The mandatory second-thoughts about the sure-thing #1 are creeping in. From Chad Ford's latest post...
Think you've got the Rose-Beasley debate figured out? One respected NBA general manager who's drafting in the second half of the first round said the Bulls and virtually everyone else is getting it wrong.
"Michael Beasley is far and away the best player in this draft," the GM said. "He's going to dominate in this league. How could you pass on him? I know everyone is talking about character this and character that, but come on, he's not a bad kid."
As for Rose, the GM says he thinks he's overrated: "Derrick Rose is a good player, I get that. But he's not a franchise player. I don't think people are getting with Rose what they think they're getting. He's athletic and plays really hard. But he has just decent court vision and can't take over a game offensively."
When asked about the Heat possibly passing on Beasley at No. 2, the GM said, "It's a joke. He's so much better than anything the Heat are going to get offered. I don't understand it."
I think the general consensus here is that Rose can score with the best of them, play above average defense, and do it with top notch drive and work ethic. And I think most of us believe he can take over games offensively - he showed it in the second half of last season.
But his court vision hasn't been talked about enough, and I think the GM has a point. I went to U of I, the same year as Deron Williams. Even when he averaged just 4.5apg his freshman year, everyone at our school knew he was going to be a great passer because a few times each game he'd thread the needle and make you go "damnnnn, how did he see that?"
I don't get that feeling with Rose though. I saw 8-9 Memphis games this year, and I don't remember a single highlight-worthy pass. It seems like all the Rose backers (me included) are holding out hope that he'll turn Tyrus into a dunking/scoring machine, but if that were true, then why did Joey Dorsey's scoring average drop from 8.5ppg last year to 6.9ppg this year? Especially against all the midgets in Conference USA...
The more I think about it, Rose isn't the next Deron or Paul - his court vision isn't close to theirs. His game is closer to Stephon Marbury's, though he should be a lot more efficient and a lot less incestual. 22 points and 8 assists will make him a perennial all-star and maybe more, but something tells me he's not the make-everybody-else-better player that we're expecting him to be.
(I'd still take him, though.)