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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

Minutes are up, fouls are down. Go figure. Shooting and rebounding are still down, so there might hope for even more improvement. I'm glad they didn't end the Tyrus Thomas Era a month or so ago. Now go have five straight bad games to prove my optimism wrong.

about 3 years ago Tyrus_thomas_dunking_tiny tyger1147 95 comments 0 recs  | 

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…the highly-coveted lineup (by me and a few others, anyway) of Rose, Gordon, Deng, Thomas and Noah is finally approaching mediocrity. Yeah, it’s still bad. And yeah, they’ve been playing bad teams. However, this lineup is young, dynamic and definitely has the most potential of any five-man group on the team. Maybe it never ends up being good, but I think the organization owes it to itself to find out for sure. And, hell, even if Gordon goes this summer (he will), replacing him with Hinrich next year (and finding some sort of replacement for the future) is better than having to replace him and Gooden.

Of course, this lineup proving to be better than average with a starting lineup age of 22 1/2 years old would be great (and I do allow it’s possible that it doesn’t). Then, keeping that going for the… owe, next five or six years by re-signing Gordon (with an average starting lineup age of 27/28) and possibly adding a “big piece” would be best.

I think all that is possibly, even if unlikely. I just want that scenario to be given a fair chance.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 31, 2009 12:08 PM CST reply actions  

Per has been steadily climbing while Tyrus continues to show

his Jekyl and Hyde personality. I believe the only way to hinder his progress is for Vinny to jack around with his minutes again once wight Gooen returns. I think there is hope for the future if TT and Noah continue to play hard and the coaches let them work through their mistakes.

Experience is the Best Teacher is not just a cliche. It’s a fact. If you doubt it would you be willing to be the first patient of a newly graduated brain surgeon? Both these young studs seem to thrive on positive motivation and are not mature enough to perform at a high level if they’re constantly looking over their shoulder worrying about being pulled for making some boneheaded play.

I think tyger1147 is being overly pessimistic in saying they may fail. I predict both will eventually make Paxson look like one smart GM if given the chance, although it may kill our chances to make the playoffs this year……and so what….it’s gonna be 3 and out anyway against the Celts for the 8th seed.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Jan 31, 2009 12:14 PM CST reply actions  

tyger's pessimism = sarcasm/cynicism

Is that different?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 31, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Ha, I was about to comment on the game thread that Thomas has a PER of 15

His shooting somehow, someway has turned slightly average. He actively realizes when he can just take the ball to the hoop and no one will stop him. The Harlem Globetrotter shit needs to stop, and why he doesn’t get more rebounds is really frustrating. The most annoying thing about his game right now is defense. His weak-side help is solid, but a guy with his size and speed should do a better job of containing the opposing PF.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Jan 31, 2009 12:14 PM CST reply actions  

re: Ozzie comment "a guy with his size and speed should do a better job containing the opposing PF".

Both Tyrus and Noah get pushed around a lot by stronger opponents in some situtations because they are physically overmatched. I believe they both should make a firm comittment to work with a strength and conditioning coach in the offseason to add bulk and muscle mass so they will be able to hold their postions better on the blocks next season. They already have an advantage with quickness and in Tyrus’s case, incredible leaping ability.

It also appears the Bulls need to bring in someone who can teach them defensive positioning and rotating. The current staff seems to be lacking in teaching team defense, especially in the areas of defending cutters, fighting off screens, help and recover, switching and rotating and not giving up postion so easily in the paint (which is where strength training can help). I’m sure our current staff drills them but when dealing with raw players, it may take a special personality to get through to them (like a Scott Skiles?) and it seems the current roster is too raw or too unmotivated to buy in. Having a teacher who has earned their respect his past successes may be the catalyst to jump start our young bulls. Johnny Bach comes to mind. I beleive he still lives in the Chicago area. Or even, God forbid, Dennis Rodman.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Jan 31, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

wow

oops. He has a nice jumper thats what I’m trying to say…a bit hung over. I think Tyrus is a 3.

by ImmanuelKant on Jan 31, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions  

So does Thomas.

If they were really patient, they could have tried that. If they didn’t have Deng, they could try that. As it is, I think he can easily play the 4 in a fast-paced team in the manner of Antawn Jamison or Shawn Marion or Al Harrington (not the same game, but in the same way they take advantage of their quickness, athleticism and multiple basketball skills. As a dribbler, shooter and passer at the SF, he’s nothing special. At the PF, he’s above-average and will only get further from the crowd. His size will be under average, but the hope would be that he could improve everything else to make up for the that negative.

In my opinion, anyway.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 31, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions  

And if the Bulls didn't rely on Nocioni to be the backup PF

And actually had a physical big who could rebound off the bench, the lack of size could be covered when he has bad games.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Jan 31, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Only at BAB

can posts be written glorifying a guy averaging 9pts and 5.5 rebounds. His PER is career high!!! You forgot to mention the following lowlights:

-Career low pts/40 at 14.4
-Career low reb/40 at 9.2
-Career low ast/40 at 1.5
-FG% of 42.8, just .5 above his career low.

Congrats Tyrus, you’re a STAR!! Wait, keep posting how magnificent he’s been. I can wait to read more about it. I haven’t heard the argument he doesn’t get enough minutes in a while.

While you’re at it, study the advanced section of your own link. The section where you pulled PER from. Compare Tyrus in every category to his rookie year. Here are the areas he improved:

O-Rating
Offensive Win shares
Turnover %

Here are the areas he has regressed in:
True Shooting%
Effective FG%
Offensive Rebound %
Defensive Rebound %
Total Rebound %
Assist %
Steal %
Block %
Usage %
D Rating
Defensive Win Shares
Total Win Shares

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 2:51 PM CST reply actions  

Thanks. I wanted to make sure you still had your head up your ass.

More predictable? CJ Bulls or Old Faithful? Hmm…

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 31, 2009 3:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Honestly

instead of pretending like I didn’t lay out a bunch of facts why I disagree, would it kill you to absorb the info and reply with a thought out response. I mean why is he down in so many areas yet you believe he’s a success?

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Because you simply don't care. It's funner to insult you.

But here’s a single for-instance:

Your words:

You forgot to mention the following lowlights
-Career low pts/40 at 14.4
-Career low reb/40 at 9.2
-Career low ast/40 at 1.5
-FG% of 42.8, just .5 above his career low.

My words:

Shooting and rebounding are still down

There’s actually more, and I’d gladly have a real discussion on the matter if I thought you were capable of it. I don’t think you are, so I have no interest in trying to discuss anything concerning Thomas with you.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 31, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Bad argument IMO

  I am really pleased with Tyrus’s play. Largely because you’re pulling stats from his rookie year where he played 13 mpg against a lot of garbage and his terrible 2nd year (17mpg). This year his minutes are up to 24mpg, he’s playing against better competition, and his stats are improved or about the same (which while isn’t amazing, suggests that he is improving). Watching him, his play is certainly better than last year.
  What’s most exciting is his 2.8 bpg (per 40min pace adjusted) is the highest in the league for power forwards averaging 20 minutes.

by Jamaicanpi on Jan 31, 2009 4:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Where should I pull stats from?

Here are tyrus improvements for last yr vs. this yr

ts%
efg%
stl%
blk%

here are areas he regressed from last year

orb%
drb%
trb%
ast%
to%
usg%
ows
dws
ws

Does that make you happier. The only oersin handpicking stats is you. What kind of assumption is his rookie year he player against garbage and got limited minutes so he will have better stats? Or taking blocks per minute among starters over 20 minutes at pf. What’s next, are you going to tell me how tyrus leads the league in tipped passes on tuesdays when Cincinnati receives more than 2" of snow.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 6:12 PM CST up reply actions  

instead of inflating your list so it looks more impressive

why not combine the stats, with evidence from the games and rational thought to produce your argument. Go off on someone above about understanding their stats(above re: PER) and then include Win Shares, which are based on a cumulative statistic is absurd. usg% doesnt particularly say anything about his ability or quality of play, just glanced @ BG, Kirk, Noah, Lu and Noc and their usg is all down too vs last year.

So basically he is Shooting the ball better, stealing and blocking better, while rebounding worse and has a lower ast/to %. So ya, the rebounding and dumb decisions are definitely still a concern, he has a ton of areas to improve on if he wants to be a real solid player. But congratulations on venomously stating as little useful information as the original post using statistics.

by reprisal on Jan 31, 2009 7:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Umm I pulled those stats, because

most are used in formulating PER, and because the POST used that link to brag about his gains. So I felt justified in using his numbers to show they weren’t so great. I didn’t want to have to write a FAQ post about all these stats. That wasn’t my job. I believe the poster understood them.

USG% is more important than you give credit for. It’s what allows other players to be successful. For example, Mo Williams gets open looks because LeBron’s high usage causes teams to focus their defense on him. When a player shoots more, they become less efficient. So if Tyrus shoots 50% with a usage rate of 17%, he will shoot a lower percent if he raises that rate. So as he uses less posessions, his value to the offense diminshes. As much as people like to bury Gordon. He is a player who can maintain a good efficiency even with a lot of shots. It takes pressure of the other offensive players.

I think the stats were damning. You choose to look at them in a way that sound positive. He’s worse than last year, and even worse than the year before. The only thing carrying him right now is he’s getting to the line more and shooting free throws way better than ever before.

As far as career growth arcs go, either Tyrus is on one of the slowest around, or he just isn’t good enough. I’m betting on the latter.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions  

he might be behind the curve because he started playing basketball very late in life

especially for someone playing in the NBA. Add to that that big men generally take longer to develop than any other players in the game and that Tyrus has only been playing PF for 3 and a half years of his life (1 year at LSU and 2.5 years in the NBA so far) and it’s pretty apparent that he SHOULD be this far behind the normal career arc of a big man in the league, which is generally pretty slow to begin with. It also hasn’t helped that he hasn’t been allowed to develop and has instead been jerked around and sat for players with lesser athletic ability and upside. He was essentially our second overall pick, he should have been getting entitlement minutes from the get-go. It didn’t happen and it’s put him behind.

by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2009 7:58 PM CST up reply actions  

I think there is this perception that because you pick up bball late,

that means you grow at a different rate. While there is some truth there, it points out why that rarely happens. Most of the learning and fundamental growth are better to happen a young age. He missed out on a lot of that experience. Now he’s trying to catch up on a level not built for that. It just isn’t likely to happen.

And stop with the jerked around garbage. He wasn’t earning minutes, so he was benched. He’s grown up a lot this year, but is still very far away.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Well you ignored plenty of important things

like Win Shares NOT being used to formulate PER and isnt actually a stat that he regressed in(or at least you provide no evidence thats the case).

I never said USG wasnt important. However the 1% drop in it does it signify much, except that he hasnt broken out into an all star offensive player or anything. Its seen in all the Bulls players I looked at. Maybe its Derrick Rose, maybe its VDN, maybe its them playing worse. Furthermore increased USG is most likely correlated with a drop off(as you point out), but it doesnt implicitly cause it.

If you had picked all PER statistics, your argument would seemingly be that by breaking down PER and talling up which areas improved and which regressed you could come up with a better assessment of a player. Even though you dont consider the degree or impact of those categories. That seems like quite a stretch regardless of your opinions on PER.

You think the stats are damning, but provide no evidence of it. I didnt really put much spin on them either way. In fact I agree with you jumping off point, that his 15PER isnt terribly impressive. However his play since early December has been better than that, so we will see. I’m cautiously hopeful, you are wildly pessimistic and you really really want everyone else to be too.

by reprisal on Jan 31, 2009 9:53 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

What more needs to be said, he regressed in virtually every category

Where do you want me to take that? “He isn’t scoring as much, he’s not a good scorer.” I think I’ve done enough explaining throughout this thread why I’d move Tyrus before he runs out of upside.

I think PER is a starting point. Looking closer at the numbers can tell you a lot more about a players development. I’d rather his PER stay the same or go down if it meant he wasn’t shooting free throws as well but raising his scoring and rebounding. Unfortunately just the opposite is happening. BTW that’s the biggest problem with PER, who decides the importance and weight of each category. I take more value away from the individual areas than the big number at the end.

You remain optomistic, I remain hopeful his “improved” play can lead to the Bulls acquiring a viable big man.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions  

he hasn't regressed in any of the winshares, he's exactly on pace for the same amount of winshares

winshares are tied to the number of games played. If you break them down by WinShares per minute, they are the same. His ORtg and DRtg are exactly the same as last year. He’s got the best DRtg on the team. He has had the best DRtg on the team since he was a rookie (and as a rookie had the best one in the league). The difference is that DRtg is tied a lot, but not entirely, to overall team defense. The Bulls went from being an elite defensive team with Tyrus as the best defender on it, to being a very very bad defensive team, with Tyrus still as the best defender on the team. Tyrus provides most of his value on the defensive side of the ball. He’s an average to below average player on offense, and a great defensive player. He’s better than you think, but he’s certainly no world-beater.

by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2009 8:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't disagree with the concept he can be a good defensive player

He gives other teams something to think about. I get you there. But it doesn’t solve the Bulls big need, interior scoring. His mental lapses and below average offense don’t help either. If he’s your starting PF, you have to work to find a very good scoring center to balance the team out. That’s a very difficult task. And that’s only if he develops.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions  

We all know this

A lot of his future is up in the air and speculation, but at this time it’s the best we’ve got. Going after Bosh or Amare in 2010 is the ideal scenario, but that requires a lot of salary dumping by Paxson. I don’t believe it’s going to happen, and since Tyrus has been so hot and cold in his career, who knows how much attention he would get in the trade market. Shitty teams like Sacramento would love to grab him, but I think you’d agree it would be foolish to let him go for someone like Brad Miller.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 1, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions  

Basically yes I agree

I’m not a huge fan of the 2010 strategy. I wouldn’t want to deal him for Brad Miller, but if we can use him along with other players to go after an established big (Brand/Boozer/Millsap etc.), I am all for it. I’d even use him to acquire another team’s project big, Brandan Wright or someone like that.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok now you're confusing me

Trading him for an established All-Star, yes.

Trading him for Brandan Wright or other high risk high reward player……what? Haven’t you been leading the charge saying that it’s taken Tyrus too long to show any promise? Why would you want to get another player who is seemingly just as raw (and is being poorly developed on his own team)?

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 1, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

because Wright is a different player, I don't think Tyrus will develop much more

Wright for example is only in his second year, posted a rookie per of 17 and 2nd year per of 19. He scores more than Tyrus, 18 pts/40, and does it more efficiently, much 54% fg 58% TS. And he does most of his scoring in the pain (60% vs. Tyrus 44% inside scoring).

I just don’t think Tyrus is going to make it, or at least his chances of it are slim.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

We haven't heard the argument

That starting Aaron Gray is a good thing in a while.

He’s playing better, you can see that with your own eyes. He’s not a superstar, but then again no one said that, did they?

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Jan 31, 2009 5:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah because I didn't care,

that was the point. It didn’t hurt the team. As you can see, Aaron has been benched and they still suck. My point has been made for me. I’m stunned you don’t see that.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 6:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Aaron has been benched,

and we definitely suck less.

"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com

by Prevenge on Feb 1, 2009 12:37 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess you haven't been following the this last month

Jan team record 7-9. Team record before Jan, 14-18. AKA no difference.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

That's actually exact! Wow.

But while I know what the record is, I’m using my eyes. Gray … just … has[/had] not been getting it done too much. He’s a decent backup. He can’t catch rebounds.
There was the awful 5 game losing streak, a kind of adjustment, but I’ve watched some of the last three games and it’s been by far the best the Bulls have played. Pushingthe ball more to good effect, teamwork and etc.

"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com

by Prevenge on Feb 1, 2009 5:18 PM CST up reply actions  

PER is just a made up stat, dammit

All that matters is how much heart and grit you have.

-Joe Morgan

Why resort to name calling?
-Dionysus2.0

because I wish to insult you personally
-your friendly BullsBlogger

by Big D on Jan 31, 2009 3:52 PM CST reply actions  

Maybe C J Bulls should expand his name to C J Bullshi*

We all know that figures don’t lie but liars figure and that there’s lies, damnded lies and then statistics.
However how would you interpret these stats, B J? And who are you going to believe, your preconcieved biases or your own eyes? My eyes are seeing a light at the end of the dark tunnel regarding both TT and Noah.

TT has converted 103 of his last 214 attempts, a FG % of .481.

Even after missing his first 4 last night, he still has made 78 of his last 94 (.830%)

In the month of January he has blocked an average of 3.45 shots and 1.7 steals per 40 minutes.

Every naysayer constantly nags about all the mistakes he makes but Tyrus has averaged only 1.1 turnovers per game since December 1st and many of those came on offensive charging calls, some of which were dubious.

Would B J like to compare these figures to other more deserving Bulls whose obvious upside potential dwarfs the 22 year old jumping jack?

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Jan 31, 2009 4:45 PM CST up reply actions  

that is 78 of 94 free throws. my bad

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Jan 31, 2009 4:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh hell. Lets compare Tyrus to our other great PF's just for fun, OK BJ?

Drew Gooden is shooting .457 for the season and his FT % is excellent at .866. He has blocked a whopping 0.61 shots per 40 minutes and has had 1.84 turnovers per game in 29.6 minutes. He does lead the team in rebounds with 8.6 rbg but gets many of those at the 5. He has averaged 0.45 steals in longer minutes than Tyrus since Dec. 1. In other words other than getting more rebounds and shooting a higher FT % with less attempts per minute played, DG has performed at a much lower level than your whipping boy.

Now lets look at Noce. He shot only .379 in January and .407 for the season. His FT % is .817 with much less attempts per minute played than Tyrus. He has averaged 0,45 steals and 0.3 blocks per game, an average of 24.5 minutes which is again higher than Thomas’s. He has averaged 1.2 assists and 4.3 rebounds.

In conclusion, I would have to say GAME, SET AND MATCH TO TYRUS THOMAS.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Jan 31, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I forgot to mention that Tyrus has comitted less personal fouls and had fewer turnovers per minutes played than our other stellar PF's.

And can anyone argue with a straight face that Noce or Drew play better help or overall defense than Tyrus? Yes, he gets lost like the rest of the Bulls but he creates more havoc for the opponents than those two combined in misdirecting shots and forcing the ball out of the hands of the cutters..

I rest my case. Your rebuttal BJ?

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Jan 31, 2009 5:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Why do I care how many fouls a player does/doesn't commit?

Yes he gets lost is the problem. He doesn’t have the mentality to adjust his game to his strengths. His top 3 strengths are athleticism, athleticism, athleticism. Not dribbling full court and then losing the ball out of bounds, not shooting jumpers every game, and not losing his man on defense.

Tyrus’ turnover rate is low mainly because he can’t create for himself. All he likes to do is shoot jumpers. He doesn’t try to make plays, which shows in his low assist rate. He catches, looks to shoot, and if nothing’s there passes it back out. Drew and Noc try to create plays. And by the way, his assist rate is lowest of the 3. His turnover rate is the highest of the three. It’s only low per minute because he uses fewer possessions.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 6:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Drew Gooden, play creator

Is there something I’m missing here?

"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com

by Prevenge on Feb 1, 2009 12:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Drew Gooden is a play destroyer, so is Noc. They both stop ball movement

and offensive flow. Noc to a lesser degree than Gooden, but they both do it.

by fundamentallysound on Feb 1, 2009 12:52 AM CST up reply actions  

so I guess you hate Ben Gordon too.

He can stop ball movement. So can half the players currently on the all-star team.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

No, because even when Ben stops ball movement, he's efficient at scoring

even when he goes iso, it’s one of the best ways for the Bulls to use a possession. When Drew or Noc does this they are much more likely not to score or end the possession positively than when Ben does it.

by fundamentallysound on Feb 1, 2009 2:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Try to create plays.

You may not like how he does it, but it doesn’t make the statement incorrect.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions  

No one is saying Tyrus is holding back Noc and Gooden.

I’m saying he should be dumped because very little positive can come from him other than trade value. Even if he does develop, it will be as an activity/defensive player. That means they will now have to find a low post scoring center to pair with him which is near impossible to find, instead of a low post scoring power forward, which are more available.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 6:24 PM CST up reply actions  

It's easy to handpick a good stretch and try to extrapolate it out.

I could make the same argument to justify how Luol Deng should be in the all-star game. But I know better. Taking a small sample and saying, just forget the beginning of the year makes no sense. The value in statistics comes from large sample sizes. That way the good games (8blks) and the bad games (2-17fgs) aren’t getting in the way. And while current sets of stats certainly carry more weight, his don’t blow anyone away.

Tyrus is now playing like an average player on a team that’s now healthy and he can be the 4th/5th option. I don’t see where star player comes in. And that’s IF he can keep this up. His block numbers are bound to go down but a 2.5blk 1.5stl guy. Not to mention blks and stls don’t make a great player. Because he makes spectacular plays doesn’t mean he can follow up in the areas with more value, you know points and rebounds.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 6:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh and forgot my biggest pet peeve of Tyrus

Why can’t he just make a simple block? He always makes a wild block, the type that goes out of bounds. Hasn’t he figured out by now how to soft block the ball so you can start a fast break. Most people figure this out in their first year, or in college. He seems to not get the concept at all. Yes this is nitpicking by the way.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Obviously nitpicking

every other major shotblocker does it… a lot. thats why bill russell gets paid to sit around and tell people how he never blocked a shot to make a statement, but to start a play, and how few guys ever to that today.

by TheMoon on Jan 31, 2009 6:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Not all the guys do it.

but way too many do so you’re right there. It always bugs me.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions  

I wasn't trying to "handpick a good stretch". I was looking at his most recent stats, which indicate he is getting better the longer he is allowed to stay on the court, as are Noah and Thabo.

Which many of us Bab’rs have been arguing all along. To bring in his past 2 years as a counter argument is e

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 1, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Whoops. hit the post button by mistake, but my header is still valid.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 1, 2009 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I wasn't trying to "handpick a good stretch" to justify my position.

I was showing that in the last 2 months, TT has improved his game substantially. It is becoming obvious that the more Noah, Thabo and Tyrus are given minutes, the better their overall game has improved. No need to rehash the reasons why they had to ride the bench while veterans with much lower (if any) upside played ahead of them.

To argue using TT’s latest numbers is “nitpicking” is equivilant to saying if we are going to evaluate Carlos Quintin’s 36 HR, .288 BA and 100 RBI performance in ’08 we would have to include his .215, 5 HR, 30+ RBI year of 2007 to accurately assess his value to the White Sox. Young players can improve if given the opportunity and some blossom later than others.

You have convinced yourself that Tyrus will never be much more than an below average offensive player with a slightly above average defensive potential. You may be right, but if they trade him and it turns out that those of us who have had mancrush fantasies regarding his future studliness were justified in our bball romance, both Paxson and those like you will be subjected to eating lots of crow for a long, long time. And if he turns out not to be what we thought he could be, it would still be easy to move him in the future without having a Larry Hughes like financial burden to carry on the books.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 1, 2009 2:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Very true.

In some ways I agree, obviously the last month has more weight. But I need to see a lot more than one month. And especially since his one month has been ok, nothing great.

I don’t deny that it can happen, but it just isn’t likely. It’s getting to the point where he will no longer have any value.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 2, 2009 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

I looked at how to calculate PER

and I passed out. It is easier to calculate linear weights PER. It is not quite as accurate (it usually slightly undervalues a player, unless they play in a slow system, in which case the appraisal is quite off) but it seems to be close. Anyways, for what its worth, Thomas has a 17.72 January linear weights PER.

by TheMoon on Jan 31, 2009 6:34 PM CST reply actions  

Wow, CJ Bulls.

You should make sure your doors and windows are locked tonight. Tyrusmancrush sounds insane.

by TheMoon on Jan 31, 2009 6:38 PM CST reply actions  

I think the statistical evidence for Noah's improvement is more compelling.

FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2007-08 .482 .691 12.7 10.8 2.2 53.9 13.4 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.71
2008-09 .534 .563 10.5 12.8 1.9 55.2 14.2 13.2 11.6 18.2 16.05

It’s even better when you break it down by month.

Now if this guy could just hit a damn free throw….

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Jan 31, 2009 6:44 PM CST reply actions  

blah

formatting nightmare. This stinks. Sorry about that.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Jan 31, 2009 6:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree

I’m much more confident in Noah. In my mind, they don’t play together on a great team. Not enough offense. I think Joakim plays to his strengths and if he can put on some muscle, he can become a bettter Varejao, or just as good Biedrins.

by CJ Bulls on Jan 31, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I have no problem with dealing Tyrus if it brings in a great post-scoring PF to pair with Noah

the problem I have always had is with people writing Tyrus off because 1) he’s our team’s best defender (even with his occassional “oh crap, where’s my man?” routine) and it’s not close and 2) he’s a pretty good offensive player when he does the things he’s best at (rolling to the hoop off screens, taking his man off the dribble, and getting garbage points on putbacks, etc… you’ll notice most of these things involve Tyrus being around the bucket). His jumpshot is improving and it’s obvious. He’s not a much different player than he was last year. Looking at all the advanced stats from last year compared to this year, he’s better defensively this year (grabbing more steals and blocks), but not as good at scoring and using fewer possessions. I think the whole point of this post is somewhat disingeneous by tyger though, because the difference between PERs of 14.8, 14.6, and 15.0 are not significant. In fact, before last night’s game Tyrus’s PER wasn’t a 15.0 at all, it was 14.8. It shows how silly the whole idea of career high PER for Tyrus is. He’s the same player he’s always been. He’s an average offensive player, but a great defensive player. Kelly Dwyer pointed this out in a recent chat. Tyrus had the best Defensive Rating in the league as a rookie. No other young player has even come close to doing that. The closest ever was Duncan in his second year, but even he wasn’t tops in the league.

by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2009 7:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Disagree about the whole great defender thing

Tyrus has played such a high percentage of garbage minutes over his career that it’s hard to gather much of anything from the already vague DRtg stat. And you say “Tyrus is our team’s best defender and it’s not close” when Tyrus’ DRtg the past two years (103,103) has been just one point better than Joakim Noah’s (104,104). Again, vague statistic.

On 82games adjusted plus minus, Tyrus rated out at 2.21 defensively. That stat too has its weaknesses, but he’s right there again with Noah (2.71) and this time with Thabo (+2.54).

He’s a good defender, but it’s hard to say he’s anything more, especially with opposing PFs torching us this season.

by YaoPau on Feb 1, 2009 4:57 AM CST up reply actions  

why so few?

someone should make another ‘Tyrus is good’ post so we have an even 20

http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/

by NormVanBeer on Jan 31, 2009 8:34 PM CST reply actions  

Ran a rough PER

comparing Tyrus’ December+January stats to 2006-2007 league averages instead of 2008-2009 league averages, since that’s what I had on hand.

So basically, if Tyrus put up his December and January stats in ‘06-’07, his PER would’ve been 18.2 for the past two months with a 55.5 TS%. Take what you want from that, if anything.

by YaoPau on Feb 1, 2009 4:46 AM CST reply actions  

Uh no.

His PER has fallen below 15 after last night’s performance…I would have started a new thread, but then I remembered someone else has started this one!

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 1, 2009 8:19 AM CST reply actions  

Meh, still a career-high.

And I certainly acknowledged that he’d probably have a few bad games.

That said, he played awesome last night, I don’t care what PER said. He had two blocks robbed (one called goal-tending that wasn’t, another called a foul that probably wasn’t) and made a few other hustle plays (like throwing a ball of Richardson’s back to keep a Bulls possession) that wouldn’t show up in PER. I don’t know if it was his best game of the year, but it was one of them.

But meh, why tell you?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 1, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions  

So which is it?

You make a post saying, “Look at Tyrus PER, career high! See he is good”

Then the next day it drops and you follow up with, “I don’t care what PER said.”

So whatever benefits your view of Tyrus is good for you. Do I have that right?

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm developing a CJBulls index

it’s quantifies your commenting output relative to how many threads you ruin for everyone. Taxing work.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 1, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

You know the post referenced my previous post,

“’I’m glad they didn’t end the Tyrus Thomas Era a month or so ago.”

and given how ridiculous the concept was (Tyrus after 3 years has his PER barely above 15, let’s throw a party) I felt justified in ruining it.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

it's that charming attitude which really puts it over the top.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 1, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn't use PER to justify him being "good".

Quote that from my post, please. (you can’t)

I simply pointed out that at this point his PER is higher than it’s ever been in his career. After the horrendous start he had, this implies that he’s simply been a lot better lately in contributing in areas that are factored into PER.

And I’ve long acknowledged and stated routinely that PER is not the end-all, be-all in player analysis.

Why I just responded to you in a rational manner, I have no idea.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 1, 2009 2:46 PM CST up reply actions  

PER can be one of a number of useful metrics for evaluating a player over the course of a season,

but is somewhat misleading when taken in a single game?

"You remember the first time you picked up a basketball video game and you had no idea how to run plays, so you just gave the ball to your shooter and you ran around the court aimlessly until a defender was far enough away and then you jacked up a shot? THAT IS LARRY HUGHES!"
-Anonymous fan letter, heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com

by Prevenge on Feb 1, 2009 5:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice call out Tyger

Embarassing rant by CJ. Rather than implying the dunciness of anyone who doesn’t see the urgency of dumping TT that he does, how about just taking the post for what it is. TT’s PER is now around ave for an NBA player. We all understand that PER is not a perfect stand alone measurement of a player, but it is succinct and widely recognized as having some validity.
   What’s good about TT being ave statistically is that he still has so much upside. It’s strictly conjecture whether or how much he will realize that upside. But that’s the thing about being a fan. Rose colored glasses are ok.

by California Al on Feb 1, 2009 10:46 AM CST reply actions  

He still has so much upside????

He’s now in his 3rd year, widely recognized as a make it or break it year. Where is he heading? How many guys break out after their third year? It rarely happens.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

How many players have done the things Tyrus has done defensively?

The players that have had at least a 5% block rate, 2% steal rate, and 16% defensive rebound rate over at least 3000 minutes played are Tyrus, Oliver Miller, and David Robinson.

Drop the minutes threshold down to 2000 and Ben Wallace joins the list. Drop the block rate down to 4% and the rebound rate down to 15, which is 5 below Tyrus’s career rate, and McGrady, Kirilenko, Olajuwon, and Robert Traylor join the list. That’s still only eight players. Obviously if I keep lowering the standards eventually Stromile Swift would show up, but that doesn’t change the exclusive club Tyrus is in.

by Scotter on Feb 1, 2009 1:16 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

but you're trying to convince me of something I grant

that he has defensive potential. I agree he can be a 2.5blk 1.5 steal guy. But his individual and team defense is only ok right now. And even if he makes it as a defensive player, he doesn’t really help the offensive post scoring woes.

And that doesn’t even begin the argument of blks/stls and what they measure. A lot of the best defenders in the game don’t get a lot of blks/stls. And some of the worst do (iverson stls) (al jefferson blks). For as great as you point out Tyrus individual numbers are, the Bulls defense has regressed every year he’s been here. And he’s not considered any sort of defensive stopper, he’s just a blk/stl guy if that makes any sense.

by CJ Bulls on Feb 1, 2009 1:47 PM CST up reply actions  

You never grant he has defensive potential.

In fact, you just negated that in that very comment by stating that Thomas’s numbers in blocks and steals aren’t really all that beneficial to the team?

So which is it: acknowledging that he has good defensive potential to make you look rational? Or saying he’s a lost cause who plays selfish defense?

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 1, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions  

A wise man once said to me
If you keep struggling against the tide of stupidity you will eventually drown in it.

I don’t know what this guy is really arguing against: that Thomas isn’t good, or if Thomas is evil. Either way, who cares?

by NittanyCub on Feb 1, 2009 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Scotter. You have laid out the case for why the Bulls need to develop Tyrus with clarity, conciseness and reason.

Coming from someone who tends to be long winded
I cannot think of a single thing to add to improve on your commentary

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 1, 2009 5:24 PM CST up reply actions  

"You fail to recognize how good Tyrus already is"

this is my biggest issue with the ‘bust’ crowd. In spite of all his annoying traits he still produces.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 1, 2009 10:41 PM CST up reply actions  

very well said

I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Feb 2, 2009 8:20 AM CST up reply actions  

Well I guess in the meantime

we’ll just keep waiting and waiting and waiting. If he’s still floating around a league average PER again, in his 4th year, will that be enough. When he’s 30 and still shooting 30% jumpers, what about then?

by CJ Bulls on Feb 2, 2009 2:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I've tried to reply to this sarcastically about 6 times

then gave up. I just hate you.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 2, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

i don't think

it works when you flag the moderator.

"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"

by Jaina on Feb 2, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Well

We’ll see in 8 years….but if he plays 30 MPG at a 15 PER, that’s not exactly AWFUL, it’s just Joe Smithian….

Still there’s a great chance given that he’s already at or near thatn 15 PER with his role being herky-jerkied about and his vast array of individual skills that he’ll do far better as he matures…..I mean most guys start getting better, and Tyrus of late is playing far better than a 15 PER seeing as he’s managed to bring up his 12.3 PER to near 15 in the same month that he’s finally gotten more consistent minutes….

by majoyenrac on Feb 2, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Right so you pick the one area where he's shown clear measureble

improvement as your example? And of course you once again underrate his performance. He’s shooting 34% this season, and the company around him isn’t that bad.

by Scotter on Feb 2, 2009 3:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I looked that up but couldn't figure out whether (s)he...

…meant shooting 30% on his jumpshots (underrating him) or 30% of his shots are jumpshots (which isn’t close to correct).

I’m starting to think that due to its overt over-the-topness, it’s gotta be schtick

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 2, 2009 3:36 PM CST up reply actions  

BUT WHAT IF HE WAS 30!?!?!

::froths at the mouth::

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 2, 2009 5:06 PM CST up reply actions  

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