It's all Noc's fault
[ed. note - I was thinking of writing something similar this week, so I both damn and praise Sports2 for this work. Of course, it's not "Noc's fault", but Paxson's for overpaying for intangibles.
Beyond the inherent problem with a tax-conscious team paying for a bench guy, there's the on-court issue that with Nocioni, any coach will be tempted to play small. -Matt]
I'm sure this will go over well here, but when I was thinking about the Bulls today, it occurred to me that our major problems seemed to start with resigning Nocioni and our solutions probably start with getting rid of him.
If they'd simply let Noc go to Memphis, or better yet, managed to get a future pick, they would have:
- Made finances less of an issue when it comes to re-signing Ben and Lou, and thus, even if they hadn't signed extensions, there wouldn't be quite the same context there is now (arguing about a rapidly diminishing fund pool when Noc is sitting there with more than he deserves).
Our current players aren't morons. I think they saw the bad decisions of the past couple years themselves, saw the implications for themselves, and became distracted. At this point, you've got a situation that's feeding on itself. Everyone looks around and wonders if they're going to be here or even what their role is. That's understandable, but at the same time it has to be distracting, even for players that are pros who work hard.
And resigning Nocioni was a big part of that. We paid him way too much and that's figured into everyone else's expectations of what they're worth(if "Noc is worth that much, I must be worth even more") and what's available to go around (everyone knows there's less).
- Moving him would have forced us to sink or swim with Thabo and Tyrus. The prevailing sentiment, I think, is that they would have gotten their feet under them quite a bit earlier, and we might have pulled out of our early season funk. Obviously no sure thing, but still...
- It would have left enough luxury tax maneuvering room to consider something like the Gasol trade. In short, more flexibility.
Likewise, I think our solutions for the future begin with getting Nocioni off the books....

Consider our overpaid guys. Nocioni, Hinrich and Hughes all, to some extent, are pretty obviously overpaid. While I "like" him better than Hughes out of these guys, Nocioni is clearly the most expendable. If he goes then you've cleared up the problem of Thabo and Tyrus' playing time to a large degree. We'd be left with
1- Hinrich, Gordon
2- Hughes, Gordon, Thabo
3- Deng, Thabo
4- Gooden, Tyrus
5- Noah Gooden
Which is a somewhat workable looking rotation. What's more important is that Noc and Kirk's contracts are a lot longer than Hughes'. We're in a position to simply wait Hughes out. Even if we re-sign Gordon and Deng, we'll be under the cap by a pretty significant amount in 2010 if we can move Kirk or Noc. Thus, why expend an asset (like a draft pick) to move Hughes off the books? If we're going to use a draft pick to move someone, it ought to be Nocioni or Hinrich.
Now, would it be better to move Nocioni or Hinrich? Well, look again at the rotation. While Kirk has been downright awful this year, the truth of the matter is he's still the best PG material we've got. In fact, he's the only PG material we've got. Move him and we're looking at Gordon, Thabo, Hughes, and a rookie? That's not good. Plus you've still got the frontcourt logjam issue.
So bottom line is Nocioni should be the top priority to be traded. He's a higher priority than Hughes because his contract is longer and thus screws up the potential for cap space, and he's a higher priority than Hinrich because he's simply much more replaceable.
FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
0 recs |
123
comments
Comments
I haven't read this yet
Beyond the inherent problem with a tax-conscious team paying for a bench guy, there's the issue that with Nocioni, any coach will be tempted to play small.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 9, 2008 11:24 AM CDT 0 recs
Haven't you been saying this...
Nocioni's a 7th-man on a good team, an 8th on a great team. There's no way Gordon and Deng are only worth 25% more than him, especially on this team, and considering their ages and abilities. Paxson set their market when he offered Nocioni's contract.
by tyger1147 on
Apr 9, 2008 11:53 AM CDT
up
0 recs
as much as I hate when people 'brag'
Yes, I've been consistently hating this contract from the outset..
Pax could've assumed that he'd still get Joe Smith (or someone like him) for a 2-year deal after letting Noc go.
As Sports2 said, Thabo gets Noc's minutes at the 3, Tyrus gets them at the 4, with Smith filling in (and then some after Skiles panicked 7 games into the season)
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 12:31 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Shouldn't be all "Paxson's" fault?
I kind of think we are lucky that it is Noc who has this contract. He might actually be tradable right now and there are a few teams that need someone of his position. And Noc would be lucky to be traded off this sinking ship. Same with Hinrich, who I don't think is terribly over paid and more tradable than others on our roster. It isn't like we are giving Duhon that kind of money and besides, doesn't Hinrich's contract decrease as it goes anyway? It might seem more attractive to people if we try to include Hinrich in a trade.
To me Hughes is the thorn in our side as far as trading goes. We can always wait him out, but at the same time I am afraid the future coach will give him lots of minutes or that he will demand lots of minutes and be cranky if he doesn't get it. And if we wait him out we got that log jam that I am afraid will result in Gordon gone. Which would mean we'd need to get someone else who can give us 20 pts a night...I actually trust Gordon more than Hughes for that.
by cranscape on Apr 9, 2008 11:46 AM CDT 0 recs
I've emailed Sam Smith a handful of times
Nocioni is even more superfluous than Hughes with Gooden, Thomas, and Sefolosha all being cheaper, just as good or better forwards.
by hscs on
Apr 9, 2008 11:56 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Maybe you're right...
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 12:14 PM CDT
up
0 recs
keeping in mind
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 12:19 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Duhon's a FA
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 12:31 PM CDT
up
0 recs
unload, walk, jettison...
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 12:32 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Attn Duhon:
by bullhockey on
Apr 9, 2008 1:31 PM CDT
up
0 recs
i agree
He painted his own self into a corner by signing Noce to such a dumb deal (dumb for the Bulls). If nothing else, I would think that at least ONE out of the two of Deng and Gordon would have been resigned this past summer.
Does anybody remember exactly when Jim Paxson came aboard? He was known for mis-managing things in Cleveland. Can we blame him too? John Paxson started off strong, but the last couple of years he has been making some critical errors.
by NormVanBeer on
Apr 9, 2008 12:03 PM CDT
up
0 recs
And I think Noc
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 12:17 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Indeed it is on Paxson
As for Noc, I think he's slightly more tradable than Wallace was or than Hughes would be, but the amount of value you get coming back is still not very good.
For example, I think we'd have to include the pick in order to move Hughes for a shorter contract. I think there are a fair number of teams that might take Noc without requiring the pick and still give us a return I'd find acceptable.
Of course, that's because I'm willing to not take very much in return. I'd be pretty willing, in fact, to take most any player that had only two years left on his deal and wasn't a complete ass clown. The "return" on the trade would be the cap room in a summer with a lot of kick ass free agents.
For example, I think any of the following might meet that requirement:
- To Miami for Mark Blount or Udonis Haslem (giving us an upgrade over Aaron Gray as the 4th big)
- To Minnesota for Antoine Walker (NG after this year)
- To Seattle for Earl Watson (a real PG, although not an especially good one).
- To Indiana for Marquis Daniels or Jeff Foster and Filler (I'm sure the Pacers would do this with Daniels, since he's not got a very good image here in town and isn't a very good player, although this is the only one I'm not sure I'd do. Daniels just adds to the 2/3 logjam and puts Thabo further down the bench).
- To New York for Malik Rose, who's an expiring contract. God knows the Knicks could use someone like Noc, and Rose, while not good, is a pro's pro and and a beefy guy who could fill in the depth chart up front.
by Sports2 on
Apr 9, 2008 12:25 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I'd feel bad
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 12:31 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Hughes would love New York
by piccolomair on
Apr 9, 2008 12:34 PM CDT
up
0 recs
With Larry Walsh running things
by Sports2 on
Apr 9, 2008 12:56 PM CDT
up
0 recs
yea
by Yibs on
Apr 9, 2008 4:23 PM CDT
up
0 recs
LOL!
by bullhockey on
Apr 10, 2008 11:43 AM CDT
up
0 recs
you said
i never want to see the day that walker is in a bulls uniform. EW.
by Jaina on
Apr 9, 2008 12:36 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I don't expect he'd actually wear one
by Sports2 on
Apr 9, 2008 12:50 PM CDT
up
0 recs
why?
by Zac23 on Apr 9, 2008 12:09 PM CDT 0 recs
What player
by sue369 on
Apr 9, 2008 12:20 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I agree.
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 12:29 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Seeing as Kirk
by sue369 on
Apr 9, 2008 12:58 PM CDT
up
0 recs
There are a number of
by cranscape on
Apr 9, 2008 1:03 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Nor are there any potential draftees
by Sports2 on
Apr 9, 2008 12:49 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Be careful what you say
by snley on
Apr 9, 2008 12:58 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Let's say the Bulls wind up
I'm pretty sure we don't have anyone on the roster that would get us far enough up to pick Beasley or Rose, but could we get up far enough to go after Brooks Lopez (a big that already knows how to score) at 4 or 5?
by alec on
Apr 9, 2008 1:25 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Gordon and Deng can't be traded
I could actually see some team likely in that range (New York, Minnesota, LA Clippers) considering Kirk + the pick because they all seem to need PGs. But also remember they'd have to send us back a contract, and I'd imagine they'd want to send back a crummy one.
Like, the Knicks might take Kirk + #8 for # 4 or 5, but what's that gonna get us?
I honestly don't think Lopez is a very good idea with both Tyrus and Noah in the fold, and if we give up Kirk to get him we become even less balanced in the backcourt.
And I don't see Mayo or Bayless as guys that it's worth doing that for. I have no real sense of what the Italian kid brings to the table.
by Sports2 on
Apr 9, 2008 1:48 PM CDT
up
0 recs
although...
by leeac on Apr 9, 2008 12:38 PM CDT 0 recs
Hindsight is 20/20
Nocioni was one of my favorite players. He consistently would play hard, seemed to not take as many bonehead shots, and if memory serves 3 years ago against Miami he was dominating in the playoffs. After years of the depressing Floyd-Cartwright eras it was nice to see the team succeed and to lose one of the 4 players that got us back to the playoffs would have been upsetting.
But we are where we are. Paxson has a lot to unload. What we can get back is the better question. Everyone wants to trade Kirk but we're not going to get a better point guard back in that trade, so we go with a rookie pg in the draft? Lots of issues to work out.
by bullsfaninla on Apr 9, 2008 1:24 PM CDT 0 recs
No one is discounting what Chapu brings
by Ozzie Montana on
Apr 9, 2008 1:37 PM CDT
up
0 recs
The result of mis-evaluating his roster
by messwiththebull on Apr 9, 2008 1:47 PM CDT 0 recs
messwiththebull
by exult463 on
Apr 9, 2008 5:42 PM CDT
up
0 recs
you know you're on to something
by bullshooter on
Apr 9, 2008 9:05 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Going forward we need to be vigilant about
by chgobr on Apr 9, 2008 2:16 PM CDT 0 recs
Trade Machine is pretty much out of commission
by snley on
Apr 9, 2008 2:20 PM CDT
up
0 recs
why would miami want longer term contracts
by bullshooter on
Apr 9, 2008 2:28 PM CDT
up
0 recs
It'll be
by jpchi on
Apr 9, 2008 2:39 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Marion is a problem
by chgobr on
Apr 9, 2008 4:12 PM CDT
up
0 recs
But still the question is Why?
---
Great diary, BTW. Glad the playoff chase is officially over, even if the Bulls won't give me my money back for the first two playoff rounds (it's a credit towards next season, but I'm not happy about it). Pax has one year to fix this if he wants me to re-up again next offseason.
by Moses Taylor on
Apr 9, 2008 5:48 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I think the only trade with Noce
by messwiththebull on
Apr 9, 2008 2:51 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Blazer's might have interest
by exult463 on
Apr 9, 2008 5:47 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I'm still for taking the best shooter/scorer...
by tyger1147 on Apr 9, 2008 2:21 PM CDT 0 recs
Orrr....
That's probably the biggest risk/reward strategy right there, while still keeping afloat. They aren't too good the next two years, but they probably aren't horrible either if they get a good coach. They then have the contracts, and maybe the assets to make the move for James while still having a good supporting cast.
by tyger1147 on
Apr 9, 2008 2:30 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Noc and Hughes
by bullshooter on
Apr 9, 2008 2:32 PM CDT
up
0 recs
For much of the year
And lest we all forget, TT started the year ahead of him on the depth chart, and recently has been getting more burn than Noc is, so the fact that Noc was used as a crutch shouldn't be used against him.
by bullshooter on Apr 9, 2008 2:25 PM CDT 0 recs
for much of the year
Front-loaded or not, a 5 year deal?? Come on. You really want to pay a 29-yr old reserve who's most important assets are "energy" and "passion" for that long? If Paxson was really looking at him as a trade-chip, as you say, then don't you think he would have at least signed him to less than five? A 3-yr, $21 million deal looks better to me than a 5 yr, $38 million deal (or whatever it was that he got).
No matter how it's spun, Paxson knee-jerked at Memphis' slight courtship of Noce and it completely blew up in his face. I say blew up because now Noce looks worse than what the rest of the core guys looked like at the start of the season. Now he's left holding the pieces trying to figure out exactly how he got in this mess.
Noce started high, went lower, and now completely looks putrid. Everyone else started putrid and at least returned to mediocrity.
by NormVanBeer on
Apr 9, 2008 2:42 PM CDT
up
0 recs
They are the offense off of the bench
by bullshooter on
Apr 9, 2008 2:48 PM CDT
up
0 recs
there's a chance
Memphis turned down a Nocioni-included package, likely for that reason. Sure, they're especially cheap, but most 'rebuilding' teams don't want guys like Nocioni clogging up their cap.
Hindsight may get credit, but Pax is partially judged on foresight. I can't stand when media says "well I didn't hear anybody criticizing the move then...", as if we're held to the same standard as the freaking GM. Although, that point is moot here since I was against re-signing Nocioni then :-p
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 2:55 PM CDT
up
0 recs
just think
by bullshooter on
Apr 9, 2008 3:10 PM CDT
up
0 recs
another hit against Noc's 'worth'
But now, Pax has another chunky piece of expiring money in Gooden. Plus Hinrich (who also signed a frontloaded deal) is now more firmly on the tradeable list.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 3:19 PM CDT
up
0 recs
This Nocioni rant...
by tyger1147 on
Apr 9, 2008 3:31 PM CDT
up
0 recs
yeah, the passion of Nocioni
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 3:43 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Sure
by messwiththebull on
Apr 9, 2008 6:35 PM CDT
up
0 recs
"shouldn't be held against him"
As in, Paxson should've seen that Nocioni would potentially be used as a crutch. And judging by the contract he gave Noc, Pax did see it and actually thought of it as a positive.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 3:03 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Irony...
<src img=http://www.nba.com/media/bulls/nocioni1_080409.jpg>
by 1958ChiTown on Apr 9, 2008 2:32 PM CDT 0 recs
Well, that didn't work.
by 1958ChiTown on
Apr 9, 2008 2:35 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I was attempting to do this...
I reversed the HTML command. I am an internet failure.
by 1958ChiTown on
Apr 9, 2008 2:44 PM CDT
up
0 recs
wow
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 2:56 PM CDT
up
0 recs
At least the have a Hungry Heart
by Goostafer on
Apr 9, 2008 3:08 PM CDT
up
0 recs
The Hornets are the best
NO has a young, thin bench which I think will lead to a 2nd round exit in the playoffs this year. Therefore in the offseason they will want to add some depth to the bench. While Chandler and West are good starters, they don't really have any quality backup big men. Julian Wright needs to bulk up to play the 4 spot. Chris Anderson? Hilton Armstrong? Pass.
Enter a package starring Nocioni. He is playoff tested and will do the dirty work. Plus on the offensive end, he'll be another shooter for CP3 to pass too.
Contract wise, they don't have any expiring contracts. However, Mike James ($6 mil x 2 years), Mo Pete ($6 x 3 years), and Rasul Butler ($3.9 x 2 years) all have shorter contracts than Nocioni. None of those players play much either, so NO would be able to keep their core players together for at least 2 more years. The Bulls would get some crappy contracts and players in return, but they come off the books sooner.
The only downside I could see is that CP3 is due for an extension before the 2010/11 season. However, that season Peja's playoff disappearing body turns into a $15 million expiring contract.
by shoryuken on Apr 9, 2008 3:04 PM CDT 0 recs
not a bad idea
New Orleans is tax-conscious and have to re-sign Chris Paul, so they may be open to a long-term contract in Noc (especially if it decreases) if it means they save more yearly.
For instance, in 2009/2010, and Chris Paul's in the first year of his max deal...Noc is making $7.5m, and James+Butler's making $10.4m.
although, uh, the Bulls are trying to avoid the Tax as well. I'm assuming that you could flip a James/Butler contract easier in a later deal, however.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 9, 2008 3:16 PM CDT
up
0 recs
yeah sorry
by shoryuken on
Apr 9, 2008 3:38 PM CDT
up
0 recs
By the way, I really believe the woes of the Bulls
Some of that can be blamed on the players themselves, but most of the culpability falls on the franchise.
They traded Eddy Curry for two lottery picks. They used those lottery picks on Tyrus and Noah, Once the two kids were drafted, they let them languish. Meanwhile, Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich all regressed this season, which is also a reflection of the way the franchise treats its players.
by 1958ChiTown on Apr 9, 2008 3:35 PM CDT 0 recs


