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Thinking about the Future and the 90s Sonics

[From the FanPosts. A very fun and interesting read. -ed.]

The events of the last few weeks has me thinking about the Seattle Supersonics of the 1990's.  They had the #2 overall pick in the 1990 draft, which they used to select Gary Payton after Derrick Coleman went 1st overall.   Payton joined a team that had just  missed the playoffs with 41 wins after losing in the 2nd round the year before.  He also joined a team with a collection of good players, but no stars, and a raw 2nd year athletic PF in Shawn Kemp.  The Sonics made the playoffs in Payton's 1st season, the 2nd round in his 2nd seasons, and all the way to game 7 of the Western Conference finals in his 3rd season.  That 3rd season was the beginning of a six year run where the Sonics won at least 55 games, averaging 59.5 wins.  They finished in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency every season.  According to Basketball-Reference's rating system, the Sonics never finished with worse than the league's 3rd best regular season during the six year run.  These Sonics had some famous playoff failures, most notably losing to the 8th seed Nuggets in 1994 only eclipsed by the Mavericks exiting the 1st round at the hand of the Warriors.  Still the Sonics were good enough to compete for a championship and with different fortune could have won one.  And there's some similarities to what the Bulls are now trying to accomplish.

Gary Payton is a different player than Derrick Rose, but there are some similarities in terms of being a PG with physical advantages, but not a developed jumpshot.  But, the bigger similarity is that the Bulls are asking Rose to do what Payton did.  To join a team with established playoff level talent as a somewhat raw top 2 overall draft  pick and become not only the best player on the team, but also the team leader.  It took Payton time.  He didn't average double digit points per game until his third season.  He only had a PER of 13 in his 1st two years.  And only averaged 13.5 points and 4.9 assists when the Sonics went to the Western Conference Finals in his third year.  It wasn't until his fifth season that Payton established himself as both the best player on the team and the team leader.  I don't think it will take Rose that long, but if he struggles Payton is an example to keep in mind.  Seattle also did the right thing by starting him the entire time and playing him close to 30 minutes per game even during those 1st two seasons.

Last summer I wrote about Shawn Kemp having what was really the only similar rookie season to Tyrus Thomas.  A comparison that was more interesting because of their similarities as raw 20 year old athletic power forwards.  Those similarities were actually still present, despite Tyrus's disappointing 2nd season and Kemp's solid 15 and 8 2nd season.   But,  that's it's own fanpost.  Let me summarize by saying that a Shawn Kemp like impact is still possible for Tyrus.  And I see the Bulls future success tied to Rose and Thomas in the same way that Seattle's was tied to Payton and Kemp.

In addition Deng is actually a pretty similar player to Detlef Schrempf in terms of never being an effective #1 offensive option or efficiently averaging 20+ points per game.  But, Deng like Schrempf can be a very efficient 3rd option averaging close to 20 points per game.  Schrempf shot a very good 3 point %, but never took many 3 point shots.  It's that type of role where's he's the third best player on the team that's perfect for Deng.

I also find it interesting what Seattle did with with the SG position.  While Payton and Kemp were getting up to speed, Seattle relied on a one dimensional scorer in Ricky Pierce to be the team's leading scorer.  In the 2nd half of Seattle's run, Seattle used a former 20 point per game scorer and undersized SG in Hersey Hawkins as a very efficient fourth option.  If you're primarily a shooter, it's easier to make that transition from 1st option to 3rd or 4th option like Ray Allen did last season.  If Gordon is re-signed then I'd anticipate that type of evolution in role.  If the team is winning, while Gordon's role decreases I think he'll be fine.  And if not then he's a much easier to replace when the team needs less scoring from that position a few years from now.  If I'm Paxson, I think hard about paying Gordon more to get him on a shorter three year contract.  The team does need his scoring in the short term.

Seattle's big problem has been the center position ever since my third cousin left for Milwaukee in 1986.  In addition to George Karl mixing and matching Sam Perkins with the likes of Benoit Benjamin, Michael Cage, Ervin Johnson, Bill Cartwright, and Jim McIlvaine in their quest for a starting center.  If only they had been able to draft Mouhamed Sene a decade earlier.  This is where Noah can be difference maker.  One of the reasons for Seattle's problems in the playoffs is that despite being a top ten defense, they were a below average defensive rebounding team.  In the playoffs where it's harder to force turnovers, defensive rebounding becomes more important.  That shouldn't be a problem area for the Bulls as it wasn't over the last few years, finishing in the top ten from 04/05 through 06/07, and nearly everyone in the rotation is at least an average defensive rebounder for their position.

I thought these were interesting similarities.  I'm not suggesting Seattle is a blue print to follow, but it's an interesting precedent for what the Bulls are trying to do over the next couple of years.  There are some similar dynamics at work.  Obviously if there is a 2010 free agent miracle then the complexion of the team will greatly change.  But, I think starting lineup of Rose, Gordon, Deng, Thomas, and Noah works.  They'll be some obvious differences at the individual level, but the sum of the parts could be something very similar to what the Sonics had in terms of overall impact.  Anyway, I thought it was a comparison worth making.

FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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I like it

I never thought about leaving Noah out of it for the sake of a comparison. His uniqueness is tough to get around. Since you brought up Sikma…

NOTEWORTHY BASKETBALL-REFERENCE SPELLING ERROR!!!

Born: November 14, 1955 in Kankankee, Illinois

by hscs on Jun 28, 2008 8:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice catch.

I can’t believe I’ve never noticed that my birthplace was spelled wrong. Shame on you Kubatko.

I haven’t really looked for comparable players to Noah because I haven’t thought of a decent match, yet. The Chandler comparisons that get thrown out don’t really work.

formerly sbulls

by Scotter on Jun 28, 2008 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

So by year 6, we'll

beat every NBA team outside of Chicago? I’d take that.

I like the analysis, Scotter. Payton’s scoring in his first two years interested me most, although I imagine the transition from 1991 Oregon State to the NBA is harder than what Rose will have to go through. Payton’s teams never made it past the first round of the NCAA tournament, while Rose has faced the best college has to offer. Still, I’m scaling back my first year expectations just a littttle bit.

by YaoPau on Jun 28, 2008 8:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice comparison

but don’t you think that the new nba rules will work in favor of Rose and the Bulls? I know that in the playoffs, these new rules seem to be much more relaxed and therefore, Rose might not be as effective as he could be during the regular season.

I would also like your take on comparing these 2 teams benches. We will probably have Thabo and some combination of Hinrich/Gooden/Noc (if not them, then some sort of talent upgrade for a need position)

by gman2849 on Jun 28, 2008 8:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not near as knowledgeable as Scotter.

But one of the rule changes that has allowed the penetrating PG to be such a factor is that of making the hand-check illegal. Payton was known as The Glove for a reason. I don’t know how much that matters…

by tyger1147 on Jun 28, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

Remember Jordan had probably his worst Finals while being guarded by Payton. Although I imagine a star like Payton would have some leeway to hack away akin to a Bruce Bowen.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 28, 2008 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oooooooo.... That might be another reason to get rid of Hinrich now.

Maybe he’ll never get out of his foul trouble because of the new rules. Maybe, just maybe, you can convince someone that this past year was an aberration, or that he can learn to be better, when in reality, he probably never will be as long as they have these rules.

by tyger1147 on Jun 28, 2008 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was originally thinking the bulls would look to make a move on hinrich right away,

but i suppose it makes good sense to wait until the bulls get rose into camp and see exactly what they’ve got before they determine if they want to move hinrich. i still think hinrich gets moved, but the bulls might want to see rose in practice and make sure he’s comfortable before they are ready to jump without a parachute.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

You need two capable PGs and assuming that Duhon is gone that only leaves the Capt.

by chlutz508 on Jun 30, 2008 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

was Mike Wilks' phone reposessed?

A Hinrich trade could get a capable PG back, and there’s always free agency.

management sez: recommend fanposts/fanshots/comments! Click 'reply' when replying to a comment! Flag jerkfaces!

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 30, 2008 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The rules changes certainly help, especially in the regular season.

Some of the differences between Rose and Payton are going to benefit Rose early on. Rose is superior speed and jumping ability will help him. Rose is also a player that gets to the FT line at a much higher rate than Payton. Payton didn’t go to the line much in college and that carried it over to the NBA. Payton had pretty significant turnover and foul trouble early on. I expect turnovers will be an issue for Rose early on, but I wouldn’t expect fouling to be an issue for him because he isn’t constantly trying to steal the ball the way Payton was. I don’t have a firm idea of what to expect, yet. Summer league as useless as it can be still will at least show him in a different offensive system and playing with a couple of his new teammates.

Seattle’s bench evolved over time, but the two key players was Nate McMillan as the defensive 3rd guard and Sam Perkins as the offensive big off the bench. In the early years they had established vets like Eddie Johnson and Michael Cage as well, but they were gone after the first few years of the Payton/Kemp era. The 8-10 bench guys were mostly journey men types. Vincent Askew, David Wingate, and Frank Brickowski for example. i believe the bench became a problem for Seattle. They eventually lacked both shooters and rebounders off the bench.

if Thabo is the longterm answer as the defensive bench player then you’re looking for 10-15 min per game 3-point shooter either at SF or PG and a replacement for Drew Gooden after this season in PF/C rotation.
That’s long term. I don’t know what’s going to happen for this season.

formerly sbulls

by Scotter on Jun 28, 2008 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that spot-up shooter off the bench is an easy piece to find.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 12:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post, thanks for sharing it

Let’s just hope Paxson doesn’t read it and think he needs to keep Hinrich or Duhon as the McMillan to Rose’s Payton.

We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan

by snley on Jun 28, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

So, we have to make due with Gordon for two more years

at least??

I guess the more appropriate question is—at what price?

by hlac on Jun 28, 2008 9:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice post

The 90s Sonics team were some of the most talented teams to never win a title, so it’s kind of a flattering comparison until you take into account they had some epic failures as well (1st round losses to LA and Denver). I still remember Rodman destroying the Sonics’ centers on the boards, and Kemp really establishing himself as a superstar during the Finals.

Schrempf was a very good offensive player, who was able to post people up and hit some nice turnaround jumpers, at least that’s what he did a lot in Portland. If Deng could extend his game beyond the arc and develop a nice turnaround shot as well, he could easily be a 20 ppg scorer.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 28, 2008 10:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's an article from Hoops Analyst that I just found that addresses the Payton/Kemp era

pretty well. The article points out that only the Nuggets loss was really an epic failure. It’s the only time they lost to a clearly inferior team. It’s the best record, but it’s better than I thought it was before reading the article.

Rebounding really became a problem in 1995/96 when the Sonics no longer had Michael Cage, who was the banger that could have matched up with Dennis. Schrempf was more of a post player and got to the FT line more than Deng does right now. They get their points a little differently, but it’s a decent comparison in terms of the role.

formerly sbulls

by Scotter on Jun 28, 2008 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

correct me if i'm wrong, because it's been a while since i watched detlef,

but he was more of a scorer than deng, no? by that i mean he scored a lot of his points by being given the ball and creating a scoring opportunity for himself. i think deng could develop some of that in the low post, but i think deng’s m.o. will be about how he gets himself in position to score without having been given the ball yet.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was definitely a guy you would isolate in the post and he could create his own shot or.

find an open player. And he was crafty enough to go to the FT line at a very high rate, 1 FTA for every 2 FGA. But he was also a mid-range jump shooter than never really a 3-point shooter, except when they moved in the line for three seasons. He could score 1 on1, but never scored that much. Never averaging 20 points per game. I think Deng can reach a point where he can effectively exploit a mismatch in the post, but I don’t expect him to be quite that type of post player. But, he can do other things on the break and off of cuts that Schrempf couldn’t. It was more a comparison of their similar usage/efficiency relationship than a comparison of skill sets.

The future is Maya Moore

by Scotter on Jun 29, 2008 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He may have never been "a 3 point shooter" per se, but

he was really, really good at shooting them in his last couple of years with the Sonics.

If I remember correctly, deep into each of his last two or three seasons at Seattle, he was leading the league in 3P%, with well over 50%.

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Jun 30, 2008 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He took less than one 3PA per game until the leage moved

the 3P line in. For the three years where the league moved the line in, he took between 2.2 and 2.8 3PA/g and did shoot above 50% one year. After the line moved back out his 3PA/g dropped back below 2/g. He made the ones he took, but he also never took that many.

by Scotter on Jun 30, 2008 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

with rose running the point, i'll bet that deng gets a ton of open looks at that baseline 18 footer.

i’m not particularly concerned with him stepping outside the arc because he is such a great off-the-ball cutter. with all eyes on rose, deng should be able to put up ~20 per with baseline jumpers, cutting layups and dunks, and the occasional putback when the defense loses him. and he should be able to do it pretty efficiently, too.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to mention some easy transition points, which have been sorely lacking in the bulls offense recently.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 12:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Payton vs. Rose

Perhaps the biggest difference (well, concerning our expectations) is that Payton was two years older than Rose will be. He turned 22 in the July following the draft; Rose will turn 20 this October. Maybe even more patience should be expected.

by tyger1147 on Jun 28, 2008 10:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That would mean a Seven year wait?

I’m hoping he’s a quick study. I also think he’s a much better scorer than Payton, and that’ll keep him on the floor. I’d love to go 30-52 if we’re playing the kids constantly, and giving them some valuable experience. That said, it’d be fine if we went 52-30, too. :)

"I tell you, Steve Blass, you pitch me inside, they never, never find that ball."
-Roberto Clemente

by cubbybear on Jun 29, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love Derrick Rose, he is

exciting as hell to watch and I think he’ll be a very good palyer. But I really think we’re gonna regret not taking Michael Beasley. He’s a truly special talent and is gonna dominate. I think his downside is probably Chris Bosh, which is pretty damn good. Where as I can easily see Rose playing like Devin Harris or Shaun Livingston, explosive and dynamic, but not as great an impact as what Beasley will bring. In the end I think everyone was just seduced by Rose’s style of play, where he was born and a possible upside that may never come to fruition and that includes John Paxson. Also everyone bought into the whole “it’s a point guard league” crap. It’s not a point guard league, it’s a great player league and you win by having the best players. I’ll root my ass for Rose and I hope i’m wrong, but everything points to Beasley becoming the big time player from this years draft.

by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 29, 2008 12:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Chris Bosh is also a legit 6'11 PF/C...not a tweener

And his game is more akin to Kevin Garnett with a determination to score inside than anything Beasley does. When I see Beasley, I don’t see someone that will be able to dominate defensively the way Bosh does, either. He’s going to be a supreme offensive talent, no doubt, but I think the chance of him being a franchise leader are slim.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He might be slightly shorter than Bosh,

but he’s got like 30 pounds on him and he’s only 19. In a few years he’s gonna be absolutely unstoppable. As far as defense goes he’ll probably never be KG, but I think with his overall size he’ll be able to hold his own against most power forwards in the league while still putting up respectable block totals. Not to mention you could hide him on D and put him on the Jason Collins types. As far as being a franchise player goes, look at T-Mac, James, Anthony, Brand as just a few examples of guys that are considered franchise players, yet are hardly considered defensive stoppers. If Beasley can score and rebound like he should be able to he will be a franchise player. Meanwhile everyone just considers it a given that Rose is gonna be Chris Paul (another “franchise player” that can’t really stop anybody) when he can EASILY be just decent and nothing truly special. People just keep pointing out the negatives on Beasley, but the guy had a better freshman year than Durant did, and Durant was hailed as the second coming of MJ last year. AND he played on a far worse team than Durant. As long as he’s not a total scumbag and doesn’t bother learning the plays, this guy is gonna be special from year one.

by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 29, 2008 12:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see many logical posters comparing Rose to Paul

In fact, I keep seeing most people saying “Be patient”. I will be the first one to tell you Rose will have his struggles in the upcoming season, but I have no doubt he will be a very special player for us. We drafted Rose, not Beasley, so other than following his games once the season starts I don’t really care about him anymore.

And, I find it hard to believe the Beasley’s worst case scenario is an All-Star like Bosh. Worst case implies just that. If Beasley was that much of a slam dunk Rose would have been irrelevant, despite his emergence during the tournament.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 1:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whether or not you expect it to happen next year

or 3 years from now is irrelevant, most people do expect Rose to become a Chris Paul caliber PG at some point. And if you don’t, I would ask why you would want to draft him with the first pick. I understand “be patient” but whether you like it or not expectations for the #1 pick are very high and in order for him to meet them he’‘ll have to play around that level. And if he doesn’t, it’s very simple. Pax made the wrong pick. In order for this pick to be justified Rose has to be a superior talent, REGARDLESS OF POSITION. Otherwise it’s a no brainer to take the guy with the un-godly production in his freshman year (Beasley). And Beasley is/was a “slam dunk”. Just think back prior to march, this was the Michael Beasley draft. He was the unanimous choice, considered to be an insane, can’t miss talent that is a lock for the all star game at the next level. Then came the tourney and the emergence of Rose on to the national scene. You take a fabulous tournament performance, freakish athleticism, playing a position that is suddenly in extremely high demand, as well as hometown ties and the picture got a little cloudy for the team with the first pick. Add in extreme local media pressure to draft Rose, and there you go, first pick. And one last thing, i’m sure you’ve seen this, on Hollinger’s player rater Beasley was like the highest rated player in the history of his system while Rose was just above average. Now I don’t put too much stock in that stuff, but at the very least I think it points to definite future success for Beasley and some questions for Rose.

by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 29, 2008 1:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

personally, i think the #1 pick is about winning a nba title.

so when judging which player should have been drafted first, titles are gonna trump everything else. this is where the beasley/rose debate always goes, imo. and if i’m trying to ask myself which of these 2 players i could see winning a title and being the main go-to guy on a championship team, i answer rose. i think beasley will probably be a stat-sheet filler, but i don’t know that he’s gonna be a winner, and if he is one, i don’t think he’ll be the main guy on his team. there are a lot of great scorers in the nba. he may be one of the elite ones. the problem is there’s only one ball. if he’s scoring then somebody else isn’t. the best players are doing a lot of other things to win, defense being chief among them. i don’t know that beasley is gonna be that guy.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 2:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

See, I don't buy that at all.

Look no further than the finals this year and with Paul Pierce. He was always considered that type of player, a non winning scorer, then look at what he did. It’s all about accumulating talent, and Beasley can be a major peice to any championship team. If he’s getting double teamed he could have the same effect on winning as Rose. The best palyers win championships and the whole “Rose is a winning player” thing is a cop out.

by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 29, 2008 2:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

pierce had a very good series, but boston had a mvp candidate on their team and it wasn't paul pierce.

and if beasley is getting double-teamed he would probably be the best player on that team, which cancels out the pierce comparison, and he’d better do a little bit better than the 1.2 assists per game he averaged in college.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 4:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

So Beasley can win a title with KG and Ray Allen

Um, you would hope a player would be successful when he is surrounded with 2 All-Stars and a stifling defense. I don’t get your example.

And, of course there are questions for Rose. But, why aren’t you acknowledging the questions about Beasley? You think his character would be an issue if he was such a slam dunk? Kevin Durant had a similar freakish freshman year, but there weren’t any questions about his work ethic or committment to the game. He still went 2nd instead of 1st. I don’t buy into this Beasley will be a dominant player unlike any other. He’s going to be very similar to scoring PF’s that are already in the league with questionable defense. He can’t hide his size on defense all the time. Put him on a big center with no offensive skills, the center can still back him down in the post.

And I don’t buy this local media crap. EVERYONE was saying the Bulls should pick Rose. Since when does Paxson give a crap about what the media says?

And everyone is talking about how superstar PG’s don’t win titles. Well, show me a list of all the tweener forwards who have won titles as either the team leader or the primary scoring option. Mark Aguirre was one of the most talented scorers in the 80s, but his teams didn’t do shit in the playoffs, and he only won titles as a supporting player on the Pistons.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Preach it

Tony Parker led the spurs the a championship. Ya they had tim duncan but they couldn’t have dont it with out ‘lil’ tone. he’s a goofy lookin guy but there a few that can stay with him off the dribble, and his wife is smokin’ hot so he’s aight with me.

by AFireInside661 on Jun 29, 2008 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

See, I don't think Chris Bosh is a relly special player.

He’s good don’t get me wrong, but I don’t see one skill that he has that Beasley doesn’t have or exceed. The only thing is that Bosh is longer. Other than that, i’m sorry, but I think Beasley is far more talented. Take a look at Bosh’s rookie line 11.5 pts 7.4 rbs 1.4 blk, I would bet my house that Beasley will dwarf those numbers in his rookie year. And Bosh’s stat’s for last year: 22.3 pts 8.7 rbs 1 blk are good, but not dominant, especially the block totals.

by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 29, 2008 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're just speculating on Beasley's potential

Yet you are criticizing people who speculate on Rose? I don’t get that. You don’t know if Beasley will be as good as Bosh, KG, Fizer, whomever. He hasn’t even had a NBA practice yet.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And neither has Rose

Which is why no one is just assuming Rose is going to come out and average 10 assists in his rookie season. Those who do are setting themselves up for potential disappointment.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

he'll probably score a lot more than bosh, but i wouldn't hand him the other numbers.

bosh is a lot taller than beasley. those college blocks/rebounds aren’t gonna come as easy. don’t forget bosh shot 56% from the field in college and shot less than 46% his first year in the nba. i’m expecting beasley to have a similar drop in fg %, perhaps even more so because i think he’ll be shooting more jump shots and be in the lane less. so he might score, but it might also be inefficient for his position. which leads to the question of which position that will be, because he is a tweener and we don’t know if he’ll try to bulk up to stay down low or work on his agility to move to the perimeter. i agree beasley is a special talent, but if you think the only questions about him are off the court, then i couldn’t disagree with you more.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 2:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's where most people are getting this whole thing wrong.

The only time Beasley’s height disadvantage (if you want to call it that) will come in to play is when he’s on defense. Offensively he’ll be able to blow past any bigs they put on him and get to the basket. And if they put a larger, athletic 3 on him he can just post him up. The guy scored the ball at record pace consistantly, in a power conference while being double and triple teamed on nearly every play. It’s really incredible if you think about what he was able to do. His skill set for his age and size is almost unmatched. As for defense, I addressed that earlier but I think people are making far too big a deal out of it especially cause I don’t think it’s a lock that Rose is gonna be such a great defender. Everyone is just assuming that he will because he has all the tools to do so. It’s not a neccessity that your best player be your best defender as well. If his block numbers aren’t obscenely low he should be fine.

by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 29, 2008 2:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i said i think beasley is gonna see a regression in his fg% his rookie year.

you seem to think he won’t. is there some basis for this? you clearly wish the bulls had taken beasley instead of rose, but you also seem to be willing to take several leaps of faith on beasley and none on rose. this isn’t really a discussion if you’re just gonna drink the beasley kool-aid and try to temper everyone else from drinking the rose kool-aid. not to mention the fact that one player is a bull and the other will probably never be.

and this statement: “That’s where most people are getting this whole thing wrong.” is problematic, too. these are all opinions on the future. they can’t be wrong. no one knows what’s going to happen.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 4:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are a lot of reasons

to believe Beasley will be great. The nature of the position he plays is that if you’re great it will show up in your individual stats. And it did.

There are also a lot of reasons to believe Rose will be great. The nature of the position he plays is that if you’re great your team should win a lot of games. And it did—it always has.

One thing I read about Rose, and this was not from the local Rose-infatuated press, was that he will likely be the best athlete ever at his position. That position is one about which the NBA is taking great pains to reward athleticism. I think it’s very easy to imagine Rose having a greater impact on team wins-as well as more spectacular individual performances-than Beasley.

Paxson mentioned in one of his press cons that college rules on the perimeter hamper point guards because hand-checking, grabbing and holding are all still “legal” in the college game. So, while this move to the pros will have Rose running up against smaller, slower, less physical opponents, Beasley will now have to toil against bigger, stronger, more physical athletes.

Dum spiro spero! (While there is life, there’s hope!)--Leon Trotsky

by alec on Jun 29, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The amount of zone is going to substantially decrease as well

NBA teams don’t use it that frequently, and if Rose is being played straight up, he should be able to take at least half the PG’s in the league off the dribble since it’s not a position littered with good defenders.

I just don’t understand how 1 amazing college season is a 100% indicator of success, but another very good college season is hype. All of college basketball is hype, it’s not even that talented as people are leading us to believe. The product is so inferior in every way compared to the NBA that I would never assume someone with a great college career would be a dominant NBA player.

I really hope this debate turns into the Okafor/Howard debate. Maybe it will look dumb the first year, but afterwords no one will even remember there was a question about who to take.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zones = why it's important to keep Ben Gordon.

If people can’t see the value of having one of, if not THE, best 3-pt shooter in the history of the game to help out a penetrating guard (who is, btw, excellent at drive-and-kic), then there is no hope.

by tyger1147 on Jun 29, 2008 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now I like BG as much as most on BaB

but even this is a little strong for me….

by potato0328 on Jun 30, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?

That Gordon is one of the best 3-pt shooters ever? You do realize “ever” only means “of the past 30 years”, right?

by tyger1147 on Jun 30, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

'THE' best 3-pt shooter in the history of the game...

is too strong. I can’t wait to see him more as a spot up shooter though, he’s got a good percentage when creating a least half of his own threes.

by JockstrapNoah on Jul 4, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A little, sure, but how much?

Okay, so he’s 10th all-time in 3FG%, but not one person above him takes as many three pointers per game as him, which is 4.5 per game. Wesley Person, who is #9 on the list, takes 3.8. Steve Nash is third (among the Top 10) at 3.4. Anthony Parkers sits at 2.9. Hubert Davis, I think, is fifth at 2.5. Then you have a bunch of guys at

You have to go all the way to 19, w/ Peja at 5.4 pg to find someone who has taken more 3’s per game in their career than Gordon while keeping a high percentage made. I think most of us would, and should, accept that taking more 3’s and being a primary scorer makes it that much harder to be efficient. Could Kerr or Kopono do what they’ve done if not running 6th/7th/8th/9th fiddle?

I’m comfortable in saying that Steve Nash and Peja Stojakovic are the two best 3-pt shooters ever. Gordon sits right there with, if not above, Hubert Davis and Wesley Person. Considering his age, while not likely, it’s not inconceivable that he could be up w/ Nash and Peja by the end of his career. I should have put that qualifier in w/ my original post. Something like “the potential to be the best ever”... or something.

by tyger1147 on Jul 7, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Point Guard Hand Checking and your Zone Defense Points

are Fr@$king Great!

Two things that I had not considered to date!

Man this info only gets me that much more excited to see this team play. If only for the solid upgrade in all around coaching from every angle these young guys will need support with to simply not having nearly as many distractions/injuries (hopefully) as last year. Add one more year of development/growth/experience/weight training (Tyrus—Noah). Drop in a better floor leader (despite age and rookie status) then Hinrich and include at least another inside scorer in Gooden. I think you have a better team. certainly better then last year, but possibly/probably better then 2 years ago when we won 49.

by gman2849 on Jun 29, 2008 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post, Scotter

.. and one Rec for you.

by paxson43 on Jun 29, 2008 7:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Fantastic post

It gives me more of a feel for what the Bulls might look like in the future. It falls right in line with Paxson mentioning that Rose will help Tyrus get better, and neglecting anyone else.

"I tell you, Steve Blass, you pitch me inside, they never, never find that ball."
-Roberto Clemente

by cubbybear on Jun 29, 2008 12:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but Kemp was an amazing player in his own right

Tyrus needs to figure out how to utilize his athleticism in a way that doesn’t seem so out of control. This is going to be his 3rd season now, hopefully he is going to learn how to cut down on the stupid mistakes. Even if Drew Gooden starts because he’s more experienced, Tyrus is the guy the coaching staff wants to start in the long run.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

on that subject, we're just going to have to hope that derrick and tyrus find some quick chemistry and are able to show glimpses of what they can do together early.

i think the bulls will happily make their pick-and-roll a big part of the offense if those 2 can show some early success at it. getting off to a good start for both derrick and tyrus might be a huge omen of what’s to come. hopefully they take the reigns early and gain the confidence of pax and vdn right away.

Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?

by MarketMaker on Jun 29, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If only Thomas had played more last year...

...and learned some of the tricks of the trade. You can’t learn how to guard players like Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace or Kevin Garnett but guarding like guys like Andres-effin-Nocioni.

by tyger1147 on Jun 29, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is Noce our Jim McIlvaine?

Just kidding. Great post. After the first couple sentences, I was waiting to here good old Jim McIlvaine name.

by Jesse07 on Jun 29, 2008 7:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My unpopular opinion

I’m honestly expecting Derrick Rose to be very similar to Gary Payton, but more athletic and longer. I’m not alone, (first paragraph on the top)

by jrapps1323 on Jun 29, 2008 9:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

How is that unpopular?

GP was one of the best PG’s of the 90s, probably tied with KJ, just had a longer career.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 29, 2008 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you told me that D-Rose would have The Glove's career

I’d take it in a heartbeat. And run. Gary Payton was a truly great player.

Parental Advisory - Explicit Content

by Jivas on Jun 30, 2008 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Rose can defend to the level that Payton can

Hinrich’s out of a job…

It’s a sad time…

by Alighieri on Jun 29, 2008 10:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Tyrus is not Kemp, yet

getting rid of Ben Wallace was perfect timing, cause Noah is a taller version with a better offensive game. and i’m hoping Rose does help Tyrus improve. i can see Tyrus being a Kemp-type player. i was a huge Shawn Kemp fan growing up. but i think Kemp had a more polished offensive game. hopefully Tyrus can develop his, cause every time i see him shoot that spot-up jumper, i swear i cringe. at least Kemp hit that 18-foot jumper consistently, and he was pretty good back-to-the-basket. to me, it seems like Tyrus is at his best attacking the basket, cutting for dunks and alley-oops, almost like TC & CP3 in new orleans. if Tyrus can get it together, that is definitely a great combo with Rose.

and Hinrich has got to go. i hate to say that, cause i think he’s a good player. good defender, gritty, can shoot, but you gotta keep Gordon. that guy can score in bunches and he’s definitely the best shooter on the team. although i prefer him off the bench, hoping Thabo improves offensively.

by BULLieving in Miami on Jun 29, 2008 11:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll be discussing the Kemp/Tyrus comparison in a lengthy

fanpost that addresses everything you talked about and everything else that’s related to that comparison. I still need to put the finishing touches on it, but it should be published Monday or Tuesday.

by Scotter on Jun 30, 2008 1:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look forward to it..

Great article above also. Its up to your normal standard

"If you're not going to compete, then I'll dominate you." MJ

by Rankdog on Jun 30, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

can't wait

it’s definitely a comparison worthy of discussing in trying to project Tyrus, which right now i don’t know how to do.

by BULLieving in Miami on Jun 30, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did some statistical analysis prior to last year

And identified 11 comparables for Thomas. I’ve had Kemp and Antonio McDyess at the top of my comparables list for awhile, and while I do think there’s a good chance of TT developing to that level, his lack of success last season (which may certainly be a function of his limited playing time) reduces the liklihood of those outcomes. But I’m still optimistic.

Parental Advisory - Explicit Content

by Jivas on Jun 30, 2008 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

*ignores post*

waits for Rose to get 20/10/10 in the first year, because optimism makes you feel awesome until the games start

by Prevenge on Jun 29, 2008 11:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

hmm

not really what i wanted to hear..good article thou

Meet Us At Kinnick

by mahossa on Jun 30, 2008 8:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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