Here's a draft analysis from Wages of Wins Journal.
by Tim S. on May 28, 2008 10:23 AM CDT
23 comments
Short version for the Bulls: draft Beasley, and look for some sleepers in the second round.
The Wages of Wins statistic is controversial, but interesting. It tends to de-emphasize scoring and highly value other statistics -- notably rebounding, shooting efficiency, assists, low turnover rate, etc. The verdict on Rose is neutral because he came on strong in the second half of the season, but did not play well in the first half of the season. Also, Beasley is rated better than Oden or Durant. So is Kevin Love! Anyway, it's a good conversation starter.
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the starters or the resulting conversation?
by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 28, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
who? me? I never said I had a positive influence.
Maybe it’s because I read the Starting Five and Mariotti within the past 48 hours. Just because something is perceived to be polarizing (WoW doesn’t have to be), doesn’t mean it’s a good conversation starter. The whole ‘I’ll make sure someone will passionately agree or disagree’ theme is tired, and what it does start is not a conversation.
Not that I blame Tim S., but I’ve had enough of it, and enough of WoW wackiness. Berri had a good idea, then took the box score, and himself way too seriously.
What's your beef with
World of Warcraft?
"If you're not going to compete, then I'll dominate you." MJ
Just as I thought.
Kevin Love is the second-best prospect in the draft according to WoW. Over-emphasizes rebounds, I think.
Your forgetting
The importance of a big man who possibly one day will need a double team. I mean as a Bulls fan you should know about that well maybe not since we havent had one of those since the retiring years of Artis Gilmore.
How dare you negate the importance of Will Purdue
Rusty Longley v 2.0
by Ozzie Montana on May 28, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Nick Fazekas?
I was interested to see how WoW draft predictions had performed in the past. You can follow the link at the bottom of the page to “2007 NBA Draft Preview – One Year Later”.
The three top players (++ rating) by WoW last season were Nick Fazekas, Stephane Lasme, and Rashad Jones-Jennings. They were rated ahead of Oden, Durant, Horford, Noah, Julian Wright, Morris Almond, and our own Aaron Gray, who all earned a + rating. I couldn’t find any WoW predictions from 2006 to see how they rated Brandon Roy versus Aldridge, Thomas, et al.
Fazekas, Lasme, Jones-Jennings & Beasley, Love, Speights. I think I’d take 27 or so of the current NBA GMs over that rating system. It may be more effective than Kevin McHale.
by BullsFanInSeattle on May 28, 2008 1:45 PM CDT reply actions
Here's the self-critique of last year's projections.
Strength of schedule matters. This year’s projections were tweaked accordingly.
The problem with the WoW analysis...
...outside of the obvious issues with their valuation of players (overvaluing rebounds, for one), is that all they’re doing is identifying which players were the best players in college last year, NOT which players will be the best players in the NBA.
What I’m waiting for is an update on some of the published forecasting systems for this year’s draft class. While John Hollinger’s is the most well-known, there was another produced by 82games.com a couple of years ago.
I have to assume that some (hopefully, most) NBA teams have developed similar models for their own use, although given some of the remaining inefficiencies in drafting either this hasn’t happened, or the decision-makers don’t yet have the ability to make use of the information.
Parental Advisory - Explicit Content
Such a model wouldn't necessarily inform the Rose-Beasley decision
But it would be huge in helping to determine if Kevin Love can play in the NBA. I’m a huge fan of Kevin Love, but if a forecasting model like Hollinger’s were to rate him as a bust, I wouldn’t touch him in the top 10. (FWIW, I do think he’ll rate well, but am very interested to see the system output).
The models also do a great job at identifying sleepers – again, not so much the WoW analysis, but the true FORECASTING models.
Parental Advisory - Explicit Content
beasley a no no
draft rose
trade hughes or gordon or hinrich.
the bulls are the only ones who are thinking that they need a big man.i say they’ve been thining too much about this problem for years.
what if they had an elite PG the last 5 seasons?
what could Deng, Tyson Chandler, Tyrus, Gray, Gooden have become?
what if remove that mentality for now and try to focus on how to use all of the talents this team has rather than putting a big man and watch an experiment happen.
the big man=offense experiment might fail. they haven’t even hired a coach.
who knows?maybe beasley in the future will fail?rise?
rose the same?
whatever.
i just really think that using the most out of this bulls team and great defense will solve all the problem that this team has.
character precedes chemistry.
and great chemistry means great communication.
great communication produces excellent defense.
excellent defense.
instant offense.
You are like...
James Joyce and Oprah’s lovechild.
?
who is that child?
can we get back to the bulls?
It is a speculative child…
although there is a Hindu belief that by naming something in this world, a nascent spiritual archetype forms in the next, which endeavors to manifest itself in the material world—a process that will gradually fade as the memory of the mention fades.
I agree with you. The talent on this team has been hugely underutilized. Not only is Rose the better pick outright, but he’ll have a factorial effect on the talent already here.
Dum spiro spero! (While there is life, there’s hope!)--Leon Trotsky
"what would Gray have become?"
a 20/10 guy?
"Rose doesn't do anything at a special level."
--californiachicagoan
by Orlando Woolridge on May 28, 2008 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I would have said Chuck Daley and Maya Angelou's lovechild, but whatever.
So I can only assume that WoW would have had “Psycho T” going #1 if he were available…
No...Pyscho T is a horribly overrated player
Check out the detailed statistics over at Draft Express – he’s not rated a top-10 college player.
Parental Advisory - Explicit Content
A little new to this
But can someone explain to me why most PGs & SGs seem to be projected as draft failures? Or am I just defective?
They are
That whole combo guard deal (All a combo guard is a sexy way to dress up your short SG). I mean look at JJ, Morrison, Juan Dixon, Mateen Cleaves all had outstanding college careers and ask Cleaves your lucky to just ride the bench. Size translates…. If you dont have the size you have to have the hops. I mean look at JJ and what he did in college he couldnt find an open shot in the NBA because his defender knows that if he thinks of driving hes lost the opposite goes for Cleaves. Triple threat effectiveness thats what to look for if he cant shoot, drive the lane and pass your done.
Of the players you listed
only 1 is a combo guard. Adam Morrison doesn’t even play guard. And he’s 6’8.
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