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Monta Ellis gets 6/$66m from Warriors

Somewhere, Ben Gordon (adjust Ellis' numbers for Nellieball) is peeved.

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::clears throat::

Ellis had no other offers! He’s never been a superstar, a star, or an all-star!!!!

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 10:12 PM CDT   0 recs

He's also better

three years younger, coming off a career year, and has posted a PER than Ben Gordon ever has. He’s also a much better ballhandler and can masquerade as PG if necessary better than BG can. He’s better than BG and if anything, this tells me BG is a $10m/year player at best.

by messwiththebull on Jul 25, 2008 10:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Gordon had an 18.2 PER and Ellis had a 19.0 PER.

That’s a wash. PER is a blunt instrument. Going to 1 decimal place is just for show. There’s not a meaningful difference between PERs within a point or two of each other.

by Scotter on Jul 25, 2008 10:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok

I’m not saying Monta is leagues better than BG, but that he is better, he’s younger, and his deal hopefully will set a ceiling on what the BG camp is asking for. I don’t think that will be the case but I’m optimistic his deal can be resolved over the next two weeks as a result of the Ellis signing.

by messwiththebull on Jul 25, 2008 12:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And I wonder how much better he is

They’re essentially the same. We’ll see if Ellis can play PG…Nelson didn’t think so until the issue was forced with Baron Davis leaving.

I bet if you had Gordon in that system with guys like Davis, Jackson, Harrington, etc…all that athleticism, a great PG, a fabulous system, a bunch of gunners and scorers that Gordon’s PER would improve drastically. PER has a heavier weight on offensive numbers, and when you have that many offensive players to take the pressure off, shots go in easier and guys are left more open.

Gordon’s constantly playing with 2-3 guys on him….

by majoyenrac on Jul 25, 2008 12:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i watched this kid play probably 65 times last year

and can tell you that he eats turds like Ben Gordon for breakfast.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 10:24 PM CDT   0 recs

maybe I should've said adjust Gordon for Skilesball?

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 10:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah no doubt

seriously though that is nicely done by Mully,

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 10:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Any way you slice it

Monta > BG

Check out his FG% and TS% from last year. He was absurdly good from everywhere but 3-point land.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

use Gordon's best year then

and Gordon carries an awful offense with the guy guarding Ben Wallace on his back. Ellis has plenty of more opportunities for easy baskets. If Gordon could play in that system and add his 3-point shooting, he’d be a statistical bonanza

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 10:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

BG has the edge in 3's

that’s it.

I broke them down statistically in another thread.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 10:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Monta is a much better ball-handler

and a legitimate slasher. He’s also a better rebounder as a combo guard than BG is.

Sure, BG kills him from 3, but I’m pretty sure almost any non-biased NBA fan would choose Monta over BG when it comes down to it.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

stats

he shot like 75% from the field in February

also: 417 free throws attempted to 293 for BG in 07-08

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 10:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The fact that he's a starting SG who shot 53% from the field is just absurd

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that's your big breakdown?

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 11:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah, i'm not really a stats guy

but it’s all right there to see.

and Monte sure as fuck isn’t gonna dribble the ball off his foot with the game on the line.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 11:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

because Baron Davis had the ball?

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 11:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

touche

but my point stands man.

with Monte + Magette as the starting back court, the Dubs will go to the line more than any other team.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 11:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ehh

Monta doesn’t get to the line all that much. 4.9 FTA/36 isn’t much better than Gordon (4.6).

The difference between Monta and Ben in my opinion is Monta’s shown that he’s capable of guarding two guards. I know Baron switched at times against the really big twos, but from the games I saw Monta did well guarding his own position. His 82games numbers (source and source) seem to back it up.

The Bulls gave up 8.5 more points per 100 possessions when Gordon was on the floor, while the Warriors gave up 1.8 less points per 100 with Ellis on the floor. To me, that makes Ellis capable of playing 40mpg, while with Gordon you have to pick your spots to get him playing time.

by YaoPau on Jul 25, 2008 1:15 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You can't legitmately reference

the 8.5 points per 100 possessions as a valid representation of Gordon’s defensive value.

by Scotter on Jul 25, 2008 9:46 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

because it's an estimate?

just curious if that’s the reason or you have another reason why it’s not legitimate. I’m always interested to hear your opinion on these statistical matters.

by fundamentallysound on Jul 25, 2008 9:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Because it's outlier when compared to his other three

seasons. For his career including last season, the team is only 3.1 points worse on defense with Gordon on the floor per 100 possessions. In his 1st three seasons, he was never worse than 3.5 points per 100 possessions. When Gordon’s last season is put in context, it’s extremely unlikely that 8.5 points is anywhere close to accurately reflecting Gordon’s defensive contribution.

by Scotter on Jul 25, 2008 10:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

gotcha

but what of Monta’s consistently making team better on the defensive end? If I’m not mistaken since he’s been in the league his team has better on D when he’s on the floor every year and Gordon’s team (regardless of magnitude) has always been worse defensively with him on the floor. I guess the counter to that is he had more capable backups for D than Monta did. It’s still worth noting though.

by fundamentallysound on Jul 25, 2008 11:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If those numbers are pace-adjusted, which I don't think they are, then they're useful.

And there is something to Matt’s point about the different coaching systems. I think the comparison is closer than people here are making out. I’m not a blind Ben champion either.

by arjoseph on Jul 25, 2008 9:21 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Draft Express has the pace adjusted per 40 minute numbers for everyone

they are much more comparable than I first thought. However, Monta has that whole ‘budding star’ thing going for him whereas Gordon being two years older and off of a down year doesn’t have the same shine on him. Still 6 years 60 mil for Gordon would be great (starting at 8 million for this year), as discussed further down in this thread.

by fundamentallysound on Jul 25, 2008 9:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe they're at the very elast comperable

and I think that the fact that we see Ben Gordon all the time, and (mostly) only see Monta Ellis in highlights, means you get both extremes, the ‘Ben dribbl off f00t LOL’ next to ‘budding star’ label for Ellis.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 25, 2008 9:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with that Matt

but at the same time, I think the perception around the League is that Monta is better as well. That’s the sense I get from listening to the play by play guys on national broadcasts (admittedly not the best way to judge these things) and from reading what people think about both these guys. I also think age is probably a significant factor in this perception. Ben is two and a half years older than Monta.

by fundamentallysound on Jul 25, 2008 9:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Isn't part of the BG Phenomenon

the fact that teams “solved” him after he had those two incredible years as a rookie and a 2nd year? And yeah, I’m not a BG apologist, as I’ve leveled my share of criticism on him, but the fact that the team had no other offense to occupy the defense made him that much easier to “solve”. And let’s remember, the reason he was such a priority for defenses was the number of clutch/last second/game winning shots he hit during those first two years. And a lot of those clutch ones were when the Bulls were way down in the 3rd/4th quarter and he was the one shooting them back into the game.

Monte’s had a great run of a couple of better years than Gordon, but he would have also ended up being “solved” by defenses if he was the only option on Golden State. Give GS a couple of key injuries, and you’re asking Ellis to carry that offense, in which case he gets exposed.

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Jul 25, 2008 9:37 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

erm, no. His third year was actually his most successful.

No one “solved” him. He torched people his third year. He regressed this year, but I don’t think it was a matter of being solved. He just didn’t play as well, no one did. You can take that as a sign that he’s plateauing or that he just had an off year. I’ve been, unfortunately, schizophrenically bouncing between the two positions (don’t call me a flip-flopper, haha).

by fundamentallysound on Jul 25, 2008 9:48 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So you're saying that

teams didn’t find BG’s more predictable this year than in past years, and they didn’t adjust accordingly by slapping a double team/trap on him way out on the perimeter?

As for stats, your probably right, it probably was only this past season that was a bad season, and not the past 2 seasons…

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Jul 25, 2008 11:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

we'll have to see if Boomdizzlewood's (or whatever his new name is) departure

hurts Monte’s numbers…but I doubt it, he goes to the hole with such authority that the only thing you gotta worry about is injuries.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 10:32 PM CDT   0 recs

In many ways, he's like a smaller D-Wade

Hopefully he doesn’t go the D-Wade route injury-wise, though.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed

i think he’s a better finisher though.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.

-- Scottie Pippen

by Orlando Woolridge on Jul 24, 2008 11:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Man

that’s quite a claim.

by YaoPau on Jul 25, 2008 1:16 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

True

But Wade is better at taking the contact and finishing.

I like Monta. Just please don’t ever let him leave Nellieball. The only other place I’d want to see him is with D’Antoni.

by NBA Observer on Jul 25, 2008 8:05 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

TINY monta ellis?

being compared to D. Wade is halarious. lol i’m still laughing.

by AFireInside661 on Jul 25, 2008 3:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

but then again

i’m baised because living on the west-coast i watch way too many warriors games. monta just makes those crazy circus shots that trip me out. he’s a scrappy mofo- in a good way with nice handles, i just don’t think he’s clutch-proven like d. wade.

by AFireInside661 on Jul 25, 2008 4:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

His name is

Black Santa, and it’s an awesome nickname with Davis’s beard and former weight issues.

by majoyenrac on Jul 25, 2008 12:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Monta > Gordon

Monta can actually get to the rim and finish, he can handle the ball a lot better than Ben, turns it over less and is younger by 2 years. Also, in his contract year he played out of his mind whereas Gordon regressed (I know everyone did, but still the point remains). Oh and Ellis is capable of doing the combo-guard thing, Ben can’t. He tries to, but he either dribbles off his leg / foot or he falls down.

by fundamentallysound on Jul 24, 2008 10:43 PM CDT   1 recs

Yep.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that's it

I’m leaving this thread.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 10:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I take it you haven't watched much Monta lately, eh?

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And really

you’re just going to leave? That’s a little over the top, isn’t it? It’s not like we’re sitting here saying that Larry Hughes is better than BG or something.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Matt...

surely you have to agree with the assessment that Monta is better than BG.

by bullsfaninbigapple on Jul 25, 2008 8:33 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And this thread title is lame IMO

It should be more like…

“Ellis gets $66 mil over 6 years…further proving that BG turning down 5/50 was incredibly stupid!”

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 10:44 PM CDT   0 recs

But he's so tiny!

How does he play defense?

by tyger1147 on Jul 24, 2008 11:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ba doom pssh

You’re joking right?

by NBA Observer on Jul 25, 2008 8:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Monta's defense?

You don’t think it’s good?

by YaoPau on Jul 25, 2008 9:11 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

'rep' is one of the worst in the league.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 25, 2008 9:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

On/Off Stats don't support this

GSW allow more points when he’s off the court than on the court the last two years. You can’t say the same for Gordon.

by CJ Bulls on Jul 25, 2008 9:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

team defense

gordon was playing on one of the best defensive teams in the league (before last year), and i dont think anyone is saying that he’s a good defender, he’s below average. however, his flaws are more evident when the other teams single him out as the one weak defender on the floor with a very good defensive team. in monta’s case, he’s playing on one of the worst defensive teams in the league, with terrible defenders all around, so his below average defense looks good in comparison. he’s got the same issues as gordon, being an undersized shooting guard who cant play point guard too well. i think they’re similar defenders who are just in different situations. (i dont claim to know anything about monta, as i admittedly dont watch him play much, if at all; this is just my opinion, and i might be wrong)

by kite on Jul 26, 2008 2:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Watch more Monta before assessing based on numbers

Statistical analysis is only effective when combined with personal observations. There should be no question about ball handling and defense between the two if you watch enough of Monta play. NBA League Pass is a good option.

An immediate reference is any Pistons series. Ben can’t guard Rip, Ben can’t guard Chauncey. Bulls lose the series.

by messwiththebull on Jul 26, 2008 8:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Despite the fact

that the Bulls defeat the Pistons?

I used to say the same thing and used the Pistons as the example. But overtime you will learn that BG isn’t the issue against the Pistons. The Bulls can and have defeated the Pistons. BG wasn’t and isn’t the issue.

It was rebounding.

by NBA Observer on Jul 26, 2008 10:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

To clarify, when I say "series"

I was referring to the Playoffs. Frankly I don’t care much about the regular season series between the two teams. In the playoffs, BG couldn’t guard Rip, and Chauncey posted him up like child’s play (as easy as Tayshaun was posting up Deng). . It was just an absolute destruction and the Pistons clearly keyed in on Gordon. I’d have to say from what I’ve seen of Monta he is no worse a defender than Gordon when it comes to guarding 2s, but that he is better than Gordon when it comes to guarding 1s.

It was the playoffs.

by messwiththebull on Jul 26, 2008 1:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So Chauncey couldn't just post up Monta too?

Even though he’s probably weaker than Ben?

Monta is probably the (slightly) better player, but this Pistons reference doesn’t do anything to support that.

by potato0328 on Jul 27, 2008 1:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe he wouldn't get the chance to

because I think Monta would do a better job with Rip than BG could. This is all speculation.

by messwiththebull on Jul 27, 2008 10:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That was my observations as well

BG is a good but flawed player. Another sickening example was the trend in every Nets game I caught. The Bulls run up a big lead, Kidd and Carter take the game back whenever they’re ready. The NBA allows plenty of opportunity for decent players to have a run while the other team’s cruising. BG can be really effective in lower intensity games because he is really good at filling it up, but when his D and handles get challenged hard, they become gamebreakers. When the real action starts, the liabilities get exposed. Hell, I could guard Kobe as long as he’s pacing himself and letting his teammates participate, but he’d put up 150 per 36 when he wanted to.
The question isn’t BG>ME or vice versa; it’s is BG worth more to the Bulls than ME is to GS. And there’s really only one opinion in play right now, Reinsdorf’s.

by California Al on Jul 27, 2008 9:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok how about PER allowed by position to eliminate a team bias.

Both Gordon and Ellis played the bulk of their minutes at shooting guard. Their SG to PG minutes were roughly 4/1 for Gordon and 5/1 for Ellis. Gordon allowed a 19.2 PER at SG, Monta only allowed 16.3.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07GSW4C.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0708/07CHI3C.HTM

by CJ Bulls on Jul 26, 2008 9:52 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Misleading

If you look at 82 games’ 5 man breakdowns, he’s playing most of those minutes with Baron Davis. So in those cases, 82Games calls him the “SG”, but he probably spent some of that time guarding the point.

by Sports2 on Jul 26, 2008 3:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So were just to take it at a few BABers' word that Monta is a bad defender?

When all statistical proof points to the contrary? And how is that any different from Kirk Hinrich? Whenever Ben and Kirk are on the court together, BG guards the PG despite being listed at the SG. Same applies to Duhon as well.

by CJ Bulls on Jul 26, 2008 4:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not any different

I never said it was.

But if you’re going to use that point to say Gordon is a bad defender, then the same method should be applied to Ellis.

Let’s look at it this way. We can both agree, I’d guess, that their best use is guarding PGs. And I’d also guess we could agree that despite the 82Games methodology, when they are actually measured as the PG, it’s probably accurate. Because in that case we don’t have the “they were on the court with Baron Davis or Kirk Hinrich” issue in the first place.

So let’s compare that.
Ellis as PG defensive PER: 19.6
Gordon as PG defensive PER: 19.7

That statistic tends to indicate neither of them are very good defenders.

by Sports2 on Jul 26, 2008 7:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

All statistical proof is *NOT* to the contrary

I never said we should use Gordon’s listing at SG any more than I’d use Ellis’.

If you want to avoid the problem of “who’s the player guarding”, you should really look at their defensive PERs at PG. Because both of them are usually best suited to guard PGs, when they’re actually listed at PG (as opposed to playing with a PG who will play SG on defense like Davis or Hinrich), it’s safer assumption that the defensive PER is actually capturing their efforts.

So what are their defensive PERs as PGs?
Gordon 19.7
Ellis 19.6

Lower numbers are good, by the way, so this tells us
1. They are about the same
2. They don’t measure out as very good defenders

by Sports2 on Jul 26, 2008 8:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it's awful

and looks even worse when he’s on the court with elite caliber defenders like Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, and Stephen Jackson.

The Warriors don’t play defense. They have a Camby like player in Biedrins and that’s it. They’re a terrible defensive team that won’t stop anybody in crunch time.

Ellis may not be the worst defender on the team, but he’s simply terrible in the team defensive structure. Average offensive players drive right past him.

by NBA Observer on Jul 25, 2008 10:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

the point was

Ellis has a contract and Gordon doesn’t. The Bulls can’t choose whether to pay Gordon or Ellis, they have Gordon or not Gordon.

And however you dice it Gordon’s certainly not worse than Ellis. They’re comparable, that was my point.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 11:10 PM CDT   0 recs

(or just substitute Deng in the conversation if you like him better, yeesh)

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 11:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually, he is "worse."

I feel like that’s too strong of a word, but I’m pretty sure almost anyone who follows the NBA would put Monta above BG. I like BG, but $5/50 is his max worth. It’s ridiculous he turned that down.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 11:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

not if he gets 6/$60

I’m starting to feel like Reinsdorf is feeling the way you do, that Gordon and Deng need to be punished for turning down deals.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 24, 2008 11:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hold on a second

Before you assume too much here, let it be known that I’m in the camp that JR should have offered the same deals as last year. I think it’s dumb that he downgraded them after a bad year. Do you think they’d accept those deals now though? I’m not so sure.

$6/60 would be completely cool with me for BG. Any more than that, though, is unnecessary and downright excessive.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jul 24, 2008 11:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

An off year has an impact on market value

as it should. I think it’s dumb that you think it’s dumb that he downgraded them after a bad year. Hey, BaB! What if, just maybe, Deng and Gordon did make a mistake last season by turning down earlier than required offers that look like they were at or above fair market value! Wasn’t it reported that D&G turned down those deals mainly because they thought they’d increase their market value by having individual and team seasons? Did that happen? So their assumed risk of maintaining or decreasing their market value – knowingly assumed once they refused those deals – came to fruition! Maybe they screwed up in these negotiations! Maybe some of this is an attempt to save face by recuperating as much of last year’s offer as possible, even though they declined in their production, only got a year older, and coming off an injury plagued season. According to BaB, these only increased their market values. Deng & Gordon, Dolce & Gabbana.

by messwiththebull on Jul 26, 2008 8:35 AM CDT to parent up