Derrick Rose/Bulls Roster Analysis from Ridiculous Upside
Pretty interesting read, always fun to see what non-Bulls fans think of our players (poor Ben Gordon :( ). I like his take on the whole keep Ben/trade Kirk notion as well.
about 1 year ago
Ozzie Montana
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It was interesting but..
I don’t like how he claimed Rose was a combo gaurd…according to his logic you would call D. Will and CP3 combos as well…
by bosh on Aug 7, 2008 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
his analysis of Rose's game was a joke
he did it based on his college stats and Ziller’s Purity Scale. Unfortunately, anyone who actually watched Memphis knows that Rose’s PG stats were depressed because of the style of offense he ran. They would drive and either score or dish it out for a teammate to repeat the process. It’s a system that doesn’t allow for a lot of assists. He scored a lot because he gets into the paint so well and he still tallied 6.2 assists per pace adjusted 40 minutes (4.7 apg for those who hate adjusting for pace and minutes). He frequently got into the lane and had the defense collapse on him only to dish it out to an open 3 point shooter (hello, Ben Gordon). Rose will always do poorly when looking at him against other PGs if you only look at the stats. Stats provide context, but you have to have watched the games too to understand what they mean. Rose got about 5.6 assists per pace adjusted 36 (if you’re like tyger and prefer per-36 stats) in a system that depresses assist totals a lot. The kid can really pass and his handle is ridiculous. Combine that with his 56% true shooting percentage and 52% EFG% and you have a guy that’s going to be very successful as a PG, not a combo guard. I hate lazy analysis, even when it’s done with numbers and cool graphs (he had another post with Ziller’s system that led him to his wrongheaded conclusions about Rose).
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree with his analysis either but it's not the first time I've heard
that Rose is going to be more of a scoring guard/combo guard than most realize. That doesn’t mean it’s lazy analysis. The opposite extreme is that sometimes you look hard enough and dig deep enough to find what you want or expect to see but that doesn’t mean you did more due diligence or more thorough analysis. It can just mean you got to the answer you wanted to find. Sometimes the correct analysis is what is right in front of you.
Memphis’ offense seemed to go like this when I watched them: Rose looks to see if he has an opening in the lane to attack the rim. If that isn’t open, pass the ball to a teammate hanging on the perimeter. Once the ball was passed, very rarely was it passed back to Rose as the current ball handler then looked for an open shot, a lane to the rim, and if neither was there, pass the ball to the next option.
by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was their offense
it was called the DDM (dribble drive motion), it emphasizes driving and kicking and then driving again, whoever finds an opportunity to score on their drive takes the shot. It basically leads to a lot of isolation play which played to Memphis’s strengths. Even in such an offense, Rose dropped 5.6 assists per pace adjusted 36 minutes. I was probably too harsh in saying that the analysis was lazy, but I saw too many Beasley fanbois and statheads look at the numbers and deem the Bulls crazy for selecting Rose over Beasley. The numbers lie when it comes to Rose, mostly because of the style of offense they ran.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pull out all the stops!
And get Iggy over here.
Iguodala and Rose running an NBA DDM would would turn the Bulls into ESPN’s lead story every night.
Dum spiro spero! (While there is life, there’s hope!)--Leon Trotsky
by alec on Aug 7, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
featuring Jay Mariotti.
management sez: recommend fanposts/fanshots/comments! Click 'reply' when replying to a comment! Flag jerkfaces!
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Aug 7, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like per-36 in the NBA cuz it's pretty close for "most" full-time starters.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it for that reason as well, but both are valid
so long as you are compare players against other players using the same measures. But I do like the intuitive appeal of per-36, and suspect that’s why someone went to the hassle of calculating and designating per-36 numbers (and why B-R probably uses them).
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. That as long as you're doing it the same across the comparisons...
...they’re both valid. I just like per-36 because if someone tells me what Tyrus Thomas or Joakim Noah would be in per-36, and I, having been inundated w/ only per-game stats, can have an idea of how that compares to others across the league—w/o looking at their per-36.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think generally people confuse scoring PGs with combo guards
You can still do 19 and 9 and be a pure PG. You can still be the leading scorer on your team and be a pure PG. It doesn’t automatically mean you’re Stephon Marbury.
by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, that's the author's biggest problem
he seems to think that if you can’t score that it’s some sort of better fit at the PG position in terms of purity. Duhon = pure point by virtue of the fact that all he can do is handle the ball and not turn it over and make pretty solid passes. But that’s just not the case not what teams should want out of their PGs in today’s NBA. PGs that matter (CP3, Deron, Nash and Tony Parker, to a lesser extent, etc.) have the ability to distribute incredibly well, and at the same time, can go nova and score 30 points any given game. That’s the kind of player Rose can be, that’s kind of player we need him to be.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A back of the envelope "Pure" gauge I use
is looking at the APG divided by the FGA per game. Under this, for last season I show:
Rose 43.12
Augustin 40.00
Westbrook 42.89
Augustin’s 2007 was better, where put up a 68.37.
Compare this to 2008 NBA seasons by:
Paul 72.05
Williams 77.21
Nash 93.28
Kidd 101.89
This calcuation could very well be meaningless, and if so, I’m sure someone will tell me.
by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
compare it to the college seasons of those players
and I’d be more interested. College ball’s a different game, so it’d be interesting to see how those guys did in more similar circumstances. I feel as though assists probably go up in the NBA because you have more guys capable of making open shots and finishing good passes than in college.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I’ll look at college stats tonight but realize college/NBA aren’t comparable for the reasons you mentioned in addition to more minutes, tailored offenses, etc.
by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it shows
the inconsistency in how no one seems to dispute that Augustin is a pure PG while some question Rose.
by messwiththebull on Aug 7, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's because Rose can score a lot better than Augustin
and he can dunk. Plus, Augustin looks more like Nash out there than Rose does, so people fall into thinking he’s the archetypical “pure point” when in fact, he’s not. He’s just a short guy that can shoot really well and get most anywhere he wants on the floor.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should have realized there is already a Pure Point Guard metric
Pure Point Rating = 100 x (League Pace / Team Pace) x ([(Assists x 2/3) – Turnovers] / Minutes)
DraftExpress has the PPRs, APG/FGA ratios and more for both NBA and NCAA time under their Efficiency Stats section. Derrick Rose falls noticably short of guys like Chris Paul and Deron Williams (and Conley, Augustin, etc.) when they were in college. In fact, Rose’s PPR is pretty damn low.
Chris Paul: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Chris-Paul-14/stats/
Deron Williams: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Deron-Williams-72/stats/
Raymond Felton: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Raymond-Felton-5/stats/
Kyle Lowry: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kyle-Lowry-608/stats/
Mike Conley: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Mike-Conley-Jr-1176/stats/
Derrick Rose: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Rose-1068/stats/
DJ Augustin: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/D.J.-Augustin-1181/stats/
by messwiththebull on Aug 8, 2008 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
his numbers were deflated
because of the system. looking at his stats, in this case, is misleading. he didn’t register assists because of the iso-nature of the offense, but he scored 17.55 points per pace adjusted 36 and dropped 5.58 assists per pace adjusted 36. Those are nice numbers. He did turn the ball over much more than I would have liked to have seen out of an elite PG which I believe accounts for his low PPR. However, TOs are one of the easiest things to correct and he was still a freshman. His handle is strong and I’d also suspect he turned the ball over a lot by getting caught in the air doing his jump pass that he liked so much to use when kicking it out to shooters from the lane. If he minimizes those kinds of mistakes, he’ll be fine.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 8, 2008 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, actually, you can't be "pure", the way it's being defined.
You’d be a great guard that can score and pass. Part of statistically analyzing the “pure” part of it was that people said
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
the term “pure point” needs to be put to rest. In my opinion a point gaurd is much more effective if he is a scoring threat. This is why I believe people like D Will and CP3 are having so much sucess. They have all the necessary skills of a “traditional” point but also have the ability to put the ball in the hoop. A combo gaurd, on the other hand, does not have the traditional point gaurd skills. I think future star point gaurds will essentially be combo gaurds with the addition of traditional pg skills. Rose fits that bill perfectly.
by bosh on Aug 7, 2008 2:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So Rose is good enough to play the 2, but the Bulls need him most at the point
What’s sad is he may be the best 2 on the team right now as well as the best 1.
by RogersPark Kris on Aug 7, 2008 2:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He's definitely NOT the best shooting guard on the team right now.
That’s ridiculous and, excuse me to those semantic purists, wrong.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This would be true if...
Derrick Rose had a smooth jumper. That, however, is not the case. BG still wins.
by bosh on Aug 7, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a follow up note:
a PG’s ability to score is a weapon. It forces the D to respect them and slide off of guys and creates space and passing lanes. That’s what makes CP3 so deadly, teams have to collapse on him when he gets into the lane and that creates a myriad of opportunities for his teammates to get open looks. Rose is so explosive athletically and such a good scorer / finisher that teams will be forced to respect him when he blows by his man (his first step is so good, this seems likely to happen a lot) and gets into the lane. This will create passing lanes and alley-oop opportunities (Derrick meet Tyrus, your next best friend).
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I almost put that comment on the Rid. Ups. post.
Rose’s greatest strength right now is collapsing the defense. That draws both perimeter defenders, which allows him to kick it to a 3-pt shooter, and interior defenders, which allows for alley-oops and/or easy dunks.
This is why I want Gordon to stay so much: if he stays, this team is PERFECTLY suited for Derrick Rose’s best abilities right now. It would be the best opportunity for him to succeed. If only Deng could shoot the 3-pter 2-3 times per game at a 37/38% clip, it’d be better.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I expect
to see Deng shoot more 3s this season. He shot a decent amount upon entering the league but I remember reading he gave them up to focus on his mid range jumper. It also didn’t help when the skiles camp tried to get him to develop a post game. This could have hindered his progress from behind the arc…
by bosh on Aug 7, 2008 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
I think he will, too. I expect the Bulls to realize what Rose’s greatest strengths are (it’s not like what I typed is anything new), and I do expect Deng to get up two or three a game from beyond the arc. I just hope he can get at least 35%-that’s my minimum expectation if he’s shooting that much.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, excuse the small sample size, but he did shoot 36% from 3 this year.
granted it was on just 22 attempts, but that shows atleast some signs of improvement. If he can shoot more of those 3 pointers at a 36% clip, he easily becomes a 20 points per 36 minute scorer (I refuse to say 20 ppg, just out of spite :-P). He already scores 18.1 points per 36 minutes, change 2 of his midrange makes a game to 3 point makes and bang there’s 20 points right there.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I knew it was acceptable, but I didn't even look it up.
I knew it was the small sample, and he was pretty poor the three years previous. As I said, if he gets more than 150 3FGA this year, he better be making them at 35%—or at least close to it and something that shows he can still improve.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
Deng could hit 35% and gordon stays around 40% It would be great. What worries me is that we shoot to many jumpers as it is, so I don’t want deng to be complacent with the 3. I’d prefer to see him put on the floor and drive to the basket. I think that is part of the reason he stopped shooting them in the first place.
by bosh on Aug 7, 2008 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deng's already a jumpshooter/slasher.
All you really need to do is have two of his 18-22 ft jumpshots end up behind the arc. He still slashes to the basket. Plus, you’ll have Rose driving to the hoop instead of Hinrich standing behind the arc. And hopefully, Noah and Thomas stay near the basket if they’re not running high-post or pick-and-roll plays.
by tyger1147 on Aug 7, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but it would be nice
if he picked his spots like he did this year and still managed to shoot 36% from 3. Hopefully with Rose breaking down defenses he’ll have more looks that he’ll find palatable from deep and he’ll be able to increase his number of 3s without sacrificing his efficiency. One thing that drives me crazy about Deng, as much as I love his jumpshot is that so many times he’s shooting it from a step inside the three point line. If he can increase his range by a step and make some of those baseline long mid-range J’s into corner threes (by being one step further back on the court) that should help him score more and would cause teams to close out on him more. The long two point J is statistically the worst shot in basketball, so teams are going to let you take it, even if you’re prolific at it like Deng is. It’s not a high percentage shot and even if it goes in it’s only two points, so teams aren’t going to scramble as hard to close out on it. But if you make them pay the penalty of giving up the extra point, by extending your range, then you force them to close out and create opportunities to pump fake and take your man off the dribble for a slash to the bucket or a slash into the lane for a pass to an open teammate. The 3 point shot would do wonders for Deng’s game and it’s just one measly step back from his comfort zone.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point...
As long as he stays selective and replaces a couple 18-22 footers with 3’s I would have no problem with it.However, he will have to change his shot quite a bit though even if it is just a few feet back. NBA 3’s require a lot more leg than do 18-20 footers. I’m not saying it can’t be done it will just take some practice and focus.
by bosh on Aug 7, 2008 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he basically needs to jump higher on his release (hence your more leg comment)
he could also release the ball higher which would give it a bit more arc and allow him to shoot the three without sacrificing his form very much. But yeah, it’s going to take a lot of repetition and practice, but I trust Deng’s ability to master the 3 because he so completely mastered the midrange to long distance two shot so quickly.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 7, 2008 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rose comparison
i’ve heard the comparisons to chris paul and deron williams but i don’t think that those guys are very similar to rose’s playing style. chris paul is really quick, but he’s definitely not a very strong player. deron williams has a size and strength advantage against point guards, but he doesn’t have the quickness of rose. i think baron davis is probably a better comparison than those guys. am i wrong in thinking so? is there anyone that i’m missing that’s more similar to rose?
p.s. tony parker wouldn’t be tony parker without tim duncan, so i hope rose will be better than parker
p.p.s. i’m not saying rose is anywhere near as good as those guys right now, but hopefully in the future he will be.
by kite on Aug 8, 2008 2:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've heard several people make the B-Diddy comparison
and it’s certainly not a bad one. they are both big, strong, quick PGs with incredible handles and dunking / finishing ability. I think Derrick actually shoots the ball a little better on his jumper than Baron does (when Baron first entered the league he shot under 25% from behind the arc and as a freshman at UCLA only shot 30.8% to Rose’s 33.7%). Rose rebounds the ball slightly better I think and might be stronger than Baron. Baron had issues with his weight that stemmed from his genetic predisposition to get fat. Derrick on the other hand checked in to Pre-Draft camp with a 4.6% Body Fat after spending the year eating Gummy Bears. I think the comparison of Derrick as B-Diddy 2.0 is fair. I just think he’ll be even better than Baron (and hopefully healthier), which would be scary because when Baron’s healthy and doesn’t have his head in the clouds, he might be the most dangerous weapon at the PG slot in the league. His athleticism is out of this world, and Rose’s is right there (maybe better). Per minute, as a freshman, Baron turned the ball even more than Derrick (though not by a whole lot, it was pretty close). Baron’s TOs were 3.57 per 36 minutes and Derrick’s were 3.33 per 36 minutes. Baron registered slightly more assists per minute (5.77 per 36 vs. 5.58 per 36 for Rose). Unfortunately those numbers are unadjusted for pace because I couldn’t find pace adjusted for Baron’s seasons at UCLA. More evidence that Derrick’s shooting is probably better than Baron’s at the same time in their careers (besides the 3% difference in 3pt ) is that Baron shot 67.6 % from the FT line, whereas Derrick shot 71.2. Derrick also shot better on 3s while shooting many more threes than Baron (78 on the year for Baron vs. 104 for Derrick). Unfortunately Baron almost doubled the number of steals Derrick was able to rack up per minute – Baron: 2.76 steals per 36 vs. 1.44 per 36 for Rose. The optimist in me says that Baron was gambling more on defense and that Derrick doesn’t gamble and locks down his man more, but the cynic / realist in me says that Derrick might not have the same kind of instincts for picking his opponents that Baron had. However, if that is the only quibble I can come up with in this comparison and the rest of the numbers point to Derrick as the new, improved version of Baron Davis without the weight / health issues, then the future is very, very bright indeed.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 8, 2008 8:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Rose will end up better than B Diddy
but I think highly of B Diddy. The guy is an MVP candidate if healthy. Just a terrific game changing player.
by messwiththebull on Aug 8, 2008 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that's what I was trying to show
production-wise they were very similar in their freshman years, but based on Rose’s incredible measurables and the fact that he shoots it better than Baron did at the same age lead me to believe that he’ll be a better version of Baron, and I really really like Baron a lot. As you said, he’s an MVP-type player (he’ll never win it because he’s older now and when he was in his prime he never played full seasons, but the guy is amazing). Hopefully, Rose won’t follow in Baron’s footsteps in terms of shot selection (Baron’s is very poor many times), but other than that, I’d be thrilled in Rose turned into Baron Davis + health + a leaner body, less chunky body.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 8, 2008 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah yes,
Rose might need to grow out that facial hair to complete the comparison. the Beard is strong.
by fundamentallysound on Aug 8, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baron's UCLA highlights are still stuff of YouTube legend
That was nearly 10 freaking years ago. Baron just didn’t have the motivation to stay in shape all these years, he’ll go down as one of the players that “didn’t get it.”
Since Derrick’s biggest problem right now is that he seems to practice so much to the point of tendinitis, I think he has the right mindset. Now, if he can duplicate that kind of potential on the floor, well I can tell you there won’t be 6 different threads arguing the same points about Ben Gordon.
I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)
by Ozzie Montana on Aug 8, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i love baron
he’s my favorite non-bulls player in the nba. he just has that ability to dominate his opponent that not a lot of people have. watching him in that first round series against the mavs 2 years ago was incredible; you just knew that he wasn’t going to let his team lose those that series, and i think the mavs knew that as well after game 1. if derrick can become a similar player to baron, then wow, i don’t think i’d change a thing from the past. the wallace signing, the nocioni contract, the frustrating anti-coaching of jim b*&^$, and even having larry hughes and suffering through a disappointing 33-win season will all be worth it if rose is the more athletic and more fit version of baron davis.
by kite on Aug 8, 2008 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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