoni overlapped with him in Pheonix would that be a reason for him going to NY?
This is what I would do
After the season, I would get in touch with Wade and James Agents to find out where they stand. If there is any doubt that the Bulls could be a player, I would make a direct b-line to Joe Johnson. The Bulls can’t afford to not come away with a FA that can fit with this team.
I'm not sure D'Antoni is as great a selling point as he once was.
Steve Nash is making a pretty solid argument that the success of the Sun’s was not at all tied to the coach. It was just tied to letting Nash do whatever he wants.
by silentpete on Dec 21, 2009 5:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
They’ve tried that offense in Toronto and now NY. It does seem that you need Nash more than you need the offense.
As it turns out, in the NBA it’s more important to tailor your offense to your players, than to come up wit some scheme which works in ever occasion.
Toronto's offense is one of the best in the league.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Instead of attributing credit to only one person, it'd make more sense that Nash was the perfect guy to run D'Antoni's offense.
Alvin Gentry was an assistant for those 7SOL years, this isn’t exactly uncharted territory for him.
Would you criticize Phil Jackson if he tried to implement the Triangle Offense without any superstars, and it failed?
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 22, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
While NY and NJ are distracted with LBJ
the Bulls should go in and make an offer to JJ, prioritize him, make him feel special. Then they become more marketable for that FA 4 that will still be out there, one of which will probably end up in Miami.
I don’t think the Bulls will have a shot at LBJ, Wade, or Bosh. More like Joe Johnson, Boozer, and perhaps Amare. I think they have to get 2 out of those 3 somehow if they’re serious about becoming a legitimate contender.
by messwiththebull on Dec 27, 2009 8:59 AM CST up reply actions
can we get 2?
I’m not that familiar with the contract figures, but can som1 comment on any potential of singning 2 guys. Obviously our big contracts to get rid of are kirk and Luol, but is it at all possible to do something like wade/JJ and boozer, o rmaybe JJ and bosh. PPl want to win championships and play for legit contenders. The celts big 3 made some sacrifices to make their situation work out. Plus som1 like Wade has to kno about the massive endorsement potential for him Chicago, maybe hed be willing to take a slightly smaller contract if we got 2 big name players…?
no.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
they might not even have room for 1 max free agent
let alone two.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
Basically, they could if they traded away Salmons, Deng and Hinrich for expirings.
That’s not going to happen. The cap will be between $50$-55 million. You’ll need $30-$34 million in space to get two guys. That means a total payroll of $16 million to ensure you can get two, or $25 million and hope. Add about $3 million for cap holds to whichever guys you want to keep for 2010-2011.
They could trade everyone who is not an expiring deal (or one that can be renounced) which includes Salmons, Hinrich and Deng and get expiring contracts. Roll with Rose, Noah, James Johnson, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, and a bunch of scrubs. That sounds okay in theory (snag the two big FA’s, grab a PG, SG and SF on exceptions and in the draft).
Something like:
Rose, ?
Wade, Xavier Henry
Maurice Evans???, James Johnson
Bosh, Gibson
Noah, Asik
It could work. Problem is… if you miss on those two, you’ve got the worst team in the league. Is it worth the gamble? To me, at this point, it is. If you fail, you fail. Be good in a 4or 5 years.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Deng has built up legit value
as of late. Im sure we could find some team to take him off our hands. I def like MPG’s proposal of dishing hinrich to portland for bayless and maybe outlaw (esp if we got rid of deng/salmons). However, I think the biggest concern with dispersing our contracts is giving up on this season, not making the playoffs and not drawing enough attention to ourselves for the big guys to notice. That being said…im still down to gamble.
if u put joe johnson
instead of wade…ure still not that much worse off….
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
hmmm
rose
joe johnson
salmons?
bosh
noah
Assuming we somehow dish deng and kirk, and JJ and bosh both agree to take a lil less. Its ok to dream big…
Well joe johnson is an alright ball handler
and even if his motives so to speak are selfish, he is a guy who is willing to pass. Ultimately he can do exactly what kirk hinrich does plus more, replacing him effectively. Ditto for bosh, who can do exactly what deng can do plus more…the only problem would be every time salmons touches the ball….but perhaps he wont take as many 3 pt shots and take his shots closer to teh basket
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
yeah you are.
You’re about 5-7 wins fewer per year. that’s the difference between 55-65 wins and 50-60. The difference between being the best and “among the best”. The difference between being the Lakers…. and the Mavericks or Suns. You’re still really good, and I’ll take it as a consolation prize, but it’s a definite drop off.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Why not do some of both?
If we can get a max guy this off-season, and we should be able to, the Bulls should jump on it. The way things are going we still have a lottery pick so we get a talented young player to play alongside Derrick/Noah/MaxGuy/Luol. That’s a very good starting lineup. The bench may be thin, but hopefully management can sign a decent bench guy to play alongside Taj and JJ, who at the very least should be useable bench guys.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
that's how I feel
that’s a good team, and there’s still time to make it a great team.
As opposed to this team (or this team next year adding nothing) which stinks.
Though we still have VDN looming.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
Well then perhaps
we shouldnt only be discussing free agents to pick up this summer but also coaches…thoughts?
You don't need a star coach,
though having one is definitely a bonus. Look at some of the best teams in the league: Boston(Rivers), Cleveland(Brown), Orlando(Van Gundy), Atlanta(Woodson), Dallas(Carlisle) and Phoenix(Gentry) all have decent but not great coaches. A guy like ABC’s Van Gundy or Byron Scott would suffice. Obviously, we’d love to have a Phil Jackson or Rick Adelman, but all you need is a decent coach in this league to be a title contender.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Exactly.
If we get a max guy, a new coach and hit it big in the draft, we’ve got a damn good team here.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
My best-case scenario* is....
… Evan Turner and Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson and Cole Aldrich, in that order. Two or three years, they’ll be alright.
*Actually, I’d prefer Thomas to go through the roof, they pay him to stay AND draft Turner. Then their PF is 24 instead of 26, but Thomas is clearly the inferior player and the age isn’t that big of a deal. It’s more of a bias and hope that Thomas steps up.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I'll take Bosh,
but I feel like he’s not as good his numbers say he is. He seems kind of soft and I think I’d rather have Amare, though Bosh is younger and doesn’t have a history of injuries. Is Bosh that good? I mean, the Raptors have only had one winning season since he’s been there.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
it takes a village
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
To even be ok?
His teams have, for the most part, sucked. If you’re a max contract guy you should at least be able to squeak out, at worst, consistent 8 seeds, especially in the Eastern Conference. Plus, it’s not like he’s been playing alongside total scrubs.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Even the absolute best players are only worth 14-17 wins.
You surround them with guys worth 2 or 3 wins or even less, you’re not going to be very good.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Since Tyrus thomas WON'T explode this year...
…my ideal is
6’3" Rose 22 years old
6’7" Turner* 22 y.o.
6’9" Deng 25 y.o.
7’0" Bosh 26 y.o. – 6’10" Gibson 25 y.o.
7’0" Noah 25 yo – 6’11" Asik 24 yo
That’s why A) dealing Hinrich for expirings is an imperative and B) why (in my opinion) missing on this past draft was such a big deal. Gibson might end up being okay, but I’d still rather have 2 of 3 of Lawson, Budinger and Blair. Hell, they could have had all 3 just by trading future 2nd picks for one at the top of the draft this past year. I’ll even take Gibson over Blair as an org guy, just cuz… You give me that team above plus Lawson or Budinger (instead of the void they’ll have now) and a good coach, and I’d be excited about that team.
That’s why I’m so frustrated about this team. A 2010 plan could have been wonderful for them. It could still be good. They should have drafted better. They should deal Hinrich very soon. They should have a very specific draft in mind. They should fire Del Negro and get a good coach or at least start the search soon. They didn’t. They won’t. They probably won’t. They definitely won’t. BLEURGH!
*If they don’t get Turner, I’d still go for SG, the better of Henry or Warren.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Which team is gonna take Kirk for an expiring?
2.5 more seasons of ~9 million per is a lot to swallow for, as of right now, a bad player.
What teams need a guy like Kirk? Presumably, a really good contending team who’s needs a solid hybrid guard on the bench. Who fits that bill?
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Hinrick is going nowhere until 2011....it's a pipe dream
No one is paying 9mil/yr for a 29 yr old backup shooting guard with 2.5 years on his contract, avg 8pts/gm on the back side of his career. That ship sailed the summer of 08. Hinrick is now and will be (by far) the highest paid backup guard in the league.
Why do we all of a sudden think
that we could even get JJ. Personally I like him alot too, esp after watching how he played agains us, but if anything I think he would be tougher to sign than Wade. Wade is from chicago and is on an absolutely pitiful team. JJ is on a sick and upcoming team, and while they might not be a true contender, its contraversial at best to say he would upgrade team wise coming to chicago.
The heat are actually not that bad
They’re 13-12 with wins over Denver, Orlando(twice) and Portland. But yes you’re point is valid, I think we’ll have a hard time signing either them.
Thats what a D-Wade does,
he can take a bad team and make them mediocore or good, thats what superstar talent can do.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Dec 22, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
The Joe Johnson idea is shit
What we’re really getting at here is some sort of means of encouraging the Bulls to actually “cross the threshold” and spend more to get a winner.
The theory is what? That Johnson is “something”, and maybe JJ+Rose is enough to go on a little spree next year and somehow it heals the blackened prune pit that is Jerry Reinsdorf’s heart, inducing him to open up the checkbook.
But as you point out, yfbb, we basically did the same thing with Wallace. We pre-emptively started dumping salary and certainly never added more talent later.
So yeah. Not gonna happen.
We can also take a look at the composition of the team and its salaries, and see what we’ll be locked into.
Next year, if we land Johnson at the max, we’re talking:
Rose, Hinrich
Johnson,
Deng, JJ
Gibson
Noah
We’ll be laughably shallow in the sense of teams like the Celtics, but I don’t think our team has the cache to add useful players for next to nothing like Cassell and PJ Brown went to the Celts. So that means we add Joe Johnson at the max and probably don’t get to 50 wins.
Then, the year after, Noah’s extension (he’ll be getting one, right?) will be kicking in as well, so add another $10M or so to the $45M we have wrapped up in JJ, Deng, Hinrich, Rose, and we’re at $55M for those 5 guys. Rose will be negotiating an extension for the following year, at which point he’ll sop up all of the “savings” of Kirk’s contract expiring. So maybe we sign up a guy for the MLE then, but it’ll be a one year rumble, and I don’t see it getting anywhere. After that, barring trades, we’re at $65M+ for those four guys + one MLE level player (who is, potentially, re-signed Kirk).
All this is to say that the “window of opportunity” presented by signing Joe Johnson for really getting somewhere and then inducing Reinsdorf to pony up for more of that loving feeling is actually quite small. It’ll be JJ’s first season here, and then maybe his second. But we can expect them to be undermanned their first season for the technical reason of not having any other means of adding players, and then the second season, they’ll already be on the cusp of a cap crisis.
In short, it’ll be over before it starts and won’t lock us into any sort of stability and long-run growth.
hmm, Atlanta could be open to a sign/trade
so maybe the ability to add for ‘10 wouldn’t be so hamstrung.
I guess I see them being ‘locked in’ with Johnson, or ‘locked in’ to without Johnson, so I take the former.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 21, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
I think the plan has to be to evaluate soundly and understand our budget
Just as a thought experiment, is it better to spend $96M on Joe Johnson for 5 years (Age 29-33) or $96M on Rudy Gay and David Lee (Ages 24-28 and 27-31)?
If you think about it, it’s really a no brainer to go with the two younger guys.
1. Guys like this are lower risk. They’re young, seem healthy, and project to be productive throughout their contracts. In this sense, they’re sort of no-brainers in the sense that Gordon and Deng (if he had an insurable back) were. With Johnson, the likelihood is you’ve got significant drop off in the latter years of his deal, this hurts whether you’ve still got him on the team or whether you try to trade him ,because you find you can’t get crap for him.
2. You’re getting two for the price of one. And the Bulls have two obvious holes to fill. Johnson is a much riskier proposition in the since that the Bulls have to be that much better at evaluating talent to plug the other big hole (at PF). If you go with Johnson, you have to strike gold in the draft or free agency or trade to fill the PF spot. In addition to the rest of your roster. That’s a lot to ask of any team, but really a lot to ask of the Bulls.
With Lee and Gay (for example), in many ways you’ve got a much higher floor. You know you’re going to get solid production from all five positions. You’ve got more eggs in more baskets. You’ve got more possibilities to make a reasonable trade down the road and still have enough left to get somewhere. You’re less reliant on luck.
In short, the Bulls shouldn’t delude themselves and as fans we shouldn’t. We’re not a player away. We’re probably not even two players away, but two players gets us closer than one at twice the price unless that guy is just absurdly good. And Johnson is not that guy. He’s closer, in terms of the kind of player he is, to a healthy Deng or Gordon, than to Lebron or Wade or, maybe, Bosh.
I wouldn't be surprised if Rudy Gay got the max
Or at least around Deng money, making him+Lee impossible.
I don’t think it’s a bad alternative either. It’s actually what the Pistons were ridiculed for just last offseason.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 22, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
Really? Who's gonna give him the max?
Supposedly Gay wanted 5/$50M so that would put his starting salary at $8.7M for next year.
Let’s call it $9M to him or $17M to Joe Johnson.
Does Lee sign for $8M to start (that’s 5yrs and $47M IIRC). Maybe not, but it at least seems feasible to me. We could keep our eye on that Tyrus Thomas guy too.
As a general principle, I do think it’s basically a two for one deal. At the very least, it’ll be Gay for quite a bit less. If he signaled some willingness to sign for $50M last year, and he plays for the Grizzlies, I think we’ve got a shot.
Don't want David Lee,
Lee’s game is similar to Noah’s, rebound, hustle, defend, no post moves or jumper, you need a more versitle 4 next to Noah, don’t want to clog up the lane.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Dec 22, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Um... no. Lee has a legitimate jump shot that could be used off screens. Noah doesn't.
In the grand scheme of things, Lee is closer to, say, David West than to Noah.
his jumper is not that reliable.
though he’s better than Noah.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 22, 2009 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
Lee also defends people
by watching them score.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
Like I said, we could also keep our eye on that Tyrus Thomas guy too
I still think he’s the ultimate confidence guy, and the Bulls are probably going to find a way to screw that up, but still.
Johnson may not be on Lebron or Wade's level
But he’s far better than Deng and BG
Gay and Deng play the same position. If we trade Deng for nothing. We get slight improvement with Gay. If we get Lee. We lose Tyrus.
So in your scenario, its only slight improvement. Wheras with Joe its a major upgrade at a spot we need SG. Its an All-star upgrade! The effect have having an All-star player absolutely makes others better: Deng, Rose, Noah, Tyrus if he signs here.
Joe Johnson and Tyrus Thomas
or
Lee and Gay minus Deng and Thomas
I’ll take the first scenario (And guys put too much emphasis on age, 33 is not an age where we see massive drops in all-Star players (Nash, Ray Allen, MJ, Magic, Jason Kidd) Jordan was 33-35 his final years with the Bulls. I know he’s an exception. point stands.
Why bring up Wallwcw? You think they should have spent more to add to Wallace's horrendous play and contract
Do you know the Celtics have no bench?
Rose, Joe Johnson, Deng, Noah, Taj(Tyrus for 4-6 mill?) Asik, Kert can do some real damage for 3-4 years. Esp with Boston getting older. Cleveland has no bigs, both Z and Shaq are done. Leaving only Orlando and Miami of they get the Bosh/Wade combo.
Another factor you are forgetting is if Rose is top 5 guard, we can win with that team. That team easily gets to 50 wins if each player posts his average year.
I bring up Wallace because there are obvious parallels in the situation
1. Wallace did improve the team his first year. The Bulls big problem was not trying to capitalize on that (short) window of opportunity. They absolutely should have spent more. Or, alternatively, they should absolutely not have spent the money on Wallace. By making the moves they made, they put one foot in the boat and kept another on the pier.
2. “Real damage” sounds like a euphemism for “fuck all in the grand scheme of things”. The Bulls team with Wallace, I guess, also did “real damage”. It doesn’t help anything in the long run, except to fuck up our cap and end up leading to the departure of young talent while we paid off the remainder of contractual shells like Jerome James and Tim Thomas.
3. The Celtics, in fact, had quite a useful set of depth guys when they actually won the title. Posey, Brown, Cassell, Powe, and House all played important minutes for them in the playoffs.
So lets examine that difference
1- Rondo, Cassell
2- Allen, House
3- Pierce, Posey
4- Garnett, Powe
5- Perkins, Brown
That team played 10 deep in the playoffs, and has three, possibly four hall of fame players in the starting lineup. And recall it didn’t have an easy ride through the playoffs. They played two seven game series.
How do the Bulls stack up there?
1- Rose, Hinrich
2- Johnson,
3- Deng, JJ
4- Gibson
5- Noah
OK, this team is starting Taj Gibson. Now, I think it might be fair to roughly equate Joe Johnson and Rose to Pierce and Allen if Rose develops and Johnson doesn’t drop off. So that puts us on par with the Celtics if, I guess, you put Deng somewhere in the same zip code as KG. But I don’t.
And while I put Noah in the same vicinity as Perkins and Hinrich in the same vicinity as Posey, it’s pretty laughable to say Gibson is anything remotely close to the kind of player Rondo is. And we’ve got nobody after that, whereas the Celts could bring in tested guys like Cassell and Brown for short stings.
I point all this out to show just how far we are from the Celtics’ “model” of how they one. They are, in fact, a good template for how to put together a team. But this team is nowhere close, and blowing our load on Joe Johnson will still leave us nowhere close, while using up all our appreciable means of closing the gap. In short, it’s fool’s gold.
Wallace's other 'real damage'
was being the catalyst for running Skiles out of town. (thought that probably would’ve happened regardless)
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 22, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
You don't jump from no playoffs to the Finals
come on now, you know that.
You advance, and add pieces
Real damage means advancing in the playoffs and having a shot against the big boys.
Adding Joe Johnson will definately get us closer.
My assumptions are what every team does. You have to project forward, and look at best case scenarios. I have Ty Thomas still on the team, too. The debate isn’t if they can match up with the 2008 Celtic. (which for some reason you have crossed up all the player)
Rose
Johnson
Deng
Noah
is pretty close to
Rondo
Allen
Pierce
KG
Could they advance in the playoffs 2010?
That's pretty good logic, Cleveland and Boston will get old, and therefore their GMs will do absolutely nothing to rectify the situation.
Oh wait, Danny Ainge and Danny Ferry have both shown they are willing to go for broke and put their jobs on the line to satisfy their franchise players.
Assuming Rose becomes a top 5 guard and the rest of the team plays swimmingly is as ludicrous as thinking the other teams are just going to fall off a cliff because they get old.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Dec 22, 2009 1:28 AM CST up reply actions
By your logic
the Top 3 teams will always stay on top? They won’t have roster turnover? Their Hall of Famer’s won’t slow down and retire? They won’t be capped out? Their #29 pick will be an All-star
In sports there are cycles, and teams do fall off the cliff.
Fans shouldn’t project that the #1 overall pick will be a top player?
yfbb is right no chance of developing anything with this mgmt office
If they fire Vinny, then we’ll get the next Boylan or something similiar. This management team will continue to spent their wheels in trivial matters screwing around with players and having favorites without any real reasons.
If ever Paxson steps down and Reinsdorf gets serious about finding a similiar Kenny Williams type to run the Bulls as Basketball GM, then this excellent plan by MPG can be taken serious…
Otherwise just get guys in here who can score coupled with some defense type guys and continue to not have a plan… just win some games and aim to be middle tier.
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it."
"Go ahead, make my day"
"We boil at different degrees"
"A good man always knows his limitations"
"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
Totally agree
Firing VDN isn’t going to change a thing. Is Bickerstaff going to make things better?Pete Myers?. The Bulls don’t have so much a coaching problem as they have a personnel problem.
Its both,
Management let Vinny w/ a horrible bench, and Vinny can’t reall coach and proves it time after time.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Dec 23, 2009 9:59 AM CST up reply actions
What I really don't get...
….how does a team that loves rookie contracts care so little about developing talent. It’s like, if they were the Tampa Bay Rays but full of Ryan Theriots and Micah Hoffpauirs. Be cheap, fine. But at least spend $2 or $3 million on development personnel, too. It’s like the utmost disconnect I’ve ever seen.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
We'll trade you Aaron Gray for a leaky basketball.
We miss you, Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Dec 23, 2009 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
thanks for the update! PRITCHSLAPPED!!!!!
I hope he breaks his patella too.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 24, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions
somewhat take it back
I forgot that Bayless was mentioned here, I thought you were just some BEdger rubbing your talent all over our faces.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 24, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
I've been a Bayless fan for the longest time
Really happy to see him playing well/stepping up. :)
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
[I wasn't so sure it would happen.]
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
Yeah, the hope was to get him before he blew up,
but ah well.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
Psh, that was one game
I think he needs to be benched for the next three weeks now.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
agreed.
He ruins their ball movement.
;)
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
They would
if they had more than eight people who weren’t injured.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
And they're still better than us!
We’ve built the best team ever!!
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
Stop Acting Like We're Small Market
That’s a fine plan if you’re a small market team. But it’s time that the Bulls started acting like a team in a major market. We have some of the highest ticket prices in the league and the Bulls have nice TV/radio deals.
I’m just tired of taking the cheap route. Why not demand this team go over the cap for a year or two to bring in one of these stars? Boston and LA can do it, why can’t Chicago?

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