Hollinger on the Euros

His Euroleague stat translator (insider) has been very accurate over the past few years. It makes sense that it'd be a more reliable stat sample than the NCAA.

The reason this works is that there's a predictable relationship between a player's stats in the Euroleague -- the highest level of European basketball -- and what they'll be in the NBA. Crossing the Atlantic does the following to a player's results:

• Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent.

In the case of Danilo Gallinari, he projects to a PER of 13.21 -- pretty darn good for a 20-year-old. The caveat is that he did this in just 11 games for a bad team, AJ Milano, that won only three games. As a result he shot more than he would normally at the pro level, and likely a worse percentage. His projected numbers from Europe are 14.5 points per 40 minutes and 37.0 percent shooting; I'd expect the points to be lower and the percentage to be higher unless he's picked by a truly awful team (in a related story, the Clippers pick seventh).

This is a "Year 1" projection, as opposed to the "Year 3" projections I used for the college prospects, and once you factor in his age and growth potential you'd have to presume he'd be up around 15 or 16 by Year 3. If so, it would make Gallinari one of the top prospects in this year's draft, and his status as a likely selection between six and 10 seems reasonable.

Beyond that, there isn't much use for this tool in this year's draft, besides noting that Batum will bust. Everyone else either didn't play in the Euroleague, or aren't likely to come to the NBA and therefore won't be drafted.

There's also some interesting notes on already-drafted players like Tiago Splitter and David Andersen.

Finally, this gave me a chuckle:

I have Michael Beasley and Kevin Love as the two best players, followed by Derrick Rose, Joe Alexander and Darrell Arthur. Gallinari, Jerryd Bayless, Marreese Speights, Brook Lopez and D.J. Augustin round out my top 10, with Mario Chalmers and Roy Hibbert the next two names on the board. Since there's only about 12 guys in any draft who can play, those are the 12 I'm putting my money on.

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