Comparing Deng and Gordon to other players at their position.
by shoryuken on Apr 12, 2008 12:13 PM CDT
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How much are Deng and Gordon really worth?
I don't think that Deng and Gordon have peaked as many critics are saying, but I do believe that their ceilings have been realized... and it's not that much higher. So how much money Deng and Gordon are worth? I think the best way is to compare their overall game to to other players at the SF and SG positions. So I made a list of players that I think are better players than Gordon and Deng, and those who are of similar ability depending on the team's system. This list takes into account overall 2-way game, not just shooting ability. I looked at height, athleticism, set shooting, off the dribble shooting, ability to beat the opponent off the dribble, ability to finish in the lane, ability to finish with contact, ball handling under pressure, court vision, passing ability, offensive awareness, defensive awareness, on ball defense, help defense, passing lane defense, shot blocking ability, post defense, rebounding, clutch factor, selfishness, and intangibles.
Gordon is among the best at outside shooting (set shots and off the dribble) and is as clutch as anyone. However, he lacks height for the 2 guard (and lacks monte ellis' athleticism and finishing ability to compensate), is a subpar ballhandler, can't see over double teams and traps, and is absolutely useless on defense.
Deng is excellent at the midrange, average at finishing around the rim, slightly above average rebounder in traffic, and sometimes is a good on ball defender. He also has good height and wingspan. He lacks explosiveness, speed, and agility. He is an awful ball handler, can't pass, disappears in big games, and can't finish inside with contact.
I listed players at their natural position (eg Marion is really a SF, etc). I also tried my best to leave out personal feeling towards players (eg I think Vince Carter is a pansy but he is still a more talented basketball player than Gordon).
Players easily better than Gordon at the SG position (Note: the order of the lists is arbitrary, not a ranking)
- kobe
- ginobli
- wade
- kevin martin
- iverson
- Roy
- Redd
- Ellis
- Carter
- McGrady
- Hamilton
- Jason Richardson
- Joe Johnson
- Ray Allen
- Barbosa
- Rudy Gay
Players clearly better than Deng at the SF position:
1 Lebron
2 Melo
3 Caron BUtler
4 Pierce
5 maggette (selfishness aside, he's still one of the best at finishing and getting to the line)
6 iguodala
7 artest (even if he's a headcase, he's way more talented)
8 josh Howard
9 Marion
10 Gerald Wallace
11 Hedo
12 Richard Jefferson
13 Tayshaun Prince
14 Granger
15 Mike Miller
16 Lamar Odom
17. Rashard lewis
Also while Deng is more polished offensivly, 18. Josh Smith, 19. Kirilenko, and 20. Shane Battier can impact a game as much as Deng in other areas. 21. Marvin Williams, 22. Al thornton , and 23. Kevin Durant all played well this year and have more potential than Deng.
Even if you disagree with a few players here and there on the list, it's clear that Deng and Gordon are currently not in the top 15 of their respective positions (and probably will never be in top 10). While they have made improvements in their games over their careers, they haven't made that huge leap that you normally see with young star players. It's hard to justify spending more than $10 million a year on these guys when half the league has better players starting at their respective positions. Unfortunately, it seems the Bulls won't have much choice but to overpay for their services.
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I don't know
by Kemp on Apr 12, 2008 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I understand some players are aided
Barbosa - He is an undersized SG similar to Gordon. Neither does anything useful on defense, and neither can play the point for extended minutes. Gordon is the better shooter but Barbosa is still a very good off the dribble shooter. I rate Barbosa the better player, because he is much quicker, has a more explosive first step, and is much better finisher around the basket. Yes Barbosa gets to play with Amare and Nash, but his elite quickness is not dependent on who he plays with.
Richardson - Above average shooter, excellent finisher around the rim (despite the injuries), bigger, stronger, etc.
DENG:
Danny Granger is already superior to Deng in every aspect of the game. He can take you off the dribble, hit the outside shot, and play defense. Granger plays with zero allstars and has Travis Diener at the point. Granger will be an allstar before Deng.
Wallace is better at every defensive aspect of the game than Deng. Also he knows how to board with the big boys unlike Deng. Offensively he's a not great shooter, but his scoring is improving. Wallace is the better ball handler and finisher in traffic. Wallace will never be the #1 guy on a team but neither will Deng. If I had a #1 superstar on my team, I would take Wallace as the complimentary player over Deng.
Maggette- I'm not really a Maggette fan, but the dude knows how to finish inside and get to the line (5 straight season of 8+ FTA/game). And as Bulls fans know, you always need somebody who can create his own shot and take it to the rim. His selfishness and defense are always question marks though. So I guess I would say he's necessarily better, but he's certainly not worse either.
Miller - Better shooter mid range and outside. Excellent ball handler for size with good court vision and passing ability. Miller has similar rebounding and athletic ability as Deng, but he doesn't do much on defense. But Miller is smarter than Deng and doesn't dissappear in key moments.
by shoryuken on Apr 14, 2008 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
shoryuken - good diary topic
Gordon is the only player we have now that can score at crunch-time, but he is too small to be an effective defender. Thank god he is thinking of taking the qualifying offer. $6.4 mil for one year is a good deal for the Bulls. We have another year to evaluate him. The other factor is that since we don't have another 4th quarter finisher his effectiveness has been neutralized by teams double and triple teaming him. In the April 3rd 101 - 98 win at Cleveland we came from 17 down I believe to win. Hughes had a great game. The fact that Hughes was hot noticeably opened up the court for Gordon and he was a huge factor in that win.
Deng seems closer to his ceiling than Gordon. I like Deng at the $7-9 mil range but lose interest as we hit long-term contract in the $10-11 mil range. Would we be better off doing a sign and trade getting a draft pick and a good player with a reasonable contract?
These are tough decisions. I don't envy Paxson having to make them.
by chgobr on Apr 12, 2008 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I am sorry but i disagree with you
Deng i think can expand his game a bit more. I think he can at least get better at dribbling to the extent that he can attack the rim without looking at the ball as he does it. I think he can expand his range on his shot(his midrange might have been off due to getting stronger and that often influences your shot) and become a 3 point shooter/mid range shoooter/ slasher. I think his defense is already fairly good, and with his age, he can get stronger. Though never a post option, i think he can get to a point where offensively he can work the post against players his size if need be.
Deng is taller then gordon, he still looks skinnier then gordon, and he is a few years younger then gordon. For those reasons i think he can not only add more weight to his build, but he can tweak his shot and become a more effective shooter from mid to 3 point range, and i think he can learn how to dribble alot better still and learn to play more in the post. With experience i think he can slash and move without the ball alot better not to mention play better defense.
This doesnt mean he WILL become better, but in terms of cielings, deng still has one of the higher ones on the bulls.
by piccolomair on Apr 12, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deng is an awful defender!
by GranvilleWaiters on Apr 12, 2008 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didnt say he was a Great defender
The initial response was a comparison between deng and gordon and meeting cielings. Dengs physique can ultimately help him defend his position (by adding more weight, he can put a body on a guy or deny him lanes, and being strong enough to repel most drives) while ben gordon, who will not become an average sg height anytime soon, will always have trouble guarding other sgs.
In that light, even if deng is a poor defender, due to his height, he still will have room to grow as a defender if he learns how to defend better and get stronger, he has the higher defensive cieling. Gordon, however, will never be able to protect his position on defense, so that makes his defensive cieling lower. That is what i meant...
by piccolomair on Apr 12, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we make this the official thread for this
Also, could someone explain why the Bulls don't have any choice but to overpay?
by bullshooter on Apr 12, 2008 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Some of us were just discussing this
http://www.blogabull.com/comments/2008/4/11/142120/986/136#136
by bullhockey on Apr 12, 2008 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Deng Overrated
Deng's problems is that his ballhandling is weak so he can not dribble through and around traffic to make plays for himself or others. He doesn't draw double teams or fouls, or post up often efficiently and rarely makes 3s.
Gordon's scoring ability is not the easiest to replace but the key to him is not to overpay as he obviously has ballhandlig and D issues.
The main problem I see with today's Bulls is no leadership. I have always liked Kirk but he regressed this year (lets hope for better one next yr) and doesn't seem to have the personality to want to be the leader of the team. But as far as Kirk goes his declining contract makes him a reasonable PG as top young PGs in league aren't going to be traded to Bulls. Hopefully Noah and Thomas could become main players, maybe their energy will help lead team?
I used to think signing Noc was good idea, but souring on that, as he really needs to become just a bench player and would rather have Tyrus and Gooden get all the PF mins.
by NY Chicago Fan on Apr 12, 2008 6:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
clutch
by Nocioni4MVP on Apr 12, 2008 11:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you look at the results of this poll
There is more agreement about Gordon. 64% think he will be in the 16 - 20 range.
To sign or not to sign and for how much? - that is the question.
by chgobr on Apr 13, 2008 12:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Like the post
Wade this year was hardly #3 SG when he did play. He had some offensive #'s but wasn't nearly the impact player of the past. If you are judging this when he's healthy, then I'd still have to pick him ahead of Ginobli, even though it's great that finally Manu is getting some respect instead of everyone always saying SA is all Tim Duncan and a little TOny Parker.....Manu's been #2 there for years and is nipping on the MVS (most valuable Spur).
On Shooting Guards, Tracy McGrady has had a fabulous second half of the season and is in some MVP runnings because of it (he had a lackluster first 2 months or so, but really has been a complete all around player). I know he hasn't won a playoff series yet (And most of those he was an underdog on, but it's still valid). Still though, Tracy is no lower than #3 this season.....
I like the Kevin Martin love, that guy is criminally underrated, but I still think that's ever so slightly high.
The rest seem pretty good after you make a few changes above. I'd say Gordon is far more valuable/better than Barbosa and Gay and Jason Richardson (2 of which--Richardson and Barbosa benefit from other offensive players on their team). Gay might nip at Gordon by next season if he continues to improve and Gordon doesn't.
For SF's, I'd put Lamar at #13, move Maggette down quite a bit (he'd still be ahead of Deng because he's fabulous at getting to the line, but he plays little D). I also think Tayshawn Prince is very much underrated. Sure his #'s aren't that fabulous but that has a lot to do with the Pistons defense, he's one of the best defenders at his position (if not the best).
Deng has the potential to be a top 10 easy--not top 5 ever--but I don't see him playing at that level next year at least, he needs a real boost in confidence.
by majoyenrac on Apr 14, 2008 7:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't ranking the players
by shoryuken on Apr 14, 2008 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I were Memphis
Gordon and Deng will never be all-stars, and I'd even say that over their careers Gay will have more raw all-star votes than both G and D put together.
by alec on Apr 14, 2008 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't want to comment in or on this diary
by hscs on Apr 14, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
Raw vote = number of fan votes. I don't expect Gordon or Deng to ever make an all-star game. I do expect that Gay will. I didn't want to compare potential all-star appearances, because I think it would skew too heavily in favor of Gay. Just to give G and D a chance, I suggested comparing their raw vote totals.
BTW--Pau got in while at tiny market Memphis, which is more than G or D have done at big market Chicago.
by alec on Apr 14, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 Merely Above Avergae Players
Deng has no ability to take over a game, his defense is overrated and he is too weak to consistently take it to the basket. He does have a nice jumper and can get some rebounds. Deng has no killer instinct and is, at best, a quality third option on a good team. He is Danny Granger without guts.
Gordon may be the most one-dimensional player in the NBA. He can score and that's it. He cannot handle the ball, play defense or rebound. I do believe, though, that he is a tough minded player who can take game breaker-type shots. His inability to hit game winners is somewhat based on the fact that every team knows that he is the only Chicago player who will take these kinds of shots, so he is double teamed, trapped, etc., making him less successful.
The bottom line is that everyone looks better when the team is winning. When you lose, you look awful. If I had to pick, I'd take BG over Deng because he has a more competitive attitude. However, after their mental collapses this season, I'd just as soon see both of them gone.
by Stay Chisel on Apr 14, 2008 11:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Deng's Value
I'm more than willing to have him back but don't overpay.
What I'm curious about is what people think overpaying would be.
Let's start with Deng. To me, Deng is a lot harder to figure out than Gordon. Sam Smith effectively said in a mailbag that he never got to the bottom of what the discrepancy between what the Bulls say they offered Deng and what he says he was offer. If Smith's not going to do it, I doubt we will. At a minimum, we know that Deng turned down $50M over 5 years.
That's a contract that pays out:
Yr 1 8.26
Yr 2 9.13
Yr 3 10.00
Yr 4 10.87
Yr 5 11.74
I think the fair comparison to make is with what similar guys who have signed long-term deals will be making (No use comparing to guys still on rookie contracts), and of course, what this year's similar FAs make (Josh Smith, Iggy, Josh Childress, etc)
Gerald Wallace $8.31M
Josh Howard $9.95M
Carmelo Anthony $13.76M
Tayshaun Prince $8.76M
Shane Battier $6.37M
Mike Dunleavy $9M
Corey Maggette $7M
Lamar Odom $14.28M
Mike Miller $9.13M
Richard Jefferson $13.2M
Peja $12.53M
David West $9.86M
Rashard Lewis $16.45M
Hedo Turkoglu $6.86M
Boris Diaw $9M
Ron Artest $7.4M
John Salmons $5.1M
Manu Ginobili $9.91M
AK-47 $15.1M
Matt Harpring $6M
Caron Butler $9M
When I look through that list, it's hard for me to say Deng is going to be significantly overpaid at $8.25M or whatever the exact amount would be.
On the other hand, how do we view those deals. Which ones are good and movable, and which aren't?
I'd say Manu, Howard, Melo, Prince, Battier, West and Butler would be considered easily movable.
I'd pay their cost and not think twice about it. Wallace, Dunleavy and Miller are more questionable. I don't think they're good at that rate, but they're not completely godawful (Dunleavy was until this year when he sort of broke out).
How do I feel about Deng? Well, he'd be making less than most of those guys at what he was offered last year, but not a lot less.
Mostly I think the "going rate" for decent small forwards on the free agent market is so high that it'll be hard do the sort of team building we need to do with him on board.
To me, the only workable plan I see is to keep as much talent as possible, that's reasonably priced, and then plan for the summer of 2010. The keeping talent dictate means we should try to keep Deng. Reasonably priced, unfortunately, is a relative term. The "reasonable" price for a good young SF is something on the order of $9M or more. If we're paying Deng less than that, it's reasonable in an objective sense.
At the same time, I think there's very little chance you can keep a player happy by offering him quite a bit less than he turned down. Without getting into the fairness aspects, that's a lot of face to lose. So something has to be done to give Deng an out in this regard.
So I'd try to offer Deng a contract that minimizes his cap impact then (in Summer 2010) but still enables him to say he "won" by turning down the Bulls initial offer. I think to keep Deng you probably have to offer something like $59.5M over six years. He can say he "won" because he's getting an offer approaching $60M and a longer deal instead of $50M (never mind he's getting less per year, we'll ignore that- remember, it's about saving face).
2008 $10.4
2009 $9.3
2010 $8.2
2011 $9.3
2012 $10.4
2013 $11.5
Total $59.1
I won't be totally happy paying Deng that much, but I think that's the going rate and I don't see it as likely he'd be happy here for less. If you look at all then and just think "screw it, he's not worth that", then I think your only alternative is to let him walk (or sign and trade him- for what?) and hope to play Thabo as our full time 3. I expect that leads to another trip to the lottery next year, which is why, other things being equal, I guess we should move forward with Deng.
by Sports2 on Apr 14, 2008 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I do think
I think $50-52M max for Deng is what I'd offer.....
If we're going over $50M let's give it to the one guy who has produced when we need it most (Gordon). I wouldn't go more than $55-60M max for BG, but imagine if we get a second scorer on this team, having BG as our mix of first and 2nd options depending on the scenario, rather than having BG as basically our only offensive weapon 100% of the time.....I mean Hinrich, Deng, Hughes, Tyrus, Noah, Gray, Thabo....they aren't scaring anyone on the offensive end. I recall Gilbert Arenas blogged about a trading Gordon and leaving the rest of the core (I can't remember who he was thinking of the trade for, but I'm fairly sure it was another defensive player that looked good on paper) and Arenas said, essentially looks ok for the D, but where's the offense.
Gordon gets no slack because while sure he's deficient at a lot of things, he's phenomenal at offense. Put him on a team taht has "get this surprise surprise" a second real offensive player, and I bet you those folks would LOVE TO HAVE GORDON. Imagine BG at the Suns, with Nash and Stoudemire....he'd make the Brazillian Blur look like crap. Gordon can score at will, he can shoot from all over the court, drive to get a basket, break through triple teams, and can get us wins. He often has to do that 100% alone.....and has won more games for this team than probably the rest have combined....
And yet he's hated because everyone notices his weaknesses, since his style is so far removed from everyone else on this rather boringly deficient team.
Deng is Joe Average at everything, and that makes him look better since he's able to be consistent.
Gordon is a below avg defender, avg at best ball handler (he is improvign here slowly every yr), avg passer (he is improving here too), deficient in height, far above avg shooter, above avg scorer, far above avg FT shooter, above avg at getting to the line.
I'd shoot for Deng to Max around Hinrich money, maybe $5M more because he's still young, but def not more than $50M....I'd prefer the trade. Dengs a very weak #1 guy, a still weak #2 guy, a good #3 guy, and a very good #4 guy, and a GREAT #5 guy on your team. $10M a yr for your #4 guy is slightly high, but could be achievable if we had a plan. Worth the risk given Deng's age and growth pre this season....
I'd max Gordon at $60M, but would aim for $50M to $55M for him. He's been our only offensive weapon for 4 yrs now, and while he's not uber consistent, he's asked to do too much. Gordon's a pretty good #2 guy, a GREAT #3 guy, a phenomenal #4 guy, and a lock down dynasty as a #5 guy, he's just a weak #1 guy. $60M for a #2 guy ain't awful.....it's actually pretty good. #55M for a #3 guy is also very very good.
I'd trade ANY bull for a superstar (yes even Noah and Tyrus and Deng and Gordon)....
by majoyenrac on Apr 14, 2008 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
More on my Deng blurb
Deng is Joe Average at everything, and that makes him look better since he's able to be consistent.
I meant to add that being average at basically everything (Offense, Defense, rebounds, passing, shooting, etc) makes you much better than just avg.
Deng is like the "Mario" character in Mario 2 from Nintendo, or the avg weight character (not the BIG Bruiser or small quick guy) in Nintendo's Ice Hockey, for all you, like me, kids of the 80s
by majoyenrac on Apr 14, 2008 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mario 2 Reference:
Toad is Ben Gordon, small but quick and can do alot of damage, not to mention has the best throwing range, he also has a tendency to fall down (holes).
Princess Peach is Duhon, a pretty cool charachter but also utterly pointless and you always wonder why this person even made it into this mario lineup, and why continues to show up in future mario games when it seems like usually this is the person that needs saving.
And Tyrus THomas is Luigi, can jump higher then everyone else but is kind of out of control and though many like him, you always wonder if he really is any good.
by piccolomair on Apr 14, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I look forward
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 14, 2008 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
'readinging'?
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 14, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does that mean
by piccolomair on Apr 15, 2008 1:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
I would hate to call her Duhon...Duhon's more like a weed that you pick up in the game (not the weird bigger vegetable things, but the other ones), they are in the game, I guess you can use them to throw at the bad guys, they are easier to throw than some other items, but are mostly useless for the game.....
But I'm done with memory lane....
by majoyenrac on Apr 16, 2008 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah good catch
by piccolomair on Apr 16, 2008 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOVE IT
Hope next year we can luck out with something. I really enjoyed essentially this same team for 3-4 yrs before this year everything blew up....and I like Noah too...but suddenly everyone else sucked...
by majoyenrac on Apr 16, 2008 12:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who would you rather have?
by tyrus4prez on Apr 15, 2008 2:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's a very tough call to make
by snley on Apr 15, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i actually
by Jaina on Apr 15, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Igoudala has a 1.7 advantage in PER
by snley on Apr 15, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
didn't mean
by Jaina on Apr 15, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My turn to apologize
by snley on Apr 15, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Igoudala
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 15, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
by tyrus4prez on Apr 15, 2008 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he turned down
I think he's earned at least a 60M payout.
$10M more for him then Deng.....yeah I'd still take Iggy, but we ain't getting Iggy anyway, we're getting a pretty good ball player who might still become very very good because of his age, but who I think will just be a nice piece to hopefully someday a winning franchise....Of course we eventually need a true #1 guy, the only one we've had in these past 10 post Jordan yrs has been Elton Brand and we didn't give him any time....
Since it doesn't seem we draft or if we draft we develop these guys, it's time to make a trade....next yr is yr 11 of a rather slow moving development in CHicago.....sure we haven't always been awful, but we've never been close to challenging for a title.
Let's make a major deal, even if we're 18 mos late (Gasol)...
by majoyenrac on Apr 16, 2008 12:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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