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Rose vs Conley and the #5

  So there have been a ton of rumors about miami considering trading down in this year's draft and a bunch of teams in the top 10 considering trying to move up, to presumably to draft Beasley.  I would normally be ecstatic to not hear any of these rumors involving the Bulls, but now I am not so sure. 

  Rumor has it on ESPN, Link, that memphis is considering trading Mike Conley Jr (last year's #4 pick), Mike miller, and the #5 pick for Miami's #2 pick and Daequan cook.

  I don't know if Memphis will do this, since they were initially hoping to use Lowry instead of Conley in the trade, but this is a ton of assets to offer to acquire Beasley and I think the Bulls should contact  Memphis and consider trading down.  I really see the purpose of this trade mainly to acquire Conley and the #5, with Miller being just gravy (Gravy that shoots 42% from 3 point land, but gravy none the less).

  Both Conley and Rose are touted as being pure point guards, it's hard to compare them statistically because they were in very different offensive systems (pick/roll vs drive/kick), but they both played amazingly well, both got their teams to the NCAA finals (and lost), both were freshman, and both measured out similarly in the combine. 

  Rose is certainly the bigger of the two guards (~2in height, 4in standing reach, and 20lbs heavier), but Conley was actually able to bench 3 more reps than Rose's 10.  Interestingly both ran the 3/4 court sprint amazingly fast (Rose 3.05 vs conley 3.09), but both were slow (considering their sprints) in the lane agility test (Rose 11.69 vs Conley 11.63), and both have 40+in verticals. 

  If you're curious about how their freshman year statistics measure up (using pace adjusted statistics per 40 minutes), they suggest that Rose was the better scorer 19.5 vs 13.9, but both did it almost equally efficiently (TS% 56 vs 59%).  Rose turned the ball over 3.5 to Conley's 2.9, and was far from Conley's assist numbers 6.2 vs 7.9 (again I think this is less indicative of talent and more indicative of type of play, while turnovers might actually still be useful metrics). 

  I have posted a bunch of info on Conley and in no way do I think he'll be better than Rose, but I do think that Conley and the #5 pick will be more beneficial to the bulls than Rose alone.  The Bulls still could use a big man, and having the #5 pick will mean the Bulls either land Love, Lopez, or Mayo (if Minnesota and Seattle both choose to go big, probably unlikely). 

  If the argument against this is that the Bulls need a star, then at least based on the history (Draftexpress) of how players have done in the past chosen at various picks, the bulls still win.  The #1 pick has NOT become a star (29% of the time), while the #4 and #5 picks have not become stars (66 and 62% of the time respectively); keep reading.  But having 2 picks means the bulls do have a 12% chance (based on history) of acquiring 2 stars and a 40% chance that neither becomes a star.  I would take those odds any day, so I think argument is crap. (note: If you calculate the average number of stars to arise from the data, it is .72 for having picks 4 and 5, vs .71 for having pick 1)

  All of these thoughts are predicated on the idea that Memphis is actually considering trading Conley and the #5, but if they are the Bulls could fill a lot of holes.  They would add a pure point guard (Conley), a 3point shooter Miller, and probably a big man (Love is my hope, but I'd be okay with Lopez).

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Rose is worth more than

Conley and a backup forward/center.

by RogersPark Kris on Jun 24, 2008 10:01 PM CDT   0 recs

Yeah, this draft is pretty brutal outside of the top 2 IMO.

Rose is far more valuable than Conley and whoever the Bulls could get at 5. It’s not even close.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 24, 2008 10:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If I was Matt and a complete dick,

I’d immediately axe any fanpost like this. Ridiculous.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 24, 2008 10:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Disclaimer: I'm not saying Matt is a dick

That might have came off wrong. I’m saying that if I owned blogaball and I was a complete asshole, I’d delete any posts mentioning trading the #1 for anything less than a superstar.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 24, 2008 10:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't delete posts if I think they're dumb ideas

I’ll give Jamaicanpi credit in fact, this is more thought out than the average effort.

management sez: recommend fanposts/fanshots/comments! Click 'reply' when replying to a comment! Flag jerkfaces!

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 24, 2008 10:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I wasn't being totally serious

but Ozzie’s post about Kevin Love is pretty funny (and also true).

I do like that the thread starter is thinking outside the box; so for that, props to Jamaicanpi.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 24, 2008 10:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Am I the only Kevin Love fan?

When waiting for the draft lottery to come, I kept checking mock drafts with hopes that Love would make it to the Bulls.

The dude has game. He is the big, cloddy, ox-of-a-white-big-man that every team needs. He isn’t chiseled, but he is strong. In spite of his strength, the dude has touch on every shot. He not only has midrange game, he can hit the 3, and heck, he can hit full court shots for ya…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z2sFmrR7bc

His game is old school, and I love it (no pun intended).

If we can somehow manage to get Rose/Beasley and Love, I’d be geeking out like crazy.

by Syxx on Jun 24, 2008 11:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Why are you trying to assemble a 5 man roster from the draft?

This draft isn’t even that deep. Love was someone we would be happy with in the 5-9 range, we have the 1st pick. Who cares about him, Bayless, or any of those players. I do think Love is going to be a solid pro, but the Bulls should be looking to add size to back up Noah, and Love is helplessly small for center.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 25, 2008 10:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i like k love

after beasley he was the best big man in the country last year. oh i forgot about tyler. he was the 3rd best in the country.

by FUTURE12 on Jun 25, 2008 12:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Bulls can't afford to come away from this

without either Rose or Beasley.

You don’t use the #1 pick to become incrementally bettery. You use it to get a superstar.

Dum spiro spero! (While there is life, there’s hope!)--Leon Trotsky

by alec on Jun 24, 2008 10:20 PM CDT   0 recs

Ding, ding, ding.

Superstars win championships. Not a bunch of role players with no alpha dog.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 24, 2008 10:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

as much as I rag on cliche

I agree in this case. The Bulls already have a bunch of ‘good’ players.

management sez: recommend fanposts/fanshots/comments! Click 'reply' when replying to a comment! Flag jerkfaces!

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 24, 2008 10:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I'm not one for the same old, bland statements like that

but the Bulls are the ultimate “team of solid players with no superstar.” They need to shed this identity if they want to do any real damage in the future. The first thing Paxson can do, obviously is draft a guy like Rose or Beasley who can be THAT guy. It’s at least a step in the right direction. In my mind, you can’t trade this pick unless you’re getting a superstar in return. Anything else, don’t even consider it.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 24, 2008 11:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

good post

made me think about it but I still like to think the #1 pick is better than Miller, Conley and Love? We need a star and I dont see a star out of that bunch. Rose can be a top 3 player in the league in his prime.

I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Jun 24, 2008 10:26 PM CDT   0 recs

This was the first...

“We should trade our #1 pick for: ” That actually made me think about it. Because I do think Conley will play well, but if any of those players didn’t work out, it would look like a huge bust and terrible trade.

The Chicago Bulls aren’t going to take that kind of risk. If Rose doesn’t pan out, Pax will say “who knew” but if you make this trade and Conley doesn’t pan out Pax will say “who knew” and we will say, “Memphis knew, you jackass”

by kidronmusic on Jun 25, 2008 9:05 AM CDT   0 recs

agreed....

Rose could be a franchise player for 10-15 yrs…i dont see Conley like that

CHICAGO MANE!!!!

by YEP on Jun 25, 2008 9:08 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If you subout out Miller for Gay

then a deal can be talked about it, otherwise you hang up on Memphis.

by Devin47 on Jun 25, 2008 10:11 AM CDT   0 recs

Madd props rude boy.

I like the thought that you put into you trade scenario. I think Conley is a true PG, but I do not think that Love will even be as good as Drew Gooden. Mike Miller can shoot the 3, but not much else (taller, but less explosive Gordon). If the draft had a bit more depth like in the Lebron draft class, I would give it a go, because we could have still ended up with a Bosh or Wade.

This draft is weak after the top 3 or 4 and Rose or Beasly will be great. The deal would have to include Gay, which would allow us to trade Deng for a post player. Ehhh! I still do not like that purposal either. O.K, I would only trade the pick for Wade, Bosh, Kobe or Lebron straght up. Bigups 2 Jamrock!

Rose / Obama 08

by illwill on Jun 25, 2008 10:19 AM CDT   0 recs

Two things

1. Someone give me a really solid set of reasons why Rose projects better than Conley. Conley was highly touted last year and IIRC measured out pretty similarly to Rose. If I set aside the hype machine stuff for a moment, i’m not sure why we’d think they’re so different.

2. Suppose Beasley is sitting there at 5 anyway. The Heat don’t seem like they’re going to take him and the TWolves and Sonics don’t look like obvious candidates to take him. So maybe he falls?

by Sports2 on Jun 25, 2008 11:47 AM CDT   0 recs

Oh the Sonics are a very happy team if Beasley falls to them at 4

Durant and Beasley were good friends, and you could see how disappointed Durant was when they got the 4th pick at the Lottery. They are desperate for a 2nd scoring option to go with Durant, imagine a trio of Durant, Jeff Green, and Beasley?

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 25, 2008 11:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Right.

There’s no way Beasley gets past Seattle.

In fact, I wouldn’t mind seeing him there. think it would be funny if Seattle heads off the retchingly smug TrailBlazers at the pass on the way to becoming the next western power.

If the Bulls want a shot at Beasley they’ll have to doa deal with miami or Minnesota. The problem for the Bulls is that their attractive assets are not tradeable…and their tradeable assets are not that attractive.

Dum spiro spero! (While there is life, there’s hope!)--Leon Trotsky

by alec on Jun 25, 2008 2:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

1.

size

management sez: recommend fanposts/fanshots/comments! Click 'reply' when replying to a comment! Flag jerkfaces!

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 25, 2008 12:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I tend to agree on your Rose and Conley assessment.

aside from the bench press, Rose physically looks more imposing and the typical stronger NBA body similiar to Deron and Chris Paul.

But my guess is Conley will be an elite PG in the NBA also, I also believe the fans and the organization have been burnt and have negative feels towards shorter guards because of the players previously chosen. So that also rules against Conley, but it might be a wrong assessment in the long run.

by exult463 on Jun 25, 2008 12:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

he wont!!

CHICAGO MANE!!!!

by YEP on Jun 25, 2008 12:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Rose is ~2" taller and ~20 lbs heavier w/ those pretty similar measureables.

His wingspan is about > 2” greater and the standing reach is about 4” greater. The vertical, lane agility and bench are a little less while the 3/4 court sprint is a little more.

Seriously? You don’t understand how being the same speed but being that much bigger is an advantage? Really?

by tyger1147 on Jun 25, 2008 1:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sometimes, all you really need is the eye test...

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Jun 25, 2008 10:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

rose is bigger, has court vision is better and for everyone who says that rose doesn’t have a jump shot, have you seen conley’s shot?

by FUTURE12 on Jun 25, 2008 12:40 PM CDT   0 recs

This "no jump shot" thing

is really, really blown out of proportion in general. Rose isn’t Rondo, Conley or T. J. Ford out there. The Bulls said he shot it well in workouts…and this is one of those dudes who just works and works until he’s good at something. You’re absolutely right: Rose is the vastly better prospect.

Here’s how I’d do the deal: if we had a trade in place with Miami. This would go something along the lines of:

Conley and #5 for Rose.
Hinrich, Gooden, and #5 for Beasley.

Walkign away with Conley and Beasley would be acceptable. But we do need to add one of the two elite talents. Conley and Kevin Love…or whoever you get at 5…I just don’t want.

The poster formerly known as Freethefro.

by MPG on Jun 25, 2008 2:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Size is main difference

The Rose is bigger part is the main factor, and I think he’s a better shooter than Conley too. I think the court vision is stretch though…Conley’s a better passer.

I like both alot, but I like Rose better… although I do think the difference between the 2 is less than what everyone’s perception is right now.

by rb22 on Jun 25, 2008 3:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn't want to do this deal as proposed, but...

... what if we made that trade and then flipped #5 to Minnesota for the #3. Obviously, current players would have to be involved, but coming out of this draft with Conley, Beasley/Mayo and Mike Miller sounds like an OK haul to me. I want the Bulls to pick Rose as much an anyone, but as the original poster said, stardom is not guaranteed. Moreover, this team needs to improve in a number of areas and Rose alone will not solve all of the problems.

by Stay Chisel on Jun 25, 2008 1:50 PM CDT   0 recs

Anybody got the ESPN/Rose Cover?

Its going on my wall if we draft Rose

by Belize on Jun 25, 2008 2:27 PM CDT   0 recs

Conley is kinda like TJ Ford without as many injuries

And I’m starting to assume there is no way that Paxdorf will turn the potential to market the team around a popular local college player like Rose

/it’s not like a presidential candidate would have ever endorsed Eddy Curry

by KentuckyBullsFan on Jun 26, 2008 12:40 PM CDT   0 recs

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