Ben Gordon to Atlanta?

by J Theory on Aug 7, 2008 1:28 PM CDT Comment 53 comments

Now we know that Chicago and Atlanta are having trouble signing Josh Smith and Ben Gordon to a contract. Why not work out a sign and trade between both teams?

As restricted free agents both Gordon and Josh Smith will be base year players when they sign their new contracts. A team can only take back half of a salary in a trade of a base year players. The only way Chicago and Atlanta can make a trade work is if two trades occur.

AI from the sixers is seeking a 5 year contract worth 70 mil. So let's take that number to figure out what Smith would be willing to sign for. I'm thinking 12-14 mil considering his reputation but taking into account his talent.

Now for Gordon, He is demanding more than Deng which is about 9 mil this season. Compared to other restricted free agents this year he probably would take 10 mil.

How does Josh Smith to Chicago for Gooden ($7,151,183), 1st Round Draft Pick, and a second round draft pick.

Gordon to Atlanta for Speedy Claxton (5,757,818)

Of course Chicago gives up more with an expiring contract and a first round draft pick and also takes Claxton's bad contract but Smith does have talent. Chicago would play Smith at PF. The Bulls would go into luxury tax and may have to move some players like Nocioni after this but Jerry said he would pay the luxury tax if it was worth it. A talent like Smith might be worth it.

Benefits for Atlanta is that they save money after this year, remember Bibby's contract expires after this season also; that would make Atlanta a major player in Free Agency next year. Gordon would come off the bench as a sixth man with his instant offense.

So what do you guys think? Should we get Paxson on the phone?

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Pax's phone is disconnected

Either that or Jerry screens all incoming and outgoing calls.

by kingj41 on Aug 7, 2008 1:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

that would be exceedingly messy to do

for one. for two, Gooden and Gordon are better than Claxton and Josh Smith. I like Josh Smith, but he’s become overrated over the course of this summer. He’s a poor three point shooter, and jump shooter in general, but he still shoots them (atleast one a game). He’s a good defensive player, but not really much different than Tyrus in that regard (I’d argue that Tyrus is a better defender) and he’s not a very efficient offensive player (ORtg’s of 100, 103, 99, and 102 for the four years he’s been in the league. His EFG % is only .459% for his career (mostly because he takes so many ill-advised 3s). Tyrus is a better rebounder, Smith is the better passer, they are about even for their careers in blocks and steals %. They are really very similar players and giving up Gordon and Gooden in order to acquire a slightly upgraded version of Tyrus is not that appealing to me, especially since Smith is older and Tyrus could and should be better.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I am not a Josh Smith fan either

for those reasons you stated…and you didn’t even mention the ‘loony tunes’ aspect of it.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 7, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Not to make it too simple

But they’re virtually the same age (Smith is 8 months older), Smith puts up 18/7 and Tyrus 7/5. I’d call that a little more than a slight upgrade. For an offensively challenged team that NEEDS Ben Gordon so much, maybe Smith is a better option.

All that said, he has a lot of red flags like why his own team doesn’t seem in a rush to sign him(see Gordon, Ben also). Not to mention the double sign and trade is extremely difficult to pull off.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 2:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

gah, look beyond per game stats

and you’ll get a clearer picture. Tyrus’s per game stats are a function of his lack of playing time.

Player    G    MP       PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% Usg% ORtg DRtg
Smith     307 10129 17.2 .509 .459  7.4 19.4 13.3 14.1  1.8  5.9 15.8 21.9   101 105
Thomas 146  2296 14.7 .500 .444  9.3 21.1 15.1  9.1  2.1  5.1 16.3 20.2   98  99

those are all ratios. They indicate that TT is the better rebounder, (both offensive and defensive), Tyrus is slightly better at stealing the ball, Smith at blocking shots. TT turns the ball over a bit more and gets 1/3 fewer assists. Their TS% are very close and I’d guess TT’s will go up since he doesn’t insist on taking terrible 3 pointers whereas Smith does. When TT adds some bulk to finish better and improves his jumpshot, as we’ve already seen evidence of, he’ll post higher shooting % than Smith because he focuses inside the 3 point line. Tyrus only produces 98 points per 100 possessions (ORtg) for his career but only gives up 99 points per 100 possessions (DRtg), whereas those numbers for Smith are 101 and 105 respectively. TT isn’t as good as Smith, no one would argue that, but when you have two players that are so similar why would you go through a very tough trade with double BYC issues and give up two valuable assets (BG and Gooden and his expiring deal) for a player that replicates but improves upon a player you already have? It makes no sense, so I deem this trade idea dumb.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hm,

well that didn’t paste like I wanted. Go here and scroll down to advanced stats to see what I was attempting to paste.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fund..

Do you see the Bulls actually using Goodens expiring contract? We’ve seen the same scenario with PJ Brown, Sweetney, and Davis. Might as well use it than just hold on to it and let it expire.

by J Theory on Aug 7, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gooden is as valuable, if not more, as a player for our team this year

than he is as an expiring contract. He’s a good, but unspectacular player. He’s a banger who will get you boards and points and if used in the right manner could be very valuable to us. The proper way to utilize him would be to “Othella Harrington-ize” him in the words of the great Kelly Dwyer. Meaning play him 18-20 minutes a game mostly during the second and third quarter when the second units are getting burn. He’ll get you some post production and a lot of rebounds, but if you use him anymore than that he’s stunting development and killing your team with ill-advised jumpers with a weird hitch in the release.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me Likey

Othella 2.0

by gman2849 on Aug 7, 2008 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's because Dwyer, more than anyone I read, knows what the hell

he’s talking about. He’s great and if you don’t frequent the Ball Don’t Lie Blog over at Yahoo, you’re missing out. Skeets brings the funny, Dwyer brings the analysis and it’s a whole lot of awesome.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Per game stats do have value

Look no further than the Sweetney post that is still up here. Last year, Smith was the best player on an 8th seeded (yes, very mediocre) Hawks team. Tyrus was like the 7th best player on a horrible Bulls team. You can’t just pull Tyrus per minute stats and assume they translate. They’re a tool. For one, Tyrus would foul out in these games. For another, there are holes in Tyrus’ game that don’t show up in the stat sheet.

Tyrus’ upside is a player similar to Josh Smith. Smith is already there.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they don't have as much value as you think they do

and study after study shows that players (especially young ones) increase their productivity with more minutes and anecdotal evidence and watching with my own eyes, Tyrus plays very well with extended minutes when he knows he’s not going to get yanked at the first sign of trouble (see: Denver game after the Wallace trade). It’s not Tyrus’s fault that Skiles wasn’t smart enough to play him.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So why do players like Sweetney and Amir Johnson not get minutes?

And why aren’t more teams banging down the Bulls doors to acquire Tyrus?

How does Tyrus know he’s not going to get yanked? And if that were the case, why wouldn’t they just do that with him every game, tell him he won’t get yanked that way he goes for 20/12. I think you might have the whole chicken/egg thing backwards. Maybe Tyrus got extended minutes because he was playing well and not fouling out.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he knew he wasn't going to get yanked in the Nuggets game

because Ben and Joe Smith were gone and Gooden hadn’t arrived yet. Earlier in the year whenever Joe Smith was injured, it was nearly a guarantee of more minutes for Ty and he responded in those situations. Amir Johnson SHOULD get more minutes, him not receiving more minutes is a travesty and a point of bitterness among many Pistons fans. Sweetney would have been productive but he ate himself out of the league, he’s a special case, and I think it’s safe to say Tyrus won’t be eating his way out any league ever.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

also,

look at what happened to the coaches who didn’t play those guys. Skiles didn’t play Tyrus and he got fired. Flip didn’t play Amir Johnson and he got fired. Doc Rivers did play Leon Powe plenty. He produces big in limited minutes and helped to win a championship. Allowing players to play, especially when they are very productive, is the smart move and not doing so can get you fired.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So it's just a conspiracy to keep these players down?

You crack me up. Skiles got fired because he didn’t play Tyrus? Flip got fired because he didn’t play Amir Johnson? Do you really think that was the reason? And it’s a good thing the Celtics had Leon Powe. He was the whole key to the season. Forget about Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Perkins, Rondo, and Posey. Leon Powe did it.

These players have holes in their games. They don’t always make the smart play and that’s why the coach doesn’t play them. They are successful because they are valuable in limited situations. Amir Johnson for example isn’t big enough and doesn’t play big enough for the Pistons liking. So they only put him in in blowouts or when teams roll out smaller, more athletic lineups. If they were full time players, they wouldn’t post the same numbers. Same goes for Powe. He’s limited by his size. These aren’t full time players. The Celtics aren’t rushing to give big minutes to Powe this year. He’s going to get about the same playing time.

BTW
GP MIN
Amir Johnson 62 12.4
Leon Powe 56 14.5

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skiles did get fired because he didn't play Tyrus and Noah

in a season when we were losing a lot of games anyway. Maybe Flip didn’t get fired because he didn’t play Amir, but if Amir has more experience and gets burn against the Celtics instead of Theo Ratliff you don’t think that makes a difference in that series? I do. Also, my Leon Powe point was overstated. My main point was that they developed him properly and he was able to be a playoff contributor. Garnett, PP, Allen, and Rondo all had bigger roles, but he was an important role player.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The perception amongst most NBA writers

is Skiles quit, he didn’t get fired. Rumor has it he went into pax office and claimed he couldn’t do it anymore. And if that was the case, why didn’t Boylan play them more once he took over as interim coach?

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because Boylan is a fucking idiot

I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)

by Ozzie Montana on Aug 8, 2008 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was so right on que

it was beautiful. I spit out my soda.

"If you're not going to compete, then I'll dominate you." MJ

by Rankdog on Aug 8, 2008 2:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If not Skiles, Boylan CLEARLY got fired...

...for lack of playing younger players.

by tyger1147 on Aug 8, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where is the clarity?

Boylan was fired because the team hit rock bottom and collapsed under him. Players revolted on the team and everyone played worse. Giving Tyrus 10 minutes per game more would NEVER EVER have saved his job.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 8, 2008 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cause 10 minutes is what you give to Adrian Griffin

Not a lottery pick who has to develop his game. Wanna know why everyone just resorts to per 36 numbers? Because the Bulls coaching staff has been to dense to actually give Tyrus a fair shake at the starting spot. Joe Smith 2.0 in Portland had a solid per-36 minute average his rookie season. Guess what happened when his minutes jumped by 13 this season? It isn’t rocket science. Young players show improvement with more minutes, it’s been proven over and over, yet the Bulls the past 2 seasons have been run by a pack of wild monkeys.

I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)

by Ozzie Montana on Aug 8, 2008 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, w/o reading the rest of what you wrote....

Conspiracy? No. But coaches not playing youngsters in favor of veterans is pretty damn common. Hell, Maurice Cheeks needed an explicit directive from his GM Eddie Stefanski to play Thaddeus Young. To think this doesn’t happen is pretty ignorant.

by tyger1147 on Aug 8, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To think there are great players hidden on a bench for 3 years

is ridiculous. Coaches prefer veterans because they don’t have to deal with the silly mistakes rookies make. While players like Amir Johnson might have more talent than Theo Ratliff at this time, you win more games with Ratliff. Young was benched for half a season. Powe, Johnson and other have been in the league multiple years and don’t get the minutes. It’s because they just aren’t effective in long stretched..

In the context of this orginal thread, Tyrus has had 2 years on a good, then bad Bulls team. To assume he’s at Josh Smith’s level given minutes is foolish. He’s not playing for a reason. Can he improve? Certainly, and I hope he does. But he’s not there yet. Smith is a polished version of Tyrus with room to grow still.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 8, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O'Neal, they hear your words...

by tyger1147 on Aug 8, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad you named the two players

in the last 15 years who have accomplished list. You forgot to mention the 100 players that didn’t in that time span.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 8, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya know...

...if you actually cared about getting smarter, you’d go find where this been re-hashed and shown to be true. And it’s been done by people much smarter than you and I. And if I cared, I suppose I could find it and link it.

Fact: When young players+ are good and efficient in limited minutes, when their minutes increase, for the majority of them, their efficiency stays the same or actually gets better.

+I’m sure you can at least recognize that Thomas is young, right?

by tyger1147 on Aug 8, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point was they're the same age yet

Smith is significantly better that Tyrus RIGHT NOW. That’s the point. And to say if Tyrus played Smith minutes he would equal is total production is ludicrous.

Now on to your other unresearched, foolish point. I want you to look at year by year PER for Jermaine O’Neal:
Portland: 13.7,12.7,13.6,13.3
Now Indiana
17.5,18.1,21.4,21.1,22.9,20.4,18.8,14.4

So how does this support your point? If I could find some listed PER archives I would provide some of the 100 players whose production dropped off or just never managed to earn more minutes but I’m stuck right now. Off the top of my head, do you believe Carl Landry, Amir Johnson and Paul Millsap are the future of the NBA? These are young players who posted abnormally high PERs yet they don’t see major minutes (20 or less) from their team? Should we be making room for them on the next Team USA?

by CJ Bulls on Aug 8, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

keep Josh Smith away (far away)... from this young team....please

I dont understand what the allure is, id rather over pay for Grodon.

by robingoodfellow on Aug 7, 2008 3:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If it weren't for his cancer antics

I’d take Josh Smith in a heartbeat over everyone on the Bulls roster not named Rose. But his reputation is what kills him for me.

by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

do you consider shot selection a cancer antic

or just not being that good?

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 7, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are talking about Tyrus Thomas

or Josh Smith, I’m confused….?

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hilarious(?)

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 7, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

TT actually has very good shot selection

he doesn’t shoot threes because he can’t. He shoots midrange jumpers and goes for dunks for often than not. He needs to bulk up to finish better and improve his moves on the block, but he’s smarter about which shots he takes than Josh Smith has ever been.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never had a problem with Ty's shots for the most part

and would cringe everytime an announcer said “that 10 footer is not his game!”

by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So Tyrus has solid shot selection with his 48.6 True Shooting %

But Smith is bad with his 52% true shooting %. Imagine if Smith started working with a coach to improve shot selection!!!

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

look where his shots came from

I mentioned that Tyrus needs to improve his finishing. Scotter mentioned in his Tyrus Thomas review that Tyrus finished at the rim much worse this year than he did last year, but his jumpshooting was much better. If he had just stayed at his finishing levels from last year he would have increased his TS% by a lot. But yeah, I mentioned that as a mitigating factor before, so your point is not really valid. Tyrus needs to bulk up so that he can finish through contact. I believe he will. Josh Smith on the other hand, can finish very well, but he chooses not to take those shots as often as he should and instead opts for 3 pointers that he shoots at well under 30%. That’s dumb basketball, and I don’t want to give up valuable assets for dumb basketball players that duplicate the skills of a player we haven’t seen nearly enough of because of the ineptitude of the previous coaching staff.

by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying

Tyrus is going to improve on his physical ability to finish but Smith can’t improve on his mental ability to take less threes/outside jumpers?

Seriously?

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not that bad

and Smith is not that bad of a guy. I had a conversation with him this summer while on vacation in the Bahamas and he was very polite, a family man, and very respectful to me a casual basketball fan.

His mother, wife, and daughter were with him and his mother was born in Illinois. He said he would love to come to Chicago (I was joking to him that he should try and sign and trade).

by J Theory on Aug 7, 2008 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

did you see how tall he was?

(couldn’t resist)

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 7, 2008 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

by J Theory on Aug 8, 2008 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think shot selection would be somewhat mitigated

by playing with an actual PG for once in his career. How much better could Josh Smith have looked had ATL drafted Paul instead of Marvin Williams? Just speculation but I think Smith would be getting his money today if that were the case.

His poor shot selection is acknowledged but the man did shoot 45.7% last year, his true shooting percentage rose to 52.0% (Deng had 52.8% last year), and he cut down on his 3-PTs from 2.1 in the prior year to 1.2 last year so I’d view that optimisically as progress.

by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the allure? Height, athleticism, versatility, and willingness to play offense AND defense.

So essentially he’s shown flashes of being able to do it all. He doesn’t do it all exceedingly well, but he definitely has the versatility. A few tweaks here and there, a few off-seasons with the right training, and he could be an elite player in this league. He has that kind of potential.

He’s not there yet, and maybe he does have some attitude issues. But wow—talk about upside…

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Aug 7, 2008 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought so.

They could be brothers. Only Josh Smith is the older, more successful brother.

by CJ Bulls on Aug 7, 2008 4:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

caution

Let’s all pray that TT picks up his game this year and starts running down the court, jogging is not going to cut it, :P

by J Theory on Aug 7, 2008 6:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, especially during that season opener vs. Milwaukee

I hope he beats everyone down the floor for a bunch of dunks.

by bullhockey on Aug 7, 2008 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

man that'd be perfect

I would not be surprised if the Skiles gang hands the Bulls their lunch though. And everyone cheers the disciplinarian on his way out. argh.

(realizes roster isn’t complete yet)

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 7, 2008 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If that happens I will throw up right onto the screen.

And if I was a Bulls player losing to Skiles and the Bucks I think I’d start throwing punches. Unfortunately, all of the Bulls are mild-mannered, so they’d take a beating just like perfect gentlemen. Maybe Noah would be crazy enough to start taking exception, though… ? Noc maybe? Ugh… I’m praying they fast break Skiles’ team to death and escape with a W…

by bullhockey on Aug 8, 2008 1:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

this doesn't work

because although the other team can only give up half the salary of the incoming signed and traded player, the the team that does the signing must take back the full amount. so in terms of salary alone the bulls are trading away and can only take back 5 mil from the gordon contract (assuming its 10 mil), but to the hawks he counts as an incoming salary of 10 mil and so they would have to give up 10 mil, which makes it impossible unless you add more players from the bulls’ side and work the percentages (75/125)

by kite on Aug 7, 2008 11:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs