The Bulls' "center" problem. (and hope?)
by chicago-homesick-blues on Sep 19, 2008 1:47 PM CDT
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PrintThe Bulls only have two true centers: Joakim Noah and Aaron Gray. Last season, these two centers collectively averaged only 10.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 31 minutes per game. To view these statistics as percentages of the whole team, these two true centers accounted for 10% of all scoring, 20% of all rebounds, and 12.5% of total minutes. Even worse: Noah and Gray only attempted 8.3 shots per game, which is only 1/11 of total shots attempted by the team (team total: 83.7/game.)
At first glance, these numbers suggest that the Chicago Bulls are starting off the up-coming season with centers that are not "carrying their own weight". The center position is a pivotally important position due to its inheritly close proximity to the basket, and it MUST equate to more than 10% of scoring, 20% of rebounds, 12.5% of total minutes, and 11% of total field goals attempted! The anchor of the Bulls' offense and defense relies on players playing well at the center position.
Last season Gooden and Smith spent time playing center. This is why the Bulls only had a true center playing 12.5% of the time! (see PS) Following this strategy in 08-09 will give more time to Thomas and Nocioni at the power forward position. Floating these players lessens the burden at Center, but Gooden is not a true center, nor is Nocioni a true power forward. Extending players as such is to move players out of their natural element and niche. This is not a solution for a winning team. (A team can only go so far playing "small".)
No matter how much love we have for Joakim Noah and Aaron Gray, they are still only 2nd year players. And we can't expect anything definitive from Asik Omer.
Noah and Gray will need to mature beyond the years and experience they have acquired in order for them to be the staple the Bulls need at center. Certainly their statistics will improve in EVERY AREA in 08-09, but by how much?
I will not end on a bad note! I'd like to provide you all with a month by month track of Joakim Noah's development from last season.
| X | minutes/game | reb./game | field goal % | points/game |
| November | 11.8 | 3.4 | .360 | 3.2 |
| December | 12.5 | 2.8 | .449 | 4.6 |
| Jan | 20.7 | 7.2 | .474 | 6.6 |
| Feb | 21.0 | 5.1 | .483 | 5.5 |
| March | 27.1 | 7.9 | .510 | 9.1 |
| April | 31.4 | 6.8 | .524 | 10.6 |
If you graph these numbers, and extend the line (with a little hope), here are the numbers Noah will start off with in 08-09 (approximately):
| 35 | minutes/game |
| .535 | field goal percent |
| 8.5 | rebounds/game |
| 12 | points/game |
If Noah can start the season performing at this level, the Bulls offense and defense will be transformed into something new: a winning team.
(Postscript: The statistics in the first and second paragraphs have an important caveat: Ben Wallace played a large part of the season at the center position. He accounted for 4 points and 8 rebounds per game in 07-08 for the Bulls, which justly increased the points, rebounds, and minutes per game for players in the center position. I decided to exclude Ben Wallace from the statistics because he will not be in on the team in 08-09. I agree the statistics are not completely accurate, but by including this caveat, I hope my point is clear.)
(Postscript 2: Noah's best month came during April. Gooden sat out all of April. This may have inflated Noah's numbers that month.)
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Field Goal %
Wow, Noah’s shot selection/finishing ability really improved with increased minutes. I was really disappointed to see that he has not yet developed even a simple power move inside, but at the same time I don’t mind if he just becomes an efficient garbage man for us, cleaning up on the offensive glass like he is already capable of. The key for him is going to be his conditioning, which looked AWFUL during summer league play.
Asked what kind of player he expects to be in the next five years, he said: "Not a star, but like, a superstar. Something around, like, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, something like that."
Noah
had a lot more opportunities after Wallace left and I thought he had a solid rookie year taking everything into account. If he can learn to clean up under the basket (something Wallace couldn’t do…remember the “missed at point blank range” the poor commentators had to say so often) and develop a post move or two he will easily out-do Wallace. We won’t have a 35 minute a night dead weight like we had with Wallace.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
I'd like to see Noah develop a hook shot...
He’s never going to be a turnaround jump shooter (he can’t even shoot the "j") but if he could get a shades of Jabbar hook shot, he’d have his go to move in the paint. A true hyook shot is one of the highest percentage shots after a dunk. It’s unsexy, but it’s effective.
Also, Noah’s defense is disruptive and he’s got quick hands and length. HE gets a lot of steals that way, but he should try to use his length to get blocks. Duncan gets most of his blocks flat-footed: it’s all about keeping your hands high and timing.
As fro rebounding, his per 40 minute and per 48 minute averages are like 11 and 13 respectively. He’s good in that department.
New Staff
He might get a little better coaching on how to play the position with the new staff. It’s not like there was a lot of big man development under Skiles.
Sorry but
if you are looking for improvement in Noah conditioning, think again, he smokes weed. Noah will disappoint you if you’re hoping for him to bulk up and play his position. When our season ended he didn’t even hit the gym and improve on his strength. Seriously, when you get backed down by a small forward in Artest and get hammered on, when does it click I have to get strong?
really disagree with Rose08.
First off, inferring that because Noah smokes pot, he will not improve his conditioning, has no basis. to break your logic: Josh Howard smokes pot, and he works out hard.
Many NBA players smoke pot. I would guess that 15% of NBA players smoke weed (at some point in the season.) Just because Noah smokes doesn’t mean he’s a chronic. As long as he can appropriately separate out when TO and TO NOT, smoking can be a good thing for him.
Also, most players don’t bulk up during the season, they bulk up during the off-season. During his rookie year Noah had to play NBA basketball, had to learn how to play against NBA caliber players.
LOOK AT HIS LAST 2 MONTHS’ stats! Look at that improvement! The game isn’t all strength. how about finesse, talent, and IQ?
by chicago-homesick-blues on Sep 20, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
While it is disappointing to hear about Noah's summer "activities"
from all I’ve heard it is common for rookies not to take their first summer seriously enough. I’d love it if Noah was an exception, but it sounds like he is “normal” in that respect. That doesn’t mean he is going to nose dive during this season. He is just going to get a big reality check (as if his huffing and puffing down the court during Rose’s debut wasn’t bad enough) and not see as much growth as he could have potentially had otherwise.
Everything I post is speculation. I have no insider information nor ideas deemed concrete enough by those who are self-elected to regulate post content.
He smokes weed nooooooooooooooooooooooo he's doomed!!!!
Not everyone is wired like Kobe Bryant and works out every day of the year like a maniac. Most NBA players relax in the offseason, and when it gets close to training camp time they get themselves back in shape. So he was out of shape and dysfunctional in some meaningless summer league games? That’s not a warning sign, that’s just frustrating/disappointing as a fan.
"I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Gonna kick some ass in the USA. Gonna climb a mountain, gonna sew a flag, gonna fly on an eagle. I’m gonna kick some butt, gonna drive a big truck. I’m gonna rule this world. I’m gonna kick some ass. I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Rock, flag, and eagle!"
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 20, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a lot more positive about Noah
For where he’s at in his career, he’s been nothing less than spectacular. I don’t think that the game’s been built around the banging low post center for the last 35 years, with one anomaly. Whether he’ll put together a championship quality game on the NBA level remains to be seen, but nothing he’s done so far tells me can’t. Last year was a tale of 2 centers; the jaded old pro sucking the air out of the room vs the maniac kid trying to energize the party. The old bull was put to pasture. Let’s hope Noah, TT and Rose fire things up around here.
Carlitro makes a key point. One of PhiJax’s favorite attributes is simplistic, and JN seems to excel: go get the ball!
agree, but a starting center?
I support Noah. I think he’s great, absolutely and relatively (to TT.)
But, I do question his role as a starting center at point in his career. He is underdeveloped offensively. His shooting form and hook-shot ability are below average. But his hustle, drive, and IQ are above average. Defensively, he’s great too!
I want to see him as the Bulls’ starting center. But there needs to be improvement in his mechanics if he’s going to be on the court for 37 minutes a game.
by chicago-homesick-blues on Sep 20, 2008 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
And I expect he'll realize the same things
He’s got great length, and it will only take 2-3 post moves to make him very effective. No reason for him to not start; Rose is what, 4-5 years away from his prime? If you think winning 50 games this year is the highest priority, you take the same tact as last year. If you believe, as I do, that our best talent is very raw, you are looking at where you want them to be in 3 years and start working everything in that direction. I’d say it’s going to be more like the old core trying out for Rose’s team than the younger players trying to get minutes.
Heft
I’m concerned about the lack of heft the Bulls have in the paint with Joakim at center. I think he might need someone next to him that’s similar to an Al Horford. Someone who at power forward possesses great strength and power.
I’m not too concerned about Noah offensively. As long as he can pass, finish and move without the ball I’m happy. He’s extremely unlikely to ever become a go-to guy …. that will have to be the guy next to him at power forward.
by NBR on Sep 23, 2008 7:31 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
From what I saw last year
he ran a very effective pick and roll only to have Kirk dribble away from him w/o looking. They need to make the d respect that roll and sag to the paint, as his quick moves and length are his offensive assets. He’s going to bulk up with age in a couple of years and looks adequately strong; not Howard or Shaq strong, but adequate.
I am a Noah fan but I’d be surprised if he bulked up. He is naturally lean and it looks like he would have a hard time adding serious muscle. To do so, he would need to live in the weight room and make his conditioning the top priority. I’m not sure he is that type of player. I think the best we can hope is for him to get stronger so he’s not pushed around by smaller players, but I doubt he’ll ever be a banger-type.
This is what he'll look like in about 24+ years !
http://images.google.ch/imgres?imgurl=http://www.babble.com/CS/blogs/famecrawler/2007/10/16-22/yannick-noah.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.babble.com/CS/blogs/famecrawler/archive/2007/10/16/Boris-Becker-And-Son-Noah-Have-A-Sports-Circle-of-Hair-With-Yannick-Noah-and-His-Son-Joakim-Noah.aspx&h=734&w=500&sz=102&hl=fr&start=4&um=1&usg=___2tsp6R99QtH7k6ao11Ejaqxyj8=&tbnid=fbY10OX_Zd3JRM:&tbnh=141&tbnw=96&prev=/images3Fq3Dyannick2BNoah26um3D126hl3Dfr26sa%3DN
The Game chose him !
oops
should be this (scroll down to the picture of Yannick with the girl) :
The Game chose him !
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