Kevin Pelton's Low Opinion of BG
Interesting here that he has BG rated below JR Smith (who the Bulls had and traded for a bag of balls, immediately). I really respect Pelton's analysis, as he is consistently lucid and clear and really knows his stuff. Also, interesting is he notes that contrary to what some people here seem to believe Ben is 25 and that should let us know that "he is what he is at this point." This other quote was particularly damning of BG:
"Smith and Gordon are the two free agent shooting guards who created the most offense in 2007-08; Smith used 25.9 percent of Denver's possessions, while Gordon used 26.2 percent of Chicago's. Smith was more efficient with those possessions, posting a 60.3 percent True Shooting Percentage as compared to 55.8 percent for Gordon. As a result, Smith averaged 25.5 points per 40 minutes, better than Nuggets teammate Allen Iverson (25.3 points per 40).
Neither Gordon nor Smith offers much value outside of their scoring, so Smith's superiority in this area made him the more productive player a year ago even though his minutes were limited. "
This really makes me angry as we had Smith, who it appears is a taller Ben Gordon with more upside (being that he's younger) and we traded him for no assets because Skiles probably didn't like his "attitude" or that he sports a headband or some other such nonsense. Edit: I should note here that I don't irrationally hate BG because he's short or whatever. However, Smith is a very similar player except that he is taller and can finish much much better than Ben. That's why I pointed it out. Ben's lack of size often prevents him from finishing in the lane and that's not going away.
Also of note, is that no one has contacted J.R. Smith about signing him and he may be forced to take the Nuggets Q.O. I think if the Bulls can't come to some sort of resolution with BG, they should sign and trade for J.R. Smith using the trade exception they got from trading that other J. Smith fella. Anyway, food for thought.
Comments
Not that I want Smith...
...but I’ve been hating that trade since it happened. Matt and hscs keep telling me how stupid I am. I would like to know why, either from them or from Scotter, why there is a significant difference. I have some ideas why not, but I’d like to know from someone a lot smarter than me.
by tyger1147 on Jul 20, 2008 9:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I will say that I think Gordon has his worst defensive season ever last year.
It’s a real knock for Gordon and Deng to have done so much worse this year. I do think that if the Bulls don’t lock either up, they’ll both get huge contracts next year. Huge as in at least what they’re asking for this year.
by tyger1147 on Jul 20, 2008 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The BG mancrush blinds their sights, IMO.
Anyways, it’s pretty (read: ridiculously) absurd that we got rid of J.R. Smith for like 8 cents on the dollar. Makes me sick to think about. Easily one of Pax’s worst moves that for whatever reason is seemingly never talked about around these parts.
When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer
by Illini15 on Jul 20, 2008 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adrian Griffin was an amazing team leader, how dare you blaspheme like that
I don’t know about JR Smith. It seems like he has the body to be at least a decent defender, but man if he just isn’t awful at it. I wonder if they started him, could he average 20 points a night consistently? He had a very good season last year (his performance at the UC after the Corpse trade was quite amazing), but BG was a contributing scorer from the get-go, whereas Smith was drafted in the same year, yet has never really played more than reserve minutes. It’s hard to ignore his numbers this year (12 points in 19 minutes!), but he just seems to have a little too much Tony Delk for my liking. Plus, I’m confident that he’s a dumbass.
I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 20, 2008 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smith wouldn't have played here
I know there’s a general mocking of pursuing ‘character’, but f’real: Smith is a knucklehead.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 20, 2008 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus
I’d say at least Gordon wants to be a good defender, and can play in a team scheme.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 20, 2008 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
but if Smith gets less than the midlevel (all signs point to this) and BG wants more than 10 million, I’d rather have the knucklehead.
by JSlakov on Jul 21, 2008 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, this was my general point
was that if Ben is gonna take a real hardline about his contract negotiations, let him find someone else to sign him for over 10 mil (he won’t) and trade for some other pieces of value. Then make a run at the much more cost effective JR Smith, and hey it’ll probably make it easier to platoon him with Thabo, since he doesn’t command nearly as many minutes as Gordon. But yeah, I like JR at 5 – 5.5 million much better than I like Ben Gordon at 10 million per year.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really care what Ben wants to be
the bottom line is that he just isn’t a good defender. He’s not and really probably never will be, given the energy he expends on offense and his limitations due to his size. (You can be big and be a bad defender, but it’s really hard to be an effective 2-guard defender when you’re only 6’2.5”.) Ben probably also wants to be just like Gilbert Arenas (or paid like him at least), but he isn’t that either (and he won’t be getting Gilbert money).
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is.
Byron Scott, who I think is one of the best coaches in the league, ran him out of town even though Smith scored in double digits as a 19 year old. Smith has pissed off George Karl in the past, too.
That said, I’m shocked that nobody has made a run at him this offseason. His per36 stats (23ppg, 4rpg, 3apg along with his superefficient shooting) are ungodly for a 22 year old. And I’d take a chance on him.
by YaoPau on Jul 21, 2008 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
byron scott
got chandler in return…
by Sambossanova on Jul 21, 2008 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
I should note that if we pulled off the JR Smith signing on the cheap and got a sign and trade done for Gordon for expiring contracts and a first round pick, that it’d probably be much easier to get Deng, who’s apparently giving out two week ultimatums, under wraps long term. (I’m not a salary cap expert, but I believe that’s accurate).
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 8:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If the numbers posted elsewhere are correct
we have roughly $8.5M this year for Deng and Gordon each. If we reduce Gordon’s share to $5.5M (or whatever JR would cost), that’s another $3M we could throw at Deng for this year. So I think you’re right in your supposition.
by arjoseph on Jul 21, 2008 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I thought so
my only issue is that if we wanted to get something of value back for BG, we’d have to sign and trade him and that would add his 10 mil or whatever he wants onto our cap. Now, if we were getting expiring contracts back, that might mitigate the lux tax, but I’m not sure when the luxury tax is calculated and when you have to have gotten below it in order to not be hit with it. Maybe someone can enlighten me.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
JR = Gordon
Management personnel decisions will continue to be questioned. Yet, JR and Gordon both provide about equal value on the court. No real surprise. I imagine Ben’s character is so outstanding he’s worth 8 million more to the Bulls?
I finally understand, many Bulls players are paid according to their character with little regard for players ability or production. (i.e Adrian Griffin ).
PaxsDorf seem to adopt my son’s modified jr high school slogan “Character Counts More, it’s only a Game” Their basketball record was 1 win 8 losses.
Now the challenge becomes avoid becoming the former GangsterPacers, former JailBlazers or the Present ChoirBulls and also win games.
by exult463 on Jul 21, 2008 2:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So you prefer we emulate the offseason dealings of Bob Whisitt?
That was the architect of the JailBlazers, someone who gambled on every low character player out there, and ended up making the team a joke.
I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 21, 2008 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not about taking a gamble on every guy out there like that
but grabbing a guy like JR Smith, who is very young and immensely talented wouldn’t be that bad. It’s not like Smith is a horrible character guy, he’s just a knucklehead sometimes.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 5:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather he was a horrible character guy
even Ruben Patterson tried hard on the court.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 21, 2008 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is why the NBA needs something like DIPS, or historical adjusted +/-
J.R. Smith’s shot chart is really ugly, and it’s obvious he wouldn’t be as productive on a team that wasn’t so fast, and desperate for outside shots.
by hscs on Jul 21, 2008 6:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
well isn't the idea for the Bulls this year to play fast with Rose at the helm?
also, what do you mean his shot chart is ugly? something like the one here cause on that chart almost all of his zones are red, and the one I care most about as it regards Smith vs. Gordon is that he finishes in the area closest to the bucket (at the rim) at a much higher rate 57% for Smith this year and 45.9% for Gordon. That’s also not unique to this year, Smith finishes at the rim more often and at a higher rate than Gordon every year. Look, all I’m saying is, if Gordon is seeking too much money there are more affordable, younger options that will provide essentially the same level of production. There’s also evidence via Pts. surrendered per 100 possessions that Smith is a better defender than Gordon (and 82 games’s opponent counterpart PER at the SG slot for both would seem to suggest this as well). Also, adjusted plus-minus at basketballvalue suggest Smith does less to damage his team when he’s on the court than Gordon (Smith clocks in at -1.99, whereas Gordon stinks out the place at -9.88 (worst on the team by far). Like I said in the original post, I don’t hate Gordon, I’m just saying he’s not worth what he seems to be demanding, as a guy like Smith who hasn’t even garnered much attention league wide is by a number of metrics atleast Gordon’s equal (and might even be better when youth and defense are factored in).
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amen brother
Which is why I’ve posted several times on BAB that I don’t think BG is worth even the QO of $6.4million
by hlac on Jul 21, 2008 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, we're aware
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 21, 2008 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smith has no mid-range game (the trick is getting past the pretty colors)
and all that finishing hasn’t paid off in FTA. Smith is chucking threes, or making uncontested layups. He’s been doing the same thing his entire career.
Historical adjusted +/- means more than one season too.
by hscs on Jul 21, 2008 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, he doesn't shoot a lot from midrange
but he hits all those threes he is chucking at a pretty good clip and we have Deng (I hope) to run underneath and hit midrange shots. And does anyone really think he got 221 attempts at uncontested layups? Do you have any place where I could get a look at some historical adjusted plus / minus for both Gordon and Smith? Or are you just throwing it out there to dismiss my claims without knowing what either of their historical +/- indicates?
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
one season doesn't indicate much
That’s why it’s a good idea to compare career numbers. A cherry-picking fest between a bad Gordon season, and good Smith season isn’t much of a comparison.
by hscs on Jul 21, 2008 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a fair criticism
I’ll go take another look at their total career numbers
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
B-R comparison looks like this for anyone who cares is
here. BG comes out looking slightly better, but does it justify paying him an extra 5 million over what you could get a guy like JR Smith for? I’m not sure.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so I went back and looked at the 2006-07 numbers and Ben was at +3.03 and J.R. was -2.45 I believe.
However, it is worth noting (I think) that Ben played horribly in a contract year and JR continued to improve.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 21, 2008 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's, um, worth noting that EVERYONE played bad this year.
I think it’s realy, really safe to say that any poor performance this year should not be held against any one player. Doesn’t mean that one should assume he would have vastly improved if in a different situation, but does the fact that the vast majority of the roster played worse last year than the previous not mean anything?
by tyger1147 on Jul 21, 2008 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it COULD mean that most of these guys plateaued at about the same time
which is bad news no matter what, but if we recognize that as a possibility, why pay Gordon (and Deng even) like they are still on the career arc we envisioned pre-2007-08? The fact is they both regressed during contract years, Gordon more so than Deng. Why reward that? Also, they knew the gamble of not getting signed last year; they took it and they failed. I just don’t wanna see the Bulls stuck with mediocrity. Maybe JR Smith isn’t the answer (he probably isn’t), but I guess I’m just getting antsy with the drawn out negotiations (I think we all are, to a degree).
by fundamentallysound on Jul 22, 2008 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It could mean that, of course.
But not many guys peak at age 21 (Deng) and maybe only a few more at age 23 (Gordon). As messwithbulls said, I’ll go w/ the quantifiable analysis that just says that’s extremely unlikely.
To expound: it’s not just that these guys plateaued in a contract year or at a young age, it’s that their peaks were at age 21 and age 23. While one most certainly has to allow for that, it’s sooooo extremely unlikely to almost (but not quite) be ignored.
by tyger1147 on Jul 22, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahem, Ben Gordon is 25 now, and was 24 during most of this year
and Deng is 23 now, and was 22 during the season. Deflating the numbers to serve your argument is just as bad as cherry-picking the stats like I did (although that wasn’t really my intention, I was just lazy with my analysis).
by fundamentallysound on Jul 22, 2008 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right. Those are their ages now.
Which means you think they may have peaked at 23 and 21, respectively, the season before last. Which I agree with tyger is pretty unlikely.
J.R. Smith??? Really??? Should we try to get Tim Thomas back too?
by BaronVonB on Jul 22, 2008 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops.. Thanks.
I’m mean. You’re not. Fundamentallysound is uninterested in the truth.
by tyger1147 on Jul 23, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for coming off like that.
I just misread your point.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 23, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you agree, then, the year before last, their best year...
...was at 21 and 23. Jesus, you’re an effin’ moron.
by tyger1147 on Jul 23, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm less sorry after you called me a moron, which I can assure you I'm not.
I just glossed over the fact that you were saying that their best years were hopefully not their peak years. If glossing over something and making a mistake based on that makes me a moron in your eyes, so be it.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 23, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I meant to add that, "I admit I'm a jerk."
And apologize. I was actually hoping you wouldn’t come back to read it.
by tyger1147 on Jul 23, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha, well I did. I check this blog semi-religiously, but no hard feelings
discussions get heated sometimes. I’ve called someone (can’t remember who) a moron here, but I believe it was because he implied I was a moron for disagreeing with him without providing any reason for why he was right. You, in fact, were right, which is why I didn’t get my feelings hurt about it and say mean things back. Anyway, moving along and back to Bulls talk.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 23, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd for being heartwarming
I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 23, 2008 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those statistical comparisons aren't really fair either
JR Smith plays often with 2 all league offensive weapons and a couple other decent guys alongside him to boot.
He gets many many many more open looks playing on the floor with AI and Melo than Gordon does playing alongside T2, Noah, and Hinrich, and you name it…..
That analysis overanalyzes the stats…..Gordon’s asked to do too much with the ball in the clutch for the Bulls who have NO OFFENSIVE HELP inside and little offensive help in the crunch time outside of BG….
by majoyenrac on Jul 22, 2008 9:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kevin Pelton's is usually well reasoned, but he missed the boat in this case.
Forget that Gordon rebounds just as well as Smith or that Gordon is a more accomplished passer or that Gordon has a history of at least trying on defense and being average on that end of the floor. Forget that Smith is a very dumb basketball player. If we look at just scoring, Gordon is still a superior player.
Just looking at USG% and TS% isn’t enough in this case. You also have to look at roles they played offensively. Smith was never a primary option, and his shot mix reflects that. 57% of his FGA were 3PA and only 12% were 2P jump shots. He’s never had or developed any game in between the rim and the three point line. Smith is what he is just like Gordon. Neither are going to become much better at basketball. The difference is that Gordon can change his role making him a more effective player with the same abilities.
Gordon was the 1st offensive option on the team, while also being the most efficient player on the team. He was playing in an offensive that was designed to primarily generate open mid-range jump shots. Which meant that 52% of Gordon’s jump shots were from 2 point land and that he took far more unassisted and contested shots than Smith. If you slide Gordon from 1st option to 2nd or 3rd option and Gordon is not only taking more 3PA and fewer mid-range jump shots, but he’s taking more assisted shots making Gordon much more efficient. There’s no role change that Smith could undergo that would make him more efficient. Not all true shoot percentages are created equal.
by Scotter on Jul 23, 2008 5:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thank you, Scotter
your explanatory powers never cease to impress. I knew intuitively that I had to be crazy and a lot of this was me playing devil’s advocate, but when KP writes something, I usually take note. Your explanation makes more sense (and I believe it’s what hscs was driving at as well). I still don’t think we should pay Gordon anything over 11 million a year. 14 for Deng and 11 for Gordon per year would be my cieling for those two guys. It’s just too bad no one offered them an offer sheet to set the market so we could be done with this mess.
by fundamentallysound on Jul 23, 2008 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I enjoy posts where people think before they write
I’m too lazy to do it myself, but I applaud your efforts.
I was a multiple time all star throughout my little league career. Won 5 championships- 4 in a row- thats more in a row than MJ… (kenwo4life@aol.com)
by Ozzie Montana on Jul 23, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you slide Gordon...
I’m asking now. Who would become our 1st and second options?
by hlac on Jul 24, 2008 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Thorpe
kind of vague, but it seems to mean he likes BG a lot more:
Michael (Chicago, IL): Hey David, who would you rather have on your team a scoring 2-guard that physcially can’t guard a 2 (i.e. Ben Gordon) or a scoring 2-guard that mentally can’t guard a 2 (i.e. JR Smith)?SportsNation David Thorpe: (12:06 PM ET ) If you are asking me if I’d rather have BG or JR, I’d have to ban you and report you to the police.
by JSlakov on Jul 23, 2008 11:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs












