A plan for paying the men their money, avoiding the luxury tax, and competing for free agents in 2009
I've had mixed feelings on re-signing Gordon to a big deal, but the Monta Ellis deal and the fact that they are very comparable players in terms of value (even though I initially doubted this) has convinced me that Ben needs to get paid. The question is, how much? Well, if we go based on the Monta Ellis model, about 6 years $66 million (maybe a little less). So how much do we need to pay him starting this year based on those figures? For 6 years $66 million, we'd need to start him out at $8.7 million this year- increasing $.9135 million every year (or 10.5% of $8.7mil). Luol Deng is reportedly seeking a deal worth $75 million over 6 years. In order to pay Deng his money we'd need to start him out at $9.9 million this year - increasing about $1.04 mil per year to reach about $15.1 mil on the final year of his deal. So for this year's luxury tax number the Bulls would be adding 8.7+9.9 = $18.6 million.
Right now the luxury tax threshold is $71.15 million. According to Sham , the Bulls have about $49.12 million on the payroll for next year and that's before adding the $4.83 million for Derrick Rose's contract. So all totalled the Bulls have about $53.95 on the payroll (assuming Shannon Brown isn't back this year, which he shouldn't be). So that leaves the Bulls at about $17.2 million for the Bulls to work underneath for the luxury tax. As I showed above, to pay the two best players on the Bulls what they're worth we need to spend $18.6 million. This would put them about $1.4 million over the luxury tax, which would be a problem for this ownership group, as they've expressed several times. The Bulls would have the whole year, though, to get themselves under the tax. Here's the way that I propose they do it.
Trade Hinrich and Hughes (expiring in 2010) to the Nuggets for Allen Iverson. This does a couple of things, it consolidates two backcourt players into one, better player, it shaves about $1.987 million of the Bulls total salary for the year. Also, it gives the Bulls a huge amount of flexibility in the summer of 2009 to pursue a big name free agent. Drew Gooden's contract will also be coming off the books, so that's about $28 million in cap space in a summer when most of the teams in the NBA are going to be saving for 2010. The names aren't as flashy as the 2010 crowd, but there is certainly value to be had. It also gives the Bulls the option to get players on teams that need to cut salary by allowing them to trade for more than they send out. The reason the Nuggets would do this trade is it allows them to be a player in that 2010 FA class (via Hughes's big expiring deal) and gives them a nice defensive minded PG who can play with Melo in Hinrich and gives them something of value for Iverson before he leaves. The downside for the Bulls is that Iverson is old, dominates the ball and scores inefficiently. Oh, and he's tiny which is bad for BG, Rose. However, this is about the best the Bulls can do for these two guys in my view (they might be able to swindle a first round pick out of it too, maybe). The most important thing though is it allows the Bulls to resign Deng and Gordon while keeping them happy, consolidates some talent and allows the Bulls to push (potentially) into the playoffs, while still developing the young guys and gives them loads of flexibility in the future which should be their focus anyway. This team is not competing with elite teams next year. Not even close, so we should be focused on 2009 and beyond.
Update: Matt deftly pointed out in initial comments that this would hurt Rose's development (which I mentioned above), AI would be unhappy here, and having AI around would be difficult for Ben to swallow being that they perform a similar role. This led me to try and find other ways to dump Hughes and Hinrich in one deal for an expiring, and I was unsuccessful. I really can't find a team who would want or need Hinrich at this point (despite rumors that plenty of teams are interested) and Hughes is not much of a trading chip until closer to 2010 (which is really the reason WE should just keep him and only let him play like 10-15 minutes a game). So my alternative solution to paying the guys their money and avoiding the luxury tax is this: hope these guys are reasonable and offer them good solid deals (even better than what we offered last year, despite their regression). The Bulls acknowledged last year's deals were lower than market value but offered security. Well, now the Bulls need the security of having their guys back and can't afford to lowball them. Offer BG 6 years $62 million (8.185 this year) and Deng 6 years almost $70 million (just a hair under to make the numbers work under the luxury tax). BG and Deng both get a little more than they were offered per year last year, plus an extra year of security. No one walks away humiliated at being screwed into a lowball offer and the Bulls remain below the luxury tax. Everyone should be happy.
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the way it would effect rose is a concern
plus I don’t know how Gordon would react (even when signed) to seeing a version of him self come aboard. And I’m not sure how Iverson plays out the year knowing he’s not in the plans of the team.
And I don’t think Denver does that deal, because it puts THEM further in the luxury tax.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Jul 25, 2008 11:19 AM CDT
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true, but I thought they snuck out from under the luxury tax
by dealing Camby for thin air. I could be wrong though.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 11:24 AM CDT
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ah, if JR Smith takes the QO (likely since no one else is calling him) and Diawara takes the QO
they are right back in luxury tax hell. Point taken. If JR signs elsewhere, I think this deal could work as they would be enough under the luxury tax to take on the extra 2 mil.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 11:33 AM CDT
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I believe they're right up against it still
and this would be adding $2m. They still have to decide what to do with JR Smith.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Jul 25, 2008 11:34 AM CDT
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if Sports2's page is correct
they are under unless JR and Diawara take their QO’s which seems somewhat likely. JR hasn’t gotten any calls according to some article I read on RealGM that I’m too lazy to look for.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 11:37 AM CDT
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come now
even the biggest Gordon fan can’t say that Iverson is a veteran version of him.
by JSlakov on
Jul 25, 2008 11:28 AM CDT
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I think he just meant in the sense that they are high volume shooters and scorers that
are undersized for the 2 spot.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 11:29 AM CDT
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ding
Not sure why that’s so outlandish, Slakov
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Jul 25, 2008 11:35 AM CDT
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maybe
Gordon would be excited to play with a future Hall of Famer and the third best scorer all time? I’m just saying its simplifying things there. Not that I think this would ever happen, but I’d be more concerned about Rose’s development than Gordon coming off the bench for another year.
by JSlakov on
Jul 25, 2008 11:45 AM CDT
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me too.
I even listed it first!
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Jul 25, 2008 12:07 PM CDT
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Also, the benefit of this deal for the Nuggets after Hughes expires
is that Hinrich’s deflating contract makes them a little more flexible in the future so they don’t get caught like this again.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 11:35 AM CDT
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Also, the benefit of this deal for the Nuggets after Hughes expires
is that Hinrich’s deflating contract makes them a little more flexible in the future so they don’t get caught like this again.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 11:35 AM CDT
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did some posts
disappear on this thread?
by JSlakov on
Jul 25, 2008 11:46 AM CDT
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yeah I posted something twice and felt great shame.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Jul 25, 2008 12:08 PM CDT
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Decent 2009 free agents
Restricted:
Marvin Williams
Leon Powe
Raymond Felton
Jason Maxiell
Ramon Sessions
Rashad McCants
David Lee
Martell Webster
Paul Millsap
Unrestricted:
Anderson Varejao
Gerald Green
Jason Kidd
Allen Iverson
Richard Hamilton (ETO)
Kobe Bryant (ETO)
Rasheed Wallace
Shawn Marion
Lamar Odom
Chris Wilcox
Hedo Turkoglu (ETO)
Andre Miller
Jermaine O’Neal
Carlos Boozer (Player Option)
Mehmet Okur (ETO)
Of those with ETO’s and Player Options, I see Boozer, Okur, and Turkoglu opting out, so that gives us a few more options.
Even still, there’s not much there besides Boozer. Rasheed Wallace will be nearly 35 when the 2009 season starts. Marion, Odom, Jermaine, and Okur aren’t reliable inside scorers. And while Powe, Wilcox, Gerald Green, and Marvin Williams still have some upside, will any of them get us to a championship?
Maybe you can see a Bulls championship hidden somewhere in those names, but I just don’t see it unless we land the lone blue-chipper in Boozer. And why follow a plan that can’t take you to your goal?
by YaoPau on
Jul 25, 2008 11:48 AM CDT
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Odom
Would be a great option too, especially if we got him for the full MLE for 3-4 years…
I’d like Lamar over Turkoglu actually because of Lamar’s versatility and the fact that Hedo’s so far a 1 season wonder (a very good 1 season wonder) but is playing with Howard and Lewis to boot.
I’d love to see Boozer first of those unrestricted, but Odom’s a guy I’d like on our team. He’s much better than his rep.
by majoyenrac on
Jul 25, 2008 11:59 AM CDT
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I mean, I'd take any of those guys for the full MLE...
but it’s not gonna happen. Odom’s making $14.5 mil this year, he’s not going to accept a 3 year, $18 mil MLE offer.
by YaoPau on
Jul 25, 2008 12:03 PM CDT
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Yeah
Well he’d be 30….
I guess I was thinking the MLE would be closer to $6.5-7M, 4 year $28M would be nice for him.
Lamar’s not an all star, and ain’t getting his old contract again…..but he’s damn good near all star/all star caliber when healthy and confident.
by majoyenrac on
Jul 25, 2008 12:10 PM CDT
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which is why he's still getting more than the MLE even if it isn't quite 14.5 million a year
he’s not getting any less than 10 million a year. He’s too talented and tall not to make that kind of money.
by fundamentallysound on
Jul 25, 2008 12:13 PM CDT
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We'll see
A lot of competition in 2010:
Horford, Nowitski, Pierce, James, Prince, Bryant, Gasol, Ming, Wade, Chandler, Butler, Bosh, Durant, Parker, Oden, Stoudemire, etc etc…...and we don’t even know what will happen with guys like Wright, and other young guns…
I think there will be many steals to be had of guys in the Odom-Prince-Battier-Dunleavy-Jefferson, etc group…...
I think plenty of these guys will take what they can get, and much of the big money will go to the guys above…..
by majoyenrac on
Jul 25, 2008 2:25 PM CDT
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This I think
Is really one of the soon to be nice things of all those high schoolers leaving college….that it makes for a summer like 2010….
by majoyenrac on
Jul 25, 2008 2:25 PM CDT
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Darn
I got the year’s mixed up…..Odom’s 2009, still a very nice class (Boozer, Okur, Ginobli, Roy, Aldridge, T2, Gay, Rip, maybe even Thabo and a bunch of young question marks…..
Not quite as powerful as I thought though, but still there’s only so much cahs, and teams that might have room to spend might defer a year before that year above.
by majoyenrac on
Jul 25, 2008 2:29 PM CDT
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Weirdly enough,
I wouldn’t mind the Iverson/Rose backcourt. Could be tiny but good. Too bad Rose isn’t the legit 6’4 people said he was.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
by MPG on
Jul 25, 2008 11:50 AM CDT
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That backcourt would get to the line a lot...
Which, in my opinion, is the most reliable form of play-off scoring.
Not that I think this is a great plan, but that’s a pretty decent benefit.
by kidronmusic on
Jul 25, 2008 1:14 PM CDT
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And how about Odom???
Why donĀ“t we trade Nocioni and Hinrich for Odom plus a filler (I’m thinking a sign ‘n trade with K. Brown)... He could be helpful and his contract also expires this year. If we unload Gooden and Odom we would be able to get some salary cap flexibilily…
by Agusnico on
Jul 25, 2008 6:52 PM CDT
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MLE?
I read somewhere they were trying to aquire him….
Anyway, the filler could be anyone…
by Agusnico on
Jul 25, 2008 9:50 PM CDT
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press reply
but the point is you can’t sign and trade someone else’s free agent.
by Jaina on
Jul 25, 2008 10:30 PM CDT
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