Open Game Thread #76: Bulls verses Washington Wizards
[Thanks to chgobr for tonight's game preview. -Matt]
The Thursday Cleveland game exposed my emotional fragility. Of course I know losing solidifies our chances for the 9th pick as well as maintains hope that Charlotte makes up 1½ games and we get the 8th pick. However, I couldn't control myself. I rooted for the Bulls to win and enjoyed it when they won. I am ashamed of myself. I wonder if this problem will persist tonight. I'm also worried New Jersey's ineptitude may overcome ours.
Bullshooter, despite overwhelming odds, in his Cleveland game preview attempted to convince us to watch. The game thread received almost 300 comments so I guess he succeeded (or was it the rare Bulls win?). Let me try to excite you about tonight's game.
Here is what I'm looking at tonight:
1. Despite disdain for our dead-man-walking coach we seem to be playing better. The "Czar" Fratello repeatedly pointed out how well he thought the Bulls were playing, particularly in the first quarter. My head is splitting trying to figure out how to improve this team.
2. Larry Hughes is an enigma. Poor shot selection, risky and/or matador defense that leads to easy points is interwoven with offensive bursts and periods of excellent defense that can carry a team. His contract makes him difficult to move. Can the right coach make him into consistent, valuable contributor? He seems to have the talent, but does he have the brains?
3. Eddie Jordan has done a terrific job with this team. How did he get this team to buy into playing defense? Riley thinks he has done a great job .
4. We get to evaluate Arenas. Arenas came back on Wednesday against Milwaukee at home and Washington lost. He played 20 minutes, had 17 points, 4 TOs and 2 assists. Last night against Miami he again played 20 minutes, had 13 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds and 1 TO. Is he really better or will his knees deteriorate and someone will be stuck with a horrible, unmovable, contract?
5. Attributing our Thursday win to James bad back minimizes the excellent job Thabo and Noah did defensively. Thabo and Noah provide 2008-9 optimism.
6. With all our Ben Gordon grumblings who on our team can make big 4th quarter shots better than BG? When he is hot he is fun to watch. When Hughes is hot other teams cannot just focus on BG. This makes BG more dangerous. What-do-we-do with BG adds to my off-season confusion.
7. Who on this blog didn't love the Corpse missing a key dunk Wednesday at crunch-time? The audible groan from the Cleveland crowd was music to my ears(as a smile emerges on my face)?
208 days until opening night.
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by VivaLosToros on Apr 5, 2008 11:17 AM CDT 0 recs
Nice open thread preview up at
Personally, although I enjoy seeing the highlights of some of the crazy shots he hits, I don't think I'd enjoy a whole season of full games of Gil. On the other hand, since it would almost certainly involve a trade of Kirk to get him here, I guess I'd be off watching the Wiz next season. ;)
As for tonight, I'd kind of like to see the guys have at least one 3 game winning streak this year, and with the unexpected win on Thursday and the Heat coming next Tuesday, this would seem to be the best (only?) chance for that. It will be interesting to see what Larry does after Thursday's big game as well.
Of course, with Kansas playing at the same time, I'll be back and forth between the games. I'm really hoping for 2 wins, but if I can only get one? Well, Bulls aren't in it anyway, right? (Go Jayhawks!)
by wjb1492 on Apr 5, 2008 3:51 PM CDT 0 recs
Thanks wjb1492 - I added it to
by chgobr on
Apr 5, 2008 4:06 PM CDT
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Kansas better not lose
by NittanyBull on
Apr 5, 2008 7:37 PM CDT
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Put away the Top Ramen!
by wjb1492 on
Apr 5, 2008 10:41 PM CDT
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No chance at making this
Nice intro, chgobr. While the quality of Bulls basketball has gone to crap this year, its good to see the BaBers are still churning out solid previews!
But seriously. Derek Rose. Kevin Love. Russel Westbrook! Uhoh, I hear Matt coming...
by Freethefro on Apr 5, 2008 4:18 PM CDT 0 recs
actually
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 5, 2008 4:41 PM CDT
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Rose is filthy good
by Illini15 on
Apr 5, 2008 7:19 PM CDT
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Stuck at work...
by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 5, 2008 7:33 PM CDT 0 recs
Khalid...
by BG74EVER on
Apr 5, 2008 8:33 PM CDT
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wow. none taken, i guess?
get ready baby cuz the BGTrain is headed ur way
by BG74EVER on
Apr 5, 2008 9:02 PM CDT
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I am listening to it
I know of places to watch it after the fact, but not live unless you have a subscription.
by cranscape on
Apr 5, 2008 9:03 PM CDT
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hey look
by bullshooter on Apr 5, 2008 8:58 PM CDT 0 recs
he must have heard all the discussions
Then hinrich hit a jumper sometime after this play, it was a jumper that got us within one point of washington (after both teams ran a fast break, wizards were the only ones who scored on thier second fast break) Hinrich walked the ball up staring at boylan if he wanted a time out (failing our own fast break yet letting the wizards get two going, and scoring on the second must call for a time out in hinrichs book) Boylan simply shook his head no, so kirk walked up and hit a jumper....Funk talked about kirk staring at boylan for that time out, then hitting the jumper after boylan said no.
Sorry i just wanted to banter about the two good kirk plays i heard....i wonder if they were the only ones....well onto the boxscores and game recaps to find out what happened since this place is dead.
by piccolomair on
Apr 6, 2008 12:10 AM CDT
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Noah vs Haywood
by bullshooter on Apr 5, 2008 9:11 PM CDT 0 recs
BG had 5 times as many...
by Khalid El-Amin on
Apr 5, 2008 10:06 PM CDT
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Not that I want them to win
by bullshooter on Apr 5, 2008 9:26 PM CDT 0 recs
OOOOOOOMMMMMMFFFFFFFFGGGGGGGGGG
by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:40 PM CDT 0 recs
wait... what the hell jsut hapnd??
by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:42 PM CDT 0 recs
Ha!
by cranscape on
Apr 6, 2008 3:47 PM CDT
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whoa shit this place is dead
WHEN WE GOT OUTREBOUNDED 53-28?? (not including team reb)
like 4 guards when we need rebounds most??? not that tyrus did much, he only had 1... still wtf.
fun to watch him make a 3 though.
by Jaina on Apr 5, 2008 10:32 PM CDT 0 recs
wow, glad I missed this one
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 5, 2008 11:12 PM CDT
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for real
well, i missed the other time a 4-guard lineup made an appearance.
by Jaina on
Apr 5, 2008 11:18 PM CDT
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53-28? Holy shit!
by NBA Observer on
Apr 6, 2008 2:36 PM CDT
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Ya know something
by sue369 on Apr 5, 2008 11:45 PM CDT 0 recs
you couldn't be more right
Red likes his big men slow and immobile. Just like he was. Just like Gray is.
by MarketMaker on
Apr 6, 2008 6:24 PM CDT
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Holy shit
by Ozzie Montana on Apr 6, 2008 12:19 AM CDT 0 recs
tyrus/noah tandem
by Sambossanova on Apr 6, 2008 4:30 AM CDT 0 recs
Or just get Noah on steroids
by Ozzie Montana on
Apr 7, 2008 12:23 AM CDT
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if it means less Aaron Gray
Nocioni for Rasho? He's expiring......
Przybilla has a long-term deal and is hurt quite often.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 7, 2008 1:46 PM CDT
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gray
by Sambossanova on
Apr 7, 2008 3:47 PM CDT
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30-some comments?
Anyway, thought this was interesting:
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708CHI.HTM
Shows that despite youth, Tyrus and Noah are pretty good. Ben Gordon, not so much. Griffin's minutes are either too small a sample size, or he's better than average. I'm going with the former.
by cubbybear on Apr 7, 2008 2:13 AM CDT 0 recs
Yeah, O.K.
Garbage.
by Khalid El-Amin on
Apr 7, 2008 2:22 AM CDT
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No, you just have to
:)
by Bass on
Apr 7, 2008 8:45 AM CDT
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there are some intense concepts at work
by hscs on
Apr 7, 2008 9:00 AM CDT
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Hey, apparently not everyone
Unless you're willing to interpret KEA's post as saying that "Khyrapa" is the Bulls best (ex)-player in garbage time this season.
I for one am not willing to give him this kind of benefit of the doubt...
by Bass on
Apr 7, 2008 1:02 PM CDT
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Khryapa tore it up in garbage minutes
by bullshooter on
Apr 7, 2008 9:00 AM CDT
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My fav stat, just updated from 82games.com
Noah +5,4
Thabo +3,9
Thomas +3,0
Noc +2,6
Gray -0,3
Duh -0,4
Hughes -0,7
Deng -3,4
Gooden -3,4
Goron -7,1
Noah's numbers are down. I blame this on extended minutes with Gooden, Hughes and Deng.
And the five best on the list (who incidentally kicked Denvers butt after the trade...) are yet to see significant (if any) court time together.
Seeing as I don't particularly want to see us win any more games I don't mind. I do however find it SOMEWHAT odd that not a single person on the coaching staff sees this. Whatever, just a few games left now...
by Bass on
Apr 7, 2008 2:01 PM CDT
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ugh
by hscs on
Apr 7, 2008 2:11 PM CDT
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This stat is better
by Bass on
Apr 7, 2008 2:28 PM CDT
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the Roland Rating uses net per 100
by hscs on
Apr 7, 2008 2:34 PM CDT
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I find the Roland Rating
by Parrotman on
Apr 7, 2008 3:06 PM CDT
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Link to the formula for the Roland-rating, please.
:)
by Bass on
Apr 7, 2008 3:13 PM CDT
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then listen to Dan Rosenbaum
The most common approach is to compute plus/minus ratings that measure how point differentials change when a particular player is in the game versus when he is not. Hockey has used such a plus/minus system for years, but Roland Beech of 82games.com is the first to make these data available for the NBA. The logic of this approach is straightforward; teams should perform better when their good players are playing versus when they are not. The intuitive appeal of this approach has not escaped teams' attention, and my understanding is that most teams use plus/minus ratings to some extent. However, these "unadjusted" plus/minus ratings do not measure the value of a player per se; they measure the value of the player relative to the players that substitute in for him. In addition, there are differences in the quality of players that players play with and against. A weak starter on a team with exceptionally good starters (relative to bench players) will generally get a very good unadjusted plus/minus rating - regardless of their actual contribution to the team.
Thus, a better measure of player value would "adjust" these plus/minus ratings to account for the quality of players that a given player plays with and against.
82games doesn't have the guts of the Roland Rating available to the public, but it's not a secret that their plus-minus rating evolved to account for the contributions of teammates. Adjusted plus-minus takes it a step further with teammates and opponents.
by hscs on
Apr 7, 2008 4:15 PM CDT
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hmm
by Parrotman on
Apr 7, 2008 5:54 PM CDT
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Roland Rating
60% * Net PER + 40% * Net +/- = Roland Rating
Basically the Net PER factor is a quick and dirty approximation for accounting for teammates.
In that respect, it's pretty good, although I'm pretty skeptical about the whole "defensive PER" thing because I really have no idea how things are matched up properly. Consider the Gordon-Hinrich backourt. Defensively Hinrich typically (but not always) guards an opposing SG and Gordon guards an opposing PG, but they switch roles offensively.
Without actually watching and charting the games, I think almost any result is going to have a very significant error to it.
by Sports2 on
Apr 7, 2008 8:16 PM CDT
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How does PER
by Parrotman on
Apr 7, 2008 11:16 PM CDT
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Don't think it does
by Sports2 on
Apr 7, 2008 11:20 PM CDT
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yup
by hscs on
Apr 8, 2008 8:22 AM CDT
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net +/-
by Parrotman on
Apr 8, 2008 9:31 AM CDT
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think of it this way
by hscs on
Apr 8, 2008 9:53 AM CDT
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Well
by Parrotman on
Apr 8, 2008 12:07 PM CDT
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you need to explain yourself better
I'm not trying to pit one stat against another stat. I'm not good at math, and John Hollinger is a lot smarter than me. It's all about how you use the things. With some sense, usually.
by hscs on
Apr 8, 2008 12:31 PM CDT
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Umm...
by Parrotman on
Apr 8, 2008 1:32 PM CDT
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heh
I'm still not sure how they do oPER besides some hard-core game-charting. If it's just parsing game logs and matching up by expected positions, then yes it's not the most accurate.
But it seems any way to try and 'adjust' raw +/- is a step in the right direction.
Until then, the way to go is looking at 5-man units.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 7, 2008 11:59 PM CDT
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Disagree
When I think about it, it's more likely to me that it leads to systematic errors and the appearance of precision than actually uncovering anything.
When I look at the Bulls, it's just a confusing mess.
Looking at the players' play by position and 5 man units you can make some extrapolations, and they don't confirm what I see with my eyes.
Hinrich has played 48% of the PG minutes and 12% of the SG minutes. Gordon's played 44% of the SG minutes and 12% of the PG minutes. Based on the 5 man units, one see that:
- Hinrich's "SG" minutes must mostly come with Duhon at the point.
- Gordon's "PG" minutes must mostly come with Hughes at SG.
- When Hinrich and Gordon play together, Kirk is listed as the PG and Gordon the SG. But in reality, Kirk often defends the opposing SGs and Gordon defends the opposing PG.
I take 1 to mean that Kirk's dPER as a SG is probably accurate because it mostly reflects his minutes with Duhon and Kirk can be expected to be guarding SGs when he's paired with Duhon. So Kirk's dPER against SGs is probably fairly accurate. It's 20, which is abysmal.
I take 2 to mean that Ben's dPER as a PG is probably accurate because it mostly reflects his minutes with Hughes and Ben can be expected to be guarding PGs when he's paired with Hughes. So Ben's dPER against PGs is probably fairly accurate. It's 20.3, which is similarly abysmal to Kirk's.
I take 3 to mean that, with some level of uncertainty, we can imagine that much of Kirk's "dPER as a PG" is actually Gordon's "dPER as a PG" because when Kirk and Ben are in there together, Ben is more often guarding the PGs. Likewise, Kirk should really be "responsible" for Ben's "dPER as a SG" because he's probably defending the SGs in that situation.
So you switch their dPERs, and you see that Ben's dPER when playing with Kirk should really be 16.9 and Kirk's should really be 19.3.
That sort of makes sense and sort of doesn't. Kirk's 19.3 dPER when we believe he's defending SGs with Ben is similar to his 20 dPER when we know he's defending SGs with Chris Duhon on the floor. So we have some consistency to say that Hinrich is bad defender against SGs no matter how you cut it.
On the other hand, you get a pretty big change in Gordon's numbers. Gordon with Hughes has a dPER of 20.3. Gordon with Hinrich has a dPER of 16.9 against PGs. That's still not great, but it's a pretty substantial improvement, and I don't see any obvious way to account for it.
Well, except to say that method credits him with some of Hinrich's defense on PGs, and to say that maybe Gordon actually does defend SGs more often. In short, all of this thinking about it just leads one back to the starting point. Without actually knowing the defensive assignments, there's just no way to divide things up.
I think the problem is even worse than that, though, because often teams take unusual steps to defend good players in key situations (like San Antonio using Bruce Bown on both Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitski, and how in key stretches when we played them, they'd sic him on Gordon). Those are the situations, I'd think, when defense really matters the most, and in those cases positional analysis gets completely thrown out the window.
by Sports2 on
Apr 8, 2008 10:08 AM CDT
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there's zone defense too
by hscs on
Apr 8, 2008 10:22 AM CDT
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taking objective data
by Parrotman on
Apr 8, 2008 12:09 PM CDT
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Hey funny guy...
by Khalid El-Amin on
Apr 7, 2008 2:12 PM CDT
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You may be able to read, I'll give you that.
I guess I did that already, just not in so many words.
:)
As far as the Cherry-picking goes. Adjusted on/off court numbers measures your effect on the game when in compared to when out (given significant statistical basis i.e. minutes played) so it is in fact one of the best stats to use for comparing players.
Compared that to just using points scored. Then I might think that Ben Goron is the Bulls best player...
Get it?
by Bass on
Apr 7, 2008 2:55 PM CDT
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ok, that's the second time
Just a lame 'moron' joke? Bass rhymes with Ass.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 7, 2008 3:10 PM CDT
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fair enough
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 7, 2008 3:17 PM CDT
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That's good
by bullshooter on
Apr 7, 2008 8:43 PM CDT
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gotta love
I wonder what's next. Maybe "Hinbrick"..."Reinsdork"..."Jim Boy-I'mDumb"?
Those are some winners!
by NormVanBeer on
Apr 8, 2008 2:13 PM CDT
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