Hollinger PER projections

How did he come up with these projections?

I couldn’t find a formula or method in the article…

But Hollinger (for as smart of a guy as he is) is really an idiot a lot of the time. Is he really expecting EVERY SINGLE player on the Bulls to post a lower PER than last year except for Tyrus Thomas?

I don’t have Insider (I refuse to pay ESPN money to read their website) so I couldn’t read the complete profile on each player, but is there any particular reason he expects Derrick Rose to digress this year? Somebody fill me in because I’m thoroughly confused.

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 5, 2009 1:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Seriously, wtf is that all about?

I’d love to know some of the reasoning behind it…

"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro

by Juiceboxjerry on Oct 5, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is Hollinger's explanation

I base the projections on a tool called similarity scores.

For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons. Some players will have more comparables than others, depending on how unusual they are — guys with freak heights (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Nate Robinson), freak ages (Shaquille O’Neal) or freak stats (Andrei Kirilenko) will have relatively few, while a more generic player like Al Harrington or Devin Brown could have over a hundred.

From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Andrew Bynum’s PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age; similarly, Jason Terry is expected to tank because a number of similar players hit the wall at his age.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=3055049

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 5, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Hollinger says in How Do Projections Work:

For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons.

link

Just a guess, but I think Hollinger used Tony Parker, Stephon Marbury, and Raymond Felton as Rose’s comparables. Parker regressed from age 20 to 21 (2nd to 3rd season), Marbury regressed from age 19 to 20 (1st to 2nd season), Felton regressed from age 21 to 22 (1st to 2nd season). Their comparable years are similar to Rose’s, statwise.

by YaoPau on Oct 5, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

*edit: Marbury improved from 19 to 20

From 16.1 PER to 16.3. Small diff.

by YaoPau on Oct 5, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OR HE JUST HATES THE BULLS!!!!!!1

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I saw his projections

part of me went “Alright, so Hollinger predicted 38 wins, then went to write this article and thought ‘oh crap, how do I get this team down to 38 wins?’”

by YaoPau on Oct 5, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hah

I thought the exact same thing when I started reading the piece.

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 5, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Word

thanks guys for the explanation. I actually went back to the page right after I commented and found that explanation.

I honestly hope that’s not an accurate prediction about Rose, and I don’t think Marbury or Felton are good comparisons “game-wise” (obviously stat-wise they are) but the Parker comparison seems pretty apt.

But man, every single player on the Bulls regresses except for Tyrus? If that holds true, we’re in a lot of trouble.

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 5, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would expect Noah to beat his projection pretty easily

His projection is skewed by the fact that he showed up in terrible condition last year and it took him half the season to get in shape. He appears to be in much better shape this year, so I don’t think his numbers last year really reflect his skill level.

by Big D on Oct 5, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I would take the Rose projection with a HUGE grain of salt

Like Hollinger himself points out, very few point guards in NBA history have been as productive as Rose was last year at such a young age. There simply aren’t enough comparable players for his projection to be worth that much.

by Big D on Oct 5, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Good point

Usually point guards struggle in the first year.

"I'm in the Hall already, on the wall already, I'm a work of art I'm a Warhol already"-Jay Z

by bigballa10 on Oct 5, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Tyrus is the Bulls best player this season

than this franchise is screwed for the forseeable future.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 5, 2009 1:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

How do you figure?

Most people seem to think we need to upgrade the PF position this summer through free agency, but if Tyrus turns into an above average NBA PF, then we are set long-term at two positions…and can look to improve the other three…or can get more for him in a potential sign and trade scenario this summer for a superstar at that position.

Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?

by Dionysus2.0 on Oct 5, 2009 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tyrus Thomas is not coming back unless he has a superstar-type year.

Because the Bulls are going the “under the tax” route, they can’t sign a max free agent player unless they don’t offer Tyrus Thomas the qualifying offer. They won’t give up on the chance to get Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudamire for an “above average NBA PF” who is looking for a payday.

A) They will not offer Tyrus Thomas a QO unless he’s a 20-10 stud.
B) He will get at least an offer or two before Wade et al. sign with other teams, so the Bulls will entertain getting that player into they are all signed.
C) Tyrus Thomas will get another contract offer before then.

Therefore, there is only one remote way that Thomas is on the Bulls next year. Unless he stinks, he’ll most likely be traded at the deadline for an expiring contract and a draft pick or two.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 5, 2009 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see the Bulls dumping Tyrus at the deadline unless the season falls apart. There isn't any real upside to that,

And I can see Tyrus resigning even if he doesn’t improve much because there we’ll be clear time pressure. Expensive free agents almost always know where they are going before the 1st day they can actually sign. The cap space the Bulls have and the time deadlines will be clear, which helps get deal done. Unless Tyrus has a break out year he’s not going to be in the 1st group of free agents to sign. The Bulls will have a chance to offer him whatever they can offer him, and he’ll have a short time to decide. And I wouldn’t rule out him signing at this point. No one has any real idea of what is going to happen in the summer of 2010. Are the chances of Tyrus being on the Bulls next year high? No. Are they as simple as you just made them out to be? I don’t think so.

by Scotter on Oct 5, 2009 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess it depends on what one thinks the MAX free agents are going to do.

As I’ve been arguing, I don’t think there are that many that have switched teams. Therefore, I don’t think there is enough of a precedent, especially with 3 or 4 or 5 available in one off-season to draw a conclusion. I think they will take their sweet, sweet time. They’ll enjoy getting a ton of money. They’ll enjoy being in the sports world spotlight int he doldrums of July sports news. They’ll enjoy having significant input into how their potential future franchises will act.

Obviously, that’s all speculation. I respect your opinion that it will be over quickly. I’m just unsure as how much history we have to draw conclusions from.

(OTOH, I do say the most likely scenario that Thomas is kept around is that he is so-so, like you said. And the other “scenario” I thought of, which I had been saying would happen, but didn’t apply it in this situation: The Bulls don’t have more than $10-$12 million in cap space taking themselves out of the MAX derby. If this is the case AND Thomas as a ~17.0 PER type year (short hand for “good offensively” I guess), I could certainly see the Bulls offering him a contract.)

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 6, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your timeline is wrong.

A. They will offer Tyrus the QO. There is no detriment to offering Tyrus the QO, as they can rescind this if a free agent signing is imminent.
B. He will not get another offer because the Bulls will have the right to match. If the Bulls intend to formally extend an offer to one of the top players, the verbal negotiations will determine whether or not the Bulls need to rescind the QO before formally writing the offer. In other words, the Bulls can say to player “X”, we can offer you max are you willing to sign? If so, then they rescind the QO, renounce rights to other cap holds if necessary, etc…
C. The only contract Tyrus may get before the big stars signs is an offer of “sign and trade” from the Bulls to said player’s team.

Agree with Scotter above, there is no upside to trading Tyrus at the deadline, unless it is for Bosh, Amare, Wade, etc…

Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?

by Dionysus2.0 on Oct 5, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right about the Q.O.

He won’t accept it right away (which, for some reason, I had it in my head that it happens automatically), so they can rescind it if they think he’s going to accept and they aren’t ready for him to and/or they think a MAX player is going to sign.

I don’t believe the MAX players are going to sign so quickly and easily. They’ll want to see what the complementary moves the teams are going to make. They’ll also want to see where and how they can get the most money (sign-and-trade vs. outright signing). They’ll also want to do a preliminary exploration of the marketing/endorsement opportunities (well, I hope their agents are doing this now or will next Spring) or a second or third investigation. Finally, they’ll want to see or talk to the other players about what they’re doing.

I also don’t see the Bulls wanting to sign anyone quickly. First, I don’t see how the Bulls don’t go after AT LEAST Bosh, Wade and Stoudamire. They need to figure out what those guys want in the areas mentioned above and see how they can satisfy them.

I just can’t see how any of these guys, save staying with their own team, sign before August. I also don’t see a team that has $10 million/year and having some/any sort of need at SF/PF not offering him a contract before then. Of course, I also think the Bulls have royally fucked up and won’t have more than $10/$12 million in cap space, so maybe you’re right.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 6, 2009 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those max free agents are going to have to be off the market before teams start making other moves

They’re not going to want to spend their cap space on complementary pieces until they know if they’ve landed a max player and, if so, which one. The lesser free agents normally don’t sign until after the big ones and there’s no reason to think that’ll change next summer.

We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan

by snley on Oct 6, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not signing before August would defy every precedent of sports free agency, not just

NBA precedent. The big money guys sign 1st and quickly.

by Scotter on Oct 6, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what Tyger said, also

- I don’t like the idea of the Bulls letting there two most productive players go in back to back seasons. It doesn’t seem like the Bulls are prepared to offer Tyrus any sort of contract, especially not a contract that will reward him for being the “best” player on the team. Are the Bulls going to pay Tyrus $8 to 10 million a year to retain Tyrus’ team leading PER of 17? I don’t see it.

- The Bulls are going to run their offense through Salmons, Deng and Rose. Noah is most likely hear for another season as well. The hope is that one of those guys are the most efficient Bulls so that we don’t have another summer of arguing of whether we should retain valuable players or not.

- That doesn’t mean I’m rooting against Thomas. But in terms of rooting for players, he sadly, is low on the list. I blame the organization for that – they have set up a situation where the better some key players play (Salmons / Thomas) the more likely they will not be returning to the Bulls. This is why some of were upset about letting Gordon go (I’m over it – so this isn’t to rehash that argument). It set up a precedent where productive players in contract years are unlikely to be retained.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 5, 2009 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"This is why some of US were upset..."

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 5, 2009 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What Tyger said was wrong.

I agree, I don’t like the idea of the Bulls letting their most productive players go, and if Tyrus becomes that player, then he becomes a legit option to man the 4 spot while the Bulls look to upgrade the other positions of need (2,3,5). He has not given them a reason to offer a contract extension this summer, as his inconsistent play has determined value.

I would be happy to have another summer of arguing over which of players have proven themselves to valuable, especially if that means Tyrus has had a breakout year…what is the argument going to be Tyrus vs Salmons for our future? Seems obvious to me…

The Bulls are rebuilding, so that means by design many of the key players currently on the roster are not going to be returning to the Bulls. When a team acquires a franchise player, they have to build the roster to match his strengths…Personally, I only see one or two players beyond Rose who will be here when the team makes a deep playoff run…

Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?

by Dionysus2.0 on Oct 5, 2009 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't mean Tyrus or Salmons. as in who will the Bulls choose

I just offered those 2 guys as two players who may play so well that they become unaffordable to the Bulls. I would take Tyrus as well if forced to choose. Its not really close.

And I don’t buy the idea that the Bulls have to gut the roster to build for the future. And it doesn’t seem to be the Bulls modus operandi, because if it was, they would have traded Hinrich. I don’t think the decision to let Gordon go was based on some design for the Bulls to build the roster based on Rose’s strength. It was a purely economic move. They don’t want to pay the luxury tax to slightly improve the team.

Say the Bulls strike out on all major free agents, Tyrus is the Bulls highest PER player as Hollinger predicts, and he gets the playing time to match (ie. he doesn’t put up 17.0 PER in 20 minutes but in 35 minutes). Are the Bulls prepared to offer Tyrus 8 to 10 million to get him to sign? Or are we looking at extending the qualifying offer and than waiting the year for him to be unrestricted free agent and walk like Gordon?

I don’t have confidence that the Bulls are going to resign Tyrus in those circumstances. I think he has to have a big year (not 20-10, but a similar type impact) because the Bulls are not going to pay big money to be slightly above average. The team hasn’t shown a willingness to stockpile assets, IMO.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 5, 2009 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since the Bulls have drafted Rose...

They have traded Gooden, Hughes, Nocioni, Sefolosha, Simmons and Ruffin. That is more than 1/3 of the roster that has already been traded since Rose’s arrival. It appears to me that gutting the roster to build around Rose is the modus operandi. At some point, I feel that Hinrich will be traded, but right now his versatility offers to the Bulls more than what was offered on the trade market. I agree that letting Gordon go was an economic move, a smart one in my opinion, but not overpaying a player while rebuilding is one of the tough decisions a team has to make.

If Tyrus puts up the type of year we are discussing, then I would think the Bulls would be lucky to grab him at $8M to $10M per, and they would happily match that offer (ala the Hawks when Memphis offered the contract Josh Smith). The problem will arise if Tyrus feels his value is greater than what the market indicates, and he turns down multiple offers in that range (ala BG turning down $10M per to accept $11M per later). Of course, that is all predicated on the Bulls striking out in free agency, which no one wants. I still think the best case scenario is Tyrus having a good year, then being offered a sign and trade (and a big raise) to trade for that big star we are threatening to sign outright.

When have the Bulls not shown a willingness to stockpile assets? That is all this team has stockpiled over the past four seasons. What they have have shown me is an inability to leverage those assets into a legit star (see rumored trades for Garnett, Gasol, Kobe, etc).

Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?

by Dionysus2.0 on Oct 5, 2009 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you really claiming that the trades of

Gooden, Hughes, Nocioni, Sefo, Simmons and Ruffin amount to gutting the roster? I think that is more getting rid of guys who suck. The only player on that list who played meaningful minutes for the Bulls was Nocioni and his best years are behind him.

Regarding Tyrus – this isn’t a market. This is a bidding war. Thus, the “market” is set by if anyone is willing to pay Tyrus $10 million and 1. It doesn’t have to be a fair offer – it just has to be a offer higher than the Bulls. I’m not as confident as you that the Bulls would match an offer in the $8 to $10 million range and I doubt Tyrus would get such an offer as RFA. What I find most likely (if the Bulls strike out in 2010) is that the Bulls sign Tyrus for the qualifying offer.

In my opinion, stockpiling assets means more to me than having a bunch of first and second round picks. If that is the case, every losing team in the NBA is stock piling assets. Stock piling assets in my view means being willing to pay those assets even when the affect on the court may have a minimum beneficial affect on the team in the short run. I would say letting Gordon, Chandler, PJ Brown’s contract, JR Smith, Duhon, Sefolosha (we may have gotten a steal, but we still traded a quality back-up for the #26 pick in a poor draft) and Tim Thomas all go for basically nothing demonstrates an unwillingness to stockpile assets. Now, I don’t think the Bulls are conducting a fire sale or anything, but I don’t see a commitment to keeping talented guys around unless they fit a mold and/or an economic plan.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 6, 2009 12:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The team traded over 1/3 of the roster.

Let a free agent sign elsewhere and bought out another player…to me, if your team moves that many players in one season, they are turning the roster over. Additionally, Thabo was the first first round pick of the Paxson era to be traded after spending time with the team and Andres Nocioni was part of the original core, to such point he was signed to a long term deal.

I don’t understand why you think Tyrus would elicit a bidding war with a 17 PER?

I don’t understand your definition of stockpiling assets? It sounds like you are describing the New York Knicks under Isiah…

Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?

by Dionysus2.0 on Oct 6, 2009 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, you really think those were basketball decisions...

…in that they didn’t fit with Rose? Brad Miller and John Salmons are better than any of those other players, regardless of the player playing PG. Acquiring those players had NOTHING to do with gutting the roster for Rose. It had to do with making the team immediately better.

Thabo was an economic move, pure and simple. Thabo didn’t shoot 3’s well, but he did defend well. He would have been a good complement off the bench to Rose.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 6, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is irrelevant.

My belief is the team is rebuilding around Rose, and as such, only one or two players currently on this roster will be here with him when we make a deep playoff run. The decisions are made in congruence with one another, the financial decisions impact the basketball decisions and vice versa.

To your point, getting rid of Gooden and Hughes we certainly basketball decisions, as they were bad players, Getting rid of Noc and Thomas were more of a financial decision. Getting rid of Thabo and BG was a combination of both. The other players don’t matter / were filler for trades.

Why isn't your friendly Bulls Blogger friendly?

by Dionysus2.0 on Oct 6, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point about the "bidding war" is that this isn't akin to a regular

market interaction where every team that bids for Tyrus is going to only bid his “fair market value.” One team that really wants Tyrus can come in and set the price to a place where the Bulls won’t match. So it doesn’t matter if Tyrus is only worth $7 million a season. All it takes is one gm/owner to think he is worth $10 million and he’s gone.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 6, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and I'll just say regarding 2010 (and Tyger)

if the Bulls strike out in the 2010 free agency plan than it will be a major disappointment. So in my mind, the timeline is a bit inconsequential. If the Bulls don’t pull in Wade, Bosh, Stoudamire or another NBA superstar (I prefer Wade) than the summer is a loss. And if they do pull in one of those guys, I’m fearful that they won’t be willing to pay the luxury tax to keep Tyrus or Salmons. That is the crux of the issue. If we add Wade but lose Miller, Thomas and Salmons how big of a step forward have we taken? I would still do it, but it seems a bit less enticing in my mind.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 5, 2009 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The luxury tax isn't likely to be any kind of factor in the summer of 2010 with Salmons and Tyrus.

The team is too far under the cap for that to be an issue. The luxury tax wouldn’t be an issue until subsequent seasons.

by Scotter on Oct 6, 2009 2:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i meant if they got a superstar like Wade

would they be willing to go into the luxury tax to surround him with high priced vets. I mentioned Tyrus and Salmons just because they both could be free agents at the end of the season.

Can a team sign a free agent than go over the luxury tax to retain its own free agents? Would Thomas keep his bird rights with the Bulls if they had to renounce him to sign a big time free agent?

If my thinking on this is correct, and it may not be, the Bulls could sign Wade and than go into the luxury tax to resign Miller, Salmons or Tyrus because they are the teams own free agents.

If the Bulls fail to sign a big 2010 free agent, than its moot, and the Bulls won’t have to worry about approaching the luxury tax.

by Basketball Smurf on Oct 6, 2009 3:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, they can't, as far as I know.

The team must renounce the rights of the players to clear cap holds and get the cap space. When they do that, they lose all Bird Rights. I wouldn’t be near as frustrated w/ 2010, if they could do what you advocated.

DraftExpress.com Salaries

Cap holds are salary allocations for free agents with bird rights. You can renounce a free agent to remove their cap hold but can no longer sign them with an exception.

Here

A team can’t act like they’re under the cap and sign free agents using cap room, and then use their Disabled Player, Bi-Annual, Mid-Level and/or Traded Player exceptions.

I used to think, “Hey, renounce Miller and Thomas et al. to take off their cap holds, sign a MAX free agent, then sign Miller back using the MLE.” yfBB straightened me out, and I’ve since found the “evidence”.

This is part of why I’m so frustrated w/ the Gordon and Hinrich situations. I think it restricts the maximum potential quality of the team for the next 3 or 4 years and vastly reduces the minimum level of quality post-2010. Who knows? It’s still fun to argue about.

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 6, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if they get Wade

I don’t care if they run out a skeleton roster in 2010, they don’t have to win a title the very next year.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 6, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, so

Brandon Wright, Kevin Love, Greg Oden, Mareese Speights, Nate Robinson, Ramon Sessions, Javale Mcgee, JR Smith, Anthony Randolph, Thaddeus Young, Charlie Villanueva, Leandro Barbosa, Lou Williams, Carl Landry, Leon Powe (the guy with no fucking knees), Craig Smith, Chris Anderson, Will Bynum are gonna be better (SORRY, more efficient, which in his world means better) than Derrick rose? And that was just to name a few of the standouts. I’m sorry, but that is just stupid.

"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro

by Juiceboxjerry on Oct 5, 2009 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

well, glad someone got the 'PER RANKING LOLZ' comment out of the way

you can pick up your prize at the door.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet! I'll take the big purple monkey wearing sunglasses.

No, but in all seriousness, I don’t really have a huge problem with Hollinger or his stat (even though it appears to favor big men a bit much) nor do I think he hates the Bulls. PER is fine for doing what it’s suppose to, which is measure a player’s efficiency. But the thing is, he really does base almost all of his opinion of a player on this stat. So by those players above being ahead of Rose, he’s essentially saying they’re better and will be during the season. I just think it’s a little silly is all.

"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro

by Juiceboxjerry on Oct 5, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he did take it a bit far with the Brook Lopez MVP campaign

but Rose was not a well-rounded player last year, either.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

*Brook Lopez ROY campaign

MVP would be taking it more than a bit too far :)

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

My intention wasn’t to be a total Rose homer. He has plenty of room for improvement, but MANY guys on that list are not even close to being “well rounded” players themselves.

"That's a spicy meatball-a!" - Vinny Del Negro

by Juiceboxjerry on Oct 5, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shorter Hollinger critique

Humans still vote: Grabowskism 821.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 5, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hollinger gets a little too caught up in his own stats sometimes

in my opinion. I think PER is an excellent stat, but sometimes I wonder if he actually watches the games of if he just looks at box scores all day.

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 5, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you actually read the analysis?

ugh, it’s 2009. Picking on Hollinger is so ’05.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

I just see that he posted something and I go directly to BaB to rip on him. What year is it?

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 5, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

In his defense,

He generally has a formula, and goes with what it spits out. But I have seen several instances where he indicated that he didn’t necessarily agree with the number from his formula, and he has at least acknowledged that PER has weaknesses. I think he does watch quite a bit of basketball – but I also think he probably has a bit of a tendency to try and interpret what he sees in line with PER.

In honor of the dearly departed, I declare July PB&J month - everyone raise a sandwich to the memory of Ben!

by wjb1492 on Oct 5, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Almost every projection I've seen has the Bulls in the same 37-38 win ballpark

PER, win shares, APM, whatever you are looking at has this team as below average and missing the playoffs. But, it’s not like they are saying these methods are without error or predict everything with 100% certainty.

Hollinger can be a clown at times, but I’m not reading these articles for his personality.

The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.

by Ozzie Montana on Oct 5, 2009 2:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Can you get Hollinger anywhere else other than ESPN.com now?

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 5, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't know you ever could get him anywhere else

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 5, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought he may publish a basketball prospectus each year

I guess he used to, but it all looks like it is on ESPN now.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 5, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's been sucked into the corporate machine.

He quit doing the paper one a few seasons back. Isn’t it just great how we can now get his stuff instantly – provided we’re willing to pony up for Insider, at least, and don’t mind waiting till ESPN decides it’s time to release stuff.

In honor of the dearly departed, I declare July PB&J month - everyone raise a sandwich to the memory of Ben!

by wjb1492 on Oct 5, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still miss the book version

much easier to plow through multiple teams.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I do, too.

That was suppose to be sarcastic, but I don’t think it came through at all. In one of Hollinger’s chats (last year I think?) someone asked him about the paper version, and his big rationale for how great the online stuff is was that he can update things much closer to the season than if he had to meet publication deadlines. I can see that point, but I’d still rather have the option of a paper one available, and with Insider it was cheaper too if you just wanted that. Plus, you could actually compare what he said from year to year, and now it’s just whatever is most current.

In honor of the dearly departed, I declare July PB&J month - everyone raise a sandwich to the memory of Ben!

by wjb1492 on Oct 5, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not being able to go back to previous years is the biggest issue for me.

by Scotter on Oct 5, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This way,

Hollinger is NEVER WRONG.
If he is wrong … database wizardry …
NEVER WRONG.

I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]

by Prevenge on Oct 6, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't he right THE Basketball Prospectus?

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 5, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go troll your bridge

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 5, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

huh?

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 5, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he rote it

now Pelton and clan will.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. --Bruce Bartlett

by tyger1147 on Oct 5, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone really think that Rose will be worse this year than last?

by MrBungle on Oct 5, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wayne Winston

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 5, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He didn't improve during the season

I doubt he regresses, but he could be the same as last year.

by YaoPau on Oct 5, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that'd be bad :-/

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As much potential Rose has, statistcally, he was only average or slightly above average last year.

This is coming from a huge Rose fan. I expect him to be much better this year. But then again what do I know?

by MrBungle on Oct 5, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you buy an +2 PER increase for TT as projected by Hollinger?

I am not a big fan of PER to begin with.

by MrBungle on Oct 5, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a +1 projected increase, from 15.9 to 17.0

14.2 points, 8.4 boards, 1.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.5 blocks, 2.1 tov, .525 TS% <- Tyrus, 2009 per 36min
14.9 points, 8.3 boards, 1.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.5 blocks, 1.9 tov, .546 TS% <- Tyrus, last 65 games per 36min

I’m not calculating PER, but it looks like he was 17.0+ since December.

by YaoPau on Oct 5, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Morrison is projected to be the worst player in the NBA this year . . .

With a projected PER of 5.96. Great job MJ!

by Big D on Oct 5, 2009 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

watch out.

MJ is the ultimate competitor, and if he reads your slight he’ll never forget it, dedicating his life to proving you wrong. As long as you can reach him at the golf course to let him know…

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Oct 5, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

nice

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 6, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now MJ's gonna kick your ass.

In Curling.

I support the Tornado Release [See: Joakim Noah]

by Prevenge on Oct 6, 2009 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wanna throw this out there...

out of Hollinger’s top 30 players for projected PER, only 5 of them are projected to post higher PERs than last year. And of those 5, the biggest increase is by 2.79 points. Does that seem a little weird to anyone else?

Why do his projections have just about EVERYONE in the NBA regressing this season? He has almost every Bulls player posting a lower PER this year than last, and 30 of his top 40 players will apparently regress.

The ones he predicts to impove:

Kevin Durant (2.65)
Andrew Bynum (2.79)
Chris Bosh (0.62)
Brandan Wright (1.08)
Kevin Love (1.25)
Carmello Anthony (0.28)
Rajon Rondo (0.31)
Greg Oden (0.97)
Brook Lopez (0.88)
Maureese Speights (0.7)

Notable (i.e. young, probably shouldn’t regress) players that he expects to post lower PER numbers:

Chris Paul
LeBron James
Dwight Howard
Brandon Roy
Pau Gasol
Danny Granger
Deron Williams
Devin Harris
Amar’e Stoudamire

If Hollinger is right (and I sincerely doubt he is); should we expect the overall level of play in the league to drop significantly this year?

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 6, 2009 1:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Oops

that top part should read:

out of Hollinger’s top 40 players for projected PER

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 6, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn

and it should be 10, not 5

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 6, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That group of young players expected to post lower PERs consists mostly of guys coming of career best years

I would think the most likely scenario for each of them, considering they’ve all been in the NBA at least 3 years already, is to not improve on that career year in the season following but instead see regression to the mean. There’s probably a good chance that most, if not all, will improve upon or maintain last season’s level of performance. The projected PER, though, is only a display of the most likely result.

The exceptions to those coming off career years are Pau and Amar’e. Pau’s 29, so regression would be expected at this point in his career. This is just a guess here, but I think for Amar’e, he’s had such dramatic shifts in performance and playing time through his career that it’s difficult to find enough similar players to him to give a strong projection.

We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan

by snley on Oct 6, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very valid point on the specific players mentioned

but I’m still a little concerned that he expects 75% of his “top 40” to regress this year. You’d think it would balance out. Obviously, these are just projections, but it’s still interesting.

"This is not Vietnam, Smokey, there are rules here." - Walter Sobchak

by Rose Colored Goggles on Oct 7, 2009 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have insider

but wouldn’t Hollinger explain this?

The first thing I looked for when I saw these projections were “what were his projections last year versus the actual”?

Not really interested in paying the Insider direct cost I’m looking for an ESPN the mag subscription on the cheap for the backdoor access. I’d rather have a book with a UPC that gives me access to Hollinger data. I don’t really care about any of the other sports ESPN.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Oct 6, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs