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A few comments on the Bulls backcourt

Here a few observations I've been wanting to make about the team.  In the past thesewould each probably have been a fanpost, but it's too hard to invest that kind of energy into this team.  I give Matt a lot of credit for the quality content he has produced this season.  Here's some observations about the Bulls backcourt.

Ben Gordon: I feel fairly vindicated with my choice in the Blogabull Hinrich/Gordon wars, not that it was a hard choice.  Gordon raises the team's TS% from 51.4% to 52.6%.  He's among the league leaders in raising a team's TS%.  His USG% is also the lowest of his career.  There's a solid argument to be made that Gordon should be shooting more, not less right now.  Gordon continues to be a slightly lesser version of Ray Allen.  Notice the similarities in the rates of their FGA, 3PA, FTA, and TO at age 25 (Both Cassell and Robinson had 20 PERs this season so Allen had a lot more help).  Ben's height will keep him from ever be quite as good as Allen for reasons that have very little to do with defense, but a player that shoots slightly better than Ray Allen and is nearly his equal on both ends of the floor is certainly good enough to be a member of a big three, but I realize an end to the 6th man nonsense and Vinnie Johnson comparisons is probably too much to hope for.

Derrick Rose: It's reached the point where I'm even starting to worry about Derrick.  He's having a strong rookie season, but it's also a little disappointing.  At this point he's doesn't even compare that favorably with the 06/07 version of Hinrich.  Derrick is getting to the FT line less frequently than Hinrich at this point, which is something I wouldn't have predicted based on his ability to get to the line in college.  This isn't just a case of the refs not giving the rookie calls.  Derrick isn't doing the things he needs to do to get to the line, but that's only one area I have concerns about.

Most people seemed to focus on concerns about Derrick's court vision or his shooting before the draft.  I was more worried about whether he would be able to reach his potential as a rebounder and a defender.  Before the draft I compared Derrick's college stats to the college stats of 20+ guards drafted in the last twenty years.  Derrick's college rebounding numbers left a lot to be desired given his athletic ability, and defensively  his steal and block rates were low in addition to the visual evidence of defense issues.  He's had the same issues in the NBA so far.  He's basically posted the same numbers as Ben Gordon as far as rebounds, steals, and blocks so far.  Derrick is also averaging a team low 1.6 PF/36 min.  That' simply further reinforces my belief that he's not being aggressive enough in the non-scoring aspects of the game.  With Hinrich and Deng back and likely to not be involved in a trade, I would think long and hard about scaling back on his offensive role and minutes so that he can concentrate on improving his defense and rebounding.  What happened to the focus on Derrick's development?  I still believe in Rose's potential, but the areas Derrick is struggling aren't areas that naturally see a lot of improvement like turnover or shooting issues.

Larry Hughes:  All I want to say about Larry is that for a few weeks he proved he could be a competent NBA player.  He did it by becoming simply a low turnover jumpshooter.  He stopped his futile attempts at driving to the basket, actually raising his efficiency by taking more jumpers.  His USG% was the lowest of his career and so was his TO% and AST% because he had stopped his ineffectual attempts to create on offense.  He took more 3PA/FGA than at any point in his career, foregoing his persistant desire to take long range 2P shots, which led to the highest TS% of his career.  By doing less Larry was actually being productive, but we all knew Larry wouldn't embrace that concept for long.  For a brief minute I even thought Larry might actually learn from this brief flirtation with actually being an efficient scorer for the 1st time in his life, but then of course as expected Larry reverted to being Larry.

Kirk Hinrich: I am happy to have Kirk back, especially if he continues to come of the bench.  At the beginning of the season he appeared to have at least a  solid shot at returning to his 06/07 level of play.  I would hope his return would mean eliminating Larry's minutes, a renewed focus on Rose's development, and the beginning of trading season.  Unfortunately, I can't realistically expect any of the above.

 

 

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Fantastic post.

I really appreciated the part about Derrick; my biggest concern for him this entire season is his alarming lack of FTAs. Given the fact that he can beat anyone off the dribble, why isn’t he getting to the line more? Honestly, I think one of his problems is that he tries to avoid contact at times so he can attempt to finish. If he would start embracing contact (without becoming too reckless, of course), then I think he can start getting to the line 10+ times a game with relative ease, a la Devin Harris. The thing that really scares me, though, is that it appears this clueless coaching staff (read: VDN) doesn’t appear to be teaching him how to get to the line. That really bothers me.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jan 13, 2009 5:48 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Derrick Rose at 20 = Tony Parker at 20

Rose per 36: 16.1 points, 3.5 boards, 6.0 assists, .8 steals, .2 blks, 2.5 TO, 3.2 FTA
Parker per 36: 16.5 points, 2.8 boards, 5.6 assists, .9 steals, .1 blks, 2.6 TO, 3.8 FTA

So there’s a precedent for players who slash all game and don’t get to the line. Even this year, with Parker averaging 21.3ppg, he’s only getting 4.6 FTA. Their games are essentially carbon copies of one another, although Rose seems more explosive with a better build. (On the other hand, Devin Harris started the same way and now gets 9+ FTA.)

I wouldn’t worry too much about Rose though. Paul and Deron both took huge leaps from their first to third years, and Rose was younger than both when he entered the NBA.

by YaoPau on Jan 13, 2009 5:56 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And along the same lines...

Tony Parker and Devin Harris both took huge leaps at age 23. It might take longer than expected for Rose to become a star, but it’ll come.

by YaoPau on Jan 13, 2009 5:59 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

None of those four had much improvement in their

rebounding, steal, and block rates. Their improvement came largely from what they did with the ball. That’s the primary point I was making. Rebounding and defense were the places Derrick potentially could separate himself from the likes of Parker, Harris, and Deron Williams because of his athletic ability (Paul is on an entirely different level. No one bothers discussing whether Paul or Deron Williams is better anymore). For Derrick to not being a better rebounder and defender than Deron Williams would I hope be a disappointment to most Bulls fans.

by Scotter on Jan 13, 2009 6:32 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Derrick will improve like Parker, Harris, and Deron,

but I’m concerned about Derrick being better than them. Just as good isn’t enough.

by Scotter on Jan 13, 2009 6:33 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly. People need more nuance.

More discerning differences. As good as Parker and Harris are, I want Rose to be better. Those guys aren’t LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, etc. He has the ball-handling, the shooting, athletic ability and the work ethic to do so.

While I would be pleased with a Devin Harris clone, I want Rose to be better.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 14, 2009 8:35 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep.

And I think to maximize his potential, he needs to be banging out 10+ FTAs/game.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jan 16, 2009 12:44 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good post as always

Any reason you didn’t comment on Thabo or Hunter?

In any event, I’m not worried about Rose’s offense or FTs, I’m worried about the other side of the ball. He’s getting killed WAY too much on the defensive end. It’s being overlooked because he’s our franchise guard or whatever, but he has some work to do.

McGraw says the same:

But it’s worth pointing out that Derrick Rose had a miserable run of defense in this game. Portland point guard Steve Blake (16 points, 10 assists) drove past Rose a number of times and shook loose to hit 4 3-pointers. Then when rookie guard Jerryd Bayless checked in, he scored 7 points against Rose in just 5 minutes.

Rose hasn’t been very good defensively all season, but he clearly has the athletic skills to stay in front of defenders. It may take a summer of concentration before he improves in that phase of the game.

http://awsomepeoplesearch.com/

by NormVanBeer on Jan 13, 2009 6:08 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I almost didn't comment on the FTA issue because I think

the non-scoring aspects of his game are the real issue. Derrick with the ball is fine, but nearly everything he does without the basketball has me concerned. Defense and rebounding need to be the focus, especially because he had issues with defense and rebounding in college.

At this point I see Thabo as primarily a SF, I’ll get to Thabo later.What’s there to comment on with Hunter? I don’t mind having him on the roster. I believe his knowledge is actually valuable and he’s not a threat to waste playing time. Someone has to do the coaching on this team, and I’m tired of Drew and Larry volunteering.

by Scotter on Jan 13, 2009 6:18 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Which is why I said a few weeks ago...

….that he’s no better an NBA basketball player today than he was in October. I’m not sure I’d change my mind no that now.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 14, 2009 8:36 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Keep in mind

Derrick is a rookie and gets NO calls. How many times has he driven into the lane, gotten hacked to all hack and no call?

In two years, he will have 8-10 FTA once he gets respect and the calls.

by C Smoove on Jan 13, 2009 6:58 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is some of that

but he is 8th among rookies in FTA, behind both OJ Mayo and Eric Gordon who do a lot more jump shooting. Its perplexing, sometimes its obviously the refs blowing calls or letting them go, but you have ask if their isnt more Derrick can do.

by reprisal on Jan 13, 2009 7:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right. Why is everything about RESPEK and BALLS and DOGS in Chicago?

You guys are nuts.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 14, 2009 8:38 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's about NUTS too!

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 14, 2009 10:09 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mayo and Gordon

do attack the rim though. They’re also bigger, both taller and heavier. Each is also a decent shooter that their defenders have to respect.

Derrick is being giving the jump shot. The defender is tasked with taking away the penetration alone.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Jan 14, 2009 8:50 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On Derrick's Rebounding and Defense

Two statistical categories that are never measured(maybe they are, link me stat fiends) are from where our opponents are getting their shots and where the other four players are positioned on the floor when those shots are taken. Our interior defense has gone to shit because of so many minutes for Noc at the 4 and so many pairings of Noc at the 4 with Gooden at the 5. This is the tandem for total rebounding domination by our opponents. All the shots that would rim out to the free throw line where Rose should get most of his boards are either falling or are becoming dribble penetration attempts at the rim.

Right now, I think the leash on Thomas and Noah are far too short to provide Rose with the effective shot blocking 2nd layer of defense. He can only keep his man in front of him for so long. Eventually the screen is going to enter taking him out of the play. With Noc and Gooden behind him patrolling the paint it’s forcing our opponents into attack the rim and crash the boards mode.

We have to get stops defensively and rebound the basketball to get to transition opportunities where Rose is going to get fouled. He’s still learning the angles in the paint to get the right shot off, but he is drawing the contact. He’s just not getting a lot of the calls that he’s going to get next season and beyond. His layups are still accustomed to the college game where he just wanted them to go in, where as in the NBA you want them to go in and you want to penalize the defense by drawing the foul. He’ll eventually elevate sooner initiating the contact immediately and then use his balance to gather in the air to get up a good shot off the glass.

We’re in a critical timeline here with Thomas and Noah. Thabo should be thrown in as much as possible at the SF. We have to get defensive stops to get out and run. In transition we’ll get Rose back on track, get leads or keep them close, which will subsequently allow Rose to turn on “protect the lead” Derrick Rose.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Jan 13, 2009 7:20 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would agree that there is a lack of foul line rebounds and that Noc and Gooden

are atrocious. The Bulls allow 39% of opp. FGA in the paint, tied with OKC for worst in the league. I took that into consideration before posting. But, it isn’t enough to completely absolve Derrick. These are problem areas he’s had dating back to at least college, and they’re areas where players don’t typically improve. Derrick is good, but the people who think players like Derrick are immune from craptastic coaching are naive. He’s more coach proof than most because he dominates the ball, but coaching and addressing the areas I’m concerned about will mean the difference between Derrick being very good and great

by Scotter on Jan 13, 2009 7:43 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You'd think that kinda coaching

would be worth a lot of money to the Bulls =-\

Derrick’s best month rebounding was Nov, so clearly Vinny isnt helping him there. Some of the decline is probably due to energy level, its one of the easiest things to slack on

by reprisal on Jan 13, 2009 9:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the Bulls

sure did pick a time to get cheap with their coach. How many teams after just landing the #1 pick and taking a PG ,when was the last time a PG went #1?? This is supposed to be your court leader and you give him a rookie coach with NO coaching experience!! Either Pax was tired, blown away or couldn’t spend $$. “Love it live!”

I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Jan 13, 2009 9:35 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

last PG #1

Allen Iverson, 1996. His coach that season was Johnny Davis. The team finished 22-60. Davis lasted one season and was dismissed.

Sixers hired Larry Brown the next season and started pushing defense. Naturally, with most Brown teams they just slowed the pace, but it was effective. In Brown’s third season they were competing for the East crown.

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Jan 14, 2009 9:08 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great link

Now, do you know if these stats have splits? By month, home and away, etc?

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Jan 14, 2009 9:03 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They're for the season,

but only up 1/3/09 at this point. 82games does periodic updates about every two weeks.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 11:04 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Rebounding

I’m not a fan of taking per 36 comparisons at face value. BG’s never averaged more than 3.2 RPG. Even this year he’s 3.2 RPG at 36.4 MPG, a huge leap from 3.1 RPG he averaged the prior year over 31.8 MPG. The per 36 calculates him at 3.9 RPG and reduces Derrick’s 3.6.

I think if you can average 4 RPG at the PG position, you’re a damn good rebounding PG. Chris Paul is a terrific rebounding PG and he’s averaged 4 and 4.4. prior to this year and 5+ his rookie year before they got Tyson. Tyson can’t stay on the court this year, and CP3 is back over 5 RPG.

by messwiththebull on Jan 13, 2009 10:56 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And the Bulls are a much better

rebouding team than New Orleans this year. That 3.6 is better than you think. My succinct pre-2007 projections (posted somewhere on here) were 17.5 PPG 6.5 APG 4.5 RPG 50% FG and that 4.5 would have been the most impressive result out of that line.

by messwiththebull on Jan 13, 2009 11:00 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Derrick's rebound rate

 doesn’t stack upthat impressively. Besides the point isn’t that he has to be doing it now, but that he has all the tools to be very near the top in the league, so he ought to be learning how.

by reprisal on Jan 13, 2009 11:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Firstly

If I said I don’t like taking per 36 at face value, I sure as hell don’t like taking per 48 at face value, which you guys seem to be doing. There’s no way I see Mardy Collins, Anthony Carter, and Mike Conley as the 7th – 9th most “impressive” rebounding PG no matter what per N pro-rated values you provide. You’ve got to look beyond the output if you can.

For example, every technical indicator can tell me a market is oversold and that it is time to go long. Every one, but if I can read the market and realize that there is a great deal of fear and liquidiation going on, perhaps my indicators shouldn’t be relied upon so authoritatively.

Kidd and Rondo are the obvious leaders, they are beasts. Westbrook spends a fair amount of time at the 2, even moreso now with Watson playing PG on the team and I think he’s putting up close to 6 RPG since that change. Chris Paul I already mentioned. There are way too many guys with sub-25 MPG on your list to take those numbers, especially at a per 48 basis, too seriously and one should certainly be skeptical about taking them at face value.

Can Rose rebound better, sure, but I don’t want him rebounding THAT much better. If he’s getting 5+ RPG, that’s not necessarily a good sign about the team he’s playing on in terms of rebounding.

by messwiththebull on Jan 14, 2009 6:09 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Regarding Gordon

What you call a slightly lesser version of Ray Allen, I call an equal version of Leandro Barbosa. See below, paying particular attention to the ‘advanced’ stats.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=gordobe01&y1=2009&p2=allenra02&y2=2001&p3=barbole01&y3=2008

by Mr M on Jan 13, 2009 10:36 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Must be nice to be the Suns

and sign your players to extensions right before their best season.

by reprisal on Jan 13, 2009 11:21 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the big difference is that Ben's ORtg is the same as Barbosa's even though his USG % is 3 percentage

points higher. There is a tradeoff between efficiency and usage. In essence, when you handle the ball more and use more possessions, efficiency tends to go down. So Ben’s producing at that high a level of efficiency while handling more possessions makes him a better offensive and more efficient offensive player than Barbosa.

by fundamentallysound on Jan 14, 2009 12:38 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It seems that cut and dry

numbers are great when put into context, but putting them into context requires you to have the knowledge and perspective to do so. The overwhelming propensity to take these numbers at face value here on BaB and use them as the basis of critique, even to the point of accusing professionals of not knowing their own craft leads me to believe that many are compensating for their inabilty to decipher on-court action (thus hindering their abilty to evaluate personnel and decisions made) with their on-the-job skills. Sure, you may be great at discounting cash flows, but your valuation can be way off because you think you know more than you do. I suspect that if 82games.com and basketball-reference.com were blocked from your internet service and Hollinger withdrew all his analysis, many on BaB would be completely unable to offer any player evaulation opinions and be neutered down to the level of essentially cheering and booing fans.

by messwiththebull on Jan 14, 2009 8:24 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

lol

12/31: Fire Vinny Del Negro.

by NBA Observer on Jan 14, 2009 10:26 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Whatever.

Besides I created a spreadsheet that calculates everything from B-R and more for me. I can even go old school and breakout the calculator. It’s stats and observation, one should be a check on the other. That’s why Dean Oliver’s statistical system is the best, you have to bring your brain. Now back to Mr M.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 11:23 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're a hell of a smart guy

and I genuinely respect you and appreciate your analysis. I click on every post of yours without hesitation. I like stats, too, but I’m more of a Barry Codell guy than a Bill James fan, if you can get what I’m saying.

But I’ve received and witnessed more than enough pretentious, snotty replies made by people who referencing those sites to be perhaps be a little too quick to be pretentious and snotty right back.

by messwiththebull on Jan 14, 2009 8:42 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

they aren't statistical clones.

but the usg difference is negated to a degree by the win shares advantage barbosa has over BG. I would call them a wash all things considered. You’re missing my point , which is simply that barbosa is a far more comparable player to age 25 bg than ray allen.

by Mr M on Jan 14, 2009 11:13 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, winshares is tied to team wins.

It’s a good stat as far as ranking systems go, but it’s not a good stat for player comparison.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 1:11 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the winshares difference is tied to the fact that Ben's numbers are based on 38 games

whereas Barbosa’s are for a 82 game season. If you standardize them to Win Shares per 3,000 minutes (about 36 mins a game for 82 games) then you get… Ben Gordon WS/3000 mins = 6.94 and Barbosa WS/3000 mins = 7.14. That difference is negligible and then when you factor in that WS is tied to actual team wins and Ben is on a shit team and Barbosa was on a good one, you see again that Ben is the better player and you are still wrong.

by fundamentallysound on Jan 14, 2009 3:26 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Equal version?

At best you can get Allen>Gordon>Barbosa out of that. You have to take context into consideration, especially when you’re dealing with players whose value is almost entirely determined by scoring. If Gordon and Barbosa tie in TS% and ORtg it isn’t really a tie, context matters. Gordon is the 1st option on a bad offensive team. Barbosa is running around with Nash and Amare. At least go to through the mental exercise of switching what team Gordon and Barbosa play for. Who do you think does better? A straight statistical way of approaching this is looking at usage. Ben’s USG% has always been higher than Barbosa’s, 2.5% in the year you used. According to Dean Oliver’s rule of thumb that’s worth an additional 2.5 points on Gordon’s ORtg.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 11:02 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I forgot to add.

Ben is putting up a 111 ORtg as the leading scorer on a 105 ORtg team. Barbosa put up a 111 ORtg on a 113 ORtg team as the 3rd/4th option. See the difference? Context matters.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 11:10 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

could it be argued that ray allen was a 2nd or 3rd option on the bucks?

Big Dog and Cassell were on that team. If age 25 Ray Allen was on this bulls team, I would argue that his ORTG would be substantially higher than his Bucks team due to him being the clear #1. Is that enough context for you?

by Mr M on Jan 14, 2009 11:17 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, because you have it backwards.

Yes, Allen was basically a 2nd or 3rd option on those Bucks teams, which is why I’m comfortable comparing him to Ben Gordon, despite the higher FG% and ORtg.

If Allen and Gordon are switched, Allen’s efficiency goes down and Gordon’s go up. There is a penalty for being the number 1 option because that player takes all the tough shots. Gordon has been assisted on only 45% of his jumper and 22% of his inside shots this season. Barbosa was assisted on 73% of his jumpers and 51 of his inside shots. Allen in Seattle was assisted on about 55 of jumpers and 28% of inside shots. He goes to Boston as the third option and his assisted% looks like Barbosa’s, 70% and 49. A catch and shoot jumper is something like 3 more likely to go in than an unassisted jumper, and it’s even higher for inside shots. Plug Gordon into Boston or Phoenix and his efficiency goes up. If you haven’t all already read Dean Oliver’s Basketball on Paper, I was rereading it yesterday.

Barbosa also gets a 1/3 of his FGA inside the paint. Gordon and Allen consistently get only a 1/5 of their FGA inside the paint. This is true of Allen even after he came to Boston. I don’t make comparisons without thinking them through, and I don’t do it based simply on a direct stats comparison. Gordon and Allen have similarities in style of play that they don’t share with Barbosa. Barbosa simply isn’t a good comparison for Gordon.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 11:59 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

ok

USG and Otrg are not necessarily inversely related. players like devin harris, al jefferson off the top of my head, who recently switched teams (like ray allen would in my argument) in their age 24/25 year and had both increased usg and OTRG along with a more important role, back my point.

Your assist stat is nice, but more IMO indictative of a bulls offense that lets Rose and Gordon take turns going one on one to make something happen for themselves rather than a conventional, spread the balll around to open shooter, read: effective offense .

Basing a player’s style on his assisted baskets isn’t a great way, as its more indicative of the offense they are playing. Your Ray Allen example in seattle vs boston backs this up (he didn’t become a jump shooter overnight).

Yes you certainly think your comparisons through, but the conclusions you are drawing from your stats may be flawed. Stll waiting for Tyrus to turn into Shawn Kemp btw…I think it was you that said that.

Anyway, agree to disagree, i’m out.

by Mr M on Jan 14, 2009 2:48 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so cute

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 14, 2009 3:18 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay, I'll hit my head against a brick wall one more time for the

sake of the reading audience. USG and ORTG are inversely related, it’s just not a linear relationship, and other factors come into play such as age, role changes, and system changes. USG v. ORtg obviously isn’t an exact science (Which is why it continues to be one of the fundamental areas of basketball research), but it’s a lot more predictable for players that get the majority of their points off of jump shots.

Gordon and Allen aren’t point guards and centers. They were both nearly finished products when they got to the NBA as most jump shooters are. Even ignoring that, Jefferson increased his USG, not his ORtg and his role didn’t fundamentally change. Jefferson was likely going to have about 109 ORtg whether he was using 20 or 27% of possessions, that’s the non-linear nature of the USG/ORtg tradeoff. If he went back to Boston and took Perkins’ place, I’m pretty confident that he would have a much lower USG% and a higher ORtg.

Harris didn’t put huge numbers when he got to New Jersey. He put up huge numbers when New Jersey out in a new offensive system, basically designed for him. Harris is a nice story, but a 25 year old penetrating point guard doesn’t have a lot to say about the USG/ORtg tradeoff of 25 year old jump shooting 2 guards.

Gordon’s assisted numbers were similar under Skiles as well when they were sharing the ball, although he did get more of his inside shots assisted on. Ray Allen didn’t become a jump shooter in Boston and it’s not a system difference between Seattle and Boston. Allen had to take more jump shots off the dribble in Seattle because he wasn’t open as much because he was the #1 player the defense was trying to stop.

And if you’re still waiting for Tyrus to turn into Kemp, I appreciate your patience, but you didn’t understand the point of the comparison. Somehow that doesn’t surprise me.

by Scotter on Jan 14, 2009 3:42 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Rose

The biggest worry I have about Rose is that I don’t see how he’s going to get much “development” in this CF of an offense with this CF of a coach coaching him.

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Jan 14, 2009 8:02 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Looking back on this, it doesn't really get across more than "I'm pissed at VDN"

to try and put it a little more coherently, it’s one thing to suggest what’s the best way to develop him going forward, but I look at the “development” to date and, if anything, see damage done. And given that, I don’t have much confidence in the coach getting it right going forward.

In short, I’m worried every additional day with VDN is another day spent ruining what we’ve got in Rose.

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Jan 14, 2009 2:37 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I've had this thought as well...

…but I’ve convinced myself that getting “used to” 82 games at 35 mpg is enough of an adjustment. Not that he couldn’t play that much AND be taught how to play right OR that if he’s playing that much in a way that is actually hurting him, it’s not accumulating/reinforcing more and more bad habits… but yeah, that’s what I’m trying to convince myself. He’s developing a playing time aptitude no matter what. Or something.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Jan 14, 2009 3:21 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not going to convince myself of that.

Rose at the beginning of the season wasn’t quiet. I dunno what changed there, but it looks like someone told him to shut up. I could be wrong, but that’s the perception I get.

Rose at the beginning of the year was driving to the hoop with reckless abandon. I don’t see that any more. I could be wrong, but that looks like something he’s “learned” not to do that I wish he were still doing.

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Jan 14, 2009 3:29 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good post

and it shows how much the Bulls screwed up by hiring VDN. Rose needs to be taught the game. He is far to young and raw to just roll out the basketball and let him wing it which is essentially what the Bulls are doing. I’m not to concerned about rebounding rates and fouls per 36 minutes – its his overall agressiveness that bothers me. And that seems to have a lot to do with coaching. Rose can play aggressive (see the beginning of the season, every big game in college) but it has to be coaxed out of him. Right now, I don’t see VDN doing anything to bring him along.

by Basketball Smurf on Jan 14, 2009 4:59 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

huh?

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 16, 2009 11:53 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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